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Work with me here.
The probability of me going anywhere urban before the end of the year, all things considered, is pretty much zero.
So - you get a closeup of a 1’x2’ storm drain grate, with a few (surprisingly few) sliders pushed for interest.
I’m not sure what it says about me how excited I was when I spotted it - looking stark and beautiful in the sunshine.
I’m sure my neighbors think I’m nuts.
120 Pictures in 2020 - #112. Urban Shapes
85' -3 Telescope
National Radio Astronomy Observatory
Green Bank, West Virginia
Above quote by Dr. Leonard McCoy of the original series of Star Trek.
7 image HDR
The National Radio Astronomy Observatory at Green Bank has several massive telescopes that scour the skies observing the actions of the universe around us. This 85 foot telescope has been used since 1989 for monitoring of pulsar timing and brightness, about 35 pulsars are observed every day at frequencies of 610 and 327 MHz.
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Another thing that got forgotten was the fact that against all probability a sperm whale had suddenly been called into existence several miles above the surface of an alien planet. And since this is not a naturally tenable position for a whale, this poor innocent creature had very little time to come to terms with its identity as a whale before it then had to come to terms with not being a whale any more. This is a complete record of its thoughts from the moment it began its life till the moment it ended it. Ah ... ! What's happening? it thought. Er, excuse me, who am I? Hello?...well I suppose I'd better start finding names for things Hey! What's this thing suddenly coming towards me very fast? Very very fast. So big and flat and round, it needs a big wide sounding name like ... ow ... ound ... round ... ground! That's it! That's a good name - ground! I wonder if it will be friends with me?
Learning the Makerbot design parameters the hard way. Fat bridges good, skinny bridges bad. Horizontal bridges worse. Diagrid good.
“The aim of marketing is to know and understand your customers so well the product or service fits them and sells itself.” – Peter Drucker ~ Management consultant extraordinaire and best-selling author
It doesn’t start with a product, it starts with a brand. If we focus on developing the best business possible, and put the customer at the forefront of every decision we make, our probability of success will increase dramatically. It is extremely rare for someone to develop a product that is so unique and amazing that it creates demand for itself. Especially as we shift to a more service-based economy, the product we are selling is us.
The best business strategy will always be a captivated customer. In order to gratify our key demographic we need to put ourselves in the shoes of our customers. The only way to know who our target audience is will be to utilize the data that we are provided in order to make the best decisions for them. When we do so we will inevitably be making the best decision for our company as well.
All marketing and branding strategies need to be for your customer instead shaped around your product. The product we create and the way we market it should not change because we think it should, or we want it to, it should change if and when our customers tell us to. The only way we will know when that change needs to take place is to take the time to engage our customers by creating consistent, high-quality content based around our mission statement. We can then better ascertain what content our customers like and what makes them continue to come back for more.
Developing an exceptional product is integral, but what trumps the product we create is the efficient way in which we are able to distribute it. How we are able to best appropriate our product will depend entirely upon the demand that we create for it. Proper distribution of a product will be determined by exactly what our customers want and how they best want to receive it. We need to provide our customers the easiest way possible to learn about our product and then to get the product they so desperately need.
We need to create demand for our product by basing everything we do around a bigger purpose, around our mission statement. And at the heart of every great mission statement is the customer for which the product will be created. The demand that we develop will then not just be for our product or service, it will be for us.
We need to make our customers feel like superheroes when they buy from us. We need to make them feel empowered not only by the product they bought from us, but by how engaged we were with them during and after the purchasing process.
When people feel like their values align with your business, they will be loyal, lifelong customers, and lifelong referrers as well. Our focus needs to be about what our customers are getting beyond the product they are buying from us. We want our customers to feel really good after the purchase has been made so that they keep coming back.
We don’t want our customers to feel like they were taken advantage of when they buy our product. Not only should we do everything in our power to ensure our customers don’t have buyer’s remorse, we also don’t want them to feel indifferent after the purchase has been made. We want our customers to be so excited about what they just bought from us that they can’t help telling their friends. In order to do this, we need to be a part of that process from beginning to end and then even there after.
We need to create demand around what our customers want in order to entice them to want to find out more about what we do and who we are. We need to be there for them when they have questions about a specific feature of our product or service when they are deciding what to buy. And once the purchase has been made, we need to check in with them to safeguard against any difficulties they may have faced in receiving our product. We need to make sure that they got what they paid for and some. And then we need to verify weeks and even months after the purchase that our customer was satisfied with what they bought as well as if to see what complimentary products and/or services of which we can provide them.
What will keep your customers coming back will be bigger than what you are selling. It’s not about the product, it’s about the brand that you create that will allow for your customers to choose you over your competitors. When we create demand around ourselves, we have developed a self-sustaining business that is not selling, it’s just helping.
If we want to build a business that helps make our communities healthier, better places, we need to focus around creating demand for what our customers want and need. A good business is not about us, it’s about the good that we are able to generate for all those around us.
(“The Adventures of Superman” by x-ray delta; image by James Vaughn via #Flickr)
#PeterDrucker
#QuoteOfTheDay
#Superhero
#BuildYourBrand
#ForYourCustomers
Photography like all art, is subjective. What one person might like may not appeal to the next. A couple of days back, I came out on tops in a landscape photography contest, while my submissions had not appealed to the jury of another popular landscape photo contest recently, and my submissions were in all probability trashed. The jury was different in each case and their approach to photography was obviously different. AFAIK an appreciated image in the other contest I am talking about, didn’t find muster with the judges of the contest I came out tops in, and so what is sauce for the goose is not sauce for the gander, when it comes to art.
Many photographers are “purists” and I also love their work. I love the works of Michael Melford, Ian Plant etc., but I also like “non-purists” who modify their image presentation taking advantage of software like Marc Adamus, Ryan Dyar etc. I’m pretty open minded, as long as the image is striking, I appreciate it. I personally though like to tinker with my images in software to portray a particular look and feel, which again might not be to everyone’s liking. So if my images don’t appeal to you, don’t be critical for the sake of it, if you can’t provide constructive criticism, move on.
Anyways, one of the more popular types of long exposure photography people do is shooting flowing water, especially in my part of the world where falling water is in abundance. In fact so popular it is that I find people travelling to this part of the world to experiment with long exposures. Many of them are excellent photogs who know their stuff but many do not understand that long exposure photography should not only be about keeping the shutter open for a few seconds and catching the elements in motion. The frames should be properly composed and the images should appeal to viewers with elements other than the LE too.
