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Edited visualization from the HRRR-Smoke model of where smoke from fires in Northern California were predicted to go.
Image source: earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/144190/which-way-will-th...
Original caption: By the time the U.S. Forest Service declared the Mendocino Complex Fire 100 percent contained in mid-September 2018, it had burned for nearly two months, destroyed 157 homes, and scorched more than 459,000 acres, making it the largest wildfire in California history. Wildfires in the state burned more than 1.3 million acres from January 1 through November 4, shrouding the region and, at times, whole swaths of the country, in smoke.
In the past, the behavior of such wildfires and their smoke plumes was notoriously difficult to forecast. “It was a challenge for the atmospheric models to know where a fire was, how active it was, and how much emissions it was putting into the atmosphere,” said Andy Edman, who oversees Western region wildfires for the National Weather Service. “It was sort of like having a family reunion. Most everyone is going to be acting normal, but wildfire behavior can be like your crazy uncle—erratic and difficult to predict.”
But a new experimental model that relies on data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA satellites has proven remarkably good at simulating the behavior of wildfire smoke. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Smoke model, or HRRR-Smoke, builds on NOAA’s existing HRRR weather model, which forecasts rain, wind, and thunderstorms. It ingests real-time data from the Joint Polar Satellite System’s Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 polar-orbiting satellites, as well as NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites.
The image on the top left, captured by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP, shows the Western United States in natural color in the afternoon on August 6, 2018, at the height of the Mendocino Complex Fire. On the top right is a HRRR-Smoke simulation from the same region at the same time.
Central to HRRR-Smoke is an important metric called fire radiative power. FRP is a measurement of the amount of heat released by a given fire in megawatts. A large fire, for example, might reach about 4,000 megawatts per pixel (750x750 meters). Calculating radiative power and where it is distributed can help scientists pinpoint the active front of a fire and predict the density and trajectory of the smoke it will emit.
The HRRR-smoke model combines FRP data with observations of wind speed, rain, and atmospheric temperature. It also includes vegetation maps because the more scientists know about what is burning, the better the simulation. (For instance, sagebrush burns differently than ponderosa pine.) These measurements are mapped to a three-dimensional grid that extends nearly 16 miles into the atmosphere. What results is a detailed forecast of the amount of smoke produced, the direction it should travel, and its plume height. HRRR-Smoke generates forecasts four times per day and looks ahead by 36 hours.
The forecasts include two key sets of predictions. “Near-surface smoke” refers to the smoke that will hover within 8 meters (26 feet) of the ground—the kind responsible for burning eyes and aggravated asthma. “Vertically integrated smoke” depicts all of the smoke in a vertical column, including smoke high in Earth’s atmosphere. That is the smoke you see at sunrise and sunset. The animation below shows a 36-hour forecast of vertically integrated smoke on August 6, 2018.
[Unfortunately, I was unable to upload this animated GIF to Flickr... - please see original site for image.]
“Near-surface smoke is one indicator of air pollution, but the smoke could also be at much higher altitudes,” said Ravan Ahmadov, the main developer of the HRRR-smoke model, and a research scientist at NOAA’s Earth Systems Research Laboratory and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences. “That’s important to know, because the smoke could affect visibility for aviation.” High-altitude smoke can also block incoming sunlight, which can cool air temperatures and interfere with solar energy production.
HRRR-Smoke is being used increasingly by forecasters and government agencies, but also by some local groups. During California’s Ferguson fire, the Department of Transportation used HRRR-Smoke simulations as part of its decision-making to suspend Amtrak rail service in the region. Likewise, the model was part of the National Park Service calculus when it closed parts of Yosemite.
On a local scale, schools in Utah referred to model forecasts when they opted to keep kids inside during recess and to cancel football games due to fires burning south of Provo. In Oregon, a youth swimming coach moved outdoor practice to an indoor pool after hearing the forecast.
“When we can tell people that the smoke is going to move in and hang around for a day, they can take smart actions to anticipate the event,” Edman said. “If you have a child with asthma, you’ll know to take precautions.”
The HRRR-Smoke model is still evolving. One limitation, Ahmadov said, is that each polar orbiting satellite passes each location in the continental United States just twice a day, and fires can spread and evolve rapidly during the time between those observations. He hopes to eventually incorporate data from geostationary satellites like GOES-16 and GOES-17, which have a lower spatial resolution but would scan the fires more often. The ultimate goal is to add smoke to the regular HRRR model used by the National Weather Service.
