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Credit: Dr Heather Whalley, Dorothy Hodgkin Fellow from the University of Edinburgh.
Research conducted through a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin fellowship has found that some people with a family history of mood disorder have increased activity in the bilateral insula cortex (pictured), a part of the brain known to be involved emotional processing and mood regulation, even before they become unwell. In the study a group of at-risk individuals – healthy people with a family history – and a group with no such risk were examined using fMRI and a task involving executive and language processing. The health of both groups was assessed two years later and approximately a fifth of the at-risk group had developed major depression. The original scans of those with depression indicated that the at-risk group had abnormal levels of activity in the bilateral insula, even before they were diagnosed. This shows that dysfunction of the insula in at-risk people may be important in the understanding of mechanisms leading to depression.
The study is published online in PLOS ONE
Now get free daily online free horoscope future, past and present Astrology Predictions by effective techniques of astrology predictions with help of the best astrologer Pt. Subhash Shastri In India..
Here's some great predictions:
1999 - The Male Birth Control Pill
2001 - Global wireless phone number
2002 - AIDS Vaccine
2003 - 1/5 of US workers telecommute
2003 - Universal video phones
2008 - Hemp based auto fuel
2009 - VR sunglasses
2009 - Orgasmotron
2010 - Viable smart drugs
2010 - Robot surgeon in a pill
Shockingly they did get some things right, but just the dates/methods of execution way wrong:
1997 - Affordable home cd recorders
1997 - Movies on Demand
1998 - Flat rate phone service
2005 - Computer defeats chess grandmaster
2010 - Death of audio cd as primary music format
2013 - the book goes digital
So I worked on my stock analysis program over the weekend, and I kind of took two steps back in order to take one step forward. But now I've got a much more flexible base for testing ideas.
As a test of my program, I created an indicator. The indicator returns a value from 0 to 99, indicating where the stock is in terms of the window created by the 52 week high and the 52 week low. If the stock is setting new highs, it would read 99. If the stock was hitting new lows, it would read 0. Halfway in between the two would read 50.
Now I wrote an analysis class that goes through all the historical data for a list of stocks (in my case, I just used the S&P 500 list), finds the indicator reading, then notes where the stock is in 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and a year. Now without any guesswork from me, it knows how a stock setting a new low would perform compared to a stock setting a new high. And it can also compare those to any other value the indicator would give.
The answer to the setting new lows vs setting new highs comparison is not intuitive. I would assume that a stock setting new highs is doing great, they're making money, everything they touch turns to gold... Stocks that are setting new lows are coming apart at the seams. But the stock setting new lows will perform much better on average in any of the four time frames I chose.
I suppose it does make an inverted sort of sense -- The market takes into account not only what you're doing now, but what you're expected to do in the next year or years. Having everything you touch turn to gold is a tough thing to keep doing. The first sign of a falter and the stock drops. But a company that's doing lousy in every way? Well, all they have to do is look like MAYBE they'll turn things around and their stock will soar!
Another interpretation is another market truism. The market hates uncertainty. You pay a premium for a stock perceived as 'safe'. People REALLY don't want to lose their ass when they're invested, so a company with low downside is priced to reflect it. So for a stock that's in trouble, the inverse is probably true. Those safety-loving investors are jumping ship and they're willing to sell at a discount.
Now there are some problems with my example... I used S&P 500 stocks. S&P 500 stocks are all wildly successful compared to the market at large, and we already know that they're CURRENTLY wildly successful. So if IBM set a new low in 1967, we know it recovered because it's kicking ass today. My little model doesn't take into account all those stocks that set new lows and went on to go out of business, or get bought out, etc. because they aren't in the S&P 500 today. Basically, IBM setting a new low today doesn't mean the same thing as IBM setting a new low in 1967.
So I wrote a forward tester . What it did is to use all the data for stocks up to 2005 as a base to make predictions, then made predictions for all the stocks from 2005 to May 4, 2006. The graph above is the results. The X axis is the prediction made, and the Y axis is the average actual result for that prediction. The diaganol line is where the predictions exactly match the average return.
