View allAll Photos Tagged Probability
This is a little clay pipe that I found on the Thames foreshore at Blackfriars recently. The part shown here is about 1.5" long. I haven't been able to find out anything about it or date it, but I think the probability is that it is 19th century, but could be earlier. The face, particularly in profile looks African. The shore is often littered with remnants of clay pipes at low tide, but this is the first decorated one I have come across.
See my albums list for some of my best work: www.flickr.com/photos/200044612@N04/albums/
See my main account for my photography, videos, fractal images and more here: www.flickr.com/photos/josh-rokman/
Made with Image Creator from Microsoft Designer, formerly known as the Bing Image Creator. Powered by DALL·E 3.
I think that AI image generation is similar in many ways to photography. The camera itself handles all the fine details, but the photographer is in charge of curating the types of images that will be created.
Ultimately, it is all about maximizing the probability that something good will be created.
This is very similar to AI image generation, in terms of the skills involved and what the human does vs. what the machine does.
You can't compare AI image generation to the process of actually making these images from scratch with 3D software or paint/pencils, where the human controls every detail.
However, I think the process really is very similar to that of photography, as I made the case for above. I think that DALL-E 3 is by far the most powerful AI image generation tool currently available.
- Josh
Using almost 7000 images captured by the Sentinel-2A satellite, this mosaic offers a cloud-free view of the African continent – about 20% of the total land area in the world. The majority of these separate images were taken between December 2015 and April 2016, totalling 32 TB of data. Thanks to Sentinel-2A’s 290 km-wide swath and 10-day revisit at the equator, the chance of imaging Earth’s surface when the skies are clear is relatively high. Nevertheless, being able to capture the Tropics cloud-free over the five months is remarkable.
Presented at the recent Living Planet Symposium in Prague, Czech Republic, this is the first mosaic of Africa generated through ESA’s Climate Change Initiative Land Cover project.
Launched in June 2015, Sentinel-2A carries a novel multispectral imager to provide information that is not only used to map changes in land cover, but is also used to improve agricultural practices, to monitor the world’s forests and to detect pollution in lakes and coastal waters.
Sentinel-2A’s identical twin, Sentinel-2B, is due to be launched in 2017. As a constellation, the two satellites will orbit 180° apart. Along with their wide swaths, this will allow Earth’s main land surfaces, large islands, as well as inland and coastal waters to be covered every five days. This will further improve the probability of gaining a cloud-free look at a particular location.
Credit: Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2016), processed by Brockmann Consult/ Université catholique de Louvain as part of ESA’s Climate Change Initiative Land Cover project
Monsoons are prime time for photographing landscapes. The thing is one cannot go out and shoot daily due to other responsibilities. I have a way of guessing the probability of having a glorious colorful sunset and it always works like a charm.
I keep an eye on the skies during late afternoons. If I see the small puffy Alto-Cumulus or thin wispy Cirrus clouds, I will surely pickup my camera kit and tripod and make a beeline for a picturesque water body. These clouds although might look white and gray during the daytime, glow a vibrant pink first, shift to fiery crimson and finally a blood red.
The key is patience. Sit tight for few minutes post sunset. The sky actually goes a disappointing dull gray for a while post sunset. Then the fireworks begin and lasts for just a few minutes.
Take various exposures. Thank the skies. Thank me too if you are a kind soul! 🙏😅
#incredibleindia #suratcity #suratblogger #travelblogger #gujarattourism #gujarattravel #cityscapes #bbctravel #goldenhourphotography #landscapeslovers
The #MacroMondays #Timepieces theme
Physicist Sir Arthur Eddington introduced us to The Arrow of Time. As we look into the future we see a universe which is gradually descending into disorder, expanding and cooling, ultimately to become a scattered collection of particles so far separated within an unimaginably vast nothingness that the probability of them ever again combining to create anything is zilch. That is indeed a depressing forecast of our destiny, but as the process will take about 10 trillion years (around 50x the current age of The Universe) there's no need to cancel your pro subs just yet. Conversely if we look into our past we see greater order. Ultimately we could look back to The Big Bang when The Universe was simple and very highly ordered before its unimaginably rapid expansion an instant later.
HMM all - very deep for a Monday! Sir Arthur illustrates The Second Law of Thermodynamics which holds that entropy increases with time. The entropy of a system refers to the amount of order within it. Low entropy describes a high degree of order. For example, if we conceptually reduce your home, that pile of bricks or whatever, into its constituent atoms we can imagine that only a very few arrangements of those atoms would create your home, meaning that your home is a low entropy system. Similarly a pile of beach sand has a high level of disorder, representing high entropy. A pile of sand is a pile of sand - there are very many ways the grains of sand in a pile may be arranged to create any old pile and one pile of sand is pretty much the same as any other. However, if you put some in a bucket then threw it into the air, you would be very surprised if it landed in the form of a sand castle. But it could, proven by you instead flipping the bucket over in traditional seaside fashion, giving it a tap and carefully removing it, creating your sand castle. The grains therefore can make such a thing and could therefore land in just the right places even if you threw them into the air. But there are far many more configurations that they could take (most of which are unremarkable piles) so while a sand castle magically appearing from a load of airborne sand could theoretically happen, it is a vanishingly improbable event. Functionally speaking, the probability of such an event occurring is zero. If you left a formed sand castle alone, you'd see its entropy increase as it decays into an unremarkable high entropy pile of sand. Ultimately it will become just another part of the even higher entropy beach, demonstrating, during your hard earned summer holiday, a university level physics concept. I've never done a university physics course, he hastily clarifies, but I have done some reading on it.
I should say that it has been fairly pointed out to me that this interpretation does depend on one's world view. This is mine. It's a world view which led to the manufacture of transport options to get to beaches, buckets capable of creating sand castles, cameras, the internet and probes heading to the edges of The Solar System and ultimately beyond on precisely predetermined trajectories calculated using physics, so I think it has some evidence to support it. The background of the photo is the Christian creation story, Genesis 1. That's mine too.
In creating the image, I used a plain yellow background created in Photoshop over which I added a layer of a paving stone to provide texture, reducing its opacity to allow the yellow to colour it. Genesis followed, and finally a photo of a small pocket watch which I vandalised through the wonders of Photoshop, using much tiny deleting, moving and transforming, its parts disappearing into the future as it falls into disorder, following The Arrow of Time.
