View allAll Photos Tagged Predictive
... a sign in Guadalajara spotted by Ken Bauer who suggested it in response to Audrey Watters talk on "The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Issue a Press Release"--
hackeducation.com/2016/11/02/futures
It also helps to pass out Johnnie Walker when doing that?
An online survey of a nationally representative sample of U.S. men aged 18–40 assessed trait predictors of social networking site use as well as two forms of visual self-presentation: editing one’s image in photographs posted on social networking sites (SNSs) and posting “selfies,” or pictures users take of themselves. We examined the Dark Triad (i.e., narcissism, Machiavellianism, and psychopathy) and trait self-objectification as predictors. Self-objectification and narcissism predicted time spent on SNSs. Narcissism and psychopathy predicted the number of selfies posted, whereas narcissism and self-objectification predicted editing photographs of oneself posted on SNSs. We discuss selective self-presentation processes on social media and how these traits may influence interpersonal relationship development in computer-mediated communication.
The proliferation of social media in day-to-day life has raised numerous questions about how individuals present themselves in these arenas. The present study examined the associations of narcissism and self-esteem with the posting of self-photographs (“selfies”) on a popular photo sharing social networking site (i.e., Instagram). Participants were 128 undergraduate students (19 males, 109 females) ranging in age from 18 to 43 (M = 20.46, SD = 3.59). Selfies were coded according to their frequency relative to participants’ nonselfie posts and their apparent themes (i.e., physical appearance, activity/event/location, affiliation with others, collage, other/undifferentiated). The hypothesized relations of narcissism and self-esteem with the posting of selfies independent of theme were not significant. However, there was a significant relation between some dimensions of narcissism and specific categories of selfies (e.g., vulnerable narcissism with physical appearance selfies). The limitations of the present study, particularly in terms of sampling and other issues that may influence online presentations, as well as the implications for future research on social media photographic displays are discussed.
“Selfie” is not just word of the year, but also the mainstay of postings on social media sites such as Instagram. With the prevalence of camera-equipped smartphones the posting of selfies has reached epidemic levels – even the funerals of national leaders aren’t exempt. But is there a psychological fall-out?
Two studies examined narcissism and commitment in ongoing romantic relationships. In Study 1, narcissism was found to be negatively related to commitment. Mediational analyses further revealed that this was primarily a result of narcissists’ perception of alternatives to their current relationship. Study 2 replicated these findings with an additional measure of alternatives. Again, narcissists reported less commitment to their ongoing romantic relationship. This link was mediated by both perception of alternatives and attention to alternative dating partners. The utility of an interdependence approach to understanding the role of personality in romantic relationships is discussed.
A new study by Florida State University academics Jessica Ridgway and Russell Clayton found that people who were more satisfied with their body image posted more selfies to Instagram – confidently showing off, you might say. But in turn, they reported experiencing more conflict with their romantic partner – such as jealous arguments about attention others had paid their photos online – and poorer relationship quality. So does this mean that Instagram selfies are bad for relationships?
The study’s authors speculate that when one partner frequently posts attractive selfies, the other partner may feel jealous or threatened. This may lead to excessive monitoring of the other’s Instagram feed, which means they see even more of the attention the photos receive from followers, potentially winding them up still further. This could potentially lead to greater conflict, cheating, or a break-up.
Another way to account for the potentially relationship-damaging effects of posting selfies is that they may simply alienate other people. There is a tendency for people to report less intimacy and emotional support in their relationships with people who are selfie-posting addicts. One reason why people may withdraw from these relationships is because they perceive the excessive selfie-posting as indicative of a narcissistic streak.
Now, the correlational design of Ridgway and Clayton’s study means that we cannot say for sure whether the posting of Instagram selfies actually caused the other romantic partner to feel insecure or alienated, thus instigating a downward relationship spiral. Rather, it could be that an underlying personality trait – such as narcissism – caused some people not only to be more satisfied with their body image and to post more selfies, but also to have poorer-quality relationships.
Narcissism is characterised by grandiose self-regard, a need for attention and admiration, vanity, a sense of entitlement and an exploitative attitude towards others. Narcissists’ preoccupation with their body image and craving to be admired could be one reason why they are more addicted to social media and post more selfies.
Along these lines, one study found that narcissistic men posted more selfies and were also more likely to use photo-editing software or filters to make themselves look better. Other studies have found a link between narcissism and selfie-obsession in both men and women. Narcissists don’t just post more selfies, they also post more Facebook status updates about their diet or exercise routine, consistent with their preoccupation with their physical appearance.
But alongside their vain and attention-seeking behaviour, narcissists also tend to experience poorer-quality relationships. A recent study found that couples reported a greater decline in relationship quality over the first four years of their marriage when the wife was a narcissist (interestingly the same result was not found when the husband was a narcissist).
These couples had not reported a decline in their relationship within the first six months of marriage; in fact, narcissists are often viewed positively by partners at the beginning of a relationship – and narcissists themselves may view a new relationship as an opportunity for ego validation. Over time, however, the narcissist’s low commitment, self-centredness and antagonism may chip away at relationship satisfaction.
Similarly, a narcissist’s selfie-posting may be viewed as attractive or endearing in the early stages of a relationship, but may become increasingly irritating as the relationship progresses.
So it’s not yet possible to conclusively establish whether posting selfies in itself damages relationships or whether selfie-posting and problems in relationships are symptomatic of an underlying trait such as narcissism. Further research may prove the link, but until then, you might want to consider not just the message your obsessive posting of selfies give to others, but also the potential damage it could cause to your love life.
I understand having a couple of pictures of yourself online, but I see a lot of people posting 5 or 10 of themselves everyday. The whole concept is just stupid to me. People don't realize that you come off as being full of yourself. Who has time to sit around and take pictures of yourself and post them online. Get a life. Get a hobby. No one cares about your pictures, you're just fishing for compliments. How self obsessed can you be?
So goes the synopsis for a new sitcom: “Selfie,” set to air tonight on ABC (note the overt nod to Eliza Doolittle, given the Pygmalian plot-line). Whether or not the show ends up connecting with audiences, it speaks to a cultural moment and an ongoing cultural concern, echoed in countless articles (including many featured in Psychology Today!) and humorous videos (like the “No Selfie Zone" prank). Everywhere you turn, someone is worrying about or debating the perceived epidemic levels of vanity and narcissism thought to motivate selfies and other forms of self-oriented social media behavior. However, framing the issue as one of superficial self-aggrandizement may be neither accurate nor useful. Here are at least three reasons why:
Social norms: A basic and perhaps obvious explanation for the selfie phenomenon is that we take selfies because we can. And, relatedly, because other people do. The ubiquity of photo-snapping and photo-sharing technology has made sending and posting selfies incredibly easy to do. The same technological advances that allow us to post our own pictures also allow us to see what other people are posting. Even without a strong motivation to post a selfie, we may be moved by the social norms that pervade sites like Facebook and Twitter (and Tinder and Instagram and Snapchat and…). Social learning theory suggests, just as it sounds, that we learn efficiently not just by doing but by watching others do. Further, we are more likely to emulate a given behavior when it is socially rewarded. Watching other people post selfies and receive praise or “likes” not only makes us aware that we ourselves can do the same thing, but it also may encourage us to think we SHOULD do the same thing.
It is not that people don’t vary in their likelihood of posting selfies (even the most informal Facebook poll indicates vast differences in selfie tendencies and attitudes); as with any kind of human social behavior we each fall on a motivational spectrum. However, there are powerful norms in place at the moment that may overdetermine any one person’s likelihood of posting a selfie. Social psychology teaches us to beware the “fundamental attribution error”—the tendency to underestimate the power of situational forces when explaining another person’s behavior. It is also easy to commit what some call the “ultimate attribution error” which is the FAE writ large, our tendency to characterize entire social groups in dispositional ways without appreciating situational determinants of their behavior (as in “Generation Me”). When we focus on the broader social context of selfie culture, we might even consider it rather poignant that we seem to fashion our latest tools and tricks into social and self-relevant means of communication. This brings me to the next explanation…
Social motivations: We also take selfies because we are inherently social creatures. We evolved in groups that enabled us to survive and flourish. We survived because we learned to communicate, to share, and to show. In step with these social roots, we developed an inherent need to be seen, valued, and connected to others. Famed psychologist, thinker, and writer, William James (1892) noted: “we have an innate propensity to get ourselves noticed, and noticed favorably, by our kind” (p. 190). He goes on to suggest that if we were to go unnoticed by those around us we would experience “a kind of rage and impotent despair…from which the cruelest bodily tortures would be a relief” (p. 190). If you doubt the rage and despair part of the story, you need only watch the vaguely heart-breaking developmental psychology videos of mothers instructed to go blank after animatedly interacting with their infants. If you find the "bodily tortures" bit hyperbolic, you might consider recent forays into social neuroscience showing that social rejection activates brain regions typically associated with physical pain. We are wired to need to be seen and to belong.
Our earliest mirrors in life are, in fact, other people. We come to understand our identities and emotions, in part, by seeing them reflected in the eyes of our caregivers (for better and worse). As we mature, we ideally become less reliant on social mirrors to derive a sense of self and worth, although the tendency to use others as a “looking glass” (as Cooley termed it in 1902) does not entirely disappear. As James (1892, again) notes of adulthood (sexist language alert): “a man has as many social selves as there are individuals who recognize and carry an image of him around in their mind” (p. 190). One major update that our current “selfie moment” affords is that the images of us that are carried in other people’s minds are literal. Our need to be seen, then, has become increasingly played out on a visual stage rather than a metaphoric or emotional one. The next explanation is tied to this reality and begs the question, is this a good thing?
Social anxieties: Finally, the notion that selfies are primarily shallow, self-promotional phenomena may obscure the painful anxieties that can motivate and be perpetuated by social media use. Indeed, even narcissism (which has been linked to increased photo-posting on social media sites) can be conceptualized as a need for excessive validation. Some research suggests that narcissists may have low implicit (or unconscious) self-esteem that runs counter to their more overt high self-esteem. Still other research suggests that narcissists are more reactive to social rejection than they may let on, according to their brain reactivity. And still other research finds that both chronic and daily insecurities about relationships rather than boastful delight underlies more frequent relationship posts on Facebook. My own related research on fame suggests that both narcissism and the need to belong motivate interests such as being on the cover of a magazine or being recognized in public. Even the most seemingly ego-driven fantasies are more complicated than they appear.
Since belonging needs are so fundamental, some scholars have noted that self-esteem may have evolved, in part, to help us gauge our relative standing in our social group. (Others have daringly suggested that our pursuit of self-esteem itself is a liability for emotional health and well-being.) We may now have entered a phase of “selfie-esteem”--a handy concept that already has an urban dictionary definition: “Taking an excessive amount of selfies to boost one's image of themselves” with an accompanying example, “Jen's Instagram is full of selfies but its just because she needs to boost her selfie-esteem.”). The gender of the hypothetical person is likely not random here. Anxiety about physical and sexual attractiveness may be particularly problematic for young girls and women who are already subject to ubiquitous sexualization and objectification experiences by others and the mass media. The encouragement young girls and women receive to constantly look their best (and a certain media-perpetuated definition of best) is often incredibly blatant. Is it any wonder, then, that "Am I Pretty" videos are cropping up? It seems to be insult to injury to label young girls “vain” for trying to accommodate (perhaps control) the relentless directives to focus on achieving beauty at all costs. Again, we are prone to underestimate social context and pressure.
Okay, so all three explanations are starting to run together: cultural and technological norms influence the particular ways we are attempting to meet our social and psychological needs. For better and worse. So what to do?
My students describe how social media can both boost and depress their self-image and social life, making them feel overly vulnerable to approval from their peers and overly concerned with how they are presenting themselves online. They struggle to find the balance between being addicted to their phones and being “off the grid.” We love to communicate, to share, to express ourselves, and to be seen “favorably.” But we have to guard against a tendency to constantly see ourselves from the outside in, and from becoming overly preoccupied with our reflection in the literal mirrors we send out to others. Doing so puts us at risk for various emotional and cognitive disruptions-whether decreasing our experiences of “flow” (optimal engagement in an absorbing activity linked to well-being and happiness), our adherence to internal goals and standards, or our ability to contribute to causes larger than ourselves (also, happily, associated with greater well-being and happiness). Ironically, the very human and adaptive motivations that drive our selfie habits may also spiral into maladaptive behaviors and outcomes. Perhaps the best we can do is remind each other to periodically step back, unplug, take breaks, take deep breaths, and think more about how an experience feels than how it, and we, might look.
www.psychologytoday.com/blog/mirror-mirror/201409/three-r...
As predicted, the vast amount of late 2018 batches of Matchbox filling the pegs of the newly established One Below are now disappearing and being steadily replaced by plastic generic Zuru models. Bleurgh!!
I thought it was too good to be true for Matchbox to return to the UK market via this discount chain but we might see some more in the future and to be fair to them they only tend to get stock on an ad hoc basis anyway.
There was nothing on their pegs which hadn't already originally appeared at ASDA some months earlier but at half the price and in long cards there was little excuse in not buying a shedload more ;-)
I eagerly snapped up several more of these crisp and clean looking 2018 Nissan Leaf electric cars. Modern, relevant and beautifully detailed and finished they put any crappy HTI and Zuru generics to shame! Mint and boxed.
Weather reports predict the so called "Beast From The East" is due to revisit the UK over the next few days, today the 16th of March 2018 I visited Collieston Bay, its the first time I have witnessed the impact unusual weather has had on the area, it really was exhilarating and offered great photo opportunities.
Collieston is a small former fishing village on the North Sea coast in Aberdeenshire, Scotland. The village lies just north of the Sands of Forvie Special Protection Area, between Cruden Bay and Newburgh.
The earliest recorded history of Collieston is of the arrival of St Ternan, a Columban monk on a mission to convert the local picts to Christianity. There is, however, evidence that people lived here during much earlier times.
