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laplace transforms Laplace Transform comes under integral transform that is used in so many areas of mathematics applications that relates to physics and engineering. Laplace transform check’s a function and if modification is require than changes in its instance. Laplace transform was first introduced by a great mathematician Pierre-Simon Laplace. He can use transform in any theory but he used it in his Probability Theory. Laplace transform and Fourier Transform has various similarities and difference.
law of total probability The law of total probability states that if (An : n = 1, 2, 3…) is a finite part of a sample space and event An is a measurable then for the other event B of the same probability space.he term law of probability is sometimes also known as law of alternatives. The law of total probability theorem is often written as follows P( A ) = P ( A ∩ B ) + P ( A ∩ B’ ).
The mathematical probability of a common cat doing exactly as it pleases is the one scientific absolute in the world. — Lynn M. Osband
textures with many thanks to Kerstin Frank.
Henry P. McKean has an outstanding record of research in the areas of Probability Theory, Partial Differential Equations, Complex Function Theory and Hamiltonian Mechanics. Since his 1955 Ph.D. from Princeton, he has published approximately 120 scientific papers and five monographs. He has been a Guggenheim Fellow and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the National Academy of Sciences. His research has been especially influential on such topics as one-dimensional diffusion processes (which play a central role in modern mathematical finance), the Boetzmann Equation (from Statistical Physics) and the complex geometry of integrable systems.
David E. Bell, Harvard Business School: Policy, probability and preference
The conference Systems Analysis 2015 highlights recent advances, current lacunas, and untapped disciplinary potentials in the field of systems analysis, with the aim of demonstrating the unique prowess of systems thinking for navigating a swiftly changing and increasingly complex world.
More information: sa2015.iiasa.ac.at/
IIASA Systems Analysis 2015, Photo: Matthias Silveri | IIASA
The seventh graders studied theoretical and experimental probability. The students conducted trials to determine whether two 2-player dice games were fair games (games in which each player has an equal probability of winning). Students identified the sample space in order to calculate the theoretical probabilities; the class then compiled its data in a shared Google Sheet and observed that the experimental probability approached the theoretical probability as the number of trials increased.
The probability of principitation was only 20-30%. The rain just came down that forced me to pull out the disposable poncho in a conservation park. All I prayed was no lightning and bolt. Thankfully, I bumped into this fellow while it's raining a bit heavier. It did not fly away. We made acquaitnace through my lens.
Rohani amil Saif Ali Shah Kazmi +92 344 3331134,World Famous Give me one probability change your life. We offer the going with organizations to deal with your beginning and end issues 1: help to get back your treasured one's trust. 2: stop parcel and division. 3: issue in guideline, 4: issue in marriage, 5: issue in bussines, 6: issue in prosperity and propel, 7: issue in outside experience, 8: issue in business, 9: life partner spouse issue, 10: connections, 11: horoscope make or match, . handle your any issue just by one call. Each issue will be clarified with complete confirmation and puzzle. certifiable acknowledge can handle each issue. Most of my sisters, kin, mothers and young ladies that had been confused from fake aamil's, divine prophet , bangalis, baba's can contact by understanding the last light of solutionmanpasand shadi,manpasand shadi uk,manpasand shadi ka taweez,manpasand shadi ka wazifa,manpasand shadi karne ke upay,manpasand shadi karne ki dua,manpasand shadi ke upay,manpasand shadi ki dua,manpasand shadi k liye wazifa,manpasand shadi wazifa,manpasand shadi ka