View allAll Photos Tagged Probability
See my main account for my photography, videos, fractal images and more here: www.flickr.com/photos/josh-rokman/
Made with Image Creator from Microsoft Designer, formerly known as the Bing Image Creator. Powered by DALL·E 3.
I think that AI image generation is similar in many ways to photography. The camera itself handles all the fine details, but the photographer is in charge of curating the types of images that will be created.
Ultimately, it is all about maximizing the probability that something good will be created.
This is very similar to AI image generation, in terms of the skills involved and what the human does vs. what the machine does.
You can't compare AI image generation to the process of actually making these images from scratch with 3D software or paint/pencils, where the human controls every detail.
However, I think the process really is very similar to that of photography, as I made the case for above. I think that DALL-E 3 is by far the most powerful AI image generation tool currently available.
- Josh
An hour earlier, I stood on top of Coltraiseal Beag, overlooking the southernmost tract of the sprawling Loch Ròg, generally not expecting the day to get much better. I'd climbed the hill with a new paraglider that I really needed to take out for a proper thermic flight so that I could decide whether it handled in a way I'd enjoy if I kept it, but the weather didn't appear to be working in my favour. A perfect 'street' of clouds had formed, starting almost above my head and extending for miles, like an aerial spine, north through the heart of the island. If I were soaring near them I'd be almost guaranteed to remain there, harnessing the converging, rising air caused by sea-breeze from both east and west coasts being drawn in to replace the warm air that was being cooked off the land in the sun; the problem was, getting off the ground in the first place. No wind, or a little puff in an awkward direction, and most of the land below the hill in the shadow of the very clouds that I desperately wanted to be climbing underneath, left me resigned to the probability of my vertical journey only having one direction. The sun did break through, but yet there was no wind, not even a cycle of a thermal rolling up the face of the hill. Frustrated by the midgies, and overheating in the sun, I took off my down jacket, packed it in my harness, then clipped back in ready for the 'sled-run' back to the car. Finally, a breeze rolled up the hill; at least now my short flight wouldn't have to start with a clumsy sprint across rocky and uneven ground. As I pulled on the wing to kite it into the breeze, I realised it was a strong gust, and before I knew it I was airbourne. The assessment of the grace of the launch was dismissed quickly as I realised it might just be possible to soar a little after all.
Ten minutes of searching the face of the hill for lift paid off, and ten minutes later again, I found myself popping out of the side of a cloud here, 1200m above Loch Ròg. To the west, I looked down on clouds that had formed below me, ode to the dampness of the air nearer the coast, and surveyed a view out to the Atlantic Ocean. To the south-west the unmistakeable profile of St Kilda loomed on the horizon; to the north and west the islands and coastline Loch Ròg and the south-west Lewis coast were laid out before me, and below my feet; to the north-east the moorland of Lewis extended seemingly endlessly; and to the south-east, the mountains of Harris competed with the profiles of Skye and Wester Ross for my attention.
Now in air 10 degrees cooler than the top of the hill, compounded by soaring through the damp air in the shadow of the base of the clouds, I was simultaeneously elated at where I was, and shivering at being in an effective termperature close to zero degrees, with nothing more than a thin wool top on. And so it was but a brief visit to the Hebridean heavens, but now I've seen what's possible I know I'll be back to explore more of it..
This view looks along Loch Ròg Beag, below, with Great Bernerary half in sun a little in from the right of the frame. The beach in the distance near the centre of the frame is Traigh na Berigh, and a little bit of Traigh Uige can be seen at the far left of the frame. I'll tag some of the places of interest on the photo once uploaded.
This surface is planar and horizontal. There's a lineation from upper right to lower left; a record of the prevailing weather; perhaps? Something has lined up the black bits. The surface itself is grus — weathered granite. Now we're getting somewhere!
Underlying all this, on a regional scale, are soils weathered from the deep sea sediments of the Pittman Formation. This grus is evidently not in situ!
Until roughly thirty years ago, this was impoverished and unproductive farmland. It couldn't have paid for the transport of grus on the scale of the roads it now paves. But when the leasehold land was resumed by Government, public resources could.
Wait! What's that? There's a plastic bag weathering out of the compacted surface. Here's where stratigraphy meets hypothesis. If it is improbable that anyone would scratch away at the compacted road surface to bury a plastic bag, then it must be older or contemporaneous with the laying down of the grus!
Alarmingly, here's an evidently 30+ years old piece of plastic garbage, slowly fragmenting and scattering into the environment. This is how we'll be remembered — as stratigraphic markers in the Anthropocene …a.k.a. the Plasticene Epoch.
Details of water cooled copper coils as part of the MOLLER Experiment is seen inside the SRF Test Lab at Jefferson Lab in Newport News, Va., on Wednesday, May 9, 2024. (Aileen Devlin | Jefferson Lab)
The Measurement of a Lepton-Lepton Electroweak Reaction (MOLLER) experiment proposes to measure the parity-violating asymmetry in electron-electron (Møller) scattering. The measurement will be carried out at Jefferson Laboratory's state-of-the-art accelerator by rapidly flipping the longitudinal polarization of electrons that have been accelerated to 11 GeV and observing the resulting fractional difference in the probability of these electrons scattering off atomic electrons in a liquid hydrogen target. This asymmetry is proportional to the weak charge of the electron, which in turn is a function of the electroweak mixing angle, a fundamental parameter of the electroweak theory. The accuracy of the proposed measurement allows for a low energy determination of the mixing angle with precision on par with the two best measurements at electron-positron colliders.
A tractor scrapes a dusty field in Leduc County.
Over the next two weeks, Environment and Climate Change Canada forecasts a low probability of significant rainfall throughout the driest regions of the Prairies. There was no rainfall in April in the Edmonton region that I remember or that I can find recorded. With little to no spring runoff, on-farm water supplies are very low, forcing some producers to begin to haul water for farm operations.
IMGP2815
Explore #161
One song can spark a moment
One flower can wake the dream
One tree can start a forest
One bird can herald spring
One smile begins a friendship
One handclasp lifts a soul
One star can guide a ship at sea
One word can frame the goal
One vote can change a nation
One sunbeam lights a room
One candle wipes out darkness
One laugh will conquer gloom
One step must start each journey
One word must start each prayer
One hope will raise our spirits
One touch can show you care
One voice can speak with wisdom
One heart can know what's true
One life can make the difference
You see, it's up to you!!
Take care and let us be as one ;) Car xx
Today's Carsounds- Bob Marley - One Love
[Chrysis Linnæus 1761: 1,000 (IT: 94) spp]
Same specimen, frontal, ventral, dorsal and sx side. Cfr. notes¹ over the above image.
The Chrysis ignita complex is the largest Chrysis group (⁓100 spp) and a microevolution model with multiple closely related, locally coexisting sibling spp, weakly genetically differentiated spp pairs & high probability of sympatric / parapatric speciation.
NOTES
1. TBL 8 mm.
REFERENCES
D.H.N. Thomas & al. 2023: Iridescent camouflage.
C. Cai & al. 2020: Structural colours in mesozoic insects.
K.V. Martynova 2020: Chrysididæ cocoons.
G.A.R. Melo & D.A.A. Lucena 2019: †Chrysobythidæ f.n.
T. Pauli & al. 2018: Chrysididæ phylogeny, pp. 9-10.
S. Orlovskytė & al. 2016: Chrysis ignita complex.
J. Paukkunen & al. 2015: Chrysididæ of nordic / baltic countries.
V. Soon & al. 2014: Chrysis ignita sp. group in northern EU.
J. Kroiss & al. 2009: Chrysididæ iridescence.
M. Doucet & M.G. Meadows 2009: Animal iridescence.
E. Strohm & al. 2008: Hedychrum rutilans chemical mimicry.
L.S. Kimsey & R.M. Bohart 1990: Chrysididæ of the world, p. 349.
Manchester's Peregrine Falcon (Falco Peregrinus) (male) with prey. I watched this bird land on a building but on a part which meant it was out of sight. I stood on a wall to get as high as possible and waited for the bird to emerge. Peregrines can take a long time to butcher their prey items and it took this one about 3/4s of an hour before I saw it emerge with the prey item. I sometimes question if I made the right decision to stand on the wall because it meant that I could not turn around for what would in all probability be just another back shot. The bird on this occasion attempted a very low food pass to a juvenile so I missed the shot. So there you go, you live by the decisions you make.
I might add that the pass was not successful.
As pretty and tranquil as Whiteman's Valley is, this Wreck was a rather sad sight to come across the other day.
Twenty-four hours earlier, this was no doubt someone's pride and joy,. It could have been their first car, and they might have spent all their savings buying it... In all probability, the Owner has been left feeling violated, cheated, robbed and upset - and maybe with no way of either getting to their new job, or getting to a crucial school exam...!
It was a very sad sight indeed...!
I've got some work to do before Sunday, so if you don't hear from me over the next few days, be assured: I'm ok but busy trying to write something that might be inspirational...!
Keep well everyone, and thanks for taking the time and the trouble to leave a Comment...! It's always nice to hear from you, and your comments are always greatly appreciated...!
Some Words..
That August afternoon I was out to shoot some seascapes during sunset.
I had heard the weather forecast the night before and I was expecting a lot of clouds and maybe some rain (I also had in mind the probability of a storm) but to be honest, I hadn't imagined something like this !
Anyway, I drove to a nearby beach just after 18.00 (local time) and took a place down to the sand, having my tripod in front of me with my camera on it.
And very soon the weather went crazy. The strong wind bring closer some menacing clouds and the thunderstorm party began, with me watching breathless in the front seat !
Wow ! Just wow ! It was an amazing experience !
Technique
Damn, I hate saying it, but for this type of shooting, I always shoot Raw...
Nikon D800 has an amazing dynamic range and when you shoot raw, you simply get the best out of it..
So, to continue, I didn't use any special gadget to catch the lightning. It was all about timing.
I found a nice looking scene, set the White balance to cloudy to warm things up and started to “count”..
You see, I had to count the time between lightnings to find what was the "interval" and when I found it, it was just a matter of time to catch a lightning with my camera.
Christophe Anagnostopoulos
...the clock ticks...decisions are made alone...somtimes the outcome is due to probability and chance...other times it is the culmination of reason and logic...but, always there are consequences...
NOTE: I INADVERTENTLY DELETED THIS PHOTOGRAPH WHILE TRYING TO DO SOME 'HOUSE CLEANING' AND I AM RE-POSTING IT. FORTUNATELY I ONLY PUT IT IN ONE GROUP. UNFORTUNATELY, A LOT OF PEOPLE FAVED IT...FOR THAT I APOLOGIZE!.. .THEREFORE, I'M STARTING OVER...'CHOICES & CONSEQUENCES'...HOW FITTING AND IRONIC...!!! ... PERFECT, REALLY...
Location:This shot was taken from the summit of Mount Washburn, (10,243 ft) looking south toward the Teton Range and overlooking the Yellowstone cauldera...From this vantage point you can essentially see the edges of the volcano that formed the Yellowstone Plateau. The obvious canyon that is to the left and in front of this perspective is the 'Grand Canyon', which forces a divide between two mountains and in nearly a straight line all the way to Warm Springs (below). It was said in 1870 by Gustavious Doane '...It's depth is so profound that the river bed is no where visible. No sound reaches the ear from the bottom of the abyss: the suns rays are reflected on the further wall and then lost in the darkness below...". I'd say that was exactly my impression when I took this photograph When I was there this storm was rolling in from the SE and it was spectacular....
Hankyu Electric Railway Co., Ltd.: this company operates a powerful network of suburban railways around Ōsaka, of just over 140 km, which transports about 1.7 million daily travelers. For this, the railway has just over 1,300 vehicles, which normally form EMUs of eight cars, all of them painted in the characteristic garnet color that, in my opinion, makes them the most elegant trains in Japan.