Collieston was established as a fishing village by the 16th century, and it provides the first safe harbour in over fifteen miles of beachesand dunes stretching north from Aberdeen.
Fishing for herring, haddock, whiting and codflourished in the 17th century and 18th century and was the foundation of Collieston's economy. The village became known for 'Collieston Speldings', salted and sun-dried haddock and whiting, a popular delicacy throughout Britain. As drift netting developed during the mid 19th century, the fishing began to decline and the focus of the industry shifted to places like Peterhead because the harbour at Collieston was too small to safely accommodate the larger boats needed.
The numerous sea caves in the nearby cliffs, and small coves with shingle beaches provided ideal terrain for smugglers. In the late 18th century it was estimated by the Excise that up to 8000 gallons of foreign spirits were being illegally landed in the area every month. In 1798, the notorious village smuggler, Phillip Kennedy, was killed by a blow from an exciseman's cutlass. His grave and tombstone still stands in the village graveyard.
A ship from the Spanish Armada, the Santa Caterina, carrying arms for the Earl of Erroll is said to have sunk just off the rocky point of St Catherine's Dub in 1594. In retaliation for the Earl's involvement in the Catholic plot against him, James VI blew up the Earl's castle which stood on the cliffs, a mile north of Collieston. The Earl went on to rebuild Slains Castle, six miles further up the coast, in 1597.
Collieston is now mainly a commuter village serving Aberdeen, and is largely given over to tourists during the summer months.
No, I'm not predicting a calamity, although there seems to be an inordinate amount of doom and gloom out there at the moment. Nor am I saying that the end of the world can be found along this lane...
Indeed, this particular road is within the M25 (for non-Brits, that is the orbital motorway surrounding London). It is just 16 km north-north-east of the Houses of Parliament.
The original meaning of the term 'World's End' was as a whimsical name for a dwelling or piece of land considered to be in a remote spot or situated on the boundary of a parish. This World's End lay on the boundary between the parishes of Enfield and Edmonton when it was established as a farm in 1777. Back in those days, most people in rural parishes didn't have the time or inclination to leave their parishes. Indeed, my grandfathers grew up in adjacent parishes in rural north-east Scotland in the 1890s but didn't meet until they were in Glasgow in the 1950s!
Between 1879 and 1882, residential buildings were constructed along Slade's Hill, at the northern border of World's End. The site of the farm was purchased by Enfield's local board in 1889 to build an isolation hospital. Further development took place in the 1930s, when residential roads were built off Slade's Hill and the still-standing local pub was first opened.
Today the hospital has been replaced by a new(ish) housing estate and the name of the road is just about all that remains of this particular 'World's End.'
Here is my most recent find, a 1960 Philco Predicta Siesta B&W TV in gold! Purchased from its original owner no less, with original stand too.
Predicting a warming trend! Cumulus humilis -- flat-bottomed and puffy like cotton. They are found scattered randomly through the sky in separate little piles, and they are said to indicate “fair weather,” meaning no precipitation and moderate temperatures. They get the name humilis (meaning humble, lowly, small) because they are the tiny, non-threatening Cumulus.
On the 4th & 5th October 2016, leading international thinkers in the areas of Data, Predictive Models, Technology and Decision making gathered at the RDS, Dublin, for Predict 2016. The speakers, many of whom I managed to photograph, discussed the latest progress in Predictive Modelling and its future – from Data to Software and Hardware technology, plus Predictive Modelling methods and the best examples of Data-driven Decision-making.
The organisers kindly invited me to the Predict event at the RDS but as I arrived a bit early I took few backstage or behind the scenes shots. In case your are interested I used a Sony A7RM2 coupled with a Sony 29-135 full frame lens. The lens does attract a lot of attention which does allow me to to have interesting people … volunteers, students from Brazil, photographers etc. Of course my lens did not attract as mush attention as the two cars [especially the DeLorean DMC-12. DMC-12s were primarily intended for the American market. All production models were therefore left-hand drive. Evidence survives from as early as April 1981, however, which indicates that the DeLorean Motor Company was aware of the need to produce a right-hand drive version to supply to world markets such as the United Kingdom, Ireland, India, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. My contacts in Belfast claim that 16 right-hand drive factory-authorised DeLoreans were produced.
On what was predicted to be one of the worst days of the year for the leaf fall an extra Rail Head Treatment Train (RHTT) runs covering approximately half of the planned route before returning to Tonbridge Engineers Sidings just over an hour early.
According to Realtime Trains the route and timings were;
Tonbridge Engineers Sdn...0730.............0730....................RT
Tonbridge [TON] A................0732/0742..NoRep/0740.....2E
Paddock Wood 2...................0750.............0747....................3E
Maidstone West [MDW] 1.....0816..............0806.................10E
Cuxton [CUX]..........................0834.............0827....................7E
Strood [SOO] 3.......................0841/0847...0836/0839........8E
Cuxton [CUX] 2......................0851..............0843....................8E
Maidstone West [MDW] 2....0908.............0905...................3E
Paddock Wood 2...................0925.............0920 1/2.............4E
Tonbridge [TON] U...............0935.............0934.....................1E
Sevenoaks [SEV] 2................0947/0953..NoRep/0953.....RT
Orpington [ORP] 4.................1002..............1003.....................1L
Petts Wood Junction............1004..............1006....................2L
Bickley Junction[XLY]..........1006..............1007......................1L
Shortlands Junction..............1012...............1012.....................RT
Beckenham Junction ..........1017................1013 1/2...............3E
Beckenham Junction 3........1028..............1023.....................5E
Shortlands Junction..............1030..............1026....................4E
Bickley Junction[XLY]..........1033 1/2........1032......................1E
Bickley Junction[XLY]..........1130 1/2.........1237..................66L
Swanley [SAY] 2.....................1139 1/2.........1039..................60E
Otford Junction[XOT]...........1150 1/2.........1049..................61E
Maidstone East [MDE] 2.......1213 1/2.........1138...................85E
Otford Junction[XOT]...........1325..............1219...................66E
Swanley [SAY] 1......................1336...............1227 1/2...........68E
St Mary Cray Junction..........1340..............1232..................68E
Swanley [SAY] 4.....................1355..............1243..................72E
Otford Junction[XOT]...........1405..............1302..................63E
Sevenoaks [SEV] 3................1414................1311 1/2.............62E
Tonbridge [TON] 2................1423/1423....1326/NoRep...57E
Tonbridge Engineers Sdn...1426..............1330..................56E
The worst job in England would be to be a weather forecaster. The weather changes so much and can't believe its in the middle of summer.
Weymouth, Uk
Pastry Counter Offerings: As predicted by modern statistical mandibular number crunching, this Fruit and Berry Tart takes up about 10% of the shelf space of the planet. If chosen, be sure to wear a bib, as these items tend to be messy when eaten, or at least so I have been told. Some say that this particular pie choses you, sort of like a feral pussy adopting an owner who will stroke it. I have never walked on the wild side to pay for this particular oral delight. This baker obviously shelves this pie with Pride. As this particular supermarket primarily serves the Russian community, it's appropriate that about 10% of this creation contains blueberries. In Russian slang, gay guys are referred to as being 'blue'. Don't ask me why. I only writes it, as I hears it.
We highly recommend shopping at this chain of stores. During our last visit a security guard asked me to delete a photo of their ice-cream display cabinet that I'd taken after enjoying one of their lates. He was extremely polite and professional. I immediately complied and there was no further problem. As such, I will not photograph their stores any more as they have implied that request. I hadn't seen any signage but they do have security guards patrolling as theft must be a problem with these top end products. It's too bad about their photo policy as the Yummy Market stores have top of the line products which are well displayed. Their staff are generally cheery to very friendly. We have spent a couple thousand dollars in total at their two stores, and have brought them a couple dozen customers from our personal recommendation, and perhaps even from one or two more from our Flickr photos.
As predicted, a temperature plunge overnight here in Toronto: bitter dry cold, light winds and crisp light. This is a 6 second exposure, best viewed large...View On White
As predicted last night, the indifferent Friday weather meant a sunset was out of the question, so I went someplace else for a shot.
1W96 leaves Rhyl, DVT 82307 leading, 67002 pushing. Those semaphores are now on borrowed time, resignalling along the coast starts in less than 12 months. The up through line at Rhyl station is to be restored as well, this will if nothing else balance this view up...
1 August 2014
...predicted weather forecast says thunderstorms on the way?
* Vivitar Wide-Angle 28mm f/2.5 (Kino/Kiron) lens
* Fotasy FD/FL-EOSM lens adapter
Under the predicted grey skies, 57314 & 316 (t&t) approached Bayford at 0940 on 06/04/19 with 1Z70, the 0614 Westcoast Railways charter from Skegness to Salisbury, which was formed of 10 coaches.
For great photographs and the low down on the G20 Summit, Protests and Demonstrations visit www.ravishlondon.com/g20
The world faces a problem: recession and a spiraling fall in trade. The Economist puts it like this, “Trade is contracting again, at a rate unmatched in the post-war period. This week the World Trade Organisation (WTO) predicted that the volume of global merchandise trade would shrink by 9% this year. This will be the first fall in trade flows since 1982. Between 1990 and 2006 trade volumes grew by more than 6% a year, easily outstripping the growth rate of world output, which was about 3% (see chart 1). Now the global economic machine has gone into reverse: output is declining and trade is tumbling at a faster pace. The turmoil has shaken commerce in goods of all sorts, bought and sold by rich and poor countries alike.” According to the Economist, “The immediate cause of shrinking trade is plain: global recession means a collapse in demand. The credit crunch adds an additional squeeze, thanks to an estimated shortfall of $100 billion in trade finance, which lubricates 90% of world trade.”
According to the Guardian, “On Thursday 2 April Gordon Brown is going to host the G20 summit in London. Leaders from 22 countries will be at the summit. The G20 is an organisation for finance ministers and central bankers, who in the past met once a year to discuss international cooperation in finance. There are 19 countries who are members: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The 20th member is the European Union, which is represented by whichever country holds the EU presidency (currently, it's the Czech Republic). These countries represent 90% of global GDP, 80% of world trade and two thirds of the world's population. The IMF and the World Bank also attend G20 meetings, although technically the London event isn't a normal G20 meeting.”
This G20 meeting will be for the leaders of all G20 countries. According to the Guardian the policy agenda developed by the last G20 meeting “did not in fact go much beyond pre-existing international initiatives that had recently been developed in more technocratic international bodies.” According to the Guardian, “On the London summit website, the British government has explained what it hopes to achieve. At the summit, countries need to come together to enhance global coordination in order to help restore global economic growth. World leaders must make three commitments:
• First, to take whatever action is necessary to stabilise financial markets and enable families and businesses to get through the recession.
• Second, to reform and strengthen the global financial and economic system to restore confidence and trust.
• Third, to put the global economy on track for sustainable growth.
Gordon Brown has argued that the world must avoid protectionism. According to the Economist, “The World Bank says that, since the G20 leaders last met in November in Washington, DC, 17 of their countries have restricted trade. Some have raised tariffs, as Russia did on second-hand cars and India did on steel. Citing safety, China has banned imports of Irish pork and Italian brandy. Across the world, there has been a surge in actions against “dumping”—the sale of exports, supposedly at a loss, in order to undermine the competition. Governments everywhere are favouring locally made goods.” The Economist also says, “Kei-Mu Yi, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, argues that trade has fallen so fast and so uniformly around the world largely because of the rise of “vertical specialisation”, or global supply chains. This contributed to trade’s rapid expansion in recent decades. Now it is adding to the rate of shrinkage. When David Ricardo argued in the early 19th century that comparative advantage was the basis of trade, he conceived of countries specialising in products, like wine or cloth. But Mr Yi points out that countries now specialise not so much in final products as in steps in the process of production.”
Protectionism in itself sounds bad – but it is a policy option available and used in all political economies – including the most liberal. Protectionism can also lead to a more self-sustainable economy, and can lead to the internal development of an economy, which means the economy is less reliant and dependent on external sources of finance. Development will be slower, but it can be more secure and sustainable. It is likely that if countries do operate protectionist policies it will be a short-term opportunist and populist response to workers and unions, but it could be seen as an alternative economic model of development. It worked in Brazil and Argentina during the 1960s and 1970s for a while, until a more neo-liberal and external finance model was preferred.
The Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was reported on Channel 4 News to have told Mr Brown the crisis was caused by "white blue eyed people". This overtly racist remark has been noted, but there has been no visible backlash. It is interesting how the whole agenda about racism never applies to the dominant one, i.e. you can racially slur white people, and white people with blue eyes without anyone batting an eye lid, whereas if you racially slur other ethnic groups you can find yourself battered. I find this state of affairs deeply offensive to the human race in general, and very patronizing to those groups who don’t come from the dominant ethnic group (i.e. its almost to say the whole anti-racist thing is a way of patting you on the head and saying there, there – because when it comes to racism we don’t really give a shit – see the way we couldn’t give a f*** if you slur our own dominant white ethnic group).
The reality is that the summit will represent a reshuffling of position, support and dependencies between the world’s twenty richest countries. Spectators are expecting China to come out feeling puffed up and proud, given that China has faired relatively in recent years, or so we are led to believe. Meanwhile national demonstrations seem to be focusing our attention to the fact that a different way of working is needed. In fact it will be work as usual – the question is who will come out on top.
In anticipation of the G20 summit a demonstration was held in London. 10,000 were predicted to attend the demonstrations. The police reported 35,000. I was there at the demonstration and I don’t believe I saw 35,000 people walk past Big Ben – and I saw it from start to finish. As one commentator, on the Guardian observed, “Apart from the small contingent of student SWP calling 'One solution, Revolution' and about 20 anarchists making noise the spirit was generally depressed and lacking any anger or sense of direction.” Cognitator joked, “Perhaps the police were adding their number to the protesters. As opposed to taking them away as per usual.”
