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The evolution of eusociality in Apidae.
a) The Bayesian maximum clade credibility tree of Apidae [13]. Posterior probabilities are represented by the thickness of the branches. Character state assignments of the taxa used for the ancestral state reconstruction of the traditional and complex social level character and of the 5 life-history traits are shown to the right of the tree (black = solitary, yellow = social, green = primitively eusocial, blue = advanced eusocial, red = parasitic, light grey = absent, dark grey = present). The character states do not necessarily represent the state of that particular species, but how that terminal taxon was coded to represent the state(s) of the clade it represents. b) Transitions allowed between the four behavioral states in our model-based ancestral state reconstruction of the complex social level character (Sol = solitary, Soc = social, Prim = primitively eusocial, Adv = advanced eusocial, and Paras = parasitic). The model was the same for the traditional behavioral character on level of sociality, but the state social was not included. c–e) Simplified version of the corbiculate phylogeny with pie charts representing the posterior probability of the ancestral state of the node for the c) traditional social level character, d) complex social level character , and e) five life-history traits.
St Andrew, Halstead, Essex
The eastern part of the South Aisle is so called because it was appropriated by the Bourchiers as their family burial place. The first Bourchier to be connected with Halstead was John, who obtained in 1311 the estate of Stanstead and married Helen de Colchester. He was buried in 1328 and in all probability the granite effigies resting on the easternmost tomb are those of him and his wife with four bedesmen being positioned at their feet. A wooden shield painted with the Bourchier arms has been fixed above the knight, but does not necessarily belong. (There is evidence suggesting that this is a replacement dating from as early as the first half of the sixteenth century. No other such separate shield has been known to have survived.)
The remains of the tomb on which the effigies lie (three portions of two sides of a limestone tomb-chest with 'weepers' and shields) belonged to the tomb of Robert, first Lord Bourchier, son of John and Helen, and his wife Margaret, daughter of Sir Thomas Prayers. Robert was the first Lay Chancellor of England (1340); he fought with the Black Prince at Crecy and was ambassador to the French to treat for peace. He died in 1349 of the Plague. According to the research carried out by J Enoch Powell MP the effigies lying under the adjacent canopied tomb are those of Robert and Margaret.
The canopied tomb with battlemented pinnacles and damaged tomb-chest is characterised by the style prevalent in the early part of the fifteenth century. They display the Bourchier Arms supported by an angel and a dragon. One angel panel in the front appears to have a scallop (cockleshell for Coggeshall?). If so, the tomb may have been made for John, second Lord Bourchier, KG (son of Robert) and his second wife Elizabeth, daughter of Sir John de Coggeshall. He died after a long and distinguished public career in 1400. Some interesting medieval scribbling on the western canopy shaft is gradually becoming obliterated. This records the names of important people connected with the parish. These include Colet (possibly John Colet, since the great tithe belonged to the Dean and Chapter of St Paul's), and Warner, whose family held the Manor of Dynes, alias Boises, from the reign of Henry VI to that of Mary.
Another scribble close by reads 'John Worth, let be your nice legs' although the last two letters are open to question. The Worthies held the Manor of Blamsters and John Worthie was steward to Lord Bourchier at Stanstead Hall during the reign of Henry VI. Weever, in the seventeenth century, mentioned seeing in the church the much damaged tomb of George de Vere, which has entirely disappeared. George was the nephew of John, the redoubtable thirteenth Earl of Oxford who commanded the van of the Duke of Richmond's army at Bosworth Field. George was buried at Halstead in 1498.
Margaret Prayers
BOURCHIER CHAPEL
The eastern part of the South Aisle is so called because it was appropriated by the Bourchiers as their family burial place. The first Bourchier to be connected with Halstead was John, who obtained in 1311 the estate of Stanstead and married Helen de Colchester. He was buried in 1328 and in all probability the granite effigies resting on the easternmost tomb are those of him and his wife with four bedesmen being positioned at their feet. A wooden shield painted with the Bourchier arms has been fixed above the knight, but does not necessarily belong. (There is evidence suggesting that this is a replacement dating from as early as the first half of the sixteenth century. No other such separate shield has been known to have survived.)
The remains of the tomb on which the effigies lie (three portions of two sides of a limestone tomb-chest with 'weepers' and shields) belonged to the tomb of Robert, first Lord Bourchier, son of John and Helen, and his wife Margaret, daughter of Sir Thomas Prayers. Robert was the first Lay Chancellor of England (1340); he fought with the Black Prince at Crecy and was ambassador to the French to treat for peace. He died in 1349 of the Plague. According to the researches carried out by J Enoch Powell MP the effigies lying under the adjacent canopied tomb are those of Robert and Margaret.
