exactly one year after the fire at the organic valley headquarters, we re-opened the rebuilt section of the building. hurray! and a few days after that cosmos organicos garden collective was in the garden preparing beds and planting. it's great to get out and get your hands dirty and even more so when you're doing it in the "shadow" of a rebuilt headquarters ( big shout-out to everyone who made it happen )!

Bayesian phylogenetic trees derived from 154 global samples of DENV-3 E gene partial sequences (1023 nucleotides) inferred with MrBayes program.

The posterior probabilities are expressed in percent and indicated at important nodes. DENV-1 (ThD1_0127_80_D4, AY732411), DENV-2 (JAM1983_D2, AY484605) and DENV-4 (1503_YUCATAN_MX_84_D4, DQ341212) were used as outgroup. Horizontal branch lengths are drawn to scale. Aligned sequences were analyzed in the MrModeltest 2.3 program to identify the best fit-model of nucleotide substitution for Bayesian phylogenetic reconstruction [23]. The nucleotide substitution model used was under a General Time Reversible model of nucleotide substitution with gamma-distributed rate variation (G = 1.2411) and a proportion of invariable sites (I = 0.3656) (GTR+G+I), using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) [24]. Five runs of 4 chains each (one cold and tree heated, temperature = 0.20) were run for 1.5×106 generations, with a burn-in of 6000 generations. Characteristic amino acid substitutions at important nodes are indicated. GenBank accession numbers: BH 16 2003 (EF625832), BH 19 2003 (EF625833), BH 24 2003 (EF625834), BR 00 68784 (AY038605), D3BR RP1 03 (DQ118877), BR74886 02 (AY679147), China 80 2 (AF317645), Cuba21 02 (AY702031), D3BR PV7 03 (EU570161), BR DEN3 RO1 02 (EF629373), BR DEN3 RO2-02 (EF629373), ET ET209 00 (EF440434), ET_D3_Hu_TL129NIID_2005 (AB214882), ET_D3_Hu_TL018NIID_2005 (AB214879), ET_D3_OPD007NIID 2005 (AB219131), ET SV0153 05 (DQ453981), ET SV0160 05 (DQ453980), ET SV0174 05 (DQ453973), ET SV0177 05 (DQ453972), ET SV0193 05 (DQ453970), ET SV0194 05 (DQ453969), ET_D3_TL029NIID_2005 (AB214880), Fiji 92 (L11422), PF89 27643 89 (AY744677), PF89 320219 89 (AY744678), PF90 3050 90 (AY744679), PF90 3056 90 (AY744680), PF90 6056 90 (AY744681), PF92 2956 92 (AY744682), PF92 2986 92 (AY744683), PF94 136116 94 (AY744685), India 84 (L11424), Indo0312a TW 03 (DQ518677), Indo0508a_TW (DQ518678), IN 9108a_Tw 91 (DQ518674), IN 9909a_Tw 99 (DQ518675), IN BA51 04 (AY858037), IN DEN3 98 (AY858039), IN FW01 04 (AY858040), IN FW06 04 (AY858041), IN KJ30i 04 (AY858042), Indo_KJ71 04 (AY858044), ET_D3_Indonésia_NIID01 2005 (AB219137), ET_D3_Indonésia_NIID02 2005 (AB219138), ET_D3_Indonésia_NIID04 2005 (AB219139), IN PH86 04 (AY858045), IN PI64 04 (AY858046), IN Sleman 78 (AY648961), IN TB16 04 (AY858047), IN TB55i 04 (AY858048), Indo_73 (L11425), Indo_78 (L11426), Indo_85 (L11428), JP 73NIID 1973 (AB111085), Malasya 74 (L11429), Malasya 81 (L11427), D3_H_IMTSSA_MART_2000_1567 (AY099338), D3_H_IMTSSA_MART_2000_1706 (AY099339), D3_H_IMTSSA_MART_1999_1243 (AY099337), MG 20 2004 (EF625835), MEX6097_95 (AY146763), 6584_YUCATAN_MX 96 (DQ341203), Nicaragua 94 (AY702033), Panama 94 (DQ341209), Philip 56 H87 (L11423), Philp_05_0508aTw (DQ518673), Philp_96_9609aTw (DQ518668), Philp_98_9808aTw (DQ518671), Philp_98_9809aTw (DQ518669), PtoRico 63 (L11433), D3PY AS10 03 (DQ118883), SAMOA_86 (L11435), SOMALIA 93 S142 (DQ341208), SriLan 99 9912a (DQ518679), D3_H_IMTTSSA_Sri_2000_1266 (AY099336), SriLanka 81 (L11431), SriLanka 85 (L11436), SriLanka 89 (L11437), SriLanka 91 (L11438), Venez_C02 003_Maracay_2001 (DQ367720), Venez C23 009 Maracay_2001 (DQ367721), Venz_LARD5990_00 (AY146764), In_98901437 DSS DV_3_98 (AB189126), In_98901517 DHF DV_3_98 (AB189127), In_98901403 DSS DV_3_98 (AB189125), NAMRU_2 98901620 (AY265857), Tw_05_812KH0508a_Tw (DQ518672), ET_SV0171_05 (DQ453974), In_den3_88 (AY858038), Thail_D88_303_88 (AY145714), In_98902890 DF DV_3_98 (AB189128), 95TW466_95(DQ675519), Tw_94_813KH9408a_Tw (DQ518667), In_InJ_I6_82 (DQ401694), PF92_4190_92 (AY744684), Taiwan_739079A (AY776329), BR_D3BR_ST14_04 (DQ118882), PY_D3PY_AS12_02 (DQ118884), Cuba580_01 (AY702030), 6883_YUCATAN_MX_97 (DQ341204), 4841_YUCATAN_MX_95 (DQ341202), Ja_00_28_1HuNIID_00 (AB111081), PtoRico_77_1339 (AY146761), Tahiti_65 (L11439), ThD3_1687_98 (AY676348), ThD3_0115_99 (AY676387), ThD3_1959_01 (AY676402), ThD3_0328_02 (AY676383), ThD3_0989_00 (AY676414), ThD3_0077_98 (AY676389), ThD3_0654_01 (AY676394), ThD3_0111_02 (AY676420), ThD3_0188_91 (AY676367), ThD3_0182_96 (AY676369), Thail_03_0308a_Tw (DQ518660), TW_05_807KH0509a_Tw (DQ518659), VietN_BID V1018_2006 (EU482462), Thal_D93_044_93 (AY145720), Ja_00_40_1HuNIID_00 (AB111082), Ja_96_17_1HuNIID_96(AB111084), BDH_Apu_01 (AY656672), Thail_D92_423_92 (AY145718), Thail_D94_283_94 (AY145723), Thail_D95_0014 _95(AY145724), Thail_D97_0144_97 (AY145729), Thail_D93_674 _93 (AY145721), Thail_D94_122 _94(AY145722), Thail_D97_0291 _97(AY145730), Thail_D95_0400 _95 (AY145725), Ja_00_27_1HuNIID_00 (AB111080), BDH02_1_02 (AY496871), Myan_05_0508a_Tw, DQ518666), Mal_LN7933_94 (AY338494), Ma_LN2632_93 (AF147459), Sing_8120_95 (AY766104), ThD3_0029_90 (AY676421), ThD3_0183_85 (AY676368), Thail_87_1384_87 (AF533079), Thail_D91_538_91 (AY145717), Thail_D92_431_92 (AY145719), ThD3_0065_86 (AY676354), ThD3_0040_80 (AY676359), 98TW182_98 (DQ675520), Thail_PaH881_88 (AF349753), ThD3_0046_83 (AY676358), Thail_D89_273_89 (AY145715), ThD3_0137_84 (AY676371), ThD3_0059_81 (AY676356), ThD3_285M_77 (AY676384), ThD3_0059_82 (AY676355), ThD3_0033_74 (AY676360), 1503_YUCATAN_MX_84_D4 (DQ341212), JAM1983_D2 (AY484605), ThD1_0127_80 _D1 (AY732411).