According to the Guardian, “The Put People First march yesterday was organised by a collaboration of more than 100 trade unions, church groups and charities including ActionAid, Save the Children and Friends of the Earth. The theme was "jobs, justice and climate" and the message was aimed at the world leaders who will be gathering for the G20 summit here this week.”
The march started on the Embankment. When I arrived there I walked around desperately finding somewhere where I could have a piss for free. I tried Starbucks and Costa Cofee, but they seemed to have no toilets, I even tried the stamp collectors fayre a subterranean culture of badly dressed old people, with poor eyesight and even worse posture, which was momentary distraction from my full bladder, but which did not provide the answer to my pressing problem as the toilet door was locked and for staff only. Stephen Moss writing for the Guardian said, “Westminster is not a great place for someone like me, who has a weak bladder, to go on a march. The public loos there cost an outrageous 50p a go. The Socialist Worker magazine-seller next to Embankment tube station is on to this in a flash. "50p to have a piss – a lesson in capitalism," he is soon shouting. Later, I'm pleased to see someone has punched a hole in the wooden sign advertising the price.” In the end I walked all the way to the National Portrait Gallery where you can always be assured a good quality toilet seat.
The Guardian continued, “The marchers, estimated at 35,000 by police, accompanied by brass bands and drummers and a colourful assortment of banners and flags, walked the four miles from Embankment to Hyde Park, where speeches from comedian Mark Thomas and environmental campaigner Tony Juniper, and music from the Kooks, made for a party-like atmosphere.”
The Guardian reported, “A group of fewer than 200 anarchists joined the march and were kept isolated and surrounded by police. Chants of "Burn the bankers!" were the closest anyone came to any show of aggression.’ Yes I witnessed this, it was clear that the anarchists, dressed in black, some of them with scarves covering their faces, generally looked cool as fuck, like some post-nuclear vigilante gang, their black signifying the dark depressing reality from which humanity starts, and the point from which they wish to depart. Whether the police presence was heavy is debatable but they certainly had a line of police accompanying them, whereas no other group were honored with such a presence. Of the anarchists Stephen Moss says, “I fall in with some anarchists halfway through the march – a delightful young Greek called Alex and an Italian, who is happy to talk about Bakunin, but is, I sense, a little suspicious of me. The anarchists march together – with the police flanking them in a way they don't with the rest of the march – and I am intrigued that they never shout slogans or bang drums. Their mission is a serious one.” Moss goes on, “Alex tells me a reporter from the Sunday Times has already approached him to ask why anarchists wear masks. "Work it out for yourself – you're a journalist," he'd told him. "People always ask why we wear masks; they never ask about our ideology," he complains. In essence, that ideology is: power corrupts; all elites will be corrupt; so government should be by the people, for the people – a mass movement of the type they claim is emerging in South America. Hezbollah is also mentioned favourably, a movement they see as developing organically. "Organic" is a key word for anarchists, and it would save a lot of aggro and bad press if they were called organicists rather than anarchists.” Good point. But who wants to be called an organicist? And in any case everything is organic really – its just that some organisms develop in a way we or anarchists done like and some do. To call anarchists, organic is to miss the point, anarachists are like Christian, they dream of a reality which transcends human nature as it is and known. Structure, corruption, self-interest and greed underpin all human activity – the question is not how we can do away with it, but how can we manage it in a fair way.
Stephen Moss wrote about the variety of organizations on the march. He said, “Socialist Worker has a three-point strategy: "Seize their wealth," "Stamp out poverty," "End all wars." Sounds good, but I can't work out exactly who "their" refers to. The Socialist party is hot on slogans, colder on the mechanism by which they are put into practice. The likely outcome to the current crisis still appears to be government by Etonians.” Most of these movements are nothing to do with instituting political change. The people involved in them do not want to genuinely change things. Instead what these groups function as is self-help groups for people, for whatever reason, feel that they have been wronged in life, probably at a personal level, and feeling quite hopeless about their personal wrongs, they want to transpose their personal woe on to a faceless, unintelligible other – the government, the state, the capitalist, the rich and the greedy. Its not so much that socialist workers and anarchists want to change things, they know they are completely ineffectual, and too screwed up and traumatized, too aggressive, unintelligent and incapable of engaging people into a different way of organizing; they just want to shout out to people ‘we hurt’. Fair enough.
The TUC don’t seem to be turning up to do anything more than saying ‘there there’ to threatened workers, and stating the downright bloody obvious to the government. Their message is “The importance of this summit cannot be underestimated. Unemployment and deprivation will grow massively over the next two years unless governments work together. People need to know that there is an international solution to this crisis. If the summit suggests that there is not, many will turn to nationalist and protectionist politics with all that implies for the global economy and world peace.” Mind you they do go on to say that, “But while the immediate response to the crisis will be at the forefront of the leaders' minds, the unprecedented Put People First coalition shows there is a huge appetite for a new economic direction. Thirty years of the increasing dominance of the neo-liberal agenda has got us into this mess. The summit must show that the next 30 years need to be about a renewed era of economic growth based on a much fairer share of the proceeds. One that is environmentally sustainable and one that does not end in the burst of yet another financial bubble.” But what are they really saying? Nothing much.
There is of course something about how all of this is just about having a laugh, getting a kick, getting an emotional fix. There’s something very similar to the way that some of the more violent groups get ready for a rumble with the police and football hooliganism. Football hooligans are much more honest about the emotional kick they get from fighting. The protestors pretend that they are doing it for the people. Whatever the so called reasons, it is clear that a lot of protestors enjoy confrontation. They are much more focused on the enemy and combating the enemy than they are on creating peaceful societies. So Stephen Moss makes the interesting observation, “When the march eventually gets to Hyde Park, the anarchists refuse to join the "TUC bureaucrats" for the official rally and hold their own open-platform meeting at Speakers' Corner, dominated by elderly men in hats who talk less about Bakunin than about beating up the BNP and confronting the police on the streets of Whitechapel. It's all a bit depressing (and expletive-filled – I take serious exception to the denunciation of "Oxbridge cunts"), though I like the fact that the elderly men refuse even to use a megaphone – only the ordinary human voice is organic enough.” The media and police have both hyped the April 2009 marches as like the possible end of the British way of life, of democracy, of capitalism. Nothing could be further from the truth, but its like we all want to will it to happen – we all are looking for excitement – war may be bad but peace is fucking boring – I once read.
The Guardian also reported, “Thomas told the Observer he believed the protest marked "the start of a grassroots movement". He added: "This is a moment. This is the first time people have had a chance to come out on to the streets in a big way." But this is nonsense. This was just an opportunity for a plethora of groups, amongst whom there are more differences, and the only thing that can unite them is a general concern for jobs, justice and climate, which incidentally are three themes that unite most of the country, and all the main political parties, to catch the government at a weak moment, and hope to build up support for whatever cause they have, on the back of the anger and desperation amongst people at this time.
The protest ended up in Hyde Park. I didn’t go, it was too cold and rainy, and although I did aim to walk there via a short-cut through Victoria, I ended up taking refuge in Westminster Cathedral, where I saw another procession, of Catholic priests and altar boys, who were holding a service for the Union of Catholic Mothers. I listened to the Catholic priests, they sounded much more happy and at peace with themselves and their surroundings, than the rankerous socialist bile spitting leaders.
People are blaming the bankers, but there is in actual fact no-one to blame for this. The this needs to be qualified too. The ‘this’ is the fact that people are loosing their jobs, consumption will have to be reduced. It is ironic that it is precisely that people are facing the prospect of lower consumption that they are out on the streets protesting against greedy bankers, it is not so much the greed of the bankers that people resent, so much as the increased consuming power of the bankers that they are envious of. The bankers are not to blame for working within a system, which promoted risky investments, a system which was encouraged and deregulated by politicians who realized that whilst the bubble was growing there were huge financial gains to be made from encouraging bankers to reap the rewards both for themselves but through the state through taxation, and politicians who were encouraged by the people who voted them in, who probably formed the majority of people marching in demonstration and protest today, who voted in the governments believing the deregulation of banks not to be a serious enough issue to vote against a government for, and realizing that even if it was a risk, whilst the bubble was growing, they were happy enough to see their elected government ensuring that the country got a share of the pie. We all contributed to this fucking mess – if you can call it a mess – its only a mess for those who no longer have jobs and cannot consume so much – by voting in the government, who deregulated the banks and encouraged the lending of our money several times over to riskier and riskier ventures which in actual fact were not producing anything of material benefit, but were instead relying on house prices going up and up, as more people poured their money into it. Now we are in deep shit, because Gordon Brown has poured what little remaining money we have, and we have on credit into the black hole – it has simply disappeared.
There are some people who are saying the bankers should pay for the crisis they created. It doesn’t work like that – it works by people putting their money into a bank – and entrusting the bank to invest it wisely. Where the bank looses the money – the original investor looses the money. This creates a motivation on behalf of the investor to invest wisely, e.g. on the basis of what we know right now investing in Barclays rather than Lloyds TSB or the Royal Bank of Scotland. However reality begins to change once one’s livelihood is threatened – now it is solely the banker’s responsibility to have invested the money wisely, the public who invest their money into the banks are seen to be helpless, powerless twits, whose securities should have been looked after by a paternalistic and caring banking sector. So for example, according to Fox New, “Berlin police estimated that around 10,000 people gathered in front of the capital's city hall and more than 1,000 in Frankfurt, Germany's banking capital, for similar demonstrations under the slogan: "We won't pay for your crisis." Its not a crisis – its just that there are now lots of personal crises – the public didn’t bother to check whether their banks were investing their money properly or wisely and now they are paying for it. But the banks aren’t responsible for this – they really aren’t.
We have two problems. The first was created by the fact that banks lent out our money several times over – so we thought the country was several times as wealthy as it actually was. This led to inflationary pressures especially in the housing market – where the same money was lent to several different people – all investing in housing leading to unrealistic housing prices. We now realize we have a fraction of the wealth we thought we had. This creates deflationary pressures – i.e. where everyone has less money prices are reduced. This problem can be solved by creating a soft deflationary landing to a level where the price of labor and goods reflects the value of the money we have not the value of the money we have and we loaned. This means everyone has to accept lower wages – we can either do this peacefully based around a consensus and agreement between corporations, banks, trade unions or governments – or we can do it aggressively – letting perfectly good companies whose workers refuse to take pay cuts go to the wall – and then watch as millions of unemployed people try to reform and reorganize new companies and enterprises.
The second problem is that banks are no longer making such risky investments – so they are not looking to lend their money on to others – which means there is less money to be lent to people – which means less activity and less economy. We have to get used to less activity – but at least the activity will be invested in activities which are genuinely producing material benefit for people – not leading to an apparent generation of wealth – which is the artificial effect of lending x amount of money to people ten times, making it seem that we are ten times as rich as previously – when actual fact we are equally as wealthy – but with prices ten times as high. We should have also let the banks go to the wall – and started again with a heavily regulated banking sector – which was not allowed to lend out peoples’ money irresponsibly. No-one wants to have to feel the pain from this – i.e. the rich bankers who keep their pensions and bonuses, the people who have banked with them who want to keep their savings, and the businesses who are funded by the banks who want to hang on to their business and jobs. So what Gordon Brown is doing, is in the name of the people, funneling money into the banking system, paying for the debts, and thus, keeping the bankers sweet, keeping the investors sweet, keeping the businesses sweet. Who looses out? All of us – the poor! They never really had anything to loose in the first place, however whilst Gordon Brown borrows money to give to the banks so they can lend to businesses and pay bankers bonuses and salaries, we move a step closer to becoming bankrupt – i.e. not being able to borrow any more money because no-one believes we can pay it back. Once we become bankrupt, social services and welfare will be cut.
According to Gaby Hinsliff, “Many economists believe a recovery now requires bursting that artificial bubble and rebalancing the economy so that Chinese consumers are encouraged spend a little more - reducing America's trade deficit - and Americans a little less. Malloch Brown suggests Britons, too, will need to relearn the art of saving.”
According to the Guardian, “But Scotland Yard is expecting a greater challenge on Wednesday 1 April, dubbed "Financial Fools Day", with a series of protests aiming to cause disruption in the Square Mile and elsewhere.” The Guardian says, “On 1 April an alliance of anti-capitalist groups called G20 Meltdown is organising a carnival headed by "Four Horsefolk of the Apocalypse", which will converge in front of the Bank of England. Anarchists are planning to target the second day of the summit at ExCel. Other groups mounting demonstrations include Climate Camp, the Stop the War Coalition, and Government of the Dead. An alternative summit will be held a few hundred yards from the ExCel centre at the University of East London.”
The alternative G20 summit website provides the following manifesto: Can we oust the bankers from power? Can we get rid of the corrupt politicians in their pay? Can we guarantee everyone a job, a home, a future? Can we establish government by the people, for the people, of the people? Can we abolish all borders and be patriots for our planet? Can we all live sustainably and stop climate chaos? Can we make capitalism history? YES WE CAN!
According to the Daily Telegraph, “The G20 conference will lead to a London "lockdown" next week, with parks, roads and businesses closed to keep world leaders safe, Government officials are warning.” The media are really building this up, as an attempt to build readership and sell advertising. Its interesting how a force created by the desire to advertise and promote consumption causes papers to distort and promote a threat and confrontation to the very system upon which it is built. The Daily Telegraph article continues, “Protesters with armed with buckets and spades are among several thousand people who are planning to bring chaos to the heart of central London.Last night it emerged that City workers were being advised to "dress down" next week to avoid drawing attention to themselves.”
To anyone really wanting revolution bear in mind these words from Stephen Moss, “Changing society is hard, and usually starts with a split in the elite. The English civil war and the French revolution both began with a fissure in the governing classes; their falling-out created the space for populist movements to develop. For a grassroots movement to effect change is enormously difficult. It was only possible in Russia in 1917 because of the devastation wrought by war.”
