View allAll Photos Tagged Forecasting
Click on image to view on black in the light box.
When I posted the photo of the '31 Packard Roadster earlier today (previous photo), I said this would not be a good day for driving it with the top down. This is part of our back yard, late this afternoon (about 6:25 EDT). Earlier in the week, Richmond weather forecasts called for as much as 3" of snow tonight, but that was revised down to "up to 1 inch" as of yesterday, and this morning, the forecast no longer included snow for today or tonight, but did say we could have "snow showers" Monday morning -- no mention of accumulation. We've had some snow flurries off and on much of the day, sometimes mixed with rain and sometimes just rain, but it started to snow in earnest a little while ago. When I took this, we had about 2 inches of snow, and it was still coming down. (I took a shot at 1/10-second to try to show the falling snow better, but I didn't hold still enough to get as sharp a picture as I wanted; this was shot at 1/25-second. I tried making the snow whiter, but it didn't look natural -- after all, it was snowing pretty hard at the time, and it was nearly 6:30; viewing in the light box helps, though.) The forecast now gives us a 90% chance of snow. Think that might be overly cautious?
This painting is from 19th century England, but it could also be tonight's Santa Fe weather forecast. Stay safe and warm, everyone! #oracle #winter #snow #seasons #blizzard #art #artist #painter #painting #instaart #instaarthub #artgram #artgallery
Never trust the weather forecast! Dull clouds and flat color, but with the aid of Singh Ray and Lee, a decent sunset was made after all.
The best part of the day was hanging out with my buddy Pete, and trying to get my behind into his shots...lol. But seriously, it was nice to hang with and to shoot with Pete again. It has been a minute since the last time that we were able to hang.
So far, it has been a good week. Not photographically, though. Not much to write home about. But the company has been great. Pete on Wednesday and Reggie on Sunday. Can't complain at all. Thanks guys!
Oh, and a special shout out to my man, Reggie. Happy Birthday, buddy!
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I was surprised to see that snow was forecast for Oberon next week, that see if it happens, it could change I hope not.
I went down to visit the snowy owl that has been spending the winter Southeast of Denver. They are rare down here and he has been attracting quite a crowd for months now. It's easy to see why - he's a beauty!
View Larger: www.flickr.com/photos/33403047@N00/4360348134/sizes/l/
Note: this photo was published in an undated (Jan 6, 2011) Everyblock NYC zipcodes blog titled "10036." It was also published in a Mar 19, 2011 Pizza Recipes Recipes for Pizzas blog, with the same caption and detailed notes that I had written on this Flickr page.
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As I noted in this Flickr set a year ago, no New Yorker in his right mind goes to Times Square on New Year's Eve. Nobody from Manhattan, anyway -- you can never tell about those crazy people in the remote boroughs of Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island, or the Bronx (and we won't even try to imagine what those crazy folks in New Jersey might do). Actually, even some residents of Manhattan have experienced the New Year's Eve count-down once in their lives, if only so they can speak with some authority about the subject. In my case, it was back in 1969; and it was only because I had had a pleasant dinner at a fancy restaurant a couple blocks from Times Square, and had to walk to the subway when no taxis could be found. There I was, in the midst of it all ... and once was more than enough.
Why do New Yorkers do their best to stay away from Times Square on New Year's Eve? Well, have you ever looked at a TV report from Times Square in the midst of all that mayhem? There are a gazillion other people out there, jammed against each other, shoulder to shoulder — and they're all drunk (or at least they look that way), and they're all screaming at the top of their lungs. You can't just drive to a nearby corner and park your car, with a plan of getting back in your car and fleeing after you've seen what a crazy idea it was. And you can't take a taxi right to the middle of Times Square — at least, not after mid-afternoon on New Year's Eve. Even worse, there are no public bathrooms anywhere to be found, so you're in trouble if you drink too much beer ... except that the cops do their best, quite understandably, to make sure nobody in the Times Square area (which, on this special night, is broadly defined to cover the area from 34th Street to 59th Street, and from Sixth Avenue to Eighth Avenue) is drinking or doing anything that might look dangerous. Or carrying a backpack that might contain dangerous things.
Consequently, it often seems that most of the crowd has chosen to get roaring drunk before they arrive on the scene. All of which might be great fun if the weather is clear, and the temperature is somewhere above the freezing mark. But if it's 30 degrees or lower, and it's drizzling or raining or snowing, this is not a place where you want to spend six or eight hours standing around with two million of your best (drunken) friends...