A return visit to St Mary.

I was last here about 6 years ago, parking in the little square one warm September afternoon.

Much colder in March, but plenty of parking spaces, and St Mary was surprisingly open.

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The church stands in the village square removed from the main road. The flint rubble construction and severe restoration of the exterior does not look welcoming, but the interior is most appealing with plenty of light flooding through the clerestory windows. The rectangular piers of both north and south arcades with their pointed arches and boldly carved stops are of late twelfth-century date. Between them hang some eighteenth-century text boards. The character of the church is given in the main by late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century work. The high altar has four charmingly painted panels by John Ripley Wilmer in Pre-Raphaelite style, executed in 1907. At the opposite end of the church are the organ loft, font cover and baptistry, all designed by F.C. Eden, who restored the church in the early 1900s. He also designed the west window of the south aisle as part of a larger scheme which was not completed. In the south chancel wall are two windows of great curiosity. One contains a fifteenth-century figure of St Thomas Becket while the other shows figures of David and Saul. This dates from the nineteenth century and was painted by Frank Wodehouse who was the then vicar's brother. The face of David was based on that of Mme Carlotta Patti, the opera singer, while Gladstone and Disraeli can be identified hovering in the background! It is a shame that it has deteriorated badly.

www.kentchurches.info/church.asp?p=Elham

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ELEHAM,

OR, as it is as frequently written, Elham, lies the next parish south-eastward from Stelling. It was written in the time of the Saxons both Uleham and Æiham, in Domesday, Albam. Philipott says, it was antiently written Helham, denoting the situation of it to be a valley among the hills, whilst others suppose, but with little probability, that it took its name from the quantity of eels which the Nailbourn throws out when it begins to run. There are Seven boroughsin it, of Bladbean, Boyke, Canterwood, Lyminge, Eleham, Town, Sibton, and Hurst.

Eleham is said to be the largest parish in the eastern parts of this county, extending itself in length from north to south, through the Nailbourn valley, about three miles and an half; and in breadth five miles and a half, that is, from part of Stelling-minnis, within the bounds of it, across the valley to Eleham down and Winteridge, and the southern part of Swinfield-minnis, almost up to Hairn-forstal, in Uphill Folkestone. The village, or town of Eleham, as it is usually called, is situated in the above-mentioned valley, rather on a rise, on the side of the stream. It is both healthy and pleasant, the houses in it being mostly modern and wellbuilt, of brick and fashed. As an instance of the healthiness of this parish, there have been within these few years several inhabitants of it buried here, of the ages of 95, 97, and 99, and one of 105; the age of 40 years being esteemed that of a young person, in this parish. The church, with the vicarage on the side of the church-yard, is situated on the eastern side of it, and the court lodge at a small distance from it. This is now no more than a small mean cottage, thatched, of, I believe, only two rooms on a floor, and unsit for habitation. It appears to be the remains of a much larger edifice, and is built of quarry-stone, with small arched gothic windows and doors, the frames of which are of ashlar stone, and seemingly very antient indeed. It is still accounted a market-town, the market having been obtained to it by prince Edward, afterwards king Edward I. in his father's life-time, anno 35 Henry III. to be held on a Monday weekly, which, though disused for a regular constancy, is held in the market-house here once in five or six years, to keep up the claim to the right of it; besides which there are three markets regularly held, for the buying and selling of cattle, in every year, on Palm, Easter, and Whit Mondays, and one fair on Oct. 20th, by the alteration of the stile, being formerly held on the day of St. Dionis, Oct. 9, for toys and pedlary. The Nailbourn, as has been already mentioned before, in the description of Liminage, runs along this valley northward, entering this parish southward, by the hamlet of Ottinge, and running thence by the town of Eleham, and at half a mile's distance, by the hamlet of North Eleham, where there are several deep ponds, in which are from time to time quantities of eels, and so on to Brompton's Pot and Wingmere, at the northern extremity of this parish. The soil in the valley is mostly an unfertile red earth, mixed with many flints; but the hills on each side of it, which are very frequent and steep, extend to a wild romantic country, with frequent woods and uninclosed downs, where the soil consists mostly of chalk, excepting towards Stelling and Swinfield minnis's, where it partakes of a like quality to that of the valley, tance,by the hamlet of North Eleham, where there only still more poor and barren. At the north-west corner of the parish, on the hill, is Eleham park, being a large wood, belonging to the lord of Eleham manor.

Dr. Plot says, he was informed, that there was the custom of borough English prevailing over some copyhold lands in this parish, the general usage of which is, that the youngest son should inherit all the lands and tenements which his father had within the borough, &c. but I cannot find any here subject to it. On the contrary, the custom here is, to give the whole estate to the eldest son, who pays to the younger ones their proportions of it, as valued by the homage of the manor, in money.

At the time of taking the survey of Domesday, anno 1080, this place was part of the possessions of the bishop of Baieux, under the general title of whose lands it is thus entered in it:

In Honinberg hundred, the bishop of Baieux holds in demesne Alham. It was taxed at six sulins. The arable land is twenty-four carucates. In demesne there are five carucates and forty-one villeins, with eight borderers having eighteen carucates. There is a church, and eight servants, and two mills of six shillings, and twenty eight acres of meadow. Wood for the pannage of one hundred hogs. In the time of king Edward the Confessor, and afterwards, it was worth thirty pounds, now forty, and yet it yields fifty pounds. Ederic held this manor of king Edward.

