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....when it was unrolled Alice could see it was some sort of building plan.
The builders had finished easing the plan into position and retreated to the pile of bricks. They all picked up the bricks and began throwing them at the plan, apparently quite at random.
Alice could see no purpose in it at all.
"What are you doing"? she asked a person who appeared to be doing nothing and she therefor assumed was the foreman. "You're only making untidy piles of bricks! Aren't you supposed to be putting up a building"?
"Ah, sure and we are, me darling", answered the foreman.
Alice felt that this display of optimism was not very convincing, put she kept her peace and watched as the shower of bricks continued to descend onto the site without any obvious pattern.
Gradually, to her amazement, the recognisable shape of a wall began to appear out of the initial chaos.
"How have you managed to do that? I am used to bricks being laid, one after another. in neat lines" she cried.
"Well now, that is not the Quantum way" smiled the foreman. "You watched us lay down the probability distribution before we began. Here we cannot control where each individual brick goes, only the probability that it will go one place or another. This means that, when you have only a few bricks they can go almost anywhere, but when large numbers of bricks are involved, it all works out very nicely in the end, so it does."
Alice in Quantumland. An allegory of Quantum Physics. by Robert Gilmore
Something this far off indicates a high probability that the fork was involved in a side collision. Before anything else, I do a thorough inspection. Any cracks, dents or kinks in the blades and brazing points (fork crown, dropouts), or a bent steerer tells me that a new fork is in order.
In this case, I couldn't find any reason why this couldn't be bent back to shape.
Sir John Sully of Iddesleigh/ Ash Reiguy 1281–1387 and wife Isobel who once lay in the north transept
John died in his bed in 1387 at the age of 106 despite having been "armed" for 80 years
John was the son of William Sully and wife Margery
He m c1330 Isobel dc1367 (The Patent Rolls for 24th April, 1330 say that John de Suly and his wife Isabellla described as the widow of John de Chaucombe, received a pardon for marrying without a licence)
Children
1 daughter (?)
(Robert Chedder and Joan his wife, appear to have been the possessors of considerable property, including the manors of Iddesleigh and Ashreigny in 1383-8 (except one acre of land in the same manor of Ash Reigny and the advowson of the church of the same manor) which Sir John de Sully then held for his life, and after his death on 15 days of Easter (12th April, 1388), 11 Richard II., it was declared that the same manors and tenements should remain to the said Robert and Joan and the heirs of the said Robert. - Robert Cheddre / Cheddar was in all probability the heir of Sir John who had made some previous settlement on him - Robert Cheddre / Cheddar m Joan daughter of Simon Hanham / Hannap of Gloucester having 1 son Thomas Cheddar 1442 m Isabel Scobahull of South-Pool . (Joan m2 Sir Thomas Brooke flic.kr/p/iNwbFv and were parents of Thomas Brooke, Lord Cobham 1439 )
Due to his loyalty and fighting career John was a favourite of the king and Black Prince being made a Knight of the Garter in 1361 on the death of Reginald Cobham www.flickr.com/photos/52219527@N00/748108213/
In December 1313 he was summoned for service in Scotland by Edward II and on 8 June, 1315, he was included in a summons issued by the king at Berwick on Tweed. In Autumn 1316 John de Sulle was listed as "intending to serve in Scotland" and also in 1316 was issued a summons for service in repelling the Scots at Berwick-on-Tweed. John was possibly at Bannockburn but no mention is made of this defeat.
In March 1332 John was ordered to attend Edward III at Newcastle "with horse and harness" for the Scottish campaign. In July 1333 John fought at the Battle of Halidon Hill and a few months later at the Siege and recapture of Berwick. In 1335 John was in John de Moelees company again in Scotland.
On 12 July, 1338, John was in France under the command of William de Montacute, Earl of Salisbury. John said to be aged 65, fought at the battle of Crecy 1346 in the retinue of the Earl of Arundel, and in 1350 was present at the sea battle of Winchelsea, . In 1352 John received from the Black Prince a payment of £40 pa to be retained for life in his retinue He was later appointed surveyor of game in Cornwall and sheriff of Devon and Cornwall but was unable to take up the post, accompanying Prince Edward to Gascony in 1355.
John now said to be 75 fought at the battle of Poitiers 1356, and 2 weeks after the battle Prince Edward increased his annual payment by 40 Marks pa. In 1359 John was still in the service or Prince Edward and took part in the Rheims campaign.
On 24 April, 1361 John was granted by Edward III once pa to have 1 shot with his bow, 1 course with his hounds and 1 chase for his dog "Bercellette" in any of the royal forests, parks or chases in the realm. John accompanied Prince Edward to Aquitaine in 1363 and was present at the battle of Nájera 1367. John remained in France and received letters of protection in 1370 to serve in Aquitaine. After the death of the Prince in 1376 he retired to Devon
At last dwelling on his mortality on 19th August 1384, the prior and convent of Frithelstock, near Torrington entered into an engagement to celebrate a daily mass for the souls of Sir John Sully, Isabel his wife, William his father, Margery his mother, and Sir Henry Sully and Joan his wife, the grandfather and grandmother of Sir John.
On 2 July 1386 John gave evidence at his Manor in Iddesleigh, before John Kentwode, as John was unable to travel to the enquiry due to his age. John testified on behalf of Richard le Scrope who claimed to wear the coat of arms azure, a bend which was also claimed by Robert Grosvenor. Richard le Scrope had 207 testifiers including Geoffrey Chaucer, and Robert Grosvenor 149, and an additional 55 testified seeing the arms on battlefields but not attributed to any knight. It was normal practice to give an account of their lives and Sir John de Sully and Sir John Chydioke claimed to be centenarians. John claimed also that his father had lived to over 100 years of age. At the enquiry Richard Baker was John's esquire and had served Sir John for 40 of his 60 years.
www.themcs.org/characters/John Sully.htm
www.archive.org/stream/reportandtransa03artgoog/reportand...
