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Study. The computers are usually further apart, we got them together for this picture.
The first photo taken with my new Nokia N73 smartphone.
Health Map - The health scores are used against failure probability curves to derive a more accurate probability of failure, identify assets at risk, and in aggregation provide valuable input to asset budgeting.
Image courtesy of EPCOR Utilities.
I don't know what's worse: (a) that they have a probability exhibit at the Museum of Science in which the balls fall into an approximate bell curve, (b) that this Asian kid was so stereotypically fascinated by it or (c) that I (as an Asian non-kid) was so drawn to it. Man.
For some mysterious reasons this was called as the queen’s bath. But in all probability this was a royal pleasure complex for the king and his wives.
It’s a bit an assuming plane rectangular building from out side. But when you get inside, the story is different.
The whole building is made with a veranda around facing a big open pond at the middle. Projecting into the pond are many balconies. An aqueduct terminates in the pond.
The balconies are decorated with tiny windows and supported by lotus bud tipped brackets. The whole pool is open to the sky. This brick lined pool is now empty. But it’s believed once fragrant flowers and perfumed water filled this bathing pool. At one end of the veranda you can see a flight of steps giving access to the pool. The domical roof of veranda is a spectacle itself.
This is updated, given new improved arrival data. After re-running the parameter fit, bias is 22.4 seconds late with a standard deviation of 192.8 seconds.
It's important to note that though this diagram does display the instantaneous probability of a vehicle arriving at any given moment, it is not a probability density function in the traditional sense. Namely, one can't integrate this function over a span to find the probability of any vehicle arriving within that span. To do that, you have to find the probability of any of the individual vehicles arriving; ie the compliment of the probability of none of the vehicles arrive.
This figure shows how workers' effort varies with the shutdown probability of firms and the amount of government unemployment benefits. The darker the color, the higher the effort level. First, when the shutdown probability changes from 0 to 1, it indicates that there are fewer vacancies in the labor market and that workers are more likely to face unemployment. Because of this uncertainty, workers are demotivated, leading to a decrease in effort. In addition, when the government grants larger amounts of unemployment benefits, firms will offer higher wages to workers to ensure an adequate labor supply. According to reciprocity theory, workers will reward firms’ generous offerings with higher effort. While my project examines the effect of government unemployment benefit programs on the long-term relationship between workers and firms, this figure analyzes one of the scenarios, namely how this effect changes when firms face an uncertain risk of collapse. Yaqiong Luo (Economics)
Minimizing the Probability of Lifetime Drawdown under Constant Consumption. Angoshtari, Bayraktar, Young arxiv.org/abs/1507.08713 #q-fin
November 18, 2010 - "Roles for Third Parties in Improving Implementation of EPA's and OSHA's Regulations on the Management of Low-Probability, High-Consequence Process Safety Risks" - Penn Program on Regulation, in conjunction with the Wharton Risk Management Center, hosted a conference regarding the usage of third party auditors in the enforcement of regulatory safety measures in high risk industries. Industries which experts call "Low-Probability, High-Consequence," such as nuclear reactors, oil refineries, or chemical processing plants, are specifically hoped to be improved by third party inspections safety. The conference brought together numerous participants from a variety of fields, including from government, industry, insurance, academia, and non-profit sectors. The conference consisted of a day-long discussion spread over three separate panels. Over the course of the conference, participants stressed the importance of implementing a third party system to effectively and thoroughly audit industry despite lack of adequate funds and resources. Other potential scenarios offered for enacting effective third party auditing included making sure that these third party auditors were completely independent from the industries they would be inspecting so as to eliminate bias or a conflict of interest. Another issue to consider is the question of whose authority would the third party auditors be under and what kind of enforcement power would they have to enforce industry change. One of the panel discussions brought up the potential linkage of third party audits with insurance companies so as to provide an incentive for industry to decrease safety risks in order to pay lower insurance premiums. Workshop participants included Isadore "Irv" Rosenthal, a Senior Research Fellow at the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center; Howard Kunreuther, James G. Dinan Professor of Business and Public Policy at Wharton and Co-Director of the Wharton Risk Center; Laurie Miller, Senior Director of Environment and Process Safety at the American Chemistry Council; Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan, Managing Director of the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center; Scott Berger, Executive Director of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers; Don Nguyen, a Principal Process Safety Management Engineer at Siemens Energy, Inc.; Mike Marshall, Process Safety Management Coordinator at the Directorate of Enforcement Programs at the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) within the United States Department of Labor; Cary Coglianese, Edward B. Shils Professor of Law and Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania Law School and Director of the Penn Program on Regulation; Bob Whitmore, Former Chief of OSHA Division of Recordkeeping at the United States Department of Labor; Jim Belke, Chemical Engineer at the Office of Emergency Prevention and Member of the Office of Chemical Preparedness within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); William Doerr, FM Global Research Area Director; Manuel Gomez, Director of Recommendations at the U.S. Chemical Safety Board; Tim Cillessen, Manager of Sales and Marketing at Siemens Energy, Inc.; Mike Wright, Director of Health, Safety, and Environment at United Steelworkers; Jennifer Nash, Affiliated Researcher of Nanotechnology and Society Research Group at Northeastern University and the Associate Director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Executive Director of Regulatory Policy Program at Harvard Kennedy School of Government; Michael Perron, Senior Vice President of Willis Re New York.