The reality of the demo was perhaps best summer up by ‘one789’ who said, “My experience of the demo, in talking to people and observing, is that no one had any real clue of why they were there. They recognise 'blame the bankers' to be futile and a distraction, think capitalism 'is rubbish' and 'want change', but say nothing beyond that.I at least expected a high degree of frustration and anger, but more than anything what came across was disillusionment and confusion. But then, that's what you get I suppose from such a middle-class yummy-mummy bleeding-heart rally.”
As rabbit95 said, “Be glad we live in a society free enough to protest and where, apart from the police possibly taping your presence at such a demo, there will be no comeback.”
www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/summit-aims/summit-progress/
www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13362...
www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13362027
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/29/g20-protests-london
www.guardian.co.uk/world/gallery/2009/mar/28/g20-protest-...
www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/video/2009/mar/28/g20-su...
www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/mar/28/g20-protest
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/29/g20-summit-globalisa...
www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/mar/25/g20-q-a
news.google.co.uk/news?q=G20+summit+London+2009&oe=ut...
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/g20-summit/5050...
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/29/g20-summit
www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/global-update/cp-china/active-...
www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/summit-aims/summit-progress/qu...
www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics...
www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/international_pol...
For great photographs and the low down on the G20 Summit, Protests and Demonstrations visit www.ravishlondon.com/g20
Bernard Marr is a bestselling author, keynote speaker, strategic performance consultant, and analytics, KPI & Big Data guru.
He helps companies to better manage, measure, report and analyse performance. His leading-edge work with major companies, organisations and governments across the globe makes him an acclaimed and award-winning keynote speaker, researcher, consultant and teacher. Bernard is acknowledged by the CEO Journal as one of today's leading business brains.
He has written a number of seminal books and over 200 high profile reports and articles on enterprise performance. This includes the best-sellers 'Key Performance Indicators', 'The Intelligent Company', 'More with Less', 'Managing and Delivering Performance' and 'Strategic Performance Management', a number of Gartner Reports and the world's largest research studies on the topic. His expert comments regularly feature in high-profile publications including The Times, The Financial Times, Financial Management, the CFO Magazine and the Wall Street Journal.
He has worked with and advised many of the world's best-known organisations including Accenture, Astra Zeneca, Bank of England, Barclays, BP, DHL, Fujitsu, Gartner, HSBC, Mars, Ministry of Defence, Microsoft, Oracle, The Home Office, NHS, Orange, Tetley, T-Mobile, Toyota, Royal Air Force, SAP and Shell, among many others.
He currently focuses on helping clients to:
- create strategic performance frameworks
- develop relevant and meaningful KPIs and metrics
- develop business analytics and 'big data' strategies
- develop management dashboards and reporting solutions
- train and coach teams to become 'high performance organisations'
- align people management practices with strategic performance objectives
- understand the emerging trends of big data analytics
His engagements range from executive awareness and training sessions to the design and implementation of corporate performance management and reporting approaches. Bernard can be contacted at bernard.marr@ap-institute.com
BOOKS BY BERNARD MARR amzn.to/2dqqCbT
A predictive illustration involving what Audi’s Q1 small crossover will be like from our artist in Indonesia. Positioned slightly underneath the Q3, Audi’s Q1 stands being the smallest premium crossover available.
Audi Q1
Our illustration expands around the sketch released any time Audi a...
i0.wp.com/www.autocars.asia/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Au...
ue to system problems I was unable to upload this series of images until today.
On the 4th & 5th October 2016, leading international thinkers in the areas of Data, Predictive Models, Technology and Decision making gathered at the RDS, Dublin, for Predict 2016. The speakers, many of whom I managed to photograph, discussed the latest progress in Predictive Modelling and its future – from Data to Software and Hardware technology, plus Predictive Modelling methods and the best examples of Data-driven Decision-making.
The organisers kindly invited me to the Predict event at the RDS. In case your are interested I used a Sony A7RM2 coupled with a Sony 29-135 full frame lens. The lens does attract a lot of attention which allows me to to have interesting interesting people … volunteers, students from Brazil, photographers etc.
Don’t go to Richmond Park on a predicted “Met Office Heat Wave” weekend in March!
You won’t be able to park
5 million people who probably live within walking distance will drive their enormous Range Rovers, Audis, Mercs, BMW’s and other prestige car marques to the park
20 million twats on bicycles think they own the roads and tracks
10 million designer dog owners will let their little test tube creations shite everywhere
If you do find somewhere to park then you will return to your car to find some *anker of a BMW owner has completely blocked you!
The only sounds you will hear will be that of vast jumbo jets on their approach run to Heathrow
A million green parrots squawking from every tree
When you do find some deer to photograph you will them come across some pissed up Eastern European (10.30 in the morning) chasing them with a can of beer in his hand.
The park is dead! Countless decaying fallen trees, no sign of any life what so ever!
Apart from that it was a great day out!
Nikon D7100 shooting RAW captures huge files…worked the mega high speed SD cards to death today…never buy slow cards again! Ultra Fast is the only way to go…even if it does break the bank !
Richmond Park is the largest Royal Park in London covering an area of 2,500 acres. From its heights there is an uninterrupted view of St Paul's Cathedral, 12 miles away.
Richmond Park has changed little over the centuries and although it is surrounded by human habitation, the varied landscape of hills, woodland gardens and grasslands set among ancient trees abound in wild life.
The royal connections to this park probably go back further than any of the others, beginning with Edward (1272-1307), when the area was known as the Manor of Sheen. The name was changed to Richmond during Henry VII's reign. In 1625 Charles I brought his court to Richmond Palace to escape the plague in London and turned it into a park for red and fallow deer. His decision, in 1637, to enclose the land was not popular with the local residents, but he did allow pedestrians the right of way. To this day the walls remain, although they have been partially rebuilt and reinforced.
In 1847 Pembroke Lodge became the home of the then Prime Minister, Lord John Russell and was later the childhood home of his grandson, Bertrand Russell.
It is now a popular restaurant with glorious views across the Thames Valley.
The Isabella Plantation is a stunning woodland garden which was created after World War II from an existing woodland, and is organically run, resulting in a rich flora and fauna.
Richmond Park has been designated as a Site of Special Scientific Interest and a National Nature Reserve.
Bernard Marr is a bestselling author, keynote speaker, strategic performance consultant, and analytics, KPI & Big Data guru.
He helps companies to better manage, measure, report and analyse performance. His leading-edge work with major companies, organisations and governments across the globe makes him an acclaimed and award-winning keynote speaker, researcher, consultant and teacher. Bernard is acknowledged by the CEO Journal as one of today's leading business brains.
He has written a number of seminal books and over 200 high profile reports and articles on enterprise performance. This includes the best-sellers 'Key Performance Indicators', 'The Intelligent Company', 'More with Less', 'Managing and Delivering Performance' and 'Strategic Performance Management', a number of Gartner Reports and the world's largest research studies on the topic. His expert comments regularly feature in high-profile publications including The Times, The Financial Times, Financial Management, the CFO Magazine and the Wall Street Journal.
He has worked with and advised many of the world's best-known organisations including Accenture, Astra Zeneca, Bank of England, Barclays, BP, DHL, Fujitsu, Gartner, HSBC, Mars, Ministry of Defence, Microsoft, Oracle, The Home Office, NHS, Orange, Tetley, T-Mobile, Toyota, Royal Air Force, SAP and Shell, among many others.
He currently focuses on helping clients to:
- create strategic performance frameworks
- develop relevant and meaningful KPIs and metrics
- develop business analytics and 'big data' strategies
- develop management dashboards and reporting solutions
- train and coach teams to become 'high performance organisations'
- align people management practices with strategic performance objectives
- understand the emerging trends of big data analytics
His engagements range from executive awareness and training sessions to the design and implementation of corporate performance management and reporting approaches. Bernard can be contacted at bernard.marr@ap-institute.com
BOOKS BY BERNARD MARR amzn.to/2dqqCbT
Weather reports predict the so called "Beast From The East" is due to revisit the UK over the next few days, today the 16th of March 2018 I visited Collieston Bay, its the first time I have witnessed the impact unusual weather has had on the area, it really was exhilarating and offered great photo opportunities.
Collieston is a small former fishing village on the North Sea coast in Aberdeenshire, Scotland. The village lies just north of the Sands of Forvie Special Protection Area, between Cruden Bay and Newburgh.
The earliest recorded history of Collieston is of the arrival of St Ternan, a Columban monk on a mission to convert the local picts to Christianity. There is, however, evidence that people lived here during much earlier times.
Collieston was established as a fishing village by the 16th century, and it provides the first safe harbour in over fifteen miles of beachesand dunes stretching north from Aberdeen.
Fishing for herring, haddock, whiting and codflourished in the 17th century and 18th century and was the foundation of Collieston's economy. The village became known for 'Collieston Speldings', salted and sun-dried haddock and whiting, a popular delicacy throughout Britain. As drift netting developed during the mid 19th century, the fishing began to decline and the focus of the industry shifted to places like Peterhead because the harbour at Collieston was too small to safely accommodate the larger boats needed.
The numerous sea caves in the nearby cliffs, and small coves with shingle beaches provided ideal terrain for smugglers. In the late 18th century it was estimated by the Excise that up to 8000 gallons of foreign spirits were being illegally landed in the area every month. In 1798, the notorious village smuggler, Phillip Kennedy, was killed by a blow from an exciseman's cutlass. His grave and tombstone still stands in the village graveyard.
A ship from the Spanish Armada, the Santa Caterina, carrying arms for the Earl of Erroll is said to have sunk just off the rocky point of St Catherine's Dub in 1594. In retaliation for the Earl's involvement in the Catholic plot against him, James VI blew up the Earl's castle which stood on the cliffs, a mile north of Collieston. The Earl went on to rebuild Slains Castle, six miles further up the coast, in 1597.
Collieston is now mainly a commuter village serving Aberdeen, and is largely given over to tourists during the summer months.
On the 4th & 5th October 2016, leading international thinkers in the areas of Data, Predictive Models, Technology and Decision making gathered at the RDS, Dublin, for Predict 2016. The speakers, many of whom I managed to photograph, discussed the latest progress in Predictive Modelling and its future – from Data to Software and Hardware technology, plus Predictive Modelling methods and the best examples of Data-driven Decision-making.
The organisers kindly invited me to the Predict event at the RDS but as I arrived a bit early I took few backstage or behind the scenes shots. In case your are interested I used a Sony A7RM2 coupled with a Sony 29-135 full frame lens. The lens does attract a lot of attention which does allow me to to have interesting people … volunteers, students from Brazil, photographers etc.
I predicted that a compound with icosahedron and dodecahedron is possible. Here it is.
Folder: Dirk Eisner
Designer of the units: Dirk Eisner and the 60 degrees end by Francis Ow and Tomoko Fuse
144 units - 6 different modules
Date folding the last unit: 08.10.2011
Pictures of the compound of icosahedron and dodecahedron alone can you find here and here.
The predictor was developed during WW11 it was actually manned by 6 people and used by the Royal Artillery, it was directly connected to the Bofors Anti-Aircraft gun. By tracking the speed and direction of an aircraft it could 'predict' where the Ack Ack gun had to fire in order to bring down an enemy aircraft.
i.e. The gun had to fire in front of the aircraft by a specific amount, this meant that the shell would hit the plane and did not pass behind it due to the velocity of the plane.
The Britains set only included one operator and not the six who were used in reality.
Predicted to appear up to 14% bigger and 30% brighter than other full moons this year, according to NASA. Not just in Texas but everywhere it was a big beautiful show Friday night.
Bernard Marr is a bestselling author, keynote speaker, strategic performance consultant, and analytics, KPI & Big Data guru.
He helps companies to better manage, measure, report and analyse performance. His leading-edge work with major companies, organisations and governments across the globe makes him an acclaimed and award-winning keynote speaker, researcher, consultant and teacher. Bernard is acknowledged by the CEO Journal as one of today's leading business brains.
He has written a number of seminal books and over 200 high profile reports and articles on enterprise performance. This includes the best-sellers 'Key Performance Indicators', 'The Intelligent Company', 'More with Less', 'Managing and Delivering Performance' and 'Strategic Performance Management', a number of Gartner Reports and the world's largest research studies on the topic. His expert comments regularly feature in high-profile publications including The Times, The Financial Times, Financial Management, the CFO Magazine and the Wall Street Journal.
He has worked with and advised many of the world's best-known organisations including Accenture, Astra Zeneca, Bank of England, Barclays, BP, DHL, Fujitsu, Gartner, HSBC, Mars, Ministry of Defence, Microsoft, Oracle, The Home Office, NHS, Orange, Tetley, T-Mobile, Toyota, Royal Air Force, SAP and Shell, among many others.
He currently focuses on helping clients to:
- create strategic performance frameworks
- develop relevant and meaningful KPIs and metrics
- develop business analytics and 'big data' strategies
- develop management dashboards and reporting solutions
- train and coach teams to become 'high performance organisations'
- align people management practices with strategic performance objectives
- understand the emerging trends of big data analytics
His engagements range from executive awareness and training sessions to the design and implementation of corporate performance management and reporting approaches. Bernard can be contacted at bernard.marr@ap-institute.com
BOOKS BY BERNARD MARR amzn.to/2dqqCbT
It has been predicted that access to water will create conflict between countries. In Africa, central Asia, west Asia and the Americas, some countries are already arguing fiercely over access to rivers and inland seas, and confrontations could arise as water shortages grow (Gleick, 2000). Countries currently or potentially involved in international disputes over access to river water and aquifers include: - Turkey, Syria and Iraq (the Tigris and Euphrates rivers); - Israel, Jordan, Syria and Palestine (the Jordan River and the aquifers of the Golan Heights); - India and Pakistan (the Punjab rivers); - India and Bangladesh (the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers); - China, Indochina and Thailand (the Mekong River); - Tajikistan, Kyrghyzstan and Uzbekistan (the Oxus and Jaxartes rivers); - Ethiopia, Sudan and East African riparian countries, including Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda and Egypt (the Nile River) (Gleick, 2000; Villers, 1999). Freshwater ecosystem alterations have been carried out through much of modern history, with the intensity of modifications increasing in the early to mid-1900s. Common waterway modifications, such as the construction of dams and irrigation channels, inter-basin connections and water transfers, can impact on the hydrology of freshwater systems, disconnect rivers from floodplains and wetlands, and decrease water velocity in riverine systems. This, in turn, can affect the seasonal flow and sediment transport of rivers downstream, impacting on fish migrations and changing the composition of riparian ecosystems. Exotic species often thrive at the expense of indigenous ones, leading to an unquantifiable loss in freshwater biodiversity and inland fishery resources (Revenga et al., 2000).