1966 Corvette...
On Sunday I attended the the 14th Annual Cruisin' for A Cure Canada;
Something I have been a huge supporter of in the past. The Car Show That Saves Men's Lives, which is held annually at the Powerade center in Brampton.
This is a shot of a 1966 Chevrolet Corvette. It has been completely restored to factory and has 90% OEM original parts with a market value of 100K it is a little out of my price range, but it sure was fun to look at.
Please tell your husbands, fathers, uncles, grandfather brothers and any man you care about to get a PSA test it changes the odds from 5 % survivability to 93%.
Prostate cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death in American men, behind lung cancer. About 1 man in 41 will die of prostate cancer. Prostate cancer can be a fatal disease, but due to early detection most men diagnosed with prostate cancer will not die from it.
74% of prostate cancers are diagnosed early at Stage I and II. The probability of surviving prostate cancer at least five years after diagnosis is about 93% in Canada.
For more information check out the website for the car show.
www.cruisinforacurecanada.com/About.htm
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© NICK MUNROE (MUNROE PHOTOGRAPHY)
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Based on a tipper from WR, the kiddos and I caught up with eastbound CSX train Q332 at Highland, IL. Initially, it was to have been a "one and done" based on the probability of UP power leading this train. However, CSX 3100 was too good to pass up and we beat the train to Vandalia for the "passing the tower" shot.
The tower is the former Pennsy "V" Tower, which used to guard the former crossing of the Illinois Central's original "mainline of mid-America." It continues to serve as headquarters for the Vandalia Railroad, owned by Pioneer Rail Corp..
To the left of the train is the former IC depot, which functioned as a restaurant for a time before being gutted by fire twice, in both 2007 and 2010.
The Narrows, Zion National Park, Utah. 31-5-1996.
The Narrows lies at the northern end of the Zion Canyon in Utah. The walls become quite close at certain points and one gets the feeling of a slot canyon. However, the color here is different than the sandstone we are used to seeing in the slots, and then there is the constant flow of the Virgin River. I hiked upstream for about 10 km before making this image. Wading the water in sandals was not always easy because one has to step on rocks and pebbles most of the time. The diagonal flow of the river leads the eye to the diffused light, which is reminiscent of what one hopes to see at the end of a dark tunnel. I bracketed just in case, and all exposures turned out fine. That big chunk of rock represents one of the dangers of being in a canyon, albeit one with an arbitrarily low probability of occurrence.
Please click here for a larger version with proper resizing.
Please click here for more from Zion Canyon.
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All images are exclusive property and may not be copied, downloaded, reproduced, transmitted, manipulated or used in any way without the written permission of the photographer.
I didn’t choose this quote. It was chosen by one of the two groups that featured my (above) image this week. That was a spot on on my feelings & views of life. Love #BrooklynBridge
Maybe it’s just me but after a certain age every little setback feels as a major failure. And then I figure that if we try 1000 times maybe at least once will get something right. The theory of probability just can’t be wrong !
What if ? / Et si ? - by Daniel Knipper, one of the shows from the 14th edition of the Festival of Lights / Fête des Lumières - 2012 - Lyon, France.
Like a succession of probabilities, huge coloured drawings inspired notably by the works of Joan Miro, Picasso or Mondrian, pass across the majestic scene comprising (from up to down and left to right) the Fourvière basilica, the chevet of the Cathédrale Saint-Jean and the façade of the Palais de Justice.
What if the quays of the Saône became an art exhibition? And what if it featured fish? And what if the fish belonged to the era of our ancestors ? And what if the pictures were transformed into caves with cave paintings in the open air? And if the sky were full of stars?
The Grand Teton Meteor was an Earth-grazing fireball that passed within 57 kilometres (35 mi; 187,000 ft) of Earth's surface at 20:29 UTC on August 10, 1972. It entered Earth's atmosphere at a speed of 15 kilometres per second (9.3 mi/s) in daylight over Utah, United States (14:30 local time) and passed northwards leaving the atmosphere over Alberta, Canada. It was seen by many people and recorded on film and by space-borne sensors. An eyewitness to the event, located in Missoula, Montana, saw the object pass directly overhead and heard a double sonic boom. The smoke trail lingered in the atmosphere for several minutes. He was with his wife Mildred on the way to the County Auction.
The atmospheric pass modified the object's mass as well as its orbit around the Sun, but it is probably still in an Earth-crossing orbit and is thought to have passed close to Earth again in August 1997. However IAU's website states that these "suggestions have not been substantiated". The prediction of a close passage in 1997 was based on the suggestion by Zdeněk Ceplecha of a post-1972 orbital resonance of about 25 years. If true, the next encounter would be on or near August 14, 2022, albeit with "vanishingly small, but not zero" probability.
after decades of watching the benford probabilities for sixes and nines slowly and almost imperceptively skew towards zero, agent affords had finally found the culprit.
a flower so dense that not a single six or nine could escape, which naturally and inevitably results in a numerical singularity of sorts. [ view large ]
Kestrel - Falco tinnunculus (m)
The common kestrel (Falco tinnunculus) is a bird of prey species belonging to the kestrel group of the falcon family Falconidae. It is also known as the European kestrel, Eurasian kestrel, or Old World kestrel. In Britain, where no other kestrel species occurs, it is generally just called "the kestrel".
This species occurs over a large range. It is widespread in Europe, Asia, and Africa, as well as occasionally reaching the east coast of North America.
Kestrels can hover in still air, even indoors in barns. Because they face towards any slight wind when hovering, the common kestrel is called a "windhover" in some areas.
Unusual for falcons, plumage often differs between male and female, although as is usual with monogamous raptors the female is slightly larger than the male. This allows a pair to fill different feeding niches over their home range. Kestrels are bold and have adapted well to human encroachment, nesting in buildings and hunting by major roads. Kestrels do not build their own nests, but use nests built by other species.
Their plumage is mainly light chestnut brown with blackish spots on the upperside and buff with narrow blackish streaks on the underside; the remiges are also blackish. Unlike most raptors, they display sexual colour dimorphism with the male having fewer black spots and streaks, as well as a blue-grey cap and tail. The tail is brown with black bars in females, and has a black tip with a narrow white rim in both sexes. All common kestrels have a prominent black malar stripe like their closest relatives.