“In the next couple of years, I think we are going to see a lot of small, incremental improvements,” Edman said. “The model is not perfect, but all of the components came together this year, and the forecasts were pretty darn good.”
NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using VIIRS data from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership and HRRR-Smoke data. Story by Jenny Marder, Joint Polar Satellite System.
•The Model T was introduced on Oct. 1, 1908. It had a 20-horsepower, four-cylinder engine, reached a top speed of about 45 miles per hour, got about 13 to 21 miles per gallon of gasoline and weighed 1,200 pounds. It was the ninth of Henry Ford's production cars.
•More than 15,000,000 Model T's were built and sold. A modest ceremony on May 26, 1927, marked the formal end of Model T production.
•The first models were produced at a factory on Piquette Avenue in Detroit. Beginning in 1910, Model T's were built at a new Highland Park (Michigan) plant.
•Henry Ford's initiation of mass production of vehicles on the moving assembly line led to lower car prices and the $5 workday.
•The car was introduced with a price tag of $850. The Model T later sold for as little as $260, without extras, because of production savings Henry Ford passed on to customers.
•Henry Ford called the Model T "the universal car," a low-cost, reliable vehicle that could be maintained easily and could successfully travel the poor roads of the era.
•The Model T came in nine body styles, all on the same chassis.
•"Lizzie" was one of the most popular of the dozens of nicknames for the Model T.
•In 1914, Ford, with 13,000 employees, produced about 300,000 cars while 299 other companies with 66,350 employees produced about 280,000 vehicles.
Comments Please
The furthest model is (probably) a Hasegawa Harrier GR.3 with an Airmodels conversion kit, plus markings from Scale Aircraft Modelling magazine.
The Subaru Cherry Blossom Festival is an annual spring celebration of Japanese arts and culture organized by Japan America Society of Greater Philadelphia (JASGP), with tremendous support from title sponsor Subaru of America, Inc.
Featuring a variety of events throughout the city, this yearly festival brings a taste of Japan to Philadelphia and highlights the beauty of Japanese sakura—the flowering cherry trees that brighten city streets and parks with their distinctive pink and white blossoms.
Not sure what year this one is, possibly a 1915. Its some sort of specialty version as well with loads of extra seating, maybe a shuttle vehicle.
The Ford Model T (colloquially known as the Tin Lizzie, T‑Model Ford, 'Model T Ford', or T) is an automobile that was produced by Henry Ford's Ford Motor Company from October 1, 1908 to May 27, 1927.[1][2] It is generally regarded as the first affordable automobile, the car that opened travel to the common middle-class American; some of this was because of Ford's efficient fabrication, including assembly line production instead of individual hand crafting.[3] The Ford Model T was named the world's most influential car of the 20th century in an international poll.[4]
The Model T set 1908 as the historic year that the automobile became popular. The first production Model T was produced on August 12, 1908[5] and left the factory on September 27, 1908, at the Piquette Plant in Detroit, Michigan. On May 26, 1927, Henry Ford watched the 15 millionth Model T Ford roll off the assembly line at his factory in Highland Park, Michigan.[6]
There were several cars produced or prototyped by Henry Ford from the founding of the company in 1903 until the Model T was introduced. Although he started with the Model A, there were not 19 production models (A through T); some were only prototypes. The production model immediately before the Model T was the Model S,[7] an upgraded version of the company's largest success to that point, the Model N. The follow-up was the Ford Model A (rather than any Model U). Company publicity said this was because the new car was such a departure from the old that Henry wanted to start all over again with the letter A.
The Model T was the first automobile mass-produced on moving assembly lines with completely interchangeable parts, marketed to the middle class.[citation needed] Henry Ford said of the vehicle:
"I will build a car for the great multitude. It will be large enough for the family, but small enough for the individual to run and care for. It will be constructed of the best materials, by the best men to be hired, after the simplest designs that modern engineering can devise. But it will be so low in price that no man making a good salary will be unable to own one – and enjoy with his family the blessing of hours of pleasure in God's great open spaces."
Above summary is from Wikipedia