The canopied tomb with battlemented pinnacles and damaged tomb-chest is characterised by the style prevalent in the early part of the fifteenth century. They display the Bourchier Arms supported by an angel and a dragon. One angel panel in the front appears to have a scallop (cockleshell for Coggeshall?). If so, the tomb may have been made for John, second Lord Bourchier, KG (son of Robert) and his second wife Elizabeth, daughter of Sir John de Coggeshall. He died after a long and distinguished public career in 1400. Some interesting medieval scribbling on the western canopy shaft is gradually becoming obliterated. This records the names of important people connected with the parish. These include Colet (possibly John Colet, since the great tithe belonged to the Dean and Chapter of St Paul's), and Warner, whose family held the Manor of Dynes, alias
Boises, from the reign of Henry VI to that of Mary.
Another scribble close by reads 'John Worth, let be your nice legs'
although the last two letters are open to question. The Worthies held the Manor of Blamsters and John Worthie was steward to Lord Bourchier at Stanstead Hall during the reign of Henry VI.
Weever, in the seventeenth century, mentioned seeing in the church the much damaged tomb of George de Vere, which has entirely disappeared. George was the nephew of John, the redoubtable thirteenth Earl of Oxford who commanded the van of the Duke of Richmond's army at Bosworth Field. George was buried at Halstead in 1498.
Albert Einstein (March 14, 1879 – April 18, 1955) was a German-born theoretical physicist. He is best known for his theory of relativity and specifically mass-energy equivalence, E = mc2. Einstein received the 1921 Nobel Prize in Physics "for his services to Theoretical Physics, and especially for his discovery of the law of the photoelectric effect."[1]
Einstein's many contributions to physics include his special theory of relativity, which reconciled mechanics with electromagnetism, and his general theory of relativity, which extended the principle of relativity to non-uniform motion, creating a new theory of gravitation. His other contributions include relativistic cosmology, capillary action, critical opalescence, classical problems of statistical mechanics and their application to quantum theory, an explanation of the Brownian movement of molecules, atomic transition probabilities, the quantum theory of a monatomic gas, thermal properties of light with low radiation density (which laid the foundation for the photon theory), a theory of radiation including stimulated emission, the conception of a unified field theory, and the geometrization of physics.
Works by Albert Einstein include more than fifty scientific papers and also non-scientific books. Einstein is revered by the physics community, and in 1999 Time magazine named him the "Person of the Century". In popular culture the name "Einstein" has become synonymous with genius.
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3. When close relatives marry today, there is an increased likelihood of deformities in the offspring because of the mutations (mistakes) that have accumulated in the human race since Adam's sin. The closer the relatives, the more likelihood such people will have similar mistakes. If these mutations are inherited in offspring from both parents, there is an increased probability of major physiological problems.
4. The farther back in history on goes (back towards the Fall of Adam), the less of a problem mutations in the human populations would be. At the time of Adam and Eve's children, there would have been very few mutations in the human genome-thus close relatives could marry, and provided it was one man for one woman (the biblical doctrine of marriage), there was nothing wrong with close relatives marrying in early biblical history.
096
I'd always thought increased homozygosity, due to inbreeding, which increases the chance that offspring of being affected by recessive or harmful traits. I even thought that the percentage (or inbreeding coefficient) of chances for two alleles to be identical (homozygous) can be calculated.
What a fool!
There are 57 small boats in the seaport.
Possible cases = C57,5 = 4187106
Favorable cases = C5,3·C52,2 = 26520
P(A) = 26520/4187106 = 0.006333 (less than 1%)
(spelling mistakes not included)
(Pascal, fuck off, leave me alone)
from here www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152235.shtml?...
Note: The time of the tropical cyclone's center location at the bottom of the graphic will be 3 hours earlier than the time of the current advisory. The forecast cycle for each advisory begins 3 hours prior to the issuance of the advisory products.
These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 50 kt...58 mph. These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 58 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, ... , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 58 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended.
These probabilities will be updated by the NHC with each advisory package for all active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. While separate graphics are focused on each individual tropical cyclone, probabilities resulting from more than one active tropical cyclone may be seen on each graphic.
Sounds obscene, but that's what they were called. They vibrated the ground to determine the probability of oil.