This is any case is a fine art frame of the Stieh Maw (Shield Stones, as the rocks in front of the fall in the background look like combat shields) from Ka Bri Ki Synrang (Garden of Caves), Latmawsiang, Sohra, Meghalaya, India. You may or may not like it, but I would love to know why in any case.
Knitpicks Elegance in "Fawn" on Crystal Palace sz 5 needles.
Here's why it's called the "probablility" scarf There are 6 cable columns on the scarf. As I go along the right side, I roll a die for each column. If I get a 6, I cable. If not, I don't. Probability rules would reason that I would cable once each time I go across. Of course, it doesn't work that way. It's fun and interesting to see when I'll get to cable again. I get a lot of questions, though, when I do it in public, so it's a home project unless I'm feeling particularly social.
Not my original idea - Google "probability sweater" for the link I found.
Where e is evidence, H is hypothesis, and P() is probability. There is a lot to think about in this simple theorem.
I recommend Judea Pearl's discussion of this in his book Causality.
Combined results of five kids rolling a die showing great individual variability converging on a nearly uniform distribution of the aggregate
How many topics in physics are contained in a simple rainbow produced on the wall (and toilet) by sun shining through a plastic privacy screen?
Well...the light from the sun is composed of many different wavelengths...the distribution of which is dependent on the temperature of the star - which ours is centered on the the yellow. When the the light encounters an optically dense medium (glass or plastic in this case), the light is absorbed by the molecules and passed from molecule to molecule, the probability of which an absorption and emission occurs is described by Feynman's QED. The principle of least action (from D'Alembert and Lagrangian mechanics) finds the maximum probability amplitude, and hence the interaction that occurs, or the direction the light is refracted. The path of light through the medium is dependent on the wavelength and frequency of the light. One can back up to PAM Dirac's relativistic quantum mechanics, ingeniously melded Schrodinger's wave equation and/or Heisenberg's Matrix mechanics with Einstein's relativity, which determined that the only certainty in the universe is the speed of light. Everything else including Newton's fixed stars and time...TIME itself are mutable to make the speed of light constant in every situation. Dirac faced with the actual energy of a particle being the square root of the rest mass and its motion, devised a Hamiltonian that required matricies, later interpreted by Pauli as spin states of particles. Schoedinger and Heisenberg following Bohr's amazing leap of quantized orbits to describe Plancks description of light as quanta....actually they were named by Einstein to describe the photoelectric effect....but Planck needed the quantized description of light to explain the ultraviolet disaster of Rayleigh. Planck was working for the electric company to maximize the light output of municipal utilities at the least cost.... TBC
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#zoomcharts #interactive #data #datavisualization #charts #graphs #bigdata #dataviz #Duke #DukeU #DukeUniversity #Fuqua #Durham #NorthCarolina #NC #probabilitytheory #combinatorial #optimization #JMichaelSteel #PiDay #314 #UC #UniversityofCalifornia #Stanford #StanfordU #StanfordUniversity #McGill #McGillUniversity #JohnHopkins #JohnHopkinsUniversity #JHU #Massachusetts #MIT #PompeuFabra #UPF #UPenn #UniversityofPennsylvania #LehighUniversity #NSF #IMSTAT #WhartonSchool
From Goldman Sachs CDS 101. See it here www.distressedvolatility.com/2010/04/cds-101-by-goldman-s...
The Northern Lights are an atmospheric light phenomenon consisting of colorful, dancing and changing patterns in the northern and southern night sky. The northern lights are mostly green, but sometimes red, purple or blue.
The northern lights are caused by charged particles brought by the solar wind hitting the Earth's atmosphere at an altitude of about 80-250 kilometers. When a particle collides with oxygen atoms and nitrogen molecules in the Earth's ionosphere , it gives them additional energy, and the atoms are momentarily excited to a higher energy state. When a particle's excited state is released, the excited energy is released as photons , which is visible as light .
Designation
In the northern hemisphere, the aurora borealis is also internationally called by the Latin name Aurora borealis , or northern fire, in the southern hemisphere, Aurora australis , or southern fire. In most other languages as well, the name of the phenomenon refers to the northern lights or northern brown. Only in Finnish is the phenomenon called "aurora borealis". The name is said to come from the fact that the aurora borealis is believed to have been caused by the fur of the Fire Fox rubbing against the trees. According to another theory, "repo" means the spells of the forest Finns , i.e. the northern lights are the spell fires of the sky.
Occurrence
The source of the aurora's energy is the Sun and the solar wind emanating from it , which continuously blows electrically charged particles towards the Earth. The aurora borealis is caused by the interaction of high-energy, charged particles of the solar wind with molecules in the Earth's atmosphere at an altitude of about 80–600 kilometers. Most aurora borealis occur between 80 and 250 km altitude. Their lower edge is usually sharp, but the upper edge gradually fades into invisibility.
Upon arriving in the Earth's magnetic field , the charged particle that arrived from the Sun begins to bounce, guided by the magnetic field, between the Earth's north and south polar regions along the magnetic path, i.e. the field line. When the particle stops bouncing under the influence of an external force, it plunges down in the direction of the Earth's magnetic field. When a particle collides with oxygen atoms and nitrogen molecules in the Earth's ionosphere , it gives them additional energy, and the atoms are momentarily excited to a higher energy state. When the excited state of the particle is released, the excited energy is released as photons, which is visible as a flash of light. Up to thousands of such can occur simultaneously in an area of a cubic centimeter. Together, all the flashes produce a vast aurora borealis.
Occurrence
The aurora borealis occurs mainly in ring-like areas surrounding the Earth's geomagnetic north and south poles, called aurora borealis. They are located at a distance of about 20 degrees of latitude from the poles. The northern aurora oval runs along the width of the northern part of Fennoscandia , the Svalbards , Iceland , southern Greenland , northern Canada, Alaska and the northern coast of Siberia . The southern aurora borealis is located in an uninhabited area around Antarctica, far from, for example, Australia and New Zealand.
The diameter of the aurora oval increases from time to time, when the aurora borealis moves further from the poles and can be seen further away. An aurora substorm is an event where the point of the aurora oval brightens, the oval becomes wider, and the bright area spreads west and east.