On board an Express train of the Takarazuka Main Line to Ōsaka Umeda, we can observe the driver following the safety procedure pointing and calling (shisa kanko), for avoiding mistakes by pointing at important indicators and calling out the status. It has been shown that the probability of occurrence of errors or accidents at work is significantly reduced by applying this procedure.
Like all the drivers of Japan, our protagonist follows the procedure closely, with a really admirable concentration in his. (No less Japanese and admirable is the impeccable uniform).
Superbloom Carrizo Plains National Monument Tembler Ranger Desert Spring Wildflowers Fine Art Photography 45EPIC Dr. Elliot McGucken Fine Art Landscape and Nature Photography! God Spilled the Bucket of Paint!
Greetings mate! I love voyaging forth into nature to contemplate poetry, physics, the golden ratio, and the Tao te Ching! What's your favorite epic poetry reflecting epic landscapes? I recently finished a book titled Epic Poetry for Epic Landscape Photographers:
www.facebook.com/Epic-Poetry-for-Epic-Landscape-Photograp...
Did you know that John Muir, Thoreau, and Emerson all loved epic poetry and poets including Shakespeare, Milton, Homer, and Robert Burns?
I recently finished my fourth book on Light Time Dimension Theory, much of which was inspired by an autumn trip to Zion!
www.facebook.com/lightimedimensiontheory/
Via its simple principle of a fourth expanding dimension, LTD Theory provides a unifying, foundational *physical* model underlying relativity, quantum mechanics, time and all its arrows and asymmetries, and the second law of thermodynamics. The detailed diagrams demonstrate that the great mysteries of quantum mechanical nonlocality, entanglement, and probability naturally arise from the very same principle that fosters relativity alongside light's constant velocity, the equivalence of mass and energy, and time dilation.
Follow me on instagram!
Join my new 45EPIC fine art landscapes page on facebook!
Fresh snow! More on my golden ratio musings: The Golden Number Ratio Principle: Why the Fibonacci Numbers Exalt Beauty and How to Create PHI Compositions in Art, Design, & Photography facebook.com/goldennumberratio
Best wishes on your epic hero's odyssey!:)
Zion National Park Autumn Colors & Winter Snow Fine Art Photography 45EPIC Dr. Elliot McGucken Fine Art Landscape and Nature Photography
Love shooting with both the sony A7RII and the Nikon D810! :)
45EPIC Dr. Elliot McGucken Fine Art Landscape and Nature Photography
Dictionary may defines luck as being an unknown and unpredictable phenomenon that causes an event, good or ill, to result in a person’s life. I tend to disagree with this definition. I define luck as simply being the end result of consistent, persistent effort towards a meaningful goal.
Did not get the point. Let me make the things more clear. Imagine you’re holding a Gun and you’re pointing it at a target 100 yards down range. Unless you’re an expert marksman, there’s only a small statistical probability that you’re going to hit the bulls eye the first time. But if you keep firing and correcting your aim, the law of statistical probability dictates that eventually you must hit the bull’s-eye. Creating luck in your life obeys the same law of statistical probability—if you keep performing actions that lead towards your goal, eventually you are going to reach that goal. So luck in life is guaranteed, you just have to be willing to try enough times.
So let me boil down this into some simple rules.
Identify your target and keep firing & Believe that you are lucky.
Taken: a hundred year old double barreled shotgun of my friend's grandfather, in hand of my friend and me practicing some Depth of Field.
Not posted for a while, sorry. Have now joined Instagram, so have been posting on there for a bit to get used to it. I will be using both Flickr and IG but probability have some different photos on each one.
These photos are from last week where I got the chance to be Ann for 5 days, so went on some adventurers. The first image is my arrival back home from the cinema to see Downton Abbey (bit of a fan) then poped into the Crown LGBTQ pub. The other two photos are my travels up to Leeds to do some shopping.
In the end, all the grit and tenacity in the world must bow to the laws of probability. - Shockwave (Spotlight issue)
Hit it up Shockwave Sized.
Agent Orange was one of the herbicides and defoliants used by the U.S. military as part of its chemical warfare program in Operation Ranch Hand (1962–1971) during the Vietnam War.
In 1969, it was revealed that the 2,4,5-T used to produce Agent Orange was mixed with tetrachlorodibenzodioxin, an extremely toxic dioxin compound.
Between 1962 and 1971, the U.S. military sprayed 76 million liters of this compound in Vietnam, eastern Laos, and parts of Cambodia.
Its use left terrible consequences for the population of that country (Vietnam estimates that three million Vietnamese were victims, and 500,000 children were born with birth defects as a result of its use) and for the U.S. soldiers themselves: the effects are most noticeable in the offspring of those exposed, who have a high probability of suffering from birth defects. In 1984, a lawsuit brought by U.S. war veterans against the chemical companies that supplied Agent Orange (including Dow Chemical, Monsanto, and Diamond Shamrock) resulted in a $93 million settlement for soldiers for health damages. However, lawsuits filed by the Vietnamese Association of Agent Orange Victims have been rejected.
El Agente Naranja fue uno de los herbicidas y defoliantes utilizados por los militares estadounidenses como parte de su programa de guerra química en la operación Ranch Hand (1962-1971), durante la guerra de Vietnam.
En 1969 se hizo público que el 2,4,5-T utilizado para producir el agente naranja estaba mezclado con tetraclorodibenzodioxina, un compuesto de dioxina extremadamente tóxico.
Entre 1962 y 1971, el ejército de Estados Unidos roció 76 000 000 de litros de este compuesto en Vietnam, el este de Laos y partes de Camboya.
Su uso dejó terribles secuelas en la población de aquel país (Vietnam estima que tres millones de vietnamitas fueron víctimas, y 500 000 niños nacieron con malformaciones congénitas como resultado de su uso) y en los propios soldados estadounidenses: las secuelas se notan principalmente en los descendientes de los sujetos expuestos, que tienen grandes probabilidades de sufrir malformaciones. En 1984, una acción judicial impulsada por veteranos de guerra estadounidenses contra las compañías químicas suministradoras del Agente Naranja (entre ellas Dow Chemical, Monsanto, y Diamond Shamrock) desembocó en un acuerdo de 93 millones de dólares americanos en indemnizaciones para los soldados, por daños a la salud. Sin embargo, las demandas presentadas por la Asociación Vietnamita de Víctimas del Agente Naranja, han sido rechazadas.
Bảo tàng Chứng tích Chiến tranh
War Remnants Museum
Hồ Chí Minh City - Vietnam
THANK YOU ALL for your visits, comments and faves.
GRACIAS A TODOS por vuestras visitas, comentarios y favoritos.
Sea level drop refers to the phenomenon in which melting glaciers cause the surrounding land to rise.. Between 1901 and 2018, the average global sea level rose by 15–25 cm (6–10 in), or an average of 1–2 mm per year. This rate accelerated to 4.62 mm/yr for the decade 2013–2022.[3] Climate change due to human activities is the main cause. Between 1993 and 2018, thermal expansion of water accounted for 42% of sea level rise. Melting temperate glaciers accounted for 21%, with Greenland accounting for 15% and Antarctica 8%.: 1576 Sea level rise lags changes in the Earth's temperature. So sea level rise will continue to accelerate between now and 2050 in response to warming that is already happening. What happens after that will depend on what happens with human greenhouse gas emissions. Sea level rise may slow down between 2050 and 2100 if there are deep cuts in emissions. It could then reach a little over 30 cm (1 ft) from now by 2100. With high emissions it may accelerate. It could rise by 1 m (3+1⁄2 ft) or even 2 m (6+1⁄2 ft) by then.[6][7] In the long run, sea level rise would amount to 2–3 m (7–10 ft) over the next 2000 years if warming amounts to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). It would be 19–22 metres (62–72 ft) if warming peaks at 5 °C (9.0 °F): 21 meters. Rising seas ultimately impact every coastal and island population on Earth. This can be through flooding, higher storm surges, king tides, and tsunamis. These have many knock-on effects. They lead to loss of coastal ecosystems like mangroves. Crop production falls because of salinization of irrigation water and damage to ports disrupts sea trade. The sea level rise projected by 2050 will expose places currently inhabited by tens of millions of people to annual flooding. Without a sharp reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, this may increase to hundreds of millions in the latter decades of the century. Areas not directly exposed to rising sea levels could be affected by large scale migrations and economic disruption. At the same time, local factors like tidal range or land subsidence, as well as the varying resilience and adaptive capacity of individual ecosystems, sectors, and countries will greatly affect the severity of impacts. For instance, sea level rise along the United States (particularly along the US East Coast) is already higher than the global average, and it is expected to be 2 to 3 times greater than the global average by the end of the century. Yet, out of the 20 countries with the greatest exposure to sea level rise, 12 are in Asia. Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam collectively account for 70% of the global population exposed to sea level rise and land subsidence. Finally, the greatest near-term impact on human populations will occur in the low-lying Caribbean and Pacific islands—many of those would be rendered uninhabitable by sea level rise later this century.
Societies can adapt to sea level rise in three ways: by managed retreat, by accommodating coastal change, or by protecting against sea level rise through hard-construction practices like seawalls or soft approaches such as dune rehabilitation and beach nourishment. Sometimes these adaptation strategies go hand in hand; at other times choices must be made among different strategies. A managed retreat strategy is difficult if an area's population is quickly increasing: this is a particularly acute problem for Africa, where the population of low-lying coastal areas is projected to increase by around 100 million people within the next 40 years. Poorer nations may also struggle to implement the same approaches to adapt to sea level rise as richer states, and sea level rise at some locations may be compounded by other environmental issues, such as subsidence in so-called sinking cities. Coastal ecosystems typically adapt to rising sea levels by moving inland; but may not always be able to do so, due to natural or artificial barriers. Between 1901 and 2018, the global mean sea level rose by about 20 cm (or 8 inches). More precise data gathered from satellite radar measurements found a rise of 7.5 cm (3 in) from 1993 to 2017 (average of 2.9 mm/yr), accelerating to 4.62 mm/yr for the decade 2013–2022.
Regional variations: Sea level rise is not uniform around the globe. Some land masses are moving up or down as a consequence of subsidence (land sinking or settling) or post-glacial rebound (land rising due to the loss of weight from ice melt). Therefore, local relative sea level rise may be higher or lower than the global average. Gravitational effects of changing ice masses also add to differences in the distribution of sea water around the globe. When a glacier or an ice sheet melts, the loss of mass reduces its gravitational pull. In some places near current and former glaciers and ice sheets, this has caused local water levels to drop, even as the water levels will increase more than average further away from the ice sheet. Consequently, ice loss in Greenland has a different fingerprint on regional sea level than the equivalent loss in Antarctica. On the other hand, the Atlantic is warming at a faster pace than the Pacific. This has consequences for Europe and the U.S. East Coast, which receives a sea level rise 3–4 times the global average. The downturn of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has been also tied to extreme regional sea level rise on the US Northeast Coast. Many ports, urban conglomerations, and agricultural regions are built on river deltas, where subsidence of land contributes to a substantially increased relative sea level rise. This is caused by both unsustainable extraction of groundwater and oil and gas, as well as by levees and other flood management practices preventing the accumulation of sediments which otherwise compensates for the natural settling of deltaic soils, over 3 m (10 ft) in urban areas of the Mississippi River Delta (New Orleans), and over 9 m (30 ft) in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta. On the other hand, post-glacial isostatic rebound causes relative sea level fall around the Hudson Bay in Canada and the northern Baltic.