A Russian map of the Styr-Prostyr river basin displaying infrastructure which is likely to suffer from floods with probability 1% each year.
Female Hummingbird IDs can be quite iffy. The other probabilities of similar species here are the Black-chinned and Costa's. Anna's has a straight, short bill and white supercilium. Its tail is reported to project beyond the wing tips but you need the ideal perspective of a perched bird to determine this. I also somewhat base my ID selection on the straight bill shape, but other local Hummers have similar bills. The bloom on which it's feeding is Parry's Penstemon, one of few plants here that have generous flowers in early spring.
IMG_9653; Anna's Hummingbird
John Bourchier d. 1349
BOURCHIER CHAPEL
The eastern part of the South Aisle is so called because it was appropriated by the Bourchiers as their family burial place. The first Bourchier to be connected with Halstead was John, who obtained in 1311 the estate of Stanstead and married Helen de Colchester. He was buried in 1328 and in all probability the granite effigies resting on the easternmost tomb are those of him and his wife with four bedesmen being positioned at their feet. A wooden shield painted with the Bourchier arms has been fixed above the knight, but does not necessarily belong. (There is evidence suggesting that this is a replacement dating from as early as the first half of the sixteenth century. No other such separate shield has been known to have survived.)
The remains of the tomb on which the effigies lie (three portions of two sides of a limestone tomb-chest with 'weepers' and shields) belonged to the tomb of Robert, first Lord Bourchier, son of John and Helen, and his wife Margaret, daughter of Sir Thomas Prayers. Robert was the first Lay Chancellor of England (1340); he fought with the Black Prince at Crecy and was ambassador to the French to treat for peace. He died in 1349 of the Plague. According to the researches carried out by J Enoch Powell MP the effigies lying under the adjacent canopied tomb are those of Robert and Margaret.
The canopied tomb with battlemented pinnacles and damaged tomb-chest is characterised by the style prevalent in the early part of the fifteenth century. They display the Bourchier Arms supported by an angel and a dragon. One angel panel in the front appears to have a scallop (cockleshell for Coggeshall?). If so, the tomb may have been made for John, second Lord Bourchier, KG (son of Robert) and his second wife Elizabeth, daughter of Sir John de Coggeshall. He died after a long and distinguished public career in 1400. Some interesting medieval scribbling on the western canopy shaft is gradually becoming obliterated. This records the names of important people connected with the parish. These include Colet (possibly John Colet, since the great tithe belonged to the Dean and Chapter of St Paul's), and Warner, whose family held the Manor of Dynes, alias
Boises, from the reign of Henry VI to that of Mary.
Another scribble close by reads 'John Worth, let be your nice legs'
although the last two letters are open to question. The Worthies held the Manor of Blamsters and John Worthie was steward to Lord Bourchier at Stanstead Hall during the reign of Henry VI.
Weever, in the seventeenth century, mentioned seeing in the church the much damaged tomb of George de Vere, which has entirely disappeared. George was the nephew of John, the redoubtable thirteenth Earl of Oxford who commanded the van of the Duke of Richmond's army at Bosworth Field. George was buried at Halstead in 1498.
I switched many of my traps to a triple trap arrangement to minimize the probability of escape, but the rat problem stopped before I got to see it in action.
Sunnyvale, CA
Edited British Library image of a kangaroo apparently conversant with probability.
Book title: Robert Greene: his life and works. A critical investigation ... Translated from the Russian by E. A. B. Hodgetts
Would you enjoy traveling? Traveling will bring you entertainment, education and adventure. x Below are a few ideas that will assist you have great traveling experiences.
Leave the majority of your items of value in the home. Should you bring plenty of valuables together with you, you do have a greater probability of losing them or having them stolen.