On Karhusaari in the Arctic Ocean, halfway between Fennoscandia and Väippuvuorti, the probability of aurora borealis is at its highest, and they occur there every night. In Finland's Kilpisjärvi, the northern lights occur three nights out of four, at the height of Oulu every fourth night, and in the capital region once a month. In the south, the aurora borealis are usually only visible in the northern sky, but sometimes the aurora borealis can also be seen in southern Finland directly above at the zenith .
Sometimes, during periods of strong solar activity, the northern lights can also be seen in Central and Southern Europe, for example in Vienna on average once a year and in Istanbul about every ten years. At low latitudes, the northern lights can sometimes very rarely be observed during strong solar storms in the sky. The northern lights were observed in 1859 in Hawaii at 21 degrees north latitude and in 1872 in Mumbai , India at 19 degrees north latitude, when they were at their zenith in Istanbul and Athens . The southern northern lights have possibly been observed in 1921 in Samoa 13 degrees south latitude and in 1909 in Singapore just one degree north of the equator .
Because the magnetic poles wander on the Earth's surface, the aurora borealis also moves to different places over the centuries. For example, in 1700 the aurora borealis extended to Oulu and Scotland , as a result of which Europe saw ten times more northern lights than today. In the 11th century, however, the aurora borealis reached deep into the southern parts of Siberia, and the aurora borealis was seen significantly more in China than now, but only a little in Western Europe.
Occurrence periods
The frequency of northern lights varies in several cycles – daily, 27-day cycle, seasonal and 11-year cycle.
Since the aurora oval is asymmetric with respect to the magnetic pole and remains stationary with respect to the Sun, as the Earth rotates, it moves during the day relative to the Earth's surface. In the afternoons, the northern lights are far to the north of Finland, but in the course of the evening they move towards the south and are over northern Finland at 22–23. Towards morning, the northern lights retreat to the north again.
When an area of the Sun is activated, it produces not only a lot of sunspots , but also a lot of charged particles that cause the aurora borealis. Such an active region is turned towards the Earth every 27 days, because in that time the Sun rotates once around its axis. An active northern lights period is often followed by a new active period after 27 days. This usually lasts for a few revolutions of the Sun, until the active point of the Sun fades and the aurora borealis decreases.
The most active time of the northern lights is called the northern lights maximum and the smallest is called the northern lights minimum. During the year, the northern lights have their maxima at the vernal equinox and autumn equinox . The minima, on the other hand, are at the summer solstice and winter solstice . However, their differences are not great, and in the northern lights event, the northern lights are observed every night of the year.
Over a period of several years, the northern lights occur most often when the Sun's magnetic activity is at its highest during its 11-year sunspot period , more precisely in the early years of the waning season.
Longer-lasting or irregular fluctuations have also been observed in the number of sunspots and, at the same time, auroras. Around the years 1640–1715 there was the so-called Maunder minimum , during which there were exceptionally few sunspots and the aurora borealis was hardly visible.
Detection
Place and time of sighting
One of the best places to observe and study the aurora borealis is northern Fennoscandia , as it is more populated and has better transport links than the rest of the aurora borealis area.
The aurora borealis is best observed in clear and dark conditions, when the Sun has set behind the horizon . The air temperature is not important in itself, although in freezing weather the air is often clear and therefore good for spotting the northern lights. The aurora borealis occurs as much during the day as at night, but daylight prevents them from being seen just as well as the aurora borealis at night. In Finland, the best time to observe the northern lights is in the northern sky between 21 and 24, far from the light pollution of urban areas .
Northern Lights substorm
The aurora borealis occurs during the night as regular aurora borealis substorms, or "aurora borealis shows". On a calm night, one occurs only once a night, but sometimes 3 to 5 of them are seen during the night. In the north, the aurora borealis can sometimes be seen from directly below, but in the south it is usually only visible from the side.
An aurora substorm starts early in the evening, when one or more peaceful greenish aurora arcs appear on the northern horizon. The arches stretch across the horizon in the east-west direction, but in the north-south direction their width is only a couple of kilometers. The arcs remain unchanged or drift slowly towards the south. The arc brightens an hour or two after it appears, and red may be visible above it. The previously flat light splits into vertical rays, and the arc often begins to ripple. During half an hour, the arc moves south to the middle sky.
The third act of the northern lights play lasts only 10 minutes, but during that time the northern lights substorm is at its fiercest. In the sky, you can see wide aurora bands and curtains that fold and rotate and move rapidly north and south. In addition to green and red, you can also see blue and violet, sometimes even purple. The climax of the northern lights show is sometimes formed by the so-called aurora corona, which is directly above the viewer and spreads to both the northern and southern sky.
In the fourth act, the northern lights diminish in brightness and calm down, and the sky is covered by a gray-green diffuse mantle or pulsating northern lights. This takes about an hour, after which the whole show can start over, when a new aurora arc appears in the northern sky.
Already after the aurora shows have ended in the morning, there are gauzy aurora surfaces that shine with a steady intensity. During the night, so-called false starts can also occur, where the arc does not develop into a substorm.
Colors
The color of the light of the northern lights depends on the quality of the excited particle and the energy it receives in the collision. The excited states of oxygen atoms make the northern lights green and red, and nitrogen molecules bluish.
Green is the most common color of the northern lights. It is born at an altitude of about 100–300 kilometers. The green forms of aurora borealis are usually clearly distinct and sharp, because the state of excitation that releases the green color is maintained for only a second between the impact and the release of the light. Green auroras sometimes also show yellow, which is due to the mixing effect of other colors or the atmosphere. If the sky is not completely dark, green can appear white because the human eye cannot distinguish color from low brightness.
It takes a good minute for the red state of excitation to be discharged. Because the object of impact moves long distances in that time, the red auroras are softer in shape than the green ones. Red light is also weaker than green. The red auroras are mainly created at an altitude of more than 300 kilometers, because the particles have more room to move there than lower down, and because the low-energy and slow particles that cause the red light collide with oxygen even before they have penetrated lower in the atmosphere. At southern latitudes, the aurora borealis almost always appears as intense red, and not green, as in the north.
