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The forecast was predicting a 94% chance of a sweat pant-wearing,
no-showering-style Easter, likely lacking the usual Easter-style
fixin's (as that would have required a trip in the car to the grocery
store). In fact, the Easter bunny didn't even get her shit together
until just before noon, for the poor 3-year-old in the house ("Oh,
look, he must have come while you were intent on that Sponge-Bob
episode, Noel"....Well, actually she never really asked *why* the
basket of overflowing chocolate appeared...she's not one to look a
chocolate gift-horse in the mouth.)
But despite the best statistical method prediction analysis you could
buy, the odds were proved wrong. The neighbor called in the
mid-morning (OK, way before any adult without a 3-year-old would ever
conceive of waking up on a Sunday, but, mid-morning for me) and kindly
asked us over for Easter dinner at 1 pm.
So we did it. We went over for dinner with the neighbors that reside
on either side of our house (the food was a collaborative effort,
well, except for my help). There were kids jumping/playing video
games, men planted on couches, women in the kitchen, and dogs roaming
for scraps and licking the unsuspecting child: it was the usual
holiday setup. We watched movies, ate food, had conversation, ate more
food, bundled up leftovers to eat later, and zoned out. We had the
Easter favs: a ham, some smelly lamb, and potatoes, followed up with
pie and ice cream and sprinkled all over with chocolate Easter eggs.
The thing that I really hadn't planned on however, was the dinner
conversation. It started our harmless enough, with the discussion of
an upcoming holiday to FL and the newest renovations on the respective
houses. But suddenly it veered and before I new what had happened,
the conversation had drifted into an area that had never graced my
ears at a dinner table, much less for a religious holiday. Yay,
Jesus...wanna bang? Swinging became the hot topic, and I don't mean
at a playground. Everything from the other neighbors on the street
that were already engaged, to the future possibilities-involving said
dinner mates. I could tell from some reactions that I was glad *not*
to have a visual in my mind of the other neighbors who were already at
it. And for those too young to fully comprehend the discussion at
hand, an unabridged dictionary was procured to clearly define
"swinging." Yow, it was gross. I'm not sure how my stomach didn't
just immediately reject it's contents, in hindsight. But, in some ways
it was a very educational experience. Curtains for my windows stepped
up in priority from "cute decoration accessory" to "goddamn
imperative." Bye now....gotta hit the closest Bed, Bath, and
Beyond.....
There's an almost total lack of documentation on Paul McCobb's 1951 Predictor Group collection. What information I have been able to assemble over the past years research comes almost entirely from 3rd party sources such as newspaper and magazine articles. Once you add it all together a pretty clear picture emerges.
This Predictor Group Buffet for instance is never directly referred to in any of the Directional promotional materials that I have amassed. It does appear in the background of a few Directional ads detailing the Predictor Group but nothing is ever written about it in any of the literature I have collected, with only one exception: a photo and direct attribution blurb in Mario Del Fabbro's 1954 "Furniture for Modern Interiors", page 128.
Little know fact: Mario Del Fabbro was an employee of Paul McCobb Design Associates for many years and maintained a close personal friendship with both Paul and his wife Molly long after he was no longer employed by them. Predictor
NOAA predicts tsunami debris will show up on our shores intermittently during the next several years. It is unknown where and what types of debris might arrive.
Today I attended the first day of the Predict Conference 2015 at the RDS. I will not be able to attend tomorrow but I hope to return on Thursday.
The on-going conference Conference (organised by industry-leader Creme Global) is an interactive meeting. It will, over three days, feature leading international thinkers in the areas of Data, Predictive Models, Technology and Decision making. At the meeting, we will be discussing the latest progress in Predictive Modelling and its future - from Data to Software and Hardware technology, plus Predictive Modelling methods and the best examples of Data-driven Decision-making.
Talks from leading entrepreneurs, data scientists, technologists, investors, and decision-makers (from business and government) will include case-studies and hands-on workshops. This conference has a focus on Data and Predictive Modelling technology like no other.
Participants interacting during the Session "Future-Proofing Ecosystems through Predictive Analytics with Australian National University" at the Annual Meeting 2018 of the World Economic Forum in Davos, January 23, 2018
Copyright by World Economic Forum / Sandra Blaser
Kenworth Predictive Cruise Control, which was recently updated in conjunction with the new 2017 emission engines, combines GPS with cruise control to deliver optimum fuel economy. Predictive Cruise Control optimizes cruising speed based on topographical GPS data inputs. As the truck enters certain types of terrain, such as rolling hills, the system modulates cruising speed to optimize performance. For example, as the truck ascends and crests a hill, Predictive Cruise Control will allow the vehicle speed to drop slightly below the set cruise speed. This boosts fuel economy since the truck is now using momentum instead of fuel to maintain set cruise speed.
For the second night in a row, the heavens opened up. This time, I am beginning to recognize a pattern. I love auroras that are well-defined with brilliant curtains, and I have seen enough now to recognize that they typically come strong in these times out of times of soft, diffuse bands of lights across the sky. I saw it some last night, and tonight, I was just about to turn in when I saw this and decided to look for another location to shoot from. So glad I did. I found a pigeon barn on the outskirts of town on the side of the road. I set up my camera, and started getting shots of the auroras with the barn in the foreground. Soon, the heavens opened up, just as I predicted. WELL worth the extra time out tonight.
Side of the Cunningham Building in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, complete with ghost signs. One of the ghost signs says "Petries".
