Sunrise is my favorite time of day at the cherry trees. We'll not likely make a sunrise this year, though, as it would mean waking the baby up entirely too early. Still, when I woke up this morning to sun (instead of clouds and rain, like the forecast had predicted), all I could think about was being in this place.

 

Image made with my Hasselblad 500 C/M.

Our Daily Challenge: Fits in Your Hand

  

“I predict another beautiful day”

  

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it doesn't always end up like predicted.

 

_____

 

a new ending to the wellknown fairy tale by the Brothers Grimm (published in 1812) "Hans and Gretel".

 

did this shoot together with my friend Kristoffer. sorry for not been uploading any photos, but is been pretty hectic the last couple of days! Went surfing yesterdays at cold hawaii klitmoeller, so so so so sick waves!

 

we make one litre of fake blood for this shoot. :P

🗻

 

theoutline.com/post/1485/how-the-aztecs-predicted-the-apo...

 

“But neoliberalism really does work, it just doesn’t do what it’s supposed to. It might not be any good for the population at large, but it has facilitated a massive upward redistribution of wealth; the poor are scrubbed clean of everything, and the rich drink it up. Class power creates both the excess of cruelty and the mythic ideology to justify it. Marxist writers like Eric Wolf have tried to find something similar operating among the Aztecs: Human sacrifice cemented the rule of the aristocratic elites — they were believed to literally gain their powers through eating the sacrificial victims — while keeping the underclasses in line and the conquered peoples in terror. But all contemporaneous societies were class-based and repressive; it doesn’t begin to explain the prescient nihilism of their theology. Something else might.

 

The Roman Empire could never defeat their eternal enemy in Persia, and the dynastic Egyptians were periodically overwhelmed by Semitic tribes to the north, but until the day the Spanish arrived the Aztec monarchs were presumptive kings of absolutely everything under the sun. The only really comparable situation is the one we live under now — the unlimited empire of liberal capitalism, a scurrying hive of private interests held together under an American military power without horizon. We have our own flower wars. The United States and Russia are fighting each other in Syria — never directly, but through their proxies, so that only Syrians suffer, just as they did in Afghanistan, and Latin America, and Vietnam, and Korea. Wars, like Reagan’s attack on Granada or Trump’s on a Syrian airbase, are fought for public consumption. There is a pathology of the end of the world: dominance, ritualization, reification, and massacre.

 

The Aztecs were not capitalists, but their economy has some spooky correspondences with ours. While they had a centralized state, there was also an emerging free market in sacrifices, and a significant degree of social mobility: every Aztec subject was trained for war, and you could rise through society by bringing in captives for slaughter. The Oxford historian Alan Knight describes it as “a gigantic ‘potlatch state,’ a state predicated on the collection, redistribution and conspicuous consumption of a vast quantity of diverse goods. Sacrifice represented a hypertrophied form of potlatch, with humans playing the part elsewhere reserved for pigs.” The potlatch is a custom practiced by indigenous peoples further up in the Pacific Northwest, in which indigenous Americans ceremonially exchange and then spectacularly destroyed vast quantities of goods — blankets, canoes, skins, but most of all food — in a show of wealth and plenitude. In the sophisticated class society of the Aztecs, the grand triumphant waste was in human lives.

 

We are, after all, assembled from the bones of four dead universes. We were dead to begin with. Perched on the end of history, the Aztecs beheld a dead reality in which life becomes lifeless, to be circulated and exchanged. Four-and-a-half centuries later, Marx saw the same processes in capitalism. He describes it in Wage Labor and Capital: “The putting of labour-power into action — i.e., work — is the active expression of the labourer's own life. And this life activity he sells to another person [...] He does not count the labour itself as a part of his life; it is rather a sacrifice of his life.” (Emphasis mine.) Workers are cut off from their own labour and from themselves by a production process in which they are not ends but means, part of a giant machinery that exists to satisfy the demands not of human life but of “dead labor,” capital. From his 1844 Manuscripts: “It estranges from man his own body, as well as external nature and his spiritual aspect, his human aspect.” His labour-power becomes a commodity; something to be bought and sold in quantifiable amounts, something inert. The worker under capitalism, like the captive walking up the temple steps, is consecrated to death.

 

We exist in that rubble. The Aztec Empire conquered its world, strip-mined its future, and turned human populations into fungible objects. Contemporary society too has nowhere else to go: capital has saturated the earth, and outer space is a void. Our world, with the monstrous totality of its stability and order, is relentlessly producing its own destruction. In fantasies of black holes and the wrath of God; in the actuality of an atmosphere flooded with carbon dioxide and a biosphere denuded of all life. We missed the apocalypse while we were waiting for it to take place. Baudrillard writes: “Everything has already become nuclear, faraway, vaporized. The explosion has already occurred.” Capitalism built a corpse-world. Its sun keeps rising every morning, whatever we do, but it’s growing hotter in the sky; poisoning the seas, frizzling farmlands to desert, carrying out Tezcatlipoca’s last act of revenge.” ―Sam Kriss

best seen when Viewed On Black

This plant is very cool even 10 years after it has been cut from its root it predicts weather the sun will show or not

Today was a sunny day

Last Saturday after watching it snow and listening to the news predict our wintery doom all day long from work, I knew I had to get out in it. As soon as I was off of work I bundled up (which for me means wearing a sweater under my fleece instead of a t-shirt and actually putting on a hat and gloves) and made a bee-line for downtown. Well that is not quite true, as driving was pretty messed up by this point, Portland's snow plows after all were considered old in the 1980's, I relied on Tri-Met.

 

Now I know many people complained about how unpredictable Tri-Met schedules became during the storm. Many of those same people also complained about how they had to go a day without mail, or two or three days without getting a newspaper. I want to say that I was damned impressed by the fact those drivers were out at all, shuttling people around. My hat really goes off to Tri-Met, and the USPS (I did not miss mail one single day, though UPS and FedEx both deemed my street to be in an "unsafe" zone and stopped service). And sure I was without my Oregonian for a few days, but considering there was no way I was going to try and drive, especially on my street, I thought it understandable if my Oregonian delivery driver took the day off too. Before I move on off this topic, I do wonder how many of those people complaining about the lack of mail, or their freakin' newspaper (really folks, its just a newspaper) missed work themselves. Odd how when terrible weather hits people will stay home from work yet expect everyone else to be manning their posts. Just look at the sudden increase in pizza delivery drivers called out on the road in such conditions...

 

Anyway, I managed to hop a bus to a MAX line with few troubles and the steady whump-whap-whump of snow chains to accompany the voyage. I made the point of getting off at the Rose Garden arena specifically so I could walk across the Steel Bridge.

 

Wind can be cold, very very cold. But gosh was that exhilarating. There is something that is so exciting about being in conditions severe enough that even a simple act like stopping to get my cameras out of my backpack becomes a decision requiring serious contemplation. Speaking of which, I carried my Leica M3 and Nikon FM2n bare on their straps slung across my hips. By the time I got across the Steel bridge and stopped to take a photo with the Leica the aperture ring was literally frozen. I worked it gently and got it unjammed and snapped a photo and the shutter button froze down. Nothing like making your one shot count. My Nikon shot fine though it had some issues with freezing. Both of those cameras thawed out just fine though by the way.

 

Anyway, having made it across the Steel Bridge I encountered a Waterfront Park that was adrift in deep snow, and constantly blasted by some pretty bitter wind. I was not surprised that other than Manyfires, who had accompanied me out, the whole place was deserted... almost. I did run across a small group of homeless huddling together under the bridge. They had laid down tarp, then sleeping bags on top of that, then tucked themselves into their sleeping bags and wrapped more tarp on top of themselves. I had no idea how many were wrapped up in it, I am guessing four or five at least, I could only tell there were actual people sleeping there because of the shifting going on under the top tarp. As I was getting a few shots, another homeless fellow wandered by to yell something over the wind at his fellows sleeping under the tarp. As I was packing up he approached me and offered to let me take his photo for some change. I declined, to my later chagrin, because my fingers had already turned numb from being exposed to the conditions while using my cameras just a few moments prior. I did give him the change out of my pocket though and wished him luck. I never turn down offers for photos like that and now wish I had toughed out the burning fingers a few more minutes. Ah well.

 

So we trudged up through Waterfront Park, or rather waded through drifts is probably a more apt description. The interior of the city was almost devoid of any signs of life too. We passed a few stragglers here and there, and cars trundled by now and then, but the city had largely ground to a halt.

 

I was even able to set my tripod up in Pioneer Courthouse Square and take photos of the Christmas Tree. Ha! Wait, I am not done. Ha! Ha! Take that security guards and your tripod ban. Actually I did see a lone guard, but he did not seem too interested in walking over to me to enforce their silly ban.

 

And finally we made it up to the South Park blocks, which was actually a last minute detour as we were heading back to the Yellow MAX line. It occurred to me that good old Abe had nowhere to shelter either and would be covered in snow. So I quickly jog/waded the block to the Park Blocks to set up this shot. I was in a bit of a rush as my bus transfer was set to expire and I did not want to have to by new fare. Which turned out to be a good thing as Tri-Met closed the Yellow MAX line not long after due to the switches in the tracks freezing.

 

Phew. It was quite an adventure. But I came home with multiple photos and zero frostbite, so I consider that a success anyway you choose to look at it.

These components perform key computations for Tide Predicting Machine No. 2, a special purpose mechanical analog computer for predicting the height and time of high and low tides. The tide prediction formula implemented by the machine includes the addition of a series of cosine terms. The triangular metal pieces are part of slotted yoke cranks which convert circular motion to a vertical motion that traces a sinusoid. Each slotted yoke crank is connected by a shaft to a pulley, which causes the pulley to follow the sinusoidal motion. A chain going over and under pulleys sums each of their deflections to compute the tide.

 

The U.S. government used Tide Predicting Machine No. 2 from 1910 to 1965 to predict tides for ports around the world. The machine, also known as “Old Brass Brains,” uses an intricate arrangement of gears, pulleys, chains, slides, and other mechanical components to perform the computations.

 

A person using the machine would require 2-3 days to compute a year’s tides at one location. A person performing the same calculations by hand would require hundreds of days to perform the work. The machine is 10.8 feet (3.3 m) long, 6.2 feet (1.9 m) high, and 2.0 feet (0.61 m) wide and weighs approximately 2,500 pounds (1134 kg). The operator powers the machine with a hand crank.

Completed in 1724, the Delhi Jantar Mantar. an amazing place, quiet from the busy Delhi streets. This 13 instrument observatory was built to compile astronomical tables, and to predict the times and movements of the sun, moon and planets. Beautiful, magical and mysterious.

used here!, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here

  

Teens, Video Games and Civics The first national survey of its kind finds that virtually all American teens play computer, console, or cell phone games and that the gaming experience is rich and varied, with a significant amount of social interaction and potential for civic engagement.

  

copyright © 2008 sean dreilinger

   

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view brothers playing video games together - _MG_9045 on a black background.

 

Lots of names in this shot!

Donut just wanted to hitch a ride but he couldn't predict that he will end up with psychopatic Oreo racer.

with a snow storm predicted for the weekend I ran out with my mom to cut down my folks' annual Christmas tree. just us gals breaking tradition! #vscocam #christmas

 

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This is SOOC except for very minor crop and copyright initials

 

(DSCN2976-coolflagstone&wirefencesoocinit)

See the video here: zerodriftmedia.com/stanford-software-program-predicts-pre...

  

When Jeff Bezos unveiled his eyesight of drones delivering offers to Amazon consumers during a 60 Minutes segment in late 2013, it caught several persons as science fiction. Scarcely two a long time later on, drones are poised to become a technologies for not just delivering offers, but...

 

zerodriftmedia.com/stanford-software-program-predicts-pre...