Sir John died in 1387 at the remarkable age of 106. We don’t know when Lady Isobel died, but it seems likely that it was at least twenty years earlier. One authority says that they had a single child, a daughter. There is a mass of evidence in the National Archives, in the registers of the Bishops of Exeter, in diocesan records, in sundry other written sources and in many works printed after 1500 which taken together make a persuasive case that he was, indeed, well over a hundred years old when he died.
What proof is there that he might have lived to be over 100 years old? The single most important source of information survives in the National Archives in Kew. It is the detailed record of a case which came before the Court of Chivalry between 1385 and 1390 which concerned a dispute between the very wealthy Sir Richard le Scrope (of Bolton Abbey, in the Dales of North Yorkshire) and the slightly less rich Sir Robert Grosvenor (who came from near Chester) over the right to bear a particular design of arms – azure, a bend or (blue with a gold diagonal stripe).
Each knight called dozens of witnesses who each testified to the fact that they had seen either Sir Richard (207 testifiers) or Sir Robert (149 testifiers) wearing the arms at battles in which they had fought. A further 58 witnesses didn’t testify for either knight (presumably just declaring that they had seen the arms on a particular battlefield). Sir John de Sully was asked to “depose” for Sir Richard le Scrope, which he did at his manor in Iddesleigh (as he was “unable to travel because of his great age”) on 2nd July, 1386 before the specially appointed commissioner, John Kentwode. Other very old knights testified for one side or the other (a number were in their eighties and a few in their nineties, but of those called only Sir John de Sully and Sir John Chydioke were centenarians). Sir John’s testimony, or deposition, survives with 355 others in the National Archives.
The deposition, together with many other well-researched sources, gives us an idea of just how involved Sir John was in the big battles of the early part of the Hundred Years War with France, with Edward II’s Scottish Campaign of 1313-17 and Edward III’s Scottish victories of 1332-33. The deposition only mentions English victories. There were, however, severe defeats in both Scottish campaigns and in the opening skirmishes of the Hundred Years War – but aged ego dictated that they shouldn’t get a mention!
The Deposition of Sir John Sully, Iddesleigh 1386
“SIR JOHN SULLY, at the age of one hundred and five years and armed eighty years, deposed that he had seen and known the arms of Sir Richard Scrope, borne by Sir Henry Scrope (Sir Richard’s father) at the Battle of Halidon Hill (1333), the field azure, a bend or, with a label argent“.
He afterwards saw the said Sir Henry armed in the same arms at the siege of Berwick (1333); Sir William Scrope (Sir Richard’s older brother who later died in Spain) at the battle of Cressy (Crecy, 1346), so armed with a difference; the said Sir Richard armed in the same arms at the battle of Espagnols-sur-la-mer (the sea battle of Winchelsea, 1350); and afterwards saw the said Sir William Scrope armed in the same arms with the Prince (the Black Prince) at the battle of Poictiers (Poitiers 1356), and the said Sir Richard so armed at the battle of Spain (Najara, 1367).
Sully said he had also seen and known others of the name and lineage armed in the same arms in journeys and expeditions, with differences; and in his time he had always heard that the said arms belonged to Sir Richard Scrope by descent, who, with others of his lineage, had peaceably enjoyed them from beyond the time of memory.
As to Sir Robert Grosvenor, he never saw or heard of him or his ancestors, until the time of his examination”
Sir John’s esquire Richard Baker, added to his master’s testimony by stating briefly that he had served Sir John for forty of his sixty years and that he had seen Sir Richard Scrope and others of his lineage – Sir Henry and Sir William Scrope – bearing azure, a bend or in various “battles, journeys and expeditions”
The Deposition is an outline history of Sir John de Sully’s military career from 1305 until 1367, omitting only mention of his involvement in Edward II’s Scottish campaign. The probable reason for this is given below.
We know of one record (now lost, but which existed until the late 19th) of Sir John’s life before he first wore armour. This was a lease – unfortunately undated, but certainly from around 1300 – in which he is described as “lord of the manor of Ash Reigny (Ashreigny)” – by which a man called Gilbert atte Hole took over a small area of land in Ashreigny from Sully for his lifetime. This lease was kept in the muniment room at Killerton long before the Aclands handed the estate over to the National Trust. I have asked the NT Administrator at Killerton to see if she can trace it (it is quite likely that it was handed over to the Devon Record Office for safe keeping).
If we can accept that Sir John had been armed (worn armour) for 80 years in 1386, ie since around 1305, surviving national records, the Rotuli Scotiae, the Patent Rolls and sundry letters of protection, indicate that the first use of that armour in action was in Edward II’s war against the Scots of 1313-1317.
On 23rd December, 1313 John de Sulley is listed as “having been summoned for service in the Scotch war; on 8th June, 1315, he was included in a summons issued by the king at Berwick on Tweed “for service with horse and arms in repelling the Scotch”; John de Sulle was among those “intending to serve in Scotland” in the autumn of 1316 and the same name was among those included in a summons for service in repelling the Scots at Berwick-on-Tweed also in 1316. (I have prepared a list of the known sources of information for Sir John’s life which is available to anyone who is interested).
An involvement in the battle of Bannockburn in 1314 wasn’t something that any knight would want to include in a inventory of battle honours for the Court of Chivalry – in fact this wasn’t a list where any defeat should figure – and the whole of Edward II’s Scottish campaign has probably been airbrushed from Sir John’s CV for that reason. Bannockburn truly was the nadir of English military history for the 500 years from Hastings to the loss of Calais in 1558. The fact that Sir John started the Scottish campaign in 1313, and is mentioned again as involved in it in 1316 makes it is very unlikely that he wasn’t at Bannockburn in 1314.
