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The weather predictions for Sunday where quite bad, it was going to be a rainy day. Since it had started raining Saturday night and continued during the early morning we had no choose but to stay inside and play card games or read a book. Around ten o'clock it stopped raining and we decided to quickly go outside and just walk in the direction of a close by village, we were unsure whether it would stay dry or start raining again. We had past through a few little villages when we decided to move towards the river L'Allier. From the moment i stepped outside i noticed these snails had suddenly appeared all over the place, apparently snails love rain. When we reached the river we had a small picnic, afterwards we decided to checkout the river shore. After standing at the water side for a while i noticed what appeared to be a small flying leaf, i quickly switch my camera on and started zooming in on what i found to be an Buffalo treehopper. From the river we eventually started making our way back to the B&B.
Gautama Buddha, also known as Siddhārtha Gautama,[note 3] Shakyamuni,[note 4] or simply the Buddha, was a sage[3] on whose teachings Buddhism was founded.[web 2] He is believed to have lived and taught mostly in eastern India sometime between the sixth and fourth centuries BCE.[4][note 5]
The word Buddha means "awakened one" or "the enlightened one". "Buddha" is also used as a title for the first awakened being in an era. In most Buddhist traditions, Siddhartha Gautama is regarded as the Supreme Buddha (Pali sammāsambuddha, Sanskrit samyaksaṃbuddha) of our age.[note 6] Gautama taught a Middle Way between sensual indulgence and the severe asceticism found in the Sramana (renunciation) movement[5] common in his region. He later taught throughout regions of eastern India such as Magadha and Kośala.[4][6]
Gautama is the primary figure in Buddhism and accounts of his life, discourses, and monastic rules are believed by Buddhists to have been summarized after his death and memorized by his followers. Various collections of teachings attributed to him were passed down by oral tradition and first committed to writing about 400 years later.Scholars are hesitant to make unqualified claims about the historical facts of the Buddha's life. Most accept that he lived, taught and founded a monastic order during the Mahajanapada era in India during the reign of Bimbisara, the ruler of the Magadha empire, and died during the early years of the reign of Ajatshatru who was the successor of Bimbisara, thus making him a younger contemporary of Mahavira, the Jain teacher.[7] Apart from the Vedic Brahmins, Buddha's lifetime coincided with the flourishing of other influential sramana schools of thoughts like Ājīvika, Cārvāka, Jain, and Ajñana. It was also the age of influential thinkers like Mahāvīra, Pūraṇa Kassapa , Makkhali Gosāla, Ajita Kesakambalī, Pakudha Kaccāyana, and Sañjaya Belaṭṭhaputta, whose viewpoints Buddha most certainly must have been acquainted with and influenced by.[8][9][note 7] There is also evidence to suggest that the two masters, Alara Kalama and Udaka Ramaputta, were indeed historical figures and they most probably taught Buddha two different forms of meditative techniques.[10] While the most general outline of "birth, maturity, renunciation, search, awakening and liberation, teaching, death" must be true,[11] most scholars do not consistently accept all of the details contained in traditional biographies.[12][13]
The times of Gautama's birth and death are uncertain. Most historians in the early 20th century dated his lifetime as circa 563 BCE to 483 BCE.[1][14] More recently his death is dated later, between 411 and 400 BCE, while at a symposium on this question held in 1988, the majority of those who presented definite opinions gave dates within 20 years either side of 400 BCE for the Buddha's death.[1][15][note 5] These alternative chronologies, however, have not yet been accepted by all historians.[20][21][note 9]
The evidence of the early texts suggests that Siddhārtha Gautama was born into the Shakya clan, a community that was on the periphery, both geographically and culturally, of the northeastern Indian subcontinent in the 5th century BCE.[23] It was either a small republic, in which case his father was an elected chieftain, or an oligarchy, in which case his father was an oligarch.[23] According to the Buddhist tradition, Gautama was born in Lumbini, nowadays in modern-day Nepal, and raised in Kapilavastu, which may either be in present day Tilaurakot, Nepal or Piprahwa, India.[note 1] He obtained his enlightenment in Bodh Gaya, gave his first sermon in Sarnath, and died in Kushinagara.