APPROXIMATE RELEASE DATE: 1995-2022

HEAD MOLD: "Classic"

 

***My doll is wearing the Girl of Today Mix and Match Outfit with Girl of Today Accessories.

 

PERSONAL FUN FACT: I don't feel that anything I type here can properly express the love and gratitude I feel for this doll. She was the first American Girl I had gotten as a Christmas present, since 2005. She was a complete surprise...one I never expected to happen. I could have never predicted that Uncle Ray would pick my sister and me each out an American Girl for Christmas 2022. It was a departure from tradition. Ever since 2013, Ray always chose us each a Barbie. Typically they were boxed from the 80s or 90s. There were a few years when we'd get more than one, and there were the 2019 gals who were used. I seriously don't know how he does it....how he can pick out the most magical and fitting plastic friends for us EVERY year. It's not like Ray collects dolls...he literally has some sort of sixth sense for our Christmas dollies! Before I get too ahead of myself, let me rewind to earlier that year.

 

2022 was, as my sister describes, the "Year of the Girls." It started with Corinne and Gwynn. Then I ended up with Kira, Saige, and Kanani. We were given Chrissa, Peridot (Felicity), and Jolene (Julie) a few weeks before Christmas. 2022 wasn't just about the Girl of the Years...it was very centered around American Girls in general. We'd had strange luck finding bits and bobs at the flea market. Colleen found Molly's theater seats that she'd been wanting for years. We came home with troves of clothes from different sellers. Oh, and I can't forget to mention a little lady named Kanani, who turned up for $10 in deplorable condition. There were also amazing American Girl sales on the website...ahem, Kira Bailey. Colleen had gotten a very large AG gift card after she switched schools, as a farewell gift from her work friends (that explains Gwynn). While it's normal for our doll collection to fluctuate, it was abnormal JUST how much American Girl luck we were having. It's even crazier to think that Uncle Ray chose 2022 as the year to break the Barbie Christmas tradition. I wonder if all those phone conversations he had with Colleen about our flea market finds had given him the idea. Either way, our American Girl Christmas gifts in 2022 were a fitting way to end the year!

 

The annual gingerbread house photo was already going to be overcrowded. We opted not to include Oscar and Baldwin, our soft sculptured Cabbies, to save space. Funnily enough, on Christmas Eve I decided I wasn't in the mood to build the house. Earlier in the day, I had been looking forward to it. It's almost like fate wanted us to wait...because there would be TWO more dolls for the photo. In 2021, we didn't end up having a family Christmas get together. It was called off a few days before, since everyone got sick. Colleen and I were fortunate enough to be healthy, but ended up home alone for the holiday. We were glad to be reunited with the family in 2022. Ever since we lost Dad in 2012, it's always left my sister and me with the feeling of being stray dogs. It's not that we don't have people that care about us. But the world feels different when the members of your immediate family, your most special clan, are gone. Being just the two of us has given Colleen a deeper appreciation for the true meaning of the holidays. We were both happy to be able to see our family members in 2022...I wasn't even thinking about gifts. Colleen always likes to joke that we get to pretend to be Auntie Kim/Uncle David's kids on Christmas (and also Auntie Sue and Uncle Ray's). Their actual children, now fully grown, are all married and have other obligations. So for a few hours every year, Colleen and I get the ultimate present...stand in parents. I love spending time with people in our parents' age group. We were so entrenched in the conversation and warm atmosphere that both of us weren't even thinking about what Uncle Ray might have gotten us.

 

After dinner and dessert, Uncle Ray approached us holding two large, oddly shaped presents. Something he had said earlier tipped me off that maybe this American Girl shaped gift in my lap was in fact an AG doll. I'm not sure how it came into conversation. But as usual, Colleen was talking everyone's ears off about everything. Dolls must have been one of her many ramblings, when Uncle Ray said, "You two really love American Girls don't you?" It was something to that effect anyways. I am quite observant, being a naturally quiet person who likes to people watch. It was the tone of his voice and the expression on his face that hinted to me in that moment there was a reason he asked that. As Uncle Ray doled us each out a cumbersome present, he seemed to know exactly which doll he wanted us to have. I was quicker to unwrap my gift than Colleen. As I started tearing of the gift wrap, I spotted Raymona's sunflower hat. My heart stopped....I knew right away which outfit it went to. I could only hope that I would finish unwrapping the rest of the ensemble, and on the doll who belonged in it. To my greatest delight, I unveiled a 1995 Girl of Today #13. In that moment, I wasn't entirely sure if I had just received another #16 (who would be Valerie's twin). Something about her seemed different...lighter in colors. As I was studying my doll, Colleen finished unwrapping hers. Wouldn't you know, Uncle Ray had picked her out none other than MOLLY MCINTIRE!!! If you know my sister, than you are aware that Molly has been her prized possession since the tender age of nine. Ray had absolutely no idea that he had given Colleen her favorite doll of all time. I was so grateful she'd gotten Molly. We would have been totally jealous of each other's gifts if that had been the case (truth be told, we would have swapped dolls). Funnily enough, Raymona's resemblance to the doll I already had (Valerie) made me love her instantly. I was so insanely envious of Colleen on her 13th birthday when she opened Valerie. Sure, I knew she was getting GT #16 since Colleen picked her out ahead of time. It didn't matter because in that moment I felt a huge pang of doll lust. I was so glad to have opened Raymona as my own gift...over twenty years later.

 

So what was the verdict...was Raymona the same doll as Valerie? I knew there was a lighter haired version of basically Val already. The old Girl of Today dolls can be confusing to distinguish if you didn't buy them brand new. They all essentially have the same hair cut and face mold. What makes them differ is the hair color. I knew that Valerie, #16, was Samantha's doppelganger. She has dark brown hair and eyes...the same color as Sam's. Raymona's wig was identical in shade to Molly's (handy that Colleen had just gotten Molly for comparison). I knew right then and there she was most likely not #16. Even if she faded, it wouldn't be so much lighter. I scanned the AG Wiki page, using my phone, for other brown haired Girl of Todays, when I spotted #13. Once we were home, I concluded what I already knew. I would have loved Raymona just the same if she was a duplicate. But the fact that she is a different doll (albeit very subtly), makes her that much cooler. And don't even get me started on how she was dressed in the iconic first "Meet" outfit. I'm guessing it really is her original, since she is clearly Pleasant Company stock (which makes her resemble Valerie even more!).

 

Christmas 2022 is a night I'll never forget. The last Girl of Today doll I'd gotten as gift had been in 2002...twenty years earlier to the day. How trippy is that? Amber, #2, also resembles Raymona (but she has the medium skin). Colleen was transported back in time as she toted her new Molly around with her the rest of the night. I was less clingy to Raymona, since I didn't want her outfit to get dirty. It's not surprising that Colleen's childhood Molly and her things got ruined given how inseparable they were. I was always more fussed about keeping my dolls neat, so I was more careful. Ray could have gotten us any two dolls and we would have loved them. Raymona and Molly could have been Our Generation dolls (AG clones/competitors), and we would have been just as grateful. At the end of the day, it's not about who the doll is...it really is the thought that counts. I know that every year, Ray spends his hard earned money and his time looking for the perfect dolls for us. That means the world to both myself and Colleen...a gratitude that I can't put into words. I'm not going to lie though, the whole event was even more epic since we got American Girls. I'll always treasure Raymona, since she is my American Girl from Uncle Ray...and that's why we chose to include "Ray" in her name!

Craters of the Moon National Monument and Preserve is a U.S. national monument and national preserve in the Snake River Plain in central Idaho. It is along US 20 (concurrent with US 93 and US 26), between the small towns of Arco and Carey, at an average elevation of 5,900 feet (1,800 m) above sea level.

 

The Monument was established on May 2, 1924. In November 2000, a presidential proclamation by President Clinton greatly expanded the Monument area. The 410,000-acre National Park Service portions of the expanded Monument were designated as Craters of the Moon National Preserve in August 2002. It spreads across Blaine, Butte, Lincoln, Minidoka, and Power counties. The area is managed cooperatively by the National Park Service and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM).

 

The Monument and Preserve encompass three major lava fields and about 400 square miles (1,000 km2) of sagebrush steppe grasslands to cover a total area of 1,117 square miles (2,893 km2). The Monument alone covers 343,000 acres (139,000 ha). All three lava fields lie along the Great Rift of Idaho, with some of the best examples of open rift cracks in the world, including the deepest known on Earth at 800 feet (240 m). There are excellent examples of almost every variety of basaltic lava, as well as tree molds (cavities left by lava-incinerated trees), lava tubes (a type of cave), and many other volcanic features.

 

Craters of the Moon is in south-central Idaho, midway between Boise and Yellowstone National Park. The lava field reaches southeastward from the Pioneer Mountains. Combined U.S. Highway 20–26–93 cuts through the northwestern part of the monument and provides access to it. However, the rugged landscape of the monument itself remains remote and undeveloped, with only one paved road across the northern end.

 

The Craters of the Moon Lava Field spreads across 618 square miles (1,601 km2) and is the largest mostly Holocene-aged basaltic lava field in the contiguous United States. The Monument and Preserve contain more than 25 volcanic cones, including outstanding examples of spatter cones. The 60 distinct solidified lava flows that form the Craters of the Moon Lava Field range in age from 15,000 to just 2,000 years. The Kings Bowl and Wapi lava fields, both about 2,200 years old, are part of the National Preserve.

 

This lava field is the largest of several large beds of lava that erupted from the 53-mile (85 km) south-east to north-west trending Great Rift volcanic zone, a line of weakness in the Earth's crust. Together with fields from other fissures they make up the Lava Beds of Idaho, which in turn are in the much larger Snake River Plain volcanic province. The Great Rift extends across almost the entire Snake River Plain.

 

Elevation at the visitor center is 5,900 feet (1,800 m) above sea level.

 

Total average precipitation in the Craters of the Moon area is between 15–20 inches (380–510 mm) per year. Most of this is lost in cracks in the basalt, only to emerge later in springs and seeps in the walls of the Snake River Canyon. Older lava fields on the plain have been invaded by drought-resistant plants such as sagebrush, while younger fields, such as Craters of the Moon, only have a seasonal and very sparse cover of vegetation. From a distance this cover disappears almost entirely, giving an impression of utter black desolation. Repeated lava flows over the last 15,000 years have raised the land surface enough to expose it to the prevailing southwesterly winds, which help to keep the area dry. Together these conditions make life on the lava field difficult.

 

Paleo-Indians visited the area about 12,000 years ago but did not leave much archaeological evidence. Northern Shoshone created trails through the Craters of the Moon Lava Field during their summer migrations from the Snake River to the camas prairie, west of the lava field. Stone windbreaks at Indian Tunnel were used to protect campsites from the dry summer wind. No evidence exists for permanent habitation by any Native American group. A hunting and gathering culture, the Northern Shoshone pursued elk, bears, American bison, cougars, and bighorn sheep — all large game who no longer range the area. The most recent volcanic eruptions ended about 2,100 years ago and were likely witnessed by the Shoshone people. Ella E. Clark has recorded a Shoshone legend which speaks of a serpent on a mountain who, angered by lightning, coiled around and squeezed the mountain until liquid rock flowed, fire shot from cracks, and the mountain exploded.

 

In 1879, two Arco cattlemen named Arthur Ferris and J.W. Powell became the first known European-Americans to explore the lava fields. They were investigating its possible use for grazing and watering cattle but found the area to be unsuitable and left.

 

U.S. Army Captain and western explorer B.L.E. Bonneville visited the lava fields and other places in the West in the 19th century and wrote about his experiences in his diaries. Washington Irving later used Bonneville's diaries to write the Adventures of Captain Bonneville, saying this unnamed lava field is a place "where nothing meets the eye but a desolate and awful waste, where no grass grows nor water runs, and where nothing is to be seen but lava."

 

In 1901 and 1903, Israel Russell became the first geologist to study this area while surveying it for the United States Geological Survey (USGS). In 1910, Samuel Paisley continued Russell's work and later became the monument's first custodian. Others followed and in time much of the mystery surrounding this and the other Lava Beds of Idaho was lifted.

 

The few European settlers who visited the area in the 19th century created local legends that it looked like the surface of the Moon. Geologist Harold T. Stearns coined the name "Craters of the Moon" in 1923 while trying to convince the National Park Service to recommend protection of the area in a national monument.