The red dots on the bottom left are my 1 month predictions. As you can see, while they don't perfectly follow the line, they do seem to follow the model pretty well. The yellow dots are my 3 month predictions. They also seem to predict reasonably accurately. The green dots are my 6 months predictions, and they also seem to do quite well. I was really quite surprised with the results thus far. I really expected the stocks at new lows to not behave as the model suggested.
But then all hell breaks loose. The blue dots are my predictions for 1 year. As you can see, they're all over the place, and they actually seem to be the inverse of what my analyzer predicted!
I suppose there's a million ways to analyze this, but this is what I'm guessing it means:
The stock market overreacts to recent news. This is one of those truisms of contrarian investors, and it seems there may be some truth to it. If a stock is setting new highs, the recent news on that stock is almost certainly good. If a stock is setting new lows, then the recent news is almost certainly bad. In the middle, it's a crapshoot. So if the recent news is bad and the stock is setting new lows, it's probably undervalued. The stock will correct upwards over the next several months.. If the recent news is good, pushing stocks to new highs, then as the stock may be overvalued -- as soon as the good news stops, the stock will correct downward.
That explains my 1 month, 3 month, and 6 month predictions, but what's causing the craziness on the 1 year predictions? I'm guessing it has to do with the way my experiment was set up. I took 500 giants of the stock market (Actually I think I only have 497 of them or something like that), then I look backwards to when they were small companies. We already KNOW that they've bounced back from every low they've set. Also, a small company is more likely to plummet on bad news than, say, General Electric. Many people invested in GE are in it for the long haul and they ignore recent news entirely. That would make it more likely that a stock that is already a market giant and is setting new lows since 2005 is actually in real trouble. Perhaps the market IS overreacting to bad news, but that doesn't mean the company is in good shape.
Or maybe I'm just crazy. Now I need to program some other measurements, like standard deviations and whatnot.
Every year on New Year's Eve, we write down 10 things we think might happen during the next year. We put our lists in an envelope and seal them up. On New Year's Eve the next year, we open the envelope and read our predictions to see how right (or wrong) we were. It's a lot of fun and it's something to look forward to all year. :)
Mixed Media Collage on L'Anaquarelle
12 x 9
Vintage automotive poster, silverware catalog, Emigre type catalog, medical illustrations, sheet music cover, hardware box, page from "Tone Topics Issue" (vintage instrument catalog), 50's Maine tourist brochure, vintage sports calendar, medical book, theatre programme
Sometimes, I am amazed at my own uncanny ability to predict what Volks might do next..... here is a conversation between myself and another dollfie dream collector regarding the over-inflated value of DD Sasara.
WEATHER FORECASTING: It's an art! It's a science! It's impossible! Whatever your position, it's tough not to enjoy trying to forecast winter weather on the basis of the size and ratio of the 13 segments of Woolly Bear's stripes. What do you think - a nice warm winter? or a cold tough winter?
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Video of an experimental smoke dispersal model of smoke from fires in Northern California on 23 August 2021.
Van Ness BRT
🚌 I may have been hasty, perhaps even unfair, by noting that a new Van Ness BRT bus stop had graffiti instead of realtime predictions. Just a little ways north I saw this BRT bus stop with a snazzy new LCD realtime display, to tell us that predictions may be unavailable.
Bruce Chin, Duncan Stewart and Richard Lee prepare for the launch of TMT Predictions 2011 at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre in Toronto.
www.tmtpredictions.ca for more
141' Prediction, built Hakvoort Shipyard, The Netherlands, 1991; at Greenport, NY, Saturday, August 22, 2009.
Sometimes photography is extreme sports. We we walking out for about hour to get this photo. It was -25 degrees C and walking froze our faces. It was easier to stand still than walk. Our speed was less than the usual photography pace. Only two kilometers in one hour. Otherwise the light and air was amazing.
