Probability photos on Flickr

The Styr-Prostyr river basin - infrastructure at risk from floods with probability 0.5% by Zoï Environment Network

A Russian map of the Styr-Prostyr river basin displaying infrastructure which is likely to suffer from floods with probability 0.5% each year.

6th Grade Probability Carnival by Vail Mountain School

Mystery Bone Fragment by Ric Morris

This is a bone fragment that I picked up in Italy in 2002. It's been very badly damaged - roadkill, in all probability. Identification of this piece is potentially tricky, and it could easily be thrown away or dismissed, but once you've collected a few skull specimens and spent time handling and studying them, you may recognise it as part of a skull. It is in fact the top of the skull, just behind the eye, and the swooping peak along the top line of the bone as we see it here, the piece that looks a little like a shark's fin, is known as the postorbital process. Its size and shape is typical of a carnivore skull. There's one massive clue here which we can use to identify the skull as a Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes), and that's a tiny concavity just below the process as depicted here. The equivalent point on a dog skull is very convex!

Jefferson. by Ben Templesmith

2 1

The text with these is in no way finalized and needs to be cleaned up in all probability, but here's how the interiors of the book will pretty much look!

Let your retailer/book store know "PRESIDENTS OF THE UNITED STATES" has a diamond order code of: NOV084121 or that it's ISBN number is: 1600103448 if you actually want a copy to come in. You have to be proactive with these sorts of books or it'll never even make it to many stores for you to look through!

If all else fails you can always find it on Amazon here.

Hope you dig them.

Probability Lattice 0303 Final pieces by Marius Watz

IMG_1768 by Peter Macdonald

Hao Yu's Probability Section Workshop, How to speed up your R computation by vectorization and parallel programming.

CARDEN DNA PROJECT_Page_1 by James Cook

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CARDEN DNA PROJECT

Fifth Report - May 2003

The use of DNA for genealogy relies on the fact that the portion called the Y-chromosome is passed unaltered from father to son over very many generations, except for the rare occurrence of a mutation affecting one element (called a marker).

For explanations, see, for instance

freepages.genealogy.rootsweb.com/~allpoms/genetics.html

www.familytreedna.com/facts_genes.asp

For the Carden DNA Project nearly 40 Y-chromosome analysis results have now been received, including those of the first six participants which were covered in my report dated January 2002.The first 25 were analysed by Oxford Ancestors in England, but we are now using FTDNA of Texas, through whom analysis is carried out by the University of Arizona.

This latest report omits most of the explanations given in earlier reports. I will be happy to repeat them, and also go into much greater detail about the technique, probability calculations, family trees of the participants, more detail about origins of the family and so on, on request.If anyone else would like to take part, please contact me.

Many thanks are again due to Trish and Ron for kindly publishing this report on their sites -

www.TNTCarden.com/tree/ensor/00CardenDNAproject1.html

www.lightpatch.com/genealogy/cardendnaproject/

Arthur Carden.30th May 2003

Carden Origins

For some years I have thought, without much foundation, that all Cardens world-wide (apart from a few whose ancestors changed their surname to Carden from some other name) descend from one of three common ancestors, and thus are part of three unrelated groups with origins as follows.

Cheshire Origin

The Carden name appears in Cheshire from the 13th century onwards. Ormerod, the famous Cheshire historian, states “at some point before the reign of Henry II (i.e., before 1216) a family assumed the local name Carden.”

Essex Origin.

The Domesday Book shows that in 1086 a William Cardon was working for Geoffrey de Mandeville, one of the many followers of William the Conqueror who were given confiscated land.

Mayo/Sligo Group.

Many Cardens can trace their origins to these Irish west coast counties.

An objective of the CARDEN DNA PROJECT is to show whether most Cardens are indeed members of one of these three groups, and whether the three groups are distinct or connected to one another.It has already gone a long way to achieving this objective.

Results so far

What appears here is a highly simplified summary.The actual numbers for each individual appear in a table at the end of this document.

Cheshire Haplogroup

About half of all the nearly 40 results received so far (mostly 10 or 12 marker tests) are identical, and those concerned undoubtedly have a common ancestor.I call this identical DNA signature the Cheshire Haplotype because several of the individuals concerned are known to have very early Cheshire origins.Many of the remainder differ by only one or two mutations, and clearly also come from Cheshire.Probability calculations suggest that they all had a common ancestor in about the year 1500 plus or minus a century or more.

Five of these identical results are 25-marker tests.Compared with these another five 25-marker tests exhibit mutations.This is splendid – the five identical ones define the Cheshire haplotype as far as the additional markers are concerned, and the five with mutations may in due course help to establish family groupings.

Mayo/Sligo Group

It is remarkable that the signatures of two of the participants from Mayo/Sligo only differ by two mutations from the Cheshire haplotype.This implies that the Mayo/Sligo Cardens may also have a Cheshire ancestor.The earliest record of Cardens in Co Sligo is dated 1617, well before a Carden emigrated from Cheshire to Tipperary about 1665.It is possible that their ancestor emigrated separately from England in earlier years, perhaps in Norman or Elizabethan times.However the other two participants from Mayo/Sligo do not support this theory.

East Kent Haplogroup

Two results (both from the original six) define the totally different East Kent Haplotype.They come from Ron and Bill, who both live in Kent, England.Bill’s was a welcome surprise, as it was previously only guessed that his great grandfather, Sergeant George Carden, born 1818 in France, had Kent ancestors.Their common ancestor lived before 1700 and probably before 1450.

Individual Participants and Family Groups

An attempt is made below to comment on the DNA signature of each individual participant.Comments and corrections will be most welcome.

Matlock Group

Observant readers will see that I have now transferred Tom Carding to the Matlock Group from the Tipperary Group, although there is no proof that he descends from Samuel, the common ancestor of the other four.Both he and Jim have had 25-marker tests made, with identical results, so that there is a 50/50 chance they have a common ancestor within 7 generations.We do not yet have a 25-marker test for a Tipperary Carden, unfortunately.

Apart from Tom, the signatures of three of the group exactly match the Cheshire haplotype, so not only is it clear that the Matlock group has Cheshire origins, but that their common ancestor Samuel must have had the same signature.Samuel Carden or Carding was born about 1650 in Matlock.Michael’s has two mutations.