Four years after the bishop was disgraced, and all his possessions were consiscated to the crown, whence this manor seems to have been granted to William de Albineto, or Albini, surnamed Pincerna, who had followed the Conqueror from Normandy in his expedition hither. He was succeeded by his son, of the same name, who was made Earl of Arundel anno 15 king Stephen, and Alida his daughter carried it in marriage to John, earl of Ewe, in Normandy, whose eldest son Henry, earl of Ewe, was slain at the siege of Ptolemais in 1217, leaving Alice his sole daughter and heir, who entitled her husband Ralph D'Issondon to the possession of this manor, as well as to the title of earl of Ewe. She died in the reign of king Henry III. possessed of this manor, with the advowson of the church, and sealed with Barry, a label of six points, as appears by a deed in the Surrenden library; after which it appears to have come into the possession of prince Edward, the king's eldest son, who in the 35th year of it obtained the grant of a market on a Monday, and a fair, at this manor, (fn. 1) and afterwards, in the 41st year of that reign, alienated it to archbishop Boniface, who, left he should still further inflame that enmity which this nation had conceived against him, among other foreigners and aliens, by thus increasing his possessions in it, passed this manor away to Roger de Leyborne, who died possessed of it in the 56th year of that reign, at which time it appears that there was a park here; (fn. 2) and in his name it continued till Juliana de Leyborne, daughter of Thomas, became the sole heir of their possessions, from the greatness of which she was usually called the Infanta of Kent. She was thrice married, yet she had no issue by either of her husbands, all of whom she survived, and died in the 41st year of king Edward III. upon which this manor, among the rest of her estates, escheated to the crown, there being no one who could make claim to them, by direct or even by collateral alliance. (fn. 3) Afterwards it continued in the crown till king Richard II. vested it in feoffees in trust, towards the endowment of St. Stephen's chapel, in his palace of Westminster, which he had in his 22d year, completed and made collegiate, and had the year before granted to the dean and canons this manor, among others, in mortmain. (fn. 4) All which was confirmed by king Henry IV. and VI. and by king Edward IV. in their first years; the latter of whom, in his 9th year, granted to them a fair in this parish yearly, on the Monday after Palm-Sunday, and on the Wednesday following, with all liberties, &c. In which situation it continued till the 1st year of king Edward VI. when this college was, with all its possessions, surrendered into the king's hands, where this manor did not continue long; for the king in his 5th year, granted it to Edward, lord Clinton and Saye, and he reconveyed it to the crown the same year. After which the king demised it, for the term of eighty years, to Sir Edward Wotton, one of his privy council, whose son Thomas Wotton, esq. sold his interest in it to Alexander Hamon, esq. of Acrise, who died in 1613, leaving two daughters his coheirs, the youngest of whom Catherine, married to Sir Robert Lewknor, entitled him to it; he was at his death succeeded by his son Hamon Lewknor, esq. but the reversion in see having been purchased of the crown some few years before the expiration of the above-mentioned term, which ended the last year of king James I.'s reign, to Sir Charles Herbert, master of the revels. He at the latter end of king Charles I.'s reign, alienated it to Mr. John Aelst, merchant, of London; after which, I find by the court rolls, that it was vested in Thomas Alderne, John Fisher, and Roger Jackson, esqrs. who in the year 1681 conveyed it to Sir John Williams, whose daughter and sole heir Penelope carried it in marriage to Thomas Symonds, esq. of Herefordshire, by the heirs of whose only surviving son Thomas Symonds Powell, esq. of Pengethley, in that county, it has been lately sold to Sir Henry Oxenden, bart. who is now entitled to it.

A court leet and court baron is held for this manor, which is very extensive. There is much copyhold land held of it. The demesnes of it are tithe-free. There is a yearly rent charge, payable for ever out of it, of 87l. 13s. 1d. to the ironmongers company, in London.

Shottlesfield is a manor, situated at the southeast boundary of this parish, the house standing partly in Liminge, at a small distance southward from the street or hamlet of the same name. It was, as early as the reign of king Edward II. the inheritance of a family called le Grubbe, some of whom had afterwards possessions about Yalding and Eythorne. Thomas le Grubbe was possessed of it in the 3d year of that reign, and wrote himself of Shottlesfeld, and from him it continued down by paternal descent to John Grubbe, who in the 2d year of king Richard III. conveyed it by sale to Thomas Brockman, of Liminge, (fn. 5) whose grandson Henry Brockman, in the 1st year of queen Mary, alienated it to George Fogge, esq. of Braborne, and he, in the beginning of queen Elizabeth's reign, sold it to Bing, who, before the end of that reign, passed it away to Mr. John Masters, of Sandwich, from whom it descended to Sir Edward Masters, of Canterbury, who at his decease, soon after the death of Charles I. gave it to his second son, then LL. D. from whose heirs it was alienated to Hetherington, whose last surviving son the Rev. William Hetherington, of North Cray place, died possessed of it unmarried in 1778, and by will devised it, among his other estates, to Thomas Coventry, esq. of London, who lately died possessed of it s. p. and the trustees of his will are now entitled to it.

The manor of Bowick, now called Boyke, is situated likewise in the eastern part of this parish, in the borough of its own name, which was in very antient times the residence of the Lads, who in several of their old evidences were written De Lad, by which name there is an antient farm, once reputed a manor, still known, as it has been for many ages before, in the adjoining parish of Acrise, which till the reign of queen Elizabeth, was in the tenure of this family. It is certain that they were resident here at Bowick in the beginning of king Henry VI.'s reign, and in the next of Edward IV. as appears by the registers of their wills in the office at Canterbury, they constantly stiled themselves of Eleham. Thomas Lade, of Bowick, died possessed of it in 1515, as did his descendant Vincent Lade in 1563, anno 6 Elizabeth. Soon after which it passed by purchase into the name of Nethersole, from whence it quickly afterwards was alienated to Aucher, and thence again to Wroth, who at the latter end of king Charles I.'s reign sold it to Elgar; whence, after some intermission, it was sold to Thomas Scott, esq. of Liminge, whose daughter and coheir Elizabeth, married to William Turner, esq. of the Friars, in Canterbury, at length, in her right, became possessed of it; his only surviving daughter and heir Bridget married David Papillon, esq. of Acrise, and entitled him to this manor, and his grandson Thomas Papillon, esq. of Acrise, is the present owner of it.

Mount and Bladbean are two manors, situated on the hills, on the opposite sides of this parish, the former near the eastern, and the latter near the western boundaries of it; the latter being antiently called Bladbean, alias Jacobs-court, a name now quite forgotten. Both these manors appear to have been in the reign of the Conqueror, part of the possessions of Anschitillus de Ros, who is mentioned in Domesday as holding much land in the western part of this county, their principal manor there being that of Horton, near Farningham. One of this family made a grant of it to the Cosentons, of Cosenton, in Aylesford, to hold of their barony of Ros, as of their manor of Horton before-mentioned, by knight's service. In the 7th year of Edward III. Sir Stephen de Cosenton obtained a charter of freewarren for his lands here. He was the son of Sir William de Cosenton, sheriff anno 35 Edward I. and was sometimes written of Cosenton, and sometimes of Mount, in Eleham. At length his descendant dying in the beginning of king Henry VIII.'s reign, without male issue, his three daughters, married to Duke, Wood, and Alexander Hamon, esq. became his coheirs, and shared a large inheritance between them, and upon their division of it, the manor of Bladbean, alias Jacobs-court, was allotted to Wood, and Mount to Alexander Hamon.