The cere, feet, and a narrow ring around the eye are bright yellow; the toenails, bill and iris are dark. Juveniles look like adult females, but the underside streaks are wider; the yellow of their bare parts is paler. Hatchlings are covered in white down feathers, changing to a buff-grey second down coat before they grow their first true plumage.
Data from Britain shows nesting pairs bringing up about 2–3 chicks on average, though this includes a considerable rate of total brood failures; actually, few pairs that do manage to fledge offspring raise less than 3 or 4. Compared to their siblings, first-hatched chicks have greater survival and recruitment probability, thought to be due to the first-hatched chicks obtaining a higher body condition when in the nest. Population cycles of prey, particularly voles, have a considerable influence on breeding success. Most common kestrels die before they reach 2 years of age; mortality up until the first birthday may be as high as 70%. At least females generally breed at one year of age; possibly, some males take a year longer to maturity as they do in related species. The biological lifespan to death from senescence can be 16 years or more, however; one was recorded to have lived almost 24 years.
Population:
UK breeding:
46,000 pairs
I deleted a similar previous photo of these falls because I think this one is better.
Babcock Falls is a really special little waterfall. The hike from the parking lot is relatively easy, level and short. This is a pretty waterfall in the summer and you can take a dip in the pool on a hot day. In the winter, this is a favorite for the ice climbers.
There are two things I don't like about the hike in, though. This hike has one of the highest probabilities of meeting up with a grizzly bear. One time, my son and I walked over fresh, steaming, grizzly bear scat right on the path. What do you do when you are 1 km into a hike, with 500 m to the falls. Well, you continue and just make a lot of noise. The ants go marching and bottles of beer on the wall are two favorites for this hike.
The second thing I don't like about this hike is right at the end of the trail, to get to this viewpoint, you have to scramble over some rocks and squeeze through an opening between large boulders and the drop off on your left is rather frightening if you look. Most hikers would laugh but I don't like that spot.
See my albums list for some of my best work: www.flickr.com/photos/200044612@N04/albums/
See my main account for my photography, videos, fractal images and more here: www.flickr.com/photos/josh-rokman/
Made with Image Creator from Microsoft Designer, formerly known as the Bing Image Creator. Powered by DALL·E 3.
I think that AI image generation is similar in many ways to photography. The camera itself handles all the fine details, but the photographer is in charge of curating the types of images that will be created.
Ultimately, it is all about maximizing the probability that something good will be created.
This is very similar to AI image generation, in terms of the skills involved and what the human does vs. what the machine does.
You can't compare AI image generation to the process of actually making these images from scratch with 3D software or paint/pencils, where the human controls every detail.
However, I think the process really is very similar to that of photography, as I made the case for above. I think that DALL-E 3 is by far the most powerful AI image generation tool currently available.
- Josh
Hugh Mercer QC and Peter Webster, instructed by Exeme Avocats, Bordeaux, represented the City of Bordeaux in the successful recovery from London of four 14th and 15th century altar panels stolen in the 1980s. The Nottinghamshire alabaster panels had probably originally arrived in Bordeaux in the Middle Ages as payment for a shipment of wine.
The renowned theft of the panels from the basilica of St Michel in Bordeaux, a UNESCO world heritage site, was discovered in the 1990s. Though three of the missing pieces were quickly recovered, four proved harder to track down. An international investigation eventually located them in London, where they had been purchased after various intermediate sales in the USA. An agreement regarding their return was concluded late last year thereby avoiding litigation and a formal ceremony marking the return of the panels was held on 21 September in Bordeaux, under the aegis of the French Minister of Culture and presided over by the Mayor of Bordeaux. The matter is reported in The Times (25 September: www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/blessed-relief-for-plunde...) and in the French press: www.bordeaux.fr/p139144/les-albatres-de-saint-michel or www.aquitaineonline.com/actualites-en-aquitaine/bordeaux-...
essexcourt.com/recovery-of-artwork-stolen-from-world-heri...
The ninth medieval alabaster from the altarpiece of Saint-Michel de Bordeaux rediscovered?
Considerations about a St. John the Evangelist from the Walters Art Museum in Baltimore.
The Basilica of Saint-Michel in Bordeaux is home to one of the largest and best preserved English alabaster altarpieces dedicated to the Joys of the Virgin. Seven of its nine panels were stolen in 1984. After almost forty years, in 2019, the last four panels were recovered, and the ensemble is once
again complete. However, it is not entirely complete The panel at the right end, probably depicting St. Joseph, is not a medieval work but a plaster pastiche executed certainly in the 19th century. The lost original may have found its way into a Parisian collection before 1882, before ending up in the
Walters Art Gallery in Baltimore at the beginning of the 20th century. The American museum in fact possesses an English alabaster panel depicting St. John the Evangelist, which in all probability originally belonged to the Bordeaux ensemble. In addition to the matching dimensions, the very characteristic stylistic treatment of the artwork and some iconographic arguments, detailed in the article, argue in favour of this presumed identification.
www.societe-archeologique-bordeaux.fr/publications/schlic...
A trip to West Bay this morning where until lunchtime it was rather cloudy. Time for some black and white photography.
Whilst walking along the sea front we bumped into John who coincidentally was spending a few days in Dorset.
It’s amazing how often these chance encounters occur and yet is it? Research suggests it depends upon how you think about the issue. Before the encounter, if you sat down and calculated the probability that you would see X Person on some random street in Y Town at some specific time, the odds would be extremely small. However, the odds that you will see someone you know, at some point, in some random city, are much larger. When you see X in Y, your brain naturally jumps to the former method and you think the chances are, say, 1:10,000,000. This is the wrong way of looking at it. The chance of seeing one particular person you know in a certain city may be 1:10,000,000, but if you know a lot of people, and you visit a lot of cities, then the probability that, at some point in your life, you see a friend in a random city is much higher than 1:10,000,000.
Busy Worming!