From hiddencityphila.org/2012/04/party-wall-like-a-rockstar:
Irish immigrant Patrick J. Cunningham started his famous piano company in 1891. Like every other piano company of the period, the Cunningham Piano Company set up a showroom on Chestnut East, back when it was known as “Piano Row.” The original Piano Row was confined to the 1100 block of Chestnut, but like Jeweler’s Row, expanded to surrounding streets. At its peak Piano Row had 13 piano companies spanning Chestnut Street from 6th to 23rd, with most of them in the 1100-1300 blocks.
Two decades after opening, business was going so well for Cunningham at its 1105 Chestnut location that more space was sorely needed. In 1913, P.J. Cunningham bought 1312 and 1314 Chestnut Street, twin mansions-turned-offices known as the Irwin Estate, with the intention of building a $1 million dollar 12-story warehouse. They sat on the property for nine years. Then on November 14th, 1922 the company announced that the new building at 1312 Chestnut would be dedicated to offices and sales, bumping the project up to a $1.5 million dollar 15-story tower. Cunningham commissioned the the architecture firm of Andrew J. Sauer and they knocked it out of the park. Not only did they give it a beautiful slender facade from top to bottom, but actually gave it a brick facade for the exposed party walls as well. These unusual facades, consisting of western Pennsylvania brick, pushed the project’s price tag up to $2 million. Ground was broken on February 1st, 1923 and the company moved in on June 3rd, 1924. The fireproof building was billed as one of the tallest buildings East of Broad Street dedicated to one company. The fancy side facades were said to withstand 120mph winds.
At the time, buildings usually had their name or occupying company painted in gigantic letters along their exposed party walls. The Cunningham Building, despite having side facades that included the building’s name, was no exception. Only a few years after the building was completed, the building’s name was painted no less than three times on each side, along with an advertising slogan and images of pianos the company produced. As if that wasn’t enough, “CUNNINGHAM” was also emblazoned in brass on the sidewalk in front (long gone).
Sales were outstanding throughout the 1920s, especially when Cunningham secured itself as the industry standard for player pianos. But the Great Depression hit the business hard, forcing the company to give up on its illustrious office and sales tower and move to other quarters. In 1936, the building was rented out to Petrie’s, a New York based woman’s wear chain. $135,000 of alterations were done to accommodate the new tenant. Among the changes were new side facade signs that covered the Cunningham ones.
Petrie’s only stayed for a short time until the building was purchased in 1938 by the Anthony H. Geuting Company, a shoe manufacturer and seller. They’d had a store on the 1200 block of Chestnut since 1919 and were eager to expand, moving into the first 10 floors of the building and leasing the top five to other companies. Geuting’s was billed as the world’s largest shoe store when it opened in January of 1939. Yet again, another side facade sign was painted over the old ones. On February 1st, 1952, A. H. Geuting sold the shoe store but retained ownership of the old Cunningham Building–leasing it to others for the next 20 years.
In 1973, the property was purchased by the UK-based Corris Properties, who held it all the way up to 1998, when PMC Investments bought the place for $1 million. PMC moved their worldwide chemicals and plastics concern from their previous location in Ardmore and altered the facade to declare their presence. The building still says “PMC Group Building” on the front to this day. In 2001, only a few years later, Tony Goldman, Messiah of 13th Street, bought the building for $2.45 million. PMC moved to Mt. Laurel, New Jersey.
Goldman wanted to turn the place into condos. In early 2005, he spent 900 G’s on 1316 Chestnut, the single story retail box next door, presumably to make room for the addition. He commissioned two architecture firms, Brett Webber Architects and Erdy-McHenry Architecture, to create separate plans for the building, both of which called for building onto the historic party wall, Cunningham’s best feature. E-M’s plan, featured in last year’s Gray Area preservation initiative, was born from what they called a “host-parasite” typology. Their addition, which would have preserved but also visually obliterated much of the party wall, would have reengaged the original core of the now obsolete office building, also strengthening it to withstand seismic activity.
But on June 15th, 2007, at the very peak of the boom, in an event that perhaps no one predicted, Goldman sold the tower and retail box to the Church of Scientology for $7.8 million. The Cunningham Building would now set another world record…it would be the tallest building in the Church of Scientology. This event made headlines, pushing the tower into a limelight it had not had since it opened. Some people balked at the idea of the structure having this kind of use, but at least SOMEONE was seeing the value of A. J. Sauer’s masterwork. However, five years since the sale, despite plans, no alterations have been completed. Proposed alterations of the building, though extensive, still keep the original exterior relatively intact.
The new 2017 emission PACCAR MX-13 Engine can be ordered on Kenworth T680 and T880 models with the newly updated Kenworth Predictive Cruise Control functionality. The update, which was made in conjunction with the launch of the new 2017 emission engines, provides truck fleets and operators up to a 1 percent improvement in fuel economy over the performance of the current version of the Kenworth Predictive Cruise Control
Ceridwen Fraser, Research Fellow in Evolutionary and Molecular Ecology, Australian National University, Australia speaking during the Session "Future-Proofing Ecosystems through Predictive Analytics with Australian National University" at the Annual Meeting 2018 of the World Economic Forum in Davos, January 23, 2018
Copyright by World Economic Forum / Sandra Blaser
This little iris is a sure predictor of rain. First the bud swells and then when it opens you can be sure that 24-36 hours later it will rain. Never fails.