 

The Snake River Plain is a volcanic province that was created by a series of cataclysmic caldera-forming eruptions which started about 15 million years ago. A migrating hotspot thought to now exist under Yellowstone Caldera in Yellowstone National Park has been implicated. This hot spot was under the Craters of the Moon area some 10 to 11 million years ago but 'moved' as the North American Plate migrated northwestward. Pressure from the hot spot heaves the land surface up, creating fault-block mountains. After the hot spot passes the pressure is released and the land subsides.

 

Leftover heat from this hot spot was later liberated by Basin and Range-associated rifting and created the many overlapping lava flows that make up the Lava Beds of Idaho. The largest rift zone is the Great Rift; it is from this 'Great Rift fissure system' that Craters of the Moon, Kings Bowl, and Wapi lava fields were created. The Great Rift is a National Natural Landmark.

 

In spite of their fresh appearance, the oldest flows in the Craters of the Moon Lava Field are 15,000 years old and the youngest erupted about 2000 years ago, according to Mel Kuntz and other USGS geologists. Nevertheless, the volcanic fissures at Craters of the Moon are considered to be dormant, not extinct, and are expected to erupt again in less than a thousand years. There are eight major eruptive periods recognized in the Craters of the Moon Lava Field. Each period lasted about 1000 years or less and were separated by relatively quiet periods that lasted between 500 and as long as 3000 years. Individual lava flows were up to 30 miles (50 km) long with the Blue Dragon Flow being the longest.

 

Kings Bowl Lava Field erupted during a single fissure eruption on the southern part of the Great Rift about 2,250 years ago. This eruption probably lasted only a few hours to a few days. The field preserves explosion pits, lava lakes, squeeze-ups, basalt mounds, and an ash blanket. The Wapi Lava Field probably formed from a fissure eruption at the same time as the Kings Bowl eruption. More prolonged activity over a period of months to a few years led to the formation of low shield volcanoes in the Wapi field. The Bear Trap lava tube, between the Craters of the Moon and the Wapi lava fields, is a cave system more than 15 miles (24 km) long. The lava tube is remarkable for its length and for the number of well-preserved lava cave features, such as lava stalactites and curbs, the latter marking high stands of the flowing lava frozen on the lava tube walls. The lava tubes and pit craters of the monument are known for their unusual preservation of winter ice and snow into the hot summer months, due to shielding from the sun and the insulating properties of basalt.

 

A typical eruption along the Great Rift and similar basaltic rift systems starts with a curtain of very fluid lava shooting up to 1,000 feet (300 m) high along a segment of the rift up to 1 mile (1.6 km) long. As the eruption continues, pressure and heat decrease and the chemistry of the lava becomes slightly more silica rich. The curtain of lava responds by breaking apart into separate vents. Various types of volcanoes may form at these vents: gas-rich pulverized lava creates cinder cones (such as Inferno Cone – stop 4), and pasty lava blobs form spatter cones (such as Spatter Cones – stop 5). Later stages of an eruption push lava streams out through the side or base of cinder cones, which usually ends the life of the cinder cone (North Crater, Watchmen, and Sheep Trail Butte are notable exceptions). This will sometimes breach part of the cone and carry it away as large and craggy blocks of cinder (as seen at North Crater Flow – stop 2 – and Devils Orchard – stop 3). Solid crust forms over lava streams, and lava tubes (a type of cave) are created when lava vacates its course (examples can be seen at the Cave Area – stop 7).

 

Geologists feared that a large earthquake that shook Borah Peak, Idaho's tallest mountain, in 1983 would restart volcanic activity at Craters of the Moon, though this proved not to be the case. Geologists predict that the area will experience its next eruption some time in the next 900 years with the most likely period in the next 100 years.

 

All plants and animals that live in and around Craters of the Moon are under great environmental stress due to constant dry winds and heat-absorbing black lavas that tend to quickly sap water from living things. Summer soil temperatures often exceed 150 °F (66 °C) and plant cover is generally less than 5% on cinder cones and about 15% over the entire monument. Adaptation is therefore necessary for survival in this semi-arid harsh climate.

 

Water is usually only found deep inside holes at the bottom of blow-out craters. Animals therefore get the moisture they need directly from their food. The black soil on and around cinder cones does not hold moisture for long, making it difficult for plants to establish themselves. Soil particles first develop from direct rock decomposition by lichens and typically collect in crevices in lava flows. Successively more complex plants then colonize the microhabitat created by the increasingly productive soil.

 

The shaded north slopes of cinder cones provide more protection from direct sunlight and prevailing southwesterly winds and have a more persistent snow cover (an important water source in early spring). These parts of cinder cones are therefore colonized by plants first.

 

Gaps between lava flows were sometimes cut off from surrounding vegetation. These literal islands of habitat are called kīpukas, a Hawaiian name used for older land surrounded by younger lava. Carey Kīpuka is one such area in the southernmost part of the monument and is used as a benchmark to measure how plant cover has changed in less pristine parts of southern Idaho.

 

Idaho is a landlocked state in the Mountain West subregion of the United States. It shares a small portion of the Canada–United States border to the north, with the province of British Columbia. It borders Montana and Wyoming to the east, Nevada and Utah to the south, and Washington and Oregon to the west. The state's capital and largest city is Boise. With an area of 83,570 square miles (216,400 km2), Idaho is the 14th largest state by land area. With a population of approximately 1.8 million, it ranks as the 13th least populous and the 6th least densely populated of the 50 U.S. states.

 

For thousands of years, and prior to European colonization, Idaho has been inhabited by native peoples. In the early 19th century, Idaho was considered part of the Oregon Country, an area of dispute between the U.S. and the British Empire. It officially became a U.S. territory with the signing of the Oregon Treaty of 1846, but a separate Idaho Territory was not organized until 1863, instead being included for periods in Oregon Territory and Washington Territory. Idaho was eventually admitted to the Union on July 3, 1890, becoming the 43rd state.

 

Forming part of the Pacific Northwest (and the associated Cascadia bioregion), Idaho is divided into several distinct geographic and climatic regions. The state's north, the relatively isolated Idaho Panhandle, is closely linked with Eastern Washington, with which it shares the Pacific Time Zone—the rest of the state uses the Mountain Time Zone. The state's south includes the Snake River Plain (which has most of the population and agricultural land), and the southeast incorporates part of the Great Basin. Idaho is quite mountainous and contains several stretches of the Rocky Mountains. The United States Forest Service holds about 38% of Idaho's land, the highest proportion of any state.

 

Industries significant for the state economy include manufacturing, agriculture, mining, forestry, and tourism. Several science and technology firms are either headquartered in Idaho or have factories there, and the state also contains the Idaho National Laboratory, which is the country's largest Department of Energy facility. Idaho's agricultural sector supplies many products, but the state is best known for its potato crop, which comprises around one-third of the nationwide yield. The official state nickname is the "Gem State."

 

The history of Idaho is an examination of the human history and social activity within the state of Idaho, one of the United States of America located in the Pacific Northwest area near the west coast of the United States and Canada. Other associated areas include southern Alaska, all of British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, western Montana and northern California and Nevada.

 

Humans may have been present in Idaho for 16,600 years. Recent findings in Cooper's Ferry along the Salmon River in western Idaho near the town of Cottonwood have unearthed stone tools and animal bone fragments in what may be the oldest evidence of humans in North America. Earlier excavations in 1959 at Wilson Butte Cave near Twin Falls revealed evidence of human activity, including arrowheads, that rank among the oldest dated artifacts in North America. Native American tribes predominant in the area in historic times included the Nez Perce and the Coeur d'Alene in the north; and the Northern and Western Shoshone and Bannock peoples in the south.

 

Idaho was one of the last areas in the lower 48 states of the US to be explored by people of European descent. The Lewis and Clark expedition entered present-day Idaho on August 12, 1805, at Lemhi Pass. It is believed that the first "European descent" expedition to enter southern Idaho was by a group led in 1811 and 1812 by Wilson Price Hunt, which navigated the Snake River while attempting to blaze an all-water trail westward from St. Louis, Missouri, to Astoria, Oregon. At that time, approximately 8,000 Native Americans lived in the region.

 

Fur trading led to the first significant incursion of Europeans in the region. Andrew Henry of the Missouri Fur Company first entered the Snake River plateau in 1810. He built Fort Henry on Henry's Fork on the upper Snake River, near modern St. Anthony, Idaho. However, this first American fur post west of the Rocky Mountains was abandoned the following spring.

 

The British-owned Hudson's Bay Company next entered Idaho and controlled the trade in the Snake River area by the 1820s. The North West Company's interior department of the Columbia was created in June 1816, and Donald Mackenzie was assigned as its head. Mackenzie had previously been employed by Hudson's Bay and had been a partner in the Pacific Fur Company, financed principally by John Jacob Astor. During these early years, he traveled west with a Pacific Fur Company's party and was involved in the initial exploration of the Salmon River and Clearwater River. The company proceeded down the lower Snake River and Columbia River by canoe, and were the first of the Overland Astorians to reach Fort Astoria, on January 18, 1812.

 

Under Mackenzie, the North West Company was a dominant force in the fur trade in the Snake River country. Out of Fort George in Astoria, Mackenzie led fur brigades up the Snake River in 1816-1817 and up the lower Snake in 1817-1818. Fort Nez Perce, established in July, 1818, became the staging point for Mackenzies' Snake brigades. The expedition of 1818-1819 explored the Blue Mountains, and traveled down the Snake River to the Bear River and approached the headwaters of the Snake. Mackenzie sought to establish a navigable route up the Snake River from Fort Nez Perce to the Boise area in 1819. While he did succeed in traveling by boat from the Columbia River through the Grand Canyon of the Snake past Hells Canyon, he concluded that water transport was generally impractical. Mackenzie held the first rendezvous in the region on the Boise River in 1819.

 

Despite their best efforts, early American fur companies in this region had difficulty maintaining the long-distance supply lines from the Missouri River system into the Intermountain West. However, Americans William H. Ashley and Jedediah Smith expanded the Saint Louis fur trade into Idaho in 1824. The 1832 trapper's rendezvous at Pierre's Hole, held at the foot of the Three Tetons in modern Teton County, was followed by an intense battle between the Gros Ventre and a large party of American trappers aided by their Nez Perce and Flathead allies.

 

The prospect of missionary work among the Native Americans also attracted early settlers to the region. In 1809, Kullyspell House, the first white-owned establishment and first trading post in Idaho, was constructed. In 1836, the Reverend Henry H. Spalding established a Protestant mission near Lapwai, where he printed the Northwest's first book, established Idaho's first school, developed its first irrigation system, and grew the state's first potatoes. Narcissa Whitman and Eliza Hart Spalding were the first non-native women to enter present-day Idaho.

 

Cataldo Mission, the oldest standing building in Idaho, was constructed at Cataldo by the Coeur d'Alene and Catholic missionaries. In 1842, Father Pierre-Jean De Smet, with Fr. Nicholas Point and Br. Charles Duet, selected a mission location along the St. Joe River. The mission was moved a short distance away in 1846, as the original location was subject to flooding. In 1850, Antonio Ravalli designed a new mission building and Indians affiliated with the church effort built the mission, without nails, using the wattle and daub method. In time, the Cataldo mission became an important stop for traders, settlers, and miners. It served as a place for rest from the trail, offered needed supplies, and was a working port for boats heading up the Coeur d'Alene River.

 

During this time, the region which became Idaho was part of an unorganized territory known as Oregon Country, claimed by both the United States and Great Britain. The United States gained undisputed jurisdiction over the region in the Oregon Treaty of 1846, although the area was under the de facto jurisdiction of the Provisional Government of Oregon from 1843 to 1849. The original boundaries of Oregon Territory in 1848 included all three of the present-day Pacific Northwest states and extended eastward to the Continental Divide. In 1853, areas north of the 46th Parallel became Washington Territory, splitting what is now Idaho in two. The future state was reunited in 1859 after Oregon became a state and the boundaries of Washington Territory were redrawn.

 

While thousands passed through Idaho on the Oregon Trail or during the California gold rush of 1849, few people settled there. In 1860, the first of several gold rushes in Idaho began at Pierce in present-day Clearwater County. By 1862, settlements in both the north and south had formed around the mining boom.