St Andrew, Halstead, Essex
The eastern part of the South Aisle is so called because it was appropriated by the Bourchiers as their family burial place. The first Bourchier to be connected with Halstead was John, who obtained in 1311 the estate of Stanstead and married Helen de Colchester. He was buried in 1328 and in all probability the granite effigies resting on the easternmost tomb are those of him and his wife with four bedesmen being positioned at their feet. A wooden shield painted with the Bourchier arms has been fixed above the knight, but does not necessarily belong. (There is evidence suggesting that this is a replacement dating from as early as the first half of the sixteenth century. No other such separate shield has been known to have survived.)
The remains of the tomb on which the effigies lie (three portions of two sides of a limestone tomb-chest with 'weepers' and shields) belonged to the tomb of Robert, first Lord Bourchier, son of John and Helen, and his wife Margaret, daughter of Sir Thomas Prayers. Robert was the first Lay Chancellor of England (1340); he fought with the Black Prince at Crecy and was ambassador to the French to treat for peace. He died in 1349 of the Plague. According to the research carried out by J Enoch Powell MP the effigies lying under the adjacent canopied tomb are those of Robert and Margaret.
The canopied tomb with battlemented pinnacles and damaged tomb-chest is characterised by the style prevalent in the early part of the fifteenth century. They display the Bourchier Arms supported by an angel and a dragon. One angel panel in the front appears to have a scallop (cockleshell for Coggeshall?). If so, the tomb may have been made for John, second Lord Bourchier, KG (son of Robert) and his second wife Elizabeth, daughter of Sir John de Coggeshall. He died after a long and distinguished public career in 1400. Some interesting medieval scribbling on the western canopy shaft is gradually becoming obliterated. This records the names of important people connected with the parish. These include Colet (possibly John Colet, since the great tithe belonged to the Dean and Chapter of St Paul's), and Warner, whose family held the Manor of Dynes, alias Boises, from the reign of Henry VI to that of Mary.
Another scribble close by reads 'John Worth, let be your nice legs' although the last two letters are open to question. The Worthies held the Manor of Blamsters and John Worthie was steward to Lord Bourchier at Stanstead Hall during the reign of Henry VI. Weever, in the seventeenth century, mentioned seeing in the church the much damaged tomb of George de Vere, which has entirely disappeared. George was the nephew of John, the redoubtable thirteenth Earl of Oxford who commanded the van of the Duke of Richmond's army at Bosworth Field. George was buried at Halstead in 1498.
You can view my blog post for this entry at Cliffs and Ruins, my 365 day blog!
Coins and a 10-sided die, waiting to be used to help teach probability.
If you like my photos, please visit my photo store: David Clark Photography. © David Clark, all rights reserved.
This image is a video still from Kuhne's video Quantum Tunneling, to be exhibited in Night Light: Signal Flow
Quantum Tunneling
video + sound
Kadet Kuhne
2013
In quantum mechanics particles can, with a very small probability, tunnel to the other side of barriers - a process that cannot be directly perceived, but much of its understanding is shaped by the microscopic world. The subject featured in Quantum Tunneling traverses physical and perceived obstacles, into the molecular levels of consciousness.
We are thus witnessing the processes of both "coming into being" and "becoming," where the singularity of a subjective existence continuously births, shapes and reshapes itself as it interrelates with and tunnels through boundaries that are both invisible - quantum - and visible, informed by the socio-cultural interpretations. This audiovisual material invites us to interrelate with its figurations of the process of transvaluation, the change of the very essence from which we derive our notion of a value, in this case of embodied subjectivity on a subatomic - quantum - level, and enfold it into our own embodied subjective experience.
Bio
Kadet Kuhne is a media artist whose work spans the audiovisual spectrum. With the goal of forming somatic experiences which can prompt visceral responses to sound and movement, Kadet openly exposes the use of technology in her practice by employing fragmented, jump-cut edits and amplifying evidence of sonic detritus. This granulated, hyper-edited aesthetic, contrasted with spacious reflection, is intended to elevate tension between motion and stasis: a balanced yet heightened nervous system to reflect our own. Trained in jazz guitar, Kadet became attached to the instinctive nature of improvisation which led her to the California Institute of the Arts where she studied Composition and Integrated Media. Kadet’s experimental sound and video works - taking form in album releases, installation, film, performance, interactivity, 3D printing and 2D print - are exhibited and distributed worldwide. Select venues include the Museum of Art Lucerne, LACMA, Yerba Buena Center for the Arts, de Young Museum, Museum of Contemporary Art-LA, Armory Center for the Arts, San Francisco Arts Commission Gallery, Madame Claude, Contemporary Art Center Villa Arson, and the Antimatter Film Festival.