I predict my feet are going to explode. Just when you think they couldn't swell up even more, they find a new place. First my ankles disapeared, then I developed new bulges where my ankles were and above and below. Then the tops of my feet puffed up and then the tops of the toes themselves. What is left to puff up I ask you? It is like walking on pillows. Tender pillows. I really do think all I need is to draw hair all over them and I could be a Hobbit. They'd save on special effects with my feet. Hopefully one day they will go back to how they were.
adage.com/campaigntrail/post?article_id=131961
Since the poll's inception in 1984, it has accurately predicted the winner of the presidential election every four years and never been further than 4 percentage points from the final popular vote tally nationwide.
Conventional polls this year are fraught with doubts -- from the "Bradley Effect" to the elusive cellphone-only households. But one poll based in the all-important swing state of Ohio has never failed since its inception in 1984, and it has Barack Obama with an almost insurmountable lead over John McCain.
The Busken Cookie Poll, in which the chain of Cincinnati-area retail bakeries sells cookies bearing cartoon images of each candidate, as of Thursday morning had Mr. Obama ahead 6,477 to 3,090 -- a 68% to 32% margin.
Unscientific? Perhaps. But Brian Busken, VP-marketing of the family business, said that since the poll's inception in 1984, it has accurately predicted the winner of the presidential election every four years and never been further than 4 percentage points from the final popular vote tally nationwide.
(Note: While the website shows a smiling Obama cookie and a frowning McCain cookie, the cookies sold in stores have both smiling.)
"We've never seen a spread like this before in the numbers," Mr. Busken said. "I don't know if there's going to be a crumbslide or not. ... We may still predict the winner, but probably by way too many cookies."
Already there are allegations of irregularities. Commenters on a story at the website of the Cincinnati Business Courier allege some bookstores have Obama cookies up front, McCain cookies in the back, and that Remke stores in Northern Kentucky had run out of the McCain cookies.
Mr. Busken said wholesale sales such as those referenced in the comments don't count. Nor does a recent bulk purchase of 400 McCain cookies by Rob Portman, former Republican congressman and White House budget director. If Acorn buys cookies online for the Dallas Cowboys and their cheerleaders, those don't count either. Only cookies sold in the 11 Ohio stores tracked by the poll count.
PI: Theresa Windus, Ames Laboratory
1,024 water molecules in a lattice configuration.
Credit: George Schoendorff, Iowa State University.
At Cape Canaveral Air Force Station's Space Launch Complex 41, an Atlas V rocket with NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-R, lifts off at 6:42 p.m. EST on November 19, 2016.
GOES-R is the first satellite in a series of next-generation weather satellites from NOAA.
It will launch to a geostationary orbit over the western hemisphere to provide images of storms and help meteorologists predict severe weather conditionals and develop long-range forecasts.
Photo Credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett
For the latest on the GOES-R launch, visit www.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES-R-Launch
Day 67.
If you are successful, it’ll never come from the direction you predicted. Same is true if you fail.
Nene, Chiari, Ruruka, and Ruby looks at someone, who first thought it was a cat, then a person. But they were right the first time...
Tashiding Monastery is a Buddhist monastery of the Nyingma sect of Tibetan Buddhism in Western Sikkim, northeastern India. It is located on top of the hill rising between the Rathong chu and the Rangeet River, 40 kilometres from Gyalshing and 19 kilometres to the south east of Yuksam meaning Yuk-Lamas, Sam- Three in Lepcha Language which signifies the meeting place of three holy lamas from Tibet in 1641 A.D. Tashiding is the nearest town to the Tashiding Monastery (Gompa), which is the most sacred and holiest monasteries in Sikkim.
Tashiding means “The Devoted Central Glory” and the monastery by this name was founded in 1641 by Ngadak Sempa Chempo Phunshok Rigzing who belonged to the Nyingma sect of Tibetan Buddhism. Ngadak was one of the three wise men who held the consecration ceremony crowning the first King of Sikkim at Yuksom. It was extended and renovated in 1717 during the reign of the third Chogyal Chakdor Namgyal. 'Bhumchu Ceremony' or festival is a popular religious festival that is held on the 14th and 15th day of the first month of Tibetan Calendar.
The Tashiding Monastery is part of Buddhist religious pilgrimage circuit starting with the first monastery at Yuksam in Sikkim known as the Dubdi Monastery, Norbugang Chorten, Pemayangtse Monastery, the Rabdentse ruins, the Sanga Choeling Monastery, and the Khecheopalri Lake.
LEGEND
There are several legends linked to the most revered monastery and the Bhuchu festival that is held here.
According to one local legend Guru Padmasambhava shot an arrow into the air to select the place. Where the arrow he shot landed, he sat in meditation and that site eventually became the site of the Tashiding Monastery.
Another legend relates to the three monks who consecrated the first Chogyal of Sikkim at Yuksam. It is said that the three monks saw an unusual divine phenomenon of bright light shining on top of the Kanchendzonga mountain, which reflected to a site near the place where the present Tashiding Monastery has been built. Concurrently, a scented smell of incense followed by all pervading divine music was also noted. The first Chogyal who visited the site subsequent to hearing this unusual event, erected a small chorten at the site and named it as Thongwa-Rang-Grol. Legend further glorifies the site stating that a mere sight of it “confers self-emancipation”.
