View allAll Photos Tagged Forecasting
Weather forecast for Toronto: HOT !
Tomorrow : Hot , Hazy, Humid 31 celcius = 87 Fahrenheit
So much for Spring.....Winter was longer than usual...now it seems Spring is shorter than usual.
Global warming?
UPDATE: Tornado warnings for Toronto now ! (Now canceled thank goodness!!)
Sorry if I have yet to comment on all my contact's streams as I have limited my time on the computer.....
My sciatica is not killing me quite as much but it means that I cannot sit for long..which is not good for work OR my Flickr addiction!!
:~)
Have a great week ahead!
The forecasters in the UK kept referring to weather in the summer of 2016 as "changeable." In practice that meant that nearly every day had periods of heavy clouds or rain showers. As my luck would have it, this meant that the clouds and rain usually occurred late in the day or early evening. So, in more than five weeks in Britain I experienced a total of three really superlative sunsets. This was one of them.
The official weather forecast seems accurate and there is some stuff on it's way. The change in the light was astounding around mid-afternoon as seen here.
A very odd day in more ways than one as I had to spend a couple of hours unblocking our main drain to the road, about 30 metres away and all in hot sunshine. Clearing the blockage was unpleasant obviously but fairly quickly resolved. It is the clearing up afterwards that takes the time. Just thought I would share that with you!
Leander is obscured from view by the steam from 45407 as the LMS pair power through Wetheral station with 'The Hadrian' railtour on the 7th March 2015.
Friday, 19 July 2019 - our temperature is 13C (windchill 11C) this afternoon. Forecast is for cloudy with light rain this afternoon and evening. This is summer??
A couple of days ago, after seven or so long, brutal months of winter (coldest on record?) and now endless weeks of rain and cloud, I finally decided, enough is enough. I have become a fair-weather photographer, and we don't get that much fair weather, especially this year. So, yesterday, 18 July 2019, despite the weather forecast for a thunderstorm, I decided to drive SE of the city mid-afternoon. A few more days, and I will be spending the day with my daughter, though I'm not sure yet where she will choose to go. She (me, too) loves the Saskatoon Farm, but also wants to get out to a few golden Canola fields. Thought I would scout around beforehand. My plan had been to go to the Farm first and have a meal, and then continue on to Frank Lake. Seeing the beautiful storm clouds on my drive south, I was torn as to whether to go to Frank Lake first and catch a few photos. Then it occurred to me that I could also get a few sky shots once I had turned off the main highway and on to the country road leading to the Farm.
The Farm was pretty busy. So much wonderful colour everywhere that I almost forgot about the weather. That is, until I was eating outside under the open shelter. It was so cold, I had goosebumps, and the wind increased, sending a huge picnic table umbrella flying fast through the air. Just a short bit of rain and all returned to normal.
As usual, I wandered around the grounds, shooting flowers, rabbits, landscape, clouds, and old tractors. One barn stood out to me and had me puzzled. I have visited the farm many times before, but I don't remember seeing this particular barn before. It looked so pretty, with its colourful flower border.
Eventually, I continued my drive to Frank Lake. The storm clouds stayed with me. One side road has a small wetland on either side of the road and I pulled over to check what birds might be there. I was about to turn off my car when a loud buzzer sounded and a tornado alert was announced - to take shelter and if there was no shelter nearby, to get into a ditch or ravine. Then I heard that the area covered was further SE - in fact, where I had been a week earlier.
"Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) confirmed a weak EF0 tornado touched down two kilometres northeast of Crossfield at around 2:15 p.m. Sunday, 14 July 2019, marking the 12th confirmed twister of the season." (This was roughly 50 km north of Calgary.)
According to the weather agency, Alberta typically sees an average of 15 tornadoes per year with the peak season starting mid-to-late June and ending early-to-mid August.
So far in 2019, there have been 12 confirmed tornadoes in Alberta and three probable ones. There have also been many reports of funnel clouds." From Global News.