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This photo has been graciously provided to be used in the GRID-Arendal resources library by: Philippe Rekacewicz, February 2006
Predicted forecasts were calling for thunderstorms and heavy rain all afternnon and evening. Never happened. Instead we got this. A beautiful evening.
On the 4th & 5th October 2016, leading international thinkers in the areas of Data, Predictive Models, Technology and Decision making gathered at the RDS, Dublin, for Predict 2016. The speakers, many of whom I managed to photograph, discussed the latest progress in Predictive Modelling and its future – from Data to Software and Hardware technology, plus Predictive Modelling methods and the best examples of Data-driven Decision-making.
The organisers kindly invited me to the Predict event at the RDS but as I arrived a bit early I took few backstage or behind the scenes shots. In case your are interested I used a Sony A7RM2 coupled with a Sony 29-135 full frame lens. The lens does attract a lot of attention which does allow me to to have interesting people … volunteers, students from Brazil, photographers etc. Of course my lens did not attract as mush attention as the two cars [especially the DeLorean DMC-12. DMC-12s were primarily intended for the American market. All production models were therefore left-hand drive. Evidence survives from as early as April 1981, however, which indicates that the DeLorean Motor Company was aware of the need to produce a right-hand drive version to supply to world markets such as the United Kingdom, Ireland, India, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. My contacts in Belfast claim that 16 right-hand drive factory-authorised DeLoreans were produced.
30 minutes sunset looks like rain coming tonight that’s predicted as of 2 pm Sunday morning night.
Sunset below….
mooonalilaphoto.wordpress.com/
© Tous droits réservés - Reproduction interdite sauf autorisation - all rights reserved
For great photographs and the low down on the G20 Summit, Protests and Demonstrations visit www.ravishlondon.com/g20
The world faces a problem: recession and a spiraling fall in trade. The Economist puts it like this, “Trade is contracting again, at a rate unmatched in the post-war period. This week the World Trade Organisation (WTO) predicted that the volume of global merchandise trade would shrink by 9% this year. This will be the first fall in trade flows since 1982. Between 1990 and 2006 trade volumes grew by more than 6% a year, easily outstripping the growth rate of world output, which was about 3% (see chart 1). Now the global economic machine has gone into reverse: output is declining and trade is tumbling at a faster pace. The turmoil has shaken commerce in goods of all sorts, bought and sold by rich and poor countries alike.” According to the Economist, “The immediate cause of shrinking trade is plain: global recession means a collapse in demand. The credit crunch adds an additional squeeze, thanks to an estimated shortfall of $100 billion in trade finance, which lubricates 90% of world trade.”
According to the Guardian, “On Thursday 2 April Gordon Brown is going to host the G20 summit in London. Leaders from 22 countries will be at the summit. The G20 is an organisation for finance ministers and central bankers, who in the past met once a year to discuss international cooperation in finance. There are 19 countries who are members: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The 20th member is the European Union, which is represented by whichever country holds the EU presidency (currently, it's the Czech Republic). These countries represent 90% of global GDP, 80% of world trade and two thirds of the world's population. The IMF and the World Bank also attend G20 meetings, although technically the London event isn't a normal G20 meeting.”
This G20 meeting will be for the leaders of all G20 countries. According to the Guardian the policy agenda developed by the last G20 meeting “did not in fact go much beyond pre-existing international initiatives that had recently been developed in more technocratic international bodies.” According to the Guardian, “On the London summit website, the British government has explained what it hopes to achieve. At the summit, countries need to come together to enhance global coordination in order to help restore global economic growth. World leaders must make three commitments:
• First, to take whatever action is necessary to stabilise financial markets and enable families and businesses to get through the recession.
• Second, to reform and strengthen the global financial and economic system to restore confidence and trust.
• Third, to put the global economy on track for sustainable growth.
Gordon Brown has argued that the world must avoid protectionism. According to the Economist, “The World Bank says that, since the G20 leaders last met in November in Washington, DC, 17 of their countries have restricted trade. Some have raised tariffs, as Russia did on second-hand cars and India did on steel. Citing safety, China has banned imports of Irish pork and Italian brandy. Across the world, there has been a surge in actions against “dumping”—the sale of exports, supposedly at a loss, in order to undermine the competition. Governments everywhere are favouring locally made goods.” The Economist also says, “Kei-Mu Yi, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, argues that trade has fallen so fast and so uniformly around the world largely because of the rise of “vertical specialisation”, or global supply chains. This contributed to trade’s rapid expansion in recent decades. Now it is adding to the rate of shrinkage. When David Ricardo argued in the early 19th century that comparative advantage was the basis of trade, he conceived of countries specialising in products, like wine or cloth. But Mr Yi points out that countries now specialise not so much in final products as in steps in the process of production.”
Protectionism in itself sounds bad – but it is a policy option available and used in all political economies – including the most liberal. Protectionism can also lead to a more self-sustainable economy, and can lead to the internal development of an economy, which means the economy is less reliant and dependent on external sources of finance. Development will be slower, but it can be more secure and sustainable. It is likely that if countries do operate protectionist policies it will be a short-term opportunist and populist response to workers and unions, but it could be seen as an alternative economic model of development. It worked in Brazil and Argentina during the 1960s and 1970s for a while, until a more neo-liberal and external finance model was preferred.
The Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was reported on Channel 4 News to have told Mr Brown the crisis was caused by "white blue eyed people". This overtly racist remark has been noted, but there has been no visible backlash. It is interesting how the whole agenda about racism never applies to the dominant one, i.e. you can racially slur white people, and white people with blue eyes without anyone batting an eye lid, whereas if you racially slur other ethnic groups you can find yourself battered. I find this state of affairs deeply offensive to the human race in general, and very patronizing to those groups who don’t come from the dominant ethnic group (i.e. its almost to say the whole anti-racist thing is a way of patting you on the head and saying there, there – because when it comes to racism we don’t really give a shit – see the way we couldn’t give a f*** if you slur our own dominant white ethnic group).
The reality is that the summit will represent a reshuffling of position, support and dependencies between the world’s twenty richest countries. Spectators are expecting China to come out feeling puffed up and proud, given that China has faired relatively in recent years, or so we are led to believe. Meanwhile national demonstrations seem to be focusing our attention to the fact that a different way of working is needed. In fact it will be work as usual – the question is who will come out on top.
In anticipation of the G20 summit a demonstration was held in London. 10,000 were predicted to attend the demonstrations. The police reported 35,000. I was there at the demonstration and I don’t believe I saw 35,000 people walk past Big Ben – and I saw it from start to finish. As one commentator, on the Guardian observed, “Apart from the small contingent of student SWP calling 'One solution, Revolution' and about 20 anarchists making noise the spirit was generally depressed and lacking any anger or sense of direction.” Cognitator joked, “Perhaps the police were adding their number to the protesters. As opposed to taking them away as per usual.”
According to the Guardian, “The Put People First march yesterday was organised by a collaboration of more than 100 trade unions, church groups and charities including ActionAid, Save the Children and Friends of the Earth. The theme was "jobs, justice and climate" and the message was aimed at the world leaders who will be gathering for the G20 summit here this week.”
The march started on the Embankment. When I arrived there I walked around desperately finding somewhere where I could have a piss for free. I tried Starbucks and Costa Cofee, but they seemed to have no toilets, I even tried the stamp collectors fayre a subterranean culture of badly dressed old people, with poor eyesight and even worse posture, which was momentary distraction from my full bladder, but which did not provide the answer to my pressing problem as the toilet door was locked and for staff only. Stephen Moss writing for the Guardian said, “Westminster is not a great place for someone like me, who has a weak bladder, to go on a march. The public loos there cost an outrageous 50p a go. The Socialist Worker magazine-seller next to Embankment tube station is on to this in a flash. "50p to have a piss – a lesson in capitalism," he is soon shouting. Later, I'm pleased to see someone has punched a hole in the wooden sign advertising the price.” In the end I walked all the way to the National Portrait Gallery where you can always be assured a good quality toilet seat.
The Guardian continued, “The marchers, estimated at 35,000 by police, accompanied by brass bands and drummers and a colourful assortment of banners and flags, walked the four miles from Embankment to Hyde Park, where speeches from comedian Mark Thomas and environmental campaigner Tony Juniper, and music from the Kooks, made for a party-like atmosphere.”
The Guardian reported, “A group of fewer than 200 anarchists joined the march and were kept isolated and surrounded by police. Chants of "Burn the bankers!" were the closest anyone came to any show of aggression.’ Yes I witnessed this, it was clear that the anarchists, dressed in black, some of them with scarves covering their faces, generally looked cool as fuck, like some post-nuclear vigilante gang, their black signifying the dark depressing reality from which humanity starts, and the point from which they wish to depart. Whether the police presence was heavy is debatable but they certainly had a line of police accompanying them, whereas no other group were honored with such a presence. Of the anarchists Stephen Moss says, “I fall in with some anarchists halfway through the march – a delightful young Greek called Alex and an Italian, who is happy to talk about Bakunin, but is, I sense, a little suspicious of me. The anarchists march together – with the police flanking them in a way they don't with the rest of the march – and I am intrigued that they never shout slogans or bang drums. Their mission is a serious one.” Moss goes on, “Alex tells me a reporter from the Sunday Times has already approached him to ask why anarchists wear masks. "Work it out for yourself – you're a journalist," he'd told him. "People always ask why we wear masks; they never ask about our ideology," he complains. In essence, that ideology is: power corrupts; all elites will be corrupt; so government should be by the people, for the people – a mass movement of the type they claim is emerging in South America. Hezbollah is also mentioned favourably, a movement they see as developing organically. "Organic" is a key word for anarchists, and it would save a lot of aggro and bad press if they were called organicists rather than anarchists.” Good point. But who wants to be called an organicist? And in any case everything is organic really – its just that some organisms develop in a way we or anarchists done like and some do. To call anarchists, organic is to miss the point, anarachists are like Christian, they dream of a reality which transcends human nature as it is and known. Structure, corruption, self-interest and greed underpin all human activity – the question is not how we can do away with it, but how can we manage it in a fair way.
Stephen Moss wrote about the variety of organizations on the march. He said, “Socialist Worker has a three-point strategy: "Seize their wealth," "Stamp out poverty," "End all wars." Sounds good, but I can't work out exactly who "their" refers to. The Socialist party is hot on slogans, colder on the mechanism by which they are put into practice. The likely outcome to the current crisis still appears to be government by Etonians.” Most of these movements are nothing to do with instituting political change. The people involved in them do not want to genuinely change things. Instead what these groups function as is self-help groups for people, for whatever reason, feel that they have been wronged in life, probably at a personal level, and feeling quite hopeless about their personal wrongs, they want to transpose their personal woe on to a faceless, unintelligible other – the government, the state, the capitalist, the rich and the greedy. Its not so much that socialist workers and anarchists want to change things, they know they are completely ineffectual, and too screwed up and traumatized, too aggressive, unintelligent and incapable of engaging people into a different way of organizing; they just want to shout out to people ‘we hurt’. Fair enough.
The TUC don’t seem to be turning up to do anything more than saying ‘there there’ to threatened workers, and stating the downright bloody obvious to the government. Their message is “The importance of this summit cannot be underestimated. Unemployment and deprivation will grow massively over the next two years unless governments work together. People need to know that there is an international solution to this crisis. If the summit suggests that there is not, many will turn to nationalist and protectionist politics with all that implies for the global economy and world peace.” Mind you they do go on to say that, “But while the immediate response to the crisis will be at the forefront of the leaders' minds, the unprecedented Put People First coalition shows there is a huge appetite for a new economic direction. Thirty years of the increasing dominance of the neo-liberal agenda has got us into this mess. The summit must show that the next 30 years need to be about a renewed era of economic growth based on a much fairer share of the proceeds. One that is environmentally sustainable and one that does not end in the burst of yet another financial bubble.” But what are they really saying? Nothing much.
There is of course something about how all of this is just about having a laugh, getting a kick, getting an emotional fix. There’s something very similar to the way that some of the more violent groups get ready for a rumble with the police and football hooliganism. Football hooligans are much more honest about the emotional kick they get from fighting. The protestors pretend that they are doing it for the people. Whatever the so called reasons, it is clear that a lot of protestors enjoy confrontation. They are much more focused on the enemy and combating the enemy than they are on creating peaceful societies. So Stephen Moss makes the interesting observation, “When the march eventually gets to Hyde Park, the anarchists refuse to join the "TUC bureaucrats" for the official rally and hold their own open-platform meeting at Speakers' Corner, dominated by elderly men in hats who talk less about Bakunin than about beating up the BNP and confronting the police on the streets of Whitechapel. It's all a bit depressing (and expletive-filled – I take serious exception to the denunciation of "Oxbridge cunts"), though I like the fact that the elderly men refuse even to use a megaphone – only the ordinary human voice is organic enough.” The media and police have both hyped the April 2009 marches as like the possible end of the British way of life, of democracy, of capitalism. Nothing could be further from the truth, but its like we all want to will it to happen – we all are looking for excitement – war may be bad but peace is fucking boring – I once read.