Another absorbing legend is related to the celebration of the Bhumchu festival at Tashiding Monastery. The legend is traced to the tantric art. Guru Padmasambhava, while teaching the tantric system of “Mahakarunika Avalokiteshvara Sadhana and initiation on emancipation from the cycle of mundane existence” to the King Trisong Duetsen, prince Murub Tsenpo, Yeshe Tsogyal and Verotsana in Tibet, sanctified the same holy vase with holy water, which is now kept in Tashiding Monastery and revered during the Bhumchu festival. This vase is made of five types prized jewels, divine soil and holy water said to have been gathered by Padmasambhava from religious centres in India, Odiuana and Zahor. The vase was made by the wrathful deity Damchen Gar-bgag and sanctified by Guru Padmasambhava himself by performing the “Sadhana of Yidam Chuchig Zhal (meaning tutelary deity of eleven heads)”. On this occasion, heavenly deities appeared in the sky and thereafter merged into the holy water contained in the vase. The vase then overflowed and the water dispersed in “all directions in the form of rays.” This ritual was immediately followed by an earthquake, which was considered an auspicious sign. The divine moment also witnessed the presence of the four guardian divinities namely, “the Gyalchen Dezhi/Cutur – Maharajika of Dharma and the gods of the thirty-three heavens (Samchu Tsasumgyi Lhanam) who showered flowers from the sky.” The event was witnessed by devotees and Padmasmabhava distributed the holy water from the vase to all assembled people, which spiritually benefited one and all. The vase was then hidden as a treasure under the care of the divine deities. However, the vase was rediscovered and passed through the hands of several holy men and finally placed at Tashiding by Terton Ngdag Sampachenpo. During the reign of the first ruler of Sikkim, Phuntshog Namgyal, the Terton recited the holy hymn “Om Mani Padme Hum” five billions when several unique events were also witnessed in Sikkim. After the religious ceremony the vase with the water has been kept on display in a small chamber in the Monastery under the custody of the Chogyal himself, which is opened once a year during the Bhumchu festival.
GEOGRAPHY
This monastery located at an altitude of 1465 m is built on top of a heart shaped hill or helmet shaped hill above the confluence of the Rathong Chu and Rangeet rivers, with the Mt. Kanchendzonga providing the scenic back drop. It is about 16 km from Yuksam, 40 km from Gezing via Legship.
The monastery is considered as the spiritual centre of Sikkim since it is encircled by many important monasteries in Sikkim in all directions such as: the Dubdi Monastery 23 km away on its northern direction, the Khecheopalri Lake (wish fulfilling lake) on the northwest, the Pemayangtse monastery on the west, the Shiva temple at Legship on the south, the Mongbrue gompa and Ravangla Bön monastery on the southeast, the Ravangla Gelug monastery on the east, the Karma Kagyud Ralang Monastery on the northeast.[citation needed] Gulia summarising the importance of this monastery has said:
For tashiding one can say: seeing is believing. The monastery is historically illustrious, geographically well located, aesthetically beautiful, spiritually divine – a place where nature and spirituality dwell together, urging the human race to be ecologically upright.
Geographically the Monastery and the Tashiding town are surrounded by four divine caves located in four cardinal directions. The four caves where Buddhist saints meditated are: On the East is the Sharchog Bephug, on the South is the Khandozangphu, in the West is Dechenpug cave and on the North is the Lhari Nyingphug. The main deity deified in the monastery is Tashiding and hence the monastery is also known as 'Dakkar Tashiding'.
HISTORY
In the 17th century, Ngadak Sempa Chemp built a small Lhakhang at this location. This was enlarged into the present monastery during the reign of Chogyal Chakdor Namgyal. Pedi Wangmo built the main monastery and installed many statues which are still seen in the monastery. Lhatsun Chenpo built the Chortens; which are considered holy. Yanchong Lodil, the Master craftsman crafted the flagstones that surround the monastery. These are carved with the holy Buddhist mantra 'Om Mane Padme Hum'.
ARCHITECTURE
An overall picture of the precincts of the monastery within the Tashiding town is provided in five distinct blocks namely, the Sinem market place, the outskirts, the main market place, the main Tashiding Monastery and the Chorten area.
The Sinek market place is located on an incline on the ridge between Rathong Chu and Rangeet River. There is a gompa here called the Sinolochu Gompa from where an approach leads to the Tashiding Monastery on the southern direction. The settlement is spread lengthwise and is 23 kilometres from Yuksom. A large 'Mani' stone is seen at the entrance to this settlement and the Tashiding market.
From the main market centre the approach to the Monastery is through a road, and also a foot path. The foot path in the southern direction has a gentle slope and passes through a Mani and then prayer wind wheels terminating at the entrance gate of the Monastery.
The Monastery itself consists of a 'Mani Lhakang' at the entrance surrounded by flags, and lead to the guest house. From this point ahead is the main 'Tashiding Gompa' which is called as Chogyal Lhakhang or the monastery, followed by the 'butter lamp house', four chortens, 'Tsenkhang', a new butter lamp house and finally terminating at the 'Guru Lhakhang', which is the temple of Guru Rinpoche. Other basic essential structures such as kitchen, school and residential housing are located on the left side of the approach path to the monastery.
In the 'Chorten area', there are 41 chortens categorised as 'Chortens of Enlightenment', 'Chortens of Reconciliation' and 'Chortens of Great Miracle', which are all of Rinpoches and Tathāgatas.
However, the main temple has undergone renovation work in modern times and rebuilt, but is still encircled by traditional buildings and chortens at the far end of the site, which holds the relics of Sikkim Chogyals and Lamas, including the 'Thong-Wa-rang-Dol' chorten which is believed to cleanse the soul of any person who looks at it.
Also of major note are the stone plates called the 'Mani', the work of Yanchong Lodil who inscribed them with the sacred Buddhist inscriptions, such as "Om Mane Padme Hum".
