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Leena Ghrayeb, Industrial and Operations Engineering Ph.D. student (right) discusses probability of failure issues with Amy Cohn at the Healthcare Engineering and Patient Safety (CHEPS) office on UM’s North Campus.
Amy Ellen Mainville Cohn is an Arthur F. Thurnau Professor in the Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering at the University of Michigan, where she also holds an appointment in the Department of Health Management and Policy in the School of Public Health.
Dr. Cohn is the Faculty Director of the Center for Healthcare Engineering and Patient Safety (CHEPS). She holds an A.B. in applied mathematics, magna cum laude, from Harvard University and a PhD in operations research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Her primary research interests are in applications of combinatorial optimization, particularly to healthcare and aviation, and to the challenges of optimization problems with multiple objective criteria. She values teaching, mentoring, having a positive impact on society through her work, and helping to foster a vibrant, diverse, nurturing community.
Center for Healthcare Engineering and Patient Safety (CHEPS) at Michigan Engineering envisions a healthcare system which delivers the highest-quality care in a patient-centric way; supports the mental and physical well-being of its providers; and ensures economic viability for individuals and institutions.
June 14, 2022
Photo by Marcin Szczepanski/Lead Multimedia Storyteller, University of Michigan College of Engineering
Lance Corporal Frank Church: 1887 - 1916
Frank Reginald Church (Lance Corporal No. 3760) - 2nd/4th Battalion Royal Berkshire Regiment - 184th Brigade - 61st Division
Frank was born in Windsor in 1887, the fifth child of nine to Thomas and Alice Church. The family home was at 64, Oxford Road, Windsor. He was a member of the Boys Brigade and a choirboy at St Stephens Church, Windsor. He attended St Stephens School, Vansittart Road, Windsor and after leaving school he trained as a French Polisher. He married Sarah Ann Barrett on 24th December 1910. They had 2 children - Frank Richard Alfred and Victor George. Sarah was the daughter of Mr & Mrs Barrett of Brook Villa, Boveney. In all probability this was a Boveney house, alongside the stream by the Common gate.
After moving to Eton Wick he became Assistant to the village Scout Master. When war came he joined the 2nd/4th Battalion of the Royal Berkshire Regiment. In peacetime the regiment had two regular serving Battalions and two reserve and territorial. Soon after the outbreak of the war another territorial Battalion was formed at Reading, and this was designated the 2nd/4th. Frank enlisted in Maidenhead and nominated his parents as his "next of kin".
These men were commanded by Colonel Hanbury, and they were initially accommodated and trained on the Hanbury Estate at Hitcham. Clothing and equipment was in very short supply, and the men trained for war with wooden rifles. Eventually though, training was completed, and on May 27th 1916 the Battalion was shipped to Havre.
A little over four weeks later, on July 1st, the Battle of the Somme started. Although the 2nd/4th was not involved on the Somme Front, they were engaged a mile or two north of the line in an attempt to prevent the enemy sending troops from the sector to re-inforce their comrades in the main battle area.
The Somme campaign was a very costly enterprise and on the first day the British suffered nearly 60,000 casualties, a third of whom were fatal. On July 19th Frank Church was killed. By all accounts he died courageously and at the time, the village scouts would have been very proud of him. He fell at Ferme de Bois and was buried several miles north of where he was killed.
The Windsor & Eton Express of September 1916 reported:
Church, Frank Reginald, Lance Corporal; the Berkshire Regiment, of Boveney, was killed on the night of July 19th 1916 in France. Mrs Church has since received from Major General Colin McKenzie, commanding at the front the Division in which the Berkshire (Battalion) belong, a certificate in appreciation of the act, in the following term:
`This parchment has been award to No. 3760 Lance Corporal E R. Church in recognition of the act of gallantry he performed on the night of 13/14th July 1916 at Ferme de Bois. He showed great gallantry in repeatedly going out, as a volunteer, to bring in the wounded under heavy shrapnel fire. He again displayed great courage and devotion to duty on the 19th July 1916, bringing in the wounded, but was himself killed.'
Lance Corporal Church had been associated with the Boy Scout movement for many years. After being Assistant Scout Master of the 3rd Slough, St. Mary's troop, and the Scout Master of the Holy Trinity, Windsor troop, he became, on moving to Eton Wick, the joint Scout Master of the troop there. He was a born leader of boys and had a high standard of duty in all which he undertook. All will sympathise with Mrs Church who is a daughter of Mr Barrett of Brookside Villa, Eton Wick (Boveney). We are proud of the gallantry of our fellow parishioner. R.I.P.
In a later issue of the paper:
In Memory of a Gallant Soldier. During the afternoon services at Boveney Church on Whit Sunday, Colonel Beresford of Old Place, Boveney unveiled a bronze tablet in memory of Corporal (sic) E R. Church of the 4th (sic) Royal Berkshire Regiment, (Mrs Church and her two children being among the congregation) who was killed by the enemy on July 19th 1916 at Ferme De Bois, on the Somme front, in France, while he was trying to bring in, by night, some wounded soldiers, a service for which he had volunteered. His comrades in the regiment defrayed most of the cost of the tablet as a mark of their esteem and affection. It may be added that Corporal Church had been, before the war, Scout Master at Windsor, and when he came to live at Boveney, was joint Scout Master of the Eton Wick troop.
The tablet was designed by the makers, Messrs. Gawthorp and Son of Long Acre, London. No official award was made to Frank, who was killed in the performance of his brave action. Only the Victoria Cross is awarded posthumously, but had he survived he would probably have been recommended for the Military Medal or the Distinguished Conduct Medal.
Frank is buried in Laventie Military Cemetery, about six miles south west of Armentieres and two miles behind the front line of July 1916. The cemetery was first used in June 1916 and contains 420 —burials: 413 being from the United Kingdom, four Australian and three German.
Frank was 29 years old. His special memorial tablet is in Boveney Church, and he is commemorated on the Eton Wick Memorial and the Eton Church Gate tablets. His father-in-law, Mr Barrett, worked diligently on the village memorial committee, to ensure the village men were accorded a fitting monument.
This account of the life of Frank Reginald Church is an extract from "Their Names Shall Be Carved in Stone" and is published here with grateful thanks to the author Frank Bond. It has been amended to include information that was not available to Mr Bond when he was undertaking his research in the 1990’s.
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"The Game of Probabilities" by Oscar Muñoz. "The artist has woven fragments from six of his own identity photographs into twelve different configurations, then rephotographed them."
www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/column-new-evidence-emer...
Column: New evidence emerges against COVID lab-leak theory — but the press keeps pushing it
When it comes to the pandemic, pseudoscience has outweighed real science at almost every turn. One of the best examples of that is the unsupported assertion that the virus causing COVID-19 escaped from a Chinese laboratory.
Despite mounting evidence that the virus reached humans through natural pathways — from infected animals such as bats — the lab-leak hypothesis recently jumped back into the news, thanks to CNN, the investigative news site the Intercept, and the Atlantic.
All treat the idea that the virus escaped from a lab credulously. They downplay or entirely ignore the latest scientific findings that support the theory that the virus' origin can be found in the animal kingdom — the view accepted by a preponderance of experts in virology.
It's a likely probability that this one originated from animals as well. But the possibility also remains that the virus leaked from a lab.
CNN's Sanjay Gupta overstates the lab leak theory
This is known as the zoonotic theory, from the term for a disease that can be transmitted from animals to humans.