The manor of Bladbean, alias Jacobs-court, was afterwards alienated by the heirs of Wood to Thomas Stoughton, esq. of St. Martin's, near Canterbury, who by will in 1591 (fn. 6) gave this manor, with its rents and services, to Elizabeth his daughter and coheir, married to Thomas Wilde, esq. of St. Martin's, whose grandson Colonel Dudley Wilde, at his death in 1653, s. p. devised it to his widow, from whom it went by sale to Hills, and Mr. James Hills, in 1683, passed it away to Mr. Daniel Woollet, whose children divided this estate among them; a few years after which John Brice became, by purchase of it at different times, possessed of the whole of it, which he in 1729 conveyed by sale to Mr. Valentine Sayer, of Sandwich, who died possessed of it in 1766, and the heirs of his eldest son Mr. George Sayer, of Sandwich, are now entitled to it.

The manor of Mount, now called Mount court, which was allotted as above-mentioned, to Alexander Hamon, continued down to his grandson, of the same name, who died possessed of it in 1613, leaving two daughters his coheirs, the youngest of whom, Catherine, entitled her husband Sir Robert Lewknor, to it, in whose descendants it continued till Robert Lewknor, esq. his grandson, in 1666, alienated it, with other lands in this parish, to Thomas Papillon, esq. of Lubenham, in Leicestershire, whose descendant Thomas Papillon, esq. of Acrise, is the present proprietor of it.

Ladwood is another manor in this parish, lying at the eastern boundary of it, likewise on the hills next to Acrise. It was written in old evidences Ladswood, whence it may with probability be conjectured, that before its being converted into a farm of arable land, and the erecting of a habitation here, it was a wood belonging to the family of Lad, resident at Bowick; but since the latter end of king Edward III.'s reign, it continued uninterrupted in the family of Rolse till the reign of king Charles II. soon after which it was alienated to Williams, in which name it remained till Penelope, daughter of Sir John Williams, carried it in marriage to Thomas Symonds, esq. the heirs of whose only surviving son Thomas Symonds Powell, esq. sold it to David Papillon, esq. whose son Thomas Papillon, esq. now possesses it.

The manor of Canterwood, as appears by an old manuscript, seemingly of the time of Henry VIII. was formerly the estate of Thomas de Garwinton, of Welle, lying in the eastern part of the parish, and who lived in the reigns of Edward II. and III. whose greatgrandson William Garwinton, dying s. p. Joane his kinswoman, married to Richard Haut, was, in the 9th year of king Henry IV. found to be his heir, not only in this manor, but much other land in these parts, and their son Richard Haut having an only daughter and heir Margery, she carried this manor in marriage to William Isaak. After which, as appears from the court-rolls, which do not reach very high, that the family of Hales became possessed of it, in which it staid till the end of queen Elizabeth's reign, when it went by sale to Manwood, from which name it was alienated to Sir Robert Lewknor, whose grandson Robert Lewknor, esq. in 1666 sold it, with other lands in this parish already mentioned, to Thomas Papillon, esq. of Lu benham, in Leicestershire, whose descendant Thomas Papillon, esq. of Acrise, is the present owner of it.

Oxroad, now usually called Ostrude, is a manor, situated a little distance eastward from North Eleham. It had antiently owners of the same name; Andrew de Oxroad held it of the countess of Ewe, in the reign of king Edward I. by knight's service, as appears by the book of them in the king's remembrancer's office. In the 20th year of king Edward III. John, son of Simon atte Welle, held it of the earl of Ewe by the like service. After which the Hencles became possessed of it, from the reign of king Henry IV. to that of king Henry VIII. when Isabel, daughter of Tho. Hencle, marrying John Beane, entitled him to it, and in his descendants it continued till king Charles I.'s reign, when it was alienated to Mr. Daniel Shatterden, gent. of this parish, descended from those of Shatterden, in Great Chart, which place they had possessed for many generations. At length, after this manor had continued for some time in his descendants, it was sold to Adams, in which name it remained till the heirs of Randall Adams passed it away by sale to Papillon, in whose family it still continues, being now the property of Thomas Papillon, esq. of Acrise.

Hall, alias Wingmere, is a manor, situated in the valley at the northern boundary of this parish, next to Barham, in which some part of the demesne lands of it lie. It is held of the manor of Eleham, and had most probably once owners of the name of Wigmere, as it was originally spelt, of which name there was a family in East Kent, and in several antient evidences there is mention made of William de Wigmere and others of this name. However this be, the family of Brent appear to have been for several generations possessed of this manor, and continued so till Thomas Brent, of Wilsborough, dying in 1612,s. p. it passed into the family of Dering, of Surrenden; for in king James I.'s reign Edward Dering, gent. of Egerton, eldest son of John, the fourth son of John Dering, esq, of Surren den, who had married Thomas Brent's sister, was become possessed of it; and his only son and heir Thomas Dering, gent. in 1649, alienated it to William Codd, gent. (fn. 7) of Watringbury, who was succeeded in it by his son James Codd, esq. of Watringbury, who died s. p. in 1708, being then sheriff of this county, and being possessed at his death of this manor in fee, in gavelkind; upon which it came to the representatives of his two aunts, Jane, the wife of Boys Ore, and Anne, of Robert Wood, and they, in 1715, by fine levied, entitled Thomas Manley, and Elizabeth, his wife, to the possession of this manor for their lives, and afterwards to them in fee, in separate moieties. He died s. p. in 1716, and by will gave his moiety to John Pollard; on whose death s. p. it came, by the limitation in the above will, to Joshua Monger, whose only daughter and heir Rachael carried it in marriage to her husband Arthur Pryor, and they in 1750 joined in the sale of it to Mr. Richard Halford, gent. of Canterbury. The other moiety of this manor seems to have been devised by Elizabeth Manley above-mentioned, at her death, to her nephew Thomas Kirkby, whose sons Thomas, John, and Manley Kirkby, joined, in the above year, in the conveyance of it to Mr. Richard Halford above-mentioned, who then became possessed of the whole of it. He was third son of Richard Halford, clerk, rector of the adjoining parish of Liminge, descended from the Halfords, of Warwickshire, as appears by his will in the Prerogative-office, Canterbury, by which he devised to his several sons successively in tail, the estate in Warwickshire, which he was entitled to by the will of his kinsman William Halford, gent, of that county. They bear for their arms, Argent, a greybound passant, sable, on a chief of the second, three fleurs de lis, or. He died possessed of it in 1766, leaving by Mary his wife, daughter of Mr. Christopher Creed, of Canterbury, one son Richard Halford, gent. now of Canterbury; and two daughters, Mary married to Mr. John Peirce, surgeon, of Canterbury; and Sarah. In 1794, Mr. Peirce purchased the shares of Mr. Richard and Mrs. Sarah Halford, and he is now the present owner of this manor. He bears for his arms, Azure field, wavy bend, or, two unicorns heads, proper.