The armour which Sir John put on in around 1305 and in which he fought that first Scottish war was completely different to that in which his effigy is Holy Cross is clad. That armour was very similar to that worn by the crusaders. There is a stone effigy in Iddesleigh church – probably that of Sir John’s grandfather, Sir Henry de Sully – which is wearing this form. It comprised a suit of chain mail called a hawberk which covered the body and upper legs and arms, and gloves of mail to protect the hands. A coif de mailes was worn over the head and a linen surcoat covered the mail of the body. Armour fashion changed down the centuries as ways of waging war changed.
A John de Sullee appears on a feudal proffer roll (a list of those offering service) on behalf of John Fitz Nicholas in 1322.
The Patent Rolls for 24th April, 1330 (the Rolls are State Records) tell us that John de Suly and his wife Isabellla who is described as the widow of John de Chaucombe, received a pardon for marrying without a licence. I’m afraid that Isabel hardly gets a footnote in the rest of the documents which I mention in this article! That the couple had an only child, a daughter (name unknown) is suggested in one C16th history of Devon (by Polwhele).
In March 1332 Sully was ordered to attend Edward III at Newcastle “with horse and harness” at the start of his Scottish campaign. He was then just over 50 years old, a “good age” in medieval terms. He fought in the Siege of Berwick and the Battle of Halidon Hill, both very rough battles and fine English victories in which no prisoners were taken.
In 1335, Sir John was again serving in Scotland, in Sir John de Moeles’s company.
On 10th July, 1338, Sir John received another “call up” – he was ordered to be ready to set sail in the company of William de Montacute, Earl of Salisbury. This was the start of the first campaign in the Hundred Years War against France (which was to last, on and off, until 1453).
The first big land battle of the war and one in which Sir John took part, was Crecy. He was 65 years old when it took place in 1346 and fought in the retinue of the Earl of Arundel. It was, of course, a crushing English victory in which many thousands of French and Genoese knights and foot soldiers died. No prisoners were taken in this conflict.
Apart from the Battle of Poitiers, very few prisoners were taken in the battles of the C14th or for that matter at Agincourt in 1415. As one essayist has put it: “The predictable fate of a soldier, noble or otherwise, who, finding himself on the loosing side of a fourteenth-century battle, failed to make good his escape, was not to be taken prisoner. It was to die.”
In the taking of Caen (in Normandy) on the way to Crecy, the “mooning” incident occurred. Several hundred Norman soldiers, in an act of defiance, exposed their rear ends to the English archers (the Scots, the traditional allies of the French, have exposed other areas of their anatomy during battle in a similar way by lifting their kilts). Many paid a high price for doing so. We can’t know, of course, whether Sir John witnessed the exhibition!
In 1350 Sir John was present at the sea battle of Winchelsea, another victory. In this engagement English ships forced a fleet of Spanish ships loaded with treasure from the French port of Sluys across thechannel into Rye Bay (off Dungeness), where they were captured. The battle got its name from the fact that it was watched by Edward III’s wife, Queen Phillipa, from what is now called the “Look-Out”, on the sea cliffs at Fairleigh, near Winchelsea (Sussex).
In 1352 Sir John entered into an indenture with the Black Prince by which he received a stipend of £40 a year for life (which was paid by the estates the prince held in Cornwall as Duke and is recorded in the “Council Book of the Duchy of Cornwall” – now held in the National Archive). This regular income alone made him a very wealthy man in medieval terms.
Booty was an important element of a knight’s wealth. He was paid a retainer by his lord (in Sir John’s case, the Black Prince), but a victorious campaign such as that against France of the 1340’s and 50’s, meant that a great deal of pooled booty was shared out between everyone involved with, as ever, the upper ranks benefiting most. Overall, ransom was far less important than booty, because so few prisoners were taken.
Prisoners were taken, however, and on a large scale, in the next big battle in which we know Sir John was involved – Poitiers in 1356. In this conflict fewer than 7,000 Englishmen faced more than 20,000 Frenchmen and they completely overwhelmed them The French King Jean II and a host of other well-born prisoners, all worth great ransoms (King Jean’s was fixed at 3,000,000 crowns), were carried with the vast spoils of the expedition to Bordeaux. Massive rewards were given all round – both to the big players and to the slightly lesser mortals such as Sir John de Sully.
Sir John was 75 years old when he fought at Poitiers. A fortnight after the action the Black Prince increased the pension-for-life he had given him in 1352 by a further 40 marks (around £27) per annum in recognition of the service he had rendered at the battle.
In 1359, still serving with the Black Prince, Sully took part in the Rheims campaign.
At the age of nearly eighty (on 24th April, 1361), Sir John was granted a very special privilege by the king. The document by which this was done is still in state records, the Patent Rolls. By the scroll Sully was allowed: Once in every year during his life, in any of the royal forests, parks or chases in the realm, to have one shot with his bow, one course with his hounds, and one chase for his dog called “Bercellette”.
On 23rd August, 1361, the first St George’s day after the death of Reginald, Lord Cobham, one of the twenty-five “First Founders” of the Order of the Garter, Sir John was admitted in his place, becoming (by date of appointment) the thirty-ninth knight.
This choice by Edward III, although he may have been heavily “leant-on” by his son the Black Prince, is evidence that, given that he wasn’t of noble lineage – and very few other members of the order were not of noble descent – Sir John must have both possessed some really outstanding military skills and have performed valuable service in other fields.