FESTIVALS
Bhumchu festival, which is linked by an ancient legend to Guru Padmasambhava, is about a divine vase filled with holy water kept in the monastery, which is opened for public display and worship every year on the night before the Full Moon day in the first month of Tibetan calendar. Bhumchu (Bhum=pot; Chu=water) is a Buddhist festival celebrated to predict the future. In this vase, water of Rathong chhu is stored for a year and kept in the Tashiding Monastery. It is opened during the festival by the lamas who inspect the water level and hence it is called the festival of holy water. The belief is that alteration in the quantity and quality of the water stored in the vase over a year would indicate the fortune of Sikkim and its people in the following year. If it is filled to the brim (which is interpreted as a measure of increase by 21 cups), the following year will be prosperous. If it is empty, famine will follow, and if it is half-filled also a prosperous year is predicted. If the water is polluted with dust it is interpreted as a sign of strife and clash. Once inspected and the Bhumchu festival is concluded, the lamas fill the vase with fresh water from the river and seal it for the opening in the following year.
The procedure followed for taking out the sacred water from the vase is that the first cup of sacred water is taken out for blessing the members of the Royal family of the Chogyals, then the second cup is meant for the Lamas and the third cup of water is meant for the devotees to whom it is distributed. Pilgrims come to the monastery from all regions of Sikkim to be blessed with the holy water. The festival is of particular importance to the Bhutias (ethnic Tibeteans) of Sikkim who hold the “life-sustaining water of the rivers” with great reverence. The festival falls on the 15th day Full Moon day of the first Tibetan month or Hindu month of Magh corresponding to February/March according to Gregorian calendar.
The basic purpose of the festival is to highlight the importance of water as a precious resource to be conserved and its purity preserved. The prophecy also sends a message to the people that waters should not be polluted and its environmental importance is propagated.
WIKIPEDIA
Usha Rao-Monari, Chief Executive Officer, Global Water Development Partners, USA speaking during the Session "Future-Proofing Ecosystems through Predictive Analytics with Australian National University" at the Annual Meeting 2018 of the World Economic Forum in Davos, January 23, 2018
Copyright by World Economic Forum / Sandra Blaser
My father predicted that the world would end the day after my birth. The entire planet of Krypton prepared rockets and other supplies to survive. When the planet wasn't destroyed my father was ridiculed and thought of as a fool.
I grew into a man, married a beautiful woman and had a son, Kon El. Though the day after my son was born my father's predictions proved right. As Kon El and I visited my father, we looked out the window and saw a fire rising across the planet. My father quickly stuffed me and my son into an escape pod and said " Quickly my son, you two must escape!" He then hit the launch button and sent us flying without my beloved wife.
Our ship flew through the sky as me and my son watched our home planet be destroyed behind us. Kon El burst into tears as we soared through space. We eventually crashed into a small green and blue planet called Earth. We landed in front of a small house.
------------------------------------------------------
CRASH
"Honey! A space ship just crashed into our yard!" Yelled an old man "I'm gettin' my gun!"
"There is no space ship in our yard you're just having another senior moment."
"No that is definitely a real alien space ship I'm going to check it out!"
"Whatever."
The old man approached the spaceship and the cockpit opened. Two human looking people came out, a man and a baby. Startled, the old man said "W-who are you?"
The man replied "I am Kal El and this is my son Kon El.
Brian Schmidt, Vice-Chancellor, Australian National University, Australia speaking during the Session "Future-Proofing Ecosystems through Predictive Analytics with Australian National University" at the Annual Meeting 2018 of the World Economic Forum in Davos, January 23, 2018
Copyright by World Economic Forum / Sandra Blaser
ue to system problems I was unable to upload this series of images until today.
On the 4th & 5th October 2016, leading international thinkers in the areas of Data, Predictive Models, Technology and Decision making gathered at the RDS, Dublin, for Predict 2016. The speakers, many of whom I managed to photograph, discussed the latest progress in Predictive Modelling and its future – from Data to Software and Hardware technology, plus Predictive Modelling methods and the best examples of Data-driven Decision-making.
The organisers kindly invited me to the Predict event at the RDS. In case your are interested I used a Sony A7RM2 coupled with a Sony 29-135 full frame lens. The lens does attract a lot of attention which allows me to to have interesting interesting people … volunteers, students from Brazil, photographers etc.
While waiting for the parade I couldn't resist capturing this little scene, a battle royale between the forces of Law and Fashion! This police officer was stationed in the middle of the main crossroads in town, down one street of which would be coming the Sealed Knot troop parade. It was his duty to control the traffic, and in this case to stop it, all of it, which meant that all the traffic had to stop and queue at the junction. Most drivers patiently waited but a minority of drivers responded to the 40 minute mind-numbing wait in their own way; some sounded their horns, others got out of their cars and debated or argued with this officer. He was having none of it and with remarkable patience he told one and all the same thing; "No, madam/sir, you can't be an exception, so go back to your car and wait. Now, please."