No written records about Gautama have been found from his lifetime or some centuries thereafter. One edict of Emperor Ashoka, who reigned from circa 269 BCE to 232 BCE, commemorates the Emperor's pilgrimage to the Buddha's birthplace in Lumbini. Another one of his edict mentions several Dhamma texts, establishing the existence of a written Buddhist tradition at least by the time of the Mauryan era and which may be the precursors of the Pāli Canon.[34][note 11] The oldest surviving Buddhist manuscripts are the Gandhāran Buddhist texts, reported to have been found in or around Haḍḍa near Jalalabad in eastern Afghanistan and now preserved in the British Library. They are written in the Kharoṣṭhī script and the Gāndhārī language on twenty-seven birch bark scrolls, and they date from the first century BCE to the third century CE.[web 10]The sources for the life of Siddhārtha Gautama are a variety of different, and sometimes conflicting, traditional biographies. These include the Buddhacarita, Lalitavistara Sūtra, Mahāvastu, and the Nidānakathā.[35] Of these, the Buddhacarita[36][37][38] is the earliest full biography, an epic poem written by the poet Aśvaghoṣa, and dating around the beginning of the 2nd century CE.[35] The Lalitavistara Sūtra is the next oldest biography, a Mahāyāna/Sarvāstivāda biography dating to the 3rd century CE.[39] The Mahāvastu from the Mahāsāṃghika Lokottaravāda tradition is another major biography, composed incrementally until perhaps the 4th century CE.[39] The Dharmaguptaka biography of the Buddha is the most exhaustive, and is entitled the Abhiniṣkramaṇa Sūtra,[40] and various Chinese translations of this date between the 3rd and 6th century CE. Lastly, the Nidānakathā is from the Theravāda tradition in Sri Lanka and was composed in the 5th century CE by Buddhaghoṣa.[41]
From canonical sources, the Jātakas, the Mahapadana Sutta (DN 14), and the Achariyabhuta Sutta (MN 123) which include selective accounts that may be older, but are not full biographies. The Jātakas retell previous lives of Gautama as a bodhisattva, and the first collection of these can be dated among the earliest Buddhist texts.[42] The Mahāpadāna Sutta and Achariyabhuta Sutta both recount miraculous events surrounding Gautama's birth, such as the bodhisattva's descent from Tuṣita Heaven into his mother's womb.Traditional biographies of Gautama generally include numerous miracles, omens, and supernatural events. The character of the Buddha in these traditional biographies is often that of a fully transcendent (Skt. lokottara) and perfected being who is unencumbered by the mundane world. In the Mahāvastu, over the course of many lives, Gautama is said to have developed supramundane abilities including: a painless birth conceived without intercourse; no need for sleep, food, medicine, or bathing, although engaging in such "in conformity with the world"; omniscience, and the ability to "suppress karma".[43][44][45] Nevertheless, some of the more ordinary details of his life have been gathered from these traditional sources. In modern times there has been an attempt to form a secular understanding of Siddhārtha Gautama's life by omitting the traditional supernatural elements of his early biographies.
Andrew Skilton writes that the Buddha was never historically regarded by Buddhist traditions as being merely human:[46]
It is important to stress that, despite modern Theravada teachings to the contrary (often a sop to skeptical Western pupils), he was never seen as being merely human. For instance, he is often described as having the thirty-two major and eighty minor marks or signs of a mahāpuruṣa, "superman"; the Buddha himself denied that he was either a man or a god; and in the Mahāparinibbāna Sutta he states that he could live for an aeon were he asked to do so.
The ancient Indians were generally unconcerned with chronologies, being more focused on philosophy. Buddhist texts reflect this tendency, providing a clearer picture of what Gautama may have taught than of the dates of the events in his life. These texts contain descriptions of the culture and daily life of ancient India which can be corroborated from the Jain scriptures, and make the Buddha's time the earliest period in Indian history for which significant accounts exist.[47] British author Karen Armstrong writes that although there is very little information that can be considered historically sound, we can be reasonably confident that Siddhārtha Gautama did exist as a historical figure.[48] Michael Carrithers goes a bit further by stating that the most general outline of "birth, maturity, renunciation, search, awakening and liberation, teaching, death" must be true.[11]The Buddhist tradition regards Lumbini, present-day Nepal, to be the birthplace of the Buddha.[49][note 1] He grew up in Kapilavastu.[note 1] The exact site of ancient Kapilavastu is unknown. It may have been either Piprahwa, Uttar Pradesh, present-day India,[32] or Tilaurakot, present-day Nepal.[50] Both places belonged to the Sakya territory, and are located only 15 miles apart from each other.[50]
Siddharta Gautama was born as a Kshatriya,[51][note 13] the son of Śuddhodana, "an elected chief of the Shakya clan",[4] whose capital was Kapilavastu, and who were later annexed by the growing Kingdom of Kosala during the Buddha's lifetime. Gautama was the family name. His mother, Queen Maha Maya (Māyādevī) and Suddhodana's wife, was a Koliyan princess. Legend has it that, on the night Siddhartha was conceived, Queen Maya dreamt that a white elephant with six white tusks entered her right side,[53][54] and ten months later[55] Siddhartha was born. As was the Shakya tradition, when his mother Queen Maya became pregnant, she left Kapilvastu for her father's kingdom to give birth. However, her son is said to have been born on the way, at Lumbini, in a garden beneath a sal tree.