Thus, it should not surprise you to hear that I was not in Times Square to watch the ball drop at midnight on New Year's Eve of 2010 (or, for that matter, any other year going back to 1969). However, I remembered that my visit to Times Square in the early afternoon of Dec 31, 2009 had been somewhat interesting, and since the weather forecasters were predicting mild, mostly-sunny skies this year, I thought it might be interesting to try it again.
I took the IRT subway down to Times Square, and then spent the next two hours wandering north up Broadway to about 49th Street, and then back toward 42nd St. again. Even at 1:30 PM, the streets were already crowded with families and tourists, and what seemed to be an even larger number of police. It also seemed like almost everyone was wearing a party hat, or a set of "2011" fake eyeglasses, or some other kind of celebratory costume or adornment. There were also gazillions of digital cameras, and an equal number of Blackberries and cellphones. I wonder how many millions and millions of digital images and video clips were shot during the course of the afternoon.
Perhaps the funniest sight during the afternoon was the frequent appearance of delivery guys wearing bright, colorful, and instantly recognizable Domino's Pizza uniforms, wandering through the crowds with large, insulated "thermal" bags that probably carried half a dozen pizzas. In a couple cases, they were peering anxiously at individuals at a specific street corner; my assumption was that someone had called Domino's from their cell phone, requesting delivery to that exact spot. But in other cases, it looked far more likely that the delivery guys were just wandering around, looking for hungry people that were probably willing to pay a premium price for a good hot slice of pizza ... or the whole darn pie.
Around 2:45 PM, I was wandering south on Broadway once again, but when I got as far as 44th Street, I could see that the cops had completely closed off the next two blocks, and that even the sidewalks were impassable. I knew that they were cordoning the crowd into fenced-in rectangular areas, and that (a) each person allowed into such a rectangular area was first searched by a cop for booze, weapons or other contraband, and (b) once inside the fenced-in area, you weren't allowed out unless you left for good.
As more people arrived, the cops kept moving northwards, filling up one rectangular area after another. The obvious strategy for me, then, was to turn around and head north -- toward the local IRT subway stop at Broadway and 50th Street. But I got no further than 46th Street before everything stopped, and I could make no further progress along the sidewalk, even though I had been hugging the sides of the buildings along the way to avoid the throngs everywhere else. Fortunately, I was only about 10 feet from the corner of Broadway and 46th; but it took a good, solid 15 minutes to actually reach the corner -- at which point I heard the cops yelling to the crowd that they were closing everything down, and that anyone who wanted to go elsewhere would have to take the "side street" (i.e., 46th Street) over to 8th Avenue, in order to navigate further northward.
There were more barricades at 8th Avenue and 46th Street, and the narrow passageways onto 8th Avenue itself were being closed down. I managed to squeeze through, got onto 8th Avenue, and then easily walked up to 50th Street. Back over to Broadway, and I could look down the avenue all the way to the tower on 42nd Street where the ball would drop later tonight. And turning around, I could look several blocks north up Broadway, and see that (a) they were all empty, and (b) the cops had cordoned them off, too. By now, it was about 3:15 PM, and I got the sense that it wouldn't be long before the fenced-in crowds would be all the way up to where I was, and then further north, perhaps all the way up to Central Park at 59th Street.
In any case, it was clearly time to go home. I uploaded the 800+ photos that I had taken during the afternoon, enjoyed a delicious New Year's Eve dinner at home, and then settled down to watch the revelry on television as the countdown came to an end. As I noted at the end of last year's Flickr set of Times Square images, the TV coverage was obviously far more extensive than what I could accomplish with just one DSLR camera; and it was also infinitely more sophisticated, with high-end TV cameras located on strategic vantage points all around the square. On the other hand, the TV images appear, and then disappear, often leaving no lasting impression. By contrast, these still images will hopefully be interesting to look at months, if not years, from now. For better or worse, they'll be here whenever you'd like to see them...
Looks like this one is turning from a Cat 1 storm to a Tropical Storm, which will peter out and become a Tropical Depression somewhere south of Vietnam.
Forecast for the rest of Thursday :
Max 28
Rain easing late.
Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 35 to 70 mm
“We do see a slight slowdown in some regions in end- markets, and the main driver for this is China,” Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld said on a conference call with analysts. Chinese demand may pick up at the end of the fourth quarter because of stimulus spending, he said.