The Carden, Cardin and Carding names were all used by members of this group, changing back and forth over the years.

Cecil Carding of New Zealand is the “senior” member of the group, being descended from Samuel’s elder son.

Jim Carden lives in Stalybridge, England.James (“Jim”) has obtained a 25-marker result, which exactly matches the results for four of the others who have obtained such results, helping to confirm the 25-marker Cheshire haplotypeHe has his own very interesting web site at .

John Carden, by coincidence, also used to live in Stalybridge, but has recently moved to France. His descent from Samuel seems highly probable, but his earliest proven ancestor is Solomon Cardin/Carding who married in Manchester in 1841.However his DNA signature helps to prove the link to Samuel.

Michael Carding and his wife Marrion live in Chesterfield, England.He is the odd one out. All the other Matlock Cardens match the Cheshire haplotype exactly (whether over 10 markers or 25).Michael previously showed one mutation, and now that he has obtained a 25-marker result shows two!It appears that the first mutation (at DYS 393) must have occurred at one of the five transmissions between himself and Michael born 1787, his earliest common ancestor with John.The other mutation (at DYS 464d) must have been at one of the eight transmissions between himself and Samuel born 1681.If John decides to have a 25-marker test done, he will also presumably be found to possess this second mutation, as it would be remarkable for both of Michael's mutations to have occurred since his line split from John's.

Tom Carding (Frank Tomas Carding) lives in Cheshire.His son Michael, head teacher of the local secondary school, was very helpful as regards the Carden Gathering in 1998.There is a delightful tradition in his family that a scoundrel named Captain John Carden from Tipperary eloped with the unfortunate Miss Mary de Warren about 1750 and soon deserted her and her infant son John, who used the name Carding rather than Carden. The family still treasures the scoundrel’s sword.Since Tom had an identical 10-marker signature to Peter, of the Tipperary group below this appeared to suggest that the scoundrel came from Peter’s branch of the family, and might even have been the same as the Major John Carden who eloped in 1772 with a Miss Sarah Surman.But there is evidence that Miss Mary de Warren actually married a John Carding from the next village, so it is equally likely that Tom’s ancestry comes more directly from Cheshire, without having anything to do with Tipperary.Now that Tom has had a 25-marker test done, which matches Jim (of Matlock’s) signature exactly, this and the name “Carding” makes a connection with the Matlock group more likely than one with the Tipperary group.

Tipperary Group

A John Carden emigrated to Tipperary, probably directly from Cheshire, in the 17th century.He is known to some of us as the patriarch.His date of birth is not known, but is likely to have been in the first half of the 17th century as his sons were married in Tipperary in 1672 and 1673.He must have had the same DNA signature as Peter O’N Carden, whose ancestry has been traced on paper back to the patriarch over 8 generations, as otherwise Peter would not have exactly fitted the Cheshire Carden haplotype.

Results have been received from five Tipperary Cardens, as follows:

Arnold Carden lives in Argentina.He and Arthur and Michael J (see below), all members of the Barnane branch of the family, have identical signatures to each other.These signatures, surprisingly, differ from the Cheshire haplotype and therefore from their “paper” ancestor, the patriarch, by six mutations, far too many for biological descent from the patriarch.It is therefore certain that somewhere between the patriarch and the common ancestor of Arnold, Arthur and Michael J there was a “non-paternal event.”This common ancestor was John Carden, born 1699, great grandson of the patriarch.He was an only child and there is some evidence that he himself was the child of a certain John Barry, so perhaps it is the Barry DNA signature which we carry.Arnold’s and Arthur’s common ancestor was born as recently as 1818, but the Michael J’s result greatly helped by taking the birth of the common ancestor back to 1699.

Arthur Carden, the organiser of this study, and of the 1998 Carden Gathering, lives near London.See Arnold above.

Michael J Carden is a member of the Barnane-in-Australia branch and lives near Canberra.The identity of his DNA signature to that of Arnold and Arthur proves that the branch is correctly named – proof of the connection to Barnane did not previously exist, though there were strong indications.His participation (paid for jointly by Arthur and his brother Michael) has therefore been doubly useful.

Dr Peter O’Neil Carden lives in NSW, Australia.He is a member of the Killard branch of the family, descended from the younger son of the patriarch.As mentioned above, Peter’s signature is identical to the Cheshire Haplotype, which proves that the patriarch’s signature was the same.Peter is interested in probability theory and has made some contributions to the understanding of DNA links and mutations.

Richard A P Carden lives in Norfolk.He will be remembered by many who attended the Carden Gathering in Cheshire in 1998 for his financial management and administration of the event, as well as for his cheerfulness.He is a member of the Fishmoyne branch, descended from a younger grandson of the patriarch than is the Barnane branch.His signature differs by two mutations from that of the patriarch.There is a “reasonable” chance of about 1 in 20 of this happening in 10 generations, so a non-parental event need not have occurred in his case.

Penshurst / Chiddingstone Cardens

It is likely that the Cardens of Penshurst and Chiddingstone, Kent (villages near Tonbridge), are descended from the John Carden of Tilston, Cheshire, mentioned under Brighton below.This idea is supported to some degree by the results for two participants –

Mike Carden (Michael J), of Cumbria, exhibits two mutations (counting a double-jump as one mutation in accordance with advice from Oxford Ancestors) from the Cheshire haplotype.There is better chance that he has a common ancestor with those with exact matches to that haplotype than quoted for Richard A P above since many more generations may have elapsed. Mike is a member of the Maidstone sub-branch.

Roger Carden of London, a member of the Loraine sub-branch, shares one mutation with Mike, but otherwise fits the Cheshire haplotype exactly. This suggests that their common ancestor, William Carden of Penshurst, born 1760, had the same signature as Roger, and Mike’s second mutation occurred in the six subsequent generations.

Brighton Cardens

There is good evidence, found by Joan Carden of Spain, that the Cardens of Brighton are descended from a Richard Carden born in Cheshire in about 1500.He became Dean of Chichester and paid for the 16th century stained glass window in Tilston church in Cheshire which shows the sling and pheon which form part of the Carden coat of arms.