The day of the Buddha's birth is widely celebrated in Theravada countries as Vesak.[56] Buddha's birth anniversary holiday is called "Buddha Purnima" in Nepal and India as Buddha is believed to have been born on a full moon day. Various sources hold that the Buddha's mother died at his birth, a few days or seven days later. The infant was given the name Siddhartha (Pāli: Siddhattha), meaning "he who achieves his aim". During the birth celebrations, the hermit seer Asita journeyed from his mountain abode and announced that the child would either become a great king (chakravartin) or a great holy man.[57] By traditional account,[which?] this occurred after Siddhartha placed his feet in Asita's hair and Asita examined the birthmarks. Suddhodana held a naming ceremony on the fifth day, and invited eight Brahmin scholars to read the future. All gave a dual prediction that the baby would either become a great king or a great holy man.[57] Kaundinya (Pali: Kondañña), the youngest, and later to be the first arahant other than the Buddha, was reputed to be the only one who unequivocally predicted that Siddhartha would become a Buddha.[58]
While later tradition and legend characterized Śuddhodana as a hereditary monarch, the descendant of the Solar Dynasty of Ikṣvāku (Pāli: Okkāka), many scholars think that Śuddhodana was the elected chief of a tribal confederacy.
Early texts suggest that Gautama was not familiar with the dominant religious teachings of his time until he left on his religious quest, which is said to have been motivated by existential concern for the human condition.[59] The state of the Shakya clan was not a monarchy, and seems to have been structured either as an oligarchy, or as a form of republic.[60] The more egalitarian gana-sangha form of government, as a political alternative to the strongly hierarchical kingdoms, may have influenced the development of the Shramana-type Jain and Buddhist sanghas, where monarchies tended toward Vedic Brahmanism.[61]Siddhartha was brought up by his mother's younger sister, Maha Pajapati.[62] By tradition, he is said to have been destined by birth to the life of a prince, and had three palaces (for seasonal occupation) built for him. Although more recent scholarship doubts this status, his father, said to be King Śuddhodana, wishing for his son to be a great king, is said to have shielded him from religious teachings and from knowledge of human suffering.
When he reached the age of 16, his father reputedly arranged his marriage to a cousin of the same age named Yaśodharā (Pāli: Yasodharā). According to the traditional account,[which?] she gave birth to a son, named Rāhula. Siddhartha is said to have spent 29 years as a prince in Kapilavastu. Although his father ensured that Siddhartha was provided with everything he could want or need, Buddhist scriptures say that the future Buddha felt that material wealth was not life's ultimate goal.[62]According to the early Buddhist texts,[web 11] after realizing that meditative dhyana was the right path to awakening, but that extreme asceticism didn't work, Gautama discovered what Buddhists call the Middle Way[web 11]—a path of moderation away from the extremes of self-indulgence and self-mortification, or the Noble Eightfold Path, as was identified and described by the Buddha in his first discourse, the Dhammacakkappavattana Sutta.[web 11] In a famous incident, after becoming starved and weakened, he is said to have accepted milk and rice pudding from a village girl named Sujata.[web 12] Such was his emaciated appearance that she wrongly believed him to be a spirit that had granted her a wish.[web 12]
Following this incident, Gautama was famously seated under a pipal tree—now known as the Bodhi tree—in Bodh Gaya, India, when he vowed never to arise until he had found the truth.[70] Kaundinya and four other companions, believing that he had abandoned his search and become undisciplined, left. After a reputed 49 days of meditation, at the age of 35, he is said to have attained Enlightenment.[70][web 13] According to some traditions, this occurred in approximately the fifth lunar month, while, according to others, it was in the twelfth month. From that time, Gautama was known to his followers as the Buddha or "Awakened One" ("Buddha" is also sometimes translated as "The Enlightened One").
According to Buddhism, at the time of his awakening he realized complete insight into the cause of suffering, and the steps necessary to eliminate it. These discoveries became known as the "Four Noble Truths",[web 13] which are at the heart of Buddhist teaching. Through mastery of these truths, a state of supreme liberation, or Nirvana, is believed to be possible for any being. The Buddha described Nirvāna as the perfect peace of a mind that's free from ignorance, greed, hatred and other afflictive states,[web 13] or "defilements" (kilesas). Nirvana is also regarded as the "end of the world", in that no personal identity or boundaries of the mind remain. In such a state, a being is said to possess the Ten Characteristics, belonging to every Buddha.