The Guardian also reported, “Thomas told the Observer he believed the protest marked "the start of a grassroots movement". He added: "This is a moment. This is the first time people have had a chance to come out on to the streets in a big way." But this is nonsense. This was just an opportunity for a plethora of groups, amongst whom there are more differences, and the only thing that can unite them is a general concern for jobs, justice and climate, which incidentally are three themes that unite most of the country, and all the main political parties, to catch the government at a weak moment, and hope to build up support for whatever cause they have, on the back of the anger and desperation amongst people at this time.
The protest ended up in Hyde Park. I didn’t go, it was too cold and rainy, and although I did aim to walk there via a short-cut through Victoria, I ended up taking refuge in Westminster Cathedral, where I saw another procession, of Catholic priests and altar boys, who were holding a service for the Union of Catholic Mothers. I listened to the Catholic priests, they sounded much more happy and at peace with themselves and their surroundings, than the rankerous socialist bile spitting leaders.
People are blaming the bankers, but there is in actual fact no-one to blame for this. The this needs to be qualified too. The ‘this’ is the fact that people are loosing their jobs, consumption will have to be reduced. It is ironic that it is precisely that people are facing the prospect of lower consumption that they are out on the streets protesting against greedy bankers, it is not so much the greed of the bankers that people resent, so much as the increased consuming power of the bankers that they are envious of. The bankers are not to blame for working within a system, which promoted risky investments, a system which was encouraged and deregulated by politicians who realized that whilst the bubble was growing there were huge financial gains to be made from encouraging bankers to reap the rewards both for themselves but through the state through taxation, and politicians who were encouraged by the people who voted them in, who probably formed the majority of people marching in demonstration and protest today, who voted in the governments believing the deregulation of banks not to be a serious enough issue to vote against a government for, and realizing that even if it was a risk, whilst the bubble was growing, they were happy enough to see their elected government ensuring that the country got a share of the pie. We all contributed to this fucking mess – if you can call it a mess – its only a mess for those who no longer have jobs and cannot consume so much – by voting in the government, who deregulated the banks and encouraged the lending of our money several times over to riskier and riskier ventures which in actual fact were not producing anything of material benefit, but were instead relying on house prices going up and up, as more people poured their money into it. Now we are in deep shit, because Gordon Brown has poured what little remaining money we have, and we have on credit into the black hole – it has simply disappeared.
There are some people who are saying the bankers should pay for the crisis they created. It doesn’t work like that – it works by people putting their money into a bank – and entrusting the bank to invest it wisely. Where the bank looses the money – the original investor looses the money. This creates a motivation on behalf of the investor to invest wisely, e.g. on the basis of what we know right now investing in Barclays rather than Lloyds TSB or the Royal Bank of Scotland. However reality begins to change once one’s livelihood is threatened – now it is solely the banker’s responsibility to have invested the money wisely, the public who invest their money into the banks are seen to be helpless, powerless twits, whose securities should have been looked after by a paternalistic and caring banking sector. So for example, according to Fox New, “Berlin police estimated that around 10,000 people gathered in front of the capital's city hall and more than 1,000 in Frankfurt, Germany's banking capital, for similar demonstrations under the slogan: "We won't pay for your crisis." Its not a crisis – its just that there are now lots of personal crises – the public didn’t bother to check whether their banks were investing their money properly or wisely and now they are paying for it. But the banks aren’t responsible for this – they really aren’t.
We have two problems. The first was created by the fact that banks lent out our money several times over – so we thought the country was several times as wealthy as it actually was. This led to inflationary pressures especially in the housing market – where the same money was lent to several different people – all investing in housing leading to unrealistic housing prices. We now realize we have a fraction of the wealth we thought we had. This creates deflationary pressures – i.e. where everyone has less money prices are reduced. This problem can be solved by creating a soft deflationary landing to a level where the price of labor and goods reflects the value of the money we have not the value of the money we have and we loaned. This means everyone has to accept lower wages – we can either do this peacefully based around a consensus and agreement between corporations, banks, trade unions or governments – or we can do it aggressively – letting perfectly good companies whose workers refuse to take pay cuts go to the wall – and then watch as millions of unemployed people try to reform and reorganize new companies and enterprises.
The second problem is that banks are no longer making such risky investments – so they are not looking to lend their money on to others – which means there is less money to be lent to people – which means less activity and less economy. We have to get used to less activity – but at least the activity will be invested in activities which are genuinely producing material benefit for people – not leading to an apparent generation of wealth – which is the artificial effect of lending x amount of money to people ten times, making it seem that we are ten times as rich as previously – when actual fact we are equally as wealthy – but with prices ten times as high. We should have also let the banks go to the wall – and started again with a heavily regulated banking sector – which was not allowed to lend out peoples’ money irresponsibly. No-one wants to have to feel the pain from this – i.e. the rich bankers who keep their pensions and bonuses, the people who have banked with them who want to keep their savings, and the businesses who are funded by the banks who want to hang on to their business and jobs. So what Gordon Brown is doing, is in the name of the people, funneling money into the banking system, paying for the debts, and thus, keeping the bankers sweet, keeping the investors sweet, keeping the businesses sweet. Who looses out? All of us – the poor! They never really had anything to loose in the first place, however whilst Gordon Brown borrows money to give to the banks so they can lend to businesses and pay bankers bonuses and salaries, we move a step closer to becoming bankrupt – i.e. not being able to borrow any more money because no-one believes we can pay it back. Once we become bankrupt, social services and welfare will be cut.
According to Gaby Hinsliff, “Many economists believe a recovery now requires bursting that artificial bubble and rebalancing the economy so that Chinese consumers are encouraged spend a little more - reducing America's trade deficit - and Americans a little less. Malloch Brown suggests Britons, too, will need to relearn the art of saving.”
According to the Guardian, “But Scotland Yard is expecting a greater challenge on Wednesday 1 April, dubbed "Financial Fools Day", with a series of protests aiming to cause disruption in the Square Mile and elsewhere.” The Guardian says, “On 1 April an alliance of anti-capitalist groups called G20 Meltdown is organising a carnival headed by "Four Horsefolk of the Apocalypse", which will converge in front of the Bank of England. Anarchists are planning to target the second day of the summit at ExCel. Other groups mounting demonstrations include Climate Camp, the Stop the War Coalition, and Government of the Dead. An alternative summit will be held a few hundred yards from the ExCel centre at the University of East London.”
The alternative G20 summit website provides the following manifesto: Can we oust the bankers from power? Can we get rid of the corrupt politicians in their pay? Can we guarantee everyone a job, a home, a future? Can we establish government by the people, for the people, of the people? Can we abolish all borders and be patriots for our planet? Can we all live sustainably and stop climate chaos? Can we make capitalism history? YES WE CAN!
According to the Daily Telegraph, “The G20 conference will lead to a London "lockdown" next week, with parks, roads and businesses closed to keep world leaders safe, Government officials are warning.” The media are really building this up, as an attempt to build readership and sell advertising. Its interesting how a force created by the desire to advertise and promote consumption causes papers to distort and promote a threat and confrontation to the very system upon which it is built. The Daily Telegraph article continues, “Protesters with armed with buckets and spades are among several thousand people who are planning to bring chaos to the heart of central London.Last night it emerged that City workers were being advised to "dress down" next week to avoid drawing attention to themselves.”
To anyone really wanting revolution bear in mind these words from Stephen Moss, “Changing society is hard, and usually starts with a split in the elite. The English civil war and the French revolution both began with a fissure in the governing classes; their falling-out created the space for populist movements to develop. For a grassroots movement to effect change is enormously difficult. It was only possible in Russia in 1917 because of the devastation wrought by war.”
The reality of the demo was perhaps best summer up by ‘one789’ who said, “My experience of the demo, in talking to people and observing, is that no one had any real clue of why they were there. They recognise 'blame the bankers' to be futile and a distraction, think capitalism 'is rubbish' and 'want change', but say nothing beyond that.I at least expected a high degree of frustration and anger, but more than anything what came across was disillusionment and confusion. But then, that's what you get I suppose from such a middle-class yummy-mummy bleeding-heart rally.”
As rabbit95 said, “Be glad we live in a society free enough to protest and where, apart from the police possibly taping your presence at such a demo, there will be no comeback.”
www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/summit-aims/summit-progress/
www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13362...
www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13362027
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/29/g20-protests-london
www.guardian.co.uk/world/gallery/2009/mar/28/g20-protest-...
www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/video/2009/mar/28/g20-su...
www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/mar/28/g20-protest
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/29/g20-summit-globalisa...
www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/mar/25/g20-q-a
news.google.co.uk/news?q=G20+summit+London+2009&oe=ut...
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/g20-summit/5050...
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/29/g20-summit
www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/global-update/cp-china/active-...
www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/summit-aims/summit-progress/qu...
www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics...
www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/international_pol...
For great photographs and the low down on the G20 Summit, Protests and Demonstrations visit www.ravishlondon.com/g20
For great photographs and the low down on the G20 Summit, Protests and Demonstrations visit www.ravishlondon.com/g20
The world faces a problem: recession and a spiraling fall in trade. The Economist puts it like this, “Trade is contracting again, at a rate unmatched in the post-war period. This week the World Trade Organisation (WTO) predicted that the volume of global merchandise trade would shrink by 9% this year. This will be the first fall in trade flows since 1982. Between 1990 and 2006 trade volumes grew by more than 6% a year, easily outstripping the growth rate of world output, which was about 3% (see chart 1). Now the global economic machine has gone into reverse: output is declining and trade is tumbling at a faster pace. The turmoil has shaken commerce in goods of all sorts, bought and sold by rich and poor countries alike.” According to the Economist, “The immediate cause of shrinking trade is plain: global recession means a collapse in demand. The credit crunch adds an additional squeeze, thanks to an estimated shortfall of $100 billion in trade finance, which lubricates 90% of world trade.”
According to the Guardian, “On Thursday 2 April Gordon Brown is going to host the G20 summit in London. Leaders from 22 countries will be at the summit. The G20 is an organisation for finance ministers and central bankers, who in the past met once a year to discuss international cooperation in finance. There are 19 countries who are members: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The 20th member is the European Union, which is represented by whichever country holds the EU presidency (currently, it's the Czech Republic). These countries represent 90% of global GDP, 80% of world trade and two thirds of the world's population. The IMF and the World Bank also attend G20 meetings, although technically the London event isn't a normal G20 meeting.”
This G20 meeting will be for the leaders of all G20 countries. According to the Guardian the policy agenda developed by the last G20 meeting “did not in fact go much beyond pre-existing international initiatives that had recently been developed in more technocratic international bodies.” According to the Guardian, “On the London summit website, the British government has explained what it hopes to achieve. At the summit, countries need to come together to enhance global coordination in order to help restore global economic growth. World leaders must make three commitments:
• First, to take whatever action is necessary to stabilise financial markets and enable families and businesses to get through the recession.
• Second, to reform and strengthen the global financial and economic system to restore confidence and trust.
• Third, to put the global economy on track for sustainable growth.
Gordon Brown has argued that the world must avoid protectionism. According to the Economist, “The World Bank says that, since the G20 leaders last met in November in Washington, DC, 17 of their countries have restricted trade. Some have raised tariffs, as Russia did on second-hand cars and India did on steel. Citing safety, China has banned imports of Irish pork and Italian brandy. Across the world, there has been a surge in actions against “dumping”—the sale of exports, supposedly at a loss, in order to undermine the competition. Governments everywhere are favouring locally made goods.” The Economist also says, “Kei-Mu Yi, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, argues that trade has fallen so fast and so uniformly around the world largely because of the rise of “vertical specialisation”, or global supply chains. This contributed to trade’s rapid expansion in recent decades. Now it is adding to the rate of shrinkage. When David Ricardo argued in the early 19th century that comparative advantage was the basis of trade, he conceived of countries specialising in products, like wine or cloth. But Mr Yi points out that countries now specialise not so much in final products as in steps in the process of production.”
Protectionism in itself sounds bad – but it is a policy option available and used in all political economies – including the most liberal. Protectionism can also lead to a more self-sustainable economy, and can lead to the internal development of an economy, which means the economy is less reliant and dependent on external sources of finance. Development will be slower, but it can be more secure and sustainable. It is likely that if countries do operate protectionist policies it will be a short-term opportunist and populist response to workers and unions, but it could be seen as an alternative economic model of development. It worked in Brazil and Argentina during the 1960s and 1970s for a while, until a more neo-liberal and external finance model was preferred.
The Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was reported on Channel 4 News to have told Mr Brown the crisis was caused by "white blue eyed people". This overtly racist remark has been noted, but there has been no visible backlash. It is interesting how the whole agenda about racism never applies to the dominant one, i.e. you can racially slur white people, and white people with blue eyes without anyone batting an eye lid, whereas if you racially slur other ethnic groups you can find yourself battered. I find this state of affairs deeply offensive to the human race in general, and very patronizing to those groups who don’t come from the dominant ethnic group (i.e. its almost to say the whole anti-racist thing is a way of patting you on the head and saying there, there – because when it comes to racism we don’t really give a shit – see the way we couldn’t give a f*** if you slur our own dominant white ethnic group).
The reality is that the summit will represent a reshuffling of position, support and dependencies between the world’s twenty richest countries. Spectators are expecting China to come out feeling puffed up and proud, given that China has faired relatively in recent years, or so we are led to believe. Meanwhile national demonstrations seem to be focusing our attention to the fact that a different way of working is needed. In fact it will be work as usual – the question is who will come out on top.
In anticipation of the G20 summit a demonstration was held in London. 10,000 were predicted to attend the demonstrations. The police reported 35,000. I was there at the demonstration and I don’t believe I saw 35,000 people walk past Big Ben – and I saw it from start to finish. As one commentator, on the Guardian observed, “Apart from the small contingent of student SWP calling 'One solution, Revolution' and about 20 anarchists making noise the spirit was generally depressed and lacking any anger or sense of direction.” Cognitator joked, “Perhaps the police were adding their number to the protesters. As opposed to taking them away as per usual.”