Preparing in advance is very important when traveling by air. Since major airports are often in big cities, getting there might take forever when you are getting caught in heavy traffic congestion. Get your packing done the night before. To minimize your pre-flight anxiety, plan for your journey well in advance. By being prepared, you may reduce the chance of missing your flight.
Produce a packing list. You ought to get this list around every week to your couple months beforehand so that you will absolutely really know what has to be packed. This enables you to pack only the things which you really need also it can also make certain you will never leave anything behind.
If you may be traveling via a smaller airport, check which airlines offer services there. Many of these small airports use charter airlines that you simply won't find when evaluating rates, and lots of times you can obtain a better deal.
Take into consideration cashing inside the traveler's checks you will need for dining or shopping. Although many places accept the checks, sometimes these are hard to handle. You will probably find yourself getting shorted if you utilize them, so play it safe and acquire the neighborhood currency prior to deciding to spend.
When traveling, you should wear shoes which can be comfortable and easily removable. You might need to take your shoes off during security checks. They should be comfortable. You will find a little walking on the airport, but in addition plenty of sitting, therefore they don't have to have significant amounts of support. Wearing sandals like flip flops or Crocs is a wonderful way to stay comfortable on the flight.
You have to be willing to plan your journey now. You could possibly will decide to go to your fun, far-away location. Hopefully, these pointers will allow you to hold the best trip possible. So just go and start exploring! visitcameronhighlandinfo.blogspot.in/2014/09/all-your-hot...
I made this photo more than 2 years ago when I was learning for a test from probability and statistic... Photo risen from boredom :) Taken on borrowed PowerShot.
Ruth's portrait.
“The probability of separate worlds meeting is very small. The lure of it is immense. We send starships. We fall in love.”
—Jeanette Winterson, Gut Symmetries
“Some people never go crazy. What truly horrible lives they must lead.”
—Charles Bukowsk
“If the world was truly a rational place, men would ride sidesaddle.”
—Rita Mae Brown
“When all is said and done, all we have to offer one another is a welcome in each other’s messy nest.” -Annie Lamott
"Love remains forever that part of life we can never control. As Bruckner says, it continues to resist indoctrination and ideology. It does not yield to the inquiries of theory. The world has tried to bring it within the realm of reason and ethics, make it modern and progressive. Bruckner is here to tell us that 'there is no progress in love. It will always be a surprise,'" - Robert Fulford
*
1902—my mother was so tiny
she could have fit into one of those oval
baskets for holding apples,
which her mother could have lined with a soft cloth
and placed on the kitchen table
so she could keep an eye on infant Katherine
while she scrubbed potatoes or shelled a bag of peas,
the way I am keeping an eye on that cormorant
who just broke the glassy surface
and is moving away from me and the iron bridge,
swiveling his curious head,
slipping out to where the sun rakes the water
and filters through the trees that crowd the shore.
And now he dives,
disappears below the surface,
and while I wait for him to pop up,
I picture him flying underwater with his strange wings,
as I picture you, my tiny mother,
who disappeared last year,
flying somewhere with your strange wings,
your wide eyes, and your heavy wet dress,
kicking deeper down into a lake
with no end or name, some boundless province of water.
[Billy Collins]
Female Hummingbird IDs can be quite iffy. The other probabilities of similar species here are the Black-chinned and Costa's. Anna's has a straight, short bill and white supercilium. Its tail is reported to project beyond the wing tips but you need the ideal perspective of a perched bird to determine this. I also somewhat base my ID selection on the straight bill shape, but other local Hummers have similar bills. The bloom on which it's feeding is Parry's Penstemon, one of few plants here that have generous flowers in early spring.
IMG_9743; Anna's Hummingbird & Parry's Penstemon
Today was cool. In stats class we did an experiment on probability by rolling dice 36 times. After class Emily came an picked me, since she's back in town for a week we wanted to go explore again. It was a bad shooting day for. First I found out I had been shooting in JPGs instead of RAW. Then I found out I had been shooting on manual focus so I had to go and retake shots. We wanted to go to the mill before the sun light was gone so we rushed out a bit and I messed up a shot that I really wanted. It's whatever though because I love exploring, the pictures are just an added bonus. We went to Emily's house and picked up her brother Jimmy. We then headed to Home Depot for a few things then off to the mill. It got pretty dark and we left just to get stuck in half hour traffic. Bumpy day but not bad.
Jon Dorling taught Philosophy of Science and was specialised in the Bayesian probability theory. I googled, but could not find anything about him after 1997. As you see by his desk he was a bit of an archetypical chaotic professor.