The manor OF Clavertigh is situated on the hills at the north-west boundary of this parish, next to Liminge, which antiently belonged to the abbey of Bradsole, or St. Radigund, near Dover, and it continued among the possessions of it till the 27th year of king Henry VIII. when by the act then passed, it was suppressed, as not having the clear yearly revenue of two hundred pounds, and was surrendered into the king's hands, who in his 29th year, granted the scite of this priory, with all its lands and possessions, among which this manor was included, with certain exceptions, however, mentioned in it, to archbishop Cranmer, who in the 38th year of that reign, conveyed this manor of Clavertigh, with lands called Monkenlands, late belonging to the same priory in this parish, back again to the king, who that same year granted all those premises to Sir James Hales, one of the justices of the common pleas, to hold in capite, (fn. 8) and he, in the beginning of king Edward VI.'s reign, passed them away to Peter Heyman, esq. one of the gentlemen of that prince's bedchamber who seems to have had a new grant of them from the crown, in the 2d year of that reign. He was succeeded by his eldest son, Ralph Heyman, esq. of Sellindge, whose descendant Sir Peter Heyman, bart. alienated the manor of Clavetigh to Sir Edward Honywood, of Evington, created a baronet in 1660, in whose descendants this manor has continued down to Sir John Honywood, bart. of Evington, who is the present possessor of it.

Charities.

Jonas Warley, D. D. gave by will in 1722, 50l. to be put out on good security, the produce to be given yearly in bread on every Sunday in the year, after divine service, to six poor widows, to each of them a two-penny loaf. The money is now vested in the vicar and churchwardens, and the produce of it being no more than 2l. 5s. per annum, only a three-halfpenny loaf is given to each widow.

Land in this parish, of the annual produce of 1l. was given by a person unknown, to be disposed of to the indigent. It is vested in the minister, churchwardens, and overseers.

Four small cottages were given to the parish, by a person unknown, and are now inhabited by poor persons. They are vested in the churchwardens and overseers.

Sir John Williams, by will in 1725, founded A CHARITY SCHOOL in this parish for six poor boys, legal inhabitants, and born in this parish, to be taught reading, writing, and accounts, to be cloathed once in two years; and one such boy to be bound out apprentice, as often as money sufficient could be raised for that use. The minister, churchwardens, and overseers to be trustees, who have power to nominate others to assist them in the management of it. The master has a house to live in, and the lands given to it are let by the trustees.

The poor constantly relieved are about seventy-five, casually fifty-five.

Eleham is within the ecclesiastical jurisdiction of the diocese of Canterbury, and deanry of its own name.

The church, which is dedicated to St. Mary, is large and handsome, consisting of three isles, the middle one having an upper range of windows, and one chancel, having a tower steeple, with a spire shast on it, at the west end, in which are eight bells, a clock, and chimes. Within the altar-rails is a memorial for John Somner, gent. son of the learned William Somner, of Canterbury, obt. 1695; arms, Ermine, a chevron voided. In the chancel a brass plate for Michael Pyx, of Folkestone, mayor and once high bailisf to Yarmouth, obt. 1601. Another for Nicholas Moore, gent. of Bettenham, in Cranbrooke; he died at Wingmer in 1577. In the middle isle a memorial for Captain William Symons, obt. 1674; arms, Parted per pale, and fess, three trefoils slipt. A brass plate for John Hill, dean and vicar of Eleham, obt. 1730. In this church was a lamp burning, called the light of Wyngmer, given before the year 1468, probably by one of the owners of that manor.

The church of Eleham was given by archbishop Boniface, lord of the manor of Eleham, and patron of this church appendant to it, at the instance of Walter de Merton, then canon of St. Paul's, and afterwards bishop of Rochester, to the college founded by the latter in 1263, at Maldon, in Surry. (fn. 9) After which the archbishop, in 1268, appropriated this church to the college, whenever it should become vacant by the death or cession of the rector of it, saving a reasonable vicarage of thirty marcs, to be endowed by him in it, to which the warden of the college should present to him and his successors, a fit vicar, as often as it should be vacant, to be nominated to the warden by the archbishop; otherwise the archbishop and his successors should freely from thence dispose of the vicarage for that turn. (fn. 10)

¶The year before this, Walter de Merton had begun a house in Oxford, whither some of the scholars were from time to time to resort for the advancement of their studies, to which the whole society of Maldon was, within a few years afterwards, removed, and both societies united at Oxford, under the name of the warden and fellows of Merton college. This portion of thirty marcs, which was a stated salary, and not tithes, &c. to that amount, was continued by a subsequent composition or decree of archbishop Warham, in 1532; but in 1559, the college, of their own accord, agreed to let the vicarial tithes, &c. to Thomas Carden, then vicar, at an easy rent, upon his discharging the college from the before-mentioned portion of thirty marcs: and this lease, with the like condition, has been renewed to every subsequent vicar ever since; and as an addition to their income, the vicars have for some time had another lease, of some wood grounds here, from the college. (fn. 11)

The appropriation or parsonage of this church is now held by lease from the warden and fellows, by the Rev. John Kenward Shaw Brooke, of Town-Malling. The archbishop nominates a clerk to the vicarage of it, whom the warden and fellows above-mentioned present to him for institution.

This vicarage is valued in the king's books at twenty pounds, (being the original endowment of thirty marcs), and the yearly tenths at two pounds, the clear yearly certified value of it being 59l. 15s. 2d. In 1640 it was valued at one hundred pounds per annum. Communicants six hundred. It is now of about the yearly value of one hundred and fifty pounds.

All the lands in this parish pay tithes to the rector or vicar, excepting Parkgate farm, Farthingsole farm, and Eleham-park wood, all belonging to the lord of Eleham manor, which claim a modus in lieu of tithes, of twenty shillings yearly paid to the vicar. The manor farm of Clavertigh, belonging to Sir John Honywood, bart and a parcel of lands called Mount Bottom, belonging to the Rev. Mr. Thomas Tournay, of Dover, claim a like modus in lieu of tithes.

www.british-history.ac.uk/survey-kent/vol8/pp95-110

Author Leonard Mlodinow and Henry Fortunato, director of Public Affairs.

Trust me, its worse than it looks. As my buddy Ryan said, this is one of those rare things where the probability of death is not zero. The granite is slippery, and so are the cables. In peak times the cables are jammed with people, meaning you spend more time on the steep face. Because it takes effort even to stay still, frustrations can run high. Some people even go up outside the cables because others go too slow. But if you slip and fall (as someone did just 2 months ago), you will probably die. And while I can honestly say that I wasn't scared, I doubt I'd do it again under less than perfect conditions and without being better prepared. A safety rope, or maybe even rock climbing shoes. Certainly something better than cheap gloves & a pair of Asics.

And we *were* better prepared than a lot of others, which is scary. This is not a place to mess around.

all right! what's the probability of this six dices toss? ...1 / (6^6)

Don't get in! You have 50% probability to have a nice and possibly your last ride with an elevator down to the basement!

The building was originally designed as sanatorium in 1912, the first wing of the building was completed in 1916. From January 1, 1917 until the end of November 1918, victims of tuberculosis reach 157, the government decided on 09.12.1918 to create a new wing.

On 24/3/1961 The Greek Tourism Organization decided to purchase the building and use it as a hotel with 400 rooms of B and C category.

On 5/5/1965 Greek Tourism Organization finally bought the building for 6,500,000 drachmas.

On 09/15/1969 They made the decision to use the hotel (called Xenia) as a school of tourism during the winters.

