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ZoomCharts is offering data visualization tools to support speakers at Columbia-Princeton Probability Day, taking place Friday, March 6, 2015 at the Princeton University Campusâ Lewis Library, Room 120 in Princeton, New Jersey 08544.
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Columbia-Princeton Probability Day is free to register. Speakers include Davar Khoshnevisan from the University of Utah, Fraydoun Rezakhanlou from UC Berkley, Prasad Tetali from the Georgia Institute of Technology, and Bálint Virág from the University of Toronto.
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Let us explore more about queries on probability and Conditional Probability. When there are chances of occurring an event in more than one way at particular time then the term probability arises. It is all about guessing the number of occurrence of that event in respect of external environment. The term conditional probability adds an external condition which provides a certain boundary to the chances of an event happening and this external condition is provided by an event which is happening in parallel.
The following is an excerpt from 'the hitchikers guide to the galaxy' by Douglas Adams, because he's still my hero and I feel this passage is actually relevant in a number of ways:
Eddie: Probability is one to one, normality restored.
Arthur: Normal? Sure. We can talk about normal until the cows come home.
Trillian: What is ...normal?
Ford: What's ...home?
Zaphod: What're cows?
* * *
I'm sorry that this evening's post is going up so late. I'd like to insert an entertaining excuse, like we drowned in local mustard or I swallowed my phone whilst trying to take pictures of my hands. But in truth, the blog's late because, after we got here at seven and ate, dad went to bed and I sat around drawing pretty patterns to entertain myself. Yes, I forgot. Almost. But here I am, so wipe those tears away and let me tell you about cows.
In fact, i'm not sure how I feel about them. We pitched tent last night on the canalside next to a field of cows. At 6am they began to groan about the way they smell, or that the grass all tasted the same, or whatever it is that compels herds of cows to moo loudly for an hour on a sunday morning. Either way, we rode 25km to the next big town for supplies. We went into the only place open on a sunday, an Asda style we-sell-things-you-didn't-know-existed type superstore chain. And as I browsed for something with excessive amounts of carbohydrate in it that wasn't pasta again, I came across shelves of small electronic cylinders that emitted cow noises when jolted. Holding back my horror at the utter uselessness of such a thing, I shook one around a bit... Then another. I drew a small crowd of french kids as I jumped around shaking cows and laughing hysterically. The reason I found it so funny though is that, because the device has so many different tones of 'moo', I can almost see the production team sitting in a recording studio with a cow and a stick, prodding it until they were satisfied that they'd captured its entire vocabulary. That mental image is still making me giggle. However, back to the normal world, we bought our Piealla and continued toward Dijon on the dual carriageway. Our progress was slowed only momentarily when a nun riding a bicycle came speeding down the wrong side of the road, weaving gently past objecting cars. It might have been a entertaining prank, except that it was quite clearly a real nun who was quite clearly unaware of the highway code. We continued though, as dad's puns ("well she sure is putting her faith in the lord on a sunday") were drowned out by passing tractors.
We successfully reached Dijon this afternoon, against another depressing headwind. Every square had a stage set up, and live music filled every street. There was also, what I would guess, a sports car show, because everywhere there were Mustangs and DB9s driving about as though they were lost but didn't really mind so long as there was fuel in their tanks. The noise was fantastic, but we left the city quickly and changed our heading for the last time: NW. We're camped in rolling hills, some 25km northwest of the musical mustard and motor city, and this final straight takes us a little NE of Paris before ending in the channel in about six days.
The last word though is on today's picture. We pulled up to a set of lights in the Dijonion suburbs and I instantly took out the camera. What struck me about the 'do not cross man' is that, unlike the usual red-stick-man-standing-still, here there was a rather shady looking character, clearly depicted wearing a trench coat and a trilby, standing on a street corner. Designs for a black and white, 1930's film-noire american gangster film were accidentally mixed with those for a set of traffic lights.
They got away with it for the lights, but I would LOVE to see how the movie turned out.
Conditional probability When we are solving Conditional Probability Examples ,we deal with two events, say A and B , sometimes these events are so related to each other , that the probability will depend on whether the other event has already occurred. Conditional probability can be defined as the probability of an event given that another event has already occurred.Let’s consider an example for Conditional probability: Consider a card game, suppose a player needs to draw 2 cards of the same suit to win, out of 52 cards there can be 13 cards in each suit. If the first player draws a heart, and the player wishes to draw a second heart. If one heart has already been chosen, then we only have 12 hearts remaining out of 51 cards.
iPredator Probability Inventory #Teen PSA - Visit the #iPredator #Cyberbullying and #OnlineSafety Website to D/L the Free IPI-T by Michael Nuccitelli, Psy.D. NYC #BeBest - Link: www.ipredator.co/ipredator-probability-inventory-teen
Santa Maria Maggiore after Mass for solemnity of St. John the Baptist; taken with a Canon EOS 1v.