Projections: A comparison of SLR in six parts of the US. The Gulf Coast and East Coast see the most SLR, whereas the West Coast the least NOAA predicts different levels of sea level rise through 2050 for several US coastlines. There are two complementary ways of modeling sea level rise and making future projections. In the first approach, scientists use process-based modeling, where all relevant and well-understood physical processes are included in a global physical model. An ice-sheet model is used to calculate the contributions of ice sheets and a general circulation model is used to compute the rising sea temperature and its expansion. While some of the relevant processes may be insufficiently understood, this approach can predict non-linearities and long delays in the response, which studies of the recent past will miss. In the other approach, scientists employ semi-empirical techniques using historical geological data to determine likely sea level responses to a warming world, in addition to some basic physical modeling. These semi-empirical sea level models rely on statistical techniques, using relationships between observed past contributions to global mean sea level and global mean temperature. This type of modeling was partially motivated by most physical models in previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) literature assessments having underestimated the amount of sea level rise compared to observations of the 20th century.
Projections for the 21st century: Historical sea level reconstruction and projections up to 2100 published in 2017 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program.[35] RCPs are different scenarios for future concentrations of greenhouse gases. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides multiple plausible scenarios of 21st century sea level rise in each report, starting from the IPCC First Assessment Report in 1990. The differences between scenarios are primarily due to the uncertainty about future greenhouse gas emissions, which are subject to hard to predict political action, as well as economic developments. The scenarios used in the 2013-2014 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) were called Representative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs. An estimate for sea level rise is given with each RCP, presented as a range with a lower and upper limit, to reflect the unknowns. The RCP2.6 pathway would see GHG emissions kept low enough to meet the Paris climate agreement goal of limiting warming by 2100 to 2 °C. Estimated SLR by 2100 for RCP2.6 was about 44 cm (the range given was as 28–61 cm). For RCP8.5 the sea level would rise between 52 and 98 cm (20+1⁄2 and 38+1⁄2 in). A set of older estimates of sea level rise. Sources showed a wide range of estimates
Sea level rise projections for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100
The report did not estimate the possibility of global SLR being accelerated by the outright collapse of the marine-based parts of the Antarctic ice sheet, due to the lack of reliable information, only stating with medium confidence that if such a collapse occurred, it would not add more than several tens of centimeters to 21st century sea level rise. Since its publication, multiple papers have questioned this decision and presented higher estimates of SLR after attempting to better incorporate ice sheet processes in Antarctica and Greenland and to compare the current events with the paleoclimate data. For instance, a 2017 study from the University of Melbourne researchers estimated that ice sheet processes would increase AR5 sea level rise estimate for the low emission scenario by about one quarter, but they would add nearly half under the moderate scenario and practically double estimated sea level rise under the high emission scenario. The 2017 Fourth United States National Climate Assessment presented estimates comparable to the IPCC for the low emission scenarios, yet found that the SLR of up to 2.4 m (10 ft) by 2100 relative to 2000 is physically possible if the high emission scenario triggers Antarctic ice sheet instability, greatly increasing the 130 cm (5 ft) estimate for the same scenario but without instability. A 2016 study led by Jim Hansen presented a hypothesis of vulnerable ice sheet collapse leading to near-term exponential sea level rise acceleration, with a doubling time of 10, 20 or 40 years, thus leading to multi-meter sea level rise in 50, 100 or 200 years, respectively. However, it remains a minority view amongst the scientific community. For comparison, two expert elicitation papers were published in 2019 and 2020, both looking at low and high emission scenarios. The former combined the projections of 22 ice sheet experts to estimate the median SLR of 30 cm (12 in) by 2050 and 70 cm (27+1⁄2 in) by 2100 in the low emission scenario and the median of 34 cm (13+1⁄2 in) by 2050 and 110 cm (43+1⁄2 in) by 2100 in a high emission scenario. They also estimated a small chance of sea levels exceeding 1 meter by 2100 even in the low emission scenario and of going beyond 2 meters in the high emission scenario, with the latter causing the displacement of 187 million people. The other paper surveyed 106 experts, who had estimated a median of 45 cm (17+1⁄2 in) by 2100 for RCP2.6, with a 5%-95% range of 21–82 cm (8+1⁄2–32+1⁄2 in). For RCP8.5, the experts estimated a median of 93 cm (36+1⁄2 in) by 2100, with a 5%-95% range of 45–165 cm (17+1⁄2–65 in). By 2020, the observed ice-sheet losses in Greenland and Antarctica were found to track the upper-end range of the AR5 projections. Consequently, the updated SLR projections in the 2019 IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate were somewhat larger than in AR5, and they were far more plausible when compared to an extrapolation of observed sea level rise trends. The main set of sea level rise projections used in IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) was ultimately only slightly larger than the one in SROCC, with SSP1-2.6 resulting in a 17-83% range of 32–62 cm (12+1⁄2–24+1⁄2 in) by 2100, SSP2-4.5 resulting in a 44–76 cm (17+1⁄2–30 in) range by 2100 and SSP5-8.5 leading to 65–101 cm (25+1⁄2–40 in). The report also provided extended projections on both the lower and the upper end, adding SSP1-1.9 scenario which represents meeting the 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) goal and has the likely range of 28–55 cm (11–21+1⁄2 in), as well as "low-confidence" narrative involving processes like marine ice sheet and marine ice cliff instability under SSP5-8.5. For that scenario, it cautioned that the sea level rise of over 2 m (6+1⁄2 ft) by 2100 "cannot be ruled out".[7] And as of 2022, NOAA suggests 50% probability of 0.5 m (19+1⁄2 in) sea level rise by 2100 under 2 °C (3.6 °F), increasing to >80% to >99% under 3–5 °C (5.4–9.0 °F)." If countries cut greenhouse gas emissions significantly (lowest trace), the IPCC expects sea level rise by 2100 to be limited to 0.3 to 0.6 meters (1–2 feet).However, in a worst case scenario (top trace), sea levels could rise 5 meters (16 feet) by the year 2300. A map showing major SLR impact in south-east Asia, Northern Europe and the East Coast of the US
Map of the Earth with a long-term 6-metre (20 ft) sea level rise represented in red (uniform distribution, actual sea level rise will vary regionally and local adaptation measures will also have an effect on local sea levels). Models consistent with paleo records of sea level rise: 1189 indicate that substantial long-term SLR will continue for centuries even if the temperature stabilizes. After 500 years, sea level rise from thermal expansion alone may have reached only half of its eventual level, which models suggest may lie within ranges of 0.5–2 m (1+1⁄2–6+1⁄2 ft).[51] Additionally, tipping points of Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are expected to play a larger role over such timescales, with very long-term SLR likely to be dominated by ice loss from Antarctica, especially if the warming exceeds 2 °C (3.6 °F). Continued carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel sources could cause additional tens of metres of sea level rise, over the next millennia. The available fossil fuel on Earth is enough to ultimately melt the entire Antarctic ice sheet, causing about 58 m (190 ft) of sea level rise. In the next 2,000 years the sea level is predicted to rise by 2–3 m (6+1⁄2–10 ft) if the temperature rise peaks at its current 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), by 2–6 m (6+1⁄2–19+1⁄2 ft) if it peaks at 2 °C (3.6 °F) and by 19–22 m (62+1⁄2–72 ft) if it peaks at 5 °C (9.0 °F).[6]: SPM-28 If temperature rise stops at 2 °C (3.6 °F) or at 5 °C (9.0 °F), the sea level would still continue to rise for about 10,000 years. In the first case it will reach 8–13 m (26–42+1⁄2 ft) above pre-industrial level, and in the second 28–37 m (92–121+1⁄2 ft). As both the models and observational records have improved, a range of studies has attempted to project SLR for the centuries immediately after 2100, which remains largely speculative. For instance, when the April 2019 expert elicitation asked its 22 experts about total sea level rise projections for the years 2200 and 2300 under its high, 5 °C warming scenario, it ended up with 90% confidence intervals of −10 cm (4 in) to 740 cm (24+1⁄2 ft) and −9 cm (3+1⁄2 in) to 970 cm (32 ft), respectively (negative values represent the extremely low probability of very large increases in the ice sheet surface mass balance due to climate change-induced increase in precipitation ). The elicitation of 106 experts led by Stefan Rahmstorf had also included 2300 for RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5: the former had the median of 118 cm (46+1⁄2 in), a 17%-83% range of 54–215 cm (21+1⁄2–84+1⁄2 in) and a 5%-95% range of 24–311 cm (9+1⁄2–122+1⁄2 in), while the latter had the median of 329 cm (129+1⁄2 in), a 17%-83% range of 167–561 cm (65+1⁄2–221 in) and a 5%-95% range of 88–783 cm (34+1⁄2–308+1⁄2 in). By 2021, AR6 was also able to provide estimates for year 2150 SLR alongside the 2100 estimates for the first time. According to it, keeping warming at 1.5 °C under the SSP1-1.9 scenario would result in sea level rise in the 17-83% range of 37–86 cm (14+1⁄2–34 in), SSP1-2.6 a range of 46–99 cm (18–39 in), SSP2-4.5 of 66–133 cm (26–52+1⁄2 in) range by 2100 and SSP5-8.5 leading to 98–188 cm (38+1⁄2–74 in). Moreover, it stated that if the "low-confidence" could result in over 2 m (6+1⁄2 ft) by 2100, it would then accelerate further to potentially approach 5 m (16+1⁄2 ft) by 2150. The report provided lower-confidence estimates for year 2300 sea level rise under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 as well: the former had a range between 0.5 m (1+1⁄2 ft) and 3.2 m (10+1⁄2 ft), while the latter ranged from just under 2 m (6+1⁄2 ft) to just under 7 m (23 ft). Finally, the version of SSP5-8.5 involving low-confidence processes has a chance of exceeding 15 m (49 ft) by then. In 2018, it was estimated that for every 5 years CO2 emissions are allowed to increase before finally peaking, the median 2300 SLR increases by the median of 20 cm (8 in), with a 5% likelihood of 1 m (3+1⁄2 ft) increase due to the same. The same estimate found that if the temperature stabilized below 2 °C (3.6 °F), 2300 sea level rise would still exceed 1.5 m (5 ft), while the early net zero and slowly falling temperatures could limit it to 70–120 cm (27+1⁄2–47 in). Measurements: Sea level changes can be driven by variations in the amount of water in the oceans, by changes in the volume of that water, or by varying land elevation compared to the sea surface. Over a consistent time period, assessments can source contributions to sea level rise and provide early indications of change in trajectory, which helps to inform adaptation plans. The different techniques used to measure changes in sea level do not measure exactly the same level. Tide gauges can only measure relative sea level, whilst satellites can also measure absolute sea level changes. To get precise measurements for sea level, researchers studying the ice and the oceans on our planet factor in ongoing deformations of the solid Earth, in particular due to landmasses still rising from past ice masses retreating, and also the Earth's gravity and rotation. Satellites: Jason-1 continued the sea surface measurements started by TOPEX/Poseidon. It was followed by the Ocean Surface Topography Mission on Jason-2, and by Jason-3. Since the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon in 1992, an overlapping series of altimetric satellites has been continuously recording the sea level and its changes. Those satellites can measure the hills and valleys in the sea caused by currents and detect trends in their height. To measure the distance to the sea surface, the satellites send a microwave pulse towards Earth and record the time it takes to return after reflecting off the ocean's surface. Microwave radiometers measure and correct the additional delay caused by water vapor in the atmosphere. Combining these data with the precisely known location of the spacecraft determines the sea-surface height to within a few centimetres (about one inch).[59] Rates of sea level rise for the period 1993–2017 have been estimated from satellite altimetry to be 3.0 ± 0.4 millimetres (1⁄8 ± 1⁄64 in) per year. Satellites are useful for measuring regional variations in sea level, such as the substantial rise between 1993 and 2012 in the western tropical Pacific. This sharp rise has been linked to increasing trade winds, which occur when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) change from one state to the other.[61] The PDO is a basin-wide climate pattern consisting of two phases, each commonly lasting 10 to 30 years, while the ENSO has a shorter period of 2 to 7 years.Tide gauges: Between 1993 and 2018, the mean sea level has risen across most of the world ocean (blue colors). The global network of tide gauges is another important source of sea-level observations. Compared to the satellite record, this record has major spatial gaps but covers a much longer period of time. Coverage of tide gauges started primarily in the Northern Hemisphere, with data for the Southern Hemisphere remaining scarce up to the 1970s. The longest running sea-level measurements, NAP or Amsterdam Ordnance Datum established in 1675, are recorded in Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Australia, record collection is also quite extensive, including measurements by an amateur meteorologist beginning in 1837 and measurements taken from a sea-level benchmark struck on a small cliff on the Isle of the Dead near the Port Arthur convict settlement in 1841. This network was used, in combination with satellite altimeter data, to establish that global mean sea-level rose 19.5 cm (7.7 in) between 1870 and 2004 at an average rate of about 1.44 mm/yr (1.7 mm/yr during the 20th century). By 2018, data collected by Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) had shown that the global mean sea level was rising by 3.2 mm (1⁄8 in) per year, at double the average 20th century rate,[68][69] while the 2023 World Meteorological Organization report found further acceleration to 4.62 mm/yr over the 2013–2022 period.[3] Thus, these observations help to check and verify predictions from climate change simulations. Regional differences are also visible in the tide gauge data. Some are caused by the local sea level differences, while others are due to vertical land movements. In Europe for instance, only some land areas are rising while the others are sinking. Since 1970, most tidal stations have measured higher seas, but sea levels along the northern Baltic Sea have dropped due to post-glacial rebound. Past sea level rise: Changes in sea levels since the end of the last glacial episode. An understanding of past sea level is an important guide to where current changes in sea level will end up once these processes conclude. In the recent geological past, thermal expansion from increased temperatures and changes in land ice are the dominant reasons of sea level rise. The last time that the Earth was 2 °C (3.6 °F) warmer than pre-industrial temperatures was 120,000 years ago, when warming due to Milankovitch cycles (changes in the amount of sunlight due to slow changes in the Earth's orbit) caused the Eemian interglacial; sea levels during that warmer interglacial were at least 5 m (16 ft) higher than now. The Eemian warming was sustained over a period of thousands of years, and the magnitude of the rise in sea level implies a large contribution from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets: 1139 According to Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide similar to today's ultimately increased temperature by over 2–3 °C (3.6–5.4 °F) around three million years ago. This temperature increase eventually melted one third of Antarctica's ice sheet, causing sea levels to rise 20 meters above the present values. Since the Last Glacial Maximum, about 20,000 years ago, sea level has risen by more than 125 metres (410 ft), with rates varying from less than 1 mm/year during the pre-industrial era to 40+ mm/year when major ice sheets over Canada and Eurasia melted. meltwater pulses are periods of fast sea level rise caused by the rapid disintegration of these ice sheets. The rate of sea level rise started to slow down about 8,200 years before present; sea level was almost constant for the last 2,500 years. The recent trend of rising sea level started at the end of the 19th century or at the beginning of the 20th.