There are records of the Robes of the Order being sent to him on several occasions between 1362 and 1387 and the plate of his arms was still in place in St George’s Chapel, Windsor in Charles the Second’s day (in the ninth stall on the Prince’s side).
The last full-scale battle mentioned in the deposition – and as far as we know, the last conflict in which Sir John was involved – was that of Najera (sometimes spelt Najara and called la bataille de Spaigne in the deposition) on 3rd April, 1367. Sully was about 86 years old when he pulled his armour on for the last time!
On 8th June, 1376, the Black Price died, almost certainly attended at his death bed by Sir John. On 19th August, 1384, when Sir John’s mind had obviously turned to higher things when he arranged for the prior and convent of Frithelstock (N Devon) to hold daily chantry services for the souls of himself (when appropriate!), his wife Isobel, his father William, his mother Margery and Sir Henry and Lady Joan de Sully, his grandfather and grandmother.
On 2nd July, 1386, John Kermode, one of the commissioners in the le Scrope and Grosvenor controversy, went from Plymouth to Iddesleigh Manor where he took the depositions of Sir John de Sully, then 106 years old, and his page, Richard Baker.
Other deposers for le Scrope included John of Gaunt, his son Henry Bolingbroke (the future Henry IV), Henry Percy (a.k.a. Harry Hotspur), Geoffrey Chaucer and Owen Glendower. With this impressive array of people testifying for him and many others, le Scrope eventually won the case (although it took a full five years for it to go through the courts – obviously there were “fat cat” lawyers around in the C14th !)
In his deposition Sir John only mentions those battles where he had a clear recollection of seeing the le Scrope arms (in some form), in fact, in his deposition he only mentions English victories! There were certainly other battles and skirmishes in which he fought but could not remember seeing azure, a bend or during the conflict.
The armour type in which he is shown on his tomb effigy is camail or aventail armour, named after the big mail neck protection which was attached to the steel cap, or bascinet. A sleeveless mail shirt was worn which was covered by a leather jupon. Steel armour was worn on the legs and arms, with steel and leather gauntlets and sharp-toed sollerets on the feet. The next style of armour, introduced about 15 years after Sir John’s death, was full Lancastrian plate armour.
Why should Sir John de Sully of Iddesleigh / Ashreigney have his tomb in Holy Cross, Crediton.? He died in 1387, probably in a manor he owned in Sandford (which was called Rookford). This was certainly fairly easily accessible to both Iddesleigh and Ashreigney (where there are many mentions of Sir John in the parish records – he was patron of both benefices). Why wasn’t his body taken to one of his own churches? The reason for this must surely be that, in medieval eyes, the status of a collegiate church, such as Crediton as a final resting place was greatly superior to that of a fairly modest country church such as Iddesleigh or Ashreigney. Crediton was anyway chosen (though possibly not by him), as his burial place and what was once an impressive monument to him and his wife was erected in the north transept, probably sometime in the 1390’s.
The earliest note which we have of his tomb being in the north transept is in the will of Thomas Barton, a Canon of Exeter Cathedral, in 1415, in which he (Barton) leaves £20 in gold to Holy Cross “towards the construction of a new window, the raising of the walls, and for timber for the roof of the north transept of Crediton Church “in quo Johannes Sully miles jacet” (in which John de Sully, Knight, lies). This is the first of many mentions of the tomb in succeeding centuries. The battering and the moving round to which the tomb has been subjected down the centuries has left it far from perfect. Facial features of both effigies have been rendered more or less unrecognisable and the hands of each effigy have disappeared (together with Sir John’s feet and Lady Isobel’s arms).
Because it was sited in the collegiate part of pre-Reformation Holy Cross the tomb was probably roughly handled during the Reformation (from about 1530 – 1550), but it is likely that most damage occurred in the mid-seventeenth century and during the mo - Collegiate church of the Holy Cross and the Mother of Him who hung thereon, Crediton, Devon ve from the north transept to its present home.
www.creditonparishchurch.org.uk/history/sir-john-de-sully/
Julia&Keld www.findagrave.com/memorial/58133384/isobel-de_sully
Caffenol C-L, unknown (Ilford ?) 1980's 125 ISO film
Out of Robert's old rolls, bookmakers had few probability on 400 and gave 125 as a clear winner. Well, Chemistry decided the other way round: 400 conserved quite well and gives decent exposure at box speed. In change, 125 emulsion and its paper reacted to give a lomographical compound.
Grain of paper AND number transfer, I think it calls for building a pinhole camera!
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Des pellicules de Robert, les paris donnaient gagnante la 125 à plates coutures. Mais la Chimie en a décidé autrement : La 400 s'est bien conservée et donne de bon résultats à sensibilité nominale. Par contre, l'émulsion de la 125 et son papier ont réagis pour donner un composé homographique :
Grains du papier ET transfert des numéros, je pense que ça appelle à la construction d'un sténopé !
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De los carretes de Robert, las apuestas daban como ganador el 125 sin ninguna oportunidad para el 400. Bueno, la Química ha decido diferentemente: El 400 se ha conservado bien y da buenos resultados a sensibilidad nominal. En cambio, la emulsión del 125 ha reaccionado con su papel para dar un compuesto lomografico:
Grano del papel Y transferencia de numéros, me parece que llama a construir una cámara estenotopica!
Up for a... Pepsi-Cola? So, anybody wanna crunch on the probability of finding an almost undamaged soda can from the 1980's a few feet off the beaten path on a fairly common trail? It can't be very high. Interesting to note how the sun seems rather selective with what colors it decides to bleach, what with the red being completely gone while the blue looks untouched. There's probably a scientific explanation for that, but I like to think the sun is being a bit of a jealous bitch that doesn't fancy other's using its colors.