Olympus E-5 worked flawlessly in -25dC and ZD 50-200 was joy to use. Great combination!
Predictions were for 3-5 inches last night, which none of believed, given that they predicted rain for yesterday morning, which turned out to be 4 inches of snow, with rain later in the afternoon. Snow fell heavily during the night. When we saw a bus stuck in front of the hospital, we knew it wasn't good out there. Final tally? 16+ inches, and a somewhat scary, but beautiful, drive home this morning. Thank god for 4-wheel drive trucks!
Old Trenton Road at the intersection of Village Road.
Eleven fantastic visitors joined four of us at Yahoo! Research to discuss prediction markets (mostly algorithms) for three straight days (!) immediately following AMMA 2011. We had a great time and learned a lot.
This photo was taken on the last day, so some people are missing.
CRICKET MATCH EXPERT SUPERSATR CBTFSHAAN OPINION DAILY – ROUGH SKETCH : FANTASY CAPTAINS.
CSK had lost their past fight against SRH in IPL 2020 by 7 runs The MS Dhoni-drove side is confronting attempt to beat the clock to make it to IPL 2020 playoffsSunrisers Hyderabad come into the apparatus after a restricted destruction against Rajasthan Royals
Ethereum price prediction at this moment is at best a mixed bag. It is obvious that the
bears are dominating the market at the present but some analysts dare to call a positive
turnaround soon.
To know more about the prediction visit smartereum. It is the best place to get accurate
news on Ethereum price information. Please vist us at:
Astronomers are 99% sure that the moonlet will indeed be ejected from the system over the next two months, taking into account the large trajectory changes that have in the past thrown off their propagation models. This time they think they have accounted for close Mun passes and although the exact timing of encounters may be off by several seconds or minutes the end result should be the same
Memorial Day, 2009
My niece will be of driving age in a year and a half.
Whatever your sacred holy entity of choice may be... please get a head start and begin praying for us all... not that it would do any good, but what the hell...
(To thou who hast challenged me to take more photos... I know this does not count... I simply never got to uploading it when I first took it...)
Fade to Black...
footiecentral.com/prediction-most-goals-to-be-scored-in-e...
#Argentina, #Brazil, #CR7, #CristianoRonaldo, #Messi, #Neymar, #Portugal, #WorldCup
(Image via twitter.com/8Fact_Footballl)
The biggest sporting event in the world is just two days away now as the World Cup kicks off on June 14th, when hosts Russia will take on Saudi Arabia at the Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow.
With some of the world’s biggest stars taking part in the c...
Ceiran’s teacher asked him to write a prediction about his book, “A Great Day For Snorkeling.” I’m currently brimming with pride.
The Electrical Experimenter, April 1921
archive.org/details/electricalexperi81920gern/page/1302/m...
The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Hydrometeorology Testbed - Hydro (hereafter denoted as HMT-Hydro) experiment is a part of the United States Weather Research Program (USWRP) through the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) that runs from 24 June to 19 July 2019. During the HMT-Hydro experiment, forecasters and hydrologists from the National Weather Service (NWS) will work with National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) research scientists to explore new technology and techniques to improve the prediction and warning of flash flooding. In particular, NWS participants will evaluate new probabilistic hydrologic modeling concepts and output within the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) system that could help convey the uncertainty of the flash flood threat. NWS participants will also evaluate high resolution precipitation forecasts from the NSSL Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project and the addition of these forecasts into the FLASH system. Feedback from participants will allow NSSL research scientists to identify how these high spatio-temporal resolution precipitation forecasts could influence the warning decision making process, including the potential for increased warning lead time. Evaluations of the various probabilistic data sets will provide further understanding on the usability and effectiveness of these products, as well as guide future efforts of the Forecasting A Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) project for flooding hazards. The HMT-Hydro experiment runs in conjunction with the Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) experiment at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to collaborate on the short-term forecasting of flash flooding for both a national and regional scale.