We've reported before on the near absence of evidence for a lab leak, whether deliberate or not.
Ever since the lab-leak claim first emerged during the Trump administration, where it was part of a White House information campaign demonizing China, one of the arguments in its favor has been that evidence for a zoonotic origin has also been spotty.
That argument has never been quite true — virologists know that animals have been the source of most of the viral diseases afflicting humanity — but it has become weaker than ever over the last year.
Before examining the flaws in the CNN, Intercept and Atlantic treatments, let's look at what's been published recently about the zoonotic path.
For context, keep in mind that the earliest cluster of COVID-19 cases, in late 2019, was identified in the environs of the Huanan seafood market in the Chinese metropolis of Wuhan. Lab-leak theorists find this significant, because it's 7.5 miles from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which does research on bat viruses.
A paper posted online earlier this month chiefly by researchers at France's Institut Pasteur and under consideration for publication in a Nature journal, however, reports that three viruses were found in bats living in caves in northern Laos with features very similar to SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19.
As Nature reported, those viruses are "more similar to SARS-CoV-2 than any known viruses."
Another paper, posted in late August by researchers from the Wuhan lab, reports on viruses found in rats also with features similar to those that make SARS-CoV-2 infectious in humans. A third paper published on the discussion forum virological.org on Sept. 2 presents evidence that the virus jumped from animals to humans at more than one animal market in Wuhan, not just the Huanan seafood market.
Given that these so-called wet markets have long been suspected as transmission points of viruses from animals to humans because they sell potentially infected animals, that makes the laboratory origin vastly less likely, according to one of the paper's co-authors.
"That a laboratory leak would find its way to the very place where you would expect to find a zoonotic transmission is quite unlikely," Joel Wertheim, an associate professor at UC San Diego's medical school, told me. "To have it find its way to multiple markets, the exact place where you would expect to see the introduction, is unbelievably unlikely."
As virologist Robert F. Garry of Tulane, one of Wertheim's co-authors, told Nature, the finding is "a dagger into the heart" of the lab-leak hypothesis.
Garry and Wertheim are among the 21 expert co-authors of a "critical review" of virological findings on the origins of COVID-19. The review concludes, "There is currently no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 has a laboratory origin."
Now let's look at the recent reporting in support of the lab-leak theory.
On Sept. 19, CNN aired an hourlong documentary entitled "The Origins of COVID-19: Searching for the Source." Hosted by the channel's star science anchor, Sanjay Gupta, the program carries the veneer of an evenhanded approach.
Proponents of the zoonotic origin theory are given airtime, including Kristian Andersen of the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla and Peter Daszak, a prominent grant maker in the virology field.
But so are proponents of the lab-leak theory. They include Alina Chan, a researcher at the Broad Institute, a biomedical research center, and Josh Rogin, a Washington Post columnist. Neither has any experience in virology. Chan is co-writing a book about COVID's origins that is expected to feature the lab-leak theory prominently, a fact not mentioned by CNN.
Yet at the top of the hour, referring to the common pattern of viruses jumping from animals to humans, Gupta says, "It's a likely probability that this one originated from animals as well. But the possibility also remains that the virus leaked from a lab."
By posing these two theories as simply two equally plausible solutions to a mystery, CNN glosses over the fact that the virological community regards the animal origin as vastly more likely than a lab leak. In fact, the two hypotheses are miles apart in credibility.
One of the program's chief targets is a report by a World Health Organization team issued in early 2021 that found spillover from an animal host to be "likely to very likely" and a laboratory incident an "extremely unlikely pathway."
Gupta calls the WHO report "the only scientific study of COVID's origins to date." That's not remotely accurate. There have been countless scientific studies, both before the WHO report and since. Indeed, Gupta mentions one of them, a seminal paper by Andersen and colleagues, published in March 2020. That paper termed the lab-leak theory "a speculative incomplete hypothesis with no credible evidence.”
Much of the rest of the CNN program is filled with speculation about the Wuhan Institute, typically presented with portentous music on the soundtrack, suggesting subliminally that something sinister is going on there. The absence of information from the institute or the Chinese government is generally taken as tantamount to an admission of guilt.
"Over the course of 2020," Gupta declares, "more and more revelations emerged related to the Wuhan Institute of Virology."
One of these revelations concerned three staff members who reportedly sought hospital treatment for a flu-like illness in November 2019, before the COVID pandemic emerged.
Nothing has ever transpired to suggest these workers had COVID — November is flu season, after all. That they sought treatment at a hospital is immaterial, since it is well-known that people in China often go to hospitals for primary care, which residents of other countries would tend to receive in a doctor's office.
A CNN reporter appearing on air overstated the case, saying the patients were "hospitalized with an unknown illness." There has been no evidence that they were admitted to the hospital or that their illness was "unknown."
CNN doesn't bring its audience up to date on any of the latest research supporting the zoonotic theory, though it was published well before the air date and superseded what Gupta described as "the only scientific study" of COVID origins.
More recently, the Intercept trumpeted a purported scoop based on a leaked document — a grant proposal submitted in 2018 by Daszak's organization, the EcoHealth Alliance, to the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA.
The proposal, for a laboratory manipulation of a virus related to SARS, the viral disease that caused an outbreak of pulmonary disease in China in 2003. DARPA rejected the proposal, however, and there's no evidence that it was submitted to, much less approved by, any other funding body.
"Many questions remain about the proposal, including whether any of the research described in it was completed," the Intercept acknowledged.
Commentators on the Intercept's disclosure have displayed, perhaps in spite of themselves, that they lack the courage of their own convictions. In an article published Sept. 24, the Atlantic, unable or unwilling to delve into what the Intercept's document actually meant, if anything, settled for declaring that it made the lab-leak debate "even messier."
The magazine's Daniel Engber and Adam Federman wrote: "Does the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have an unnatural origin? The answer hasn’t changed: probably not. But we have learned something quite disturbing in the past few days, simply from how and when this information came to light."
By pretending that the debate itself is important, as if both sides have something to offer, they manage to report on a claim that has no substance. The approach also protects journalists from their persistent fear of landing on the wrong side of things — the authors preserve an out in case the lab-leak hypothesis turns out to be true, as unlikely as that is. If that happens, they can point to their lily-livered observations and say, "See, we knew it all along."
In this debate, however, the zoonotic camp has evidence and the lab-leak camp nothing to offer but innuendo.
Here's the true state of the discussion. There is no evidence that the virus leaked from the Wuhan laboratory or any other lab. There is no evidence that the Wuhan lab was working with a bat virus that had anything but a very distant resemblance to SARS-CoV-2. Viruses that resemble it much more closely have been found in natural settings a thousand miles from Wuhan, as the crow, or bat, flies.
Evidence that artificial manipulation of a virus gave rise to SARS-CoV-2 has faded, as scientists find more evidence that features of SARS-CoV-2 thought to be unnatural occur in nature. Meanwhile, evidence for zoonotic transmission is constantly accumulating. No one who reports on the issue without acknowledging these two trends should be trusted.
The probability of having achieved human-level AI before a certain date implied by the answers to the Winter Intelligence conference survey. Respondents gave not only their estimates for when it was 50% chance of human-level AI but also 10% and 90%. Fitting a skew Gaussian or a triangular probability distribution to each answer, the resulting average probability density gives an estimate of the collective belief. The blue line represents skew Gaussian fits, the red line triangular fits.