amal,manpasand shadi,manpasand shadi.com,manpasand shaadi.com,man pasand shadi ki dua in hindi,man pasand shadi karne ki dua,man pasand shadi k liye dua,manpasand shadi ke liye dua,man pasand shadi k liye wazifa,manpasand shadi ka mantra,Talaq ka masla,talaq ka masla in quran,talaq ka masla in hindi,talaq ka masla mufti akmal,aik talaq ka masla,3 talaq ka masla,1 talaq ka masla,2 talaq ka masla,istikharah,istikhara signs,istikhara islamqa,istikhara dua in english,istikhara method,istikharah cinta,istikhara shia,istikhara salafi,istikhara for marriage dua,istikhara appeal to english,istikhara dua,istikhara dreams,istikhara for love.istikhara answer,istikhara after fajr,istikhara arabicwazifa meaning,wazifa for baby,wazifa for money,wazifa for love,wazifa for depression,wazifa for job,wazifa for eczema,wazifa for anger,wazifa for unfaltering child,wazifa for house,wazifa,wazifa ayatul kursi,wazifa after fajr namaz,wazifa aulad e narina,wazifa after maghrib,wazifa allkala jadu ka ilaj,kala jadu ka tor ki dua,kala jadu ka tor wazifa,kala jadu ka tor,kala jadu khatam karne ki dua,kala jadu ka tarika in urdu,kala jadu ka tor taweez,kala jadu ka ilaj quran se,mohabbat k liye kala jadu,kala jadu ke symptoms,kala jadu ke asrat,kala jadu ke tarike,kala jadu ke totke,kala jadu ki alamat,kala jadu ke upay,kala jadu k asraat,kala jadu ka taweez,kala jadu,
Children use their probability and chance skills to create a game that is fair on the Wheel of Chance. Photo courtesy of Children’s Museum of Houston for Imagine It! The Children’s Museum of Atlanta.
Rohani amil Saif Ali Shah Kazmi +92 344 3331134,World Famous Give me one probability change your life. We offer the going with organizations to deal with your beginning and end issues 1: help to get back your treasured one's trust. 2: stop parcel and division. 3: issue in guideline, 4: issue in marriage, 5: issue in bussines, 6: issue in prosperity and propel, 7: issue in outside experience, 8: issue in business, 9: life partner spouse issue, 10: connections, 11: horoscope make or match, . handle your any issue just by one call. Each issue will be clarified with complete confirmation and puzzle. certifiable acknowledge can handle each issue. Most of my sisters, kin, mothers and young ladies that had been confused from fake aamil's, divine prophet , bangalis, baba's can contact by understanding the last light of solutionmanpasand shadi,manpasand shadi uk,manpasand shadi ka taweez,manpasand shadi ka wazifa,manpasand shadi karne ke upay,manpasand shadi karne ki dua,manpasand shadi ke upay,manpasand shadi ki dua,manpasand shadi k liye wazifa,manpasand shadi wazifa,manpasand shadi ka amal,manpasand shadi,manpasand shadi.com,manpasand shaadi.com,man pasand shadi ki dua in hindi,man pasand shadi karne ki dua,man pasand shadi k liye dua,manpasand shadi ke liye dua,man pasand shadi k liye wazifa,manpasand shadi ka mantra,Talaq ka masla,talaq ka masla in quran,talaq ka masla in hindi,talaq ka masla mufti akmal,aik talaq ka masla,3 talaq ka masla,1 talaq ka masla,2 talaq ka masla,istikharah,istikhara signs,istikhara islamqa,istikhara dua in english,istikhara method,istikharah cinta,istikhara shia,istikhara salafi,istikhara for marriage dua,istikhara appeal to english,istikhara dua,istikhara dreams,istikhara for love.istikhara answer,istikhara after fajr,istikhara arabicwazifa meaning,wazifa for baby,wazifa for money,wazifa for love,wazifa for depression,wazifa for job,wazifa for eczema,wazifa for anger,wazifa for unfaltering child,wazifa for house,wazifa,wazifa ayatul kursi,wazifa after fajr namaz,wazifa aulad e narina,wazifa after maghrib,wazifa allkala jadu ka ilaj,kala jadu ka tor ki dua,kala jadu ka tor wazifa,kala jadu ka tor,kala jadu khatam karne ki dua,kala jadu ka tarika in urdu,kala jadu ka tor taweez,kala jadu ka ilaj quran se,mohabbat k liye kala jadu,kala jadu ke symptoms,kala jadu ke asrat,kala jadu ke tarike,kala jadu ke totke,kala jadu ki alamat,kala jadu ke upay,kala jadu k asraat,kala jadu ka taweez,kala jadu,
How many topics in physics are contained in a simple rainbow produced on the wall (and toilet) by sun shining through a plastic privacy screen?