However the two results obtained for Cardens in Brighton, though identical to each other, are utterly different from the Cheshire haplotype.They were provided by -

Donald Carden, who lives in Luton and is a member of the “Hatter” branch of the Brighton Cardens which included Sir Herbert Carden, known as the “father of modern Brighton.” and

David Carden, who lives in Brighton, and is Town Clerk of a neighbouring town.His result and that of Donald are so far removed from the other results, despite their Cheshire link, that a non-paternal event in their ancestry, perhaps many generations ago, is virtually certain.David’s branch of the Brighton family is known as the “Virgo” branch.He and Donald have a common ancestor in Robert Carden, born 1787, one of whose sons (Samuel Virgo Carden, born 1815) started David’s “Virgo” branch of the Cardens of Brighton, and another (John, born 1821) started Donald’s “Hatter” branch.So the non-paternal event occurred in 1787 or before.

Another possible explanation however might be that Donald’s and David’s are examples ofthe “true” Cheshire signature of a very early Cheshire Carden, and the non-paternal event took place between this early Cheshire Carden and the common ancestor of all the others.I am indebted to Joan Carden for this suggestion.

Other UK Cardens close to the Cheshire Carden haplotype

Ernest Carden, who lives in Cheshire and is a member of the Winsford branch, almost certainly has Cheshire ancestors.This is supported by his DNA result, which shows only one mutation from the Cheshire haplotype, even over 25 markers

Peter L Cardenlives in Australia and is a member of the Randle branch, descended from a William Carden whose son Randle Carden was born about 1830 in the old county of Flint, just over the border from Cheshire.His daughter Natalie persuaded him to participate.His signature also exhibits one mutation from the Cheshire Carden haplotype so it is confirmed that his branch is a Cheshire one.This mutation is the same as that of Scott, below.

Peter W Cardenlives near Liverpool.His sister Hazel Poole has been trying for many years to trace their ancestor, a soldier, whose son was born in Halifax about 1847.Since Peter’s signature is three mutations away from the Cheshire haplotype, his Cheshire origin is somewhat doubtful.

Tony Carden (Dr A B G Carden) of Melbourne, Australia is a member of the Bendigo branch, the origins of which have been traced back to a town in Shropshire, just over the border from Cheshire and only a few miles from the hamlet of Carden.As perhaps might be expected, he has a DNA signature identical to the Cheshire haplotype.

Lincolnshire Cardens

Only one Lincolnshire Carden is a participant so far.

Stephen Carden, who lives in Spain not far from Joan Carden, has a DNA signature totally different from both the Cheshire haplotype and the East Kent haplotype.Therefore, either there is a non-paternal event in his ancestry, or the Lincolnshire Cardens have their own unique origin.

Cardens of Virginia, USA

Chris, Chuck, James E (rather surprisingly, see below), Judson and Raymond (12 markers), and Eddie (25 markers) all have DNA signatures identical to the Cheshire haplotype So does Greg (25 markers), though his VA roots are unproven.It seems clear that they are all directly descended from Cheshire ancestors, perhaps from a single immigrant.

Chris Carden and his sister Beth Macdonald, together with Chuck below, have traced their ancestry firmly to Robert Carden who died in Goochland County, Virginia in 1785, and possibly, three further generations back, to a passenger from England aboard the “Speedwell.”Beth writes:“Chuck’s and our ancestry probably converge back with my Robert James Carden (c.1702 VA) and Phyllis Woolbanks, whom Chuck lists as Robert [above].That particular Robert is a huge mystery and is not proven for Chris and me.”,

Chuck Carden (Charles W Carden), see above, is a retired Marine and Chief of Police who came to the Carden Gathering in Cheshire in 1998, and is soon to move to Cape Cod from Colorado.

Eddie Carden (Edward Glen) lives in Virginia but was born in Tennessee. His 25-marker result matches the Cheshire Haplotype exactly.His earliest proven ancestor is John Cardin of Mecklenberg Couny Virginia, the father of Reubin Carden born about 1775.

Greg Carden lives in Alabama.His Virginia ancestry is not proven, though there are sufficient indications for him to be included, at least for the time being, in this group. He and Eddie are the only members of this group, so far, to have obtained a 25-marker result. (Greg’s mother):

James E (Eugene) Carden writes:“I am African American and have never met another "Black" Carden except for my immediate family until about 2 years ago when I visited Halifax County (Scottsburg) Virginia. I think this is where my Great Grandfather, James H. Carden was born.”

Judson Wayne Carden lives in Alabama.His third cousin Elisa Sanford persuaded him to submit a sample.His earliest proven ancestor is Leonard Carden, born about 1793 in Virginia. (Elisa)

Raymond Bell’s grandfather changed his name from Cardin to Bell for no apparent reason.His daughter Linda Tieman has traced his ancestry back to Leonard Carden, born about 1785 in Virginia.Raymond lives in Georgia, and his daughter in Texas.

(Linda Tiemann)

Cardens of North Carolina, USA

Richard below have DNA signatures identical to the Cheshire haplotype, and undoubtedly share ancestors in Cheshire with all those with similar signatures.Greg, above, and Scott are the only members of the Virginia and North Carolina groups to have obtained 25-marker results so farIt is hoped that others will do so to clarify the relationships.

Richard J Carden lives in Michigan.His oldest known ancestor is William Carden who was born in 1755 in Orange County, North Carolina and who died in 1824 in Jasper County Georgia. As mentioned above, his 10-marker signature matches the Cheshire haplotype exactly

Scott Carden.Carol Scarlett, a keen family researcher who came to the Carden Gathering in Cheshire in 1998, traced her distant cousin Scott and persuaded him to submit a sample. His great great grandfather was George Carden born in Orange County, North Carolina in 1828. A 25-marker result has recently been obtained for Scott. One of his original Oxford Ancestors results (not analysed by FTDNA) matches that of Peter L of the Randle branch below.It is not yet clear whether this is a mutation or part of the Cheshire haplotype, but suggests that Scott and Peter L have a common ancestor.A definite mutation in the last of his 25-marker results matches that of Jim of Matlock above, once again suggesting a common ancestor.Neither of these casts any doubt on his Cheshire origin, but they suggest he and Richard J may descend from different immigrants. (Carol Scarlett)

Thor Carden (Thor Foy Carden) and his wife Tricia Swallows Carden live in Tennessee, where Thor is Administrator of the Family Christian Academy.Trish kindly publishes this report on her web site.They have traced Thor’s ancestry to a John Carden who was born about 1776 and died in 1847 in Orange County, North Carolina.Thor’s DNA signature differs from the Cheshire Haplotype by two mutations, so there is only a “reasonable” possibility that he shares an ancestor with others who match more closely. Thor suspects that his father’s exposure to radiation while working on radar during the war might be the reason for these mutations.He has traced a third cousin, Robert L. Carden, who has agreed to submit a sample, the analysis of which will be extremely interesting in this context.