The probability density in the past is due to tails of the component distributions being forced to extend before the present by certain answers.
How many topics in physics are contained in a simple rainbow produced on the wall (and toilet) by sun shining through a plastic privacy screen?
Well...the light from the sun is composed of many different wavelengths...the distribution of which is dependent on the temperature of the star - which ours is centered on the the yellow. When the the light encounters an optically dense medium (glass or plastic in this case), the light is absorbed by the molecules and passed from molecule to molecule, the probability of which an absorption and emission occurs is described by Feynman's QED. The principle of least action (from D'Alembert and Lagrangian mechanics) finds the maximum probability amplitude, and hence the interaction that occurs, or the direction the light is refracted. The path of light through the medium is dependent on the wavelength and frequency of the light. One can back up to PAM Dirac's relativistic quantum mechanics, ingeniously melded Schrodinger's wave equation and/or Heisenberg's Matrix mechanics with Einstein's relativity, which determined that the only certainty in the universe is the speed of light. Everything else including Newton's fixed stars and time...TIME itself are mutable to make the speed of light constant in every situation. Dirac faced with the actual energy of a particle being the square root of the rest mass and its motion, devised a Hamiltonian that required matricies, later interpreted by Pauli as spin states of particles. Schoedinger and Heisenberg following Bohr's amazing leap of quantized orbits to describe Plancks description of light as quanta....actually they were named by Einstein to describe the photoelectric effect....but Planck needed the quantized description of light to explain the ultraviolet disaster of Rayleigh. Planck was working for the electric company to maximize the light output of municipal utilities at the least cost.... TBC
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How to make $240 in Nevada ... start with $ 300 in chips, and play Craps for an hour!
I find this the most interesting of games, I like play craps, don't pass, with 10x odds - which is fairly close to an even bet, however, in the long run, you will lose - because the odds are 0.12% in favour of the house.
Don't bet, and you won't lose - that's my applied probability lesson for you.
i102708 378
For my fellow Toronto dwellers-remember that wet stuff that falls from the sky?
In the last 25 days, the city has seen only 6.4 mm of rain when we should normally have gotten 63 mm according to Enviroment Canada.
Couple that with the current heat wave we're experiencing and I'm feeling downright nostalgic for the day I shot this when I got soaked to the skin.
Perspective is everything.
A return visit to St Mary.
I was last here about 6 years ago, parking in the little square one warm September afternoon.
Much colder in March, but plenty of parking spaces, and St Mary was surprisingly open.
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The church stands in the village square removed from the main road. The flint rubble construction and severe restoration of the exterior does not look welcoming, but the interior is most appealing with plenty of light flooding through the clerestory windows. The rectangular piers of both north and south arcades with their pointed arches and boldly carved stops are of late twelfth-century date. Between them hang some eighteenth-century text boards. The character of the church is given in the main by late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century work. The high altar has four charmingly painted panels by John Ripley Wilmer in Pre-Raphaelite style, executed in 1907. At the opposite end of the church are the organ loft, font cover and baptistry, all designed by F.C. Eden, who restored the church in the early 1900s. He also designed the west window of the south aisle as part of a larger scheme which was not completed. In the south chancel wall are two windows of great curiosity. One contains a fifteenth-century figure of St Thomas Becket while the other shows figures of David and Saul. This dates from the nineteenth century and was painted by Frank Wodehouse who was the then vicar's brother. The face of David was based on that of Mme Carlotta Patti, the opera singer, while Gladstone and Disraeli can be identified hovering in the background! It is a shame that it has deteriorated badly.
www.kentchurches.info/church.asp?p=Elham
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ELEHAM,
OR, as it is as frequently written, Elham, lies the next parish south-eastward from Stelling. It was written in the time of the Saxons both Uleham and Æiham, in Domesday, Albam. Philipott says, it was antiently written Helham, denoting the situation of it to be a valley among the hills, whilst others suppose, but with little probability, that it took its name from the quantity of eels which the Nailbourn throws out when it begins to run. There are Seven boroughsin it, of Bladbean, Boyke, Canterwood, Lyminge, Eleham, Town, Sibton, and Hurst.
Eleham is said to be the largest parish in the eastern parts of this county, extending itself in length from north to south, through the Nailbourn valley, about three miles and an half; and in breadth five miles and a half, that is, from part of Stelling-minnis, within the bounds of it, across the valley to Eleham down and Winteridge, and the southern part of Swinfield-minnis, almost up to Hairn-forstal, in Uphill Folkestone. The village, or town of Eleham, as it is usually called, is situated in the above-mentioned valley, rather on a rise, on the side of the stream. It is both healthy and pleasant, the houses in it being mostly modern and wellbuilt, of brick and fashed. As an instance of the healthiness of this parish, there have been within these few years several inhabitants of it buried here, of the ages of 95, 97, and 99, and one of 105; the age of 40 years being esteemed that of a young person, in this parish. The church, with the vicarage on the side of the church-yard, is situated on the eastern side of it, and the court lodge at a small distance from it. This is now no more than a small mean cottage, thatched, of, I believe, only two rooms on a floor, and unsit for habitation. It appears to be the remains of a much larger edifice, and is built of quarry-stone, with small arched gothic windows and doors, the frames of which are of ashlar stone, and seemingly very antient indeed. It is still accounted a market-town, the market having been obtained to it by prince Edward, afterwards king Edward I. in his father's life-time, anno 35 Henry III. to be held on a Monday weekly, which, though disused for a regular constancy, is held in the market-house here once in five or six years, to keep up the claim to the right of it; besides which there are three markets regularly held, for the buying and selling of cattle, in every year, on Palm, Easter, and Whit Mondays, and one fair on Oct. 20th, by the alteration of the stile, being formerly held on the day of St. Dionis, Oct. 9, for toys and pedlary. The Nailbourn, as has been already mentioned before, in the description of Liminage, runs along this valley northward, entering this parish southward, by the hamlet of Ottinge, and running thence by the town of Eleham, and at half a mile's distance, by the hamlet of North Eleham, where there are several deep ponds, in which are from time to time quantities of eels, and so on to Brompton's Pot and Wingmere, at the northern extremity of this parish. The soil in the valley is mostly an unfertile red earth, mixed with many flints; but the hills on each side of it, which are very frequent and steep, extend to a wild romantic country, with frequent woods and uninclosed downs, where the soil consists mostly of chalk, excepting towards Stelling and Swinfield minnis's, where it partakes of a like quality to that of the valley, tance,by the hamlet of North Eleham, where there only still more poor and barren. At the north-west corner of the parish, on the hill, is Eleham park, being a large wood, belonging to the lord of Eleham manor.
Dr. Plot says, he was informed, that there was the custom of borough English prevailing over some copyhold lands in this parish, the general usage of which is, that the youngest son should inherit all the lands and tenements which his father had within the borough, &c. but I cannot find any here subject to it. On the contrary, the custom here is, to give the whole estate to the eldest son, who pays to the younger ones their proportions of it, as valued by the homage of the manor, in money.