According to the Guardian, “The Put People First march yesterday was organised by a collaboration of more than 100 trade unions, church groups and charities including ActionAid, Save the Children and Friends of the Earth. The theme was "jobs, justice and climate" and the message was aimed at the world leaders who will be gathering for the G20 summit here this week.”
The march started on the Embankment. When I arrived there I walked around desperately finding somewhere where I could have a piss for free. I tried Starbucks and Costa Cofee, but they seemed to have no toilets, I even tried the stamp collectors fayre a subterranean culture of badly dressed old people, with poor eyesight and even worse posture, which was momentary distraction from my full bladder, but which did not provide the answer to my pressing problem as the toilet door was locked and for staff only. Stephen Moss writing for the Guardian said, “Westminster is not a great place for someone like me, who has a weak bladder, to go on a march. The public loos there cost an outrageous 50p a go. The Socialist Worker magazine-seller next to Embankment tube station is on to this in a flash. "50p to have a piss – a lesson in capitalism," he is soon shouting. Later, I'm pleased to see someone has punched a hole in the wooden sign advertising the price.” In the end I walked all the way to the National Portrait Gallery where you can always be assured a good quality toilet seat.
The Guardian continued, “The marchers, estimated at 35,000 by police, accompanied by brass bands and drummers and a colourful assortment of banners and flags, walked the four miles from Embankment to Hyde Park, where speeches from comedian Mark Thomas and environmental campaigner Tony Juniper, and music from the Kooks, made for a party-like atmosphere.”
The Guardian reported, “A group of fewer than 200 anarchists joined the march and were kept isolated and surrounded by police. Chants of "Burn the bankers!" were the closest anyone came to any show of aggression.’ Yes I witnessed this, it was clear that the anarchists, dressed in black, some of them with scarves covering their faces, generally looked cool as fuck, like some post-nuclear vigilante gang, their black signifying the dark depressing reality from which humanity starts, and the point from which they wish to depart. Whether the police presence was heavy is debatable but they certainly had a line of police accompanying them, whereas no other group were honored with such a presence. Of the anarchists Stephen Moss says, “I fall in with some anarchists halfway through the march – a delightful young Greek called Alex and an Italian, who is happy to talk about Bakunin, but is, I sense, a little suspicious of me. The anarchists march together – with the police flanking them in a way they don't with the rest of the march – and I am intrigued that they never shout slogans or bang drums. Their mission is a serious one.” Moss goes on, “Alex tells me a reporter from the Sunday Times has already approached him to ask why anarchists wear masks. "Work it out for yourself – you're a journalist," he'd told him. "People always ask why we wear masks; they never ask about our ideology," he complains. In essence, that ideology is: power corrupts; all elites will be corrupt; so government should be by the people, for the people – a mass movement of the type they claim is emerging in South America. Hezbollah is also mentioned favourably, a movement they see as developing organically. "Organic" is a key word for anarchists, and it would save a lot of aggro and bad press if they were called organicists rather than anarchists.” Good point. But who wants to be called an organicist? And in any case everything is organic really – its just that some organisms develop in a way we or anarchists done like and some do. To call anarchists, organic is to miss the point, anarachists are like Christian, they dream of a reality which transcends human nature as it is and known. Structure, corruption, self-interest and greed underpin all human activity – the question is not how we can do away with it, but how can we manage it in a fair way.
Stephen Moss wrote about the variety of organizations on the march. He said, “Socialist Worker has a three-point strategy: "Seize their wealth," "Stamp out poverty," "End all wars." Sounds good, but I can't work out exactly who "their" refers to. The Socialist party is hot on slogans, colder on the mechanism by which they are put into practice. The likely outcome to the current crisis still appears to be government by Etonians.” Most of these movements are nothing to do with instituting political change. The people involved in them do not want to genuinely change things. Instead what these groups function as is self-help groups for people, for whatever reason, feel that they have been wronged in life, probably at a personal level, and feeling quite hopeless about their personal wrongs, they want to transpose their personal woe on to a faceless, unintelligible other – the government, the state, the capitalist, the rich and the greedy. Its not so much that socialist workers and anarchists want to change things, they know they are completely ineffectual, and too screwed up and traumatized, too aggressive, unintelligent and incapable of engaging people into a different way of organizing; they just want to shout out to people ‘we hurt’. Fair enough.
The TUC don’t seem to be turning up to do anything more than saying ‘there there’ to threatened workers, and stating the downright bloody obvious to the government. Their message is “The importance of this summit cannot be underestimated. Unemployment and deprivation will grow massively over the next two years unless governments work together. People need to know that there is an international solution to this crisis. If the summit suggests that there is not, many will turn to nationalist and protectionist politics with all that implies for the global economy and world peace.” Mind you they do go on to say that, “But while the immediate response to the crisis will be at the forefront of the leaders' minds, the unprecedented Put People First coalition shows there is a huge appetite for a new economic direction. Thirty years of the increasing dominance of the neo-liberal agenda has got us into this mess. The summit must show that the next 30 years need to be about a renewed era of economic growth based on a much fairer share of the proceeds. One that is environmentally sustainable and one that does not end in the burst of yet another financial bubble.” But what are they really saying? Nothing much.
There is of course something about how all of this is just about having a laugh, getting a kick, getting an emotional fix. There’s something very similar to the way that some of the more violent groups get ready for a rumble with the police and football hooliganism. Football hooligans are much more honest about the emotional kick they get from fighting. The protestors pretend that they are doing it for the people. Whatever the so called reasons, it is clear that a lot of protestors enjoy confrontation. They are much more focused on the enemy and combating the enemy than they are on creating peaceful societies. So Stephen Moss makes the interesting observation, “When the march eventually gets to Hyde Park, the anarchists refuse to join the "TUC bureaucrats" for the official rally and hold their own open-platform meeting at Speakers' Corner, dominated by elderly men in hats who talk less about Bakunin than about beating up the BNP and confronting the police on the streets of Whitechapel. It's all a bit depressing (and expletive-filled – I take serious exception to the denunciation of "Oxbridge cunts"), though I like the fact that the elderly men refuse even to use a megaphone – only the ordinary human voice is organic enough.” The media and police have both hyped the April 2009 marches as like the possible end of the British way of life, of democracy, of capitalism. Nothing could be further from the truth, but its like we all want to will it to happen – we all are looking for excitement – war may be bad but peace is fucking boring – I once read.
The Guardian also reported, “Thomas told the Observer he believed the protest marked "the start of a grassroots movement". He added: "This is a moment. This is the first time people have had a chance to come out on to the streets in a big way." But this is nonsense. This was just an opportunity for a plethora of groups, amongst whom there are more differences, and the only thing that can unite them is a general concern for jobs, justice and climate, which incidentally are three themes that unite most of the country, and all the main political parties, to catch the government at a weak moment, and hope to build up support for whatever cause they have, on the back of the anger and desperation amongst people at this time.
The protest ended up in Hyde Park. I didn’t go, it was too cold and rainy, and although I did aim to walk there via a short-cut through Victoria, I ended up taking refuge in Westminster Cathedral, where I saw another procession, of Catholic priests and altar boys, who were holding a service for the Union of Catholic Mothers. I listened to the Catholic priests, they sounded much more happy and at peace with themselves and their surroundings, than the rankerous socialist bile spitting leaders.
People are blaming the bankers, but there is in actual fact no-one to blame for this. The this needs to be qualified too. The ‘this’ is the fact that people are loosing their jobs, consumption will have to be reduced. It is ironic that it is precisely that people are facing the prospect of lower consumption that they are out on the streets protesting against greedy bankers, it is not so much the greed of the bankers that people resent, so much as the increased consuming power of the bankers that they are envious of. The bankers are not to blame for working within a system, which promoted risky investments, a system which was encouraged and deregulated by politicians who realized that whilst the bubble was growing there were huge financial gains to be made from encouraging bankers to reap the rewards both for themselves but through the state through taxation, and politicians who were encouraged by the people who voted them in, who probably formed the majority of people marching in demonstration and protest today, who voted in the governments believing the deregulation of banks not to be a serious enough issue to vote against a government for, and realizing that even if it was a risk, whilst the bubble was growing, they were happy enough to see their elected government ensuring that the country got a share of the pie. We all contributed to this fucking mess – if you can call it a mess – its only a mess for those who no longer have jobs and cannot consume so much – by voting in the government, who deregulated the banks and encouraged the lending of our money several times over to riskier and riskier ventures which in actual fact were not producing anything of material benefit, but were instead relying on house prices going up and up, as more people poured their money into it. Now we are in deep shit, because Gordon Brown has poured what little remaining money we have, and we have on credit into the black hole – it has simply disappeared.
There are some people who are saying the bankers should pay for the crisis they created. It doesn’t work like that – it works by people putting their money into a bank – and entrusting the bank to invest it wisely. Where the bank looses the money – the original investor looses the money. This creates a motivation on behalf of the investor to invest wisely, e.g. on the basis of what we know right now investing in Barclays rather than Lloyds TSB or the Royal Bank of Scotland. However reality begins to change once one’s livelihood is threatened – now it is solely the banker’s responsibility to have invested the money wisely, the public who invest their money into the banks are seen to be helpless, powerless twits, whose securities should have been looked after by a paternalistic and caring banking sector. So for example, according to Fox New, “Berlin police estimated that around 10,000 people gathered in front of the capital's city hall and more than 1,000 in Frankfurt, Germany's banking capital, for similar demonstrations under the slogan: "We won't pay for your crisis." Its not a crisis – its just that there are now lots of personal crises – the public didn’t bother to check whether their banks were investing their money properly or wisely and now they are paying for it. But the banks aren’t responsible for this – they really aren’t.
We have two problems. The first was created by the fact that banks lent out our money several times over – so we thought the country was several times as wealthy as it actually was. This led to inflationary pressures especially in the housing market – where the same money was lent to several different people – all investing in housing leading to unrealistic housing prices. We now realize we have a fraction of the wealth we thought we had. This creates deflationary pressures – i.e. where everyone has less money prices are reduced. This problem can be solved by creating a soft deflationary landing to a level where the price of labor and goods reflects the value of the money we have not the value of the money we have and we loaned. This means everyone has to accept lower wages – we can either do this peacefully based around a consensus and agreement between corporations, banks, trade unions or governments – or we can do it aggressively – letting perfectly good companies whose workers refuse to take pay cuts go to the wall – and then watch as millions of unemployed people try to reform and reorganize new companies and enterprises.
The second problem is that banks are no longer making such risky investments – so they are not looking to lend their money on to others – which means there is less money to be lent to people – which means less activity and less economy. We have to get used to less activity – but at least the activity will be invested in activities which are genuinely producing material benefit for people – not leading to an apparent generation of wealth – which is the artificial effect of lending x amount of money to people ten times, making it seem that we are ten times as rich as previously – when actual fact we are equally as wealthy – but with prices ten times as high. We should have also let the banks go to the wall – and started again with a heavily regulated banking sector – which was not allowed to lend out peoples’ money irresponsibly. No-one wants to have to feel the pain from this – i.e. the rich bankers who keep their pensions and bonuses, the people who have banked with them who want to keep their savings, and the businesses who are funded by the banks who want to hang on to their business and jobs. So what Gordon Brown is doing, is in the name of the people, funneling money into the banking system, paying for the debts, and thus, keeping the bankers sweet, keeping the investors sweet, keeping the businesses sweet. Who looses out? All of us – the poor! They never really had anything to loose in the first place, however whilst Gordon Brown borrows money to give to the banks so they can lend to businesses and pay bankers bonuses and salaries, we move a step closer to becoming bankrupt – i.e. not being able to borrow any more money because no-one believes we can pay it back. Once we become bankrupt, social services and welfare will be cut.
According to Gaby Hinsliff, “Many economists believe a recovery now requires bursting that artificial bubble and rebalancing the economy so that Chinese consumers are encouraged spend a little more - reducing America's trade deficit - and Americans a little less. Malloch Brown suggests Britons, too, will need to relearn the art of saving.”
According to the Guardian, “But Scotland Yard is expecting a greater challenge on Wednesday 1 April, dubbed "Financial Fools Day", with a series of protests aiming to cause disruption in the Square Mile and elsewhere.” The Guardian says, “On 1 April an alliance of anti-capitalist groups called G20 Meltdown is organising a carnival headed by "Four Horsefolk of the Apocalypse", which will converge in front of the Bank of England. Anarchists are planning to target the second day of the summit at ExCel. Other groups mounting demonstrations include Climate Camp, the Stop the War Coalition, and Government of the Dead. An alternative summit will be held a few hundred yards from the ExCel centre at the University of East London.”
The alternative G20 summit website provides the following manifesto: Can we oust the bankers from power? Can we get rid of the corrupt politicians in their pay? Can we guarantee everyone a job, a home, a future? Can we establish government by the people, for the people, of the people? Can we abolish all borders and be patriots for our planet? Can we all live sustainably and stop climate chaos? Can we make capitalism history? YES WE CAN!
According to the Daily Telegraph, “The G20 conference will lead to a London "lockdown" next week, with parks, roads and businesses closed to keep world leaders safe, Government officials are warning.” The media are really building this up, as an attempt to build readership and sell advertising. Its interesting how a force created by the desire to advertise and promote consumption causes papers to distort and promote a threat and confrontation to the very system upon which it is built. The Daily Telegraph article continues, “Protesters with armed with buckets and spades are among several thousand people who are planning to bring chaos to the heart of central London.Last night it emerged that City workers were being advised to "dress down" next week to avoid drawing attention to themselves.”
To anyone really wanting revolution bear in mind these words from Stephen Moss, “Changing society is hard, and usually starts with a split in the elite. The English civil war and the French revolution both began with a fissure in the governing classes; their falling-out created the space for populist movements to develop. For a grassroots movement to effect change is enormously difficult. It was only possible in Russia in 1917 because of the devastation wrought by war.”