Purple or mauve color usually occurs below green. It is caused by very high-energy and fast particles that collide with nitrogen molecules only late, at an altitude of about 80–100 kilometers. This color occurs in strong and fast-moving aurora borealis, and the excited state of the particle only lasts for a fraction of a second. The purple aurora borealis are indeed very strong and sharp.
Blue light from ionized nitrogen molecules can sometimes be seen at the top of the aurora borealis. It is very common in conjunction with all other colors, but is often overshadowed by other, stronger colors. The blue color is best seen in the early evening or late morning, and early fall or late spring.
A single aurora form can change color. At first it may be completely green, but after a while the green color will be replaced by a red and softer form.
Formats
Northern lights come in many different forms. The same Northern Lights can look different depending on whether it is viewed directly from below or from the side. During large eruptions, auroras change rapidly and take many forms.
The different forms of northern lights are divided into belt-like, diffuse (blurry) and radiated. In structure, aurora borealis are homogeneous (even), circular or radial. The state of the aurora borealis can be calm, active (moving or changing), or pulsating.
The most common, longest-lived and first visible form of the Northern Lights is the Northern Lights Arc. It stretches from the eastern horizon to the western horizon, and has a flat lower edge. It is usually green and moves calmly and steadily. It can gradually rise higher. As the aurora activity intensifies, several adjacent arcs can be seen in the sky, and the aurora zone expands at the same time. There may be brightenings in the arc that go east or west. The arcs may also start flashing.
Northern Lights Belt.
The aurora belt is created when the aurora arc begins to activate. The aurora borealis has various folds and other structures, and the lower edge of the shape becomes folded and multi-layered.
Northern Lights Veil.
The aurora borealis is a radial arc or belt when viewed from the side. The rays are streaks of light up to several hundreds of kilometers high that may move along the veil.
The aurora corona or aurora crown is visible directly above the observer. It can sometimes cover the entire sky. The corona is usually green, but sometimes it can be completely red.
Aurora spiral.
The aurora spiral is a twisted belt-like structure. The rotation of the magnetic field is caused by the increased upward electric currents, which twist the field line of the magnetic field. A spiral chain has several simultaneous and adjacent spirals.
A westward advancing attack is not as strongly twisted as a spiral. It heralds the strengthening of the northern lights within half an hour.
A place where there is no aurora light is called a black aurora, because the particles travel back into near space. The black aurora borealis form streaks against the bright green aurora borealis.
North–south arcs occur as magnetic activity increases. [39]
Pulsating northern lights occur when the most powerful phase of the eruption begins to pass. They do not move, but their brightness varies greatly, i.e. they pulse or flash. They can appear as patches or long streaks, and are most common in the early morning hours.
The Omega belt resembles the letter omega of the Greek alphabet. It is often seen in the early hours of the morning. It forms a wide and long arc-shaped circle from north to south, and moves towards the eastern horizon.
The aurora pillars can be seen during calm times of the aurora night. They appear on their own and may remain completely in place for a long time. They can show all the colors of the northern lights, but they are quite dim.
Diffuse Northern lights are a flat and dim blanket of northern lights that often appear in the early hours of the night.
Sounds
It has been claimed that a sound is sometimes produced from the aurora borealis. Sounds are not believed to be produced high in the atmosphere, but according to some researchers, it is possible that some kind of sound is produced in the lower atmosphere in connection with the northern lights.
One possibility is that electromagnetic waves are converted into sound waves in objects located near the viewer. Such objects could be, for example, the listener's hair or clothes, or even some parts of the hearing organs. A recent Finnish study suggests that voices can actually be heard. However, their physical basis is still not completely known.
According to the latest measurement results, the sounds associated with the northern lights are produced only at a height of 70 meters and are audible to the human ear. Unto K. Laine and other researchers from Aalto University recorded the sounds of the aurora borealis with three microphones placed apart from each other and were able to locate their place of origin by comparing the delays caused by the passage of the sounds. The sounds are not created in the northern lights, but the same solar particle eruptions that cause the northern lights can also create sound sources near the earth's surface. The details of how the sounds are made are still a mystery, and they do not occur regularly during the northern lights. The sounds are quiet and barely stand out from the surrounding noise. Those who have heard the sounds have often described them as a distant noise and crackling. Because of this, the researchers consider it possible that there are several ways of generating sounds and that the distances of the sound sources from the surface of the earth can vary.
In Culture and Research
Concepts and beliefs related to the northern lights are abundant in the traditions of the peoples who lived in the regions of the Arctic Circle. According to Finnish folk belief, the northern lights were caused by fire foxes running around in Lapland , when their flanks hit trees or their tails hit the snow. Native Americans in Canada had a similar belief, featuring a caribou deer instead of a fire fox . According to an Inger and Karelian folklore, the aurora borealis is caused by the sunlight-reflecting scales of the Leviathan whale swimming in the Arctic Ocean . In the Kalevala, the aurora borealis is referred to, among other things, as the Gates of the North.
The gates of Pohjola are visible,
The evil guards are shining,
The roofs are colorful
from the man-eating village,
from the sinker of Uroho.
( Old poems of the Finnish people : VII1,679)
The pale green color of the northern lights is often associated with the dead in northern folklore, and for example the Eskimos of Greenland considered the northern lights to be the souls of dead children. The red glow of the northern lights has sometimes been seen as soldiers who died in battle struggle with giants. In central and southern Europe, rare and usually blood-red aurora borealis were seen as heavenly signs of wars, plagues and other upheavals. The Norsemen of the time of the Edda poems also associated the northern lights with battles and the dead in battles, and the Canadian Eskimos in Hudson Bay saw the northern lights as guiding lights to heaven for the souls of those who had died violently. In Finland, the northern lights are also widely believed to predict weather changes, although in different ways in different regions.
Earliest written references
Northern lights are rarely seen in Mediterranean countries, but when they are, they can be very spectacular and can be seen over large areas. They are mentioned in several ancient Greek literary sources. Thale is known for example around 600 BC. having paid attention to them and tried to come up with an explanation for them. It has been speculated that at that time Thales saw the same aurora borealis that was also noticed by the prophet Ezekiel who lived at the same time , whose description of the extraordinary phenomena seen in the sky at the beginning of the book has been explained as referring to the aurora borealis.