Other Cardens in USA

Bill Carden (William Andrew) lives in Tennessee.His wife Rosemarie has persuaded Bill to submit a sample to help identify his Carden origins.It is identical with the Cheshire Haplotype over all 25 markers, so undoubtedly he has a Cheshire ancestor. Bill’s earliest proven ancestor, Ansel Carden, was also from Tennessee, but if Rosemarie is able to go further back it may be appropriate to include him in one of the groups above.

Jerry Carden (Jerry Alan Carden) who lives in Illinois, traces his ancestry to a William Carden, born in Yorkshire, England in 1795. William and his wife came to the US in 1819.His DNA signature exactly matches the Cheshire Haplotype, so undoubtedly he shares an ancestor in Cheshire around 1500 with all those who have the same DNA signature.He has recently obtained a 25-marker result, showing two unique mutations, which may one day enable a link to others in England to be proven.

Leo Carden (Robert Leo Carden) was born in Oklahoma, and before retirement was a teacher and then for many years Director of a Technology Center.His relative Carrie Bench has traced their ancestry to William Carden, born about 1755 in Georgia.The first three known generations lived in Georgia and the next three in Alabama.

Mayo-Sligo Group

As mentioned above, it is remarkable that the signatures of two participants from Co Sligo are close to the Cheshire Haplotype, despite the fact that Cardens were to be found in these west coast Irish counties as early as 1617, well before a Carden emigrated from Cheshire to Tipperary about 1665 (and before Cromwell banished his opponents to the western counties).Presumably their ancestor emigrated separately from England in earlier years, perhaps in Norman or Elizabethan times.

Two other participants have rather different signatures, which tends to reduce the force of the above.

Gerard Carden, who lives in Glasgow, Scotland, has traced his ancestry to Mathew Carden, whose son Patrick was married in Co Sligo in 1880.His DNA signature is identical to the Cheshire haplotype as regards 9 out of the 10 markers analysed by Oxford Ancestors, but shows a triple-jump in the remaining one, which they regard as two mutations.This suggests a common ancestor with those possessing the exact Cheshire haplotype about 20 or 30 generations ago, which means this ancestor might have lived in about 1400, presumably in Cheshire

Owen Carden, who lives in Leeds, England, was persuaded by his nephew Des Curley of Co Sligo, to submit a sample for analysis.This turned out to be identical to Gerard’s, which is not surprising, as they are related.

Fred Carden of Pennsylvania, who traces his ancestry to Killala, Co Mayo, has a DNA signature which differs at four points from the Cheshire haplotype, which would normally be enough to deny a common ancestor in the past millennium.However one of them is in the same marker as the mutation possessed by Gerard and Owen, but the remaining three are probably enough to deny a relationship.Fred has ordered a 25-marker analysis, which will be very interesting, especially if other Mayo/Sligo Cardens do so too.

Terry (Terrence S) Carden of Arizona, a retired physician who traces his ancestry to Ballina, Co Mayo, differs at three points from the Cheshire haplotype, one of which is the same as Gerald, Owen and Fred’s and the other two the same as Fred’s.Terry therefore almost certainly has a common ancestor with Fred.Terry, incidentally, has kindly digitised many hundreds of Mayo parish register entries obtained by Arthur, and will send copies on request.

Fred has ordered a 25-marker test, and if some of the others do so too, and/or some more results from Mayo/Sligo participants are received. perhaps this rather complex situation will be clarified.

East Kent Haplogroup

Two results (both from the original six) define the totally different East Kent haplogroup.It is possible that this group is descended from the Cardon mentioned in the Domesday Book, but that is pure speculation.It is interesting that only these two, out of the 25 or more Cardens who have submitted samples, belong to this group, the remainder almost all belonging to the Cheshire group.If it were not for the similarity of Ron’s and Bill’s results it might have been supposed that a non-paternal event in their ancestry prevented them from matching the Cheshire haplotype (like for instance, Donald and David of Brighton).

Ron Carden (Ronald George) lives in Ashford, Kent.He is a keen genealogist and studies Cardens throughout East Kent.He has traced his ancestry convincingly to Thomas Carden, born in Herne, Kent in 1734.Joan Carden of Spain, who belongs to this family, has carried the pedigree back to John Carden of Sheppey, Kent, born 1450.

Bill Carden (William George) lives in Faversham, Kent.He shared the cost of his DNA analysis with his cousin Ian who lives in New Zealand.The result was virtually identical to Ron’s, which was a welcome surprise, as it was previously only guessed that his great grandfather, Sergeant George Carden, born 1818 in France, had Kent ancestors.Subsequent research suggests that the latter’s father was born in Littlebourne, Kent and fought at the battle of Waterloo.

Surname Variants

DNA analysis may make it possible to shown whether or not names such as Carwardine, Calladine, Kerwin, Kenderdine and so on are indeed variants of the Cawarden name, which changed to Carden in Cheshire.So far only one individual has come forward.

Taylor Cowardin traces his ancestry to Peter Carwardine who came to Maryland from England in 1656.Unfortunately his DNA signature is totally different from that of every other participant, so either there is no link between the surnames, or there was a “non-paternal event” at some time, perhaps many generations ago,which broke the chain whereby the Y-chromosome is passed, unchanging, from father to son.

FTDNA’s three extra markers

As more results are received from FTDNA, attention can be directed at the three extra markers upon which they report.Until the switch to FTDNA was made, the Cheshire Carden haplotype was only defined in terms of the 10 markers reported by Oxford Ancestors.