If you've enjoyed some of the images on this site, then there is a high probability that your pleasure is due to the efforts of Ben Brassington and his son, Eric, during the 1930s, 40s and 50s.
Like me, when you see a photograph, you might wonder who actually took it and whereabouts in Winster did they live. Well, wonder no more so far as two of our photographers are concerned, this is Woodland View where the Brassingtons lived. It is on the spur of East Bank which leads to The Flat.
It occurs to me that the modern owner/occupier of the building might call it by a name other than Woodland View. I cannot read the plaque to the right of the door. If someone lets me know, then I'll give the building's modern name a mention but it might still be Woodland View.
Michael Greatorex
iPredator Probability Inventory #Cyberbully PSA - Visit the #iPredator #Cyberbullying and #Cyberstalking website to download, at no cost, the IPI-CB by Michael Nuccitelli, Psy.D. NYC #BeBest - Link: www.ipredator.co/ipredator-probability-inventory-cyberbully
The seventh graders studied theoretical and experimental probability. The students conducted trials to determine whether two 2-player dice games were fair games (games in which each player has an equal probability of winning). Students identified the sample space in order to calculate the theoretical probabilities; the class then compiled its data in a shared Google Sheet and observed that the experimental probability approached the theoretical probability as the number of trials increased.
Columbia Univ Prof Jeffrey Sachs on Democracy Now: how the continuous wars affects the U.S. budget deficit and national debts. At the end of the interview, Sachs said President Carter's foreign policy adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski had acknowledged that the u.s. bated the Soviet Union to invade Afghanistan by arming the Afghan mujahideen:
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/russia-ukraine-war-washingt...
Haunting echoes, bleeding the Soviets in Afghanistan then and bleeding Russia in Ukraine now:
In a 1998 interview with a French news magazine, former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski confirmed that in 1979, the US knowingly increased the probability of a Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. When asked whether he regretted that strategy, in light of the emergence of militant movements, Brzezinski defended it: “It had the effect of drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap, and you want me to regret it?”
A decade of the Soviet war in Afghanistan drained the Soviet Union economically and eventually led to its disintegration
Indeed, a decade of the Soviet war in Afghanistan drained the Soviet Union economically and eventually led to its disintegration. The strategy to “bleed the Soviets in Afghanistan” was accomplished by the US empowering extremist groups, which in turn dragged Afghanistan into perpetual conflict and destabilised the region, culminating in the 9/11 attacks on US soil.
Still, in the years leading up to 9/11, Brzezinski’s perspective stubbornly held: “What is most important to the history of the world? The Taliban or the collapse of the Soviet empire? Some stirred-up Muslims or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the Cold War?”
In its fervour to dismantle the Soviet empire, the US provided arms, ammunition and training to jihadists in Pakistan. It chose to ignore the gradual gathering of all types of militant Islamists, including Osama bin Laden and his fighters. Yes, the Soviet empire was dismantled, but as a direct consequence of arming extremists, another global threat emerged: al-Qaeda. Dozens more transnational terrorist groups, eager to “bleed” the US and its allies, replaced the menace of the Cold War.
Some elements of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appear eerily similar to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, including Moscow’s flagrant infringement of a neighbouring country’s territorial integrity and national sovereignty, and Nato’s circumspect response. Is the US replaying the Brzezinski strategy, with Russia falling into the Ukrainian “trap”?
Still, it was the Afghans who bore the heaviest cost. In the post-Soviet withdrawal, Afghanistan was a nation armed to the teeth, with warlords hungry for power, trigger-happy petty commanders, and millions of refugees. A regional proxy war in Afghanistan (1992-96), the Taliban’s draconian first rule (1996-2001), the US invasion and “war on terror” (2001-2021), and the Taliban’s subsequent return to power have kept the flames of conflict burning. Afghans, once lauded by the West as valiant champions of freedom - much like US President Joe Biden’s praise of the Ukrainian resistance - are now labelled as warmongers.
Indeed, the two-pronged response by the Biden administration and other Nato governments to Putin’s aggression evokes memories of the US strategy to bleed Moscow in Afghanistan. It is difficult to believe that in the long run, Ukrainians will not suffer a similar fate.
www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/after-being-wrongfully-accused-...