History of Scientific Theories
The Greek Aristotle proposed in the 3rd century BC that the aurora borealis would be vapors evaporating from the underground layers that ignite from the heat of the Sun. Even at the beginning of the modern era until the 18th century, the northern lights were explained as reflections of sunlight either from ice crystals in the air in the polar regions or from the waves or salt sprays of the Arctic Ocean. Another popular explanation was the glowing smoke from volcanic eruptions in Iceland .
Swedish physics professor Anders Celsius noticed in 1741 that the compass needle vibrated more than usual during the occurrence of strong aurora borealis. This is how the aurora borealis was first connected to Earth's magnetism. Later in the same century, more evidence was found of connections between the aurora borealis and magnetism. In the 19th century, the aurora borealis began to be considered an electromagnetic phenomenon produced by the atmosphere. For example, Selim Lemström , professor of physics at the University of Helsinki , developed the aurora theory at the end of the 19th century, according to which the aurora borealis is a slow discharge of electric charge accumulations in the atmosphere, while lightning is their rapid discharge.
When the electron was discovered at the end of the 19th century, the Norwegians Carl Strömer and Kristian Birkeland proposed that the aurora borealis is caused by electrons thrown into space by the Sun, which somehow generate a glow of light in the upper layers of the atmosphere. Finally, in the 1920s, it was discovered that the northern lights are created by the impact of the Sun's particles on atmospheric oxygen and nitrogen, which release the energy they receive as light.
In popular culture
The northern lights appear, among others, in Philip Pullman's fantasy novel Kultainen Kompassi , in the films Kätketty kullan maa (1996), Insomnia (2002) and Aurora Borealis (2005) and in the television series Villi Pohjola
Карта бассейна реки Ясельда, показывающая вероятный ущерб от наводнений во время весеннего половодья с вероятностью 5% (высоковероятностный сценарий).
A map of the Yaselda river basin displaying the probable damage from floods with probability 5% each year (high-probability scenario).
Follow the smell of fresh paint, just to find a masterpiece .
Sheer delight @Galle, Sri Lanka - in all probability another restaurant.
A Russian map of the Styr-Prostyr river basin displaying areas which are likely to be flooded with probability 10% each year.
Probably, Definitely, Maybe
We live in an uncertain world and we deal with this by considering possibilities and probabilities; from what movies you might be interested in to what diseases you might have given your symptoms. Without realising it people interact with systems that utilise probability on a daily basis. But what is probability, how to we measure and work with it? Given the wealth of big data collected how can we use that to predict the future? What if there is noise in the data? What if the data changes over time?
To answer these questions we start with the fundamentals of probability theory before looking Bayesian systems (frequently a key part of recommendation and expert systems), Markov chains (useful in predicting human behaviour), and dynamic Bayesian networks (such as Kalman filters and hidden Markov chains which are often used in real-time systems like auto-pilot navigation). Along the way we'll try to demonstrate the mathematics using simple Java/Groovy examples. No knowledge of advanced mathematics is required!
Source: DEVOXX
The text with these is in no way finalized and needs to be cleaned up in all probability, but here's how the interiors of the book will pretty much look!
Let your retailer/book store know "PRESIDENTS OF THE UNITED STATES" has a diamond order code of: NOV084121 or that it's ISBN number is: 1600103448 if you actually want a copy to come in. You have to be proactive with these sorts of books or it'll never even make it to many stores for you to look through!
If all else fails you can always find it on Amazon here.
Hope you dig them.
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A Russian map of the Styr-Prostyr river basin displaying areas which are likely to be flooded with probability 25% each year.
Nativity of the Virgin
Date ca. 1480
Made in Lower Franconia, Germany
In all probability this unusual sculpture of the recumbent Saint Anne lying on the birthing bed with the swaddled Virgin Mary came from the predella (lower section) of the late gothic altarpiece dedicated to Saint Anne in the parish church at Ebern. This altarpiece was dismantled in 1703 and replaced with a Baroque one. Although the Nativity sculpture was retained, the legs, head- and tailboards of the bed were subsequently cut away, presumably to fit the sculpture into a different framework. Likewise, as evidenced by the two areas of bare wood in front of the swaddled child, two kneeling angels-probably holding a crown over the child's head-were also removed; remnants of the right angel's wing are apparent. The sculpture subsequently served as a devotional image, indicated by the many candle burns along the front edge. Much of the original paint has been preserved as well as appliqués simulating a brocaded pattern on the mantle of Saint Anne. Made of wax resins overlaid with a silver foil, stamped, and colored with paint and glazes, these appliqués were in wide use in the late fifteenth century, particularly in Germany. The pliant wax resin easily conformed to the complex drapery folds giving the sculpture a further degree of finish.
Scanned slide from 13/01/91: In all probability this is a replacement lever fitted shortly after Nationalisation. Signalling is not really my interest, but based on Stephen Garrett’s Oakwood Press paper about the K&ESR, Bodiam operated a split signalling system: Train Staff and Ticket to Robertsbridge and Webb and Thompson’s Staff Instrument to Northiam.
Found below at
campaign.matadordesignstudio.com/viewEmail.aspx?cID=648D4...
Re: Rhode Island and West Hollywood International Film Festivals
During the last few years DNA evidence has cleared 400+ condemned prisoners in the United States. This irrefutable scientific evidence has caused many Americans to consider the probability that the “system” has been executing the innocent. The Last Word is the first documentary to dig deeper than exoneration and prove beyond any doubt a case of wrongful execution. Most scholars, attorneys, religious leaders and politicians agree that proving a wrongful execution is the most important step toward slowing if not banning capital punishment.
The Last Word is not only dramatically captivating but also possesses high educational and motivational value for Americans (potential jurors) who presently support the death penalty. Through interviews and investigation this documentary unravels the complexity of our criminal justice system and demonstrates how we (society) built and continue to perpetuate a seriously flawed “machine” void of constitutionally guaranteed safety nets for the innocent. Equally inspirational is the film’s powerful message to Christians who have been misled by extremists to misinterpret the Bible as supportive of the death penalty.
The purpose of this email is to request your help by spreading the word about The Last Word (e.g. festival attendance; public screenings; classroom instruction; email forwards; home/church discussion groups; online chatter; etc.) The film is currently weaving across America on the film festival circuit. DVD copies are available at thelastworddocumentary.com and Amazon.com. Educational and library distribution is being handled by National Film Network- - nationalfilmnetwork.com.