At the time of taking the survey of Domesday, anno 1080, this place was part of the possessions of the bishop of Baieux, under the general title of whose lands it is thus entered in it:
In Honinberg hundred, the bishop of Baieux holds in demesne Alham. It was taxed at six sulins. The arable land is twenty-four carucates. In demesne there are five carucates and forty-one villeins, with eight borderers having eighteen carucates. There is a church, and eight servants, and two mills of six shillings, and twenty eight acres of meadow. Wood for the pannage of one hundred hogs. In the time of king Edward the Confessor, and afterwards, it was worth thirty pounds, now forty, and yet it yields fifty pounds. Ederic held this manor of king Edward.
Four years after the bishop was disgraced, and all his possessions were consiscated to the crown, whence this manor seems to have been granted to William de Albineto, or Albini, surnamed Pincerna, who had followed the Conqueror from Normandy in his expedition hither. He was succeeded by his son, of the same name, who was made Earl of Arundel anno 15 king Stephen, and Alida his daughter carried it in marriage to John, earl of Ewe, in Normandy, whose eldest son Henry, earl of Ewe, was slain at the siege of Ptolemais in 1217, leaving Alice his sole daughter and heir, who entitled her husband Ralph D'Issondon to the possession of this manor, as well as to the title of earl of Ewe. She died in the reign of king Henry III. possessed of this manor, with the advowson of the church, and sealed with Barry, a label of six points, as appears by a deed in the Surrenden library; after which it appears to have come into the possession of prince Edward, the king's eldest son, who in the 35th year of it obtained the grant of a market on a Monday, and a fair, at this manor, (fn. 1) and afterwards, in the 41st year of that reign, alienated it to archbishop Boniface, who, left he should still further inflame that enmity which this nation had conceived against him, among other foreigners and aliens, by thus increasing his possessions in it, passed this manor away to Roger de Leyborne, who died possessed of it in the 56th year of that reign, at which time it appears that there was a park here; (fn. 2) and in his name it continued till Juliana de Leyborne, daughter of Thomas, became the sole heir of their possessions, from the greatness of which she was usually called the Infanta of Kent. She was thrice married, yet she had no issue by either of her husbands, all of whom she survived, and died in the 41st year of king Edward III. upon which this manor, among the rest of her estates, escheated to the crown, there being no one who could make claim to them, by direct or even by collateral alliance. (fn. 3) Afterwards it continued in the crown till king Richard II. vested it in feoffees in trust, towards the endowment of St. Stephen's chapel, in his palace of Westminster, which he had in his 22d year, completed and made collegiate, and had the year before granted to the dean and canons this manor, among others, in mortmain. (fn. 4) All which was confirmed by king Henry IV. and VI. and by king Edward IV. in their first years; the latter of whom, in his 9th year, granted to them a fair in this parish yearly, on the Monday after Palm-Sunday, and on the Wednesday following, with all liberties, &c. In which situation it continued till the 1st year of king Edward VI. when this college was, with all its possessions, surrendered into the king's hands, where this manor did not continue long; for the king in his 5th year, granted it to Edward, lord Clinton and Saye, and he reconveyed it to the crown the same year. After which the king demised it, for the term of eighty years, to Sir Edward Wotton, one of his privy council, whose son Thomas Wotton, esq. sold his interest in it to Alexander Hamon, esq. of Acrise, who died in 1613, leaving two daughters his coheirs, the youngest of whom Catherine, married to Sir Robert Lewknor, entitled him to it; he was at his death succeeded by his son Hamon Lewknor, esq. but the reversion in see having been purchased of the crown some few years before the expiration of the above-mentioned term, which ended the last year of king James I.'s reign, to Sir Charles Herbert, master of the revels. He at the latter end of king Charles I.'s reign, alienated it to Mr. John Aelst, merchant, of London; after which, I find by the court rolls, that it was vested in Thomas Alderne, John Fisher, and Roger Jackson, esqrs. who in the year 1681 conveyed it to Sir John Williams, whose daughter and sole heir Penelope carried it in marriage to Thomas Symonds, esq. of Herefordshire, by the heirs of whose only surviving son Thomas Symonds Powell, esq. of Pengethley, in that county, it has been lately sold to Sir Henry Oxenden, bart. who is now entitled to it.
A court leet and court baron is held for this manor, which is very extensive. There is much copyhold land held of it. The demesnes of it are tithe-free. There is a yearly rent charge, payable for ever out of it, of 87l. 13s. 1d. to the ironmongers company, in London.
Shottlesfield is a manor, situated at the southeast boundary of this parish, the house standing partly in Liminge, at a small distance southward from the street or hamlet of the same name. It was, as early as the reign of king Edward II. the inheritance of a family called le Grubbe, some of whom had afterwards possessions about Yalding and Eythorne. Thomas le Grubbe was possessed of it in the 3d year of that reign, and wrote himself of Shottlesfeld, and from him it continued down by paternal descent to John Grubbe, who in the 2d year of king Richard III. conveyed it by sale to Thomas Brockman, of Liminge, (fn. 5) whose grandson Henry Brockman, in the 1st year of queen Mary, alienated it to George Fogge, esq. of Braborne, and he, in the beginning of queen Elizabeth's reign, sold it to Bing, who, before the end of that reign, passed it away to Mr. John Masters, of Sandwich, from whom it descended to Sir Edward Masters, of Canterbury, who at his decease, soon after the death of Charles I. gave it to his second son, then LL. D. from whose heirs it was alienated to Hetherington, whose last surviving son the Rev. William Hetherington, of North Cray place, died possessed of it unmarried in 1778, and by will devised it, among his other estates, to Thomas Coventry, esq. of London, who lately died possessed of it s. p. and the trustees of his will are now entitled to it.
The manor of Bowick, now called Boyke, is situated likewise in the eastern part of this parish, in the borough of its own name, which was in very antient times the residence of the Lads, who in several of their old evidences were written De Lad, by which name there is an antient farm, once reputed a manor, still known, as it has been for many ages before, in the adjoining parish of Acrise, which till the reign of queen Elizabeth, was in the tenure of this family. It is certain that they were resident here at Bowick in the beginning of king Henry VI.'s reign, and in the next of Edward IV. as appears by the registers of their wills in the office at Canterbury, they constantly stiled themselves of Eleham. Thomas Lade, of Bowick, died possessed of it in 1515, as did his descendant Vincent Lade in 1563, anno 6 Elizabeth. Soon after which it passed by purchase into the name of Nethersole, from whence it quickly afterwards was alienated to Aucher, and thence again to Wroth, who at the latter end of king Charles I.'s reign sold it to Elgar; whence, after some intermission, it was sold to Thomas Scott, esq. of Liminge, whose daughter and coheir Elizabeth, married to William Turner, esq. of the Friars, in Canterbury, at length, in her right, became possessed of it; his only surviving daughter and heir Bridget married David Papillon, esq. of Acrise, and entitled him to this manor, and his grandson Thomas Papillon, esq. of Acrise, is the present owner of it.
Mount and Bladbean are two manors, situated on the hills, on the opposite sides of this parish, the former near the eastern, and the latter near the western boundaries of it; the latter being antiently called Bladbean, alias Jacobs-court, a name now quite forgotten. Both these manors appear to have been in the reign of the Conqueror, part of the possessions of Anschitillus de Ros, who is mentioned in Domesday as holding much land in the western part of this county, their principal manor there being that of Horton, near Farningham. One of this family made a grant of it to the Cosentons, of Cosenton, in Aylesford, to hold of their barony of Ros, as of their manor of Horton before-mentioned, by knight's service. In the 7th year of Edward III. Sir Stephen de Cosenton obtained a charter of freewarren for his lands here. He was the son of Sir William de Cosenton, sheriff anno 35 Edward I. and was sometimes written of Cosenton, and sometimes of Mount, in Eleham. At length his descendant dying in the beginning of king Henry VIII.'s reign, without male issue, his three daughters, married to Duke, Wood, and Alexander Hamon, esq. became his coheirs, and shared a large inheritance between them, and upon their division of it, the manor of Bladbean, alias Jacobs-court, was allotted to Wood, and Mount to Alexander Hamon.