Causes: A graph showing ice loss sea ice, ice shelves and land ice. Land ice loss contributetes to SLR. Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017: ice sheets and glaciers raised the global sea level by 34.6 ± 3.1 mm. The rate of ice loss has risen by 57% since the 1990s−from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes per year. The three main reasons warming causes global sea level to rise are the expansion of oceans due to heating, along with water inflow from melting ice sheets and glaciers. Sea level rise since the start of the 20th century has been dominated by retreat of glaciers and expansion of the ocean, but the contributions of the two large ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) are expected to increase in the 21st century. The ice sheets store most of the land ice (~99.5%), with a sea-level equivalent (SLE) of 7.4 m (24 ft 3 in) for Greenland and 58.3 m (191 ft 3 in) for Antarctica. Each year about 8 mm (5⁄16 in) of precipitation (liquid equivalent) falls on the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland, mostly as snow, which accumulates and over time forms glacial ice. Much of this precipitation began as water vapor evaporated from the ocean surface. Some of the snow is blown away by wind or disappears from the ice sheet by melt or by sublimation (directly changing into water vapor). The rest of the snow slowly changes into ice. This ice can flow to the edges of the ice sheet and return to the ocean by melting at the edge or in the form of icebergs. If precipitation, surface processes and ice loss at the edge balance each other, sea level remains the same. However scientists have found that ice is being lost, and at an accelerating rate. Ocean heating: There has been an increase in ocean heat content during recent decades as the oceans absorb most of the excess heat created by human-induced global warming. The oceans store more than 90% of the extra heat added to Earth's climate system by climate change and act as a buffer against its effects. The amount of heat needed to increase average temperature of the entire world ocean by 0.01 °C (0.018 °F) would increase atmospheric temperature by approximately 10 °C (18 °F): a small change in the mean temperature of the ocean represents a very large change in the total heat content of the climate system. When the ocean gains heat, the water expands and sea level rises. The amount of expansion varies with both water temperature and pressure. For each degree, warmer water and water under great pressure (due to depth) expand more than cooler water and water under less pressure : 1161 Consequently cold Arctic Ocean water will expand less than warm tropical water. Because different climate models present slightly different patterns of ocean heating, their predictions do not agree fully on the contribution of ocean heating to SLR. Heat gets transported into deeper parts of the ocean by winds and currents, and some of it reaches depths of more than 2,000 m (6,600 ft). Antarctic ice loss: The large volume of ice on the Antarctic continent stores around 70% of the world's fresh water. There is constant ice discharge along the periphery, yet also constant accumulation of snow atop the ice sheet: together, these processes form Antarctic ice sheet mass balance. Warming increases melting at the base of the ice sheet, but it is likely to increase snowfall, helping offset the periphery melt even if greater weight on the surface also accelerates ice flow into the ocean. While snowfall increased over the last two centuries, no increase was found in the interior of Antarctica over the last four decades. Further, sea ice, particularly in the form of ice shelves, blocks warmer waters around the continent from coming into direct contact with the ice sheet, so any loss of ice shelves substantially increases melt raises and instability. The Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica's largest, is about the size of France and up to several hundred metres thick. Different satellite methods for measuring ice mass and change are in good agreement, and combining methods leads to more certainty about how the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and the Antarctic Peninsula evolve. A 2018 systematic review study estimated that the average annual ice loss across the entire continent was 43 gigatons (Gt) during the period from 1992 to 2002, acceletating to an annual average of 220 Gt from 2012 to 2017.[85] The sea level rise due to Antarctica has been estimated to be 0.25 mm per year from 1993 to 2005, and 0.42 mm per year from 2005 to 2015, although there are significant year-to-year variations. In 2021, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) was projected to reduce all land ice contribution to sea level rise by 2100 from 25 cm to 13 cm (from 10 to 6 in.) compared to current mitigation pledges, with mountain glaciers responsible for half the sea level rise contribution,[86] and the fate of Antarctica the source of the largest uncertainty.[86] By 2019, several studies have attempted to estimate 2300 sea level rise caused by ice loss in Antarctica alone: they suggest 16 cm (6+1⁄2 in) median and 37 cm (14+1⁄2 in) maximum values under the low-emission scenario but a median of 1.46 m (5 ft) metres (with a minimum of 60 cm (2 ft) and a maximum of 2.89 m (9+1⁄2 ft)) under the highest-emission scenario. East Antarctica: The world's largest potential source of sea level rise is the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS). It holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 53.3 m (174 ft 10 in)[87] Historically, it was less studied than the West Antarctica as it had been considered relatively stable, an impression that was backed up by satellite observations and modelling of its surface mass balance. However, a 2019 study employed different methodology and concluded that East Antarctica is already losing ice mass overall. All methods agree that the Totten Glacier has lost ice in recent decades in response to ocean warming and possibly a reduction in local sea ice cover. Totten Glacier is the primary outlet of the Aurora Subglacial Basin, a major ice reservoir in East Antarctica that could rapidly retreat due to hydrological processes. The global sea level potential of 3.5 m (11 ft 6 in) flowing through Totten Glacier alone is of similar magnitude to the entire probable contribution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The other major ice reservoir on East Antarctica that might rapidly retreat is the Wilkes Basin which is subject to marine ice sheet instability. Ice loss from these outlet glaciers is possibly compensated by accumulation gains in other parts of Antarctica. In 2022, it was estimated that the Wilkes Basin, Aurora Basin and other nearby subglacial basins are likely to have a collective tipping point around 3 °C (5.4 °F) of global warming, although it may be as high as 6 °C (11 °F), or as low as 2 °C (3.6 °F). Once this tipping point is crossed, the collapse of these subglacial basins could take place as little as 500 or as much as 10,000 years: the median timeline is 2000 years. On the other hand, the entirety of the EAIS would not be committed to collapse until global warming reaches 7.5 °C (13.5 °F) (range between 5 °C (9.0 °F) and 10 °C (18 °F)), and would take at least 10,000 years to disappear.[92][93] It is also suggested that the loss of two-thirds of its volume may require at least 6 °C (11 °F) of warming. West Antarctica: Even though East Antarctica contains the largest potential source of sea level rise, West Antarctica ice sheet (WAIS) is substantially more vulnerable. In contrast to East Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, temperatures on West Antarctica have increased significantly with a trend between 0.08 °C (0.14 °F) per decade and 0.96 °C (1.73 °F) per decade between 1976 and 2012. Consequently, satellite observations recorded a substantial increase in WAIS melting from 1992 to 2017, resulting in 7.6 ± 3.9 mm (19⁄64 ± 5⁄32 in) of Antarctica sea level rise, with a disproportionate role played by outflow glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. In 2021, AR6 estimated that while the median increase in sea level rise from the West Antarctic ice sheet melt by 2100 is ~11 cm (5 in) under all emission scenarios (since the increased warming would intensify the water cycle and increase snowfall accumulation over the ice sheet at about the same rate as it would increase ice loss), it can conceivably contribute as much as 41 cm (16 in) by 2100 under the low-emission scenario and 57 cm (22 in) under the highest-emission one. This is because WAIS is vulnerable to several types of instability whose role remains difficult to model. These include hydrofracturing (meltwater collecting atop the ice sheet pools into fractures and forces them open), increased contact of warm ocean water with ice shelves due to climate-change induced ocean circulation changes, marine ice sheet instability (warm water entering between the seafloor and the base of the ice sheet once it is no longer heavy enough to displace the flow, causing accelerated melting and collapse) and even marine ice cliff instability (ice cliffs with heights greater than 100 m (330 ft) collapsing under their own weight once they are no longer buttressed by ice shelves). These processes do not have equal influence and are not all equally likely to happen: for instance, marine ice cliff instability has never been observed and was ruled out by some of the more detailed modelling. Thwaites Glacier, with its vulnerable bedrock topography visible.
The Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers are considered the most prone to ice sheet instability processes. Both glaciers' bedrock topography gets deeper farther inland, exposing them to more warm water intrusion into the grounding zone. Their contribution to global sea levels has already accelerated since the beginning of the 21st century, with the Thwaites Glacier now amounting to 4% of the global sea level rise. At the end of 2021, it was estimated that the Thwaites Ice Shelf can collapse in three to five years, which would then make the destabilization of the entire Thwaites glacier inevitable. The Thwaites glacier itself will cause a rise of sea level by 65 cm (25+1⁄2 in) if it will completely collapse,[107][102] although this process is estimated to unfold over several centuries. Since most of the bedrock underlying the West Antarctic Ice Sheet lies well below sea level, it is currently buttressed by Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers, meaning that their loss would likely destabilize the entire ice sheet.[38][108] This possibility was first proposed back in the 1970s,[37] when a 1978 study predicted that anthropogenic CO2 emissions doubling by 2050 would cause 5 m (15 ft) of SLR from the rapid WAIS loss alone. Since then, improved modelling concluded that the ice within WAIS would raise the sea level by 3.3 m (10 ft 10 in). In 2022, the collapse of the entire West Antarctica was estimated to unfold over a period of about 2000 years, with the absolute minimum of 500 years (and a potential maximum of 13,000 years). At the same time, this collapse was considered likely to be triggered at around 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) of global warming and would become unavoidable at 3 °C (5.4 °F). At worst, it may have even been triggered already: subsequent (2023) research had made that possibility more likely, suggesting that the temperatures in the Amundsen Sea are likely to increase at triple the historical rate even with low or "medium" atmospheric warming and even faster with high warming. Without unexpected strong negative feedbacks emerging, the collapse of the ice sheet would become inevitable. While it would take a very long time from start to end for the ice sheet to disappear, it has been suggested that the only way to stop it once triggered is by lowering the global temperature to 1 °C (1.8 °F) below the preindustrial level; i.e. 2 °C (3.6 °F) below the temperature of 2020. Other researchers suggested that a climate engineering intervention aiming to stabilize the ice sheet's glaciers may delay its loss by centuries and give more time to adapt, although it's an uncertain proposal, and would necessarily end up as one of the most expensive projects ever attempted by humanity. Greenland ice sheet loss: Greenland 2007 melt, measured as the difference between the number of days on which melting occurred in 2007 compared to the average annual melting days from 1988 to 2006. Most ice on Greenland is part of the Greenland ice sheet which is 3 km (10,000 ft) at its thickest. Other Greenland ice forms isolated glaciers and ice caps. The sources contributing to sea level rise from Greenland are from ice sheet melting (70%) and from glacier calving (30%). Average annual ice loss in Greenland more than doubled in the early 21st century compared to the 20th century,[117] and there was a corresponding increase in SLR contribution from 0.07 mm per year between 1992 and 1997 to 0.68 mm per year between 2012 and 2017. Total ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet between 1992 and 2018 amounted to 3,902 gigatons (Gt) of ice, which is equivalent to the SLR of 10.8 mm.[118] The contribution for the 2012–2016 period was equivalent to 37% of sea level rise from land ice sources (excluding thermal expansion).[119] This rate of ice sheet melting is also associated with the higher end of predictions from the past IPCC assessment reports. In 2021, AR6 estimated that under the SSP1-2.6 emission scenario which largely fulfils the Paris Agreement goals, Greenland ice sheet melt adds around 6 cm (2+1⁄2 in) to global sea level rise by the end of the century, with a plausible maximum of 15 cm (6 in) (and even a very small chance of the ice sheet reducing the sea levels by around 2 cm (1 in) due to gaining mass through surface mass balance feedback). The scenario associated with the highest global warming, SSP5-8.5, would see Greenland add a minimum of 5 cm (2 in) to sea level rise, a likely median of 13 cm (5 in) cm and a plausible maximum of 23 cm (9 in). Certain parts of the Greenland ice sheet are already known to be committed to unstoppable sea level rise. Greenland's peripheral glaciers and ice caps crossed an irreversible tipping point around 1997, and will continue to melt. A subsequent study had found that the climate of the past 20 years (2000–2019) would already result of the loss of ~3.3% volume in this manner in the future, committing the ice sheet to an eventual 27 cm (10+1⁄2 in) of SLR, independent of any future temperature change.[126] There is also a global warming threshold beyond which a near-complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet occurs. Earlier research has put this threshold value as low as 1 °C (1.8 °F), and definitely no higher than 4 °C (7.2 °F) above pre-industrial temperatures.[128][26]: 1170 A 2021 analysis of sub-glacial sediment at the bottom of a 1.4 km Greenland ice core finds that the Greenland ice sheet melted away at least once during the last million years, even though the temperatures have never been higher than 2.5 °C (4.5 °F) greater than today over that period.[129][130] In 2022, it was estimated that the tipping point of the Greenland Ice Sheet may have been as low as 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) and is certainly no higher than 3 °C (5.4 °F) : there is a high chance that it will be crossed around 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). Once crossed, it would take between 1000 and 15,000 years for the ice sheet to disintegrate entirely, with the most likely estimate of 10,000 years. Mountain glacier loss: Based on national pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, global mean temperature is projected to increase by 2.7 °C (4.9 °F), which would cause loss of about half of Earth's glaciers by 2100—causing a sea level rise of 115±40 millimeters. There are roughly 200,000 glaciers on Earth, which are spread out across all continents. Less than 1% of glacier ice is in mountain glaciers, compared to 99% in Greenland and Antarctica. However, this small size also makes mountain glaciers more vulnerable to melting than the larger ice sheets. This means they have had a disproportionate contribution to historical sea level rise and are set to contribute a smaller, but still significant fraction of sea level rise in the 21st century. Observational and modelling studies of mass loss from glaciers and ice caps indicate a contribution to sea level rise of 0.2-0.4 mm per year, averaged over the 20th century. The contribution for the 2012–2016 period was nearly as large as that of Greenland: 0.63 mm of sea level rise per year, equivalent to 34% of sea level rise from land ice sources. Glaciers contributed around 40% to sea level rise during the 20th century, with estimates for the 21st century of around 30%.[4] The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report estimated that glaciers contributing 7–24 cm (3–9+1⁄2 in) to global sea levels: 1165 . In 2023, a Science paper estimated that at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), one quarter of mountain glacier mass would be lost by 2100 and nearly half would be lost at 4 °C (7.2 °F), contributing ~9 cm (3+1⁄2 in) and ~15 cm (6 in) to sea level rise, respectively. Because glacier mass is disproportionately concentrated in the most resilient glaciers, this would in practice remove between 49% and 83% of glacier formations. It had further estimated that the current likely trajectory of 2.7 °C (4.9 °F) would result in the SLR contribution of ~11 cm (4+1⁄2 in) by 2100. Mountain glaciers are even more vulnerable over the longer term. In 2022, another Science paper estimated that almost no mountain glaciers can be expected to survive once the warming crosses 2 °C (3.6 °F), and their complete loss largely inevitable around 3 °C (5.4 °F): there is even a possibility of complete loss after 2100 at just 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). This could happen as early as 50 years after the tipping point is crossed, although 200 years is the most likely value, and the maximum is around 1000 years. Sea ice loss: Sea ice loss contributes very slightly to global sea level rise. If the melt water from ice floating in the sea was exactly the same as sea water then, according to Archimedes' principle, no rise would occur. However melted sea ice contains less dissolved salt than sea water and is therefore less dense, with a slightly greater volume per unit of mass. If all floating ice shelves and icebergs were to melt sea level would only rise by about 4 cm (1+1⁄2 in). Changes to land water storage: Human activity impacts how much water is stored on land. Dams retain large quantities of water, which is stored on land rather than flowing into the sea (even though the total quantity stored will vary somewhat from time to time). On the other hand, humans extract water from lakes, wetlands and underground reservoirs for food production, which often causes subsidence. Furthermore, the hydrological cycle is influenced by climate change and deforestation, which can lead to further positive and negative contributions to sea level rise. In the 20th century, these processes roughly balanced, but dam building has slowed down and is expected to stay low for the 21st century: 1155 . Water redistribution caused by irrigation from 1993 to 2010 caused a drift of Earth's rotational pole by 78.48 centimetres (30.90 in), causing an amount of groundwater depletion equivalent to a global sea level rise of 6.24 millimetres (0.246 in). Impacts: High tide flooding, also called tidal flooding, has become much more common in the past seven decades.[ The impacts of sea level rise include higher and more frequent high-tide and storm-surge flooding, increased coastal erosion, inhibition of primary production processes, more extensive coastal inundation, along with changes in surface water quality and groundwater. These can lead to a greater loss of property and coastal habitats, loss of life during floods and loss of cultural resources. Agriculture and aquaculture can also be impacted. There can also be loss of tourism, recreation, and transport related functions.[10]: 356 Coastal flooding impacts are exacerbated by land use changes such as urbanisation or deforestation of low-lying coastal zones. Regions that are already vulnerable to the rising sea level also struggle with coastal flooding washing away land and altering the landscape.
Because the projected extent of sea level rise by 2050 will be only slightly affected by any changes in emissions,[5] there is confidence that 2050 levels of SLR combined with the 2010 population distribution (i.e. absent the effects of population growth and human migration) would result in ~150 million people under the water line during high tide and ~300 million in places which are flooded every year—an increase of 40 and 50 million people relative to 2010 values for the same.[13][141] By 2100, there would be another 40 million people under the water line during high tide if sea level rise remains low, and 80 million for a high estimate of the median sea level rise.[13] If ice sheet processes under the highest emission scenario result in sea level rise of well over one metre (3+1⁄4 ft) by 2100, with a chance of levels over two metres (6+1⁄2 ft),[16][6]: TS-45 then as many as 520 million additional people would end up under the water line during high tide and 640 million in places which are flooded every year, when compared to the 2010 population distribution.
Major cities threatened by sea level rise. The cities indicated are under threat of even a small sea level rise (of 1.6 feet/49 cm) compared to the level in 2010. Even moderate projections indicate that such a rise will have occurred by 2060.[142][143]
Over the longer term, coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels, changes in the frequency and intensity of storms, increased precipitation, and rising ocean temperatures. Ten percent of the world's population live in coastal areas that are less than 10 metres (33 ft) above sea level. Furthermore, two-thirds of the world's cities with over five million people are located in these low-lying coastal areas.[144] In total, approximately 600 million people live directly on the coast around the world.[145] Cities such as Miami, Rio de Janeiro, Osaka and Shanghai will be especially vulnerable later in the century under the warming of 3 °C (5.4 °F), which is close to the current trajectory.[12][36] Altogether, LiDAR-based research had established in 2021 that 267 million people worldwide lived on land less than 2 m (6+1⁄2 ft) above sea level and that with a 1 m (3+1⁄2 ft) sea level rise and zero population growth, that number could increase to 410 million people. Even populations who live further inland may be impacted by a potential disruption of sea trade, and by migrations. In 2023, United Nations secretary general António Guterres warned that sea level rises risk causing human migrations on a "biblical scale". Sea level rise will inevitably affect ports, but the current research into this subject is limited. Not enough is known about the investments required to protect the ports currently in use, and for how they may be protected before it becomes more reasonable to build new port facilities elsewhere. Moreover, some coastal regions are rich agricultural lands, whose loss to the sea can result in food shortages elsewhere. This is a particularly acute issue for river deltas such as Nile Delta in Egypt and Red River and Mekong Deltas in Vietnam, which are disproportionately affected by saltwater intrusion into the soil and irrigation water. Ecosystems:
When seawater reaches inland, coastal plants, birds, and freshwater/estuarine fish are threatened with habitat loss due to flooding and soil/water salinization.[153] So-called ghost forests emerge when coastal forest areas become inundated with saltwater to the point no trees can survive. Starting around 2050, some nesting sites in Florida, Cuba, Ecuador and the island of Sint Eustatius for leatherback, loggerhead, hawksbill, green and olive ridley turtles are expected to be flooded, and the proportion would only increase over time. And in 2016, Bramble Cay islet in the Great Barrier Reef was inundated, flooding the habitat of a rodent named Bramble Cay melomys.[157] In 2019, it was officially declared extinct. While some ecosystems can move land inward with the high-water mark, many are prevented from migrating due to natural or artificial barriers. This coastal narrowing, sometimes called 'coastal squeeze' when considering human-made barriers, could result in the loss of habitats such as mudflats and tidal marshes. Mangrove ecosystems on the mudflats of tropical coasts nurture high biodiversity, yet they are particularly vulnerable due to mangrove plants' reliance on breathing roots or pneumatophores, which might grow to be half a metre tall.[ While mangroves can adjust to rising sea levels by migrating inland and building vertically using accumulated sediment and organic matter, they will be submerged if the rate is too rapid, resulting in the loss of an ecosystem. Both mangroves and tidal marshes protect against storm surges, waves and tsunamis, so their loss makes the effects of sea level rise worse. Human activities, such as dam building, may restrict sediment supplies to wetlands, and thereby prevent natural adaptation processes. The loss of some tidal marshes is unavoidable as a consequence. Likewise, corals, important for bird and fish life, need to grow vertically to remain close to the sea surface in order to get enough energy from sunlight. The corals have so far been able to keep up the vertical growth with the rising seas, but might not be able to do so in the future.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_drop
Tidal range is the difference in height between high tide and low tide. Tides are the rise and fall of sea levels caused by gravitational forces exerted by the Moon and Sun, by Earth's rotation and by centrifugal force caused by Earth's progression around the Earth-Moon barycenter. Tidal range depends on time and location. Larger tidal range occur during spring tides (spring range), when the gravitational forces of both the Moon and Sun are aligned (at syzygy), reinforcing each other in the same direction (new moon) or in opposite directions (full moon). The largest annual tidal range can be expected around the time of the equinox if it coincides with a spring tide. Spring tides occur at the second and fourth (last) quarters of the lunar phases. By contrast, during neap tides, when the Moon and Sun's gravitational force vectors act in quadrature (making a right angle to the Earth's orbit), the difference between high and low tides (neap range) is smallest. Neap tides occur at the first and third quarters of the lunar phases. Tidal data for coastal areas is published by national hydrographic offices. The data is based on astronomical phenomena and is predictable. Sustained storm-force winds blowing from one direction combined with low barometric pressure can increase the tidal range, particularly in narrow bays. Such weather-related effects on the tide can cause ranges in excess of predicted values and can cause localized flooding. These weather-related effects are not calculable in advance. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_range
Carbon-14 has a probability of 5,730 days until one of it's extra neutrons spontaneously ejects an electron and an electron antineutrino and converts to a proton, thereby becoming Nitrogen-14.