I can date the can by looking at the style of the opening used and the fact that it has a recycle symbol. Recycling was introduced in Sweden in March 1984 and the can opening was redesigned in 1989. So we have an age range for now.
I might be able to get further info if I can find anything on the style of the Pepsi logo on it. At least I know it's authentic since it's got the "PepsiCo" and their Swedish distributor's trademark on the back.
EDIT: Looking at the history of Pepsi's logo, this one is the pre-1987 style, so that puts the dating between 1984 and 1987. Progress!
Also discovered that Pepsi supposedly stopped using the full name, "Pepsi-Cola" on their cans in the 1960's, so I guess the Swedish division missed the memo.
Projections from a computationally-based urban modeler. Scenarios for a densification strategy of the Sébeillon sectors of Lausanne. These scenarios include productive agricultural land as an integral component of the urban design strategy.
Bars at the bottom show instantiation sequence and size (in ha).
There are items on the bookshelves in our lounge, which in all probability have rarely (if ever) been moved since we moved in, the best part of a decade ago. I wouldn't bother asking why these model train items have been placed on this shelf (they'd probably be in storage otherwise) - suffice it to say, the loco (a 1980s Lima model of a "Western" diesel-hydraulic) and the coach (an old Hornby Class I, I think) haven't run on an active track in years. I wonder if the loco would even work by now?
The text with these is in no way finalized and needs to be cleaned up in all probability, but here's how the interiors of the book will pretty much look!
Let your retailer/book store know "PRESIDENTS OF THE UNITED STATES" has a diamond order code of: NOV084121 or that it's ISBN number is: 1600103448 if you actually want a copy to come in. You have to be proactive with these sorts of books or it'll never even make it to many stores for you to look through!
If all else fails you can always find it on Amazon here.
Hope you dig them.
Minimizing the Probability of Lifetime Drawdown under Constant Consumption. Angoshtari, Bayraktar, Young arxiv.org/abs/1507.08713 #q-fin
The best, playing with probability, is Tirupati. The worst, Las Vegas.
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The evolution of eusociality in Apidae.
a) The Bayesian maximum clade credibility tree of Apidae [13]. Posterior probabilities are represented by the thickness of the branches. Character state assignments of the taxa used for the ancestral state reconstruction of the traditional and complex social level character and of the 5 life-history traits are shown to the right of the tree (black = solitary, yellow = social, green = primitively eusocial, blue = advanced eusocial, red = parasitic, light grey = absent, dark grey = present). The character states do not necessarily represent the state of that particular species, but how that terminal taxon was coded to represent the state(s) of the clade it represents. b) Transitions allowed between the four behavioral states in our model-based ancestral state reconstruction of the complex social level character (Sol = solitary, Soc = social, Prim = primitively eusocial, Adv = advanced eusocial, and Paras = parasitic). The model was the same for the traditional behavioral character on level of sociality, but the state social was not included. c–e) Simplified version of the corbiculate phylogeny with pie charts representing the posterior probability of the ancestral state of the node for the c) traditional social level character, d) complex social level character , and e) five life-history traits.
Online help in solving probability problem TutorVista is an Online service provider which helps you in the area of mathematics education. It is an Online education provider which sorts all your doubts of maths and excel your career in the field of mathematical world. Today we are going to learn about the most important topic of maths that is probability. It plays an important role not just in maths but also in other areas of studies. It also plays a major role in our daily life work for example tossing a coin or population survey.
St Andrew, Halstead, Essex
The eastern part of the South Aisle is so called because it was appropriated by the Bourchiers as their family burial place. The first Bourchier to be connected with Halstead was John, who obtained in 1311 the estate of Stanstead and married Helen de Colchester. He was buried in 1328 and in all probability the granite effigies resting on the easternmost tomb are those of him and his wife with four bedesmen being positioned at their feet. A wooden shield painted with the Bourchier arms has been fixed above the knight, but does not necessarily belong. (There is evidence suggesting that this is a replacement dating from as early as the first half of the sixteenth century. No other such separate shield has been known to have survived.)
The remains of the tomb on which the effigies lie (three portions of two sides of a limestone tomb-chest with 'weepers' and shields) belonged to the tomb of Robert, first Lord Bourchier, son of John and Helen, and his wife Margaret, daughter of Sir Thomas Prayers. Robert was the first Lay Chancellor of England (1340); he fought with the Black Prince at Crecy and was ambassador to the French to treat for peace. He died in 1349 of the Plague. According to the research carried out by J Enoch Powell MP the effigies lying under the adjacent canopied tomb are those of Robert and Margaret.
The canopied tomb with battlemented pinnacles and damaged tomb-chest is characterised by the style prevalent in the early part of the fifteenth century. They display the Bourchier Arms supported by an angel and a dragon. One angel panel in the front appears to have a scallop (cockleshell for Coggeshall?). If so, the tomb may have been made for John, second Lord Bourchier, KG (son of Robert) and his second wife Elizabeth, daughter of Sir John de Coggeshall. He died after a long and distinguished public career in 1400. Some interesting medieval scribbling on the western canopy shaft is gradually becoming obliterated. This records the names of important people connected with the parish. These include Colet (possibly John Colet, since the great tithe belonged to the Dean and Chapter of St Paul's), and Warner, whose family held the Manor of Dynes, alias Boises, from the reign of Henry VI to that of Mary.
Another scribble close by reads 'John Worth, let be your nice legs' although the last two letters are open to question. The Worthies held the Manor of Blamsters and John Worthie was steward to Lord Bourchier at Stanstead Hall during the reign of Henry VI. Weever, in the seventeenth century, mentioned seeing in the church the much damaged tomb of George de Vere, which has entirely disappeared. George was the nephew of John, the redoubtable thirteenth Earl of Oxford who commanded the van of the Duke of Richmond's army at Bosworth Field. George was buried at Halstead in 1498.