Well...the light from the sun is composed of many different wavelengths...the distribution of which is dependent on the temperature of the star - which ours is centered on the the yellow. When the the light encounters an optically dense medium (glass or plastic in this case), the light is absorbed by the molecules and passed from molecule to molecule, the probability of which an absorption and emission occurs is described by Feynman's QED. The principle of least action (from D'Alembert and Lagrangian mechanics) finds the maximum probability amplitude, and hence the interaction that occurs, or the direction the light is refracted. The path of light through the medium is dependent on the wavelength and frequency of the light. One can back up to PAM Dirac's relativistic quantum mechanics, ingeniously melded Schrodinger's wave equation and/or Heisenberg's Matrix mechanics with Einstein's relativity, which determined that the only certainty in the universe is the speed of light. Everything else including Newton's fixed stars and time...TIME itself are mutable to make the speed of light constant in every situation. Dirac faced with the actual energy of a particle being the square root of the rest mass and its motion, devised a Hamiltonian that required matricies, later interpreted by Pauli as spin states of particles. Schoedinger and Heisenberg following Bohr's amazing leap of quantized orbits to describe Plancks description of light as quanta....actually they were named by Einstein to describe the photoelectric effect....but Planck needed the quantized description of light to explain the ultraviolet disaster of Rayleigh. Planck was working for the electric company to maximize the light output of municipal utilities at the least cost.... TBC
The seventh graders studied theoretical and experimental probability. The students conducted trials to determine whether two 2-player dice games were fair games (games in which each player has an equal probability of winning). Students identified the sample space in order to calculate the theoretical probabilities; the class then compiled its data in a shared Google Sheet and observed that the experimental probability approached the theoretical probability as the number of trials increased.
Barush: You are everywhere! Ubiquity? No existence in a probability space. If not you, then it’s your brother! Multiverse
@miimseal
are we men or are we women? or are we just machines slave to an electronic beep. a probability wave in space?
The seventh graders studied theoretical and experimental probability. The students conducted trials to determine whether two 2-player dice games were fair games (games in which each player has an equal probability of winning). Students identified the sample space in order to calculate the theoretical probabilities; the class then compiled its data in a shared Google Sheet and observed that the experimental probability approached the theoretical probability as the number of trials increased.
The seventh graders studied theoretical and experimental probability. The students conducted trials to determine whether two 2-player dice games were fair games (games in which each player has an equal probability of winning). Students identified the sample space in order to calculate the theoretical probabilities; the class then compiled its data in a shared Google Sheet and observed that the experimental probability approached the theoretical probability as the number of trials increased.
At the Student Research Poster Session, students have the opportunity to talk with faculty about their summer research projects.
Photo used to promote a new type of chip that uses probability rather than logic to calculate odds. Splashed across many websites, including
Wired.com: www.wired.com/gadgetlab/tag/lyric/
NY Times: www.nytimes.com/2010/08/18/technology/18chip.html?_r=2&am...
EDN: www.edn.com/article/510157-MIT_spin_out_claims_probabilit...
Electronista: www.electronista.com/articles/10/08/17/technology.uses.pr...
Technology Review: www.technologyreview.com/computing/26055/?a=f
Gigaom: gigaom.com/2010/08/16/lyric-semiconducto/
Even made the national paper version of the New York Times
Interesting to note that the New York Times was the only publication with enough brains to check the image metadata and actually credit the image in my name in both web and print. Thank you NY Times.
Many ladies around the globe often have combined reactions on whether they are pregnant or otherwise after experiencing very early signs. With technological advances in the clinical world simplified by simple accessibility to the web, you not have to bother with the likelihood of being pregnant. A great deal of uncertainty surrounds many of the […]
www.gestationaldiabetics.com/you-can-test-your-pregnancy-...
Gabriel Kuri: All probability resolves into form
The Common Guild, 21 Woodlands Terrace, Glasgow, G3 6DF
The seventh graders studied theoretical and experimental probability. The students conducted trials to determine whether two 2-player dice games were fair games (games in which each player has an equal probability of winning). Students identified the sample space in order to calculate the theoretical probabilities; the class then compiled its data in a shared Google Sheet and observed that the experimental probability approached the theoretical probability as the number of trials increased.