The manor of Bladbean, alias Jacobs-court, was afterwards alienated by the heirs of Wood to Thomas Stoughton, esq. of St. Martin's, near Canterbury, who by will in 1591 (fn. 6) gave this manor, with its rents and services, to Elizabeth his daughter and coheir, married to Thomas Wilde, esq. of St. Martin's, whose grandson Colonel Dudley Wilde, at his death in 1653, s. p. devised it to his widow, from whom it went by sale to Hills, and Mr. James Hills, in 1683, passed it away to Mr. Daniel Woollet, whose children divided this estate among them; a few years after which John Brice became, by purchase of it at different times, possessed of the whole of it, which he in 1729 conveyed by sale to Mr. Valentine Sayer, of Sandwich, who died possessed of it in 1766, and the heirs of his eldest son Mr. George Sayer, of Sandwich, are now entitled to it.
The manor of Mount, now called Mount court, which was allotted as above-mentioned, to Alexander Hamon, continued down to his grandson, of the same name, who died possessed of it in 1613, leaving two daughters his coheirs, the youngest of whom, Catherine, entitled her husband Sir Robert Lewknor, to it, in whose descendants it continued till Robert Lewknor, esq. his grandson, in 1666, alienated it, with other lands in this parish, to Thomas Papillon, esq. of Lubenham, in Leicestershire, whose descendant Thomas Papillon, esq. of Acrise, is the present proprietor of it.
Ladwood is another manor in this parish, lying at the eastern boundary of it, likewise on the hills next to Acrise. It was written in old evidences Ladswood, whence it may with probability be conjectured, that before its being converted into a farm of arable land, and the erecting of a habitation here, it was a wood belonging to the family of Lad, resident at Bowick; but since the latter end of king Edward III.'s reign, it continued uninterrupted in the family of Rolse till the reign of king Charles II. soon after which it was alienated to Williams, in which name it remained till Penelope, daughter of Sir John Williams, carried it in marriage to Thomas Symonds, esq. the heirs of whose only surviving son Thomas Symonds Powell, esq. sold it to David Papillon, esq. whose son Thomas Papillon, esq. now possesses it.
The manor of Canterwood, as appears by an old manuscript, seemingly of the time of Henry VIII. was formerly the estate of Thomas de Garwinton, of Welle, lying in the eastern part of the parish, and who lived in the reigns of Edward II. and III. whose greatgrandson William Garwinton, dying s. p. Joane his kinswoman, married to Richard Haut, was, in the 9th year of king Henry IV. found to be his heir, not only in this manor, but much other land in these parts, and their son Richard Haut having an only daughter and heir Margery, she carried this manor in marriage to William Isaak. After which, as appears from the court-rolls, which do not reach very high, that the family of Hales became possessed of it, in which it staid till the end of queen Elizabeth's reign, when it went by sale to Manwood, from which name it was alienated to Sir Robert Lewknor, whose grandson Robert Lewknor, esq. in 1666 sold it, with other lands in this parish already mentioned, to Thomas Papillon, esq. of Lu benham, in Leicestershire, whose descendant Thomas Papillon, esq. of Acrise, is the present owner of it.
Oxroad, now usually called Ostrude, is a manor, situated a little distance eastward from North Eleham. It had antiently owners of the same name; Andrew de Oxroad held it of the countess of Ewe, in the reign of king Edward I. by knight's service, as appears by the book of them in the king's remembrancer's office. In the 20th year of king Edward III. John, son of Simon atte Welle, held it of the earl of Ewe by the like service. After which the Hencles became possessed of it, from the reign of king Henry IV. to that of king Henry VIII. when Isabel, daughter of Tho. Hencle, marrying John Beane, entitled him to it, and in his descendants it continued till king Charles I.'s reign, when it was alienated to Mr. Daniel Shatterden, gent. of this parish, descended from those of Shatterden, in Great Chart, which place they had possessed for many generations. At length, after this manor had continued for some time in his descendants, it was sold to Adams, in which name it remained till the heirs of Randall Adams passed it away by sale to Papillon, in whose family it still continues, being now the property of Thomas Papillon, esq. of Acrise.
Hall, alias Wingmere, is a manor, situated in the valley at the northern boundary of this parish, next to Barham, in which some part of the demesne lands of it lie. It is held of the manor of Eleham, and had most probably once owners of the name of Wigmere, as it was originally spelt, of which name there was a family in East Kent, and in several antient evidences there is mention made of William de Wigmere and others of this name. However this be, the family of Brent appear to have been for several generations possessed of this manor, and continued so till Thomas Brent, of Wilsborough, dying in 1612,s. p. it passed into the family of Dering, of Surrenden; for in king James I.'s reign Edward Dering, gent. of Egerton, eldest son of John, the fourth son of John Dering, esq, of Surren den, who had married Thomas Brent's sister, was become possessed of it; and his only son and heir Thomas Dering, gent. in 1649, alienated it to William Codd, gent. (fn. 7) of Watringbury, who was succeeded in it by his son James Codd, esq. of Watringbury, who died s. p. in 1708, being then sheriff of this county, and being possessed at his death of this manor in fee, in gavelkind; upon which it came to the representatives of his two aunts, Jane, the wife of Boys Ore, and Anne, of Robert Wood, and they, in 1715, by fine levied, entitled Thomas Manley, and Elizabeth, his wife, to the possession of this manor for their lives, and afterwards to them in fee, in separate moieties. He died s. p. in 1716, and by will gave his moiety to John Pollard; on whose death s. p. it came, by the limitation in the above will, to Joshua Monger, whose only daughter and heir Rachael carried it in marriage to her husband Arthur Pryor, and they in 1750 joined in the sale of it to Mr. Richard Halford, gent. of Canterbury. The other moiety of this manor seems to have been devised by Elizabeth Manley above-mentioned, at her death, to her nephew Thomas Kirkby, whose sons Thomas, John, and Manley Kirkby, joined, in the above year, in the conveyance of it to Mr. Richard Halford above-mentioned, who then became possessed of the whole of it. He was third son of Richard Halford, clerk, rector of the adjoining parish of Liminge, descended from the Halfords, of Warwickshire, as appears by his will in the Prerogative-office, Canterbury, by which he devised to his several sons successively in tail, the estate in Warwickshire, which he was entitled to by the will of his kinsman William Halford, gent, of that county. They bear for their arms, Argent, a greybound passant, sable, on a chief of the second, three fleurs de lis, or. He died possessed of it in 1766, leaving by Mary his wife, daughter of Mr. Christopher Creed, of Canterbury, one son Richard Halford, gent. now of Canterbury; and two daughters, Mary married to Mr. John Peirce, surgeon, of Canterbury; and Sarah. In 1794, Mr. Peirce purchased the shares of Mr. Richard and Mrs. Sarah Halford, and he is now the present owner of this manor. He bears for his arms, Azure field, wavy bend, or, two unicorns heads, proper.