 

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints missionaries founded Fort Lemhi in 1855, but the settlement did not last. The first organized town in Idaho was Franklin, settled in April 1860 by Mormon pioneers who believed they were in Utah Territory; although a later survey determined they had crossed the border. Mormon pioneers reached areas near the current-day Grand Teton National Park in Wyoming and established most of the historic and modern communities in Southeastern Idaho. These settlements include Ammon, Blackfoot, Chubbuck, Firth, Idaho Falls, Iona, Pocatello, Rexburg, Rigby, Shelley, and Ucon.

 

Large numbers of English immigrants settled in what is now the state of Idaho in the late 19th and early 20th century, many before statehood. The English found they had more property rights and paid less taxes than they did back in England. They were considered some of the most desirable immigrants at the time. Many came from humble beginnings and would rise to prominence in Idaho. Frank R. Gooding was raised in a rural working-class background in England, but was eventually elected as the seventh governor of the state. Today people of English descent make up one fifth of the entire state of Idaho and form a plurality in the southern portion of the state.

 

Many German farmers also settled in what is now Idaho. German settlers were primarily Lutheran across all of the midwest and west, including Idaho, however there were small numbers of Catholics amongst them as well. In parts of Northern Idaho, German remained the dominant language until World War I, when German-Americans were pressured to convert entirely to English. Today, Idahoans of German ancestry make up nearly one fifth of all Idahoans and make up the second largest ethnic group after Idahoans of English descent with people of German ancestry being 18.1% of the state and people of English ancestry being 20.1% of the state.

 

Irish Catholics worked in railroad centers such as Boise. Today, 10% of Idahoans self-identify as having Irish ancestry.

 

York, a slave owned by William Clark but considered a full member of Corps of Discovery during expedition to the Pacific, was the first recorded African American in Idaho. There is a significant African American population made up of those who came west after the abolition of slavery. Many settled near Pocatello and were ranchers, entertainers, and farmers. Although free, many blacks suffered discrimination in the early-to-mid-late 20th century. The black population of the state continues to grow as many come to the state because of educational opportunities, to serve in the military, and for other employment opportunities. There is a Black History Museum in Boise, Idaho, with an exhibit known as the "Invisible Idahoan", which chronicles the first African-Americans in the state. Blacks are the fourth largest ethnic group in Idaho according to the 2000 census. Mountain Home, Boise, and Garden City have significant African-American populations.

 

The Basque people from the Iberian peninsula in Spain and southern France were traditionally shepherds in Europe. They came to Idaho, offering hard work and perseverance in exchange for opportunity. One of the largest Basque communities in the US is in Boise, with a Basque museum and festival held annually in the city.

 

Chinese in the mid-19th century came to America through San Francisco to work on the railroad and open businesses. By 1870, there were over 4000 Chinese and they comprised almost 30% of the population. They suffered discrimination due to the Anti-Chinese League in the 19th century which sought to limit the rights and opportunities of Chinese emigrants. Today Asians are third in population demographically after Whites and Hispanics at less than 2%.

 

Main articles: Oregon boundary dispute, Provisional Government of Oregon, Oregon Treaty, Oregon Territory, Washington Territory, Dakota Territory, Organic act § List of organic acts, and Idaho Territory

 

On March 4, 1863, President Abraham Lincoln signed an act creating Idaho Territory from portions of Washington Territory and Dakota Territory with its capital at Lewiston. The original Idaho Territory included most of the areas that later became the states of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming, and had a population of under 17,000. Idaho Territory assumed the boundaries of the modern state in 1868 and was admitted as a state in 1890.

 

After Idaho became a territory, legislation was held in Lewiston, the capital of Idaho Territory at the time. There were many territories acts put into place, and then taken away during these early sessions, one act being the move of the capital city from Lewiston to Boise City. Boise was becoming a growing area after gold was found, so on December 24, 1864, Boise City was made the final destination of the capital for the Territory of Idaho.

 

However, moving the capital to Boise City created a lot of issues between the territory. This was especially true between the north and south areas in the territory, due to how far south Boise City was. Problems with communicating between the north and south contributed to some land in Idaho Territory being transferred to other territories and areas at the time. Idaho’s early boundary changes helped create the current boundaries of Washington, Wyoming, and Montana States as currently exist.

 

In a bid for statehood, Governor Edward A. Stevenson called for a constitutional convention in 1889. The convention approved a constitution on August 6, 1889, and voters approved the constitution on November 5, 1889.

 

When President Benjamin Harrison signed the law admitting Idaho as a U.S. state on July 3, 1890, the population was 88,548. George L. Shoup became the state's first governor, but resigned after only a few weeks in office to take a seat in the United States Senate. Willis Sweet, a Republican, was the first congressman, 1890 to 1895, representing the state at-large. He vigorously demanded "Free Silver" or the unrestricted coinage of silver into legal tender, in order to pour money into the large silver mining industry in the Mountain West, but he was defeated by supporters of the gold standard. In 1896 he, like many Republicans from silver mining districts, supported the Silver Republican Party instead of the regular Republican nominee William McKinley.

 

During its first years of statehood, Idaho was plagued by labor unrest in the mining district of Coeur d'Alene. In 1892, miners called a strike which developed into a shooting war between union miners and company guards. Each side accused the other of starting the fight. The first shots were exchanged at the Frisco mine in Frisco, in the Burke-Canyon north and east of Wallace. The Frisco mine was blown up, and company guards were taken prisoner. The violence soon spilled over into the nearby community of Gem, where union miners attempted to locate a Pinkerton spy who had infiltrated their union and was passing information to the mine operators. But agent Charlie Siringo escaped by cutting a hole in the floor of his room. Strikers forced the Gem mine to close, then traveled west to the Bunker Hill mining complex near Wardner, and closed down that facility as well. Several had been killed in the Burke-Canyon fighting. The Idaho National Guard and federal troops were dispatched to the area, and union miners and sympathizers were thrown into bullpens.

 

Hostilities would again erupt at the Bunker Hill facility in 1899, when seventeen union miners were fired for having joined the union. Other union miners were likewise ordered to draw their pay and leave. Angry members of the union converged on the area and blew up the Bunker Hill Mill, killing two company men.

 

In both disputes, the union's complaints included pay, hours of work, the right of miners to belong to the union, and the mine owners' use of informants and undercover agents. The violence committed by union miners was answered with a brutal response in 1892 and in 1899.

 

Through the Western Federation of Miners (WFM) union, the battles in the mining district became closely tied to a major miners' strike in Colorado. The struggle culminated in the December 1905 assassination of former Governor Frank Steunenberg by Harry Orchard (also known as Albert Horsley), a member of the WFM. Orchard was allegedly incensed by Steunenberg's efforts as governor to put down the 1899 miner uprising after being elected on a pro-labor platform.

 

Pinkerton detective James McParland conducted the investigation into the assassination. In 1907, WFM Secretary Treasurer "Big Bill" Haywood and two other WFM leaders were tried on a charge of conspiracy to murder Steunenberg, with Orchard testifying against them as part of a deal made with McParland. The nationally publicized trial featured Senator William E. Borah as prosecuting attorney and Clarence Darrow representing the defendants. The defense team presented evidence that Orchard had been a Pinkerton agent and had acted as a paid informant for the Cripple Creek Mine Owners' Association. Darrow argued that Orchard's real motive in the assassination had been revenge for a declaration of martial law by Steunenberg, which prompted Orchard to gamble away a share in the Hercules silver mine that would otherwise have made him wealthy.

 

Two of the WFM leaders were acquitted in two separate trials, and the third was released. Orchard was convicted and sentenced to death. His sentence was commuted, and he spent the rest of his life in an Idaho prison.

 

Mining in Idaho was a major commercial venture, bringing a great deal of attention to the state. From 1860-1866 Idaho produced 19% of all gold in the United States, or 2.5 million ounces.

 

Most of Idaho's mining production, 1860–1969, has come from metals equating to $2.88 billion out of $3.42 billion, according to the best estimates. Of the metallic mining areas of Idaho, the Coeur d'Alene region has produced the most by far, and accounts for about 80% of the total Idaho yield.

 

Several others—Boise Basin, Wood River Valley, Stibnite, Blackbirg, and Owyhee—range considerably above the other big producers. Atlanta, Bear Valley, Bay Horse, Florence, Gilmore, Mackay, Patterson, and Yankee Fork all ran on the order of ten to twenty million dollars, and Elk City, Leesburg, Pierce, Rocky Bar, and Warren's make up the rest of the major Idaho mining areas that stand out in the sixty or so regions of production worthy of mention.

 

A number of small operations do not appear in this list of Idaho metallic mining areas: a small amount of gold was recovered from Goose Creek on Salmon Meadows; a mine near Cleveland was prospected in 1922 and produced a little manganese in 1926; a few tons of copper came from Fort Hall, and a few more tons of copper came from a mine near Montpelier. Similarly, a few tons of lead came from a property near Bear Lake, and lead-silver is known on Cassia Creek near Elba. Some gold quartz and lead-silver workings are on Ruby Creek west of Elk River, and there is a slightly developed copper operation on Deer Creek near Winchester. Molybdenum is known on Roaring River and on the east fork of the Salmon. Some scattered mining enterprises have been undertaken around Soldier Mountain and on Chief Eagle Eye Creek north of Montour.

 

Idaho proved to be one of the more receptive states to the progressive agenda of the late 19th century and early 20th century. The state embraced progressive policies such as women's suffrage (1896) and prohibition (1916) before they became federal law. Idahoans were also strongly supportive of Free Silver. The pro-bimetallism Populist and Silver Republican parties of the late 1890s were particularly successful in the state.

 

Eugenics was also a major part of the Progressive movement. In 1919, the Idaho legislature passed an Act legalizing the forced sterilization of some persons institutionalized in the state. The act was vetoed by governor D.W. Davis, who doubted its scientific merits and believed it likely violated the Equal Protection clause of the US Constitution. In 1925, the Idaho legislature passed a revised eugenics act, now tailored to avoid Davis's earlier objections. The new law created a state board of eugenics, charged with: the sterilization of all feebleminded, insane, epileptics, habitual criminals, moral degenerates and sexual perverts who are a menace to society, and providing the means for ascertaining who are such persons.

The Eugenics board was eventually folded into the state's health commission; between 1932 and 1964, a total of 30 women and eight men in Idaho were sterilized under this law. The sterilization law was formally repealed in 1972.

 

After statehood, Idaho's economy began a gradual shift away from mining toward agriculture, particularly in the south. Older mining communities such as Silver City and Rocky Bar gave way to agricultural communities incorporated after statehood, such as Nampa and Twin Falls. Milner Dam on the Snake River, completed in 1905, allowed for the formation of many agricultural communities in the Magic Valley region which had previously been nearly unpopulated.

 

Meanwhile, some of the mining towns were able to reinvent themselves as resort communities, most notably in Blaine County, where the Sun Valley ski resort opened in 1936. Others, such as Silver City and Rocky Bar, became ghost towns.

 

In the north, mining continued to be an important industry for several more decades. The closure of the Bunker Hill Mine complex in Shoshone County in the early 1980s sent the region's economy into a tailspin. Since that time, a substantial increase in tourism in north Idaho has helped the region to recover. Coeur d'Alene, a lake-side resort town, is a destination for visitors in the area.

 

Beginning in the 1980s, there was a rise in North Idaho of a few right-wing extremist and "survivalist" political groups, most notably one holding Neo-Nazi views, the Aryan Nations. These groups were most heavily concentrated in the Panhandle region of the state, particularly in the vicinity of Coeur d'Alene.

 

In 1992 a stand-off occurred between U.S. Marshals, the F.B.I., and white separatist Randy Weaver and his family at their compound at Ruby Ridge, located near the small, northern Idaho town of Naples. The ensuing fire-fight and deaths of a U.S. Marshal, and Weaver's son and wife gained national attention, and raised a considerable amount of controversy regarding the nature of acceptable force by the federal government in such situations.

 

In 2001, the Aryan Nations compound, which had been located in Hayden Lake, Idaho, was confiscated as a result of a court case, and the organization moved out of state. About the same time Boise installed an impressive stone Human Rights Memorial featuring a bronze statue of Anne Frank and quotations from her and many other writers extolling human freedom and equality.