Possibilities and Probabilities
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The seventh graders studied theoretical and experimental probability. The students conducted trials to determine whether two 2-player dice games were fair games (games in which each player has an equal probability of winning). Students identified the sample space in order to calculate the theoretical probabilities; the class then compiled its data in a shared Google Sheet and observed that the experimental probability approached the theoretical probability as the number of trials increased.
At the Student Research Poster Session, students share their summer research projects with peers, highlighting the fascinating work that can be done at Lewis & Clark.
Probability of exactly one event While we study probability theory, we say that probability is that branch of mathematics, which is concerned with the possibility of any event to occur, which is the part of any random phenomena. The basic objects of probability we deal with are its variables, events and the process done to find the probability of any event. The study of probability theory is very important in most human activities which often involve the quantitative analysis of large Sets of data. It also helps to conclude certain complex and complicated results, which are otherwise unpredictable.
The seventh graders studied theoretical and experimental probability. The students conducted trials to determine whether two 2-player dice games were fair games (games in which each player has an equal probability of winning). Students identified the sample space in order to calculate the theoretical probabilities; the class then compiled its data in a shared Google Sheet and observed that the experimental probability approached the theoretical probability as the number of trials increased.
CHIPPING, Lancashire
CHESTNUT TREES and a fast-flowing brook lend immediate charm to this village. 'Chipping' in old English means market, and in all probability around a market this village developed. Then in the seventeenth century Chipping began to prosper from the wool trade, maintained by the fleeces of the sheep which grazed on the Bowland Fells. In consequence many of the vilage's finest buildings also date from the seventeenth century.
Undoubtedly, Chipping's most generous benefactor was the seventeenth-century dyer and cloth merchant, John Brabin.
As an inscription reveals, he lived at 22 Talbot Street. When Brabin died in 1683, his will (which he had written the previous year, 'being infirm of body') bequeathed money to ease the plight of the por and also to build a village school. You can discern John Brabin's name, as well as the date 1684, on the gable end of a group of stone-built, terraced almshouses, which were also built with his money.
Cobbled Windy Street is charming; some of the stone-built houses, with their mullioned windows are set at right-angles to the street amid little gardens. Windy street reaches Talbot Street which then stretches down to a bridge over Chipping Brook, from which you can see an ancient water-wheel and, further in the distance, Longridge Fell.
Although the church, dedicated to St. Bartholomew, was founded in 597, its present tower dates from the mid fifteenth century and the rest (restored in 1873) from 1506. It is home to some of the local traditional spindle backed chairs, while stained-glass windows commemorate recent celebrated practitioners of this art. Buried in the chancel is The Rev. John King, who was vicar here from 1622 to 1672 and survived all the religious vicissitudes of that turbulent era.
Black swan theory
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
For Taleb's book on the subject, see The Black Swan (Taleb book).
A black swan, a member of the species Cygnus atratus, which remained undocumented until the eighteenth century
The Black Swan Theory or "Theory of Black Swan Events" was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: 1) the disproportionate role of high-impact, hard to predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology, 2) the non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to their very nature of small probabilities) and 3) the psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs. Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem", the "Black Swan Theory" (capitalized) refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.
Contents [show]
[edit]Background
Black Swan Events were characterized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book (revised and completed in 2010), The Black Swan. Taleb regards almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic accomplishments as "black swans" — undirected and unpredicted. He gives the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, and the September 11 attacks as examples of Black Swan Events.
The term black swan was a Latin expression — its oldest known reference comes from the poet Juvenal's characterization of something being "rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno" (6.165).[1] In English, this Latin phrase means "a rare bird in the lands, and very like a black swan." When the phrase was coined, the black swan was presumed not to exist. The importance of the simile lies in its analogy to the fragility of any system of thought. A set of conclusions is potentially undone once any of its fundamental postulates is disproven. In this case, the observation of a single black swan would be the undoing of the phrase's underlying logic, as well as any reasoning that followed from that underlying logic.