While i was standing by this wetland a White-faced Ibis flew in. I believe this was the first one I had really seen and photographed this year. Further on, when I was at the blind, there were so many Ruddy Ducks. The Barn Swallow pair flew back and forth to their nest that is just out of sight. I had checked to see if I could spot the Red Knot (bird), but without binoculars, it was pretty much impossible to check the very distant water birds.
A very enjoyable afternoon/evening. Mid-evening, the main highway wasn't very busy, and the rain only started when I arrived home and had to get out of the car.
.... sunny with spells of rain!! Although, this was taken a couple of days ago that weather forecast stands for today!! Most certainly cooling down!!
Flickr Lounge ~ Weekly Theme (Week 41) ~ Seasonal Changes ....
Stay Safe and Healthy Everyone!
Thanks to everyone who views this photo, adds a note, leaves a comment and of course BIG thanks to anyone who chooses to favourite my photo .... Thanks to you all!
It's challenging to make predictions, especially in astronomy. There are however, a few forecasts astronomers can depend on, such as the timing of upcoming lunar and solar eclipses and the clockwork return of some comets.
Now, looking far beyond the solar system, astronomers have added a solid prediction of an event happening deep in intergalactic space: an image of an exploding star, dubbed Supernova Requiem, which will appear around the year 2037. Although this rebroadcast will not be visible to the naked eye, some future telescopes should be able to spot it.
It turns out that this future appearance will be the fourth-known view of the same supernova, magnified, brightened, and split into separate images by a massive foreground cluster of galaxies acting like a cosmic zoom lens. Three images of the supernova were first found from archival data taken in 2016 by NASA's Hubble Space Telescope.
The multiple images are produced by the monster galaxy cluster's powerful gravity, which distorts and magnifies the light from the supernova far behind it, an effect called gravitational lensing. First predicted by Albert Einstein, this effect is similar to a glass lens bending light to magnify the image of a distant object.
The three lensed supernova images, seen as tiny dots captured in a single Hubble snapshot, represent light from the explosive aftermath. The dots vary in brightness and color, which signify three different phases of the fading blast as it cooled over time.
"This new discovery is the third example of a multiply imaged supernova for which we can actually measure the delay in arrival times," explained lead researcher Steve Rodney of the University of South Carolina in Columbia. "It is the most distant of the three, and the predicted delay is extraordinarily long. We will be able to come back and see the final arrival, which we predict will be in 2037, plus or minus a couple of years."
The light that Hubble captured from the cluster, MACS J0138.0-2155, took about four billion years to reach Earth. The light from Supernova Requiem needed an estimated 10 billion years for its journey, based on the distance of its host galaxy.
The team's prediction of the supernova's return appearance is based on computer models of the cluster, which describe the various paths the supernova light is taking through the maze of clumpy dark matter in the galactic grouping. Dark matter is an invisible material that comprises the bulk of the universe's matter and is the scaffolding upon which galaxies and galaxy clusters are built.
Each magnified image takes a different route through the cluster and arrives at Earth at a different time, due, in part, to differences in the length of the pathways the supernova light followed.
"Whenever some light passes near a very massive object, like a galaxy or galaxy cluster, the warping of space-time that Einstein's theory of general relativity tells us is present for any mass, delays the travel of light around that mass," Rodney said.
He compares the supernova's various light paths to several trains that leave a station at the same time, all traveling at the same speed and bound for the same location. Each train, however, takes a different route, and the distance for each route is not the same. Because the trains travel over different track lengths across different terrain, they do not arrive at their destination at the same time.
In addition, the lensed supernova image predicted to appear in 2037 lags behind the other images of the same supernova because its light travels directly through the middle of the cluster, where the densest amount of dark matter resides. The immense mass of the cluster bends the light, producing the longer time delay. "This is the last one to arrive because it's like the train that has to go deep down into a valley and climb back out again. That's the slowest kind of trip for light," Rodney explained.