According to a story in the Āyācana Sutta (Samyutta Nikaya VI.1) — a scripture found in the Pāli and other canons — immediately after his awakening, the Buddha debated whether or not he should teach the Dharma to others. He was concerned that humans were so overpowered by ignorance, greed and hatred that they could never recognise the path, which is subtle, deep and hard to grasp. However, in the story, Brahmā Sahampati convinced him, arguing that at least some will understand it. The Buddha relented, and agreed to teach.After his awakening, the Buddha met Taphussa and Bhallika — two merchant brothers from the city of Balkh in what is currently Afghanistan — who became his first lay disciples. It is said that each was given hairs from his head, which are now claimed to be enshrined as relics in the Shwe Dagon Temple in Rangoon, Burma. The Buddha intended to visit Asita, and his former teachers, Alara Kalama and Udaka Ramaputta, to explain his findings, but they had already died.
He then travelled to the Deer Park near Varanasi (Benares) in northern India, where he set in motion what Buddhists call the Wheel of Dharma by delivering his first sermon to the five companions with whom he had sought enlightenment. Together with him, they formed the first saṅgha: the company of Buddhist monks.
All five become arahants, and within the first two months, with the conversion of Yasa and fifty four of his friends, the number of such arahants is said to have grown to 60. The conversion of three brothers named Kassapa followed, with their reputed 200, 300 and 500 disciples, respectively. This swelled the sangha to more than 1,000.For the remaining 45 years of his life, the Buddha is said to have traveled in the Gangetic Plain, in what is now Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and southern Nepal, teaching a diverse range of people: from nobles to servants, murderers such as Angulimala, and cannibals such as Alavaka. Although the Buddha's language remains unknown, it's likely that he taught in one or more of a variety of closely related Middle Indo-Aryan dialects, of which Pali may be a standardization.
The sangha traveled through the subcontinent, expounding the dharma. This continued throughout the year, except during the four months of the Vāsanā rainy season when ascetics of all religions rarely traveled. One reason was that it was more difficult to do so without causing harm to animal life. At this time of year, the sangha would retreat to monasteries, public parks or forests, where people would come to them.The first vassana was spent at Varanasi when the sangha was formed. After this, the Buddha kept a promise to travel to Rajagaha, capital of Magadha, to visit King Bimbisara. During this visit, Sariputta and Maudgalyayana were converted by Assaji, one of the first five disciples, after which they were to become the Buddha's two foremost followers. The Buddha spent the next three seasons at Veluvana Bamboo Grove monastery in Rajagaha, capital of Magadha.
Upon hearing of his son's awakening, Suddhodana sent, over a period, ten delegations to ask him to return to Kapilavastu. On the first nine occasions, the delegates failed to deliver the message, and instead joined the sangha to become arahants. The tenth delegation, led by Kaludayi, a childhood friend of Gautama's (who also became an arahant), however, delivered the message.
Now two years after his awakening, the Buddha agreed to return, and made a two-month journey by foot to Kapilavastu, teaching the dharma as he went. At his return, the royal palace prepared a midday meal, but the sangha was making an alms round in Kapilavastu. Hearing this, Suddhodana approached his son, the Buddha, saying:
"Ours is the warrior lineage of Mahamassata, and not a single warrior has gone seeking alms."
The Buddha is said to have replied:
"That is not the custom of your royal lineage. But it is the custom of my Buddha lineage. Several thousands of Buddhas have gone by seeking alms."
Buddhist texts say that Suddhodana invited the sangha into the palace for the meal, followed by a dharma talk. After this he is said to have become a sotapanna. During the visit, many members of the royal family joined the sangha. The Buddha's cousins Ananda and Anuruddha became two of his five chief disciples. At the age of seven, his son Rahula also joined, and became one of his ten chief disciples. His half-brother Nanda also joined and became an arahant.
Of the Buddha's disciples, Sariputta, Maudgalyayana, Mahakasyapa, Ananda and Anuruddha are believed to have been the five closest to him. His ten foremost disciples were reputedly completed by the quintet of Upali, Subhoti, Rahula, Mahakaccana and Punna.
In the fifth vassana, the Buddha was staying at Mahavana near Vesali when he heard news of the impending death of his father. He is said to have gone to Suddhodana and taught the dharma, after which his father became an arahant.