Juvenal's phrase was a common expression in 16th century London as a statement of impossibility. The London expression derives from the Old World presumption that all swans must be white because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers.[2] In that context, a black swan was impossible or at least nonexistent. After a Dutch expedition led by explorer Willem de Vlamingh on the Swan River in 1697, discovered black swans in Western Australia[3], the term metamorphosed to connote that a perceived impossibility might later be disproven. Taleb notes that in the 19th century John Stuart Mill used the black swan logical fallacy as a new term to identify falsification.
Specifically, Taleb asserts[4] in the New York Times:
What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.
First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explains almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives.
[edit]Coping with black swan events
The main idea in Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict Black Swan Events, but to build robustness against negative ones that occur and being able to exploit positive ones. Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are very vulnerable to hazardous Black Swan Events and are exposed to losses beyond that predicted by their defective models.
Taleb states that a Black Swan Event depends on the observer—using a simple example, what may be a Black Swan surprise for a turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for its butcher—hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey" by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white".
[edit]Identifying a black swan event
Based on the author's criteria:
The event is a surprise (to the observer).
The event has a major impact.
After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it had been expected.
[edit]Epistemological approach
Taleb's black swan is different from the earlier philosophical versions of the problem, specifically in epistemology, as it concerns a phenomenon with specific empirical and statistical properties which he calls, "the fourth quadrant".[5] Taleb's problem is about epistemic limitations in some parts of the areas covered in decision making. These limitations are twofold: philosophical (mathematical) and empirical (human known epistemic biases). The philosophical problem is about the decrease in knowledge when it comes to rare events as these are not visible in past samples and therefore require a strong a priori, or what one can call an extrapolating theory; accordingly events depend more and more on theories when their probability is small. In the fourth quadrant, knowledge is both uncertain and consequences are large, requiring more robustness.
Before Taleb,[6] those who dealt with the notion of the improbable, such as Hume, Mill, and Popper focused on the problem of induction in logic, specifically, that of drawing general conclusions from specific observations. Taleb's Black Swan Event has a central and unique attribute, high impact. His claim is that almost all consequential events in history come from the unexpected—yet humans later convince themselves that these events are explainable in hindsight (bias).
One problem, labeled the ludic fallacy by Taleb, is the belief that the unstructured randomness found in life resembles the structured randomness found in games. This stems from the assumption that the unexpected may be predicted by extrapolating from variations in statistics based on past observations, especially when these statistics are presumed to represent samples from a bell-shaped curve. These concerns often are highly relevant in financial markets, where major players use value at risk models, which imply normal distributions, although market returns typically have fat tail distributions.
More generally, decision theory, based on a fixed universe or a model of possible outcomes, ignores and minimizes the effect of events that are "outside model". For instance, a simple model of daily stock market returns may include extreme moves such as Black Monday (1987), but might not model the breakdown of markets following the September 11 attacks of 2001. A fixed model considers the "known unknowns", but ignores the "unknown unknowns".
Taleb notes that other distributions are not usable with precision, but often are more descriptive, such as the fractal, power law, or scalable distributions and that awareness of these might help to temper expectations.[7]
Beyond this, he emphasizes that many events simply are without precedent, undercutting the basis of this type of reasoning altogether.
Taleb also argues for the use of counterfactual reasoning when considering risk.[8][9]
[edit]Taleb's ten principles for a black swan robust world
Taleb enumerates ten principles for building systems that are robust to Black Swan Events:[10]
What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become Too Big to Fail.
No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains.
People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus.
Do not let someone making an "incentive" bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks.
Counter-balance complexity with simplicity.
Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning.
Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to "restore confidence".
Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains.
Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible "expert" advice for their retirement.
Make an omelette with the broken eggs.
In addition to these ten principles, Taleb also recommends employing both physical and functional redundancy in the design of systems. These two steps can be found in the principles of resilience architecting. (Reference: Jackson, S. Architecting Resilient Systems: John Wiley & Sons. Hoboken, NJ: 2010.)
[edit]See also