This fashionable lady drew particular attention from the curb-standing crowd. Two old ladies next to me brought a smile to my face when one whispered quite loudly, "Is she actually wearing anything under that cape?" and the other replied, "Just knickers and tights, dear! Knickers and tights!", while several teenage boys were all, "Cor!" and "Look at the legs on her!" plus other more, unprintable, Benny Hill show type comments. People, eh! :-)
Btw, the policeman, contrary to his fascist-like body posture, was actually being helpful and giving her directions for when she would finally be able to drive off. Unlike the young boy-racer that lost his cool and started bad-mouthing the policeman, who told him in no uncertain terms to clear off pronto or get nicked! As usual with these gutless, gobby yobs, they're all mouth and no trousers and he retreated, but not without adopting that stupid, cocky swagger they have and the liberal use of foul language in order to recoup his loss of face before the gathered throngs. For some bizarre reason he seemed to think it made him a man, a tough man. No, you prat, it just makes you look like a prat. Actually, it confirms that you are a prat, not just someone who looks like one. Real men don't behave like that. So alert your brain cell and pay attention.
Sorry, rant over, I just can't do with pig ignorant, foul-mouthed, waste of skin, pretend men, louts. :-)
I was hoping this weekend I'd be able to get out and about with my precious (my camera, not Jay ;-) ) and shoot some landscape work, major or mini-me landscapes, I don't care really, I just need to get some nature on my mc, I've done so little this winter with the atrocious weather. But, the forecasters have now put out a major weather alert for an Atlantic storm heading this way with 80mph winds, rain, sleet, hail and snow, and they're predicting it will last for the best part of two days, this weekend days! Arrrrgggghhhh! :-( Back to the archives, eh!
iTAPEN
I have predictive text software on my cell phone
that attempts to guess the words that I will type.
I am curious because the words in the software's dictionary are not, what I would think, popular choices...
When I start to type "people"
I get "Pensacola"
Can my phone really think that's a
More common choice to be used in a text message?
When I start to type "I'd"
I get "G'day"
A contraction I've never used in my life.
(but I just might start)
"Still" is predicted as "7th" (I guess for 7th inning)
"Walk" gets "Y2K" (big news 7 years ago...)
"Synagogue" gets "symbioses" (a relationship of species)
"Vagina" gets "vaginae"?
(I had no idea that was the plural)
When I start to type "Christopher"
I get "Christchurch"
I had to look this up, it's a city in New Zealand.
Funnily enough, "gastrointestinal" it gives me off the bat...
But when I start to type "salary"
My phone in all it's infinite wisdom gives me a word
I've never heard: "Rajarshi"
(for the mp3 click below)
The glass facade of the Hancock Tower (now called 200 Clarendon, 1976) with the weather-predicting spire of the old Hancock Building (now called the Berkeley Building, 1947). In the Back Bay.
Fimmvörðuháls, Iceland. 25.06.2011.
On our way up the first half of Fimmvörðuháls hiking route.
About this hike:
I try to hike every time I come home to Iceland in the summertime. This time I hiked with my friend Bolli Pétur who is a priest in North-Iceland. We hiked the famous route Fimmvörðuháls which starts in Skógar and ends in Þórsmörk (you can also do it the other way round).
We decided to do it in two days instead of the usual one day and stayed in a hut between the glaciers (Eyjafjallajökull and Mýrdalsjökull). The hut, Fimmvörðuskáli, lies only few hundreds meters away from a recent eruption in Fimmvörðuháls and on one site you have Eyjafjallajökull which recently erupted and on the other site you have Mýrdalsjökull with the infamous volcano Katla which is predicted to erupt very soon. I admit that I didn´t sleep much that night..... ;)
You can see the route explained in this picture of mine: www.flickr.com/photos/sigfus/6225915030/
About Fimmvörðuháls:
Fimmvörðuháls is the area between the glaciers Eyjafjallajökull and Mýrdalsjökull in southern Iceland. The route between Skógar and Thórsmörk goes through this pass and is one of the most popular walking routes in Iceland, despite being 22km long and involving 1000m of climbing. At Fimmvörðuháls there is a modern comfortable mountain hut owned by Útivist, one of the Icelandic hiking associations. Also nearby there is an older, less equipped hut called Baldvinsskáli. The route from Skógar is particularly beautiful as numerous waterfalls are passed along the way. The route is only accessible between mid-June and late-August. On the night of 16 May 1970, three travellers died on the mountain pass in a snowstorm.
Read more here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fimmv%C3%B6r%C3%B0uh%C3%A1ls
Today I attended the first day of the Predict Conference 2015 at the RDS. I will not be able to attend tomorrow but I hope to return on Thursday.
The on-going conference Conference (organised by industry-leader Creme Global) is an interactive meeting. It will, over three days, feature leading international thinkers in the areas of Data, Predictive Models, Technology and Decision making. At the meeting, we will be discussing the latest progress in Predictive Modelling and its future - from Data to Software and Hardware technology, plus Predictive Modelling methods and the best examples of Data-driven Decision-making.
Talks from leading entrepreneurs, data scientists, technologists, investors, and decision-makers (from business and government) will include case-studies and hands-on workshops. This conference has a focus on Data and Predictive Modelling technology like no other.
Investor Sir Richard Branson, who was pictured behind the wheel of a Hailo branded cab today to announce the business landmark, predicted that the number of UK and worldwide registered drivers would double within a year due to the rapid growth of the simple, free smartphone app.
Sir Richard who is known for his forays into all air, rail and space travel said that he was hugely excited to be one of Hailo’s backers playing a part in helping to revolutionise city transport with Hailo which has enjoyed a meteoric rise since the app was launched in November 2011.
www.fastcoexist.com/1681873/twitter-can-predict-the-stock...
Twitter Can Predict The Stock Market, If You’re Reading The Right Tweets
In a world where one tweet can send Wall Street into a panic, social analytics company Dataminr tries to be there first, scanning all of Twitter to find individual messages with the right combination of language, context, and location that might end up being breaking--and money-making--news.