As we individuate and draw little lines between me and not-me, we create our ego's -- our "I". It is naturally how we experience the world.
Until one day those little dividing lines don't work for us anymore and the painful process begins of giving up hope, the glue that holds our mental constructs together.
The soul's half life is 40 days -- a metaphor for "as long as it takes" -- to transform the cracks in it's identity and enlarge to include the more expansive lines between me and not-me.
Timelapse of last night's sunset. At least there were some clouds this time! I'm testing out this new service called Skyfire (part of The Photographer's Ephemeris iOS app) that tries to predict if there will be a colorful sunrise or sunset based on weather information about type and height of clouds. They claim a pretty high level of accuracy, but its hard for me to asses because like any weather app, it deals in probabilities. The first two days I used it it said 0% chance of a nice sunset and it was right - the sky was completely empty with no clouds at sunset. But for last night, it said 35% chance of a colorful sunset, and there was a colorful sunset - so is that a success or a failure? I guess its neither, you need to run a lot more data points to tell. Anyway, its an interesting idea, and I'll probably keep using it. I've been trying to do the same thing myself by looking at the satellite imagery of clouds, so even though their algorithm can't be perfect, it is probably at least better than what I can guess on my own.
These frames were taken with my Sony Nex 5T and put together into a video using the application Zeitraffer.
Many people think that the best time to see the aurora borealis is in the winter. But it's actually not true. The period surrounding the fall and spring equinoxes gives the best probability. One advantage to going in the fall is that you have a lot more open water surfaces for reflections. Another plus is that temperatures aren't too cold. Here's a shot from our Oct trip to Alaska. What a great night!!
Lanius ludovicianus,
Carrizo Plain National Monument,
Eastern San Luis Obispo Co., California
Note that this is a fairly early record for a fledgling. In the Atlas of the Breeding Birds of Monterey County, California (1995)--our adjacent county to the north--the earliest fledgling recorded was on 16 April. Note too that they suggest that the span of fledgling dates suggests the probability of multiple broods.
Felicia Hardy is a metahuman thief known as the Black Cat who has sometimes been an enemy, love interest, and ally of the superhero Spider-Man.
Felicia Hardy is the daughter of Walter Hardy, a world-renowned cat burglar. After suffering from a traumatic assault by an ex-boyfriend as a college freshman, she trained herself in various fighting styles and acrobatics and, after deciding to follow in her father's footsteps, adopted the costumed identity of the Black Cat.
She has the subconscious ability to affect probability fields, producing "bad luck" for her enemies.
Because of her choice to pursue criminal activities, Black Cat began as an adversary of Spider-Man, but over time the two fell in love, which motivated her into becoming both an antiheroine, and his partner.
However, their relationship grew complicated after it became apparent that Black Cat was only attracted to the alter ego of Spider-Man and had little interest in the hero's civilian life as Peter Parker.
After their break-up, Black Cat maintained her role as one of Spider-Man's most trusted allies and for years the pair have remained flirtatious.
Felicia Hardy was born in Queens, New York. Her father Walter pretended to be a traveling salesman but was a world-renowned cat burglar who, before his arrest, encouraged her to never settle for second best. For example, if she loved basketball, she should work to become a basketball player and not just a cheerleader.
As a freshman at Empire State University, Felicia was assaulted by her boyfriend Ryan. Hating the idea of being a victim, she trained herself in various fighting styles and acrobatics, intent on killing him.
Finally, after months of preparing, she set out for revenge, but before she could find him, Ryan was killed in a drunk driving accident. Furious that she was denied the chance for revenge, Hardy decided to utilize her new skills to follow in her father's footsteps. After amassing a fortune in stolen items, Felicia adopted her costumed identity.
She first donned the Black Cat costume in order to break her father out of prison. On the same night, she met Spider-Man. Her father died, and Felicia then faked her own death.
Felicia immediately felt a kinship with the lone hero Spider-Man. He was the first man she felt she could trust and she grew to believe herself in love with him.
Felicia looked for a way to earn his trust and continued with the Black Cat persona as a misguided attempt to attract his affection. Seeing the good in Felicia, Spider-Man made every attempt to have her criminal record expunged.
Felicia was placed in a mental institution but escaped. She joined forces with Spider-Man against the Maggia. She was granted conditional amnesty, and again convinced Spider-Man that she had died.
The Black Cat finally finds the opportunity to prove herself after learning the Kingpin controlled an incredibly powerful detonator. The Owl planned to use the weapon to hold New York City hostage. Meanwhile, Doctor Octopus planned to use the weapon to destroy the city altogether.
However, the Black Cat used her abilities to steal the item first and protect it from all parties. She gave the detonator to Spider-Man and became the target of Doctor Octopus' revenge.
Although Spider-Man tore off his mechanical appendages, Octopus was still able to mentally control them and hold the Black Cat still while his men opened fire. Spider-Man barely got her to the hospital in time and, as they operated on the dozens of bullet and knife wounds, Peter realized just how much he cares for Felicia.
After she recovered they began a relationship and soon Peter revealed his identity to her. Felicia had difficulty accepting the fact that Peter is just a man beneath the mask and cannot understand his need for a civilian life. Peter was hurt, but continued the relationship since it was the first time he did not need to hide his life as Spider-Man from someone.
Initially, the "accidents" which seem to befall those who crossed the Black Cat's path were merely well-planned stunts and traps. After her near-death experience, Felicia feared her lack of superpowers would make her a liability to Spider-Man.
She is terrified that his overwhelming need to protect her will eventually get him killed, so Felicia seeks a way to make herself Spider-Man's equal. Felicia is offered an opportunity to undergo the same process that was used to create the Scorpion and the Human Fly.
The Kingpin uses it on the Black Cat as payback for a theft she committed. Scared and ashamed of being empowered by the Kingpin of crime, she keeps her new abilities a secret from Peter. Her 'bad luck' power turns out to be infectious, and begins to jinx Spider-Man, which was exactly the Kingpin's intent.
Feeling a wall of secrets growing between them, Spider-Man breaks up with Felicia. Felicia then begins a "Robin Hood crusade", stealing from the rich to give to the poor.
Peter soon realizes something is amiss with his own luck and enlists the aid of Doctor Strange to remove the "hex" on him. By doing so, he alters the hex's source and changes the Black Cat's powers in the process.
She finds she has heightened strength, agility, balance, vision, and retractable claws. While burglarizing the mercenary known as the Foreigner, Black Cat is attacked by Sabretooth, the Foreigner's hitman; Spider-Man saves her life.
The Black Cat updates her look and her attitude and rekindles her relationship with Spider-Man. She makes peace with his need for a normal life as Peter Parker and stands by him while he is accused of murder as Spider-Man.
Together, they track down the source of the elaborate scheme to frame him and fight the Foreigner. Her apartment is fire-bombed by the Foreigner's hitman Blaze
Peter later discovers their relationship is just a ruse against him, and that she had secretly been in a relationship with The Foreigner. However, despite her anger during her ruse, Felicia begins to fall back onto her desire to love Peter.
Spider-Man comes home to discover Black Cat discussing her plans to ruin his life by framing him for murder, during a telephone-conversation with The Foreigner. Before he can catch her, she escapes. Spider-Man tracks her down to the Foreigner's apartment by attempting to trick Lt. Keating into revealing evidence as Peter Parker.
Peter then intercepts a phone-call on Keating's phone, which turns out to be Felicia, telling Keating to meet her. However this is a part of her plan, as she intentionally lured Spider-Man into finding her at the Foreigner's apartment, causing a fight to ensue between The Foreigner and Spider-Man.
Later she clears Spider-Man of his murder charge. In the end, the Black Cat double-crosses the Foreigner and Spider-Man, detailing her plan and her feelings towards Peter in a letter, also explaining that she has fled to Paris in order to start a new-life. This pushes Peter to find support and a new relationship with Mary Jane Watson.
Years later, the Black Cat returns to America, and goes "shopping" (actually shoplifting) with Dagger. She returns to her original costume, seeks out Peter Parker, and in a chance confrontation with Venom learns that Peter had married Mary Jane Watson.
Angry and jealous, Felicia begins harassing the couple, taunting Peter as by dating his friend Flash Thompson. She physically threatens Mary Jane, confronting her and swearing to ruin their marriage.
After Spider-Man uses a device to remove his superhuman abilities, the Black Cat aids him in finding the device again in order to restore them. In the process, the Black Cat's cat-like abilities are completely erased.
She realizes that she sincerely cares for Thompson, but when she proposes marriage he refuses her, saying that he was only interested in her because she was the ex-girlfriend of his idol, Spider-Man, but is implied that Flash actually cared for her.
The Black Cat later makes up with both Spider-Man and Mary Jane, becoming close friends with them. She subsequently purchases equipment from the Tinkerer to incorporate into her costume in order to compensate for her lost abilities, and occasionally teams up with Spider-Man.
After Spider-Man unmasks himself, the Black Cat is enraged because she felt that they shared a bond over knowing his identity. Though she is dating Thomas Fireheart (a.k.a. Puma), her new romantic interest notes that Felicia may still have some romantic inclinations toward Peter.
The Black Cat joins the new Heroes for Hire during the "Civil War" although Misty Knight believes that Felicia is just there for the money.
⚡ Happy 🎯 Heroclix 💫 Friday! 👽
_____________________________
A year of the shows and performers of the Bijou Planks Theater.