The king's death and cremation was to inspire the creation of an order of nuns. Buddhist texts record that the Buddha was reluctant to ordain women. His foster mother Maha Pajapati, for example, approached him, asking to join the sangha, but he refused. Maha Pajapati, however, was so intent on the path of awakening that she led a group of royal Sakyan and Koliyan ladies, which followed the sangha on a long journey to Rajagaha. In time, after Ananda championed their cause, the Buddha is said to have reconsidered and, five years after the formation of the sangha, agreed to the ordination of women as nuns. He reasoned that males and females had an equal capacity for awakening. But he gave women additional rules (Vinaya) to follow.Dhyana and insight[edit]
A core problem in the study of early Buddhism is the relation between dhyana and insight.[82][95][84] Schmithausen, in his often-cited article On some Aspects of Descriptions or Theories of 'Liberating Insight' and 'Enlightenment' in Early Buddhism notes that the mention of the four noble truths as constituting "liberating insight", which is attained after mastering the Rupa Jhanas, is a later addition to texts such as Majjhima Nikaya 36.[85][81][82]
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1-858-366-4777 Skype ,1-800-270-2928
AMERICA REBORN WORLD DEMOCRACY
VIKEN Z KOKOZIAN ,INFO-AWARENESS
Future Predictions And Coming Trends using Descriptive/Structural Metadata Algorithm Frequency Resonation patterns in Global
News and Current Events From Around The World.
VIKEN Z KOKOZIAN , GLOBAL NEWS ,ILLUMINATE THE HUMAN MIND
"OPEN YOUR THIRD EYE" ,EDUCATE THE HUMAN PSYCHE
TO BETTER YOURSELF AND HUMANITY.
GOVERNMENT-MORTGAGE-RELIEF, INFO-AWARENESS ,
AMERICA REBORN WORLD DEMOCRACY, FIGHT-THE-BANK-FORECLOSURE DEFENSE,
"WARNING WE ARE NOT THE GOVERNMENT WE ARE THE PEOPLE PROTECT YOUR INVESTMENT",
REAL ESTATE LITIGATION FORECLOSURE DEFENSE NATIONWIDE
Principal reduction is clearly a critical strategy for saving homes and stabilizing the economy
Rates starting at 2.99% 30 Year Fixed ,
NO-DEFICIENCY JUDGMENT AGAINST YOU,RESTORE YOUR CREDIT AND START OVER .
sites.google.com/site/fightthebankforeclosuredefence/home ,
government-mortgage-relief.com , www.youtube.com/88888force
americaworlddemocracy.blogspot.com/,http://america-world-...
federal-government-foreclosure-relief.blogspot.com/ ,
government-mortgage-relief.blogspot.com , info-awareness.blogspot.com
vikenzkokozian.blogspot.com/ ,http://88888force.blogspot.com/
fightthebank.blogspot.com/ ,http://fight-the-bank.blogspot.com/
truth-perception.blogspot.com/ ,http://twitter.com/INFOAWARENESS
www.government-mortgage-relief.com/ , www.youtube.com/88888force,
vikenzkokozian.wordpress.com/,http://info-awareness.blogs...,
www.facebook.com/infoawareness.vikenzkokozian, www.nationalshortsalebrokers.com/gmr_eligibilityaccess.php,
www.hr1theamericanrecoveryandreinvestmentactof2009.com/,h...,
www.federalgovernmentforeclosurerelief.com/,http://www.hr...
m/, www.stopforeclosurefightthebank.com/ ,http://www.unitedstatesforeclosurelaws.com/,
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www.hr3221housingandeconomicrecoveryactof2008.com/ ,http://www.fha-loan-limits-by-state-and-county.com/,
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Letter found inside a sealed envelope dated March 15, 1985, found by Peter inside some music that had been donated to the library.
Reads: I choose for myself that my own career will be a physician because I like saving lives and freeing poor people of pain. Also everyone of my family's friends were saying that my fingers are long like a doctor's. My grandmother's desire is that I become a doctor, so I decided to become one, and never change that beautiful career.
Signed,
Dana-Luiza Dragunoiu
Thank you volunteers you did it AGAIN on 5/10/14! Despite an absolutely dismal weather prediction 85 volunteers showed up to remove a huge amount of trash from Bear Creek and Charlesmont Park! Together we filled a 40 yard dumpster to capacity including 12 shopping carts, 6 couches, 4 bicycles, 6 tires, 2 vacuum cleaners, 2 mattresses, 2 wooden chairs, one wing-back chair one box spring, one entertainment system, and electric Barbie Guitar and much more! Thank you volunteers you rock! We will try to post more photos shortly but if you took any photos at our cleanup today please send them to us – Thank you!
We would like to send a special “Thank You!” out to all the dedicated volunteers from the U.S. Navy, Bear Creek Recreation Council, and Towson University!
We would also like to Thank Papa John’s of Dundalk for Donating Pizza and Bill Bateman’s Perry Hall for donating wings! Thank you Walmart, Mars and Giant for donating Gift Cards that helped us pay for many of our supplies! Also thank you to the Alliance for the Chesapeake Bay and American Rivers for supplies as well!