The reality of the demo was perhaps best summer up by ‘one789’ who said, “My experience of the demo, in talking to people and observing, is that no one had any real clue of why they were there. They recognise 'blame the bankers' to be futile and a distraction, think capitalism 'is rubbish' and 'want change', but say nothing beyond that.I at least expected a high degree of frustration and anger, but more than anything what came across was disillusionment and confusion. But then, that's what you get I suppose from such a middle-class yummy-mummy bleeding-heart rally.”
As rabbit95 said, “Be glad we live in a society free enough to protest and where, apart from the police possibly taping your presence at such a demo, there will be no comeback.”
www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/summit-aims/summit-progress/
www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13362...
www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13362027
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/29/g20-protests-london
www.guardian.co.uk/world/gallery/2009/mar/28/g20-protest-...
www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/video/2009/mar/28/g20-su...
www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/mar/28/g20-protest
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/29/g20-summit-globalisa...
www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/mar/25/g20-q-a
news.google.co.uk/news?q=G20+summit+London+2009&oe=ut...
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/g20-summit/5050...
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/29/g20-summit
www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/global-update/cp-china/active-...
www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/summit-aims/summit-progress/qu...
www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics...
www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/international_pol...
For great photographs and the low down on the G20 Summit, Protests and Demonstrations visit www.ravishlondon.com/g20
One can consider the presentation of this spectacular hardtop coupe as an ultimate afford to gain attention of the audience to persuade them for buying a Packard. The financial position of Packard was terrible in 1956. But it wasn't much of a help.
Richard 'Dick' Teague (Los Angeles, 1923-1991) designed the Predictor. It was built at Carrozzeria Ghia, Torino in Italy on a Clipper platform. In ninety days the Italians managed to get this project ready, just in time for the Chicago Car Show (see photo).
The Predictor had all kinds of new automotive features, like tilting headlights, roof doors rolled back when opening the door, lowering back window, swiveling seats, dashboard design which followed the hood profile, a power operated trunk lid, and a wraparound windshield that curved into the roof.
Many car brands copied several novelties: the grille at the 1958 Edsel, the roof line at the 1958 Lincoln Premier, the rear bumper at the 1958 Oldsmobile, opera windows or portholes in the rear pillar at the 1957 Thunderbird, and the headlights at the 1962 Corvette.
Only one Predictor was made. It still exists and is on display at the Studebaker National Museum, South Bend, Indiana.
6128 cc V8 engine.
Production Packard Predictor: 1956.
Image source:
Rob de la Rive Box, Amerikanen uit de jaren '50, Rijswijk, Elmar, 1993.
Original photographer, place and date unknown.
Halfweg, July 27, 2024.
© 2024 Sander Toonen Halfweg | All Rights Reserved
The Airco DH.9 (from de Havilland 9) - also known after 1920 as the de Havilland DH.9 - was a British bomber used in the First World War. A single-engined biplane, it was a development of Airco's earlier, highly successful DH.4 and was ordered in very large numbers for Britain's Royal Flying Corps and Royal Air Force.
Its engine was unreliable, and failed to provide the expected power, giving the DH.9 poorer performance than the aircraft it was meant to replace, and resulting in heavy losses, particularly over the Western Front. The subsequently-developed DH.9A had a more powerful and reliable American Liberty L-12 engine.
DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT
The DH.9 was designed by de Havilland for the Aircraft Manufacturing Company in 1916 as a successor to the DH.4. It used the wings and tail unit of the DH.4 but had a new fuselage. This enabled the pilot to sit closer to the gunner/observer and away from the engine and fuel tank. The other major change from the DH.4 was the choice of the promising new BHP/Galloway Adriatic engine, which was predicted to produce 300 hp (224 kW) and so give the new aircraft an adequate performance to match enemy fighters.
By this time, as a result of attacks by German bombers on London, the decision was made to almost double the size of the Royal Flying Corps, with most of the new squadrons planned to be equipped with bombers. Based on the performance estimates for the DH.9 (which were expected to surpass those of the DH.4), and the similarity to the DH.4, which meant that it would be easy to convert production over to the new aircraft, massive orders (4,630 aircraft) were placed.
The prototype (a converted DH.4) first flew at Hendon in July 1917. Unfortunately, the BHP engine proved unable to reliably deliver its expected power, with the engine being de-rated to 230 hp (186 kW) in order to improve reliability. This had a drastic effect on the aircraft's performance, especially at high altitude, with it being inferior to that of the DH.4 it was supposed to replace. This meant that the DH.9 would have to fight its way through enemy fighters, which could easily catch the DH.9 where the DH.4 could avoid many of these attacks.
While attempts were made to provide the DH.9 with an adequate engine, with aircraft being fitted with the Siddeley Puma, a lightened and supposedly more powerful version of the BHP, with the Fiat A12 engine and with a 430 hp (321 kW) Napier Lion engine, these were generally unsuccessful (although the Lion engined aircraft did set a World Altitude Record of 13,900 m on 2 January 1919) and it required redesign into the DH.9A to transform the aircraft.
Operational history
To boost the rate of production, quantity orders for the DH.9 were also placed with Alliance, G & J.Weir, Short Brothers, Vulcan, Waring & Gillow and National Aircraft Factories No. 1 and No. 2.
The first deliveries were made in November 1917 to 108 Squadron RFC and it first went into combat over France in March 1918 with 6 Squadron, and by July 1918 nine squadrons operational over the Western Front were using the type.
The DH.9's performance in action over the Western Front was a disaster, with heavy losses incurred, both due to its poor performance and to engine failures, despite the prior de-rating of its engine. Between May and November 1918, two squadrons on the Western Front (Nos. 99 and 104) lost 54 shot down, and another 94 written off in accidents. Nevertheless, on 23 August 1918 a DH9 flown by Lieutenant Arthur Rowe Spurling of 49 Squadron, with his observer, Sergeant Frank Bell, single-handedly attacked thirty Fokker D.VII fighters, downing five of them. Captain John Stevenson Stubbs managed 11 aerial victories in a DH9, including the highly unusual feat of balloon busting with one.
The DH.9 was also more successful against the Turkish forces in the Middle East, where they faced less opposition, and it was used extensively for coastal patrols, to try to deter the operations of U-boats.
Following the end of the First World War, DH.9s operated by 47 Squadron and 221 Squadron were sent to southern Russia in 1919 in support of the White Russian Army of General Denikin during the Russian Civil War. The last combat use by the RAF was in support of the final campaign against Mohammed Abdullah Hassan (known by the British as the "Mad Mullah") in Somalia during January-February 1920. Surprisingly, production was allowed to continue after the end of the war into 1919, with the DH.9 finally going out of service with the RAF in 1920.
Following the end of the First World War, large number of surplus DH.9s became available at low prices and the type was widely exported (including aircraft donated to Commonwealth nations as part of the Imperial Gift programme.
The South African Air Force received 48 DH.9s, and used them extensively, using them against the Rand Revolt in 1922. Several South African aircraft were re-engined with Bristol Jupiter radial engines as the M'pala, serving until 1937.
CIVILIAN USE
Because of the large number of surplus DH.9s available after the war many were used by air transport companies. They provided a useful load carrying capability and were cheap. Early air services between London, Paris and Amsterdam were operated by DH.9s owned by Aircraft Transport and Travel. A number of different conversions for civil use were carried out, both by Airco and its successor the de Havilland Aircraft Company and by other companies, such as the Aircraft Disposal Company. Some radial powered DH.9Js continued in use until 1936.
VARIANTS
- DH.9 - Revised version of the DH.4 with the pilot and observer/gunner placed closer together (3,024 production aircraft built with others built in Belgium and Spain).
- DH.9A - (also referred to as the Nine-Ack) was designed for Airco by Westland Aircraft to take advantage of the 400 hp (298 kW) American Liberty L-12 engine. Apart from the new engine and slightly larger wings it was identical to the DH.9. Initially it was hoped to quickly replace the DH.9 with the new version, but the shortage of Liberty engines available to the RAF limited the new type's service in the First World War, and it is best known as a standard type in the postwar RAF, serving as a general purpose aircraft for several years. 2,300 DH.9As were built by ten different British companies.
- DH.9B - Conversions for civilian use as three-seaters (one pilot and two passengers)
- DH.9C - Conversions for civilian use as four-seaters (one pilot and three passengers)
- DH.9J - Modernised and re-engined conversions using the 385 hp (287 kW) Armstrong Siddeley Jaguar III radial engine. Used by the De Havilland School of Flying.
- DH.9J M'pala I - Re-engined conversions carried out by the South African Air Force. Powered by a 450 hp (336 kW)
Bristol Jupiter VI radial piston engine.
- M'pala II - Re-engined conversions carried out by the South African Air Force, powered by a 480 hp (358 kW) Bristol Jupiter VIII radial piston engine.
- Mantis - Re-engined conversions carried out by the South African Air Force, powered by a 200 hp (149 kW) Wolseley Viper piston engine.
- Handley Page HP.17 - A DH.9 experimentally fitted with slotted wings
- USD-9/9A - DH.9s manufactured in the United States by the US Army's Engineering Division and Dayton-Wright. (1,415 ordered, only 4 built)
OPERATORS
MILITARY OPERATORS
- Afghanistan
Afghan Air Force - 18 aircraft, including 16 built by Duks Aircraft Works, acquired from 1924.
- Australia
Royal Australian Air Force - One used by the RAAF from 1920 to 1929.
No. 1 Flying Training School RAAF
- Belgium
Belgian Air Force - 18 aircraft.
- Canada
Canadian Air Force
- Bolivia
Bolivian Air Force
- Chile
Chilean Air Force - Received 20.
- Estonia
Estonian Air Force operated 13 from 1919 to 1933 .
- India
(Part of Imperial Gift)
- Greece
Royal Hellenic Naval Air Service[15]
- Kingdom of Hejaz
The Kingdom of Hejaz received 9 DH.9s and 2 DH.9Cs between 1921 and 1924. Five remained in existence (although not airworthy) in 1932.
- Ireland
Irish Air Service
Irish Air Corps
- Latvia
Latvian Air Force
- Netherlands
Royal Netherlands East Indies Army Air Force - operated 36, some of which were re-engined with Pratt & Whitney Wasp radial engine withdrawn in 1934.
- New Zealand
Royal New Zealand Air Force - Three Airco DH.9s in service with the New Zealand Permanent Air Force from 1923 to 1929 as advanced training aircraft.
- Paraguay
Paraguayan Air Force
- Peru
Peruvian Air Force
- Poland
Polish Air Force - 20 received in 1920, used during the Polish-Soviet war, until 1929.
- Romania
Royal Romanian Air Force
- Spain Kingdom of Spain
Spanish Air Force
- South Africa
South African Air Force - Part of the Imperial Gift. Some locally modified with Jupiter engines and named Mpala.
- Soviet Union
Soviet Air Force
- Switzerland
Swiss Air Force
- Turkey
Turkish Air Force - 4 aircraft, in service from 1921 to 1924.
- United Kingdom
Royal Flying Corps
Royal Naval Air Service
Royal Air Force
- United States
American Expeditionary Force
United States Marine Corps
- Uruguay
Uruguayan Air Force
CIVIL OPERATORS
- Australia
Qantas
- Belgium
Sabena
- Denmark
Det Danske Luftfartselskab
- Netherlands
KLM
- Romania
SNNA
- Spain Kingdom of Spain
Cia Espanola del Trafico Aereo
- United Kingdom
Aircraft Transport and Travel
Handley Page Transport
- Bikaner.svg Bikaner State
Maharaja Ganga Singh
SURVIVORS
Of the thousands of DH.9s built, only a few have survived to be preserved. F1258 is displayed at the Musée de l'Air et de l'Espace in Paris, with a second DH.9 being preserved at the South African National Museum of Military History, while G-EAQM, the first single-engined aircraft to fly from the United Kingdom to Australia is preserved in the Australian War Memorial at Canberra.
The remains of three DH.9s were discovered in India in 2000, one of which is displayed at the Imperial War Museum Duxford, and another in the process of being restored to flying condition.
SPECIFICATIONS (D.H.9 (Puma Engine))
GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS
Crew: 2
Length: 9.27 m
Wingspan: 12.92 m
Height: 3.44 m
Wing area: 40.3 m²
Empty weight: 1,014 kg
Max. takeoff weight: 1,723 kg
Powerplant: 1 × Armstrong Siddeley Puma piston engine, 230 hp (172 kW)
PERFORMANCE
Maximum speed: 98 kn (182 km/h)
Endurance: 4½ hours
Service ceiling: 4,730 m
Climb to 10,000 ft: 18 min 30 sec
ARMAMENT
Guns: Forward firing Vickers machine gun and 1 or 2 × Rear Lewis guns on scarff ring
Bombs: Up to 209 kg bombs
WIKIPEDIA
WANG, Liuping. Model predictive control system design and implementation using MATLAB. Nova York: Springer, 2009. xxix, 375 p. (Advances in industrial control [Springer]). ISBN 1848823304. Inclui bibliografia e índice; il. tab.; 24x16cm.
Google Books books.google.com.br/books?id=PphumLcKPi4C&printsec=fr...
Palavras-chave: CONTROLE PREDITIVO; MATLAB/Programa de computador.
CDU 69.059:519.6 / W246m / 2009
At the Deutsches Schifffahrtsmuseum in Bremerhaven.
This machine weights 8 tons!
After the cold war began, East German authorities no longer wanted to be dependent on scientific information from West Germany.
This included the tide tables compiled by the German Hydrographic Institute in Hamburg. Put under pressure by Russian advisers, in 1955 the GDR constructed its own tide-predicting machine. Unfortunately, the electromechanical printing mechanism was prone to faults, so the machine was never fully usable.