Note the incense hanging in the air after the Mass. A choir from a suburban parish sang an excellent rendition of Mozart's Ave verum corpus at this Mass.
The basilical plan has been well preserved. The columns flanking the nave are of Athenian marble. They were in all probability part of the first basilica, and are possibly reused from an older Roman building. Above them are mosaics of Old Testament history, which probably makes them the oldest Christian mosaics in a church in Rome. They were thought to be from the first church, but later research has dated them to c. 432–440, in the pontificate of Sixtus III. It is hard to see them, since the light is very dim. There are now 36 panels left of the original 42. Six were lost when the Pauline and Sistine Chapels were built. Some of them were heavily restored with paint during the Middle Ages, and some were reconstructed in 1593 and later.
Originally, the basilica did not have a transept. The reason was that the main purpose of the transept was to provide space for pilgrims flocking to a saint's tomb. In the case of this basilica, the main focus was not on a grave such as the Apostles' tombs in San Pietro in Vaticano or San Paolo fuori le mura; Mary had been assumed body and soul into Heaven, and there was therefore no tomb (there is a monument in Ephesus known as the tomb of Mary, but the origin of this is unclear). The transept was added by Pope Nicholas IV (1288-1292), and as a result a new apse also had to be added.
Part of the floor is in the Cosmatesque style, but the repairs have not been altogether successful.
The ceiling is by Sangallo, and is gilded. The gold used here is said to be the first gold brought from the New World, given by Ferdinand and Isabella of Spain.
The high altar is a papal altar, reserved for the Holy Father. It can only be used by others by special permission. The altar and canopy, are by Fernando Fuga, who also designed the façade. The sculpture at the high altar is by P. Bracci, made c. 1750.
In the confessio, St Matthias the Apostle is buried. He was the thirteenth Apostle, elected after Judas Ischariot had left the disciples. Above the altar in the confessio is a reliquary which holds five pieces of wood. They are said to be from the Santa Culla, the Holy Manger that Christ was laid in at Bethlehem. Pope Theodore (642-649) is said to have brought them to Rome shortly after the fall of Jerusalem in 638. The authenticity is uncertain, and it is thought that it might be the manger from one of the first Christmas cribs.
Behind the altar are three mosaics. The two on the arches were ordered by Pope Sixtus III in the 5th century. They were ordered after the Council of Ephesus, which had proclaimed that Mary was the Mother of God, and this is emphasised in the mosaics. In the one showing the Adoration of the Magi, the Blessed Virgin is depicted as an Augusta, a Roman empress.
On the first arch behind the altar the subject is the childhood of Christ. He is followed by angels, showing his divinity. Many of the scenes are from early legends about the childhood of Christ, rather than from the Gospels. The inscription in the centre of the arch, XYSTUS EPISCOPUS PLEBI DEI means "Sixtus, bishop to the people of God". This refers to Sistus III (432-440), who rebuilt or restored the church. The arch was originally an apsidal arch, but it was transformed into a triumphal arch when Pope Nicholas added a transept and a new apse to the basilica.
ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice.
Opening address
Measuring the probability of a financial crisis
Robert Engle, New York University
Is Schrödinger's cat in the box, or not? It depends on when you look at this linocut! This colour-changing thermochromic block print shows the famous thought-experiment of renown quantum physicist Erwin Schrödinger (who would never hurt a real cat!). Both the cat in blue and the poison in pink will disappear when the print is exposed to heat.