 

The demographics of the state have changed. Due to this growth in different groups, especially in Boise, the economic expansion surged wrong-economic growth followed the high standard of living and resulted in the "growth of different groups". The population of Idaho in the 21st Century has been described as sharply divided along geographic and cultural lines due to the center of the state being dominated by sparsely-populated national forests, mountain ranges and recreation sites: "unless you're willing to navigate a treacherous mountain pass, you can't even drive from the north to the south without leaving the state." The northern population gravitates towards Spokane, Washington, the heavily Mormon south-east population towards Utah, with an isolated Boise "[being] the closest thing to a city-state that you'll find in America."

 

On March 13, 2020, officials from the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare announced the first confirmed case of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 within the state of Idaho. A woman over the age of 50 from the southwestern part of the state was confirmed to have the coronavirus infection. She contracted the infection while attending a conference in New York City. Conference coordinators notified attendees that three individuals previously tested positive for the coronavirus. The Idahoan did not require hospitalization and was recovering from mild symptoms from her home. At the time of the announcement, there were 1,629 total cases and 41 deaths in the United States. Five days beforehand, on March 8, a man of age 54 had died of an unknown respiratory illness which his doctor had believed to be pneumonia. The disease was later suspected to be – but never confirmed as – COVID-19.

 

On March 14, state officials announced the second confirmed case within the state. The South Central Public Health District, announced that a woman over the age of 50 that resides in Blaine County had contracted the infection.[44] Like the first case, she did not require hospitalization and she was recovering from mild symptoms from home. Later on in the day, three additional confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported in the state by three of the seven health districts in the state, which brought the confirmed total cases of coronavirus to five in Idaho. Officials from Central District Health announced their second confirmed case, which was a male from Ada County in his 50s. He was not hospitalized and was recovering at home. South Central Public Health reported their second confirmed case in a female that is over the age of 70 who was hospitalized. Eastern Idaho Public Health reported a confirmed positive case in a woman under the age of 60 in Teton County. She had contracted the coronavirus from contact with a confirmed case in a neighboring state; she was not hospitalized. The South Central Public Health District announced that a woman over the age of 50 that resides in Blaine County had contracted the infection. Like the first case, she did not require hospitalization and she was recovering from mild symptoms from home.

 

On March 17, two more confirmed cases of the infection were reported, bringing the total to seven. The first case on this date was by officials from Central District Health reported that a female under the age of 50 in Ada County was recovering at home and was not hospitalized. The second confirmed case was a female over the age of 50 as reported by South Central Public Health officials.

 

On March 18, two additional confirmed cases were announced by South Central Public Health District officials. One is a male from Blaine County in his 40s and the other a male in his 80s from Twin Falls County. These cases were the first known community spread transmission of the coronavirus in South Central Idaho.

Tide Predicting Machine No. 2 is a special purpose mechanical analog computer for predicting the height and time of high and low tides.

 

The U.S. government used Tide Predicting Machine No. 2 from 1910 to 1965 to predict tides for ports around the world. The machine, also known as “Old Brass Brains,” uses an intricate arrangement of gears, pulleys, chains, slides, and other mechanical components to perform the computations.

 

A person using the machine would require 2-3 days to compute a year’s tides at one location. A person performing the same calculations by hand would require hundreds of days to perform the work. The machine is 10.8 feet (3.3 m) long, 6.2 feet (1.9 m) high, and 2.0 feet (0.61 m) wide and weighs approximately 2,500 pounds (1134 kg). The operator powers the machine with a hand crank.

To say we live in tumultuous times is an understatement. But is it one we could have predicted? Prognostication has always interested humanity. Who wouldn’t like to know the future? We’re always looking for signs and pathways from the historical (Nostradamus) to the sketchy (astrologers and palm readers). We want to be prepared and know what to expect. Data is now the currency of prediction. The stock market and politicians rely on past performances and historical trends to predict market swings and elections. But as we’ve learned, polls often fail to tell us what’s coming. It’s not the data; it’s the interpretation that fails us.

 

I look at a person’s past behavior, whether a friend or a public figure, to predict what they will do or say—how they will act. People are generally consistent. But I see it only as a guide, and sometimes I’m wrong. But a general sense is good enough for me. It’s a way of protecting myself and my expectations.

 

In 2000, Radiohead released their album, Kid A. It was a massive reset for them. “Kid A was Radiohead’s first No. 1 album in the U.S. Its foreboding music and non sequitur lyrics were off-putting to critics and fans at first. But today, they evoke the feeling of everyday life, from ‘glitchy cell reception’ and ‘decontextualized social-media updates’ to ‘the modern reality of omnipresent technological interconnectivity at the expense of genuine human connection,’” says music critic Steven Hyden in his book, This Isn’t Happening.

 

In a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, Hyden says, “When you heard the album in 2000, it didn’t make sense—as rock music, as a Radiohead record, even as songs. But when I listen to it now, it feels like what it’s like to experience daily life. We live in this world where we’re being inundated with information.” The 21-year-old Kid A conveys the destabilization we feel now. “We can’t really take it all in. We absorb as much as we can, the best we can, and we assume we’re right in the conclusions we make.”

 

Saul Bass’ 1968 iconic short film, Why Man Creates, celebrates the creative spirit, one that can sustain us as we traverse those ups and downs. The film notes the cyclic nature of our lives and humanity throughout. But there is one scene that always stops me when I come to it, a digression in the storyline in which two snails are talking with each other. One says to the other: “Have you ever thought that radical ideas threaten institutions, then become institutions, and in turn reject radical ideas which threaten institutions?” For one sentence, this packs quite a punch. This is the recurring nature of our civilization and our lives. A novel idea threatens accepted institutions and meets with resistance. Eventually, that idea may supplant the traditional thought until another discovery comes along and jeopardizes the sanctity of that belief. And, once again, it is met with resistance. People’s lives are made better or destroyed along this fault line.

 

Capitalism is a perfect example of this type of adjustment. For over a century, it has referred to an economic system in which privately or corporately owned companies produce products and services sustained by the accumulation and reinvestment of profits. During the duality of the Cold War, it was the bulwark against communism. Now, many, including politicians like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and CEOs such as Ray Dalio, Co-Chief Investment Officer & Chairman of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, are reimagining capitalism. Income inequality is at one of its highest points in our history. Each wants to restructure the system to reduce the profits going to mostly CEOs and stockholders (today American CEOs make 351 times more than workers; in 1965, it was only 15 to one) while including companies’ workers in the profits. This is a hard sell on Wall Street. And, along with other initiatives that aim to redistribute our country’s wealth, conservatives call this socialism. Fervent opposition greets the new idea that challenges the old paradigm.

 

Boomers like myself have lived history. We’ve experienced many of society’s cycles. Sometimes we’ve been taken to a precipice like the Cuban Missile Crisis or a shared sorrow like the assassination of John F. Kennedy or 9/11. And, because of that experience, we assume that as shocking as such events can be, we will bounce back. That’s the way it was. But is that the way it is now?

 

When I was young, the pace of these phases was slower than it is today. There were sharp jags every so often, but our culture’s main direction, while often chaotic, wasn’t inundated with the amount of conflicting information we receive today. The speed of change has accelerated so much that many try to put their feet on the brake pedal. I often hear my fellow Boomers wax poetic about the 1960s and 1970s (which were anything but optimistic). Time has a way of leveling those good and bad times. Our children, who’ve only experienced our current pace, are not immune to its effects. Depression and suicide amongst teens and young adults are at an all-time high.

 

Opposing messages bombard us hourly. Not only is this broadcasted to us, we actively engage each other with these contradictory ideas via social media. Boom, boom, boom. It’s debilitating. Today’s contradiction: should we get COVID booster shots? The FDA’s decision to greenlight it for people over 65 is far from a firm YES! The CDC is still monitoring the situation, and there is still a question of whether the science supports it. And, if so, when will we know? We’re looking for an answer now when we may not have one yet. Politicians and federal and state governments haven’t adjusted to this new norm any better.

 

The pandemic presents us with an ongoing dilemma. Forget the anti-vaxxers and vaccine-hesitants for a second. Even if you believe in science and the efficacy of vaccines, this is unfamiliar territory. Science isn’t “facts.” It represents a process by which we learn facts. And these facts can change. So, scientists may not know the answers or may differ in their opinions. And, as new information becomes available, they may even change their minds. Many accuse Dr. Anthony Fauci of flip-flopping when all he’s doing is altering his opinion based on updated findings. When scientific inquiry meets public expectations, anger ensues. For people expecting answers, this makes them anxious and suspicious. After a year and a half, many are tired and stressed with nothing definitive to go on. In the spring, we thought we might see the end of the pandemic. Euphoria broke out with talk of a new “Roaring 20s.” Then, along came the delta variant. Once again, we’re trapped in this sped-up loop of additional problems and updated solutions supplanting old ones over and over.

 

This acceleration of change and influx of ideas has led to greater polarization. The Constitution tells us we’re a nation of individuals with personal rights. But look what’s happening when we plant our feet firmly in our belief systems and cling to our biases. We aren’t agile enough to live with so many unknowns, so many buckle down. Our system of governance is not changing to meet this new reality and engender confidence. Our inability to address the pressing issues that divide us (affordable health care, reasonable gun control, addressing mental health, teaching critical thinking, just to name a few) led to the authoritarian presidency of Donald Trump. The Republican Party’s platform, based entirely on opposition, has kept us in the same place even after Trump has left office. Radiohead predicted this dystopian world. And here it is.

 

Can we acknowledge the truth of our lives right now? Unlike the game “Truth or Dare,” this is both a truth and a dare. The truth is, we are in the vortex where one idea challenges another multiple times a day. We’re overwhelmed and insecure. And that insecurity has consequences that exacerbate solutions. It’s not the data; it’s how we interpret it that’s important.

 

I’m also daring us to accept and use this reality to alter our lives. Not only must we survive this chaos, but we can also change our country’s trajectory by our own actions. If we don’t, we might lose it all.

  

Feel free to pass this poster on. It's free to download here (click on the down arrow just to the lower right of the image).

 

See the rest of the posters from the Chamomile Tea Party! Digital high res downloads are free here (click the down arrow on the lower right side of the image). Other options are available. And join our Facebook group.

 

Follow the history of our country's political intransigence from 2010-2020 through a seven-part exhibit of these posters on Google Arts & Culture.

Many predicted the demise of conventional MBTs with the introduction of various smaller, lighter vehicles with nearly equivalent firepower, such as the CV-120A3 seen together with the Leo 2A8N here. The old MBTs have however proven their value in numerous conflicts, thus they remain the NDC's principal armoured fighting vehicle, and neither of the NDC's member states have any plans to withdraw the Leopards from active duty.

On what was predicted to be one of the worst days of the year for the leaf fall an extra Rail Head Treatment Train (RHTT) runs covering approximately half of the planned route before returning to Tonbridge Engineers Sidings just over an hour early.

 

According to Realtime Trains the route and timings were;

Tonbridge Engineers Sdn...0730.............0730....................RT

Tonbridge [TON] A................0732/0742..NoRep/0740.....2E

Paddock Wood 2...................0750.............0747....................3E

Maidstone West [MDW] 1.....0816..............0806.................10E

Cuxton [CUX]..........................0834.............0827....................7E

Strood [SOO] 3.......................0841/0847...0836/0839........8E

Cuxton [CUX] 2......................0851..............0843....................8E

Maidstone West [MDW] 2....0908.............0905...................3E

Paddock Wood 2...................0925.............0920 1/2.............4E

Tonbridge [TON] U...............0935.............0934.....................1E

Sevenoaks [SEV] 2................0947/0953..NoRep/0953.....RT

Orpington [ORP] 4.................1002..............1003.....................1L

Petts Wood Junction............1004..............1006....................2L

Bickley Junction[XLY]..........1006..............1007......................1L

Shortlands Junction..............1012...............1012.....................RT

Beckenham Junction ..........1017................1013 1/2...............3E

Beckenham Junction 3........1028..............1023.....................5E

Shortlands Junction..............1030..............1026....................4E

Bickley Junction[XLY]..........1033 1/2........1032......................1E

Bickley Junction[XLY]..........1130 1/2.........1237..................66L

Swanley [SAY] 2.....................1139 1/2.........1039..................60E

Otford Junction[XOT]...........1150 1/2.........1049..................61E

Maidstone East [MDE] 2.......1213 1/2.........1138...................85E

Otford Junction[XOT]...........1325..............1219...................66E

Swanley [SAY] 1......................1336...............1227 1/2...........68E

St Mary Cray Junction..........1340..............1232..................68E

Swanley [SAY] 4.....................1355..............1243..................72E

Otford Junction[XOT]...........1405..............1302..................63E

Sevenoaks [SEV] 3................1414................1311 1/2.............62E

Tonbridge [TON] 2................1423/1423....1326/NoRep...57E

Tonbridge Engineers Sdn...1426..............1330..................56E

 

Predicted weather is cold, cold, COLD! Maybe "moonshine" will be needed to keep us warm? I'll start with a fire and wine.