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I'm scanning all my negatives and positives. Regularly you will see posts mostly from somewhere around 1980 until 2000. Most shots are made with my old Minolta's XGM and X300 with Kodak Tri X Pan, Kodak T-Max or Ilford HP4 and HP5 film, which I developed myself. I scan with an Epson Perfection 4870 Photo. Cleaning and some editing is done in Photoshop CS5. I will try to get all names and dates right, but apologize in advance if I don't manage: especially about the years I'm uncertain, unless a date is stated precisely.
The probability of pizza being eaten on day n against the number of drinks consumed on day n-1.
I really don't have good enough handwriting to do stuff like this.
The Frazer vehicles seen here outside the companies registered office in saltcoats, probability here of OAG on the service road and UCS at the rear awaiting one of the company DAY Tours
another space-like image but with a few nibbles.....thanks for looking....best bigger....hope you have a great week
This man in all probability saved a young girl (< 5 years) from a faith of certain drowning on the Truckee River.
I am late to write my blog in the RGJ.COM.. but here is the jest of the event.
On or about 7:00 p.m. July 8 at the Rollin' Along the River Concert.. two girls were in the Truckee River by accident or by chance.
All I saw was two girls floating downstream in the fast flowing Truckee River. The older girl was rescued as she was pulled from the water at a logical exit point of the river.
The younger girl (likely < 5 years old) washed over the first rapid (the site of the Reno River Festival White Water Competition) and was in immediate danger of being swept over the second rapid about 70 yards further down stream. Beyond that point, there are no logical exit point for three blocks (Sierra to Lake) as there is a continuous 7-16' retaining wall bordering the NORTH side of the river.
Seeing the girl in trouble, this man, (later identified to me as ETHAN KILEY) jumped into the river from the West Street Plaza (walk down steps to the river) and swam the American Crawl like Mark Spitz (made up the roughly 15 yards head start) and plucked her out right out of the water. Amazing. Goose pimple moment. Happy happy happy.
At that point in the river, fortunately there are a few shallow spots and as big as he is (6' 5" or so) he was able to stand and raise her to safety with help.
This young girls were attended to later by REMSA medics.. This story can be verified -- TIME STAMP.. on or about 7:00 p.m July 8.
Ethan Kiley.. No Stanger Danger Here".. but a stranger as a HERO.
Life lesson learned here. Not all strangers are bad people.
It is often said.. people don't pick the time to be a hero.. the moment picks you. Either you are or you are not. Ethan Kiley -- the moment chose you and you delivered -- unselfishly.
It was my honor to shake your hand.. and take your picture. Thank you.
The statue of George II in Roman dress is said to be reminiscent of the two statues of the king in London: by John Michael Ruysbrack at Greenwich (1735), and by John Nost the elder in Golden Square, Soho.
The year 1751 saw a change in the Market Place. On 9 July the present statue of George II was unveiled. It stands in all probability on the very spot where once stood the Market Cross, which as we have seen was the place where all public proclamations were made and where the Laws of the States and Ordinances of the Court were promulgated. What became of this interesting relic of antiquity and when it actually disappeared must remain for the present uncertain. We know that the Market Place was paved with stones in 1668. It is possible the Market Cross may have been pulled down at this date whilst the work was being done.
An Act of the States of 30 years later, dated 22 March 1698, already cited as ordering the removal of "La Cage", refers to the erection in the Market Place of a pedestal which was to support a dial. It was to be fixed on a spot in front of the house of Clement Chevalier, the property formerly occupied by the Chronique Newspaper, and the Act of the States informs us that it was to be an ornament to the Market Place. There is no indication in the Rolls that this pedestal and dial were to replace the old Market Cross, and whether the pedestal was ever erected must remain doubtful, for 23 years later on 21 December 1720, we find the States entering into an agreement with a certain Edouard Le Preveu to erect in the Market Place at such spot as would be found most convenient for the public use a column or pillar with pedestal of the Tuscan type, "Une colonne avec un piedestal de l'ordre Toscan."
The column was to support a globe. That this column was never erected is quite certain for, on 7 November 1748, we find the States deciding to sue Daniel Le Preveu, a son of Edouard Le Preveu, to execute the agreement which his father had entered into with them. Daniel Le Preveu thereupon was permitted to resign his agreement in favour of one Abraham Gosset, who undertook to carry out its provisions. A couple of years later on 2 June 1750, Gosset was present at a meeting of the States and suggested that instead of constructing a Pyramid in the Market Place, he be permitted to erect a statue of HM King George II, the Statue to be of lead and to be gilded, whilst the pedestal was to be encircled by an iron railing " balustrade", which was also to be gilded.