The manor OF Clavertigh is situated on the hills at the north-west boundary of this parish, next to Liminge, which antiently belonged to the abbey of Bradsole, or St. Radigund, near Dover, and it continued among the possessions of it till the 27th year of king Henry VIII. when by the act then passed, it was suppressed, as not having the clear yearly revenue of two hundred pounds, and was surrendered into the king's hands, who in his 29th year, granted the scite of this priory, with all its lands and possessions, among which this manor was included, with certain exceptions, however, mentioned in it, to archbishop Cranmer, who in the 38th year of that reign, conveyed this manor of Clavertigh, with lands called Monkenlands, late belonging to the same priory in this parish, back again to the king, who that same year granted all those premises to Sir James Hales, one of the justices of the common pleas, to hold in capite, (fn. 8) and he, in the beginning of king Edward VI.'s reign, passed them away to Peter Heyman, esq. one of the gentlemen of that prince's bedchamber who seems to have had a new grant of them from the crown, in the 2d year of that reign. He was succeeded by his eldest son, Ralph Heyman, esq. of Sellindge, whose descendant Sir Peter Heyman, bart. alienated the manor of Clavetigh to Sir Edward Honywood, of Evington, created a baronet in 1660, in whose descendants this manor has continued down to Sir John Honywood, bart. of Evington, who is the present possessor of it.
Charities.
Jonas Warley, D. D. gave by will in 1722, 50l. to be put out on good security, the produce to be given yearly in bread on every Sunday in the year, after divine service, to six poor widows, to each of them a two-penny loaf. The money is now vested in the vicar and churchwardens, and the produce of it being no more than 2l. 5s. per annum, only a three-halfpenny loaf is given to each widow.
Land in this parish, of the annual produce of 1l. was given by a person unknown, to be disposed of to the indigent. It is vested in the minister, churchwardens, and overseers.
Four small cottages were given to the parish, by a person unknown, and are now inhabited by poor persons. They are vested in the churchwardens and overseers.
Sir John Williams, by will in 1725, founded A CHARITY SCHOOL in this parish for six poor boys, legal inhabitants, and born in this parish, to be taught reading, writing, and accounts, to be cloathed once in two years; and one such boy to be bound out apprentice, as often as money sufficient could be raised for that use. The minister, churchwardens, and overseers to be trustees, who have power to nominate others to assist them in the management of it. The master has a house to live in, and the lands given to it are let by the trustees.
The poor constantly relieved are about seventy-five, casually fifty-five.
Eleham is within the ecclesiastical jurisdiction of the diocese of Canterbury, and deanry of its own name.
The church, which is dedicated to St. Mary, is large and handsome, consisting of three isles, the middle one having an upper range of windows, and one chancel, having a tower steeple, with a spire shast on it, at the west end, in which are eight bells, a clock, and chimes. Within the altar-rails is a memorial for John Somner, gent. son of the learned William Somner, of Canterbury, obt. 1695; arms, Ermine, a chevron voided. In the chancel a brass plate for Michael Pyx, of Folkestone, mayor and once high bailisf to Yarmouth, obt. 1601. Another for Nicholas Moore, gent. of Bettenham, in Cranbrooke; he died at Wingmer in 1577. In the middle isle a memorial for Captain William Symons, obt. 1674; arms, Parted per pale, and fess, three trefoils slipt. A brass plate for John Hill, dean and vicar of Eleham, obt. 1730. In this church was a lamp burning, called the light of Wyngmer, given before the year 1468, probably by one of the owners of that manor.
The church of Eleham was given by archbishop Boniface, lord of the manor of Eleham, and patron of this church appendant to it, at the instance of Walter de Merton, then canon of St. Paul's, and afterwards bishop of Rochester, to the college founded by the latter in 1263, at Maldon, in Surry. (fn. 9) After which the archbishop, in 1268, appropriated this church to the college, whenever it should become vacant by the death or cession of the rector of it, saving a reasonable vicarage of thirty marcs, to be endowed by him in it, to which the warden of the college should present to him and his successors, a fit vicar, as often as it should be vacant, to be nominated to the warden by the archbishop; otherwise the archbishop and his successors should freely from thence dispose of the vicarage for that turn. (fn. 10)
¶The year before this, Walter de Merton had begun a house in Oxford, whither some of the scholars were from time to time to resort for the advancement of their studies, to which the whole society of Maldon was, within a few years afterwards, removed, and both societies united at Oxford, under the name of the warden and fellows of Merton college. This portion of thirty marcs, which was a stated salary, and not tithes, &c. to that amount, was continued by a subsequent composition or decree of archbishop Warham, in 1532; but in 1559, the college, of their own accord, agreed to let the vicarial tithes, &c. to Thomas Carden, then vicar, at an easy rent, upon his discharging the college from the before-mentioned portion of thirty marcs: and this lease, with the like condition, has been renewed to every subsequent vicar ever since; and as an addition to their income, the vicars have for some time had another lease, of some wood grounds here, from the college. (fn. 11)
The appropriation or parsonage of this church is now held by lease from the warden and fellows, by the Rev. John Kenward Shaw Brooke, of Town-Malling. The archbishop nominates a clerk to the vicarage of it, whom the warden and fellows above-mentioned present to him for institution.
This vicarage is valued in the king's books at twenty pounds, (being the original endowment of thirty marcs), and the yearly tenths at two pounds, the clear yearly certified value of it being 59l. 15s. 2d. In 1640 it was valued at one hundred pounds per annum. Communicants six hundred. It is now of about the yearly value of one hundred and fifty pounds.
All the lands in this parish pay tithes to the rector or vicar, excepting Parkgate farm, Farthingsole farm, and Eleham-park wood, all belonging to the lord of Eleham manor, which claim a modus in lieu of tithes, of twenty shillings yearly paid to the vicar. The manor farm of Clavertigh, belonging to Sir John Honywood, bart and a parcel of lands called Mount Bottom, belonging to the Rev. Mr. Thomas Tournay, of Dover, claim a like modus in lieu of tithes.
Карта бассейна реки Ясельда, показывающая территории, которые может затопить во время весеннего половодья с вероятностью 1% (средневероятностный сценарий).
A map of the Yaselda river basin displaying the area which is likely to suffer from floods with probability 1% each year (medium-probability scenario).
A map of Tajikistan and Afghanistan displaying regions with a medium to high flood risk and different factors which increase the probability of floods.
The probability of having achieved human-level AI before a certain date implied by the answers to the Winter Intelligence conference survey. Respondents gave not only their estimates for when it was 50% chance of human-level AI but also 10% and 90%. Fitting a triangular probability distribution to each answer, the resulting average probability density gives an estimate of the collective belief.
The probability density in the past is due to tails of the component distributions being forced to extend before the present by certain answers.
The Grand Canyon NP & Grand Escalante Staircase! 45Epic Dr. Elliot McGucken ! Point Imperial! Fine Landscape and Nature Photography. Join my new 45EPIC fine art landscapes page on facebook!
facebook.com/mcgucken
Working on a couple photography books! 45EPIC GODDESS PHOTOGRAPHY: A classic guide to exalting the archetypal woman. And 45EPIC Fine Art Landscape Photography!