We also wish to thank historian and author of “Terror on the Chesapeake” Christopher George and the very talented artist Tom Spicer for coming out to the event. Mr. George explained the historical significance of Bear Creek and Charlesmont Park during the Battle of North point, War of 1812 and Mr. Spicer’s incredible paintings helps us all the visualize incredible scenes from this important historical event.
Thanks as well to Hannah Grice for acting as our photographer and taking most of these wonderful photos of the event!
Today's free NBA pick is from handicapping expert Vernon Croy at www.docsports.com/cappers.html?cap_id=27. Your free NBA winner for Friday, January 27, 2017 is between the Brooklyn Nets vs Cleveland Cavaliers. Visit www.docsports.com/free-picks/nba/ to get more free NBA predictions each day as well as $60 free of Croy's premium member only predictions. Croy is on a huge 216-183 free pick video run! Subscribe to Vernon Croy’s YouTube Channel today for daily free sports picks. www.youtube.com/user/onlythebestone?sub_confirmation=1
Horoscope PredictionGet Free Horoscope and horoscope predictions from world renowned Astrologer Dr. Dharam Singh Jain (Hony. DLitt.)
Credit: Dr Heather Whalley, Dorothy Hodgkin Fellow from the University of Edinburgh.
Research conducted through a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin fellowship has found that some people with a family history of mood disorder have increased activity in the bilateral insula cortex (pictured), a part of the brain known to be involved emotional processing and mood regulation, even before they become unwell. In the study a group of at-risk individuals – healthy people with a family history – and a group with no such risk were examined using fMRI and a task involving executive and language processing. The health of both groups was assessed two years later and approximately a fifth of the at-risk group had developed major depression. The original scans of those with depression indicated that the at-risk group had abnormal levels of activity in the bilateral insula, even before they were diagnosed. This shows that dysfunction of the insula in at-risk people may be important in the understanding of mechanisms leading to depression.
The study is published online in PLOS ONE
Now get free daily online free horoscope future, past and present Astrology Predictions by effective techniques of astrology predictions with help of the best astrologer Pt. Subhash Shastri In India..
Here's some great predictions:
1999 - The Male Birth Control Pill
2001 - Global wireless phone number
2002 - AIDS Vaccine
2003 - 1/5 of US workers telecommute
2003 - Universal video phones
2008 - Hemp based auto fuel
2009 - VR sunglasses
2009 - Orgasmotron
2010 - Viable smart drugs
2010 - Robot surgeon in a pill
Shockingly they did get some things right, but just the dates/methods of execution way wrong:
1997 - Affordable home cd recorders
1997 - Movies on Demand
1998 - Flat rate phone service
2005 - Computer defeats chess grandmaster
2010 - Death of audio cd as primary music format
2013 - the book goes digital
So I worked on my stock analysis program over the weekend, and I kind of took two steps back in order to take one step forward. But now I've got a much more flexible base for testing ideas.
As a test of my program, I created an indicator. The indicator returns a value from 0 to 99, indicating where the stock is in terms of the window created by the 52 week high and the 52 week low. If the stock is setting new highs, it would read 99. If the stock was hitting new lows, it would read 0. Halfway in between the two would read 50.
Now I wrote an analysis class that goes through all the historical data for a list of stocks (in my case, I just used the S&P 500 list), finds the indicator reading, then notes where the stock is in 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and a year. Now without any guesswork from me, it knows how a stock setting a new low would perform compared to a stock setting a new high. And it can also compare those to any other value the indicator would give.
The answer to the setting new lows vs setting new highs comparison is not intuitive. I would assume that a stock setting new highs is doing great, they're making money, everything they touch turns to gold... Stocks that are setting new lows are coming apart at the seams. But the stock setting new lows will perform much better on average in any of the four time frames I chose.
I suppose it does make an inverted sort of sense -- The market takes into account not only what you're doing now, but what you're expected to do in the next year or years. Having everything you touch turn to gold is a tough thing to keep doing. The first sign of a falter and the stock drops. But a company that's doing lousy in every way? Well, all they have to do is look like MAYBE they'll turn things around and their stock will soar!
Another interpretation is another market truism. The market hates uncertainty. You pay a premium for a stock perceived as 'safe'. People REALLY don't want to lose their ass when they're invested, so a company with low downside is priced to reflect it. So for a stock that's in trouble, the inverse is probably true. Those safety-loving investors are jumping ship and they're willing to sell at a discount.