Secret Identity: Felicia Sara Hardy
Publisher: Marvel
First appearance: The Amazing Spider-Man 194 (July 1979)
Created by: Marv Wolfman (writer)
Dave Cockrum (artist)
Keith Pollard (artist)
Elm Tree Branches Glistening in Fresh Snow! Cook's Meadow Elm Tree Sunrise Yosemite National Park Winter Snow Fine Art Photography 45EPIC Dr. Elliot McGucken Fine Art Landscape and Nature Photography!
Greetings mate! I love voyaging forth to Yosemite to contemplate poetry, physics, the golden ratio, and the Tao te Ching! What's your favorite epic poetry reflecting epic landscapes? I recently finished a book titled Epic Poetry for Epic Landscape Photographers:
www.facebook.com/Epic-Poetry-for-Epic-Landscape-Photograp...
Did you know that John Muir, Thoreau, and Emerson all loved epic poetry and poets including Shakespeare, Milton, Homer, and Robert Burns?
I recently finished my fourth book on Light Time Dimension Theory, much of which was inspired by an autumn trip to Zion!
www.facebook.com/lightimedimensiontheory/
Via its simple principle of a fourth expanding dimension, LTD Theory provides a unifying, foundational *physical* model underlying relativity, quantum mechanics, time and all its arrows and asymmetries, and the second law of thermodynamics. The detailed diagrams demonstrate that the great mysteries of quantum mechanical nonlocality, entanglement, and probability naturally arise from the very same principle that fosters relativity alongside light's constant velocity, the equivalence of mass and energy, and time dilation.
Follow me on intsagram!
Join my new 45EPIC fine art landscapes page on facebook!
Fresh snow! More on my golden ratio musings: The Golden Number Ratio Principle: Why the Fibonacci Numbers Exalt Beauty and How to Create PHI Compositions in Art, Design, & Photography facebook.com/goldennumberratio
Best wishes on your epic hero's odyssey!:)
Bryce Canyon National Park Autumn Colors & Winter Snow Fine Art Photography 45EPIC Dr. Elliot McGucken Fine Art Landscape and Nature Photography: Nikon D810
Love shooting with both the Sony A7RII and the Nikon D810! :)
Epic Tunnel View Sunrise with El Capitan, Half Dome, the Merced River, and Bridal Veil Falls from Valley View too!
'USA' 0-6-0 tank 62-111, built in 1956 by Duro Dakovic takes on water in the rain alongside the RMU Durdevik colliery buildings. The ground is saturated from heavy snowfall dumped a couple of weeks previous to this, plus heavy rainfall during the following week. Such conditions provided an ideal opportunity to capture this reflection shot. In all probability you can count on one hand the number of active standard gauge industrial tank locomotives in the world today and this was most likely to be the only working example in Europe on this day, 26 February 2015.
© Gordon Edgar - All rights reserved. Please do not use my images without my explicit permission
An enormous wave breaking over the harbour wall at Newhaven. Oddly enough a bird has crept into the corner of the frame. The number of times that happened on Saturday beggars the law of probability. I'm sure it's a plot ;-)
At that day in late spring, I was hoping to get good light for taking this picture with the Sinar 8x10. When all was mounted and adjusted, the sun went behind the clouds that were forming on a day with a high probability for showers. I had to wait for some time, but then the sun came out and the clouds were already dark and filled with water for the rain to come. So I could make the shot and was happy.
I worked with the Sinar p2 on Velvia 8x10 and did some tilt (Scheimpflug) to get depth of field with the castle in the sharp zone too. The slide was drum scanned with Heidelberg Tango.
Not every photo of writing spiders centred upon conspicuous, decorative webs on the periphery of the floras around the building that I take actually gets published. The more photographs I stocked of the writing spiders, the less fascinated I got about them. The fact that they are the most common species in the surrounding contributed to my gradual disenchantment towards them. The maxim 'familiarity breeds contempt' proves true for all animate things and inanimate alike. We tend to take things and people for granted after we get accustomed to them. There is often a misconception that we already know everything there is to know about them, and that is when the disinterest sets in.
No matter how rampant they are, the probability of spotting a writing spider on a completed web is however low; average of one per month. The effort and time the fairly small spiders put into the development of their wonder web might give account to the statistic. And this causes them to be perceived to be as scarce as the smaller camouflaging crab spiders and lowlight-hunting lynx spiders resident in the common habitat.
I was eager to show off the first writing spider. It was an exciting find. I had never seen a web as decorated before. The following observation which was slightly different in colouring was also shared, in sequence to the first. Subsequent sightings in the environment were no different from the originals. I am inclined to ignore new observations if there are no peculiar features found on them. Others I do not completely ignore, I use to warm my camera by exploring new perspectives and practising better focus. Good images taken are retained for a while in my device or camera memory. They get reviewed regularly. Some get deleted after a while.
Above is a photo of the most recent writing spider. Its glorified web was suspended over a depression in a hedge next to a walk way. The next few days witnessed an unusual but progressive transformation of the web of this particular specimen. A probable explanation for this is a consistent and creative attempt by the spider to make a normally short-lived web last longer. As parts of the web fail, the spider reinforces the underlying foundation threads. This action invariably leads to formation of a new or different web design every time. Now the evolution of the patterns or design over time is a thing of interest. Could web patterns resembling certain alphabets be an indication of a smart web-weaver? Or perhaps a mathematically-inclined arachnid, since the characters are popular algebraic cliches?In any case, here is a challenge posed by an insect. A riddle. A picture puzzle. It is a reminder of one of such general mathematics problems with the unforgettable appendage delivering the urgent request 'find x'. Once again, we find x. And why too.
LO SCRIBA ROSSO.
Lo Scriba rosso o Scriba seduto è uno dei più importanti esempi di arte egizia dell'Antico Regno. Si tratta di una statua in pietra calcarea dipinta raffigurante uno scriba all'opera. La scultura venne scoperta a nord del Corridoio delle Sfingi del Serapeo di Saqqara nel novembre 1850 dall'egittologo francese Auguste Mariette. Attualmente fa parte della collezione di antichità egiziane del Louvre ed è la più celebre di una serie di «scribi» tra cui è anche famoso quello del Museo del Cairo.
Lo Scriba rosso, alto circa 54 cm, indossa un gonnellino bianco teso sulle ginocchia e tra le mani trattiene un papiro semiarrotolato. Le mani sono in posizione di scrittura e con tutta probabilità la destra teneva un pennello, oramai perduto. Mani, dita e unghie della scultura sono finemente modellate, tanto da farle sembrare perfette.
Per realizzare i capezzoli sono state applicate sull'ampio petto due piccole borchie di legno.
------------------------------------------------------
THE RED SCRIBE.
The Red Scribe or Seated Scribe is one of the most important examples of Egyptian art of the Old Kingdom. It is a painted limestone statue depicting a scribe at work. The sculpture was discovered north of the Sphinx Corridor of the Saqqara Serapeum in November 1850 by the French Egyptologist Auguste Mariette. It is currently part of the Louvre's collection of Egyptian antiquities and is the most famous of a series of "scribes" among which the one of the Cairo Museum is also famous.
The red Scribe, about 54 cm tall, wears a white skirt stretched over his knees and holds a semi-rolled papyrus in his hands. The hands are in a writing position and in all probability the right held a brush, now lost. Hands, fingers and nails of the sculpture are finely modeled, so that they look perfect.
To make the nipples, two small wooden studs were applied to the broad chest.
Informazioni tratte da "Wikipedia" l'enciclopedia libera.
CANON EOS 600D con ob. SIGMA 10-20 f./4-5,6 EX DC HSM
At the right are some of the best known surrealists from top: André Breton, Paul Éluard, René Magritte, Man Ray, Salvador Dalí, Max Ernst and Yves Tanguy.
We're Here looks at Art and Theory:nobs today
I have been dreaming about going to Maroon Bells since i came to know about it two years ago. So on my trip to Aspen i did not want to miss any chances to take a perfect pic. We went there the evening before to scout the location. Then we got up at 3 AM next morning and went there again. We were one of the first ones to arrive there at 4. The plan was to take some long exposure star trail pics and then take sunrise pics and also beat the infamous fall weekend crowds. Due to dense cloud cover we could not take any star trail pics. We tried taking some pictures of moving cloud, but those did not turn out to be very interesting as the clouds were moving across the picture. So we did not had much to do except to wait three hours in freezing cold and agonize over probability of the thick cloud cover robbing us from the sunrise shot. Thankfully as the time went by, the clouds started to clear up. When the sun finally came up I got the shots which have been dreaming since long. We were planning to go to crater lake after this. But when we finished taking the pics here out hands and feet were frozen from cold. We rushed back to car went back to hotel and slept off.
Yes, in a forest.
The word forest was first introduced into English as the word denoting wild land set aside for hunting, after the Normans arrived. Because these areas were typically covered in trees, it gradually became the word that denoted an area covered by trees.
This particular area of England was William I's hunting grounds, and, not far from here, is where William II (Rufus) died in 1100 from an arrow shot while hunting. It is not clear whether he was assassinated or died as a result of an accident, but the balance of probability seems to lean towards assassination.
Is your mind still buzzing over the LWL insect collection? Its now in gatcha form at the mainstore. Look for the machine in accessories!
maps.secondlife.com/secondlife/Corona%20del%20Mar/147/219/21
Probability is the same as at the Arcade event. Note that it's 25L more per pull than it was during Arcade--LWL will always charge less at the actual arcade event in order to encourage event attendance.
Traumlicht inspired me to use this quote for this picture! The complex around the Leaning Tower of Pisa is very impressive to see live.
The Leaning Tower of Pisa (Italian: Torre pendente di Pisa) or simply the Tower of Pisa (Torre di Pisa) is the campanile, or freestanding bell tower, of the cathedral of the Italian city of Pisa, known worldwide for its unintended tilt to one side. It is situated behind the Cathedral and is the third oldest structure in Pisa's Cathedral Square (Piazza del Duomo) after the Cathedral and the Baptistry. The tower's tilt began during construction, caused by an inadequate foundation on ground too soft on one side to properly support the structure's weight. The tilt increased in the decades before the structure was completed, and gradually increased until the structure was stabilized (and the tilt partially corrected) by efforts in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The height of the tower is 55.86 m (183.27 ft) from the ground on the low side and 56.70 m (186.02 ft) on the high side. The width of the walls at the base is 4.09 m (13.42 ft) and at the top 2.48 m (8.14 ft). Its weight is estimated at 14,500 metric tons (16,000 short tons). The tower has 296 or 294 steps. Prior to restoration work performed between 1990 and 2001, the tower leaned at an angle of 5.5 degrees, but the tower now leans at about 3.99 degrees. This means that the top of the tower is displaced horizontally 3.9 metres (12 ft 10 in) from where it would be if the structure were perfectly vertical. (Wikpedia)
The first crystal edited in 2015, so I can safely say it’s my favourite so far this year…. But snowflakes like this are contenders for the top spot in the series. Please do me a favour and view large and zoom in to understand why. :)
This snowflake fell yesterday, at the tail end of a snowfall that lasted most of the day. I’m not sure what the significance is, but I’ve found a higher probability of beautiful snowflakes at the very beginning or very end of a weather system. In the final moments of this storm, elegant crystals began to fall… but this only lasted a few moments. I capture one or two on my mitten and photographed them, but I wanted more.
This is where my secret weapon comes in handy. Most of you know that the black background behind my snowflakes is a homemade black mitten. I use this background for a number of reasons; it offers exceptional contrast, allows me to get a background that is mostly out of focus, and acts as an insulator - preventing a snowflake from melting. It also can act like a “Velco” type of surface, sticking to snowflakes that have already fallen. If I gently rest of the mitten on top of freshly fallen snow and then flip it over, it pulls some of the newest crystals away with it, and I can continue my search for the best snowflakes.