Kestrel - Falco tinnunculus (m)
The common kestrel (Falco tinnunculus) is a bird of prey species belonging to the kestrel group of the falcon family Falconidae. It is also known as the European kestrel, Eurasian kestrel, or Old World kestrel. In Britain, where no other kestrel species occurs, it is generally just called "the kestrel".
This species occurs over a large range. It is widespread in Europe, Asia, and Africa, as well as occasionally reaching the east coast of North America.
Kestrels can hover in still air, even indoors in barns. Because they face towards any slight wind when hovering, the common kestrel is called a "windhover" in some areas.
Unusual for falcons, plumage often differs between male and female, although as is usual with monogamous raptors the female is slightly larger than the male. This allows a pair to fill different feeding niches over their home range. Kestrels are bold and have adapted well to human encroachment, nesting in buildings and hunting by major roads. Kestrels do not build their own nests, but use nests built by other species.
Their plumage is mainly light chestnut brown with blackish spots on the upperside and buff with narrow blackish streaks on the underside; the remiges are also blackish. Unlike most raptors, they display sexual colour dimorphism with the male having fewer black spots and streaks, as well as a blue-grey cap and tail. The tail is brown with black bars in females, and has a black tip with a narrow white rim in both sexes. All common kestrels have a prominent black malar stripe like their closest relatives.
The cere, feet, and a narrow ring around the eye are bright yellow; the toenails, bill and iris are dark. Juveniles look like adult females, but the underside streaks are wider; the yellow of their bare parts is paler. Hatchlings are covered in white down feathers, changing to a buff-grey second down coat before they grow their first true plumage.
Data from Britain shows nesting pairs bringing up about 2–3 chicks on average, though this includes a considerable rate of total brood failures; actually, few pairs that do manage to fledge offspring raise less than 3 or 4. Compared to their siblings, first-hatched chicks have greater survival and recruitment probability, thought to be due to the first-hatched chicks obtaining a higher body condition when in the nest. Population cycles of prey, particularly voles, have a considerable influence on breeding success. Most common kestrels die before they reach 2 years of age; mortality up until the first birthday may be as high as 70%. At least females generally breed at one year of age; possibly, some males take a year longer to maturity as they do in related species. The biological lifespan to death from senescence can be 16 years or more, however; one was recorded to have lived almost 24 years.
Population:
UK breeding:
46,000 pairs
Squeaky Beach in Wilsons Prom National Park in Victoria, Australia - when I went to this beach, I was full of anticipation of hearing a squeaking sound as we walked. Unfortunately nothing happened on that day
and googling gave us the info that on dry days you have more probability of hearing that sound. The day we went was very very wet. Yet the disappointment did not engulf me.
In fact, the white quartz sand, the turquoise blue water meeting further away a contour of wavy hills and the red lichen-splattered huge granite boulders creating an adventurous maze
-- all these made our day. We would love to go back there soon in the future.
Intending to return to this spot this morning, I startled a grizzly bear about 40 feet in front of me. He bolted way at high speed, crashing through brush as he went. Standing still and making noise for a while, figuring that he had probably wandered off after the encounter, I suddenly noticed him staring at me looking very agitated, in about the same point that he had bolted from! This highly aggressive bahavior is in sharp contrast with what I've observed from black bears (even our bears in California are relatively laid back). The grizzly was clearly pissed off, making a loud huffing noise and made lunges into the bush in front of him, clawing at it with his giant paws. He probably thought as I moved downhill swiftly towards him that I was charging him, and although his "fight or flight" instinct initially told him to run, he had clearly chosen to come back for some "fight" once I started making noise and he figured out what I was.
I figured the bear could close the distance between us in 3 seconds or less. I could either retreat inmmediately or turn on my camera on (unfortunately with a wide angle lens on), get it out of 10 second timer mode, and capture a few frames (possibly the last of my life). Choices are rarely so easy. I assured the bear that yes, it was his huckleberry bush, backing up. I don't remember actually getting back up the hill, but I know that I was careful not to run, and an instant later I was most of the way back up. I warned the half dozen photographers at the top of the hill that they had an agitated bear 50 yards downhill.
When I reachded the Locan Pass ranger station I filed a bear encounter report. Several rangers told me over the next 24 hours that I was very lucky not to get attacked. I read a book "Bear Attacks" the following morning and the huffing noise is the second most common thing grizzlies do right before they attack. Growling is reported by slightly more survivors of grizzly attacks. Loud vocal noises by people are interpreted as highly aggressive behavior and can trigger an attack. My yelling up to the other photographers at the top of the hill to warn them about the bear and my whistling loudly may have been what brought him back (interpreted as a challenge). If I had happened upon a female and cubs (like the ones I saw this morning), there's a high probability that I would have been instantly charged and the females are much less likely to end a charge as a "bluff" attack.
Always wear bear bells in grizzly country!
Holga 120 wide pinhole camera
Kodak Portra 400 @200 ASA
"In conclusion our model shows that a catastrophic collapse in human population, due to resource consumption, is the most likely scenario of the dynamical evolution based on current parameters. Adopting a combined deterministic and stochastic model we conclude from a statistical point of view that the probability that our civilisation survives itself is less than 10% in the most optimistic scenario. Calculations show that, maintaining the actual rate of population growth and resource consumption, in particular forest consumption, we have a few decades left before an irreversible collapse of our civilisation (see Fig. 5)."
See my albums list for some of my best work: www.flickr.com/photos/200044612@N04/albums/
See my main account for my photography, videos, fractal images and more here: www.flickr.com/photos/josh-rokman/
Made with Image Creator from Microsoft Designer, formerly known as the Bing Image Creator. Powered by DALL·E 3.
I think that AI image generation is similar in many ways to photography. The camera itself handles all the fine details, but the photographer is in charge of curating the types of images that will be created.
Ultimately, it is all about maximizing the probability that something good will be created.
This is very similar to AI image generation, in terms of the skills involved and what the human does vs. what the machine does.
You can't compare AI image generation to the process of actually making these images from scratch with 3D software or paint/pencils, where the human controls every detail.
However, I think the process really is very similar to that of photography, as I made the case for above. I think that DALL-E 3 is by far the most powerful AI image generation tool currently available.