Margaret Prayers
BOURCHIER CHAPEL
The eastern part of the South Aisle is so called because it was appropriated by the Bourchiers as their family burial place. The first Bourchier to be connected with Halstead was John, who obtained in 1311 the estate of Stanstead and married Helen de Colchester. He was buried in 1328 and in all probability the granite effigies resting on the easternmost tomb are those of him and his wife with four bedesmen being positioned at their feet. A wooden shield painted with the Bourchier arms has been fixed above the knight, but does not necessarily belong. (There is evidence suggesting that this is a replacement dating from as early as the first half of the sixteenth century. No other such separate shield has been known to have survived.)
The remains of the tomb on which the effigies lie (three portions of two sides of a limestone tomb-chest with 'weepers' and shields) belonged to the tomb of Robert, first Lord Bourchier, son of John and Helen, and his wife Margaret, daughter of Sir Thomas Prayers. Robert was the first Lay Chancellor of England (1340); he fought with the Black Prince at Crecy and was ambassador to the French to treat for peace. He died in 1349 of the Plague. According to the researches carried out by J Enoch Powell MP the effigies lying under the adjacent canopied tomb are those of Robert and Margaret.
The canopied tomb with battlemented pinnacles and damaged tomb-chest is characterised by the style prevalent in the early part of the fifteenth century. They display the Bourchier Arms supported by an angel and a dragon. One angel panel in the front appears to have a scallop (cockleshell for Coggeshall?). If so, the tomb may have been made for John, second Lord Bourchier, KG (son of Robert) and his second wife Elizabeth, daughter of Sir John de Coggeshall. He died after a long and distinguished public career in 1400. Some interesting medieval scribbling on the western canopy shaft is gradually becoming obliterated. This records the names of important people connected with the parish. These include Colet (possibly John Colet, since the great tithe belonged to the Dean and Chapter of St Paul's), and Warner, whose family held the Manor of Dynes, alias
Boises, from the reign of Henry VI to that of Mary.
Another scribble close by reads 'John Worth, let be your nice legs'
although the last two letters are open to question. The Worthies held the Manor of Blamsters and John Worthie was steward to Lord Bourchier at Stanstead Hall during the reign of Henry VI.
Weever, in the seventeenth century, mentioned seeing in the church the much damaged tomb of George de Vere, which has entirely disappeared. George was the nephew of John, the redoubtable thirteenth Earl of Oxford who commanded the van of the Duke of Richmond's army at Bosworth Field. George was buried at Halstead in 1498.
Albert Einstein (March 14, 1879 – April 18, 1955) was a German-born theoretical physicist. He is best known for his theory of relativity and specifically mass-energy equivalence, E = mc2. Einstein received the 1921 Nobel Prize in Physics "for his services to Theoretical Physics, and especially for his discovery of the law of the photoelectric effect."[1]
Einstein's many contributions to physics include his special theory of relativity, which reconciled mechanics with electromagnetism, and his general theory of relativity, which extended the principle of relativity to non-uniform motion, creating a new theory of gravitation. His other contributions include relativistic cosmology, capillary action, critical opalescence, classical problems of statistical mechanics and their application to quantum theory, an explanation of the Brownian movement of molecules, atomic transition probabilities, the quantum theory of a monatomic gas, thermal properties of light with low radiation density (which laid the foundation for the photon theory), a theory of radiation including stimulated emission, the conception of a unified field theory, and the geometrization of physics.
Works by Albert Einstein include more than fifty scientific papers and also non-scientific books. Einstein is revered by the physics community, and in 1999 Time magazine named him the "Person of the Century". In popular culture the name "Einstein" has become synonymous with genius.
There are 57 small boats in the seaport.
Possible cases = C57,5 = 4187106
Favorable cases = C5,3·C52,2 = 26520
P(A) = 26520/4187106 = 0.006333 (less than 1%)
(spelling mistakes not included)
(Pascal, fuck off, leave me alone)
from here www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152235.shtml?...
Note: The time of the tropical cyclone's center location at the bottom of the graphic will be 3 hours earlier than the time of the current advisory. The forecast cycle for each advisory begins 3 hours prior to the issuance of the advisory products.
These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 50 kt...58 mph. These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 58 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, ... , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 58 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended.
These probabilities will be updated by the NHC with each advisory package for all active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. While separate graphics are focused on each individual tropical cyclone, probabilities resulting from more than one active tropical cyclone may be seen on each graphic.
This mountain was once underwater. I kid you not. Well, that's what the notice says. The effects of plate tectonics, in all probability. (Davao, Philippines, May 2013)
Sounds obscene, but that's what they were called. They vibrated the ground to determine the probability of oil.
St Andrew, Halstead, Essex
The eastern part of the South Aisle is so called because it was appropriated by the Bourchiers as their family burial place. The first Bourchier to be connected with Halstead was John, who obtained in 1311 the estate of Stanstead and married Helen de Colchester. He was buried in 1328 and in all probability the granite effigies resting on the easternmost tomb are those of him and his wife with four bedesmen being positioned at their feet. A wooden shield painted with the Bourchier arms has been fixed above the knight, but does not necessarily belong. (There is evidence suggesting that this is a replacement dating from as early as the first half of the sixteenth century. No other such separate shield has been known to have survived.)
The remains of the tomb on which the effigies lie (three portions of two sides of a limestone tomb-chest with 'weepers' and shields) belonged to the tomb of Robert, first Lord Bourchier, son of John and Helen, and his wife Margaret, daughter of Sir Thomas Prayers. Robert was the first Lay Chancellor of England (1340); he fought with the Black Prince at Crecy and was ambassador to the French to treat for peace. He died in 1349 of the Plague. According to the research carried out by J Enoch Powell MP the effigies lying under the adjacent canopied tomb are those of Robert and Margaret.