(20190204_172023SunsetbyNewparkHUSTflickr020919)

While predicting where the Cranes will spend the night is always an uncertain undertaking, we have found that this shallow lake just off the tour-route road through this refuge is a good spot ot watch. The Cranes often seek additional protection offered by the water... it makes it more difficult for predators to sneak up on the roosting birds. While sometimes this lake draws a blank on such activity, we have often been rewarded by scenes such as this where the incoming birds are silhouetted against a grorious western sky. These conditions allow for a fast enough shutter speed to result in a sharp image. The silhouette show lasts for at least a half hour, and the bird continue their arrivals long after it's too dark for photography.

 

IMG_4293; Sandhill Cranes

As you can see, the Hungarian Vizsla dog did not stay on the bench for very long.

A & W on a Park Bench with Colorful Tiles (most likely made by children). This was taken by my daughter in early 2012 and enhanced by me in early 2016. I use some oil paint technique sometimes partly because it is artistic, and partly because the mood of what is happening and the setting are more important to me than the exact identity of the children.

  

(P1010858-A&W&VizslaDogonbenchpainterlyflickr010916)

  

Film eFex Pro: nostalgic.

 

Riis Park, Rockaway, Queens, NY

NASA image acquired December 3, 2012

 

As predicted, Typhoon Bopha made landfall on the Philippine island of Mindanao overnight December 3–4, 2012. Known in the Philippines as Pablo, the storm was blamed for 43 deaths and 25 injuries as of December 4, according to the Philippine Daily Inquirer.

 

(To view the high res or to read more go to: 1.usa.gov/XnYhVG)

 

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi NPP satellite acquired this image around 1:12 a.m. local time on December 4 (17:12 UTC on December 3). This image is from the VIIRS “day-night band,” which detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses filtering techniques to observe signals such as gas flares, auroras, wildfires, city lights, and reflected moonlight.

 

Bopha remained a powerful typhoon as it made landfall on Mindanao, retaining a distinct eye and spiral shape as storm clouds stretched over the eastern part of the island. Unisys Weather reported that Bopha carried super-typhoon strength at the time it was coming ashore. William Straka, associate researcher at the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, estimated that the storm spanned at least 1,677 kilometers (1,042 miles).

 

Bopha lost some strength after making landfall. On December 4 (late in the evening in the Philippines), the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that the storm had maximum sustained winds of 95 knots (175 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 115 knots (215 kilometers per hour)—still a fierce storm, but weakened since the previous day. The JTWC projected storm track showed Bopha continuing its movement toward the west-northwest, passing over the southern Philippines toward the South China Sea.

 

NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using VIIRS day-night band data from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership. Suomi NPP is the result of a partnership between NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Department of Defense. Caption by Michon Scott.

 

Instrument: Suomi NPP - VIIRS

 

Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

 

NASA image use policy.

 

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission.

 

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The predicted trajectory of Alpha Centauri A (orange) and B (red), superimposed onto an image taken with the SOFI instrument on ESOâs New Technology Telescope (NTT) and the NACO instrument on the VLT. It shows the conjunction with the star S5 (the brightest star in the NACO image). In the background a Digitised Sky Survey 2 image is shown.

 

More information: www.eso.org/public/images/ann16075a/

 

Credit:

P. Kervella et al. (CNRS / U. de Chile / Observatoire de Paris / LESIA)/ESO

How much does the weather forecast influence your upcoming trips?

 

I'm not sure why I check the weather before I take off on a portaging trip. Seriously. The most obvious reason is that it always seems to be wrong. I'm not sure whether it's just my observation, but it seems like weather is being predicted way too sensationally lately. (How many "Storms of the Century can there really be?.) Thunderstorms, heavy rain, or even tornadoes on the screen with big red warning graphics, sometimes with silly-ominous animations. And so we bunker down, get the emergency supplies out and even cancel trips, only to have a bit of rain show up.

 

I suppose it's better to be safe than sorry. Giving yourself a lot of extra time wait out whatever weather might happen is the most productive thing you can do. And obviously you want to bring the right gear and be prepared for the worse, just in case. Better to bring it and not need it than want for it. I often have to remind myself of that when I'm carrying all that extra bad-weather gear over a portage on a beautiful hot day. Rain gear, for example, is scientifically proven to be much heavier when exposed to the sun.

 

But what's worse, tragic really, is when we see that bad weather forecast and thoughts of staying home creep into our heads. I'll fully admit that it happens to me. "Do I really want to deal with all that [insert troublesome weather]?"

 

Don't let that happen. (Well, maybe for the extreme stuff, like tornadoes or volcanic eruptions and such.)

 

Some really interesting stuff happens, even if the bad weather does come. (Again, as long as you're ready for it.) The first thing you'll realize is that you'll often have the place to yourself. Then you'll discover new interesting aspects of being outdoors. With rain often comes moody fog, sometimes fantastic light shows in the sky, but definitely some great colours before and after the rain comes. At least you can enjoy the red-in-the-morning before the sailor-take-warning.

 

When it's cold, especially with some wetness, it can make things really inconvenient. But then again, with a couple of layers, a nice warm fire, it's like a power-up to experiencing a warm cup of coffee.

 

And then there's the stories. Sure you might get a little wet or a little cold or muddy or whatever, but when was the last time you didn't come back with a great memory to share under those conditions?

 

When I need to convince myself I should take that trip even though the weather might be bad, I think of all those things put together. With cold keeping all the people away, the rain bringing cool fog and enhancing the lighting, the possible colour shows in the sky, I just know I'm going to come home with some great photos.

 

Once I think of the photos (like this one) and the stories I might come home with, I don't entertain those thoughts of staying home for one more second.

 

(Well maybe Volcanoes. I think volcanoes would keep me home. Especially if they were predicted here in Ontario.)

Pythia predicts a good year for wildflowers on Gaia. ;-)

 

Much better large on black.

 

Processing note: To create a bit of diffuse glow I copied the main layer, blurred with Gaussian blur at about 18 px; and then blended with soft light and turned down opacity of the layer to suit. Not really Orton, but similar.

Visit to the Studebaker National Museum on April 25, 2012. This is a fantastic museum with a wonderful collection of classics.

 

Packard's last concept car was quite a flamboyant one. Designed by Richard Teague and built by Ghia of Italy. 1956 Packard Predictor

 

All of my classic car photos can be found here: Car Collections

 

Press "L" for a larger image on black.

These components perform key computations for Tide Predicting Machine No. 2, a special purpose mechanical analog computer for predicting the height and time of high and low tides. The tide prediction formula implemented by the machine includes the addition of a series of cosine terms. The triangular metal pieces are part of slotted yoke cranks which convert circular motion to a vertical motion that traces a sinusoid. Each slotted yoke crank is connected by a shaft to a pulley, which causes the pulley to follow the sinusoidal motion. A chain going over and under pulleys sums each of their deflections to compute the tide.

 

The U.S. government used Tide Predicting Machine No. 2 from 1910 to 1965 to predict tides for ports around the world. The machine, also known as “Old Brass Brains,” uses an intricate arrangement of gears, pulleys, chains, slides, and other mechanical components to perform the computations.

 

A person using the machine would require 2-3 days to compute a year’s tides at one location. A person performing the same calculations by hand would require hundreds of days to perform the work. The machine is 10.8 feet (3.3 m) long, 6.2 feet (1.9 m) high, and 2.0 feet (0.61 m) wide and weighs approximately 2,500 pounds (1134 kg). The operator powers the machine with a hand crank.

Aurora predictors are not always right, it seems. It was the first crystal clear night in several weeks. The waning crescent moon was a long way from rising. I checked my favourite aurora predictor (softservenews.com) and it called for an "active" aurora night (KP level 4). However, every time I checked the current status, it told me "quiet" (level 0). I decided to head out and admire the starfield instead.

 

The temperature was a crisp -25 C. Walking out onto the ice with my dog, Friend, I found a good location angled towards the setting spiral arm with some decent foreground interest. Setting up these shots is tricky because it's impossible to compose through either the viewfinder or the live view. You have to guess, take a test shot, recompose, test again, and repeat.

 

As I was kneeling to shoot, the ice let out some rolling cracks, booms, and moans which I could feel beneath me. Friend was most unsettled by this, which added an interesting dimension to my shooting: I had to spend the duration of each long exposure comforting her. In truth, it was just as good for me as for her, because those surreal ice noises echoing through the crisp night isolation were very disconcerting.

 

Winter is great for night shoots, because the snow really does a great job reflecting starlight. In no small part on this night, Jupiter's glow really helped to set the snow aglow. It is really humbling to consider that the the photons lighting up the snow at my feet left the sun, traveled almost 800 million kilometers to Jupiter, reflected off of it's atmosphere and gassy layers, and traveled another 600 million kilometers back to us, a journey of about an hour and 15 minutes.

 

This image was made of one 30 second exposure for the sky and a longer bulb exposure for the foreground (about 2 minutes).

It was predicted the moon will turn red due to the moon passed through the Earth's shadow (midnight 10 Dec 2011). La Perouse, Sydney.

 

See where this picture was taken. [?]

One can consider the presentation of this spectacular hardtop coupe as an ultimate afford to gain attention of the audience to persuade them for buying a Packard. The financial position of Packard was terrible in 1956. But it wasn't much of a help.

Richard 'Dick' Teague (Los Angeles, 1923-1991) designed the Predictor. It was built at Carrozzeria Ghia, Torino in Italy on a Clipper platform. In ninety days the Italians managed to get this project ready, just in time for the Chicago Car Show.

 

The Predictor had all kinds of new automotive features, like tilting headlights, roof doors rolled back when opening the door, lowering back window, swiveling seats, dashboard design which followed the hood profile, a power operated trunk lid, and a wraparound windshield that curved into the roof.

Many car brands copied several novelties: the grille at the 1958 Edsel, the roof line at the 1958 Lincoln Premier, the rear bumper at the 1958 Oldsmobile, opera windows or portholes in the rear pillar at the 1957 Thunderbird, and the headlights at the 1962 Corvette.

 

Only one Predictor was made. It still exists and is on display at the Studebaker National Museum, South Bend, Indiana (see photo).

 

6128 cc V8 engine.

Production Packard Predictor: 1956.

 

Image source:

Video still from a movie of a visit to the Studebaker National Museum, South Bend, Indiana, by OldModelTGuy.

Seen on YouTube.

 

Halfweg, July 16, 2024.

 

© 2024 Sander Toonen Halfweg | All Rights Reserved

Glorious sunsets predicted with all the volcanic ash in the atmosphere. Last night was total cloud cover tonight was the opposite - not a cloud in the sky. You need a bit of cloud about 40% to get a good sunset. Mr Swan wasn't too happy about our presence.

 

BTW if you've viewed this large it looks like I have a very dirty sensor, its actually the fairly slow shutter speed catching all the flies and bugs in flight.