The States agreed, and on 9 July 1751, the statue was unveiled in the presence of the Lieutenant-Governor, the Militia and a large concourse of the inhabitants. The Deputy-Viscount proclaimed the statue to be erected in honour of HM King George II. The people then gave three cheers and at a signal given from the Church Tower the guns of Elizabeth Castle fired a Royal Salute, answered by a feu-de-joie, from the Militia in the Market Place. Then were brought on the scene many bottles of wine and the King's health was drunk by all the company present. In the evening there was a general illumination of the Town.
Visitor's impression
Diary of a Visit to Jersey September 1798, by William Taylor Morley
At the head of the Market Place, upon a pedestal, stands a gilded statue intended to represent George II - the attitude of which is so graceless, and the countenance so unlike, that it has been found necessary to inscribe upon the stone the name of the personage it was meant to exhibit. The fact is - the States of the Island were duped by an old gentleman of the name of Gosset, who wanting a piece of ground to render a house he was building more commodious - offered, for the grant of it, a statue of His Majesty to adorn the publick square. The proposal was accepted and the figure was brought over from England. The site had been previously prepared, and iron rails placed round, to keep off the rude hands of curiosity. A day was fixed for displaying to the Inhabitants the brazen image of their Monarch - it was conveyed to its eminent station under the inscrutable cover of a blanket - the publick eye became eager to behold the Royal Effigy - the signal was given and the veil withdrawn - when instead of the British King - Jersey had conspicuously placed in its capital - the statue of a Roman Emperor.
Mr Gosset - the patriotic donor conceiving that his countrymen might be easily duped, and he perform, at a cheap rate, his part of the contract, purchased this old figure of Julius Caesar at a sale, for its weight in lead, and added to its ancient dress the decoration of the Garter - as a sure insignium of the expected Monarch - and a certain proof against discovery. But a lady who had recently returned from Rome, visiting the island soon after the erection of this valuable treasure, recognised, to the great mortification of the natives, the "very stamp and image" of her old friend in the Capitol.
The ceremony
Official order for the ceremony of erecting the statue on 9 July 1751
A Squadron of Horse with a Captain's Cornet, Quartermaster and thirty Troopers to parade by the Black Rocks at nine a clock in the morning and the five Companies of Fuseliers parade at the same hour and place, each Company to be made up 48 good men out of their Regiments. The Estate of the Island to be assembled the same morning at ten a clock at Mr D'Auvergne's house with the Officers of the Garrison and Gentlemen of the Island who please to attend. As soon as they are assembled notice to be given to the Squadron to begin their March with sword drawn and trumpet sounding, to march up through the Great Street, followed by the four following Companies of Fuseliers, Colonel Marett first, Colonel Le Geyt next, Colonel la Haute next, then Colonel Poingdestre. As soon as this Company is marched through the gate, the Sergeant and 12 men with their Halbards care to form four in a Rank and March about 20 paces behind them. The Denonciator is to follow carrying the Mace before the Lieut-Governor, Lieut-Bailiff and Jurats who are to march two and two, then the Clergy and Constables in the same manner, then the officers of the Garrison two and two and the Gentlemen of the Island in the same manner; in the rear of al1 marchers, Col des Augrès' Company.
The Squadron is to draw up in a Rank centiur behind the Pedestal. Col Marett and Col Le Geyt's Company are to draw up on the right of the pedestal facing the Court House, the other two Companies are to draw up opposite to them and face Mr Patriarche's Buildings; leaving a wide lane; when the Lieut-Governor, Lieut-Bailiff and Estates of the Island come in the middle of the lane of soldiers, they are to file off and range themselves in a single line in the front of the Militia upon the right of the statue, facing the Court House. The Officers of the Garrison with the Gentlemen of the Island are to do the same on the Left of the Statue. As soon as this is done Col des Augrès' Company draws up in the Interval of the Lane facing the Statue. N.B. As soon as the Lieutenant Gouvernor, Lt. Bailiff come into the Lane the men are to rest their arms, drums beat, the Officers salute. The Sergeant and twelve men with the Halbards are to march strait forwards and when they come near the Pedestal, they are to file and place themselves six on each side of the pedestal with their arms ordered. As soon as Col des Augrès' Company has filled up the part of the Square, the Drums are to cease and the men to shoulder; then the case of the Statue is to be taken off, which when done the Deputy Viscount is to proclaim aloud that this statue is erected in honour of his Sacred Majesty King George II, whom God long preserve to reign over us. Then a signal is to be made from the top of the Church to the Castle, on which seven canons are to be fired and followed by a volley from the Companies of Fuseliers; then seven canons more and the third volley. After which if they please His Majesty's health may be drunk and then the procession march back to Mr D' Auvergne's, first the Sergeant and 12 men, then the Denonciator and States, Officers and Gents; then the Companies of Fuseliers and the troops in the rear.