The lensed supernova images were discovered in 2019 by Gabe Brammer, a study co-author at the Cosmic Dawn Center at the Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, in Denmark. Brammer spotted the mirrored supernova images while analyzing distant galaxies magnified by massive foreground galaxy clusters as part of an ongoing Hubble program called REsolved QUIEscent Magnified Galaxies (REQUIEM).
He was comparing new REQUIEM data from 2019 with archival images taken in 2016 from a different Hubble science program. A tiny red object in the 2016 data caught his eye, which he initially thought was a far-flung galaxy. But it had disappeared in the 2019 images.
"But then, on further inspection of the 2016 data, I noticed there were actually three magnified objects, two red and a purple," he explained. "Each of the three objects was paired with a lensed image of a distant massive galaxy. Immediately it suggested to me that it was not a distant galaxy but actually a transient source in this system that had faded from view in the 2019 images like a light bulb that had been flicked off."
Brammer teamed up with Rodney to conduct a further analysis of the system. The lensed supernova images are arranged in an arc around the cluster's core. They appear as small dots near the smeared orange features that are thought to be the magnified snapshots of the supernova's host galaxy.
Study co-author Johan Richard of the University of Lyon in France produced a map of the amount of dark matter in the cluster, inferred from the lensing it produces. The map shows the predicted locations of lensed objects. This supernova is predicted to appear again in 2042, but it will be so faint that the research team thinks it will not be visible.
Catching the rerun of the explosive event will help astronomers measure the time delays between all four supernova images, which will offer clues to the type of warped-space terrain the exploded star's light had to cover. Armed with those measurements, researchers can fine-tune the models that map out the cluster's mass. Developing precise dark-matter maps of massive galaxy clusters is another way for astronomers to measure the universe's expansion rate and investigate the nature of dark energy, a mysterious form of energy that works against gravity and causes the cosmos to expand at a faster rate.
This time-delay method is valuable because it's a more direct way of measuring the universe's expansion rate, Rodney explained. "These long time delays are particularly valuable because you can get a good, precise measurement of that time delay if you are just patient and wait years, in this case more than a decade, for the final image to return," he said. "It is a completely independent path to calculate the universe's expansion rate. The real value in the future will be using a larger sample of these to improve the precision."
Spotting lensed images of supernovae will become increasingly common in the next 20 years with the launch of NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope and the start of operations at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Both telescopes will observe large swaths of the sky, which will allow them to spot dozens more multiply imaged supernovae.
Future telescopes such as NASA's James Webb Space Telescope also could detect light from supernova Requiem at other epochs of the blast. The team's results will appear on September 13 in the journal Nature Astronomy.
The Hubble Space Telescope is a project of international cooperation between NASA and ESA (European Space Agency). NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, manages the telescope. The Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI) in Baltimore, Maryland, conducts Hubble science operations. STScI is operated for NASA by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy in Washington, D.C.
For more information: www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2021/rerun-of-supernova-blas...
Forecast for the rest of Tuesday :
Max 31
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 60%
Five more photos from my long drive south of the city, on 2 June 2021.
We are having a few very hot days this week, and we are still under a Heat Warning. "A heat wave is forecast for Alberta beginning Wednesday and lasting until Friday. Daytime highs ranging between 28 to 35 degrees Celsius and overnight lows between 13 to 18 degrees Celsius can be expected." In these temperatures, I will have to make sure I get out of the house when I can, as my place becomes unbearable (no air-conditioning). It got up to 32C yesterday afternoon.
The day before yesterday, 2 June 2021, it reached 33C south of the city and I was so thankful to spend the day driving my car with air-conditioning. Usually, I do this particular drive, a favourite of mine, in July, but I just couldn't wait till then. Most likely I will go again in a few weeks' time. For me, it is a long drive, and the highway parts seem to go on and on forever.