- Josh
When animals are faced with extraordinary energy-consuming events, like hibernation, finding abundant, energy-rich food resources becomes particularly important. The profitability of food resources can vary spatially, depending on occurrence, quality, and local abundance. Here, we used the brown bear as a model species to quantify selective foraging on berries in different habitats during hyperphagia in autumn prior to hibernation. During the peak berry season in August and September, we sampled berry occurrence, abundance, and sugar content, a proxy for quality, at locations selected by bears for foraging and at random locations in the landscape. The factors determining selection of berries were species specific across the different habitats. Compared to random locations, bears selected locations with a higher probability of occurrence and higher abundance of bilberries and a higher probability of occurrence, but not abundance, of lingonberries. Crowberries were least available and least used. Sugar content affected the selection of lingonberries, but not of bilberries. Abundance of bilberries at random locations decreased and abundance of lingonberries increased during fall, but bears did not adjust their foraging strategy by increasing selection for lingonberries. Forestry practices had a large effect on berry occurrence and abundance, and brown bears responded by foraging most selectively in mature forests and on clear cuts. This study shows that bears are successful in navigating human-shaped forest landscapes by using areas of higher than average berry abundance in a period when abundant food intake is particularly important to increase body mass prior to hibernation.
Found myself yesterday playing that optical illusion game while riding in a pickup truck. The one where you look forward and it feels as if you're going 20 mph, then look directly out the side window and it looks like 200 mph. The landscape hurtles past in a dizzying bur. The effect is enhanced on narrow country roads where you can practically reach out and touch whatever it is your driving past. Moving a mile a minute, you can only take in your surroundings in broad strokes: building, tree, corn, etc. It's not possible to scrutinize and absorb details the way I'm accustomed to. I thought about what it would be like to create a freeze frame, to lockup not just the landscape, but how it looked at the exact moment of my passage, the light, the shadow, the way the wind was blowing the leaves, the shape of clouds...every single detail, not simply preserved, but all that nuance extracted from a fleeting glimpse. I pulled out the smartphone and began snapping photos expecting the same blur that was greeting my own eyes. Instead I captured a series of mostly sharply focused stills with an eerie sort of quality, fueled in part knowing how they were captured. In reality I saw this scene as I passed, but really didn't see it at all. There was a trail-camera feeling not really knowing what would turn up. How cool if I had captured a scarecrow, wild animal, or perhaps a figure lurking between the corn rows. I absolutely love the spontaneity of things like this. I tend to shoot rather deliberately at times, and I found it very exciting to leave the composition up to utter chance. Processing the image as a distressed texture felt to me like taking the idea one step further; I love the concept of lending a painterly quality to the image, as if an old master spent a hours capturing every detail when the underlying image was frozen in a micro second.
T-100 Ogre MBT
--------------------
A high tech medium-heavy tank.
A menacing, destructive heavy weapons platform.
It boasts twin AA 25mm autocannons, ATGM, and coaxial/turret-top machineguns. Seen from the front, the chassis looks like an Ogre, giving it the name it has.
The ATGM is able to target low flying air targets along with armour.
There are two variants: G and K. G employs a normal 125mm heavy tank cannon, while K is equipped with a lower range, high calibre 148mm gun. Both are capable of supermassive destruction.
As with most UT tanks, it features a three-tier protection system.
The first tier is the composite armour. It consists of basic armour shell with an insert of alternating layers of aluminum and plastics and a controlled deformation section.
The second tier is the Kontakt-5 ERA (explosive reactive armor). It severely reduces the blow from kinetic projectiles. They are in the form of blocks on the turret and body or as ERA plates underneath steel outer covering. It results in much better protection than simple steel armour as featured on many other non-UT tanks.
The third tier is a Shtora countermeasures suite. This system includes two IR "dazzlers" on the front of the turret in the shape of blocks, four Laser warning receivers, two 3D6 aerosol grenade discharging systems and a computerized control system. The Shtora-1 warns the tank's crew when the tank has been 'painted' by a weapon-guidance laser and automatically activates the aerosol grenade launchers, effectively jamming the incoming missile. The aerosol grenades are used to mask the tank from laser rangefinders and designators as well as the optics of other weapons systems.
For passive guidance rocket systems, IR dazzlers create a blinding field of infrared light, "blinding" the rocket as it's IR isn't visible anymore.
The Arena active countermeasures suite consist of a computer, incoming projectile warning sensors, and shrapnel launchers all around the tank hull. It detects an incoming projectile, and sends out a stream of shrapnel to meet the incoming projectile. It destroys the projectile while leaving the armour intact.
Powered by a hybrid diesel/electric engine. Fast, has good suspension, and is able to submerge completely into water without leaks. Employs an autoloader.
It has it's own air search radar, allowing it to use autocannons by themselves without external assistance. Range up to 3 kilometer radius.
The tanks are also fitted with nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) protection equipment. It includes a mine disabling kit. The EMT-7 electromagnetic-counter mine system is installed: the EMT-7 emits an electromagnetic pulse to disable magnetic mines and disrupt electronics before the tank reaches them. The Nakidka signature reduction suite is also equipped. Nakidka is designed to reduce the probabilities of an object to be detected by Infrared, Thermal, Radar-Thermal, and Radar bands.
A mineplow is attached to the front of the tank, making sure mines aren't a problem.
All tanks are installed with night vision and infrared cameras, with direct feed into screens inside the tank.
The tank fires anti-tank rounds with tungsten cores.
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Cost: 6,000 GC Credits (7,200 GC Credits - Tier 1)
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Inspiration from Endwar. Spetsnaz Brigade T-100 Ogre Main Battle Tank.
Family group, taken earlier this week at Ballinasloe horse fair. In all probability being there was keeping up a family tradition that could well go back several generations. Traditionally Irish traveller families have attended this fair, not only to buy and sell horses, but also, to socialise with fellow travellers from all over the country.
As every intelligent person knows, Pop Art accounts for three distinct periods.
1. Starving Time. The interesting and fruitful period when a young but already genial artist makes his or her first paintings - the gratest masterpieces of all time. Everything is good but no money to buy some food.
2. Soup Era. This is when a young but already genial artist sells his first piece of great art, or robs a bank (I'm not sure which event has a greater mathematical probability), or just borrows some bucks from a mediocre and worthless person and buys some cans of soup. Of course, the artist documents such a great and rare event (of having canned soup). Many hungry artists follows the father-founder of Pop Art and document their food, drinks, whatever eatable, and personal effects too.