After being wrongfully accused of spying for China, professor wins appeal to sue the government
Xiaoxing Xi, a Temple University professor who was falsely accused of spying for China, will be able to bring a lawsuit against the Federal Bureau of Investigation.
A judge at a federal appeals court ruled in favor of Xi on Wednesday, allowing the physicist to move forward with his case against the U.S. government for wrongful prosecution and violating his family’s constitutional rights by engaging in unlawful search, seizure and surveillance.
The decision comes after FBI agents swarmed Xi’s Philadelphia home in 2015, rounded up his family at gunpoint, and arrested him on fraud charges related to economic espionage, before abruptly dropping the charges months afterward.
“I’m very, very glad that we can finally put the government under oath to explain why they decided to do what they did, violating our constitutional rights,” Xi said in an exclusive interview with NBC News. “We finally have an opportunity to hold them accountable.”
The case will now be kicked back to the district court, continuing a long legal battle. Xi, who’s represented in part by the American Civil Liberties Union, attempted to bring a suit against the government in 2017, alleging that FBI agents “made knowingly or recklessly false statements” to support their investigation and prosecution. Xi also claimed that his arrest was discriminatory, and that he was targeted due to his ethnicity, much like other scholars of Chinese descent. A district court dismissed his case in 2021, but Xi appealed the decision last year.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation declined to comment.
The espionage case against Xi pertained to his alleged disclosure of manufacturing information with his research community. The Justice Department in 2015 had accused the physicist of sharing schematics for a pocket heater, for which Xi had previously signed a nondisclosure agreement, with peers in China. Testimony from fellow physicists, however, showed the blueprints weren’t for the technology in question, but for Xi’s own invention. And court documents showed that the inventor of the pocket heater had told the lead FBI agent on the case that the technology was “widely known” and not “revolutionary.”
The case collapsed four months after Xi’s arrest, but not before the professor was threatened with up to 80 years in prison and a fine of up to $1 million.
With the recent decision, Xi said he hopes more Asian Americans will become more activated and hold those in power accountable.
“For Chinese, it used to be that people try to keep quiet and just move on with their life and just don’t do anything, don’t say anything. But now I can see that more and more people are willing to speak up,” Xi said. “I hope what I have been doing has, in some way, encouraged people to do that and of course take legal action against the government — that’s another big step on top of speaking up.”
The legal battles have come at a cost, however. Xi explained it took a toll on him mentally, emotionally and on his research.
“The big part is this fear. Having gone through the process, knowing what the government could do to twist nothing into a reason to charge you — That’s just a very significant psychological impact,” he said. “Everything I do, I’ve become extra extra careful.”
Citing scientists like MIT’s Gang Chen, who was similarly cleared after a DOJ investigation but now refuses to do federally funded research, Xi said that the string of Asian American scientists who have been wrongly accused has created a tense research environment. The conversation around racial profiling of Asian American scholars had also intensified after the “China Initiative,” a Trump-era security program aimed at addressing Chinese economic espionage, but prompting many false accusations and lives thrown into disarray.
Last year, the Biden administration sunsetted the policy, but Xi said many are still uneasy. According to research by the Committee of 100, more than 50% of scientists of Chinese descent in the U.S. “feel considerable fear and/or anxiety” that they are under government surveillance.
“As a scientist, you’re facing a lot of risks. Do people really want to take those risks?” he said. “All this has a very negative impact on the scientific community, in particular for Chinese scientists, and it will have a very negative impact on American science.”
Xi also said that the government “should not go without any consequence” for what he and his family have had to shoulder.
“That was a very traumatic event, not only to me but it was also a very traumatic event to my family. My two daughters, my wife — everyone reacts to this in their different ways,” Xi said through tears. “We try to go on with our lives, but it’s there.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
You ask a woman how many children she has and she says two. Then for some odd reason you ask her "Is at least one a girl?", to which she replies "Yes".
So what are the odds that she has a girl and a boy?
St Andrew, Halstead, Essex
The eastern part of the South Aisle is so called because it was appropriated by the Bourchiers as their family burial place. The first Bourchier to be connected with Halstead was John, who obtained in 1311 the estate of Stanstead and married Helen de Colchester. He was buried in 1328 and in all probability the granite effigies resting on the easternmost tomb are those of him and his wife with four bedesmen being positioned at their feet. A wooden shield painted with the Bourchier arms has been fixed above the knight, but does not necessarily belong. (There is evidence suggesting that this is a replacement dating from as early as the first half of the sixteenth century. No other such separate shield has been known to have survived.)