Now there are some problems with my example... I used S&P 500 stocks. S&P 500 stocks are all wildly successful compared to the market at large, and we already know that they're CURRENTLY wildly successful. So if IBM set a new low in 1967, we know it recovered because it's kicking ass today. My little model doesn't take into account all those stocks that set new lows and went on to go out of business, or get bought out, etc. because they aren't in the S&P 500 today. Basically, IBM setting a new low today doesn't mean the same thing as IBM setting a new low in 1967.
So I wrote a forward tester . What it did is to use all the data for stocks up to 2005 as a base to make predictions, then made predictions for all the stocks from 2005 to May 4, 2006. The graph above is the results. The X axis is the prediction made, and the Y axis is the average actual result for that prediction. The diaganol line is where the predictions exactly match the average return.
The red dots on the bottom left are my 1 month predictions. As you can see, while they don't perfectly follow the line, they do seem to follow the model pretty well. The yellow dots are my 3 month predictions. They also seem to predict reasonably accurately. The green dots are my 6 months predictions, and they also seem to do quite well. I was really quite surprised with the results thus far. I really expected the stocks at new lows to not behave as the model suggested.
But then all hell breaks loose. The blue dots are my predictions for 1 year. As you can see, they're all over the place, and they actually seem to be the inverse of what my analyzer predicted!
I suppose there's a million ways to analyze this, but this is what I'm guessing it means:
The stock market overreacts to recent news. This is one of those truisms of contrarian investors, and it seems there may be some truth to it. If a stock is setting new highs, the recent news on that stock is almost certainly good. If a stock is setting new lows, then the recent news is almost certainly bad. In the middle, it's a crapshoot. So if the recent news is bad and the stock is setting new lows, it's probably undervalued. The stock will correct upwards over the next several months.. If the recent news is good, pushing stocks to new highs, then as the stock may be overvalued -- as soon as the good news stops, the stock will correct downward.
That explains my 1 month, 3 month, and 6 month predictions, but what's causing the craziness on the 1 year predictions? I'm guessing it has to do with the way my experiment was set up. I took 500 giants of the stock market (Actually I think I only have 497 of them or something like that), then I look backwards to when they were small companies. We already KNOW that they've bounced back from every low they've set. Also, a small company is more likely to plummet on bad news than, say, General Electric. Many people invested in GE are in it for the long haul and they ignore recent news entirely. That would make it more likely that a stock that is already a market giant and is setting new lows since 2005 is actually in real trouble. Perhaps the market IS overreacting to bad news, but that doesn't mean the company is in good shape.
Or maybe I'm just crazy. Now I need to program some other measurements, like standard deviations and whatnot.
The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Hydrometeorology Testbed - Hydro (hereafter denoted as HMT-Hydro) experiment is a part of the United States Weather Research Program (USWRP) through the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) that runs from 24 June to 19 July 2019. During the HMT-Hydro experiment, forecasters and hydrologists from the National Weather Service (NWS) will work with National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) research scientists to explore new technology and techniques to improve the prediction and warning of flash flooding. In particular, NWS participants will evaluate new probabilistic hydrologic modeling concepts and output within the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) system that could help convey the uncertainty of the flash flood threat. NWS participants will also evaluate high resolution precipitation forecasts from the NSSL Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project and the addition of these forecasts into the FLASH system. Feedback from participants will allow NSSL research scientists to identify how these high spatio-temporal resolution precipitation forecasts could influence the warning decision making process, including the potential for increased warning lead time. Evaluations of the various probabilistic data sets will provide further understanding on the usability and effectiveness of these products, as well as guide future efforts of the Forecasting A Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) project for flooding hazards. The HMT-Hydro experiment runs in conjunction with the Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) experiment at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to collaborate on the short-term forecasting of flash flooding for both a national and regional scale.
Every year on New Year's Eve, we write down 10 things we think might happen during the next year. We put our lists in an envelope and seal them up. On New Year's Eve the next year, we open the envelope and read our predictions to see how right (or wrong) we were. It's a lot of fun and it's something to look forward to all year. :)
Sometimes, I am amazed at my own uncanny ability to predict what Volks might do next..... here is a conversation between myself and another dollfie dream collector regarding the over-inflated value of DD Sasara.
WEATHER FORECASTING: It's an art! It's a science! It's impossible! Whatever your position, it's tough not to enjoy trying to forecast winter weather on the basis of the size and ratio of the 13 segments of Woolly Bear's stripes. What do you think - a nice warm winter? or a cold tough winter?
If an abacus is too extreme for your security requirements, then it is possible the cloud might work for you after all. 2011 will surely be the year when every CTO looks to the cloud for their next generation product design. I expect that software developers will start to talk cloud in their architecture pattern lingo (I attempted a quick start in the CloudCamp LinkedIn group) and some higher-level frameworks will appear to address this new world of dynamic and distributed computing.