3. After The Lunch. A sated, full-bellied artist doesn't need soup cans for the time being, so he entertains himself right after the lunch, for instance, the way this photo shows. Finally the artist becomes, out of the blue, famous. He has a lot of social commitments now, so he has no free time to make good art. But he is rich now, and that is the Happy End of the story. I wonder if this photo can repeat the success of the artist? What do you think? Feel free to express your opinion in comments.
A hand painted memorial for people killed in motorcycle accidents. There are stickers on it that say Ride in Paradise. This would imply that there are motorcycles in the afterlife.
I come across death markers occasionally. This one is elaborate, most are simple. Flowers. Pictures. Crosses.
All involve vehicles which isn't surprising as I'm on the street.
It's a shitstorm of carnage on the street. I'm very wary of cars. There is a high probability I will be killed by a vehicle. The same probably applies to you.
IMGP9611
12540 Lucknow-Yesvantpur Express skips Baiyyappanahalli with Howrah WAP-4 22291 which is in all probability an offlink, since the closest the train gets to Howrah is Allahabad!
PMP-PT - Bronnevaya Machina Pehoti - Protevo Tankaya (IFV-AT)
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A light tank with transport ability.
Designed to replace the very old, never used Zverh transport.
It is armed with a 50mm main cannon, twin side mounted 20mm AA/Anti-personnel autocannons, ATGM, and a coaxial MG. Also, it has it's own air search radar, so the tank can venture on it's own and still use it's autocannons accurately up to a 3 kilometer radius.
It's ATGM is effective up to 1 km, and is used on both enemy armoured vehicles and low flying targets such as helicopters.
As with most UT tanks, it features a three-tier protection system.
The first tier is the composite armour. It consists of basic armour shell with an insert of alternating layers of aluminum and plastics and a controlled deformation section.
The second tier is the Kontakt-5 ERA (explosive reactive armor). It severely reduces the blow from kinetic projectiles. They are in the form of blocks on the turret and body or as ERA plates underneath steel outer covering. It results in much better protection than simple steel armour as featured on many other non-UT tanks.
The third tier is a Shtora countermeasures suite. This system includes two IR "dazzlers" on the front of the turret in the shape of blocks, four Laser warning receivers, two 3D6 aerosol grenade discharging systems and a computerized control system. The Shtora-1 warns the tank's crew when the tank has been 'painted' by a weapon-guidance laser and automatically activates the aerosol grenade launchers, effectively jamming the incoming missile. The aerosol grenades are used to mask the tank from laser rangefinders and designators as well as the optics of other weapons systems.
For passive guidance rocket systems, IR dazzlers create a blinding field of infrared light, "blinding" the rocket as it's IR isn't visible anymore.
The Arena active countermeasures suite consist of a computer, incoming projectile warning sensors, and shrapnel launchers all around the tank hull. It detects an incoming projectile, and sends out a stream of shrapnel to meet the incoming projectile. It destroys the projectile while leaving the armour intact.
Powered by a hybrid diesel/electric engine. Fast, has good suspension, and is able to submerge completely into water without leaks.
The tanks are also fitted with nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) protection equipment. It includes a mine disabling kit. The EMT-7 electromagnetic-counter mine system is installed: the EMT-7 emits an electromagnetic pulse to disable magnetic mines and disrupt electronics before the tank reaches them. The Nakidka signature reduction suite is also equipped. Nakidka is designed to reduce the probabilities of an object to be detected by Infrared, Thermal, Radar-Thermal, and Radar bands.
All tanks are installed with night vision and infrared cameras, with direct feed into screens inside the tank.
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Cost: 4,000 GC Credits
NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft has returned the best color and the highest resolution images yet of Pluto’s largest moon, Charon – and these pictures show a surprisingly complex and violent history.
At half the diameter of Pluto, Charon is the largest satellite relative to its planet in the solar system. Many New Horizons scientists expected Charon to be a monotonous, crater-battered world; instead, they’re finding a landscape covered with mountains, canyons, landslides, surface-color variations and more.
“We thought the probability of seeing such interesting features on this satellite of a world at the far edge of our solar system was low,” said Ross Beyer, an affiliate of the New Horizons Geology, Geophysics and Imaging (GGI) team from the SETI Institute and NASA Ames Research Center in Mountain View, California, “but I couldn't be more delighted with what we see."
High-resolution images of the Pluto-facing hemisphere of Charon, taken by New Horizons as the spacecraft sped through the Pluto system on July 14 and transmitted to Earth on Sept. 21, reveal details of a belt of fractures and canyons just north of the moon’s equator. This great canyon system stretches more than 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) across the entire face of Charon and likely around onto Charon’s far side. Four times as long as the Grand Canyon, and twice as deep in places, these faults and canyons indicate a titanic geological upheaval in Charon’s past.
“It looks like the entire crust of Charon has been split open,” said John Spencer, deputy lead for GGI at the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado. “With respect to its size relative to Charon, this feature is much like the vast Valles Marineris canyon system on Mars.”
The team has also discovered that the plains south of the Charon’s canyon -- informally referred to as Vulcan Planum -- have fewer large craters than the regions to the north, indicating that they are noticeably younger. The smoothness of the plains, as well as their grooves and faint ridges, are clear signs of wide-scale resurfacing.
One possibility for the smooth surface is a kind of cold volcanic activity, called cryovolcanism. “The team is discussing the possibility that an internal water ocean could have frozen long ago, and the resulting volume change could have led to Charon cracking open, allowing water-based lavas to reach the surface at that time,” said Paul Schenk, a New Horizons team member from the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston.
Image Credit: NASA
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These official NASA photographs are being made available for publication by news organizations and/or for personal use printing by the subject(s) of the photographs. The photographs may not be used in materials, advertisements, products, or promotions that in any way suggest approval or endorsement by NASA. All Images used must be credited. For information on usage rights please visit: www.nasa.gov/audience/formedia/features/MP_Photo_Guidelin...
Taken in Leicestershire, I was visiting because a ♂ Common Scoter was seen the day before, I knew it was a longshot has Scoters migrate at night so the probability of it still being there was quite small, but there was a long stay bird that I could spend my time with.