In struggling to fully explain the strangeness of the quantum world, which can only be described in terms of probabilities and wave functions, Schrödinger suggested a sort of metaphor, at the size of every day things - the scale of classical physics as we know it. He imagined a cat in a steel box with a vial of poison which might be opened if, and only if, a radioactive decay occurs. In one half-life of the radioactive material, there is a 50:50 chance that the material has decayed or not. So, if the box is closed, and we cannot see within, we can only describe the state of the cat in terms of probabilistic wave functions. After one half-life, we would be forced to describe the contents of the box as the sum of the half likelihood of a live cat and the half likelihood of a dead cat. It is as if, to the outside world, there exists both a live and dead cat.... until, one opens the box and looks. Then we know we either have not yet had the radioactive decay and subsequent release of poison, so the cat is fine, or the radioactive material has decayed and the cat is no more. So, what's so special about looking in the box? Does the wave function "collapse" onto one of these two possibilities? Does the universe split into one in which the cat lives and one in which the cat does not, as in the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics? I tend to side with Niels Bohr whose Copenhagen Interpretation of quantum mechanics says, as all experimentalists know, unless you observe something you cannot determine its state. However, physics cannot answer this question! We can determine the probabilities only, we cannot say why. But that's okay. Paradox is delicious.
This is one print in an edition of 10. Each print is made with the box and vial printed in normal, silver block printing ink. The cat and poison are printed using thermochromic powder and block printing medium so when heated above 30°C (86 F) then they turn colourless and disappear. Thus, as in the thought experiment, you don't know whether there is a cat in the box without looking at the print. Each print is 12.3 by 12.5 inches (31.2 cm by 31.8 cm) and made on Japanese kozo (or mulberry) paper.
The other day I complained.
It is a full month into winter on the east coast.
I usually mark its welcoming with making a snowman.
This year with the explanation of El Nino we had record warm weather during the holidays.
The El Nino joy effect has shriveled like most of my deciduous plants.
Its cold,bitter, and windy.
And there is a storm on the horizon.
Forecasters were guessing yesterday but now they are confident enough to name it Jonas.
While Jonas is a large storm that will bring snowflakes to most on the mid-atlantic, the specifics are as varied as looking into a glass ball.
Words being used by the meteorologists are predictability, highly plausible,honing, varying, ranging, gaging, and exacting.
These words with complete graphics show shades of blue,grey, or red.
And don’t forget the European model.
Somehow they think that particular version is very accurate.
And so as I went around throughout the day first to the tire store to get a sensor checked, the phones started ringing.
The employee talked about how tire sales go up right before a snowstorm.
Thick treaded tires were what people wanted even though those kind of tires are best for mud not snow.
He suggested to most people all terrain tires but they usually ignore him because the thick treads look better.
Needless to say the customer is always right right?
Onto the grocery store and there you had slow movement panic.
Every checkout register was discussing the possibilities of the storm.
I could hear the floor manager asking every coworker she passed if they could work a few extra hours on friday.
Much like anything whether it be a storm, the stock market, or other predictions that is not exacting emotions get involved.
Stay the course or rearrange your schedule.
The forecasters could be wrong but mother nature is always right.
You can’t predict much and even with all the models and technology there is still guessing of varying degrees.
Is there a high probability of snowman making?
Judging by the european model there is a high plausibility a snowman will be made varying in size.
The impact of infrastructure development on reindeer potentially threatens the cultural traditions of the Barents region indigenous people and their chosen way of life. The probability of impact on wildlife, vegetation and ecosystems is related to distance to different types of infrastructure. The distance zones of impact are lowest in forest and highest in open tundra. The extent of the zones are based upon several hundred field studies from international scientific journals. Impacts, modeled using the GLOBIO model, include reduced abundance of wildlife, reduced accessibility to important grazing habitat, and changes in predator-prey relationship as a result of infrastructure and associated human activity.
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This photo has been graciously provided to be used in the GRID-Arendal resources library by: Hugo Ahlenius
On the probability density function of baskets. Bayer, Friz, Laurence arxiv.org/abs/1306.2793 #q-fin
I'll need to know the base rate of people wearing life jackets on this lake before I can infer anything from this sign.
Providence House Signed Horatio Lloyd ' 44
In all probability a talented Amateur Artist, as he does not appear in any reference books, which implies he did not exhibit at any of the major galleries. However, an H .Lloyd exhibited one architectural subject at the RA in 1838. address unknown.
The house , itself, is flanked by Georgian brick buildings and dates from 1652. This was one of Chester's most famous timber houses. The description "God's Providence is Mine Inheritance" is said to refer to the house's escape from an outbreak of Plague. This picture shows the house before 1861 when the owner proposed to demolish it. The Chester Archaeological society which was encouraging the half timber revival protested strongly, and some of the original timbers were used when it was rebuilt in a larger form by James Harrison in 1862.
An identical view of the house was painted by Louise Rayner ( 1832-1924 ) which makes an interesting comparison.