This picture considers a simple quasi-adaptive constrained control strategy that can be used for fin, rudder, or combined fin-rudder stabilizers. The strategy estimates the parameters of a linear output disturbance model for the wave induced roll motion using roll and roll rate measurements taken before closing the control loop. This model is then used to implement a constrained predictive control strategy. The strategy can thus be adaptive with respect to changes in the sea state and sailing conditions. The work also explores the benefit of penalizing roll accelerations as well as roll angle in the associated cost.In a previous work, we have proposed the use of constrained model predictive control (MPC) to

address the control system design problem forfin and/or rudder-based stabilizers- see Perez etal. (2000) and Perez and Goodwin (2003). This approach offers a unified framework for minimizing the impact of roll motion on ship performance,handling input and output constraints and

also provides a means for implementing adaptive

strategies.In order to implement the proposed MPC strategy,

two models are necessary: a model describing the dynamic behavior of ship motion due to control action (rudder and/or fins) and a model describing the wave induced roll motion. The first model can be obtained using system identification

techniques together with tests performed in calm waters-see, for example, Zhou et al. (1994). This model should be updated for different ship speeds. The wave induced roll motion can be modelled using a second order shaping filter, which is then

used to predict the wave induced roll motion in the MPC Formulation. This model cannot be es timated before hand since it depends on the sea state and sailing conditions (speed and encounter angle.) Adaptation is necessary.

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, to propose a simple way to estimate the parameters of the wave-induced roll model; and thus, extend our previous work. Second, to incorporate a penalty on the roll acceleration in the associated cost. The effect of roll acceleration on ship performance has long been recognized in the naval

environment (Warhurst, 1969). Nonetheless, direct roll acceleration reduction has often been omitted from

stabilizer control system design in literature and

reported practical implementations. is shown in Figure 1. Because the control will be ultimately implemented on a computer, we will adopt a discrete-time framework to describe the models and control system design problem.

In many business organizations, there is still much confusion about the role of strategic brand development and brand management and who within the organization should lead it.

Brand strategy and brand management is too important to be left to marketing people. That’s my spin on the famous David Packard quote (as in Hewlett Packard) about marketing being too important an activity to the well-being of a business enterprise to be left in the hands of marketing people alone.

Business leaders have notoriously looked at marketing with a critical eye. Marketing is not a “hard discipline” like engineering, sales and finance. Business leaders love quantified activities that facilitate a predictable return. Marketing doesn’t provide predictable returns. And in today’s social media, permission and privacy driven world, marketing is even more suspect by consumers. Customers want real, authentic connections and engagement to brands, not more marketing and selling. Brand strategy and brand management is not a sub-discipline of marketing. As brand strategy and brand management becomes more essential for marketplace success, enlightened business leaders have moved it further away (and upstream) from the core competencies within marketing organizations. Yet for many organizations, brand strategy and brand management is an activity mostly managed within the marketing discipline. Consequently everybody in the marketing profession does “branding” these days. Branding gets bundled into a plethora of tactical marketing activities like PR, advertising, social media, sales promotion, packaging and marketing communications. Brand strategy and brand management is not marketing, advertising or communications. This by no means diminishes the essential role of marketing for creating awareness and demand. Brand strategy and brand management is not about creating awareness, it’s about guiding the quality and relevance of organizational behavior in serving a specific group of customers/consumers. It’s a more sacred and strategic process defining the who, the what, and why an organization or a product exists in the first place – beyond money making. Brand strategy and brand management is about the soul of the thing–the intangible, the unseen, the meaning rather than the physical. Brands make promises to people. Break the sacred promise and no amount of clever marketing will rebuild lost trust. Just ask Netflix or Tropicana what can happen to your business when the bonds of trust breaks. The value of brands lies in the perception customers have in their minds about what makes a brand matter to them. To matter nowadays, requires brands build deeply rooted emotional connections and never fail to deliver on the promise. The discipline of brand strategy and brand management is centered in creating a set of unchanging, universal principles that guides the behavior of organizations and the products they bring to the marketplace over the life of the enterprise. It’s not about informing the next advertising campaign. Brand strategy and brand management is a top down discipline. The principles that guide the strategy and management of a brand have to be driven by the leadership of the organization. Brand leadership begins with business leadership. Business strategy informs brand strategy which, in turn, informs marketing tactics. When marketing organizations (or worse their advertising agencies) attempt to define and lead brand strategy, it becomes more marketing. Consumers / customers loathe marketing. Marketing now gets in the way of real engagement with a brand. Marketing needs to be baked into brand strategy, not the other way around. Business leaders must drive brand strategy. Leaders determine the higher purpose, vision and values of the business enterprise, not their marketing organizations. Consequently, when leaders have clarity on “why” their brand exists, it’s much easier and more effective to weave the elements of brand strategy into the fabric of the organizational culture and guide the behavior of the organization at every customer touch point in the value chain. Brand strategy and brand management is internal, marketing is external. Brand strategy informs everyone within the organization why they exist and matter to people, what values they share, what markets they serve, what products they innovate and bring to market, what processes they use, and what experiences they are to create for customers and the community at large. Without this solid foundation firmly established, marketing organizations (and their agency partners) have nothing to go on – no map, no guidance, and no discipline – an aimless ship adrift without a rudder. Brand strategy and brand management is the rudder that steers the ship. This today's picture continues to have to make do with fewer resources to accomplish more

objectives. Competition for scare resources is an annual statistic challenge. To work without an effective formal strategy is to sail without a rudder :) A rudder is a primary control surface used to steer a ship, boat, submarine, hovercraft, aircraft, or other conveyance that moves through a fluid medium (generally air or water). On an aircraft the rudder is used primarily to counter adverse yaw and p-factor and is not the primary control used to turn the airplane. A rudder operates by redirecting the fluid past the hull (watercraft) or fuselage, thus imparting a turning or yawing motion to the craft. In basic form, a rudder is a flat plane or sheet of material attached with hinges to the craft's stern, tail, or after end. Often rudders are shaped so as to minimize hydrodynamic or aerodynamic drag. On simple watercraft, a tiller—essentially, a stick or pole acting as a lever arm—may be attached to the top of the rudder to allow it to be turned by a helmsman. In larger vessels, cables, pushrods, or hydraulics may be used to link rudders to steering wheels. In typical aircraft, the rudder is operated by pedals via mechanical linkages or hydraulics.

Chinese naval developments occurred far earlier than similar western technology.

 

The first recorded use of rudder technology in the West was in 1180. Chinese pottery models of sophisticated slung axial rudders (enabling the rudder to be lifted in shallow waters) dating from the 1st century have been found. Early rudder technology (c 100 AD) also included the easier to use balanced rudder (where part of the blade was in front of the steering post), first adopted by England in 1843 – some 1700 years later. In another naval development, fenestrated rudders were common on Chinese ships by the 13th century which were not introduced to the west until 1901. Fenestration is the adding of holes to the rudder where it does not affect the steering, yet make the rudder easy to turn. This innovation finally enabled European torpedo boats to use their rudders while traveling at high speed (about 30 knots).Junks employed stern-mounted rudders centuries before their adoption in the West for the simple reason that Western hull forms, with their pointed sterns, obviated a centreline steering system until technical developments in Scandinavia created the first, iron mounted, pintle and gudgeon 'barn door' western examples in the early 12th century CE. A second reason for this slow development was that the side rudders in use were, contrary to a lot of very ill-informed opinion, extremely efficient.[17] Thus the junk rudder's origin, form and construction was completely different in that it was the development of a centrally mounted stern steering oar, examples of which can also be seen in Middle Kingdom (c.2050-1800 BCE) Egyptian river vessels. It was an innovation which permitted the steering of large ships and due to its design allowed height adjustment according to the depth of the water and to avoid serious damage should the junk ground. A sizable junk can have a rudder that needed up to twenty members of the crew to control in strong weather. In addition to using the sail plan to balance the junk and take the strain off the hard to operate and mechanically weakly attached rudder, some junks were also equipped with leeboards or dagger boards. The world's oldest known depiction of a stern-mounted rudder can be seen on a pottery model of a junk dating from before the 1st century AD,though some scholars think this may be a steering oar - a possible interpretation given that the model is of a river boat that was probably towed or poled. From sometime in the 13th to 15th centuries, many junks began incorporating "fenestrated" rudders (rudders with large diamond-shaped holes in them), probably adopted to lessen the force needed to direct the steering of the rudder. The rudder is reported to be the strongest part of the junk. In the Tiangong Kaiwu "Exploitation of the Works of Nature" (1637), Song Yingxing wrote, "The rudder-post is made of elm, or else of langmu or of zhumu." The Ming author also applauds the strength of the langmu wood as "if one could use a single silk thread to hoist a thousand jun or sustain the weight of a mountain landslide."

Generally, a rudder is "part of the steering apparatus of a boat or ship that is fastened outside the hull", that is denoting all different types of oars, paddles, and rudders.[1] More specifically, the steering gear of ancient vessels can be classified into side-rudders and stern-mounted rudders, depending on their location on the ship. A third term, steering oar, can denote both types. In a Mediterranean context, side-rudders are more specifically called quarter-rudders as the later term designates more exactly the place where the rudder was mounted. Stern-mounted rudders are uniformly suspended at the back of the ship in a central position.

Although Lawrence Mott in his comprehensive treatment of the history of the rudder,Timothy Runyan,the Encyclopædia Britannica, and The Concise Oxford Dictionary of English Etymology classify a steering oar as a rudder, Joseph Needham, Lefèbre des Noëttes, K.S. Tom, Chung Chee Kit, S.A.M. Adshead, John K. Fairbank, Merle Goldman, Frank Ross, and Leo Block state that the steering oar used in ancient Egypt and Rome was not a true rudder and define stern-mounted rudder used in China as the true rudder;the steering oar has the capacity to interfere with handling of the sails (limiting any potential for long ocean-going voyages) while it was fit more for small vessels on narrow, rapid-water transport; the rudder did not disturb the handling of the sails, took less energy to operate by its helmsman, was better fit for larger vessels on ocean-going travel, and first appeared in ancient China during the 1st century AD.In regards to the ancient Phoenician (1550–300 BC) use of the steering oar without a rudder in the Mediterranean, Leo Block (2003) writes: A single sail tends to turn a vessel in an upwind or downwind direction, and rudder action is required to steer a straight course. A steering oar was used at this time because the rudder had not yet been invented. With a single sail, a frequent movement of the steering oar was required to steer a straight course; this slowed down the vessel because a steering oar (or rudder) course correction acts like a brake. The second sail, located forward, could be trimmed to offset the turning tendency of the main sail and minimize the need for course corrections by the steering oar, which would have substantially improved sail performance.

 

The steering oar or steering board is an oversized oar or board to control the direction of a ship or other watercraft prior to the invention of the rudder. It is normally attached to the starboard side in larger vessels, though in smaller ones it is rarely, if ever, attached. Stern-mounted steering oar of an Egyptian riverboat depicted in the Tomb of Menna (c. 1422-1411 BC) Rowing oars set aside for steering appeared on large Egyptian vessels long before the time of Menes (3100 BC). In the Old Kingdom (2686 BC-2134 BC) as much as five steering oars are found on each side of passenger boats. The tiller, at first a small pin run through the stock of the steering oar, can be traced to the fifth dynasty (2504–2347 BC).Both the tiller and the introduction of an upright steering post abaft reduced the usual number of necessary steering oars to one each side.[18] Apart from side-rudders, single rudders put on the stern can be found in a number of tomb models of the time, particularly during the Middle Kingdom when tomb reliefs suggests them commonly employed in Nile navigation. The first literary reference appears in the works of the Greek historian Herodot (484-424 BC), who had spent several months in Egypt: "They make one rudder, and this is thrust through the keel", probably meaning the crotch at the end of the keel (see right pic "Tomb of Menna"). In Iran, oars mounted on the side of ships for steering are documented from the 3rd millennium BCE in artwork, wooden models, and even remnants of actual boats. Steering oar of a Roman boat, 1st century AD (RG-Museum, Cologne). Roman navigation used sexillie quarter steering oars which went in the Mediterranean through a long period of constant refinement and improvement, so that by Roman times ancient vessels reached extraordinary sizes.The strength of the steering oar lay in its combination of effectiveness, adaptability and simpleness. Roman quarter steering oar mounting systems survived mostly intact through the medieval period. By the first half of the 1st century AD, steering gear mounted on the stern were also quite common in Roman river and harbour craft as proved from reliefs and archaeological finds (Zwammderdam, Woerden 7). A tomb plaque of Hadrianic age shows a harbour tug boat in Ostia with a long stern-mounted oar for better leverage. Interestingly, the boat already featured a spritsail, adding to the mobility of the harbour vessel.[26] Further attested Roman uses of stern-mounted steering oars includes barges under tow, transport ships for wine casks, and diverse other ship types. Also, the well-known Zwammerdam find, a large river barge at the mouth of the Rhine, featured a large steering gear mounted on the stern.[30][31] According to new research, the advanced Nemi ships, the palace barges of emperor Caligula (37-41 AD), may have featured 14 m long rudders.