So far, among those who exactly match the Cheshire Haplotype on the 9 markers common to OA and FTDNA, all have identical values for two of the extra three, but not for the other, DYS 385b, for which two values appear:

15 Jim, Tom (Matlock), Eddie, Greg, James E, Judson (Virginia).

16 Peter L (Randle), Scott (NC)

We cannot yet be sure therefore whether for DYS385b the Cheshire haplotype is 15 or 16, although 15 seems the more probable.A value of 15 is also supported by Ernest’s result.If 15 is correct, then Peter L and Scott have a distinguishing mutation (and in any case possibly have a common ancestor).

Differences like these can be very useful in making connections between branches, but surprisingly few have arisen.

25-marker Signatures

FTDNA offer to report on 25 markers.9 participants have already taken advantage of this.The analysis can either be done when a sample is first submitted, by paying $169 (instead of $99 for a 12-marker report}, or in the form of an upgrade at a later date, costing $90.

The advantages of 25-marker tests are twofold.First, they are able to identify much more effectively the closeness of relationships.For instance, at present we know that a large proportion of our participants share a common ancestor in Cheshire, but we are unable to group them into branches of the family.With 25-markers to consider it may be possible to allocate them to a number of groups of individuals who share, or nearly share, identical results for all 25 markers.Second, with 25 markers it is possible to estimate the number of generations to the most recent common ancestor considerably better.For instance it is calculated that two individuals with identical 10-marker results have a common ancestor who lived about 15 generations ago, plus or minus a very wide margin of error.For two individuals with identical 25-marker results the corresponding estimate is 7 generations.

It is to be hoped that many participants will be prepared to pay for 25-marker tests, either when they first join the project or subsequently.Unfortunately all those whose sample was analysed by Oxford Ancestors will have to start again from scratch with FTDNA, paying $169, although several of the 10 mentioned above have taken advantage of a special offer of $149 for “Oxford Conversion.

The Y-STR database

This is a fast-growing collection of DNA results for forensic purposes covering most countries in Europe (http://ystr.charite.de).Unfortunately only 7 of the markers in the database coincide with the 10 used by Oxford Ancestors or the 12 used by FTDNA.Using these seven, 267 exact matches were found for the basic Cheshire Group signature out of a database of 9,685.This means that about 1 in 35 men in Europe share the same numbers with our Cheshire Group, and this is one of the most frequently found set of numbers, only one step away from what is called the “Atlantic Modal Haplotype.”

Arthur, Ernest (both 14 for DYS 392), and Thor (12 for DYS 391) all possess rather rare mutations.If others are found to match their results this will be highly significant.No matches whatever were found for the set of 7 usable May-Sligo figures provided by Gerard and Owen, so theirs is a very rare set of numbers!

As regards the East Kent Group, using the 7 available markers, there are only 4 exact matches for Ron/Bill’s result out of a database which had increased to 10,035 by the time the comparison was made.The matches are one each in Switzerland, London, Southern Ireland and Tuscany, so this tells us only that the East Kent Group has a very rare signature and makes a relationship between Ron and Bill virtually certain.[What is more, their common result of 9 for DYS 388 is, according to Oxford Ancestors, also very rare and outside the normal range for this marker.]

Ybase

There is an interesting site at where it is possible to compare DNA signatures with those of people who have entered theirs.

For instance, on entering the numbers for our Cheshire Haplotype, there is found to be one surname, Rader, which matches on 21 out of the 26 markers, 12 surnames which match on 20 of the 26 and many more which match on 19 or less.

If I receive no objection in the next month or so, I will submit our Cheshire and East Kent haplotypes as permanent entries in this database, so that those with other surnames can have some fun finding a match with us.Of course any of us can enter his own numbers (temporarily or permanently) to see what he finds.

Other comments

It is notable that the majority of our American participants match the Cheshire haplotype exactly, and most of the others with only one or two mutationsThis proves that almost all have Cheshire descent beyond doubt and shows that no non-paternal events have occurred in their ancestry.It is a pity, in a way, that so few exhibit any mutations, which would have made it possible to establish groups.

Huge numbers of Americans left Ireland for a better life, but only two of our participants did so.It will also be noted that the oldest proven ancestor of almost every participant from USA lived in USA before independence, long before the days of Ellis Island or the Irish famine.

But it should not be supposed that our 16 American participants are truly representative of the thousands of Cardens in the USA!

Results awaited

The following are believed to have sent samples for analysis, or are about to do so, but have not yet received their results

Dave (David L) Carden of North Carolina.

Mark Carden of Co. Sligo, now living in London..

Fred Carden (Cheryl’s husband) of North Carolina.

Robert L. Carden, of, Haw River, NC, USA, cousin of Thor above.

Mike Collins, for his uncle in Texas.

Ted (Prof Edward) Carden of California (Rigsby, UK, branch).

Colin M Carden of Somerset, UK.

George Carden of Georgia USA.

Several others are making up their minds whether to participate or not, or are trying to persuade male relatives to do so.

Crediton Devon by jmc4 - Church Explorer

5 2

Sir John Sully of Iddesleigh/ Ash Reiguy 1281–1387 and wife Isobel who once lay in the north transept

John died in his bed in 1387 at the age of 106 despite having been "armed" for 80 years

John was the son of William Sully and wife Margery

He m c1330 Isobel dc1367 (The Patent Rolls for 24th April, 1330 say that John de Suly and his wife Isabellla described as the widow of John de Chaucombe, received a pardon for marrying without a licence)

Children

1 daughter (?)

(Robert Chedder and Joan his wife, appear to have been the possessors of considerable property, including the manors of Iddesleigh and Ashreigny in 1383-8 (except one acre of land in the same manor of Ash Reigny and the advowson of the church of the same manor) which Sir John de Sully then held for his life, and after his death on 15 days of Easter (12th April, 1388), 11 Richard II., it was declared that the same manors and tenements should remain to the said Robert and Joan and the heirs of the said Robert. - Robert Cheddre / Cheddar was in all probability the heir of Sir John who had made some previous settlement on him - Robert Cheddre / Cheddar m Joan daughter of Simon Hanham / Hannap of Gloucester having 1 son Thomas Cheddar 1442 m Isabel Scobahull of South-Pool . (Joan m2 Sir Thomas Brooke flic.kr/p/iNwbFv and were parents of Thomas Brooke, Lord Cobham 1439 )

Due to his loyalty and fighting career John was a favourite of the king and Black Prince being made a Knight of the Garter in 1361 on the death of Reginald Cobham www.flickr.com/photos/52219527@N00/748108213/

In December 1313 he was summoned for service in Scotland by Edward II and on 8 June, 1315, he was included in a summons issued by the king at Berwick on Tweed. In Autumn 1316 John de Sulle was listed as "intending to serve in Scotland" and also in 1316 was issued a summons for service in repelling the Scots at Berwick-on-Tweed. John was possibly at Bannockburn but no mention is made of this defeat.