ELEVATOR INFORMATION

The building has 4 elevators, two for passengers and two dumbwaiters. The passenger elevators served the 5 levels including the basement. The location of the machinery rooms is on the basement and they use the ratio of picture “ratio”. The first elevator is missing, there is a lot of debris in the pit, maybe it’s there, and the second elevator is stuck on the fifth level hanging only by the emergency brakes and the rope of the governor.

The whole scene looks like the ghost ship and the silent hill

The building is located at mt Parnitha, Athens, Greece,

Coordinations: 38o08’55,20” 23o43’06,87” at 1023m

Basically the question has your derive the binomial distribution for a binary (bernoulli) random variable, which is formally revealed and defined in chapter 2 :)

I just finished reading Game of Thrones, which was absolutely brilliant. So I decided to take a break from A Song of Fire and Ice and read a young adult novel.. I always choose the ones about cancer.

2006_1121_160300_640

The probability of rainfall in Laytonville, Ca for each week of the year based on 16 years of climate data, from 'high' (black) to 'unlikely' (white). Length of segment = average temp for that week. We had a day of rain this week, verifying the September probability.

I sometimes make sculptures and drawings based on information or data. These have to do with very local conditions.

final version of editorial style illustration based on article about the phenomenom of people being convinced that they predicted real world events in their dreams www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/feb/22/future-paranormali...

Follow us on twitter: twitter.com/lastlemon01

Books I received this week:

The Statistical Probability of Love at First Sight by Jennifer E. Smith

Dead Inside: Notes from the Zombie Apocalypse by Chronicle Books

Yeah, this one is doomed in all probability. Le sigh. Grove Ave, Petersburg VA

St Andrew, Halstead, Essex

The eastern part of the South Aisle is so called because it was appropriated by the Bourchiers as their family burial place. The first Bourchier to be connected with Halstead was John, who obtained in 1311 the estate of Stanstead and married Helen de Colchester. He was buried in 1328 and in all probability the granite effigies resting on the easternmost tomb are those of him and his wife with four bedesmen being positioned at their feet. A wooden shield painted with the Bourchier arms has been fixed above the knight, but does not necessarily belong. (There is evidence suggesting that this is a replacement dating from as early as the first half of the sixteenth century. No other such separate shield has been known to have survived.)

The remains of the tomb on which the effigies lie (three portions of two sides of a limestone tomb-chest with 'weepers' and shields) belonged to the tomb of Robert, first Lord Bourchier, son of John and Helen, and his wife Margaret, daughter of Sir Thomas Prayers. Robert was the first Lay Chancellor of England (1340); he fought with the Black Prince at Crecy and was ambassador to the French to treat for peace. He died in 1349 of the Plague. According to the research carried out by J Enoch Powell MP the effigies lying under the adjacent canopied tomb are those of Robert and Margaret.

The canopied tomb with battlemented pinnacles and damaged tomb-chest is characterised by the style prevalent in the early part of the fifteenth century. They display the Bourchier Arms supported by an angel and a dragon. One angel panel in the front appears to have a scallop (cockleshell for Coggeshall?). If so, the tomb may have been made for John, second Lord Bourchier, KG (son of Robert) and his second wife Elizabeth, daughter of Sir John de Coggeshall. He died after a long and distinguished public career in 1400. Some interesting medieval scribbling on the western canopy shaft is gradually becoming obliterated. This records the names of important people connected with the parish. These include Colet (possibly John Colet, since the great tithe belonged to the Dean and Chapter of St Paul's), and Warner, whose family held the Manor of Dynes, alias Boises, from the reign of Henry VI to that of Mary.

Another scribble close by reads 'John Worth, let be your nice legs' although the last two letters are open to question. The Worthies held the Manor of Blamsters and John Worthie was steward to Lord Bourchier at Stanstead Hall during the reign of Henry VI. Weever, in the seventeenth century, mentioned seeing in the church the much damaged tomb of George de Vere, which has entirely disappeared. George was the nephew of John, the redoubtable thirteenth Earl of Oxford who commanded the van of the Duke of Richmond's army at Bosworth Field. George was buried at Halstead in 1498.

567:543

today i learned that when you're at the beach the probability of catching three on-the-go toddlers in a single photograph is vanishingly small. just a mere moment before odin was flinging sand behind him onto evelyn and ian. but they were too preoccupied with taking turns throwing sand and screaming to take notice.

oh my, how the new kids on the block have grown ( and here ).

November 18, 2010 - "Roles for Third Parties in Improving Implementation of EPA's and OSHA's Regulations on the Management of Low-Probability, High-Consequence Process Safety Risks" - Penn Program on Regulation, in conjunction with the Wharton Risk Management Center, hosted a conference regarding the usage of third party auditors in the enforcement of regulatory safety measures in high risk industries. Industries which experts call "Low-Probability, High-Consequence," such as nuclear reactors, oil refineries, or chemical processing plants, are specifically hoped to be improved by third party inspections safety. The conference brought together numerous participants from a variety of fields, including from government, industry, insurance, academia, and non-profit sectors. The conference consisted of a day-long discussion spread over three separate panels. Over the course of the conference, participants stressed the importance of implementing a third party system to effectively and thoroughly audit industry despite lack of adequate funds and resources. Other potential scenarios offered for enacting effective third party auditing included making sure that these third party auditors were completely independent from the industries they would be inspecting so as to eliminate bias or a conflict of interest. Another issue to consider is the question of whose authority would the third party auditors be under and what kind of enforcement power would they have to enforce industry change. One of the panel discussions brought up the potential linkage of third party audits with insurance companies so as to provide an incentive for industry to decrease safety risks in order to pay lower insurance premiums. Workshop participants included Isadore "Irv" Rosenthal, a Senior Research Fellow at the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center; Howard Kunreuther, James G. Dinan Professor of Business and Public Policy at Wharton and Co-Director of the Wharton Risk Center; Laurie Miller, Senior Director of Environment and Process Safety at the American Chemistry Council; Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan, Managing Director of the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center; Scott Berger, Executive Director of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers; Don Nguyen, a Principal Process Safety Management Engineer at Siemens Energy, Inc.; Mike Marshall, Process Safety Management Coordinator at the Directorate of Enforcement Programs at the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) within the United States Department of Labor; Cary Coglianese, Edward B. Shils Professor of Law and Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania Law School and Director of the Penn Program on Regulation; Bob Whitmore, Former Chief of OSHA Division of Recordkeeping at the United States Department of Labor; Jim Belke, Chemical Engineer at the Office of Emergency Prevention and Member of the Office of Chemical Preparedness within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); William Doerr, FM Global Research Area Director; Manuel Gomez, Director of Recommendations at the U.S. Chemical Safety Board; Tim Cillessen, Manager of Sales and Marketing at Siemens Energy, Inc.; Mike Wright, Director of Health, Safety, and Environment at United Steelworkers; Jennifer Nash, Affiliated Researcher of Nanotechnology and Society Research Group at Northeastern University and the Associate Director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Executive Director of Regulatory Policy Program at Harvard Kennedy School of Government; Michael Perron, Senior Vice President of Willis Re New York.