 

An Eastern Han (25–220 AD) Chinese pottery boat fit for riverine and maritime sea travel, with an anchor at the bow, a steering rudder at the stern, roofed compartments with windows and doors, and miniature sailors. An early Song Dynasty (960–1279) painting on silk of two Chinese cargo ships accompanied by a smaller boat, by Guo Zhongshu (c. 910–977 AD); notice the large sternpost-mounted rudder on the ship shown in the foreground The world's oldest known depiction of a sternpost-mounted rudder can be seen on a pottery model of a Chinese junk dating from the 1st century AD during the Han Dynasty, predating their appearance in the West by a thousand years.[7][10][33] In China, miniature models of ships that feature steering oars have been dated to the Zhou Dynasty (c. 1050–256 BC).[7] Sternpost-mounted rudders started to appear on Chinese ship models starting in the 1st century AD.[7] However, the Chinese continued to use the steering oar long after they invented the rudder, since the steering oar still had limited practical use for inland rapid-river travel.[10] One of oldest known depiction of a stern-mounted rudder in China can be seen on a 2-foot-long tomb pottery model of a junk dating from the 1st century AD, during the Han Dynasty (202 BC-220 AD).[8][34] It was discovered in Guangzhou in an archaeological excavation carried out by the Guangdong Provincial Museum and Academia Sinica of Taiwan in 1958. Within decades, several other Han Dynasty ship models featuring rudders were found in archaeological excavations. The first solid written reference to the use of a rudder without a steering oar dates to the 5th century.

Chinese rudders were not supported by pintle-and-gudgeon as in the Western tradition; rather, they were attached to the hull by means of wooden jaws or sockets, while typically larger ones were suspended from above by a rope tackle system so that they could be raised or lowered into the water.[36] Also, many junks incorporated "fenestrated rudders" (rudders with holes in them, supposedly allowing for better control). Detailed descriptions of Chinese junks during the Middle Ages are known from various travellers to China, such as Ibn Battuta of Tangier, Morocco and Marco Polo of Venice, Italy. The later Chinese encyclopedist Song Yingxing (1587–1666) and the 17th-century European traveler Louis Lecomte wrote of the junk design and its use of the rudder with enthusiasm and admiration. Pottery boat from Eastern Han Dynasty showing rudder Paul Johnstone and Sean McGrail state that the Chinese invented the "median, vertical and axial" sternpost-mounted rudder, and that such a kind of rudder preceded the pintle-and-gudgeon rudder found in the West by roughly a millennium.[33] However, Lawrence Mott points out that the method of mounting steering gear from the stern was well known in Mediterranean navigation by the time the practice appeared in Chinese ships.

 

Arab ships also used a sternpost-mounted rudder.On their ships "the rudder is controlled by two lines, each attached to a crosspiece mounted on the rudder head perpendicular to the plane of the rudder blade."The earliest evidence comes from the Ahsan al-Taqasim fi Marifat al-Aqalim ('The Best Divisions for the Classification of Regions') written by al-Muqaddasi in 985: The captain from the crow's nest carefully observes the sea. When a rock is espied, he shouts: "Starboard!" or 'Port!" Two youths, posted there, repeat the cry. The helmsman, with two ropes in his hand, when he hears the calls tugs one or the other to the right or left. If great care is not taken, the ship strikes the rocks and is wrecked.

 

Pintle-and-gudgeon rudder of the Hanseatic league flagship Adler von Lübeck (1567–1581), the largest ship in the world at its time. Oars mounted on the side of ships evolved into quarter rudders, which were used from antiquity until the end of the Middle Ages in Europe. As the size of ships and the height of the freeboards increased, quarter-rudders became unwieldy and were replaced by the more sturdy stern-mounted rudders with pintle and gudgeon attachment. While stern-mounted rudders were found in Europe on a wide range of vessels since Roman times, including light war galleys in Mediterranean, the oldest known depiction of a pintle-and-gudgeon rudder can be found on church carvings of Zedelgem and Winchester dating to around 1180. A ship's rudder carved in oak, 15th century, Bere Ferrers church, Devon. Heraldic badge of Cheyne and Willoughby families

Historically, the radical concept of the medieval pintle-and-gudgeon rudder did not come as a single invention into being. It presented rather a combination of ideas which each had been long around before: rudders mounted on the stern, iron hinges and the straight sternpost of northern European ships. While earlier rudders were mounted on the stern by the way of rudderposts or tackles, the iron hinges allowed for the first time to attach the rudder to the entire length of the sternpost in a really permanent fashion. However, its full potential could only to be realized after the introduction of the vertical sternpost and the full-rigged ship in the 14th century. From the age of discovery onwards, European ships with pintle-and-gudgeon rudders sailed successfully on all seven seas. Many historians' consensus considered the technology of stern-mounted rudder in Europe and Islam World, which was introduced by travelers in the Middle Ages, was transferred from China. However, Lawrence Mott in his master thesis stated that the method of attachment for rudders in the Chinese and European worlds differed from each other, leading him to doubt the spread of the Chinese system of attachment

 

Boat rudders may be either outboard or inboard. Outboard rudders are hung on the stern or transom. Inboard rudders are hung from a keel or skeg and are thus fully submerged beneath the hull, connected to the steering mechanism by a rudder post which comes up through the hull to deck level, often into a cockpit. Inboard keel hung rudders (which are a continuation of the aft trailing edge of the full keel) are traditionally deemed the most damage resistant rudders for off shore sailing. Better performance with faster handling characteristics can be provided by skeg hung rudders on boats with smaller fin keels. Rudder post and mast placement defines the difference between a ketch and a yawl, as these two-masted vessels are similar. Yawls are defined as having the mizzen mast abaft (i.e. "aft of") the rudder post; ketches are defined as having the mizzen mast forward of the rudder post. Small boat rudders that can be steered more or less perpendicular to the hull's longitudinal axis make effective brakes when pushed "hard over." However, terms such as "hard over," "hard to starboard," etc. signify a maximum-rate turn for larger vessels. Transom hung rudders or far aft mounted fin rudders generate greater moment and faster turning than more forward mounted keel hung rudders.

There is also the barrel type rudder where the ships screw is enclosed and can be swiveled to steer the vessel. Designers claim that this type of rudder on a smaller vessel will answer the helm faster.

 

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudder

Day 318 (v 15.0) - didn't suspect a thing

I'm guessing the sunrise on the Umhlanga - The FunShine Coast was non-existent this morning. Last night I predicted a lovely morning this Sunday / tomorrow to take a stroll on the promenade from Beverly Hills Hotel Umhlanga Rocks to the northern end.

 

Slip those trainers off and do the return trip on the beach. You will pass some lovely rocks, the life saving club where you may see nippers in action, the whalebone pier and then lighthouse at the bottom of The Beverley Hills Hotel.

 

Last Saturday we enjoyed high-tea at The Beverly Hills. You pay for what you get and the large tasty spread made its mark - I made sure that I had enough for lunch, tea and dinner :).

 

If you go early in the morning, fear a little less as there are patrolling guards.

 

Canon South Africa 6D from Orms fitted with 17-40L - F11, 0.5 sec, ISO 100

 

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#celebratedurban! #myballito #ilovedurban #5stardurban

 

Umhlanga Beach, South Africa

and YES, they cried a river!

Goldie came with a broom to wipe that decorating painting on the wall away and as predicted: they cried a river!

Ooh, it got vandalised! Yeh Baby, that's the nature of street art, if you want it clean and a allowance, go to mum and drink your milk!

_____________________________________

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Rain and thunderstorms predicted soon, but all OK at the moment

Given that the Monsoon rains is predicted to hit Kerala soon and assuming it may be several days that we in Kerala may see a bright sunrise, I decided to try for a sunrise shot today.But found that sky is already cloudy and Sun so shy to shine beam through the heavy clouds and display the colorful dance in the morning sky. This is what I got..

 

About The Monsoon Rains:

A Monsoon of the Indian subcontinent is among several geographically distributed observations of global monsoon taking place in the Indian subcontinent. In the subcontinent, it is one of oldest weather observations, an economically important weather pattern and the most anticipated weather event and unique weather phenomenon. Yet it is only partially understood and notoriously difficult to predict. Several theories have been proposed explaining the origin, the process, the strength, the variability, the distribution and the general vagaries of the monsoon of the Indian subcontinent, but understanding of the phenomenon and its predictability are still evolving. The unique geographical features of the subcontinent, along with associated atmospheric, oceanic and geophysical components, are extremely influential in ensuring the anticipated behavior for a monsoon in South Asia and the Indian subcontinent. Due to its effect on agriculture, flora and fauna and the general weather of India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc., among other economic, social and environmental effects, a monsoon is one of the most anticipated, followed and studied weather phenomena of the Indian subcontinent. It has significant impact on the overall well-being of subcontinent residents and has even been dubbed the "real finance minister of India".

Monsoon is a tropical phenomenon. Indian subcontinent, lying northwards of the equator up to the Himalayas and Hindukush, lies primarily in the tropical zone of the Northern Hemisphere. It involves winds blowing from the south-west direction (known as South-West Monsoon) from the Indian Ocean onto the Indian landmass during the months of June through September. These are generally rain-bearing winds, blowing from sea to land, and bring rains to most parts of the subcontinent. They split into two branches, the Arabian Sea Branch and the Bay of Bengal Branch near the southernmost end of the Indian Peninsula. They are eagerly awaited in most parts of India for their agricultural and economic importance.

 

Subsequently later in the year, around October, these winds reverse direction and start blowing from a north-easterly direction. Given their land to sea flow, from subcontinent onto the Indian Ocean, they have less moisture and bring rain to only limited parts of India like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. This is known as the North-East Monsoon. However, this rain is responsible for the rice bowls of South India. This mechanism completes the annual Monsoon cycle of the Indian subcontinent.

-Wikipedia

As predicted Delia won the beauty pageant and Bianca Pearl was first runner up.

Due to the predicted adverse weather conditions we decided to make the trip to Sand, Sea & Spray on the Saturday morning rather than the Friday night. I'm still not sure if this was a good decision or not. After an early start and a gruelling journey we arrived in an overcast Blackpool and finally managed to make our way to our painting location for about 2pm. We got to work straight away as it wasn't too wet or windy at that point. That was probably the first of our catalogue of mistakes. About 20 minutes later we had our first sustained downpour with accompanying wind which made a mockery of our attempts to paint the wall blue with masonry paint as it was dripping all over our painting and off the wall.

 

Not to be outdone by the weather we went to work on a second wall in our next brief window of opportunity whilst hopefully waiting for the other wall to dry before the rain closed in again and we had to retire to the safety of the car. By the end of the second 'little shower' the area was pretty much deserted but we soldiered on intent on getting it all finished. I won't bore you with our tireless struggle against our implements and the weather but suffice it to say it was tough. Paint was spilled. Stencils were ripped. Words were exchanged. We had to make the best of the situation.

 

With Elton John as our backing music (he was playing on the promenade) we proceeded with a hastily thought out rearrangement of our original plan which would, we hoped, gives us a decent result. After a little further work we finally managed to reach completion. Regardless of the inclement weather we still managed to have a good time and get our work done which, I think, was something to be proud of. It's just a shame that the UK weather in June isn't very dependable as well we remember from our various trips to Glastonbury (which brings on a nostalgic feeling as it would be on next weekend if it were taking place this year...)

 

Cheers

 

id-iom