In March 1332 John was ordered to attend Edward III at Newcastle "with horse and harness" for the Scottish campaign. In July 1333 John fought at the Battle of Halidon Hill and a few months later at the Siege and recapture of Berwick. In 1335 John was in John de Moelees company again in Scotland.

On 12 July, 1338, John was in France under the command of William de Montacute, Earl of Salisbury. John said to be aged 65, fought at the battle of Crecy 1346 in the retinue of the Earl of Arundel, and in 1350 was present at the sea battle of Winchelsea, . In 1352 John received from the Black Prince a payment of £40 pa to be retained for life in his retinue He was later appointed surveyor of game in Cornwall and sheriff of Devon and Cornwall but was unable to take up the post, accompanying Prince Edward to Gascony in 1355.

John now said to be 75 fought at the battle of Poitiers 1356, and 2 weeks after the battle Prince Edward increased his annual payment by 40 Marks pa. In 1359 John was still in the service or Prince Edward and took part in the Rheims campaign.

On 24 April, 1361 John was granted by Edward III once pa to have 1 shot with his bow, 1 course with his hounds and 1 chase for his dog "Bercellette" in any of the royal forests, parks or chases in the realm. John accompanied Prince Edward to Aquitaine in 1363 and was present at the battle of Nájera 1367. John remained in France and received letters of protection in 1370 to serve in Aquitaine. After the death of the Prince in 1376 he retired to Devon

At last dwelling on his mortality on 19th August 1384, the prior and convent of Frithelstock, near Torrington entered into an engagement to celebrate a daily mass for the souls of Sir John Sully, Isabel his wife, William his father, Margery his mother, and Sir Henry Sully and Joan his wife, the grandfather and grandmother of Sir John.

On 2 July 1386 John gave evidence at his Manor in Iddesleigh, before John Kentwode, as John was unable to travel to the enquiry due to his age. John testified on behalf of Richard le Scrope who claimed to wear the coat of arms azure, a bend which was also claimed by Robert Grosvenor. Richard le Scrope had 207 testifiers including Geoffrey Chaucer, and Robert Grosvenor 149, and an additional 55 testified seeing the arms on battlefields but not attributed to any knight. It was normal practice to give an account of their lives and Sir John de Sully and Sir John Chydioke claimed to be centenarians. John claimed also that his father had lived to over 100 years of age. At the enquiry Richard Baker was John's esquire and had served Sir John for 40 of his 60 years.

www.themcs.org/characters/John Sully.htm

www.archive.org/stream/reportandtransa03artgoog/reportand...

Sir John died in 1387 at the remarkable age of 106. We don’t know when Lady Isobel died, but it seems likely that it was at least twenty years earlier. One authority says that they had a single child, a daughter. There is a mass of evidence in the National Archives, in the registers of the Bishops of Exeter, in diocesan records, in sundry other written sources and in many works printed after 1500 which taken together make a persuasive case that he was, indeed, well over a hundred years old when he died.

What proof is there that he might have lived to be over 100 years old? The single most important source of information survives in the National Archives in Kew. It is the detailed record of a case which came before the Court of Chivalry between 1385 and 1390 which concerned a dispute between the very wealthy Sir Richard le Scrope (of Bolton Abbey, in the Dales of North Yorkshire) and the slightly less rich Sir Robert Grosvenor (who came from near Chester) over the right to bear a particular design of arms – azure, a bend or (blue with a gold diagonal stripe).

Each knight called dozens of witnesses who each testified to the fact that they had seen either Sir Richard (207 testifiers) or Sir Robert (149 testifiers) wearing the arms at battles in which they had fought. A further 58 witnesses didn’t testify for either knight (presumably just declaring that they had seen the arms on a particular battlefield). Sir John de Sully was asked to “depose” for Sir Richard le Scrope, which he did at his manor in Iddesleigh (as he was “unable to travel because of his great age”) on 2nd July, 1386 before the specially appointed commissioner, John Kentwode. Other very old knights testified for one side or the other (a number were in their eighties and a few in their nineties, but of those called only Sir John de Sully and Sir John Chydioke were centenarians). Sir John’s testimony, or deposition, survives with 355 others in the National Archives.

The deposition, together with many other well-researched sources, gives us an idea of just how involved Sir John was in the big battles of the early part of the Hundred Years War with France, with Edward II’s Scottish Campaign of 1313-17 and Edward III’s Scottish victories of 1332-33. The deposition only mentions English victories. There were, however, severe defeats in both Scottish campaigns and in the opening skirmishes of the Hundred Years War – but aged ego dictated that they shouldn’t get a mention!

The Deposition of Sir John Sully, Iddesleigh 1386

“SIR JOHN SULLY, at the age of one hundred and five years and armed eighty years, deposed that he had seen and known the arms of Sir Richard Scrope, borne by Sir Henry Scrope (Sir Richard’s father) at the Battle of Halidon Hill (1333), the field azure, a bend or, with a label argent“.

He afterwards saw the said Sir Henry armed in the same arms at the siege of Berwick (1333); Sir William Scrope (Sir Richard’s older brother who later died in Spain) at the battle of Cressy (Crecy, 1346), so armed with a difference; the said Sir Richard armed in the same arms at the battle of Espagnols-sur-la-mer (the sea battle of Winchelsea, 1350); and afterwards saw the said Sir William Scrope armed in the same arms with the Prince (the Black Prince) at the battle of Poictiers (Poitiers 1356), and the said Sir Richard so armed at the battle of Spain (Najara, 1367).

Sully said he had also seen and known others of the name and lineage armed in the same arms in journeys and expeditions, with differences; and in his time he had always heard that the said arms belonged to Sir Richard Scrope by descent, who, with others of his lineage, had peaceably enjoyed them from beyond the time of memory.