Ahh, what a combination: Probability and Statistics class and a bag full of hot and spicy

corn chips named "churritos".

Churritos is a very popular snack here in Mexico.

This is what I called : Numbers and chips crunching.

No Photoshop here.

Zacatecas, Mexico

Food Urbanism Initiative:

Projections from a computationally-based urban modeler. Scenarios for a densification strategy of the Sébeillon sectors of Lausanne. These scenarios include productive agricultural land as an integral component of the urban design strategy.

Bars at the bottom show instantiation sequence and size (in ha).

Animation

St Andrew, Halstead, Essex

The eastern part of the South Aisle is so called because it was appropriated by the Bourchiers as their family burial place. The first Bourchier to be connected with Halstead was John, who obtained in 1311 the estate of Stanstead and married Helen de Colchester. He was buried in 1328 and in all probability the granite effigies resting on the easternmost tomb are those of him and his wife with four bedesmen being positioned at their feet. A wooden shield painted with the Bourchier arms has been fixed above the knight, but does not necessarily belong. (There is evidence suggesting that this is a replacement dating from as early as the first half of the sixteenth century. No other such separate shield has been known to have survived.)

The remains of the tomb on which the effigies lie (three portions of two sides of a limestone tomb-chest with 'weepers' and shields) belonged to the tomb of Robert, first Lord Bourchier, son of John and Helen, and his wife Margaret, daughter of Sir Thomas Prayers. Robert was the first Lay Chancellor of England (1340); he fought with the Black Prince at Crecy and was ambassador to the French to treat for peace. He died in 1349 of the Plague. According to the research carried out by J Enoch Powell MP the effigies lying under the adjacent canopied tomb are those of Robert and Margaret.

The canopied tomb with battlemented pinnacles and damaged tomb-chest is characterised by the style prevalent in the early part of the fifteenth century. They display the Bourchier Arms supported by an angel and a dragon. One angel panel in the front appears to have a scallop (cockleshell for Coggeshall?). If so, the tomb may have been made for John, second Lord Bourchier, KG (son of Robert) and his second wife Elizabeth, daughter of Sir John de Coggeshall. He died after a long and distinguished public career in 1400. Some interesting medieval scribbling on the western canopy shaft is gradually becoming obliterated. This records the names of important people connected with the parish. These include Colet (possibly John Colet, since the great tithe belonged to the Dean and Chapter of St Paul's), and Warner, whose family held the Manor of Dynes, alias Boises, from the reign of Henry VI to that of Mary.

Another scribble close by reads 'John Worth, let be your nice legs' although the last two letters are open to question. The Worthies held the Manor of Blamsters and John Worthie was steward to Lord Bourchier at Stanstead Hall during the reign of Henry VI. Weever, in the seventeenth century, mentioned seeing in the church the much damaged tomb of George de Vere, which has entirely disappeared. George was the nephew of John, the redoubtable thirteenth Earl of Oxford who commanded the van of the Duke of Richmond's army at Bosworth Field. George was buried at Halstead in 1498.

Diagram describing the effects of various site values on the potential for new use as Agricultural land, Low-Rise, Mid-Rise, or High-Rise construction.

- Play math games

- Use for probability activities

- Use operational cubes to create number problems

- Create your own number cubes using blank ones

Brian (Granddog) has joined us for a few days, so increasing the possibilities/probabilities of finding something interesting in the garden ... rat, lizard, cicada ... Brian has a good nose :)

Daily Dog Challenge: Possibilities

St Andrew, Halstead, Essex

The eastern part of the South Aisle is so called because it was appropriated by the Bourchiers as their family burial place. The first Bourchier to be connected with Halstead was John, who obtained in 1311 the estate of Stanstead and married Helen de Colchester. He was buried in 1328 and in all probability the granite effigies resting on the easternmost tomb are those of him and his wife with four bedesmen being positioned at their feet. A wooden shield painted with the Bourchier arms has been fixed above the knight, but does not necessarily belong. (There is evidence suggesting that this is a replacement dating from as early as the first half of the sixteenth century. No other such separate shield has been known to have survived.)

The remains of the tomb on which the effigies lie (three portions of two sides of a limestone tomb-chest with 'weepers' and shields) belonged to the tomb of Robert, first Lord Bourchier, son of John and Helen, and his wife Margaret, daughter of Sir Thomas Prayers. Robert was the first Lay Chancellor of England (1340); he fought with the Black Prince at Crecy and was ambassador to the French to treat for peace. He died in 1349 of the Plague. According to the research carried out by J Enoch Powell MP the effigies lying under the adjacent canopied tomb are those of Robert and Margaret.

The canopied tomb with battlemented pinnacles and damaged tomb-chest is characterised by the style prevalent in the early part of the fifteenth century. They display the Bourchier Arms supported by an angel and a dragon. One angel panel in the front appears to have a scallop (cockleshell for Coggeshall?). If so, the tomb may have been made for John, second Lord Bourchier, KG (son of Robert) and his second wife Elizabeth, daughter of Sir John de Coggeshall. He died after a long and distinguished public career in 1400. Some interesting medieval scribbling on the western canopy shaft is gradually becoming obliterated. This records the names of important people connected with the parish. These include Colet (possibly John Colet, since the great tithe belonged to the Dean and Chapter of St Paul's), and Warner, whose family held the Manor of Dynes, alias Boises, from the reign of Henry VI to that of Mary.

Another scribble close by reads 'John Worth, let be your nice legs' although the last two letters are open to question. The Worthies held the Manor of Blamsters and John Worthie was steward to Lord Bourchier at Stanstead Hall during the reign of Henry VI. Weever, in the seventeenth century, mentioned seeing in the church the much damaged tomb of George de Vere, which has entirely disappeared. George was the nephew of John, the redoubtable thirteenth Earl of Oxford who commanded the van of the Duke of Richmond's army at Bosworth Field. George was buried at Halstead in 1498.

thanks Pasta

this isn't a hat, its a probability cowl - you roll a dice to decide whether to cable or not

Night before S1 exam

At the Student Research Poster Session, students have the opportunity to talk with faculty about their summer research projects.

Origin unknown but probability, an escapee. River Severn Shrewsbury.

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

FORMS is a generative visual music bot.

arselectronicagardenbarcelona.org/en/

www.playmodes.com/

Driven by a set of rules based on randomness and probability, it can generate and endless number of graphic scores. This scores are automatically sonified thanks to spectral sound synthesis algorithms, bluring the boundaries between scores and spectrums.

The resulting graphics can be framed within the tradition of graphic notation that gained strength among twentieth-century composers (John Cage, Iannis Xenakis, Karlheinz Stockhausen, Morton Feldman, Mestres Quadreny...), and which allowed music to be released from the rigidity of classic staves.

FORMS has been "dreaming" without interruption for more than 5000 hours and streaming this visual music dreams online: www.twitch.tv/playmodes.

After a well deserved break, and for the Ars Electronica exhibition, FORMS is materialized as a "Screen Ensemble". A triptych of large format screens interpret one instrument each: Rhythm, Harmony or Texture. Thanks to its networked brain, this 3 instruments are coordinated between them, each one playing a part of a real-time generative composition which will never be repeated again.