This search needs to happen quickly, however. Even 5-10 minutes later, the snowflakes will begin to sublimate to a point where they are only a shell of their former selves. Thankfully I have honed my technique to work as fast as possible and retain as most of the pristine crystal shapes as I can. In this snowflake, you can see harder 60-degree angles on the outside edges of the branches – it hasn’t deteriorated very much since it fell to earth.
Few storms produce large dendrite crystals with geometrically beautiful centers. I find these crystals among the most appealing, and I’m constantly searching newly fallen snow for signs of these snowflakes. These snowflakes take longer to edit (54 frames in total used for focus stacking, five and a half hours of editing) but they’re always worth it.
Check out Sky Crystals to understand all of the physics and photographic techniques seen in images like this: www.skycrystals.ca/ - you’d be amazed how much you can discover inside a single snowflake!
I don’t believe that happiness is something that walks around looking for us. I think it is something that we find. Sometimes it’s on the surface, other times it’s hidden much deeper. Sometimes we need to dress up and step outside of ourselves to see it. I always been a fan of math. The more you try, the higher the probability.
In my pursuit to avoid the omnipresent instagirls in Valensole‘s lavender fields i drove around 80 kilometers to the city of Gordes. I planned to photograph the Sénanque Abbey in the afternoon and go for a blue hour cityscape at dusk.
Since the abbey was quite disappointing from a photographical standpoint i had more than enough time to look for a remote place with a great view. I had to sneak through a broken wall and some bushes, but i finally found my 4 square meters and a nice composition, set up my camera and enjoyed the warm summer breeze along with some nice live music coming over from the city at my little hideout.
But you can’t run, you can’t hide!
Shortly before the sun settled two young ladies obviously did also the wall and bushes thing and asked me if i‘d be fine with them taking some snapshots for Instagram.
Imagine my excitement (and their confusion about me mimicking their behaviour, see: www.facebook.com/bilderschmied.danz/photos/a.178199164211... ) when they needed 30 minutes for a post worthy ”looking-over the shoulder portrait“ with the city in the background. Poor young lady No. 1 had to twist her head to the camera over and over again since flying hair is a must for a successful image on Instagram. Don’t tell me you didn’t know that!
By the way: They didn’t know which city they were abusing for the background, so they asked me for its name and were finally able to post something like ”Spending a wonderful evening in Gordes …“
They left and i had the place for myself again, enjoyed the transition from day to night when suddenly someone shouted my name with a strong french accent: „Marcüüüs, Marcüüüs!“ It was Aurélien, a photographer I met in Valensole at the morning of the same day, when I unsuccessfully tried to re-shoot the scene from my “Three trees“ image in better light. In contrast to the encounter with my ”beloved“ instagirls this reunion was a very nice one and a great coincidence. I mean how high is the probability to see someone a second time, 80 kilometers away from the place where we first met?
Reality doesn't support the notion of an underlying order to the unfolding of time. There is no plan, only probabilities.
Returns represent past performance, are not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of any specific investment.
Andrea Mantegna (1431 - 1506) - Madonna and Child (c. 1490-1500) - tempera on canvas size 43 × 35 cm - Museo Poldi Pezzoli, Milan
La Vergine stringe teneramente tra le braccia il Bambino, tenendogli il volto con le dita della mano sinistra. Gesù, avvolto in una sottile stoffa bianca, è profondamente addormentato; le sue membra sono abbandonate e la bocca è aperta. L’immagine è con ogni probabilità una raffinata prefigurazione della morte di Cristo: il telo bianco che racchiude il corpo del Bambino allude al sudario in cui fu deposto il corpo di Cristo, e anche l’espressione assorta e malinconica della Vergine rimanda a questo significato
The Virgin holds the Child tenderly in her arms, holding his face with the fingers of her left hand. Jesus, wrapped in a thin white cloth, is deeply asleep; his limbs are abandoned and his mouth is open. The image is in all probability a refined prefiguration of the death of Christ: the white cloth that encloses the body of the Child alludes to the shroud in which the body of Christ was placed, and also the absorbed and melancholy expression of the Virgin refers to this meaning
The fourth hero of Paradox Force. Took me quite a while to figure it out for a name not too corny or over the top.
Profile
Hero's name: Spectre Blade
Name: Noriko Hayashi ( ノーリコ ハヤシ)
Age: 21
Bio: Born in Nagoya, Aichi, Noriko was born to the privileged and strict Hayashi family. They were constantly at war with the Yakuza, and Noriko's family wanted her to aid/help them in their fight. Noriko refused because she would much rather patrol and see the world. At 4, her uncle secretly brought her to Columbus, Ohio, where he would raise her alone in order to prevent her being involved while still keeping in minimal contact with the family. Her uncle then started training her in martial arts skills and etc when she was 7.
Noriko had a great life from primary school to graduation at Kenyon College. At 19, her life was turned again when she was called back to Japan. Her family was disgusted to see her, calling her and her uncle a disgrace to the family. Telling Noriko the only way to gain their trust back was to continue on helping them fight the Yakuza, she refused, knowing that she never really had a good relationship with the family and half of them were corrupt, preferring to be on her own and help the others. Soon she and her uncle parted ways to go in to hiding after leaving the family, before telling her of her secret powers and gave her two indestructible sais, and a suit of armour. Noriko would travel around the world to see more, until she learnt that she wasn't the only one with powers, especially with a lot of them in Los Angeles....
Powers and abilities: Super-speed, super agility , able to go through walls, immunity to most diseases, poisons and viruses, 40% invincible to physical/energy based attacks, X-ray vision, sense things around her, expert in combat and marital arts, knows about guns but still prefers melee. Knowledgeable in melee weapons, utilizes ninjutsu, karate, MMA fighting, street fighting, black belt in judo and other forms etc. Fluent in her native tongue in Japanese and English.
Weaknesses: Can get stuck when going through walls, though this only has a 1% probability, slippery floors (formerly), sometimes can't see through things that her x-ray vision can't be used, has struggles with her family ties and honor.
Equipment: Carries melee weapons at her back, a black bandana that covers her nose and mouth (breathable and gases/shocks someone in case they want to take away her mask and find out her identity) a metal suit torso, black Kevlar, bulletproof pants, enhanced agility boots, two black indestructible daggers, sometimes various melee weapons like katanas, daggers etc.
Personality: Cool, can be very chill, which makes her very friendly around her team, loyal, serious depending on situations, protective and secure over friends, conscientious, very independent and determined.
Comment what you think about her.
(EDIT: Might consider changing Grey Cop's face when going back to Canada, you guys will see which face is perfect for him soon, and also needing help in making the next heroes.)
This is the family pond where I spent much of my childhood. In the summers, I swam here and kept up the mowing. We had friends and family over for cookouts and occasional sleepovers in tents. We hosted at least one scouting event here. In the winter, I cleared off the ice for skating (it froze solidly back then), and in the spring I ran my maple sugaring operation in a shack on its shore. The pond featured prominently in so many activities I enjoyed.
Sadly, years of neglect have led to rampant overgrowth. Where I stood to take this photo used to be a beach area; it's now overgrown with white pines reaching several inches in diameter. You'd never know it was once otherwise. The bank area to the left was once neatly mowed and weed-whacked. The shed we used for storage and sugaring is on the verge of collapse. In fact, the reason for this recent trip was to salvage the evaporator my grandfather bought for me in the 80s, and a few other treasured items before they are crushed and destroyed. I brought the evaporator back to Tennessee, where it serves no practical purpose other than preserving a bit of the past.
I could wax on poetically about all the memories I have of this place, but suffice it to say the pond was in many respects an anchor in my early life. I dreamed of possibly building a home here, but there are a number of complications involved in achieving that goal that make it impractical today. In all probability it will be sold in the not-too-distant future. For now, I have my memories and photos.
Yosemite NP Cooks Meadow Elm Tree Snow Glistening Branches! Yosemite National Park Winter Snow Fine Art Photography 45EPIC Dr. Elliot McGucken Fine Art Landscape and Nature Photography!
Greetings mate! I love voyaging forth to Yosemite to contemplate poetry, physics, the golden ratio, and the Tao te Ching! What's your favorite epic poetry reflecting epic landscapes? I recently finished a book titled Epic Poetry for Epic Landscape Photographers:
www.facebook.com/Epic-Poetry-for-Epic-Landscape-Photograp...
Did you know that John Muir, Thoreau, and Emerson all loved epic poetry and poets including Shakespeare, Milton, Homer, and Robert Burns?
I recently finished my fourth book on Light Time Dimension Theory, much of which was inspired by an autumn trip to Zion!
www.facebook.com/lightimedimensiontheory/
Via its simple principle of a fourth expanding dimension, LTD Theory provides a unifying, foundational *physical* model underlying relativity, quantum mechanics, time and all its arrows and asymmetries, and the second law of thermodynamics. The detailed diagrams demonstrate that the great mysteries of quantum mechanical nonlocality, entanglement, and probability naturally arise from the very same principle that fosters relativity alongside light's constant velocity, the equivalence of mass and energy, and time dilation.
Follow me on intsagram!
Join my new 45EPIC fine art landscapes page on facebook!
Fresh snow! More on my golden ratio musings: The Golden Number Ratio Principle: Why the Fibonacci Numbers Exalt Beauty and How to Create PHI Compositions in Art, Design, & Photography facebook.com/goldennumberratio
Best wishes on your epic hero's odyssey!:)
Bryce Canyon National Park Autumn Colors & Winter Snow Fine Art Photography 45EPIC Dr. Elliot McGucken Fine Art Landscape and Nature Photography: Nikon D810
Love shooting with both the Sony A7RII and the Nikon D810! :)
Epic Tunnel View Sunrise with El Capitan, Half Dome, the Merced River, and Bridal Veil Falls from Valley View too!
GUNNER'S
FARMHOUSE BREAD
MOST
NOURISHING FOR ALL
HOVIS
FOR HEALTH.
In all probability this originally read DAREN for health, prior to Daren going bankrupt & being merged into the Hovis brand in the late 1930s & eventually being phrased out.
This sign is on the wall of 26 Palace Gates Road, London N22 and is the most likely address for Gunner's.
There is an old sign in Wembley for a Gunner's who were butchers, did they also have a bakers?
At Grindarskörð there are series of "knuckle-knuckles", which bear the sky from the north, and they are called Bolli. Stóri-Bolli, Mið-Bollar or Tví-Bollar and finally Þrí-Bollar . At least two of these names are used for puff pastries that have very small cup shapes, and in fact have a probability that these names have ever been given or intended for them. This is true for Stóra-Bolla and Þrí-Bolla, but another case is for Mið-Bolla or Tví-Bolla. Stóri-Bolli has poured out large lava, which extends all the way north to Undirhlíðar, but has managed to spit lava seeds on the pebbles, which has stolen its name.
Instead of Mið-Bollar I like to use the name Tví-Bollar, because both exist. The craters are namely two together and truly they can also be called Little and Big, because the little crater barely covers the others "Waist" and is on his right side looking north.
The larger crater is about 35-40 m high and about 480 m above sea level. It is open to the northwest, and the lava has flowed from there, first in steep waterfalls, and then mostly in underground channels and caves, which have branched off in various ways as they descend. The so-called Death Valley caves (Dauðadalshellar), which many recognize, are in this lava. It has flowed over the lava from Stóra-Bolli. Slender silt has flowed along Lönguhlíð and can be seen there in various ways, but the main lava has fallen into a wide waterfall all the way north to Helgafell. Finally, it sent a thin stream west through Helgafell to the southwest. It can be seen in many places that it has fallen into cracks in older lava, which the Gullkistugjá is in and is from Stóra-BoIIa.
This eruption has occurred at the time when the settlement of the Nordic people in Iceland was beginning or in the beginning. Therefore, the eruption in the Tví-Bollar at Grindarskörð may have been the first fire metabolism that our ancestors looked at in this country.