The remains of the tomb on which the effigies lie (three portions of two sides of a limestone tomb-chest with 'weepers' and shields) belonged to the tomb of Robert, first Lord Bourchier, son of John and Helen, and his wife Margaret, daughter of Sir Thomas Prayers. Robert was the first Lay Chancellor of England (1340); he fought with the Black Prince at Crecy and was ambassador to the French to treat for peace. He died in 1349 of the Plague. According to the research carried out by J Enoch Powell MP the effigies lying under the adjacent canopied tomb are those of Robert and Margaret.
The canopied tomb with battlemented pinnacles and damaged tomb-chest is characterised by the style prevalent in the early part of the fifteenth century. They display the Bourchier Arms supported by an angel and a dragon. One angel panel in the front appears to have a scallop (cockleshell for Coggeshall?). If so, the tomb may have been made for John, second Lord Bourchier, KG (son of Robert) and his second wife Elizabeth, daughter of Sir John de Coggeshall. He died after a long and distinguished public career in 1400. Some interesting medieval scribbling on the western canopy shaft is gradually becoming obliterated. This records the names of important people connected with the parish. These include Colet (possibly John Colet, since the great tithe belonged to the Dean and Chapter of St Paul's), and Warner, whose family held the Manor of Dynes, alias Boises, from the reign of Henry VI to that of Mary.
Another scribble close by reads 'John Worth, let be your nice legs' although the last two letters are open to question. The Worthies held the Manor of Blamsters and John Worthie was steward to Lord Bourchier at Stanstead Hall during the reign of Henry VI. Weever, in the seventeenth century, mentioned seeing in the church the much damaged tomb of George de Vere, which has entirely disappeared. George was the nephew of John, the redoubtable thirteenth Earl of Oxford who commanded the van of the Duke of Richmond's army at Bosworth Field. George was buried at Halstead in 1498.
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A nodal plane is a plane between two lobes and the probability for finding a particle in the plane is zero.
1993
Photocopy, Artist's Book
Conditional Probability Problems and Solutions Hey! Here is a good news for all those students who suffers while dealing with math questions and are not able to find the proper tutor who guide them in math. An online math tutoring website TutorVista, provides all the lessons on every topic of math under the proper guidance of highly skilled and certified tutors. Queries on topics like probability always make students confuse because they have some randomness in the given detail to solve the problem. That's why online Statistics help is provided by online tutoring service.
November 18, 2010 - "Roles for Third Parties in Improving Implementation of EPA's and OSHA's Regulations on the Management of Low-Probability, High-Consequence Process Safety Risks" - Penn Program on Regulation, in conjunction with the Wharton Risk Management Center, hosted a conference regarding the usage of third party auditors in the enforcement of regulatory safety measures in high risk industries. Industries which experts call "Low-Probability, High-Consequence," such as nuclear reactors, oil refineries, or chemical processing plants, are specifically hoped to be improved by third party inspections safety. The conference brought together numerous participants from a variety of fields, including from government, industry, insurance, academia, and non-profit sectors. The conference consisted of a day-long discussion spread over three separate panels. Over the course of the conference, participants stressed the importance of implementing a third party system to effectively and thoroughly audit industry despite lack of adequate funds and resources. Other potential scenarios offered for enacting effective third party auditing included making sure that these third party auditors were completely independent from the industries they would be inspecting so as to eliminate bias or a conflict of interest. Another issue to consider is the question of whose authority would the third party auditors be under and what kind of enforcement power would they have to enforce industry change. One of the panel discussions brought up the potential linkage of third party audits with insurance companies so as to provide an incentive for industry to decrease safety risks in order to pay lower insurance premiums. Workshop participants included Isadore "Irv" Rosenthal, a Senior Research Fellow at the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center; Howard Kunreuther, James G. Dinan Professor of Business and Public Policy at Wharton and Co-Director of the Wharton Risk Center; Laurie Miller, Senior Director of Environment and Process Safety at the American Chemistry Council; Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan, Managing Director of the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center; Scott Berger, Executive Director of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers; Don Nguyen, a Principal Process Safety Management Engineer at Siemens Energy, Inc.; Mike Marshall, Process Safety Management Coordinator at the Directorate of Enforcement Programs at the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) within the United States Department of Labor; Cary Coglianese, Edward B. Shils Professor of Law and Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania Law School and Director of the Penn Program on Regulation; Bob Whitmore, Former Chief of OSHA Division of Recordkeeping at the United States Department of Labor; Jim Belke, Chemical Engineer at the Office of Emergency Prevention and Member of the Office of Chemical Preparedness within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); William Doerr, FM Global Research Area Director; Manuel Gomez, Director of Recommendations at the U.S. Chemical Safety Board; Tim Cillessen, Manager of Sales and Marketing at Siemens Energy, Inc.; Mike Wright, Director of Health, Safety, and Environment at United Steelworkers; Jennifer Nash, Affiliated Researcher of Nanotechnology and Society Research Group at Northeastern University and the Associate Director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Executive Director of Regulatory Policy Program at Harvard Kennedy School of Government; Michael Perron, Senior Vice President of Willis Re New York.