Credit: Santi Vilanova

////

FORMS es un "bot" de música visual generativa.

Conducido por un conjunto de reglas basadas en aleatoriedad y probabilidades, genera un sinfín de partituras gráficas. Estas partituras se sonifican automáticamente gracias a algoritmos de síntesis sonora, difuminando los límites entre partitura y espectrograma.

Las imágenes resultantes pueden enmarcarse dentro de la tradición de la notación gráfica que cobró fuerza entre los compositores del siglo XX (John Cage, Iannis Xenakis, Karlheinz Stockhausen, Morton Feldman, Mestres Quadreny ...), y que permitió a la música liberarse de la rigidez de los pentagramas clásicos.

FORMS ha estado "soñando" sin interrupción durante más de 2000 horas y transmitiendo estos sueños musicales visuales on-line en www.twitch.tv/playmodes.

Después de un merecido descanso, y para la exposición Ars Electronica, FORMS se materializa como un "Screen Ensemble". Un tríptico de pantallas de gran formato interpretan un instrumento cada una: Ritmo, Armonía o Textura. Gracias a su cerebro en red, estos 3 instrumentos se coordinan entre ellos, cada uno interpretando su parte de una composición generativa en tiempo real que nunca más se repetirá.

Credit: Santi Vilanova

The Illusion of Certainty: Risk, Probability, and Chance. Gerd Gigerenzer.

The probability that we may fail in the struggle ought not to deter us from the support of a cause we believe to be just.

Abraham Lincoln

16th president of US (1809 - 1865)

The above image was taken at what is called "The Wheatfield" at Gettysburg.

On the sultry afternoon of July 2, 1863, a wheatfield would become the center of a swirling and confused whirlpool of fighting and death. This wheatfield, one of many such wheatfields that was golden with ripening grain surrounding the south central Pennsylvania town of Gettysburg, would forever be known simply as The Wheatfield. Over the course of one long bloody afternoon, this Wheatfield would become, like places such as Little Round Top, Devil's Den, and the Peach Orchard, firmly entrenched in the American memory as a place American killed American during the bloody battle of Gettysburg. By the end of July 2, the wheat would be trampled and the ground soaked with blood, forever hallowing the ground, surrounding woods, and the simple name of this place where Americans fought and bled and died.

Jarod Maggio, Environmental Engineering

Advisor: Dr. Kurtis G. Paterson

Volcanoclastic debris flows or lahars triggered by intense rainfall due to bulking are influenced by surface characteristics that reduce the downward infiltration of groundwater after saturation. Variations in surface cover control storm water runoff, thus affecting the timing and volume of water entering a river channel prone to lahars. Rainfall induced debris flows constitute a serious geologic hazard to communities in many parts of the world. The abundant loose erodible material on volcanoes increases the likelihood and severity of large debris flow events; this combined with dense populations make volcanoes an important area for lahar research and mitigation measures. This study was carried out on the slopes of the Republic of the Philippines most active volcano, Mt. Mayon, in hopes of increasing the understanding of debris flow initiation. Two tipping bucket rain gauges equipped with data loggers were deployed to determine an intensity-duration rainfall threshold during quiescent periods on Mayon. The steady-state infiltration capacities of Mayons substrates were determined using a double-ring infiltrometer ponding method. Additional infiltrometer experiments were carried out with an overlying simulated ash layer of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 100 mm in order to quantify the effects of tephra cover on ground infiltration, adding supporting data that decreased infiltration and increased likelihood of debris flow initiation occur after an eruptive event. Finally, sieve analyses of the volcanic substrates were conducted to better understand the variations of infiltration and runoff due to grain size distribution. An intensity-duration rainfall threshold for quiescent periods on Mayon was estimated to be (I=46.2D- 0.43). Average infiltration measurements ranged from 5.43-230.83 mm/hr depending on the type of substrate, vegetation cover, and grain size distribution. Simulated ash layers were found to increase initial infiltration (first 10 minutes) but decreased long-term infiltration (minutes - hours) between 2-30%. The average infiltration for each watershed was compared to the estimated volume of the lahars that were produced during Typhoon Reming in 2006, indicating a correlation between infiltration characteristics and debris flow severity.

Changbao Wu, Meetings Co-ordinator; Julie Atherton, Québec rep.; Jason Loeppky, Electronic Services Manager; Gail Ivanoff, Probability Section.

November 18, 2010 - "Roles for Third Parties in Improving Implementation of EPA's and OSHA's Regulations on the Management of Low-Probability, High-Consequence Process Safety Risks" - Penn Program on Regulation, in conjunction with the Wharton Risk Management Center, hosted a conference regarding the usage of third party auditors in the enforcement of regulatory safety measures in high risk industries. Industries which experts call "Low-Probability, High-Consequence," such as nuclear reactors, oil refineries, or chemical processing plants, are specifically hoped to be improved by third party inspections safety. The conference brought together numerous participants from a variety of fields, including from government, industry, insurance, academia, and non-profit sectors. The conference consisted of a day-long discussion spread over three separate panels. Over the course of the conference, participants stressed the importance of implementing a third party system to effectively and thoroughly audit industry despite lack of adequate funds and resources. Other potential scenarios offered for enacting effective third party auditing included making sure that these third party auditors were completely independent from the industries they would be inspecting so as to eliminate bias or a conflict of interest. Another issue to consider is the question of whose authority would the third party auditors be under and what kind of enforcement power would they have to enforce industry change. One of the panel discussions brought up the potential linkage of third party audits with insurance companies so as to provide an incentive for industry to decrease safety risks in order to pay lower insurance premiums. Workshop participants included Isadore "Irv" Rosenthal, a Senior Research Fellow at the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center; Howard Kunreuther, James G. Dinan Professor of Business and Public Policy at Wharton and Co-Director of the Wharton Risk Center; Laurie Miller, Senior Director of Environment and Process Safety at the American Chemistry Council; Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan, Managing Director of the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center; Scott Berger, Executive Director of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers; Don Nguyen, a Principal Process Safety Management Engineer at Siemens Energy, Inc.; Mike Marshall, Process Safety Management Coordinator at the Directorate of Enforcement Programs at the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) within the United States Department of Labor; Cary Coglianese, Edward B. Shils Professor of Law and Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania Law School and Director of the Penn Program on Regulation; Bob Whitmore, Former Chief of OSHA Division of Recordkeeping at the United States Department of Labor; Jim Belke, Chemical Engineer at the Office of Emergency Prevention and Member of the Office of Chemical Preparedness within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); William Doerr, FM Global Research Area Director; Manuel Gomez, Director of Recommendations at the U.S. Chemical Safety Board; Tim Cillessen, Manager of Sales and Marketing at Siemens Energy, Inc.; Mike Wright, Director of Health, Safety, and Environment at United Steelworkers; Jennifer Nash, Affiliated Researcher of Nanotechnology and Society Research Group at Northeastern University and the Associate Director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Executive Director of Regulatory Policy Program at Harvard Kennedy School of Government; Michael Perron, Senior Vice President of Willis Re New York.

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