EXECUTIONS FOR JULY/AUGUST
Click here to view details on seven executions scheduled in Texas within the next few weeks!
REVIEWS
REVIEWS
“Unique, intriguing and dramatic as it leads to a heart breaking conclusion. One of America’s greatest miscarriages of justice!”
Millard Farmer
Death Row Attorney
Atlanta, GA
[Mr. Farmer was Louisiana Death Row inmate Patrick Sonnier’s appellate attorney. Sean Penn portrayed Mr. Sonnier in Dead Man Walking.]
“A must see for every Christian who has an opinion about capital punishment.”
Bishop Emeritus Leroy Matthieson
“This film should be required viewing for every high school and college student in America.”
Bonita Gunden
United States Public Defender
“A perfect example of how lazy lawyers, crooked politicians and asinine laws caused the system to fail. In Garrett’s case, the match got thrown early on. His own lawyers threw the case!”
Jeff Blackburn
Texas Director,
The Innocence Project
“Had I known then what I know now I never would have voted to convict the boy. He’d still be alive today. We trusted in the doctors and the lawyers and the system. Unfortunately, we trusted too much.”
Nathan Shackleford
Juror #12
“Powerful! Eye opening and informative. The Last Word is a valuable educational resource which will inspire my students in many ways.”
Claudia Stuart
Professor Criminal Justice
Texas A&M University
“I’ve watched the film (three times) and enjoyed it immensely!”
Aaron Phillips
Travel & Entertainment Reporter
Amarillo Globe News
MEDIA ANNOUNCEMENT
Attorney and Documentarian Jesse Quackenbush has been notified that his feature documentary, The Last Word is an “Official Selection” of the West Hollywood and Rhode Island International Film Festivals.
According to Quackenbush The Last Word has been recognized as the first documentary in America to establish convincingly that a criminally accused man has been executed for a crime he didn’t commit. The film re-examines the case of Johnny Frank Garrett, a mentally retarded teenage boy who was arrested, convicted and ultimately executed for the rape, mutilation and murder of a 76 year old nun on Halloween night 1981. Sister Tadea Benz was brutally attacked as she slept in her room at the St. Francis Convent in Amarillo, Texas. Garrett claimed his innocence from the moment of his arrest until his dying breath. DNA evidence and admissions from the actual killer are revealed for the first time in the film. Adding a twist of horror, this documentary also reveals a curse Garrett cast on those responsible for his murder. The curse was written by Garrett in his final letter to “society.” The untimely and sometimes violent deaths of 20 people directly associated with Garrett’s case (including 5 suicides, 6 freak accidents and 7 rare cancers) are documented in the film. Quackenbush, who served as the films Writer, Director and Producer believes “the curse” is real and provides his reasons in Producer Comments at the film’s website.
The Last Word previously premiered at the Buffalo and Seattle International Film Festivals. The film is also an “Official Selection” at the Scottsdale & Eugene International Film Festivals in October. Discounted educational distribution is provided through National Film Network. DVD copies of the film are available through Amazon.com or at www.thelastworddocumentary.com.
Contact Info: Cinco Rosas Productions 512-963-0475
NEWS COVERAGE FROM DEATH ROW
The next victim of the Texas “Death Machine” will be Larry Donell Davis, scheduled for execution on July 31, 2008. I was actually present at Mr. Davis’ trial in Amarillo when his Prosecutor committed an egregious mistake jeopardizing Mr. Davis’ chance for a fair trial. The Prosecutor, during closing argument, stalked over to Mr. Davis who was seated at counsel table and screamed “How can you find for this man who sits . . . silently . . . hiding behind his lawyer!” This was a direct attack on Mr. Davis’ 5th Amendment right to remain silent and not have his silence counted against him. I testified at the Motion for New Trial about the reaction from three of the jurors, ranging from nodding heads of approval to gasps for air. The jury was clearly affected by the Prosecutor’s actions. The hang-em-high Judge, Sam Kaiser denied the Motion for New Trial in spite of his in chambers oral admonishment to the Prosecutor for potentially causing reversible error. I will learn soon if Mr. Davis has placed me on his witness list. If he decides to have me, I will attend and witness my first execution. I am also hoping to film Mr. Davis’ family as they prepare for and experience the execution. I hope to bring their misery to viewers in a future project.
Jesse Quackenbush
Director, The Last Word
FESTIVAL DETAILS
The Last Word is an "Official Selection" of the following upcoming film festivals.
West Hollywood International Film Festival
Regency Theatre
7907 Beverly Blvd.
Los Angeles, CA 90048
July 29, 2008 @ 2:30 p.m.
website
Rhode Island International Film Festival
Bell Street Chapel
5 Bell Street
Providence, RI 02903
August 10, 2008 @ noon
website
Eugene International Film Festival
October 3-5, 2008
website
Scottsdale International Film Festival
October 3-7, 2008
website
The Last Word has participated in the following film festivals in 2008.
Buffalo Film Festival
Seattle International Film Festival
QUICK FACTS
Legality
1. Is the Death Penalty Legal in the United States?
After being suspended in 1972 because of a lack of national standards, the death penalty was declared constitutional (legal) again in 1976 with the provision that rigid statutes be used as a guide. Each state determines whether to permit the sentence of the death penalty. Thirty-six states currently have the death penalty. New Jersey became the first state in 40 years to abolish the death penalty in 2007. (DPIC)
2. Is it legal to execute juveniles or the mentally ill in the United States?
The Supreme Court struck down the death penalty for juveniles in 2005 and declared it illegal to execute defendants with mental retardation in 2002. (DPIC)
3. Is the Supreme Court currently considering the legality of the death penalty?
No, the Supreme Court is currently considering a very specific issue of whether the “3-drug cocktail” method of lethal injection constitutes “cruel and unusual punishment” and would thus be unconstitutional. The Court held a hearing in January 2008 and is expected to make a ruling in spring 2008. (DPIC)
4. What is a moratorium?
A moratorium is a halt on executions for a certain time period. During a moratorium, detailed examinations of capital punishment laws and processes can take place. In a 2007 opinion poll by RT Strategies, 58% of respondents believed it was time for a moratorium on the death penalty, many of those supporting a moratorium also being supporters of the death penalty. (DPIC)