Fresh snow! More on my golden ratio musings: facebook.com/goldennumberratio
instagram.com/goldennumberratio
Greetings all! I have been busy finishing a few books on photography, while traveling all over--to Zion and the Sierras--shooting fall colors. Please see some here: facebook.com/mcgucken
Let me know in the comments if you would like a free review copy of one of my photography books! :)
Titles include:
The Tao of Epic Landscape Photography: Exalt Fine Art with the Yin-Yang Wisdom of Lao Tzu's Tao Te Ching!
The Golden Number Ratio Principle: Why the Fibonacci Numbers Exalt Beauty and How to Create PHI Compositions in Art, Design, & Photography
facebook.com/goldennumberratio
And I am also working on a book on photographing the goddesses! :) More goddesses soon!
Best wishes on your epic hero's odyssey!:)
I love voyaging forth into nature to contemplate poetry, physics, the golden ratio, and the Tao te Ching! What's your favorite epic poetry reflecting epic landscapes? I recently finished a book titled Epic Poetry for Epic Landscape Photographers:
www.facebook.com/Epic-Poetry-for-Epic-Landscape-Photograp...
Did you know that John Muir, Thoreau, and Emerson all loved epic poetry and poets including Shakespeare, Milton, Homer, and Robert Burns?
I recently finished my fourth book on Light Time Dimension Theory, much of which was inspired by an autumn trip to Zion!
www.facebook.com/lightimedimensiontheory/
Via its simple principle of a fourth expanding dimension, LTD Theory provides a unifying, foundational *physical* model underlying relativity, quantum mechanics, time and all its arrows and asymmetries, and the second law of thermodynamics. The detailed diagrams demonstrate that the great mysteries of quantum mechanical nonlocality, entanglement, and probability naturally arise from the very same principle that fosters relativity alongside light's constant velocity, the equivalence of mass and energy, and time dilation.
Follow me on instagram!
Join my new 45EPIC fine art landscapes page on facebook!
The probability density of human-level AI implied by the answers to the Winter Intelligence conference survey. Respondents gave not only their estimates for when it was 50% chance of human-level AI but also 10% and 90%. Fitting a triangular probability distribution to each answer, the resulting average probability density gives an estimate of the collective belief.
The probability density in the past is due to tails of the component distributions being forced to extend before the present by certain answers.
Monument Valley! The Epic Landscapes of the Colorado Plateau! Dr. Elliot McGucken Fine Art Landscape and Nature Photography!
Join my new 45EPIC fine art landscapes page on facebook!
facebook.com/mcgucken
Working on a couple photography books! 45EPIC GODDESS PHOTOGRAPHY: A classic guide to exalting the archetypal woman. And 45EPIC Fine Art Landscape Photography!
Fresh snow! More on my golden ratio musings: facebook.com/goldennumberratio
instagram.com/goldennumberratio
Greetings all! I have been busy finishing a few books on photography, while traveling all over--to Zion and the Sierras--shooting fall colors. Please see some here: facebook.com/mcgucken
Let me know in the comments if you would like a free review copy of one of my photography books! :)
Titles include:
The Tao of Epic Landscape Photography: Exalt Fine Art with the Yin-Yang Wisdom of Lao Tzu's Tao Te Ching!
The Golden Number Ratio Principle: Why the Fibonacci Numbers Exalt Beauty and How to Create PHI Compositions in Art, Design, & Photography
facebook.com/goldennumberratio
And I am also working on a book on photographing the goddesses! :) More goddesses soon!
Best wishes on your epic hero's odyssey!:)
I love voyaging forth into nature to contemplate poetry, physics, the golden ratio, and the Tao te Ching! What's your favorite epic poetry reflecting epic landscapes? I recently finished a book titled Epic Poetry for Epic Landscape Photographers:
www.facebook.com/Epic-Poetry-for-Epic-Landscape-Photograp...
Did you know that John Muir, Thoreau, and Emerson all loved epic poetry and poets including Shakespeare, Milton, Homer, and Robert Burns?
I recently finished my fourth book on Light Time Dimension Theory, much of which was inspired by an autumn trip to Zion!
www.facebook.com/lightimedimensiontheory/
Via its simple principle of a fourth expanding dimension, LTD Theory provides a unifying, foundational *physical* model underlying relativity, quantum mechanics, time and all its arrows and asymmetries, and the second law of thermodynamics. The detailed diagrams demonstrate that the great mysteries of quantum mechanical nonlocality, entanglement, and probability naturally arise from the very same principle that fosters relativity alongside light's constant velocity, the equivalence of mass and energy, and time dilation.
Follow me on instagram!
Join my new 45EPIC fine art landscapes page on facebook!
Binary Options Bullet – This powerful software successfully predicts winning binary options trades within a 70-95% rate of probability. Depending on current market conditions the software will print on your chart the probability of winning the trade & tell you when to call or put!
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The formula for Theoretical Probability of an event is several of approving outcome separate by amount of total outcomes. The probability, P(E), E (event) is the fraction of times we can expect E to occur if it’s repeat the same experiment over and over. The probability of an event is the ratio of the amount of outcomes approving to the event, to total amount of equally outcomes. This is the classical theoretical probability.
A Russian map of the Styr-Prostyr river basin displaying infrastructure which is likely to suffer from floods with probability 25% each year.
I chose this location for the probability of running water in the river and the chance to play in mud, but this particular location sorta smelled like cow poop. Oh well..
Notice the storm clouds in back. At this point we stopped for luch, but were headed back to the car. See the video.
Greetings mate! I love voyaging forth to Zion National Park to contemplate poetry, physics, the golden ratio, and the Tao te Ching! What's your favorite epic poetry reflecting epic landscapes? I recently finished a book titled Epic Poetry for Epic Landscape Photographers:
www.facebook.com/Epic-Poetry-for-Epic-Landscape-Photograp...
Did you know that John Muir, Thoreau, and Emerson all loved epic poetry and poets including Shakespeare, Milton, Homer, and Robert Burns?
How inspiring the grandeur of Zion is! It reminds us of those entities greater than ourselves, such as Homer's Iliad and Odyssey and Light Time Dimension Theory!
I recently finished my fourth book on Light Time Dimension Theory, much of which was inspired by an autumn trip to Zion!
www.facebook.com/lightimedimensiontheory/
Via its simple principle of a fourth expanding dimension, LTD Theory provides a unifying, foundational *physical* model underlying relativity, quantum mechanics, time and all its arrows and asymmetries, and the second law of thermodynamics. The detailed diagrams demonstrate that the great mysteries of quantum mechanical nonlocality, entanglement, and probability naturally arise from the very same principle that fosters relativity alongside light's constant velocity, the equivalence of mass and energy, and time dilation.
Follow me on intsagram!
Join my new 45EPIC fine art landscapes page on facebook!
Fresh snow! More on my golden ratio musings: The Golden Number Ratio Principle: Why the Fibonacci Numbers Exalt Beauty and How to Create PHI Compositions in Art, Design, & Photography facebook.com/goldennumberratio
Best wishes on your epic hero's odyssey!:)
Zion National Park Winter Fine Art Photography 45EPIC Dr. Elliot McGucken Fine Art Landscape and Nature Photography
Epic 45SURF Gear for your Epic Hero's Odyssey!
New book! Epic Landscape Photography: The Principles of Fine Art Nature Photography!
www.amazon.com/Epic-Landscape-Photography-Principles-Comp...
www.facebook.com/epiclandscapephotography/
The Epic Seascape! Malibu Sea Caves!