Gossiping Guide
The Gossiping Guide to Jersey by J Bertrand Payne (1863)
Nearly opposite, on a square granite pedestal, is a Romanesque statue, christened by the title of George II. It stands on the site of the old Market Cross, or "High Stone", and it is said to have been found among the débris of a stranded vessel, and to have been intended for a representation of some late Roman Emperor. The Jersiais, however, were very hard up in the statuary line, so they caught eagerly at this specimen, And in July 1751, had a grand festival, christened it by the name of the reigning monarch, and are now as proud of their solitary effigy as the tailor was of his hunch-backed child.
Doubts allayed
From Morning News (31 October 1910)
His Majesty King George II has come back to his own again, and once more graces the Royal Square with his august presence. For a long time there was some doubt about the identity of this statue, but this was finally set at rest by the discovery of certain papers shewing that the memorial was erected on 9 July 1751, in acknowledgement of the King’s donation to the Jersey Harbour Fund. How much did he give? Not much, we fear, for he was terribly avaricious. Moreover, the designer of the statue must have been a gross flatterer, for the fierce historic light that beats on Royalty, both contemporaneous and modern, shews him to have been a podgy little monarch with nothing of the majestic about him.
At the time of the erection of our statue, George was 68 years old: he was the last foreigner by birth who has held the English throne. He despised "Bainting and Boetry", and was grossly immoral in his private life, but he had many redeeming points. As White, the historian, says: "He did not trick or quibble, and was more useful and more safe in those days of political immorality than if he dad greater abilities." His personal bravery was conspicuous, he distinguished himself at Oudenarde as a volunteer, at Dettingen as a sovereign. He deserves the praise of posterity for the firmness of his principle and fidelity to the terms on which he ascended the throne.
Though his cousin, the terrible King of Prussia (who used to beat his daughter, and wished to behead his son) satirically called George II "my brother the comedian" and though his low amours and debauchery were contemptible and ludicrous, he always loved and respected his good Queen Caroline. Says Carlyle: "There is something stoically tragic in the history of Caroline with her flighty vapouring little King. Seldom had foolish husband so wise a wife."
Caesar with garter?
From the Evening Post (24 April 1930)
A Caesar with the Order of the Garter!
There is probably no statue in Europe which has been held up to more ridicule and derision than the one that has occupied a prominent position in the Royal Square, the reason being, no doubt, that its origin has been somewhat of an enigma; so much so, indeed, that even today there are to be found people - prominent people - who tenaciously hold on to the view that many years ago the loyal inhabitants of Jersey, desirous of honouring His Most Gracious Majesty King George II, and not having a real statue to hand, conceived the idea of using an old ship's figurehead, which had been picked up on the beach, concluding, no doubt, that any old thing would do.
As the statue is made of lead, the absurdity of this idea needs no emphasis. Lead statues, usually of a classical nature, were considered highly decorative and desirable objects of art during the 17th and 18th centuries. A nobleman's park was incomplete until it bristled with them. A statue such as that in our Square was quite in keeping with the tastes of the day, and the subtle flattery of depicting King George II as a Caesar went, as will be seen later, straight to the heart - and purse - of that valiant little monarch.
To the many who wonder why King George should be represented as a Roman Imperator, one must reply that fashion, then as now, blinded men's eyes to absurdities. Just as tomb epitaphs had to be composed in the pompous and pedantic Latin of Oxford, so had the worthies, whom the epitaphs described, to be decked out in the guise of the ancient Roman.
Most of our readers who have visited Westminster Abbey Church, will recall the long array of our English Admirals, Generals, orators and statesmen who have been treated in this silly manner. How many Jerseymen know that our own Peirson, in our own Town Church, is also a Roman?
We are now able to offer definite proof that the statue was made to the order of the States of the Island, was duly erected in the Royal Square and was unveiled with all the éclat befitting the occasion on 9 July 1751.