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.......***** All images are copyrighted by their respective authors .......
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.....item 1).... Habor Aluminum ... www.harboraluminum.com/ ...
> aluminum industry analysis, market outlook & forecasts
> key aluminum news & our comments free!
> aluminum other analysts views
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.....item 2).... Reuters ... www.reuters.com ... Press Release
Hydro and Orkla to form the world's leading aluminium solutions provider
* Reuters is not responsible for the content in this press release.
Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:00am EDT
www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/15/idUS33196+15-Oct-2012+...
Norsk Hydro ASA and Orkla ASA have agreed to combine their respective profiles, building systems and tubing business, creating the world's leading aluminium solutions provider. The new combined company, to be named Sapa, will be a 50/50 joint venture owned by Hydro and Orkla.
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.....item 3).... HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS - Worldwide ... www.hellenicshippingnews.com ...
Online Daily Newspaper on Hellenic and International Shipping
Tuesday, 16 October 2012 | 17:43
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Alcoa Cuts Global Aluminum Forecast on China Slowdown
Thursday, 11 October 2012 | 00:00
www.hellenicshippingnews.com/News.aspx?ElementId=582a442a...
Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, cut its forecast for global consumption of the metal by 1 percentage point on slowing Chinese demand, helping to trigger a decline in Asian stocks for a third day.
Demand will climb by 6 percent this year, New York-based Alcoa said yesterday in its third-quarter earnings statement. That’s less than the company’s July prediction for a 7 percent increase in usage.
“We do see a slight slowdown in some regions in end- markets, and the main driver for this is China,” Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld said on a conference call with analysts. Chinese demand may pick up at the end of the fourth quarter because of stimulus spending, he said.
The forecast revision by Alcoa, typically the first company on the Dow Jones Industrial Average to report earnings, comes a day after the International Monetary Fund and Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-biggest mining company, trimmed their growth outlook estimates for China. Aluminum prices in London touched a 34-month low in August as global supply exceeded demand.
“The global economy is clearly slowing,” Lloyd O’Carroll, a Richmond, Virginia-based analyst for Davenport & Co., said yesterday in an interview. “That’s what the IMF said today and so I think what Alcoa is doing is consistent with that.”
--- Shares Drop
Alcoa traded at 7.02 euros as of 9:38 a.m. in Frankfurt. That’s equivalent to $9.03, a 1.1 percent decline from yesterday’s closing price in New York. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) slipped 0.9 percent at 4:42 p.m. in Tokyo, while Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the nation’s biggest producer of the metal, dropped as much as 2.1 percent in Hong Kong.
Demand from heavy-truck and trailer manufacturing will fall this year, Alcoa said. It now sees Chinese truck and trailer output slumping as much as 21 percent, compared with a decline of as much as 8 percent projected three months ago. Chinese can and packaging growth may be 8 percent, down from Alcoa’s July forecast of as much as 20 percent.
The IMF yesterday cut its global growth forecast and lowered its projected expansion for China, the world’s biggest aluminum user, by 0.2 percentage point annually, to 7.8 percent this year and 8.2 percent in 2013. London-based Rio, which has pulled back from projects as sluggish global growth reduced demand for metals, yesterday lowered its estimates for China’s growth to below 8 percent.
--- Net Loss
Alcoa reported a third-quarter net loss of $143 million, or 13 cents a share, compared with net income of $172 million, or 15 cents, a year earlier as sales dropped 9.2 percent. Excluding costs related to environmental remediation and the settlement of a lawsuit brought by Aluminium Bahrain BSC (ALBH), Alcoa had per-share profit of 3 cents. The average of 18 estimates compiled by Bloomberg was for break-even earnings per share.
“We are clearly seeing the impact of a Chinese slowdown globally and it’s indicated in Alcoa’s numbers,” said Nader Naeimi, Sydney-based head of dynamic asset allocation at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which manages almost $100 billion.
Alcoa reiterated that demand will increase this year in the global aerospace, auto, packaging and construction industries.
The company said it improved productivity across all four business units. Its rolled products business posted the highest ever after-tax operating income and the engineered products and solutions segment had a record margin on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
Total sales fell to $5.83 billion from $6.42 billion, beating the $5.56 billion average of 10 estimates.