AMERICA REBORN WORLD DEMOCRACY
VIKEN Z KOKOZIAN ,INFO-AWARENESS
Future Predictions And Coming Trends using Descriptive/Structural Metadata Algorithm Frequency Resonation patterns in Global
News and Current Events From Around The World.
VIKEN Z KOKOZIAN , GLOBAL NEWS ,ILLUMINATE THE HUMAN MIND
"OPEN YOUR THIRD EYE" ,EDUCATE THE HUMAN PSYCHE
TO BETTER YOURSELF AND HUMANITY.
GOVERNMENT-MORTGAGE-RELIEF, INFO-AWARENESS ,
AMERICA REBORN WORLD DEMOCRACY, FIGHT-THE-BANK-FORECLOSURE DEFENSE,
"WARNING WE ARE NOT THE GOVERNMENT WE ARE THE PEOPLE PROTECT YOUR INVESTMENT",
REAL ESTATE LITIGATION FORECLOSURE DEFENSE NATIONWIDE
Principal reduction is clearly a critical strategy for saving homes and stabilizing the economy
Rates starting at 2.99% 30 Year Fixed ,
NO-DEFICIENCY JUDGMENT AGAINST YOU,RESTORE YOUR CREDIT AND START OVER .
sites.google.com/site/fightthebankforeclosuredefence/home ,
government-mortgage-relief.com , www.youtube.com/88888force
americaworlddemocracy.blogspot.com/,http://america-world-...
federal-government-foreclosure-relief.blogspot.com/ ,
government-mortgage-relief.blogspot.com , info-awareness.blogspot.com
vikenzkokozian.blogspot.com/ ,http://88888force.blogspot.com/
fightthebank.blogspot.com/ ,http://fight-the-bank.blogspot.com/
truth-perception.blogspot.com/ ,http://twitter.com/INFOAWARENESS
www.government-mortgage-relief.com/ , www.youtube.com/88888force,
vikenzkokozian.wordpress.com/,http://info-awareness.blogs...,
www.facebook.com/infoawareness.vikenzkokozian, www.nationalshortsalebrokers.com/gmr_eligibilityaccess.php,
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m/, www.stopforeclosurefightthebank.com/ ,http://www.unitedstatesforeclosurelaws.com/,
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www.hr3221housingandeconomicrecoveryactof2008.com/ ,http://www.fha-loan-limits-by-state-and-county.com/,
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Van Ness BRT
🚌 I may have been hasty, perhaps even unfair, by noting that a new Van Ness BRT bus stop had graffiti instead of realtime predictions. Just a little ways north I saw this BRT bus stop with a snazzy new LCD realtime display, to tell us that predictions may be unavailable.
Bruce Chin, Duncan Stewart and Richard Lee prepare for the launch of TMT Predictions 2011 at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre in Toronto.
www.tmtpredictions.ca for more
141' Prediction, built Hakvoort Shipyard, The Netherlands, 1991; at Greenport, NY, Saturday, August 22, 2009.
Sometimes photography is extreme sports. We we walking out for about hour to get this photo. It was -25 degrees C and walking froze our faces. It was easier to stand still than walk. Our speed was less than the usual photography pace. Only two kilometers in one hour. Otherwise the light and air was amazing.
Olympus E-5 worked flawlessly in -25dC and ZD 50-200 was joy to use. Great combination!
Latest catch
Hello reader's
On Monday night I set the trap up again expecting to see something new for the year, maybe just maybe...
The prediction was right and I was blessed with year firsts of both Frosted Orange and Acleris rhombana.
The catch was slightly better than I expected possibly due to a cloudy and slightly warmer (and a bit wet) night, but the increase was mainly the usual shades of dark brown this time of year.
Another hint of migration with another Udea ferrugalis, Silver-Y and Turnip Moth.
Catch Report - 14/09/15 - Back Garden - Stevenage - 1x 125w MV Robinson Trap
Macro Moths
1x Frosted Orange [NFY]
1x Silver-Y
1x Common Marbled Carpet
1x Garden Carpet
1x Lesser Broad-bordered Yellow Underwing
1x Turnip Moth
1x Broad-bordered Yellow Underwing
4x Square-spot Rustic
10x Lesser Yellow Underwing
5x Setaceous Hebrew Character
6x Vine's Rustic
1x Copper Underwing
1x Common Wainscot
17x Large Yellow Underwing
1x Brimstone Moth
2x Light Emerald
1x Snout
Micro Moths
1x Acleris rhombana [NFY]
1x Epiphyas postvittana
1x Udea ferrugalis
1x Blastobasis lacticolella