Earlier this week, the Associated Press Twitter account posted the following--false--message: "BREAKING: Two Explosions in the White House and Barack Obama is injured." It didn’t take long for other sources to demonstrate that the president was fine and the AP account hacked, but it was long enough for the stock markets to take a nose dive. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes fropped by close to 1%, the equivalent of hundreds of billions of dollars changing hands.
The incident may prove that Twitter needs better security and algorithmic traders need better quality control, but it’s also evidence of something simpler: News impacts financial markets, and that news is increasingly breaking on Twitter. Dataminr--a social analytics company with clients in finance, government and the larger corporate world--takes this dynamic one step further. They use Twitter to beat the news. “It’s the lack of someone who is a news commentator or a news source saying it,” says Dataminr founder and CEO Peter Bailey. “The point is the things that aren’t there.”
“We look at every user across Twitter and understand everything that they’ve published and their relative influence on any topic.”
Dataminr can find market-moving information not yet in the news because they aren’t limited to following some manageable group of friends or trusted accounts. They have access to the entire “Firehose” of Twitter’s approximately 200 million active users, and they use it. “We look at every user across Twitter and understand everything that they’ve published and their relative influence on any topic that we know and their local influence,” Bailey says.
The “we” that looks at that deluge of data isn’t Dataminr’s approximately 35 employees; It’s their algorithms. To understand how they work, it helps to have an example.
On March 8, a Royal Caribbean cruise ship arrived in Port Everglades, Florida with 105 passengers and three crew members sick with norovirus. When that news broke, it sent Royal Carribean Cruises Ltd. Share prices tumbling by 2.9%. But Dataminr clients had the news 48 minutes earlier.
The tweet that tipped them off came at 1:00 p.m., from South Florida news channel WSVN: "“Royal Caribbean’s Vision of the Seas cruise ship has pulled into Port Everglades after an outbreak of norovirus on board.” Dataminr’s algorithm found that tweet, and not by searching for "norovirus" or "Royal Caribbean." ”We detected a slight blip, linguistically,” Bailey tells me, again using “we” to denote the software. “And we saw that the source who published it was one that had local influence.”
“How much context can you possibly put around a tweet?”
The algorithm found that words within the tweet had some resemblance to tweets in the past that had turned out to be newsworthy, and that there was a clear immediate reaction to the tweet, though it had not yet rippled out to national news sources and market commentators.
All of these algorithmic calculations were made with great speed. At 1:02 p.m., only two minutes after the original tweet, relevant Dataminr clients got an email and an alert started flashing in the bottom corner of the screens. It provided not just the WSVN tweet, but an analysis of why it was important. “It’s like, ‘How much context can you possibly put around a tweet?’” said Bailey.
As for what clients did with this early information, Bailey says he is "contractually confined" from giving details. But Dataminr said at least one client told them directly that the alert save their firm money. Dataminr has always declined to name their clients in the press, but in a presentation at the 2011 Devnest meet-up, they did say that their clients included “three of the top five bulge-bracket investment banks, as well as a leading $15 billion equities hedge fund.”
In the case of Royal Caribbean, traders knowing market-moving news 48 minutes in advance probably meant a big one-time payday. But Dataminr also has government clients--they’re currently hiring three government-focused employees. It’s easy to understand state interest in Twitter intelligence in an age where "Twitter Revolution" recurs in headlines every few months. Just as financial clients use intelligence to further their bottom lines, we can only assume that Dataminr’s clients in the government will be putting the Twitter "Firehose" to work for their own goals, at home and abroad.
via TechCrunch tcrn.ch/SJMjVR
Founded in 2008 after more than a decade of research at Stanford, Silicon Valley-based startup, Ayasdi, is on a mission to reinvent the methods by which we transform Big Data into actionable knowledge. Essentially, Ayasdi aims to automate the insight discovery process, allowing end users to find valuable intelligence within massive datasets almost instantaneously. Backed by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and the National Science Foundation, the startup’s novel synthesis of machine learning and data analysis technologies has not gone unnoticed by investors.
Today, the startup announced that it has raised $10 million in series A financing, led by Khosla Ventures and Floodgate. The new round brings the startup’s total funding to $13.25 million, which includes contributions both from its current investors as well as angel investors like Michael Ovitz, Steve Blank and The Data Collective’s Matt Ocko, to name a few.
The investment comes at a time when venture capital is beginning to shift from consumer businesses to the enterprise, as investors look to capitalize on the rise of the big data app and the growing demand for a new data infrastructure.
In fact, Research firm IDC recently predicted that the Big Data market is poised for exponential growth over the next few years, with total revenue projected to reach $24 billion by 2016. What’s more, following Derrick Harris’ logic, if one includes analytics software (arguably an essential segment of the Big Data market) in that definition, then the total is actually upwards of $75 billion.
Yet, in spite of this enormous new market opportunity, the emergence of Big Data doesn’t necessarily directly translate into a net positive for business, humankind, etc. In other words, people tend to conflate information and data, such that we end up believing that more data inherently means (proportionately) more information, which in turn means (proportionately) more intelligence, insight and value. However, as Dr. Michael Wu points out, it’s quite literally the opposite: “The more data you have, the less information you gain as a proportion of the data.”
The true value of Big Data is derived from the insights hidden within, yet, while all insights are information, not all information produces insight. Big Data is comprised of enormous amounts of unstructured data, a wide array of data types and media, but the amount of insight that can be extracted from that data is proportionately tiny.