As tends to happen, I set out later than I had planned and, as a result, arrived back home not all that long before it would start getting dark. I headed south of the city and, after just checking to see if the beautiful Merlin I had photographed recently was still around (she wasn't), I began to make my way eastwards. Most of the roads were ones that I had driven before, but only occasionally. I always find all sorts of things to photograph; everything from birds to old cars and homesteads. This means I always have a great day and arrive home with a smile on my face. Unfortunately, this day was extremely hazy, almost blocking out distant views of the foothills and mountains.
A new find for me was a tiny, country church, that I had seen a photo of online. It showed beautiful stained glass windows in the bell tower, but I discovered that the church could only be seen from the road, unless someone trespassed or got permission. Zooming in, I could see that there was no longer any stained glass in the bell tower. Disappointing, but I was determined to take a handful of distant shots, despite being blurry. A touch of filter added in post-processing meant I could post a photo yesterday morning, just as a record.
As always, it was great to see a couple of Swainson's Hawks and a Ferruginous Hawk. Nice to come across a Horned Lark on a fence post, too.
It was interesting to see all the wildlife with their mouths/beaks open because of the heat! Even two deer that I briefly stopped to see, walked away so slowly. I suspect that, on a cooler day, they would have run away fast.
The forecast today was for rain, and plenty of it, so I spent most of the day in the Gwydyr Forest on a lovely walk with Dave Dear around Llyn Elsi, Rhiwddolion and the Afon Llugwy...it didn't rain!
After saying goodbye to Dave I went for something to eat and then for a drive into Ogwen where I saw the 'magic slot' out over Anglesey.
I had to think quickly and with no time to lose went to Moel y Ci and ran halfway up it before realising that the light was going to be brief and would wait for no one!
I usually sit in one place waiting for things to come right so this shot is a rare one for me...one of those 'look around and get a composition quickly' shots!
Forecast was for a pretty good aurora display this night, but perhaps it was somewhere else, and somewhat different time... aurora on the northwestern horizon was barely visible.
-41F this night.
The forecast was for a "mostly cloudy" night. After discovering this location, I was trying to figure out how I could sneak away during the work week when the forecast became clear in order to capture a night image here. But, as I looked up at the sky in the evening it began to clear and I realized it was my chance. In the middle of the night I drove high up onto the Temblor Range ridge line to this spot and set up cameras at around 12:30 in the morning, exhausted. I set my A7iii for continuous eight minute exposures and went to bed. I wanted the lupines in the shot but didn't quite want the entire stone face on the mountain. You can see it peeking up from behind one of the bush lupines. In fact I had planned on shooting this at a different spot entirely but someone was camped there and they probably wouldn't have been enthusiastic about an after midnight intruder to their spot. By the time morning rolled around a lot of clouds had come in and I wasn't sure I captured much overnight. But, I was wrong. My camera and tripod, weighted down with 30 pounds of sand to ward off the wind, had managed to capture a fairly clear stretch of about 80 minutes. This image is a combination of 10 eight minute exposures added together for the sky and one 8 minute exposure for the foreground that was shot at ISO 1600 instead of ISO 500. There was no moon, but the light from civilization in California's Central Valley provided lots of ambient glow from the East as you can see in this view looking North.
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Stena Forecaster arriving at Birkenhead's Twelve Quay's Terminal to replace her sister Stena Forerunner who departed for Europoort.
Name:Stena Forecaster
IMO:9214678
Flag:Sweden
MMSI:266040000
Callsign:SCKZ
Vessel type:Ro-ro Cargo
Gross tonnage:24,688 tons
Summer DWT:12,300 tons
Home port:Gothenburg
Class society:Det Norske Veritas
Build year:2003
Builder: DALIAN SHIPYARD - DALIAN, CHINA
Bird migration forecast maps show predicted nocturnal migration 3 hours after local sunset and are updated every 6 hours. Colorado State University and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology currently produce these forecasts..