Calculate conditional and distribution probability Friends, mathematics is a very vast subject which plays an important role in our daily work starting from buying goods to cooking. It is like playing game, which requires a lot of practice and hard work to succeed and become best in it. Similarly Probability is also a very important topic which plays an important role not just in maths but also in different areas of study like Physics, Chemistry, statistical analysis etc. Starting from tossing a coin to the population calculation probability plays a major role.
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Conditional probability and staistical help Probability of any event deals with possible outcomes of it with other events or in other words we can describe probability as the numerical value on a linear scale of 0 to 1, for chances of occurrence of any event among the total events. The probability of any event A amongst all the other is represented as P(A) = (possible outcomes of event A)/ ( total number of events).
Probability Theory The general Probability Theory that is read by us in the school and colleges doesn't include the Probability in Calculus but rather is a subject of discussion in higher class Math. The probability in calculus includes the study of Statistics and probability but it is rather based upon the continuous and discrete aspect.
How the Corps Assesses Its Climate Forecast
The precipitation probability levels are: Above Normal (A), shown in shades of green; Below Normal (B) shown in shades of brown; and Equal Chances (EC), equal chance of (A) and (B), shown in white.
On May 1, the one-month outlook was Above Normal (A) in the northern Plains and Rockies, Equal Chances (EC) in the midsection of the basin and Below Normal (B) in the lower basin. The three-month outlook was for a mix of Above Normal (A) and Equal Chances (EC) precipitation in the upper and lower Missouri River basin. The Above Normal (A) outlook was mainly for eastern Montana, North Dakota, Missouri and Iowa.
Gavins Point Releases
The Corps held Gavins Point releases at 45,000 cfs in early May due to high tributary flows entering the river below
Gavins Point and downstream flooding.
Mountain Snowpack
The Corps began evacuating floodwaters from the upper reservoirs even before the large May storms. During high water years, the rate at which floodwater is evacuated is calculated monthly, or more frequently if needed, to facilitate a smooth transition in releases.
Because the ability to evacuate water is severely restricted during the winter months, most floodwater evacuation is accomplished during the navigation season (April 1 to Dec. 1). Thus, floodwater evacuation rates are defined as an increment of release above navigation flows.
The floodwater evacuation rate is based on a computation of water supply that considers the volume of water already stored in the mainstem and tributary reservoirs and the forecast runoff for the remainder of the year. The goal is to evacuate floodwater at the lowest rate possible over a long period of time to provide flood damage reduction for downstream communities.
On April 1, the rate of flood water evacuation was set at 10,000 cfs above full service navigation flows. As the mountain snowpack continued to climb during late April, the evacuation rate was increased to 15,000 cfs above
navigation levels on April 15, and to 25,000 cfs on May 1.
Boeing 737-300ER lightning strike probability diagram. From the Boeing 737-300ER Aircraft Maintenance Manual (AMM).
This flower reminds me of a Kantuta (wikipedia - cantua buxifolia) but in all probability is a Trumpet Creeper (wikipedia - campsis radicans)
Diagrams of conditional adjustments to the instantiation probability matrix as an effect of the assignment of a new use (Agriculture, Low-Rise, Mid-Rise, or High-Rise) to a site within the area of investigation.
These diagrams consider how the choice of any new use affects the demand for open views on adjacent locations.
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FORMS is a generative visual music bot.
arselectronicagardenbarcelona.org/en/
Driven by a set of rules based on randomness and probability, it can generate and endless number of graphic scores. This scores are automatically sonified thanks to spectral sound synthesis algorithms, bluring the boundaries between scores and spectrums.