Death Row Executions
5. How many inmates are on Death Row?
In 2008 there are 3,263 inmates on Death Row, with the largest rows in California (609), Florida (388) and Texas (370). (DPIC)
6. How many people have been executed in the United States?
There have been 1,099 executions in the US since 1976, with a peak in 1999 of 98 executions. The largest number of executions since 1976, 405, took place in Texas, with 26 of those occurring in 2007. (DPIC)
7. What countries are responsible for the most executions worldwide?
In 2006 91% of all known executions took place in six countries: China (1,010), Iran (177), Pakistan (82), Iraq (65+), Sudan (65+), U.S. (53). American and Japan are the only post- industrial nations that impose the death penalty. (DPIC)
8. Don’t most people in the U.S. support the Death Penalty?
The percentage of Americans in support of the death penalty peaked in the mid-1990s. According to Pew Research Center surveys, support for the death penalty for persons convicted of murder has fluctuated within a relatively narrow range of 62% of 68% since 2001, while opposition has ranged from 24% to 32% during this time. A Pew survey from August 2007 finds that 62% of Americans favor the death penalty, while 32% oppose it and 6% are unsure. (DPIC)
9. How much does the death penalty cost tax payers?
According to the National Coalition to Abolish the Death Penalty, the estimated cost of single death penalty cases from arrest to execution ranges from $1 to $3 million, compared to an estimated cost of life imprisonment, including incarceration cost of $500,000. The estimated average cost of a death penalty case in TX, according to The Dallas Morning News is $2.3 million. (DPIC)
Methods
10. What methods of execution are currently used in the United States?
36 of the states with the death penalty use lethal injection for executions. In 2008 Nebraska, the only state that used the electric chair as the exclusive form of execution, outlawed the use of the electric chair. Some states utilizing lethal injection have other methods available as back-ups. (DPIC)
11. What is the “3-drug cocktail”?
A form of execution by lethal injection that involves three separate injections. The inmate is injected with sodium thiopental – an anesthetic, which puts the inmate to sleep. Next flows pavulon or pancuronium bromide, which paralyzes the entire muscle system and stops the inmate’s breathing. Finally, the flow of potassium chloride stops the heart. Death results from anesthetic overdose and respiratory and cardiac arrest while the condemned person is unconscious. (DPIC)
Wrongful Convictions and Exonerations
12. How many people have been released from death row?
Since 1973 over 120 people were released from death row with evidence of their innocence. From 1973-1999, there was an average of 3.1 exonerations per year. From 2000- 2007, there has been an average of 5 exonerations per year. (DPIC)
13. Is there any proof that an innocent person has been executed?
Until now, there has never been "uncontroverted proof" that an innocent person has been executed. No forum or legal standard exists for establishing such proof. However there is considerable evidence that other innocent persons have been executed. Cameron Willingham, executed in 2004 in Texas, is one such case. After examining evidence from Willingham’s prosecution, four national arson experts concluded that fire that Willingham was convicted of starting, was accidental. There are many other cases where significant doubts about guilt arose after a person’s execution, such as the case of Carlos DeLuna.
14. Do Americans believe those killed are guilty?
Three-quarters of Americans believe that an innocent person has been executed within recent years and that convictions is resulting in lower levels of support for the death penalty, according to a 2005 study by the University of Cincinnati and Radford University. When life in prison without the possibility of parole was offered as an alternative sentence for capital murder, less than half of all Americans who believe an innocent person has been executed supported the death penalty.
Religion
15. Do most Christians support the death penalty?
Some of the most recent data focusing on religion and the death penalty has looked at the views of Christians, a group that comprises over three quarters of the American population. According to a 2004 Gallop Poll, individuals who self-identify as Protestants are somewhat more likely to endorse capital punishment that are Catholics and far more likely than those with no religious preference. The poll found that more than 7 of 10 Protestants (71%) support the death penalty, while 66% of Catholics support it and that 57% of those with no religious preference favor the death penalty for murder. A 2005 Zogby poll revealed that only 48% of Catholics now support the death penalty. A recent poll by NationalChristianPoll.com found that two thirds of active Christians who oppose the death penalty are concerned about judicial error that could lead to an innocent person being executed. The poll also found that of Christians who support the death penalty, 60% do so because of biblical teachings. According to a 2007 Pew Forum poll, the strongest supporters of the death penalty are white evangelicals, with 74% approval.
16. What are the official stances of religious organizations on the death penalty?
According to the American Friends Service Committee’s Criminal Justice Program, which maintains a list of faith and ethical group that are opposed to the death penalty, many groups are officially opposed to capital punishment, including American Baptists, American Ethical Union, American Friends Service Committee, America Jewish Committee, The Bruderhof Communities, Central Conference of American Rabbis, Disciples of Christ, Church of the Brethren, Church Women United, Episcopal Church, Evangelical Lutheran Church in America, Fellowship of Reconciliation, Friends Committee on National Legislation, Friends United Meeting, General Conference of General Baptists, General Conference of Mennonite Church, Mennonite Church, Moravian Church in America, Orthodox Church in America, Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.), The Rabbinical Assembly, Reformed Church in America, Reorganized Church, Union of American Hebrew Congregations, Unitarian Universalist Association, United Church of Christ, United Methodist Church, and the United States Catholic Conference. The Southern Baptists and The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints have not taken a public position on the issue of capital punishment. The Qur’an supports the death penalty, but there is a strong tradition of mercy within the faith.
Problems with Public Sector distribution are Africa-wide. An empty drug store at Tiriri health centre in Katine, Uganda.
A study of stock levels in sub-Saharan rural health centres by WHO and Health Action International looked at the availability of 100 essential medicines. The availability was 38%. In practical terms this means that the probability is against you finding medicines in your local health centre (which might be 3 hours walk away).
Photograph: Guardian/Martin Godwin
The reality of the matter is that the two people have an equivalent probability to experience the ill effects of fruitlessness. Because of increased work weight, chaotic and quick paced urban way of life with push, environmental contamination, and delaying marriageable age - the chances of infertility are rising significantly.
Age is the most important factor affecting a woman's chance to conceive and have a healthy child. ... A woman's fertility starts to decline in her early 30s, with the decline speeding up after 35. At 40 a woman only has a 5% chance of becoming pregnant in any month.