Backgammon, one of the oldest games in the world, has surprising amount of probability theory in it.
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A stray cat walked as much as a household from a drain pipe so her kittens may have an opportunity to thrive.
Jamie MyersEarlier this summer time, Jamie Myers from Spokane, Washington was on a tenting journey together with her household when her 10-year-old daughter noticed a cat underneath the highway from afar. As animal lovers and fosterers, they instantly determined to research and attempt to find the cat."We jumped out of the RV and ran again on the highway that we got here in on, to seek for this mysterious kitty that was very misplaced," Jamie advised Love Meow."A number of hundred yards again, we discovered a drain pipe beneath the highway and what did we see in that drain pipe however two little eyes peering again at us."
Jamie MyersThe drain pipe was not an acceptable house for any strays. Jamie and her daughter tried to coax the cat out with some meals. Lo and behold, a bit of tortie emerged from the opening of the pipe and devoured each morsel from the can."It'd very effectively be the simplest rescue we've ever achieved. We set the little can of meals out and she or he did not hesitate for a minute," Jamie shared with Love Meow."She got here proper out and confirmed us how hungry and exquisite and deathly skinny she was."
Jamie MyersQuickly after the tortie made her exit out of the drain pipe, they made one more discovery. "It did not take lengthy to note by the bones and saggy pores and skin that she was harboring a miracle."The petcores.com/2020/10/19/stray-cat-walked-as-much-as-house...
objects, cast of resin, sculptures, 2016
In probability theory, a probability space or a probability triple is a mathematical construct that models a real-world process (or “experiment”) consisting of states that occur randomly. A probability space is constructed with a specific kind of situation or experiment in mind.
Second part of three (Figs. 3, 4 and 5): Phylogenetic tree of nifH protein sequences.50% majority rule consensus tree of 13,500 PhyloBayes [52] post burn-in trees, unrooted. Black values at internodes ?=? Bayesian Posterior Probability (if >0.5). Pink values ?=? MEGA5 [56] Maximum Parsimony (MP) bootstrap support (if >50). Green values ?=? GARLI [54] Maximum Likelihood bootstrap support (if >50). Terminal triangles represent monophyletic clades with MOTUs solely of one tree species origin, collapsed but keeping the internal distance (substitutions per site, see scale bar), in light pink ?=? 50?79 MP bootstrap support, dark pink ?=? 80?100 MP bootstrap support. Green color indicates MOTUs solely from Fagus origin, red color Picea origin and dark blue color mixed origin (with bars showing ratio of [green] vs. [red]). Terminal labels with sequences from this study: MOTU ID (SMOTU ?=? singleton MOTU), total number of sequences, FASY ?=? from Fagus, PIAB ?=? from Picea, followed by number of sequences in the same order, then forest management type(s) (AC.Conif ?=? managed spruce forests, AC.Decid ?=? managed beech forests, Extensiv ?=? extensively managed beech forests) and number of sequences in same order. Terminal labels with sequences from other sources: near BLAST hit, summary of ecological data of sequences in that MOTU. The width of visible terminal branches represents the number of sequences (size correct up to 10 sequences). To the right, amino acid sequence logos and Kyte-Doolittle hydophobicity alignments for labeled nodes on the tree. The small tree shape (based on screenshot from Archaeopteryx v.0.972 [66]) shows the position within the complete phylogenetic tree.
This photo was NOT set-up.
I had the idea of randomly throwing dice (lightly) and trying to find the best angle and composition possible. My first few throws were too widespread.
However, on this throw, the dice were close enough together for a decent angle and composition. Only later, when I actually developed the photo, did I realize that all 4's turned up !!!
The chances of that are pretty slim, I think (?) considering this was probably my fifth throw or so. Interesting coincidence, none the less.
So, that's where the title "Random Probabilty" comes from - the chance occurence that all numbers turned up.
Another version :
This is the inferred probability density function for the arrival of a 5 inbound bus at Fillmore & McCallister during weekdays.
A little detail on my model and parameter estimation: there is a normal probability density function (PDF) corresponding to each stop, with a bias and scale shared by all stop PDFs. The PDF of any given vehicle arriving is simply the superposition of all individual stop PDFs. Let f(x) be the probability density function of any vehicle arriving f(x). The log likelihood of a number of independent stop times is sum([log(f(time)) for time in times]) to use the python notation. We're interested in normal distribution parameters that maximize this log likelihood computed against our body of actual stop times. I rigged up a function and subjected it to scipy.optimize.minimize, and it found a likelihood maxima at bias=99.76 and scale=217.30.