As to Sir Robert Grosvenor, he never saw or heard of him or his ancestors, until the time of his examination”

Sir John’s esquire Richard Baker, added to his master’s testimony by stating briefly that he had served Sir John for forty of his sixty years and that he had seen Sir Richard Scrope and others of his lineage – Sir Henry and Sir William Scrope – bearing azure, a bend or in various “battles, journeys and expeditions”

The Deposition is an outline history of Sir John de Sully’s military career from 1305 until 1367, omitting only mention of his involvement in Edward II’s Scottish campaign. The probable reason for this is given below.

We know of one record (now lost, but which existed until the late 19th) of Sir John’s life before he first wore armour. This was a lease – unfortunately undated, but certainly from around 1300 – in which he is described as “lord of the manor of Ash Reigny (Ashreigny)” – by which a man called Gilbert atte Hole took over a small area of land in Ashreigny from Sully for his lifetime. This lease was kept in the muniment room at Killerton long before the Aclands handed the estate over to the National Trust. I have asked the NT Administrator at Killerton to see if she can trace it (it is quite likely that it was handed over to the Devon Record Office for safe keeping).

If we can accept that Sir John had been armed (worn armour) for 80 years in 1386, ie since around 1305, surviving national records, the Rotuli Scotiae, the Patent Rolls and sundry letters of protection, indicate that the first use of that armour in action was in Edward II’s war against the Scots of 1313-1317.

On 23rd December, 1313 John de Sulley is listed as “having been summoned for service in the Scotch war; on 8th June, 1315, he was included in a summons issued by the king at Berwick on Tweed “for service with horse and arms in repelling the Scotch”; John de Sulle was among those “intending to serve in Scotland” in the autumn of 1316 and the same name was among those included in a summons for service in repelling the Scots at Berwick-on-Tweed also in 1316. (I have prepared a list of the known sources of information for Sir John’s life which is available to anyone who is interested).

An involvement in the battle of Bannockburn in 1314 wasn’t something that any knight would want to include in a inventory of battle honours for the Court of Chivalry – in fact this wasn’t a list where any defeat should figure – and the whole of Edward II’s Scottish campaign has probably been airbrushed from Sir John’s CV for that reason. Bannockburn truly was the nadir of English military history for the 500 years from Hastings to the loss of Calais in 1558. The fact that Sir John started the Scottish campaign in 1313, and is mentioned again as involved in it in 1316 makes it is very unlikely that he wasn’t at Bannockburn in 1314.

The armour which Sir John put on in around 1305 and in which he fought that first Scottish war was completely different to that in which his effigy is Holy Cross is clad. That armour was very similar to that worn by the crusaders. There is a stone effigy in Iddesleigh church – probably that of Sir John’s grandfather, Sir Henry de Sully – which is wearing this form. It comprised a suit of chain mail called a hawberk which covered the body and upper legs and arms, and gloves of mail to protect the hands. A coif de mailes was worn over the head and a linen surcoat covered the mail of the body. Armour fashion changed down the centuries as ways of waging war changed.

A John de Sullee appears on a feudal proffer roll (a list of those offering service) on behalf of John Fitz Nicholas in 1322.

The Patent Rolls for 24th April, 1330 (the Rolls are State Records) tell us that John de Suly and his wife Isabellla who is described as the widow of John de Chaucombe, received a pardon for marrying without a licence. I’m afraid that Isabel hardly gets a footnote in the rest of the documents which I mention in this article! That the couple had an only child, a daughter (name unknown) is suggested in one C16th history of Devon (by Polwhele).

In March 1332 Sully was ordered to attend Edward III at Newcastle “with horse and harness” at the start of his Scottish campaign. He was then just over 50 years old, a “good age” in medieval terms. He fought in the Siege of Berwick and the Battle of Halidon Hill, both very rough battles and fine English victories in which no prisoners were taken.

In 1335, Sir John was again serving in Scotland, in Sir John de Moeles’s company.

On 10th July, 1338, Sir John received another “call up” – he was ordered to be ready to set sail in the company of William de Montacute, Earl of Salisbury. This was the start of the first campaign in the Hundred Years War against France (which was to last, on and off, until 1453).

The first big land battle of the war and one in which Sir John took part, was Crecy. He was 65 years old when it took place in 1346 and fought in the retinue of the Earl of Arundel. It was, of course, a crushing English victory in which many thousands of French and Genoese knights and foot soldiers died. No prisoners were taken in this conflict.

Apart from the Battle of Poitiers, very few prisoners were taken in the battles of the C14th or for that matter at Agincourt in 1415. As one essayist has put it: “The predictable fate of a soldier, noble or otherwise, who, finding himself on the loosing side of a fourteenth-century battle, failed to make good his escape, was not to be taken prisoner. It was to die.”

In the taking of Caen (in Normandy) on the way to Crecy, the “mooning” incident occurred. Several hundred Norman soldiers, in an act of defiance, exposed their rear ends to the English archers (the Scots, the traditional allies of the French, have exposed other areas of their anatomy during battle in a similar way by lifting their kilts). Many paid a high price for doing so. We can’t know, of course, whether Sir John witnessed the exhibition!

In 1350 Sir John was present at the sea battle of Winchelsea, another victory. In this engagement English ships forced a fleet of Spanish ships loaded with treasure from the French port of Sluys across thechannel into Rye Bay (off Dungeness), where they were captured. The battle got its name from the fact that it was watched by Edward III’s wife, Queen Phillipa, from what is now called the “Look-Out”, on the sea cliffs at Fairleigh, near Winchelsea (Sussex).

In 1352 Sir John entered into an indenture with the Black Prince by which he received a stipend of £40 a year for life (which was paid by the estates the prince held in Cornwall as Duke and is recorded in the “Council Book of the Duchy of Cornwall” – now held in the National Archive). This regular income alone made him a very wealthy man in medieval terms.

Booty was an important element of a knight’s wealth. He was paid a retainer by his lord (in Sir John’s case, the Black Prince), but a victorious campaign such as that against France of the 1340’s and 50’s, meant that a great deal of pooled booty was shared out between everyone involved with, as ever, the upper ranks benefiting most. Overall, ransom was far less important than booty, because so few prisoners were taken.