Restoration
In 1998 the statue of George II was removed for restoration, having deteriorated to such an alarming degree that scaffolding props were required. The statue finally returned to the Royal Square in 1999 and was revealed to be one of the finest surviving examples of lead sculpture in the British Isles.
In removing 37 layers of material, which had built up since the statue was sculpted by John Cheere in 1751, restorers Janet and Andrew Naylor exposed fine detail which had not been visible for 200 years.
Warning - High probability you will get wet!
Taken at Mevagissey Harbour Pier -high tide.
Decided to stop off after Heligan to see what Mevagissey had to offer, and were treated to a show by Nature -the high tide waves were particularly strong thanks to a strong westerly wind and got to see a number of Huge breakers as a result - this one wasn't even particularly big but it shows the town behind it.
work break! don't tell The Suits odin was running around on the roof of the tool shed. haha. just kidding. there are no suits.
Nativity of the Virgin
Date ca. 1480
Made in Lower Franconia, Germany
In all probability this unusual sculpture of the recumbent Saint Anne lying on the birthing bed with the swaddled Virgin Mary came from the predella (lower section) of the late gothic altarpiece dedicated to Saint Anne in the parish church at Ebern. This altarpiece was dismantled in 1703 and replaced with a Baroque one. Although the Nativity sculpture was retained, the legs, head- and tailboards of the bed were subsequently cut away, presumably to fit the sculpture into a different framework. Likewise, as evidenced by the two areas of bare wood in front of the swaddled child, two kneeling angels-probably holding a crown over the child's head-were also removed; remnants of the right angel's wing are apparent. The sculpture subsequently served as a devotional image, indicated by the many candle burns along the front edge. Much of the original paint has been preserved as well as appliqués simulating a brocaded pattern on the mantle of Saint Anne. Made of wax resins overlaid with a silver foil, stamped, and colored with paint and glazes, these appliqués were in wide use in the late fifteenth century, particularly in Germany. The pliant wax resin easily conformed to the complex drapery folds giving the sculpture a further degree of finish.
November 18, 2010 - "Roles for Third Parties in Improving Implementation of EPA's and OSHA's Regulations on the Management of Low-Probability, High-Consequence Process Safety Risks" - Penn Program on Regulation, in conjunction with the Wharton Risk Management Center, hosted a conference regarding the usage of third party auditors in the enforcement of regulatory safety measures in high risk industries. Industries which experts call "Low-Probability, High-Consequence," such as nuclear reactors, oil refineries, or chemical processing plants, are specifically hoped to be improved by third party inspections safety. The conference brought together numerous participants from a variety of fields, including from government, industry, insurance, academia, and non-profit sectors. The conference consisted of a day-long discussion spread over three separate panels. Over the course of the conference, participants stressed the importance of implementing a third party system to effectively and thoroughly audit industry despite lack of adequate funds and resources. Other potential scenarios offered for enacting effective third party auditing included making sure that these third party auditors were completely independent from the industries they would be inspecting so as to eliminate bias or a conflict of interest. Another issue to consider is the question of whose authority would the third party auditors be under and what kind of enforcement power would they have to enforce industry change. One of the panel discussions brought up the potential linkage of third party audits with insurance companies so as to provide an incentive for industry to decrease safety risks in order to pay lower insurance premiums. Workshop participants included Isadore "Irv" Rosenthal, a Senior Research Fellow at the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center; Howard Kunreuther, James G. Dinan Professor of Business and Public Policy at Wharton and Co-Director of the Wharton Risk Center; Laurie Miller, Senior Director of Environment and Process Safety at the American Chemistry Council; Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan, Managing Director of the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center; Scott Berger, Executive Director of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers; Don Nguyen, a Principal Process Safety Management Engineer at Siemens Energy, Inc.; Mike Marshall, Process Safety Management Coordinator at the Directorate of Enforcement Programs at the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) within the United States Department of Labor; Cary Coglianese, Edward B. Shils Professor of Law and Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania Law School and Director of the Penn Program on Regulation; Bob Whitmore, Former Chief of OSHA Division of Recordkeeping at the United States Department of Labor; Jim Belke, Chemical Engineer at the Office of Emergency Prevention and Member of the Office of Chemical Preparedness within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); William Doerr, FM Global Research Area Director; Manuel Gomez, Director of Recommendations at the U.S. Chemical Safety Board; Tim Cillessen, Manager of Sales and Marketing at Siemens Energy, Inc.; Mike Wright, Director of Health, Safety, and Environment at United Steelworkers; Jennifer Nash, Affiliated Researcher of Nanotechnology and Society Research Group at Northeastern University and the Associate Director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Executive Director of Regulatory Policy Program at Harvard Kennedy School of Government; Michael Perron, Senior Vice President of Willis Re New York.