Landscape photography is not only about traveling through space, but it is also about traveling through time. One may return to the same beach time and again throughout the seasons to find a million different universes, changing in an infinitude of manners with each passing wave.
Not only do we voyage outwardly to get the shot, but we travel even further inwardly. While I spend my year trekking along the John Muir Trail, and on through Zion, Yosemite, the Grand Canyon, Death Valley, and the Colorado Plateau, my heart always finds its home in these Malibu sea caves, where I have stood in awe during all hours of the day and night.
Included within are a few shots that only I have so far captured, including a miraculous winter solstice sunrise.
Best wishes throughout the coming year!
Join my new 45EPIC fine art landscapes page on facebook!
facebook.com/mcgucken
Working on a couple photography books! 45EPIC GODDESS PHOTOGRAPHY: A classic guide to exalting the archetypal woman. And 45EPIC Fine Art Landscape Photography!
More on my golden ratio musings: facebook.com/goldennumberratio
instagram.com/goldennumberratio
Greetings all! I have been busy finishing a few books on photography, while traveling all over--to Zion and the Sierras--shooting fall colors. Please see some here: facebook.com/mcgucken
Let me know in the comments if you would like a free review copy of one of my photography books! :)
Titles include:
The Tao of Epic Landscape Photography: Exalt Fine Art with the Yin-Yang Wisdom of Lao Tzu's Tao Te Ching!
The Golden Number Ratio Principle: Why the Fibonacci Numbers Exalt Beauty and How to Create PHI Compositions in Art, Design, & Photography
facebook.com/goldennumberratio
And I am also working on a book on photographing the goddesses! :) More goddesses soon!
Best wishes on your epic hero's odyssey!:)
I love voyaging forth into nature to contemplate poetry, physics, the golden ratio, and the Tao te Ching! What's your favorite epic poetry reflecting epic landscapes? I recently finished a book titled Epic Poetry for Epic Landscape Photographers:
www.facebook.com/Epic-Poetry-for-Epic-Landscape-Photograp...
Did you know that John Muir, Thoreau, and Emerson all loved epic poetry and poets including Shakespeare, Milton, Homer, and Robert Burns?
I recently finished my fourth book on Light Time Dimension Theory, much of which was inspired by an autumn trip to Zion!
www.facebook.com/lightimedimensiontheory/
Via its simple principle of a fourth expanding dimension, LTD Theory provides a unifying, foundational *physical* model underlying relativity, quantum mechanics, time and all its arrows and asymmetries, and the second law of thermodynamics. The detailed diagrams demonstrate that the great mysteries of quantum mechanical nonlocality, entanglement, and probability naturally arise from the very same principle that fosters relativity alongside light's constant velocity, the equivalence of mass and energy, and time dilation.
Follow me on instagram!
Join my new 45EPIC fine art landscapes page on facebook!
When we are solving Conditional Probability Examples ,we deal with two events, say A and B , sometimes these events are so related to each other , that the probability will depend on whether the other event has already occurred. Conditional probability can be defined as the probability of an event given that another event has already occurred.
Let’s consider an example for Conditional probability: Consider a card game, suppose a player needs to draw 2 cards of the same suit to win, out of 52 cards there can be 13 cards in each suit. If the first player draws a heart, and the player wishes to draw a second heart. If one heart has already been chosen, then we only have 12 hearts remaining out of 51 cards.
so, mister koppa ( proprietor of the heavy duty press ) and i ended an exciting evening for two middle-aged guys by playing a round of yahtzee.
it came down to the final two turns of dice rolling and neither of us had rolled an "any yahtzee" ( defined as all five dice have the same value during a player's turn of three rolls of 5 dice).
mister koppa got a yahtzee in two rolls on his turn and i promptly responded with a yahtzee in two rolls on my turn. neither of us had ever seen anything like that happen. ever. and it made me wonder what the odds were of it happening.
most of the yahtzee probability sites seem to agree that the odds of rolling an any yahtzee after two rolls is 1.3% or about 1 in 75 turns, which means you might rightly expect to get a yahtzee on two rolls about every 6 games ( with 13 turns per game ).
but what are the odds of rolling two successive yahtzees in two rolls? isn't it 1.3%*1.3% or 0.02% or 1 in 5,000 turns?
if so, that's just another night of improbability in the driftless region.
and, yes, i won.
The Grand Canyon NP & Grand Escalante Staircase! 45Epic Dr. Elliot McGucken ! Point Imperial! Fine Landscape and Nature Photography. Join my new 45EPIC fine art landscapes page on facebook!
facebook.com/mcgucken
Working on a couple photography books! 45EPIC GODDESS PHOTOGRAPHY: A classic guide to exalting the archetypal woman. And 45EPIC Fine Art Landscape Photography!
Fresh snow! More on my golden ratio musings: facebook.com/goldennumberratio
instagram.com/goldennumberratio
Greetings all! I have been busy finishing a few books on photography, while traveling all over--to Zion and the Sierras--shooting fall colors. Please see some here: facebook.com/mcgucken
Let me know in the comments if you would like a free review copy of one of my photography books! :)
Titles include:
The Tao of Epic Landscape Photography: Exalt Fine Art with the Yin-Yang Wisdom of Lao Tzu's Tao Te Ching!
The Golden Number Ratio Principle: Why the Fibonacci Numbers Exalt Beauty and How to Create PHI Compositions in Art, Design, & Photography
facebook.com/goldennumberratio
And I am also working on a book on photographing the goddesses! :) More goddesses soon!
Best wishes on your epic hero's odyssey!:)
I love voyaging forth into nature to contemplate poetry, physics, the golden ratio, and the Tao te Ching! What's your favorite epic poetry reflecting epic landscapes? I recently finished a book titled Epic Poetry for Epic Landscape Photographers:
www.facebook.com/Epic-Poetry-for-Epic-Landscape-Photograp...
Did you know that John Muir, Thoreau, and Emerson all loved epic poetry and poets including Shakespeare, Milton, Homer, and Robert Burns?
I recently finished my fourth book on Light Time Dimension Theory, much of which was inspired by an autumn trip to Zion!
www.facebook.com/lightimedimensiontheory/
Via its simple principle of a fourth expanding dimension, LTD Theory provides a unifying, foundational *physical* model underlying relativity, quantum mechanics, time and all its arrows and asymmetries, and the second law of thermodynamics. The detailed diagrams demonstrate that the great mysteries of quantum mechanical nonlocality, entanglement, and probability naturally arise from the very same principle that fosters relativity alongside light's constant velocity, the equivalence of mass and energy, and time dilation.
Follow me on instagram!
Join my new 45EPIC fine art landscapes page on facebook!
Antelope Canyon Slot Canyons Upper Antelope Canyon 45Epic Dr. Elliot McGucken Fine Landscape and Nature Photography!
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Luray, VA (Page County)
According to historian Harry Strickler, the town of Luray, laid out in 1812, "was established in all probability for the purpose of having a central and inviting place for a county seat in the event a new county should be established," an eventuality that came to pass in 1831. Prior to Luray's establishment, the hamlet of Mundellsville had developed at a mill site less than a mile up Hawksbill Creek from Luray, but Luray was the first legislatively established town in the Page Valley, separated from the core areas of Shenandoah and Rockingham counties (of which Page County was then a part) by Massanutten Mountain. (1)
References (1) NRHP Nomination Form s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/opastorage/live/12/6824/...