The resulting graphics can be framed within the tradition of graphic notation that gained strength among twentieth-century composers (John Cage, Iannis Xenakis, Karlheinz Stockhausen, Morton Feldman, Mestres Quadreny...), and which allowed music to be released from the rigidity of classic staves.
FORMS has been "dreaming" without interruption for more than 5000 hours and streaming this visual music dreams online: www.twitch.tv/playmodes.
After a well deserved break, and for the Ars Electronica exhibition, FORMS is materialized as a "Screen Ensemble". A triptych of large format screens interpret one instrument each: Rhythm, Harmony or Texture. Thanks to its networked brain, this 3 instruments are coordinated between them, each one playing a part of a real-time generative composition which will never be repeated again.
Credi: Santi Vilanova
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FORMS es un "bot" de música visual generativa.
Conducido por un conjunto de reglas basadas en aleatoriedad y probabilidades, genera un sinfín de partituras gráficas. Estas partituras se sonifican automáticamente gracias a algoritmos de síntesis sonora, difuminando los límites entre partitura y espectrograma.
Las imágenes resultantes pueden enmarcarse dentro de la tradición de la notación gráfica que cobró fuerza entre los compositores del siglo XX (John Cage, Iannis Xenakis, Karlheinz Stockhausen, Morton Feldman, Mestres Quadreny ...), y que permitió a la música liberarse de la rigidez de los pentagramas clásicos.
FORMS ha estado "soñando" sin interrupción durante más de 2000 horas y transmitiendo estos sueños musicales visuales on-line en www.twitch.tv/playmodes.
Después de un merecido descanso, y para la exposición Ars Electronica, FORMS se materializa como un "Screen Ensemble". Un tríptico de pantallas de gran formato interpretan un instrumento cada una: Ritmo, Armonía o Textura. Gracias a su cerebro en red, estos 3 instrumentos se coordinan entre ellos, cada uno interpretando su parte de una composición generativa en tiempo real que nunca más se repetirá.
Credit: Santi Vilanova
St Andrew, Halstead, Essex
The eastern part of the South Aisle is so called because it was appropriated by the Bourchiers as their family burial place. The first Bourchier to be connected with Halstead was John, who obtained in 1311 the estate of Stanstead and married Helen de Colchester. He was buried in 1328 and in all probability the granite effigies resting on the easternmost tomb are those of him and his wife with four bedesmen being positioned at their feet. A wooden shield painted with the Bourchier arms has been fixed above the knight, but does not necessarily belong. (There is evidence suggesting that this is a replacement dating from as early as the first half of the sixteenth century. No other such separate shield has been known to have survived.)
The remains of the tomb on which the effigies lie (three portions of two sides of a limestone tomb-chest with 'weepers' and shields) belonged to the tomb of Robert, first Lord Bourchier, son of John and Helen, and his wife Margaret, daughter of Sir Thomas Prayers. Robert was the first Lay Chancellor of England (1340); he fought with the Black Prince at Crecy and was ambassador to the French to treat for peace. He died in 1349 of the Plague. According to the research carried out by J Enoch Powell MP the effigies lying under the adjacent canopied tomb are those of Robert and Margaret.
The canopied tomb with battlemented pinnacles and damaged tomb-chest is characterised by the style prevalent in the early part of the fifteenth century. They display the Bourchier Arms supported by an angel and a dragon. One angel panel in the front appears to have a scallop (cockleshell for Coggeshall?). If so, the tomb may have been made for John, second Lord Bourchier, KG (son of Robert) and his second wife Elizabeth, daughter of Sir John de Coggeshall. He died after a long and distinguished public career in 1400. Some interesting medieval scribbling on the western canopy shaft is gradually becoming obliterated. This records the names of important people connected with the parish. These include Colet (possibly John Colet, since the great tithe belonged to the Dean and Chapter of St Paul's), and Warner, whose family held the Manor of Dynes, alias Boises, from the reign of Henry VI to that of Mary.
Another scribble close by reads 'John Worth, let be your nice legs' although the last two letters are open to question. The Worthies held the Manor of Blamsters and John Worthie was steward to Lord Bourchier at Stanstead Hall during the reign of Henry VI. Weever, in the seventeenth century, mentioned seeing in the church the much damaged tomb of George de Vere, which has entirely disappeared. George was the nephew of John, the redoubtable thirteenth Earl of Oxford who commanded the van of the Duke of Richmond's army at Bosworth Field. George was buried at Halstead in 1498.