The canopied tomb with battlemented pinnacles and damaged tomb-chest is characterised by the style prevalent in the early part of the fifteenth century. They display the Bourchier Arms supported by an angel and a dragon. One angel panel in the front appears to have a scallop (cockleshell for Coggeshall?). If so, the tomb may have been made for John, second Lord Bourchier, KG (son of Robert) and his second wife Elizabeth, daughter of Sir John de Coggeshall. He died after a long and distinguished public career in 1400. Some interesting medieval scribbling on the western canopy shaft is gradually becoming obliterated. This records the names of important people connected with the parish. These include Colet (possibly John Colet, since the great tithe belonged to the Dean and Chapter of St Paul's), and Warner, whose family held the Manor of Dynes, alias Boises, from the reign of Henry VI to that of Mary.
Another scribble close by reads 'John Worth, let be your nice legs' although the last two letters are open to question. The Worthies held the Manor of Blamsters and John Worthie was steward to Lord Bourchier at Stanstead Hall during the reign of Henry VI. Weever, in the seventeenth century, mentioned seeing in the church the much damaged tomb of George de Vere, which has entirely disappeared. George was the nephew of John, the redoubtable thirteenth Earl of Oxford who commanded the van of the Duke of Richmond's army at Bosworth Field. George was buried at Halstead in 1498.
This image is a video still from Kuhne's video Quantum Tunneling, to be exhibited in Night Light: Signal Flow
Quantum Tunneling
video + sound
Kadet Kuhne
2013
In quantum mechanics particles can, with a very small probability, tunnel to the other side of barriers - a process that cannot be directly perceived, but much of its understanding is shaped by the microscopic world. The subject featured in Quantum Tunneling traverses physical and perceived obstacles, into the molecular levels of consciousness.
We are thus witnessing the processes of both "coming into being" and "becoming," where the singularity of a subjective existence continuously births, shapes and reshapes itself as it interrelates with and tunnels through boundaries that are both invisible - quantum - and visible, informed by the socio-cultural interpretations. This audiovisual material invites us to interrelate with its figurations of the process of transvaluation, the change of the very essence from which we derive our notion of a value, in this case of embodied subjectivity on a subatomic - quantum - level, and enfold it into our own embodied subjective experience.
Bio
Kadet Kuhne is a media artist whose work spans the audiovisual spectrum. With the goal of forming somatic experiences which can prompt visceral responses to sound and movement, Kadet openly exposes the use of technology in her practice by employing fragmented, jump-cut edits and amplifying evidence of sonic detritus. This granulated, hyper-edited aesthetic, contrasted with spacious reflection, is intended to elevate tension between motion and stasis: a balanced yet heightened nervous system to reflect our own. Trained in jazz guitar, Kadet became attached to the instinctive nature of improvisation which led her to the California Institute of the Arts where she studied Composition and Integrated Media. Kadet’s experimental sound and video works - taking form in album releases, installation, film, performance, interactivity, 3D printing and 2D print - are exhibited and distributed worldwide. Select venues include the Museum of Art Lucerne, LACMA, Yerba Buena Center for the Arts, de Young Museum, Museum of Contemporary Art-LA, Armory Center for the Arts, San Francisco Arts Commission Gallery, Madame Claude, Contemporary Art Center Villa Arson, and the Antimatter Film Festival.
If you've enjoyed some of the images on this site, then there is a high probability that your pleasure is due to the efforts of Ben Brassington and his son, Eric, during the 1930s, 40s and 50s.
Like me, when you see a photograph, you might wonder who actually took it and whereabouts in Winster did they live. Well, wonder no more so far as two of our photographers are concerned, this is Woodland View where the Brassingtons lived. It is on the spur of East Bank which leads to The Flat.
It occurs to me that the modern owner/occupier of the building might call it by a name other than Woodland View. I cannot read the plaque to the right of the door. If someone lets me know, then I'll give the building's modern name a mention but it might still be Woodland View.
Michael Greatorex
iPredator Probability Inventory #Cyberbully PSA - Visit the #iPredator #Cyberbullying and #Cyberstalking website to download, at no cost, the IPI-CB by Michael Nuccitelli, Psy.D. NYC #BeBest - Link: www.ipredator.co/ipredator-probability-inventory-cyberbully
In times of crisis, such as conflict, natural disaster, or an epidemic, critical maternal and reproductive health services often become unavailable. For pregnant women, the probability of mortality or morbidity increases; gender-based violence is more common for all, while justice is delayed or ignored; and humanitarian actors try to balance a range of immediate concerns which don't usually include women's health. Join us as an expert panel discusses the challenges and interventions available to deliver maternal and reproductive health services and address gender-based violence in times of crisis.
Read more: www.wilsoncenter.org/event/addressing-maternal-health-and...
You ask a woman how many children she has and she says two. Then for some odd reason you ask her "Is at least one a girl?", to which she replies "Yes".
So what are the odds that she has a girl and a boy?
St Andrew, Halstead, Essex
The eastern part of the South Aisle is so called because it was appropriated by the Bourchiers as their family burial place. The first Bourchier to be connected with Halstead was John, who obtained in 1311 the estate of Stanstead and married Helen de Colchester. He was buried in 1328 and in all probability the granite effigies resting on the easternmost tomb are those of him and his wife with four bedesmen being positioned at their feet. A wooden shield painted with the Bourchier arms has been fixed above the knight, but does not necessarily belong. (There is evidence suggesting that this is a replacement dating from as early as the first half of the sixteenth century. No other such separate shield has been known to have survived.)