That is to say, vehicles are late on average of 99.76 seconds with a standard deviation of 217.30 seconds. In the middle of the day it all blurs together into a constant PDF.
Next up: checking if this PDF is well-calibrated.
They are posing for a photograph.
These girls are visitors by all probability,because they are not in their Sarees.But not to miss the action,they must join in the color-exchange ritual.
Probability of a nuclear accident: 1 to 33 million
During my life: 2
PDF-Version: www.lobostudio.de/nuclear_accident_03_2011.pdf
Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Atomunfalls:1 zu 33 Millionen
Während meines Lebens: 2
PDF-Version: www.lobostudio.de/atomunfall_03_2011.pdf
- Feel free to use this image on any media (except for illegal content), but please tell me where you have used it (e.g. Link).
- Fühlt euch frei das Foto zu verwenden (außer bei illegalen Inhalten), aber seit so nett und teilt mir mit wo ihr es benutzt habt (z.B. Link).
How many topics in physics are contained in a simple rainbow produced on the wall (and toilet) by sun shining through a plastic privacy screen?
Well...the light from the sun is composed of many different wavelengths...the distribution of which is dependent on the temperature of the star - which ours is centered on the the yellow. When the the light encounters an optically dense medium (glass or plastic in this case), the light is absorbed by the molecules and passed from molecule to molecule, the probability of which an absorption and emission occurs is described by Feynman's QED. The principle of least action (from D'Alembert and Lagrangian mechanics) finds the maximum probability amplitude, and hence the interaction that occurs, or the direction the light is refracted. The path of light through the medium is dependent on the wavelength and frequency of the light. One can back up to PAM Dirac's relativistic quantum mechanics, ingeniously melded Schrodinger's wave equation and/or Heisenberg's Matrix mechanics with Einstein's relativity, which determined that the only certainty in the universe is the speed of light. Everything else including Newton's fixed stars and time...TIME itself are mutable to make the speed of light constant in every situation. Dirac faced with the actual energy of a particle being the square root of the rest mass and its motion, devised a Hamiltonian that required matricies, later interpreted by Pauli as spin states of particles. Schoedinger and Heisenberg following Bohr's amazing leap of quantized orbits to describe Plancks description of light as quanta....actually they were named by Einstein to describe the photoelectric effect....but Planck needed the quantized description of light to explain the ultraviolet disaster of Rayleigh. Planck was working for the electric company to maximize the light output of municipal utilities at the least cost.... TBC
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spent a lot of time today creating eikosograms (also known as mosaic charts). they were confusing at first, but I'm starting to understand them much better.
I should turn all the code I wrote to make the charts in the bottom right into a function so I can reuse it for the rest of the assignment.
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This site has always been a good source of Warblers. This is one of them... but I'm not that confident of this ID. Few western Warblers have all yellow underparts. Also, at this time of year there should be only adult birds. I eventually came down to two probabilities: Wilson's and Yellow... both females. Other shots don't help much. (If you have a more confident tag for this guy please comment.)
IMG_0472; Wilson's Warbler
Whilst out photographing harriers at Parkgate on a day when precipitation probability was <5% I noticed a little cloud developing over North Wales. Behind me was clear blue sky.
The clouds rapidly developed and raced over the marshes showing by the rainbow that they meant business. Minutes later the heavens opened. Lucky for me I was only 50m from the car.
Shot was deliberately underexposed by 1.5 stops although for some reason this isn't recorded in the EXIF.
Structure of the NblA locus and sequence analysis.(A) A phylogenetic tree of NblA proteins. Nodes with bootstrap probabilities > = 90% (1000 replicates) are shown. Red algae are indicated in red and cyanobacteria are indicated in black. The accession numbers of sequences compared are summarized in Table S4; (B) A partial alignment of NblA proteins. More highly conserved residues are shown in deeper blue. The numbers in the corners indicate alignment start/end positions of amino acid residues in the P. yezoensis nuclear/plastid NblA homologs, respectively; (C) Predicted genomic structure and PCR amplification of NblA locus. The position of forward (F) and reverse (R) primers used is indicated by arrows on the predicted genomic structure. PCR amplification of the gene was performed using genomic DNA (gDNA) from protoplasts and complementary DNA (cDNA) from thalli of P. yezoensis as templates. The dotted line in the genomic structure represents undetermined nucleotide sequence.