I have managed to locate what is - in all probability - the last VFC AKS74U for sale (new) in the UK. It is the STD (standard) version rather than the 'DX' version pictured above, but the only differences are that the 'DX' has a real wood fore-grip and an individual serial number.
The standard version comes with a fake wood polymer stock, but by all accounts it is - as you would expect from VFC - a very good imitation. However, VFC do a wood replacement kit - which is available from retailers at $52.
This AKS74U will be replacing my old Kalash AKS74U which has 'died' and which also now has various fractures in its pot metal components. It will be interesting to compare the VFC to the Kalash model as the Kalash is a Chinese copy of the VFC!
See my albums list for some of my best work: www.flickr.com/photos/200044612@N04/albums/
See my main account for my photography, videos, fractal images and more here: www.flickr.com/photos/josh-rokman/
Made with Image Creator from Microsoft Designer, formerly known as the Bing Image Creator. Powered by DALL·E 3.
I think that AI image generation is similar in many ways to photography. The camera itself handles all the fine details, but the photographer is in charge of curating the types of images that will be created.
Ultimately, it is all about maximizing the probability that something good will be created.
This is very similar to AI image generation, in terms of the skills involved and what the human does vs. what the machine does.
You can't compare AI image generation to the process of actually making these images from scratch with 3D software or paint/pencils, where the human controls every detail.
However, I think the process really is very similar to that of photography, as I made the case for above. I think that DALL-E 3 is by far the most powerful AI image generation tool currently available.
- Josh
Or at least there is a very low probability it was ever used.
One of many.
Survey point nail hammered into tree stub and marked with red spray and ribbon. Surveyed with a Leica 300 or 1200 series GPS using RTK, two times some hours apart.
After a while one learned to disregard any measurements with a PDOP* higher than 3 or 4... The accuracy we where going for was 5 cm (about 2 in) (1 sigma), if we did not get within that on the second survey we did a third and so on.
* PDOP (Position, dilution of precision) is a bit simplified an estimate of how accurate the 2D position measurement is. It depends on how well spread out the GPS satellites are, and surprisingly much on the time of day (it is much better in the morning). My guess is that during the day the sun excites the ionosphere which already before that is one of the largest contributors to the GPS measurement error.
A penny falling through a machine to demonstrate ideas from probability and the normal distribution.
The formula for theoretical probability of an event is several of approving outcome separate by amount of total outcomes. The probability, P(E), E (event) is the fraction of times we can expect E to occur if it’s repeat the same experiment over and over. The probability of an event is the ratio of the amount of outcomes approving to the event, to total amount of equally outcomes. This is the classical theoretical probability.
Mamiya 7ii,
Kodak Portra 400,
C41
---
Taken from inside the tram, while climbing the narrow spiral that takes you to the first floor of the tram.
I had noticed the Bank of China reflecting in the building and knew my shot would in all probability be unfocussed and poorly executed. But as with all artistic pursuits good intentions get you some good results.
Sort of a concept figure based on the probability that the Joker escaped from Arkham Asylum sometime after he was apprehended at the end of The Dark Knight.
Entire figure is custom made painted and weathered.
How many topics in physics are contained in a simple rainbow produced on the wall (and toilet) by sun shining through a plastic privacy screen?
Well...the light from the sun is composed of many different wavelengths...the distribution of which is dependent on the temperature of the star - which ours is centered on the the yellow. When the the light encounters an optically dense medium (glass or plastic in this case), the light is absorbed by the molecules and passed from molecule to molecule, the probability of which an absorption and emission occurs is described by Feynman's QED. The principle of least action (from D'Alembert and Lagrangian mechanics) finds the maximum probability amplitude, and hence the interaction that occurs, or the direction the light is refracted. The path of light through the medium is dependent on the wavelength and frequency of the light. One can back up to PAM Dirac's relativistic quantum mechanics, ingeniously melded Schrodinger's wave equation and/or Heisenberg's Matrix mechanics with Einstein's relativity, which determined that the only certainty in the universe is the speed of light. Everything else including Newton's fixed stars and time...TIME itself are mutable to make the speed of light constant in every situation. Dirac faced with the actual energy of a particle being the square root of the rest mass and its motion, devised a Hamiltonian that required matricies, later interpreted by Pauli as spin states of particles. Schoedinger and Heisenberg following Bohr's amazing leap of quantized orbits to describe Plancks description of light as quanta....actually they were named by Einstein to describe the photoelectric effect....but Planck needed the quantized description of light to explain the ultraviolet disaster of Rayleigh. Planck was working for the electric company to maximize the light output of municipal utilities at the least cost.... TBC
FORMS — Screen Ensemble is a generative visual music jukebox. Driven by chance and probabilities, this automaton creates endless, unrepeated graphic scores that are immediately transformed into sound by means of sonification algorithms, making it possible to literally hear what you see.
Performed by this trio of automata — rhythm, harmony and texture — a visual symphony gives birth to unique sonic landscapes: from ambient music to raging rhythms, surreal electronic passages or dance-floor beats.
Photo: tom mesic
This is the first ruined structure you would see when you enter into the Royal center from the Kamalapura-Hampi main road.
For some mysterious reasons this was called the Queen’s Bath. In all probability this was a royal pleasure complex for the king and his wives.
It is an unassuming plain rectangular building from out side. But when you get inside, the story is different.
The whole building is made with a veranda around facing a big open pond at the middle. Projecting into the pond are many balconies. An aqueduct terminates in the pond.
The balconies are decorated with tiny windows and supported by lotus bud tipped brackets. The whole pool is open to the sky. This brick lined pool is now empty. But it’s believed once fragrant flowers and perfumed water filled this bathing pool. At one end of the veranda you can see a flight of steps giving access to the pool. The domical roof of veranda is a spectacle itself.
Each dome in the corridor is designed in a unique style. Also on the floor of the empty pool you can spot some sockets probably meant to support the pillars that were part of a canopy. The whole building from inside looks like some ancient indoor aquatic complex.
Outside around the building is a big water channel encircling the building. You need to cross that at some places where a bridge like structure is made. Probably this was designed to prevent intruders from walking into the place where the royal harem took a bath.
The central portion was the pool. Seen around are the balconies that over look the pool.
There is a small garden too now made in front of the queen’s bath. The architecture is Indo-Saracenic in style, may be a bit more Islamic style than the Hindu style of architecture with the arches and other decorations.