The remains of the tomb on which the effigies lie (three portions of two sides of a limestone tomb-chest with 'weepers' and shields) belonged to the tomb of Robert, first Lord Bourchier, son of John and Helen, and his wife Margaret, daughter of Sir Thomas Prayers. Robert was the first Lay Chancellor of England (1340); he fought with the Black Prince at Crecy and was ambassador to the French to treat for peace. He died in 1349 of the Plague. According to the research carried out by J Enoch Powell MP the effigies lying under the adjacent canopied tomb are those of Robert and Margaret.
The canopied tomb with battlemented pinnacles and damaged tomb-chest is characterised by the style prevalent in the early part of the fifteenth century. They display the Bourchier Arms supported by an angel and a dragon. One angel panel in the front appears to have a scallop (cockleshell for Coggeshall?). If so, the tomb may have been made for John, second Lord Bourchier, KG (son of Robert) and his second wife Elizabeth, daughter of Sir John de Coggeshall. He died after a long and distinguished public career in 1400. Some interesting medieval scribbling on the western canopy shaft is gradually becoming obliterated. This records the names of important people connected with the parish. These include Colet (possibly John Colet, since the great tithe belonged to the Dean and Chapter of St Paul's), and Warner, whose family held the Manor of Dynes, alias Boises, from the reign of Henry VI to that of Mary.
Another scribble close by reads 'John Worth, let be your nice legs' although the last two letters are open to question. The Worthies held the Manor of Blamsters and John Worthie was steward to Lord Bourchier at Stanstead Hall during the reign of Henry VI. Weever, in the seventeenth century, mentioned seeing in the church the much damaged tomb of George de Vere, which has entirely disappeared. George was the nephew of John, the redoubtable thirteenth Earl of Oxford who commanded the van of the Duke of Richmond's army at Bosworth Field. George was buried at Halstead in 1498.
A nodal plane is a plane between two lobes and the probability for finding a particle in the plane is zero.
1993
Photocopy, Artist's Book
Conditional Probability Problems and Solutions Hey! Here is a good news for all those students who suffers while dealing with math questions and are not able to find the proper tutor who guide them in math. An online math tutoring website TutorVista, provides all the lessons on every topic of math under the proper guidance of highly skilled and certified tutors. Queries on topics like probability always make students confuse because they have some randomness in the given detail to solve the problem. That's why online Statistics help is provided by online tutoring service.
November 18, 2010 - "Roles for Third Parties in Improving Implementation of EPA's and OSHA's Regulations on the Management of Low-Probability, High-Consequence Process Safety Risks" - Penn Program on Regulation, in conjunction with the Wharton Risk Management Center, hosted a conference regarding the usage of third party auditors in the enforcement of regulatory safety measures in high risk industries. Industries which experts call "Low-Probability, High-Consequence," such as nuclear reactors, oil refineries, or chemical processing plants, are specifically hoped to be improved by third party inspections safety. The conference brought together numerous participants from a variety of fields, including from government, industry, insurance, academia, and non-profit sectors. The conference consisted of a day-long discussion spread over three separate panels. Over the course of the conference, participants stressed the importance of implementing a third party system to effectively and thoroughly audit industry despite lack of adequate funds and resources. Other potential scenarios offered for enacting effective third party auditing included making sure that these third party auditors were completely independent from the industries they would be inspecting so as to eliminate bias or a conflict of interest. Another issue to consider is the question of whose authority would the third party auditors be under and what kind of enforcement power would they have to enforce industry change. One of the panel discussions brought up the potential linkage of third party audits with insurance companies so as to provide an incentive for industry to decrease safety risks in order to pay lower insurance premiums. Workshop participants included Isadore "Irv" Rosenthal, a Senior Research Fellow at the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center; Howard Kunreuther, James G. Dinan Professor of Business and Public Policy at Wharton and Co-Director of the Wharton Risk Center; Laurie Miller, Senior Director of Environment and Process Safety at the American Chemistry Council; Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan, Managing Director of the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center; Scott Berger, Executive Director of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers; Don Nguyen, a Principal Process Safety Management Engineer at Siemens Energy, Inc.; Mike Marshall, Process Safety Management Coordinator at the Directorate of Enforcement Programs at the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) within the United States Department of Labor; Cary Coglianese, Edward B. Shils Professor of Law and Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania Law School and Director of the Penn Program on Regulation; Bob Whitmore, Former Chief of OSHA Division of Recordkeeping at the United States Department of Labor; Jim Belke, Chemical Engineer at the Office of Emergency Prevention and Member of the Office of Chemical Preparedness within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); William Doerr, FM Global Research Area Director; Manuel Gomez, Director of Recommendations at the U.S. Chemical Safety Board; Tim Cillessen, Manager of Sales and Marketing at Siemens Energy, Inc.; Mike Wright, Director of Health, Safety, and Environment at United Steelworkers; Jennifer Nash, Affiliated Researcher of Nanotechnology and Society Research Group at Northeastern University and the Associate Director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Executive Director of Regulatory Policy Program at Harvard Kennedy School of Government; Michael Perron, Senior Vice President of Willis Re New York.
Extramarks offer the sample paper of Math of chapter probability. It contains all the solved answer which is helpful for the students to score good marks.
www.extramarks.com/ncert-solutions/cbse-class-9/mathemati...
Calculate conditional and distribution probability Friends, mathematics is a very vast subject which plays an important role in our daily work starting from buying goods to cooking. It is like playing game, which requires a lot of practice and hard work to succeed and become best in it. Similarly Probability is also a very important topic which plays an important role not just in maths but also in different areas of study like Physics, Chemistry, statistical analysis etc. Starting from tossing a coin to the population calculation probability plays a major role.