Lots of birds in the air tongiht. A good time to visit Birdcast.info and look at the live radar. Then walk outside and listen for awhile.
Panorama double exposure shot in two different cameras by two different people. Fujifilm Neopan 400. First Camera was a DIY panoramic 135 format back made by modifying a Mamiya RB67 back, mounted on a Mamiya-Press G with a Mamiya-Press 50mm lens. The second camera was the DIY Frankenbessa (with a 90mm/8 Schneider Kreuznach Super Angulon lens) made by Graham Young, with a 56mm by 24mm X-Pan mask for 135 format film.
Kind of a strange morning in that police sent me from the shoreline of Adler Planetarium to this nearby spot for my morning drone flight. I'm use to them only telling me to bring it down. This morning would be surprisingly different in that he gave me a close alternative. Very nice police interaction I must say. "Make sure to stay below 400 feet", he would say. I thanked him, packed up and moved on to this rather cool launch point. youtu.be/q00Y4RC5U3c to checkout short drone flight from here.
Forecast Summary
"Heavy, blustery showers will feed in from the northwest today affecting all parts, with the risk of hail and thunder. There will be sunny spells in between the showers but it will feel cool, especially in the strong wind."
BBC Weather
With the imminent demise of HST's along the north Cotswold line and beyond to Hereford I have taken every opportunity avaialable to capture the last days.
43174 with 43022 on the rear head through very murky conditions on the approach to Ledbury tunnel on 5-2-19
Had it been sunny the shadows would have caused a problem at this time of year
The working was the final regular day time HST service, the 1W00 0821 London Paddington to Hereford operates by Great Western Railway
The last HST through to Hereford operated on the 15-2-19
The Malvern hills which are normally visible have disappeared from view due to the cloud and mist.
Bird migration forecast maps show predicted nocturnal migration 3 hours after local sunset and are updated every 6 hours. Colorado State University and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology currently produce these forecasts.
Forecasting.
I've used this recently for a lecture on forecasting (for ' 08).
I think the students were interested.
Sometimes it's hard to tell.
Bird migration forecasts show predicted nocturnal migration 3 hours after local sunset and are updated every 6 hours. These forecasts come from models trained on the last 23 years of bird movements in the atmosphere as detected by the US NEXRAD weather surveillance radar network. In these models we use the Global Forecasting System (GFS) to predict suitable conditions for migration occurring three hours after local sunset. These maps also show precipitation forecasts (outlined and shown in grayscale). Note, areas forecast to experience precipitation and bird migration may overlap, and predictions for migration intensity may be highly variable in these locations.
Colorado State University and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology currently produce these forecasts. Leon Levy Foundation, Edward W. Rose Postdoctoral Fellowship, and the Marshall Aid Commemoration Commission supported this research, with additional support from University of Massachusetts Amherst and University of Oklahoma. The BirdCast project was created with grant awards from the National Science Foundation and subsequently supported by awards from Leon Levy Foundation.
Violent weather, 5 days forecast
Storm and hurricane winds hit Denmark from Thursday afternoon and night to Friday
Wednesday 4th December 2013
Sunrise / Sunset: 8:46 / 15:48, length of the day 7:02, diminished 10:40
Moon up: 9:50 / Moon sets: 17:49
Central and Western Jutland
Cloudy with rain during the morning clearing but with showers.
Wednesday, 4 December 2013.
Weather in force until Thursday morning, sent pm. 05:00.
For the morning and in the morning cloudy and misty and rainy and then. Otherwise, doing it up from the northwest with any or part sun, but also from noon showers. Temp. about 8 degrees, and easy to fresh, local strong wind from the west and northwest. In the evening and at night partly clear weather, but also continue to dominate. Temp. down between 3 and 7 degrees. It blows up, the wind increases to strong winds to gale from the southwest and west.