We didn't find the Scoter but the Ring-necked duck was very obliging and the closest that I had seen it.
The light was very variable as you can tell by the differences in the water colour, but a very enjoyable couple of hours.
It's an entrancing morning here in Portland. Pitch black, misty and cold, but crisp and beautiful. It's completely quiet downtown, with only the occasional car going by. I wonder what they're doing up at 4:30am.
As I went out to my car to grab my sweatshirt, I encountered the mist, grinned broadly and went upstairs to grab my tripod and camera. I'd never be able to get this shot during an un-outrageous hour of the morning. Standing on the MAX tracks at any hour with a long exposure just doesn't tend to be a good idea.
The outrageous hour is explained by me having been at work since 9:00am yesterday. With the probability of being here for at least another five hours, taking photos as a break sounded pretty fabulous. I really, really like how this turned out, and it's certainly brightened my morning. :-)
As i mentioned earlier in my previous post, they are parts of the wooden planks pathway where water flows underneath it. At certain sections, the water level rose higher till you can see the water coming through the gaps.
The above shot is part of the route in the Plitvice National Park in Croatia - one of the first registered natural sites of the UNESCO World Heritage. Also famous for its green and turqoise crystal clear waters and its 16 cascading lakes.
Taking pictures, especially long exposure shots, was quite a challenge. First of all, there were a lot of people walking on these pathways. It took quite some time till the pathways were clear from walking tourists. Even after they walked past you, the vibration of the planks created while they were walking away will surely contribute to a shaky image. That means i had to wait a long time till the path was clear and at the same time had ample time to take long exposures without any vibrations interference coming from the people walking behind me. STAY AWAY from big school trip groups. They will purposely stomp while walking on the planks and sometimes deliberately make themselves to be in the frame of the shot. It can be annoying at times. The second problem was, the pathway was quite narrow. Once i set up the tripod, it was quite hard for people to get through and if they do, the probability of them accidentally hitting one of tripod's legs is very likely, which will then result, also, in blurry images. And if they were people coming, long exposure shots will definitely cause some traffic holdup. But they were a couple of tourist who waited patiently while i was taking pictures. My deepest gratitude for your patience and kindness to those who had visited Plitvice Lakes on the 1st of June and had waited for a photographer to take his long exposure shots.
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Shot with Tokina 11-16 mm @11.5 mm
Aperture f/8 | 17 sec. | ISO 200
C5A2 "Chernobyl" Mk2 Heavy Tank
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"The Apocalypse Begins With ME!"
The C5A2 "Chernobyl" is a massive beast. It empolys twin heavy calibre cannons and twin AP/AT missile pods, along with a 20mm autocannon and twin ATGMs.
It is extremely heavy and employs a quad track configuration for rough terrain and absolute awesomeness.
It's known to be almost indestructible by ground forces, earning the nickname "Kaschei Besmertniy", a character from a Russian folk tale.
It employs the same armour as any other UT tank, it just has two times more of it.
The first tier is the composite armour. It consists of basic armour shell with an insert of alternating layers of aluminum and plastics and a controlled deformation section.
The second tier is the Kontakt-5 ERA (explosive reactive armor). It severely reduces the blow from kinetic projectiles. They are in the form of blocks on the turret and body or as ERA plates underneath steel outer covering. It results in much better protection than simple steel armour as featured on many other non-UT tanks.
The third tier is a Shtora countermeasures suite. This system includes two IR "dazzlers" on the front/top of the turret in the shape of blocks, four Laser warning receivers, two 3D6 aerosol grenade discharging systems and a computerized control system. The Shtora-1 warns the tank's crew when the tank has been 'painted' by a weapon-guidance laser and automatically activates the aerosol grenade launchers, effectively jamming the incoming missile. The aerosol grenades are used to mask the tank from laser rangefinders and designators as well as the optics of other weapons systems.
For passive guidance rocket systems, IR dazzlers create a blinding field of infrared light, "blinding" the rocket as it's IR isn't visible anymore.
The Arena active countermeasures suite consist of a computer, incoming projectile warning sensors, and shrapnel launchers all around the tank hull. It detects an incoming projectile, and sends out a stream of shrapnel to meet the incoming projectile. It destroys the projectile while leaving the armour intact.
Powered by a hybrid diesel/electric engine. Fast, has good suspension, and is able to submerge completely into water without leaks. Employs an autoloader.
It has it's own air search radar, allowing it to use SAMs standalone. 3 kilometer range.
The tanks are also fitted with nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) protection equipment. It includes a mine disabling kit. The EMT-7 electromagnetic-counter mine system is installed: the EMT-7 emits an electromagnetic pulse to disable magnetic mines and disrupt electronics before the tank reaches them. The Nakidka signature reduction suite is also equipped. Nakidka is designed to reduce the probabilities of an object to be detected by Infrared, Thermal, Radar-Thermal, and Radar bands.
All tanks are installed with night vision and infrared cameras, with direct feed into screens inside the tank.
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GC Cost: 9600 Credits (Tier 1)
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Inspiration from Command and Conquer 1 Mammoth Mk1 Heavy Tank
BTR-90 Bronnetransportyor "Ubiitsa" (Bronnetransportyor - Armoured Transporter) (Ubiitsa - Assassin)
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A heavy APC, with tank features.
It is armed with a 50mm main cannon, twin side mounted 20mm AA/Anti-personnel autocannons, ATGM, and a coaxial MG. Also, it has it's own air search radar, so the tank can venture on it's own and still use it's autocannons accurately up to a 3 kilometer radius.
It's ATGM is effective up to 1 km, and is used on both enemy armoured vehicles and low flying targets such as helicopters.
As with most UT tanks (and some APCs), it features a three-tier protection system.
The first tier is the composite armour. It consists of basic armour shell with an insert of alternating layers of aluminum and plastics and a controlled deformation section.
The second tier is the Kontakt-5 ERA (explosive reactive armor). It severely reduces the blow from kinetic projectiles. They are in the form of blocks on the turret and body or as ERA plates underneath steel outer covering. It results in much better protection than simple steel armour as featured on many other non-UT tanks.