Prisoners were taken, however, and on a large scale, in the next big battle in which we know Sir John was involved – Poitiers in 1356. In this conflict fewer than 7,000 Englishmen faced more than 20,000 Frenchmen and they completely overwhelmed them The French King Jean II and a host of other well-born prisoners, all worth great ransoms (King Jean’s was fixed at 3,000,000 crowns), were carried with the vast spoils of the expedition to Bordeaux. Massive rewards were given all round – both to the big players and to the slightly lesser mortals such as Sir John de Sully.

Sir John was 75 years old when he fought at Poitiers. A fortnight after the action the Black Prince increased the pension-for-life he had given him in 1352 by a further 40 marks (around £27) per annum in recognition of the service he had rendered at the battle.

In 1359, still serving with the Black Prince, Sully took part in the Rheims campaign.

At the age of nearly eighty (on 24th April, 1361), Sir John was granted a very special privilege by the king. The document by which this was done is still in state records, the Patent Rolls. By the scroll Sully was allowed: Once in every year during his life, in any of the royal forests, parks or chases in the realm, to have one shot with his bow, one course with his hounds, and one chase for his dog called “Bercellette”.

On 23rd August, 1361, the first St George’s day after the death of Reginald, Lord Cobham, one of the twenty-five “First Founders” of the Order of the Garter, Sir John was admitted in his place, becoming (by date of appointment) the thirty-ninth knight.

This choice by Edward III, although he may have been heavily “leant-on” by his son the Black Prince, is evidence that, given that he wasn’t of noble lineage – and very few other members of the order were not of noble descent – Sir John must have both possessed some really outstanding military skills and have performed valuable service in other fields.

There are records of the Robes of the Order being sent to him on several occasions between 1362 and 1387 and the plate of his arms was still in place in St George’s Chapel, Windsor in Charles the Second’s day (in the ninth stall on the Prince’s side).

The last full-scale battle mentioned in the deposition – and as far as we know, the last conflict in which Sir John was involved – was that of Najera (sometimes spelt Najara and called la bataille de Spaigne in the deposition) on 3rd April, 1367. Sully was about 86 years old when he pulled his armour on for the last time!

On 8th June, 1376, the Black Price died, almost certainly attended at his death bed by Sir John. On 19th August, 1384, when Sir John’s mind had obviously turned to higher things when he arranged for the prior and convent of Frithelstock (N Devon) to hold daily chantry services for the souls of himself (when appropriate!), his wife Isobel, his father William, his mother Margery and Sir Henry and Lady Joan de Sully, his grandfather and grandmother.

On 2nd July, 1386, John Kermode, one of the commissioners in the le Scrope and Grosvenor controversy, went from Plymouth to Iddesleigh Manor where he took the depositions of Sir John de Sully, then 106 years old, and his page, Richard Baker.

Other deposers for le Scrope included John of Gaunt, his son Henry Bolingbroke (the future Henry IV), Henry Percy (a.k.a. Harry Hotspur), Geoffrey Chaucer and Owen Glendower. With this impressive array of people testifying for him and many others, le Scrope eventually won the case (although it took a full five years for it to go through the courts – obviously there were “fat cat” lawyers around in the C14th !)

In his deposition Sir John only mentions those battles where he had a clear recollection of seeing the le Scrope arms (in some form), in fact, in his deposition he only mentions English victories! There were certainly other battles and skirmishes in which he fought but could not remember seeing azure, a bend or during the conflict.

The armour type in which he is shown on his tomb effigy is camail or aventail armour, named after the big mail neck protection which was attached to the steel cap, or bascinet. A sleeveless mail shirt was worn which was covered by a leather jupon. Steel armour was worn on the legs and arms, with steel and leather gauntlets and sharp-toed sollerets on the feet. The next style of armour, introduced about 15 years after Sir John’s death, was full Lancastrian plate armour.

Why should Sir John de Sully of Iddesleigh / Ashreigney have his tomb in Holy Cross, Crediton.? He died in 1387, probably in a manor he owned in Sandford (which was called Rookford). This was certainly fairly easily accessible to both Iddesleigh and Ashreigney (where there are many mentions of Sir John in the parish records – he was patron of both benefices). Why wasn’t his body taken to one of his own churches? The reason for this must surely be that, in medieval eyes, the status of a collegiate church, such as Crediton as a final resting place was greatly superior to that of a fairly modest country church such as Iddesleigh or Ashreigney. Crediton was anyway chosen (though possibly not by him), as his burial place and what was once an impressive monument to him and his wife was erected in the north transept, probably sometime in the 1390’s.

The earliest note which we have of his tomb being in the north transept is in the will of Thomas Barton, a Canon of Exeter Cathedral, in 1415, in which he (Barton) leaves £20 in gold to Holy Cross “towards the construction of a new window, the raising of the walls, and for timber for the roof of the north transept of Crediton Church “in quo Johannes Sully miles jacet” (in which John de Sully, Knight, lies). This is the first of many mentions of the tomb in succeeding centuries. The battering and the moving round to which the tomb has been subjected down the centuries has left it far from perfect. Facial features of both effigies have been rendered more or less unrecognisable and the hands of each effigy have disappeared (together with Sir John’s feet and Lady Isobel’s arms).

Because it was sited in the collegiate part of pre-Reformation Holy Cross the tomb was probably roughly handled during the Reformation (from about 1530 – 1550), but it is likely that most damage occurred in the mid-seventeenth century and during the move from the north transept to its present home.

www.creditonparishchurch.org.uk/history/sir-john-de-sully/

Julia&Keld www.findagrave.com/memorial/58133384/isobel-de_sully

- Collegiate church of the Holy Cross and the Mother of Him who hung thereon, Crediton, Devon

Julia&Keld www.findagrave.com/memorial/58133384/isobel-de_sully churchmonumentsgazetteer.co.uk/Devon-2.html#Crediton_-_Ch...

One of the best visualisations of systems and probability by Philip McMaster

Baiji Freshwater Dolphin is now extinct by chinaski007

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The Baiji Yangtze Dolphin is with all probability extinct. On Wednesday, in the city of Wuhan in central China, a search expedition, under the direction of the Institute for Hydrobiology Wuhan and the Swiss-based baiji.org Foundation, drew to a finish without any results. During the six-week expedition scientists from six nations desperately searched the Yangtze in vain.

CARDEN DNA PROJECT_Page_2 by James Cook

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