Big Data continues to grow, yet, while governments, businesses and scientists have spent years (and millions of dollars) attempting to address the world’s biggest problems by analyzing Big Data, progress has been incremental. Although Big Data tools have improved over time, Ayasdi is of the mindset that they are still failing to yield the kind of breakthrough insights that lead to true innovation.
The Ayasdi co-founders attribute this to the prevailing reliance among data scientists on old models — finding insights by asking questions and writing queries. The problem with this is that queries are inherently based on human assumptions and biases, and, in turn, query results tend to only reveal slices of data, rather than providing visibility into the relationships between similar groups of data. This method of discovering insight in Big Data tends to be rely heavily on iterative guesswork and chance, and thus takes time to produce real results.
To address this problem, Ayasdi is today officially launching its cloud-based insight discovery platform, which aims to deliver insight derived from massive datasets quickly, without relying on queries. The machine learning platform combines computer science with a branch of mathematics called “Topological Data Analysis,” which allows Ayasdi to visualize entire datasets at once.
The startup’s platform uses hundreds of machine learning algorithms to explore these complex datasets — the goal being the automatic discovery of insights that could not be discovered through ad hoc or query-based methods. The platform, which is designed for domain experts, data scientists and researchers, requires no coding or modeling and offers the kind of scalability that more demanding processing requires. It also is built to complement other Big Data solutions companies might already be using and is able to work with datasets of any size or type, the co-founders tell us.
The startup is currently working with enterprise customers in financial services, life sciences, oil and gas and the public sector, with these companies employing its platform to help discover new drugs, for example, improve cancer therapy by discovering new insights from an 11-year old breast cancer dataset that included new sub-populations of breast cancer survivors, for example. It’s also being used to explore new energy sources, identifying patterns that can lead to more accurate drilling, predict fraud and help prevent terrorist attacks.
“The answers to today’s most important scientific, business and social problems lie in data,” saus Ayasdi CEO Gurjeet Singh. “The biggest challenge in Big Data today is asking the right questions of data, so the real opportunity in Big Data lies in the automation of insight discovery — regardless of the complexity of that data — without requiring users to ask questions. The goal is for Ayasdi to provide users with answers to questions that they didn’t know to ask in the first place.”
David Lindenmayer, Professor, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Australia speaking during the Session "Future-Proofing Ecosystems through Predictive Analytics with Australian National University" at the Annual Meeting 2018 of the World Economic Forum in Davos, January 23, 2018
Copyright by World Economic Forum / Sandra Blaser
The Vancouver School Board has a history of predicting large deficits early in the budget process, and ending up with a large surplus.
Learn more: news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2016EDUC0065-001194
Photo by: Katharina Träg www.kate3000g.tumblr.com
With Ryan Bishop, Tobias Revell, Stephen Graham, Sarah Kember
What situations and relations of control over self, work, leisure and everyday life are emerging in the paradigm of the Smart City?
Predicted groundwater to be removed for these central Queensland mines is 1,354 billion litres. That's 2.5 times the volume of water in the Sydney Harbour. Read more at www.lockthegate.org.au/draining_the_lifeblood
Rockwell Automation has added new tools to its Pavilion8 model predictive control software, giving users the ability to create simple to complex process models on their own. For more information, visit phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=196186&p=irol-ne...
this was one of (maybe the first, i'm not sure!) video that i shot stills on. it's kaiser chiefs shooting the original video for I Predict A Riot in september 2004.
it was done at itch film in north london by charlie paul (he did some automatic/ ordinary boys stuff too, and is awesome) and generally invovled the band playing while lots of fans had a pillow fight.
finally got the photos up on my new site, so click here if you wanna go see them!
ue to system problems I was unable to upload this series of images until today.
On the 4th & 5th October 2016, leading international thinkers in the areas of Data, Predictive Models, Technology and Decision making gathered at the RDS, Dublin, for Predict 2016. The speakers, many of whom I managed to photograph, discussed the latest progress in Predictive Modelling and its future – from Data to Software and Hardware technology, plus Predictive Modelling methods and the best examples of Data-driven Decision-making.
The organisers kindly invited me to the Predict event at the RDS. In case your are interested I used a Sony A7RM2 coupled with a Sony 29-135 full frame lens. The lens does attract a lot of attention which allows me to to have interesting interesting people … volunteers, students from Brazil, photographers etc.
Predicting the future is hard. But when we are on the road, there are cars ahead of us that can see what we will see in a few minutes or a few hours into our future. Carlo vd Weijer explains how by linking our increasingly smart cars together we will soon be able to plan when we will be in a traffc jam. TEDxBrainport 2012
Photo by: Katharina Träg www.kate3000g.tumblr.com
With Ryan Bishop, Tobias Revell, Stephen Graham, Sarah Kember
What situations and relations of control over self, work, leisure and everyday life are emerging in the paradigm of the Smart City?
Impression from the Session "Future-Proofing Ecosystems through Predictive Analytics with Australian National University" at the Annual Meeting 2018 of the World Economic Forum in Davos, January 23, 2018
Copyright by World Economic Forum / Sandra Blaser
WI: Predictive dialer phone banking at the USW District 2 office
From left: Paul Footit, USW District 2 and Chuck Geiger, Blue Green Alliance Organizer for USW District 2, use the predictive dialer to phone bank Tuesday, September 30, 2008.
The USW District 2 office in Menasha, Wisconsin now has five predictive dialers for phone banking.
(Photo credit: Casie Yoder)