The third tier is a Shtora countermeasures suite. This system includes two IR "dazzlers" on the front of the turret in the shape of blocks, four Laser warning receivers, two 3D6 aerosol grenade discharging systems and a computerized control system. The Shtora-1 warns the tank's crew when the tank has been 'painted' by a weapon-guidance laser and automatically activates the aerosol grenade launchers, effectively jamming the incoming missile. The aerosol grenades are used to mask the tank from laser rangefinders and designators as well as the optics of other weapons systems.
For passive guidance rocket systems, IR dazzlers create a blinding field of infrared light, "blinding" the rocket as it's IR isn't visible anymore.
Powered by a hybrid diesel/electric engine. Fast, has good suspension, and is amphibious. Total speed of 60 km/h on land, 10 km/h in water.
The APCs are also fitted with nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) protection equipment. It includes a mine disabling kit. The EMT-7 electromagnetic-counter mine system is installed: the EMT-7 emits an electromagnetic pulse to disable magnetic mines and disrupt electronics before the tank reaches them. The Nakidka signature reduction suite is also equipped. Nakidka is designed to reduce the probabilities of an object to be detected by Infrared, Thermal, Radar-Thermal, and Radar bands.
All APCs are installed with night vision and infrared cameras, with direct feed into screens inside the APC.
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Cost: 2,000 GC Credits
Taken in Leicestershire, I was visiting because a ♂ Common Scoter was seen the day before, I knew it was a longshot has Scoters migrate at night so the probability of it still being there was quite small, but there was a long stay bird that I could spend my time with.
We didn't find the Scoter but the Ring-necked duck was very obliging and the closest that I had seen it.
The light was very variable as you can tell by the differences in the water colour, but a very enjoyable couple of hours.
When the R-nD was diving this came into view.
A solitary Southern Rockhopper Penguin (Eudyptes chrysocome) comes hopping over a ridge as it makes its way from rookery to the sea. In all probability there was a change of the guard at this penguin's nest and now it is going out to sea to feed. Image taken on Pebble Island in the Falkland Islands.
The Black Swan Theory or "Theory of Black Swan Events" was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: 1) the disproportionate role of high-impact, hard to predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology, 2) the non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to their very nature of small probabilities) and 3) the psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs. Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem", the "Black Swan Theory" (capitalized) refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.
This creation is a tribute to Julian Assange from Wikileaks. Activist, Fighter for the Truth, warrior against the establishment. He is the Black Swan.
Julian Assange has placed a small encrypted file entitled Insurance History on the Swedish Server of Pirate Bay (specialist in the illegal download of music and film music). On Twitter, he recommends that his followers download the file and await his instructions…
T-120 "Moskva" (Moscow) MBT
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The T-120 Moskva MBT is a state of the art tank equipped with the latest gadgets the world can provide in 2020.
Armed with a large calibre main gun and guided ATGMs on either side. Employs a SAM if air units are too pesky, and the newest AI controlled 20mm autocannon and machinegun turret mounted on top of the tank.
As with most UT tanks, it features a three-tier protection system.
The first tier is the composite armour. It consists of basic armour shell with an insert of alternating layers of aluminum and plastics and a controlled deformation section.
The second tier is the Kontakt-5 ERA (explosive reactive armor). It severely reduces the blow from kinetic projectiles. They are in the form of blocks on the turret and body or as ERA plates underneath steel outer covering. It results in much better protection than simple steel armour as featured on many other non-UT tanks.
The third tier is a Shtora countermeasures suite. This system includes two IR "dazzlers" on the front/top of the turret in the shape of blocks, four Laser warning receivers, two 3D6 aerosol grenade discharging systems and a computerized control system. The Shtora-1 warns the tank's crew when the tank has been 'painted' by a weapon-guidance laser and automatically activates the aerosol grenade launchers, effectively jamming the incoming missile. The aerosol grenades are used to mask the tank from laser rangefinders and designators as well as the optics of other weapons systems.
For passive guidance rocket systems, IR dazzlers create a blinding field of infrared light, "blinding" the rocket as it's IR isn't visible anymore.
The Arena active countermeasures suite consist of a computer, incoming projectile warning sensors, and shrapnel launchers all around the tank hull. It detects an incoming projectile, and sends out a stream of shrapnel to meet the incoming projectile. It destroys the projectile while leaving the armour intact.
Powered by a hybrid diesel/electric engine. Fast, has good suspension, and is able to submerge completely into water without leaks. Employs an autoloader.
It has it's own air search radar, allowing it to use SAMs standalone. 3 kilometer range.
The tanks are also fitted with nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) protection equipment. It includes a mine disabling kit. The EMT-7 electromagnetic-counter mine system is installed: the EMT-7 emits an electromagnetic pulse to disable magnetic mines and disrupt electronics before the tank reaches them. The Nakidka signature reduction suite is also equipped. Nakidka is designed to reduce the probabilities of an object to be detected by Infrared, Thermal, Radar-Thermal, and Radar bands.
All tanks are installed with night vision and infrared cameras, with direct feed into screens inside the tank.
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Cost: 6,000 GC Credits (7,200 GC Credits - Tier 1)
During the winter season, we enjoy sunny days with a high probability like this picture.
We can find Mt.Fuji clearly even from Tokyo and the view of it makes us relaxed.
But it's cold …
Now, flowers and myself are waiting for warm season…;)
Rolleiflex 2.8F xenotar
Kodak PORTRA
Chiba, Japan
The somewhat unprepossessing small town of Coldstream in Scotland lies on the north bank of the River Tweed in Berwickshire, while Northumberland (and England) lies on the south bank. In all probability very few would have heard of this town were it not the home of the Coldstream Guards, which dates back to 1650 when it was founded by General George Monck. It is the oldest regiment in continuous active service in Britain's Regular Army.
For further details see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coldstream_Guards
This is the way it goes when things are put in the way of moving water. It get splashy, water breaks into smallest droplets and keeps on moving, pressing into smallest spaces while carrying its load of salt and stickiness. Water may simply follows the rules of nature but the onus is on you to learn how it works to foresee what may happen next.
By the law of probabilities, somewhere out there is a rogue
wave coming your way.
Picture - outing in Marbella, Spain.