--- Civil Suit
Alcoa settled a four-year racketeering lawsuit brought by Aluminium Bahrain, the state-owned smelter known as Alba, both companies said yesterday. Alba’s 2008 civil suit alleged that Alcoa bribed officials in Bahrain to charge more for alumina. Alba said it paid $500 million more than it should have.
Alcoa will pay Alba $85 million in two cash installments and agree to a long-term sales agreement, without admitting liability. Alba said the settlement has a total value of $447 million.
Alcoa, Rio Tinto, Norway’s Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) and closely held Zeeland Aluminum have cut 1.21 million metric tons of production capacity since mid-2011, according data compiled by Bloomberg.
Aluminum for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange averaged $1,950 a ton in the third quarter, 20 percent less than a year earlier. It traded at $2,024 a ton as of 8:47 a.m. local time.
Prices below $2,000 may drive more production cuts, Ken Hoffman, a Bloomberg Industries analyst, said last week.
--- Decoupled Price
Alcoa’s Kleinfeld said that the company predicts global demand will exceed supply by 262,000 tons this year.
The aluminum price is “decoupled” from the supply and demand “fundamentals” of the market, and instead is being influenced by investor concerns about the European debt crisis and the slowdown in China, he said on the call.
“The macro factors are currently dominating the pricing situation,” he said. “But it can reverse very, very quickly.”
Aluminum will average $2,212 a ton next year, according to the median of 22 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The metal traded at more than $3,300 in 2008 before the financial crash, and reached a 2011 intraday high of $2,803 a ton.
Alcoa is organized into four segments: alumina, which mines bauxite and processes it into the precursor to aluminum; primary metals, which smelts aluminum; flat-rolled products, which makes sheets used in beverage cans as well as airplane wings and car parts; and engineered products and solutions, which produces aerospace fasteners, turbine blades and truck wheels.
--- Source: Bloomberg
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Area Fair Isle, one of an abstract art series of the 31 Shipping Forecast areas which I created with the ArtRage program.
Our local newspaper is usually on top of all the issues and so is their cartoonist.
Let's hope the weather forecast is correct - we really have been having the warmest winter and spring on record. Does not augur well for summer.
If I told you about the business meeting I was having, you would look at me like I was crazy, right? The rushing ocean drowns all the noise. Oh Banzai, you are SEXY.
East Glacier, Montana. But Luna's serves up a great piece of huckleberry pie for breakfast! Or lunch or dinner, I suppose.
Bird migration forecast maps show predicted nocturnal migration 3 hours after local sunset and are updated every 6 hours. Colorado State University and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology currently produce these forecasts.
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Lots of birds in the air tonight, although migration will be interrupted by a large band of thunderstorms.
Governor Doug Ducey speaking with the Mesa Police Department Honor Guard at the 2022 Legislative Forecast Luncheon hosted by the Arizona Chamber of Commerce & Industry at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.
Please attribute to Gage Skidmore if used elsewhere.
© Austin Sullivan 2010
The forecast predicts it's going to be raining all week :(
But it hasn't rained in a long time, so the grass needs it.
Planning on posting a bird shot from a photo shoot tomorrow!
33/100
Michael Hanley, Head of Digital Communications, Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic Forum and Philip Tetlock, Leonore Annenberg University Professor in Democracy and Citizenship, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, USA and Molly Crockett, Associate Professor of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, United Kingdom at the Annual Meeting 2017 of the World Economic Forum in Davos, January 18, 2017
Copyright by World Economic Forum / Walter Duerst
Today's forecast chemtrails. Needn't worry about that solar wind expected today. I'd worry more about that spray up there.
It's just a few day until the participants arrive, the forecast is saying rain today but sun on the opening ceremony. Photo: Jonas Elmqvist/Scouterna
Density forecasting comparison of volatility models. Catania, Nonejad arxiv.org/abs/1605.00230 #q-fin
Canvas texture applied to the iris photo. Duplicated several times on the back layer & singled out for the top layer. Day 43 2014.
.....partly cloudy!
Please don't use this image on any websites, blogs or other media without my explicit permission.
© All rights reserved
The forecast sun did not show well in the part of Norfolk I went to looking for Adders, so no joy. Carried on to Blakeney for the winter visiting Lapland Buntings who did perform for us. Breeds in the high Arctic & will soon be making their way back there. Male Reed Bunting trying to get in picture on left