Phylogeny of the ABCB full transporters.
The tree is a maximum likelihood phylogram, with Bayesian posterior probabilities (expressed as percentages). Support for each node is 100% unless otherwise indicated. Abbreviated species names are as follows; Hsap = Homo sapiens, Ptro = Pan troglodytes, Ppyg = Pongo pygmaeus, Mmul = Macaca mulatta, Mmur = Microcebus murinus, Ogar = Otolemur garnettii, Tbel = Tupaia belangeri, Stri = Spermophilus tridecemlineatus, Mmus = Mus musculus, Rnor = Rattus norvegicus, Cpor = Cavia porcellus, Opri = Ochotona princeps, Ocun = Oryctolagus cuniculus, Btau = Bos taurus, Ecab = Equus caballus, Cfam = Canis familiaris, Fcat = Felis catus, Mluc = Myotis lucifugus, Eeur = Erinaceus europaeus, Sara = Sorex araneus, Lafr = Loxodonta africanus, Etel = Echinops telfairi, Dnov = Dasypus novemcinctus, Mdom = Monodelphis domestica, Oana = Ornithorhynchus anatinus, Ggal = Gallus gallus, Xtro = Xenopus tropicalis, Drer = Danio rerio, Trub = Takifugu rubripes, Tnig = Tetraodon nigroviridis, Gacu = Gasterosteus aculeatus, Olat = Oryzias latipes, Csar = Ciona savignyi, Cint = Ciona intestinalis. Letters after the species name refer to the gene sequence, with an additional “l” indicating that the gene is not a direct ortholog, e.g., XtroB1l is a B1 “like” gene.
Pig and I went by the classroom today. I know, it's a Saturday in the middle of break, but I had stuff to do. Pig and I wanted to drop in on Bob, too.
When we walked in, we found Bob playing with my Polyhedral Random Number Generators (some people call them dice). At first I thought he was just playing around, but it turns out he was calculating probabilities.
He worked out the chances that, if he rolls a single die with x number of sides and I roll a single die with y number of sides, his roll will beat mine. I was pretty impressed with the formula he developed. After he explained it to me, he and Pig rolled off and kept a chart to see if Bob's formula held true. It did, but Pig didn't believe him until after Bob explained that each roll was an independent event and that the formula would seem more and more accurate the more they rolled. It took me three hours to get Pig out of there.
Probability map of vehicle arrival between noon and 2 PM. The Y axis labeling is backwards.
X axis: seconds since midnight.
Y axis: duration of wait, in seconds
Z axis (color): probability of vehicle arrival.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb the 52 year old Lebanese American essayist and scholar whose work focuses on problems of randomness, probability and uncertainty is the subject of a critical review from Michiko Kakutani in the New York Times for his latest publication ‘Antifragile’. Kakutani in the article ‘You Are All Soft! Embrace Chaos!’ states”A reader could easily run out of adjectives to describe Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s new book “Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder.” The first ones that come to mind are: maddening, bold, repetitious, judgmental, intemperate, erudite, reductive, shrewd, self-indulgent, self-congratulatory, provocative, pompous, penetrating, perspicacious and pretentious. …Taleb contends that we must learn how to make our public and private lives (our political systems, our social policies, our finances, etc.) not merely less vulnerable to randomness and chaos, but actually “antifragile” — poised to benefit or take advantage of stress, errors and change… For the most part, however, the author is way better at identifying examples of fragility than he is at laying out specific strategies to become more antifragile. Often the narrative hops and skips from broad-stroke hypotheses to personal anecdotes …Taleb seems to revel in being contentious and controversial, perhaps betting that such notoriety will win him and his book some added buzz. He consigns television, air-conditioning, newspapers and economic forecasts to the category of “offensive irritants.” And he talks about rationing the supply of information because, he insists, “the more data you get, the less you know what’s going on.” “Antifragile” is also riddled with contradictions. Mr. Taleb offers predictions about the future, though he keeps talking about the unreliability of predictions. He repeatedly attacks theorists and academics as the sorts of people who would presume to “lecture birds on how to fly.” And yet he’s an academic himself (whose main subject matter, his book jacket tells us, is “decision making under opacity”), and the book he’s written is nothing if not one big, hyperextended, overarching theory about how to live in a random and uncertain world.” Inspired by Michiko Kakutani ow.ly/gdCWq image source Sarah Taleb ow.ly/gdDij