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Buffalo Gal -- "Growing up in the snowblower society of Buffalo, New York, Laura Pedersen s first words were most likely turn the wheel into a skid. Like many families subsisting in the frigid North during the energy crisis, the Pedersens feared rising prices at the gas pump, argued about the thermostat, fought over the dog to stay warm at night, and often slept in their clothes. While her parents were preoccupied with surviving separation and stagflation, daughter Laura became the neighborhood wild child, skipping school, playing poker, betting on the horses, and trading stocks. Learning how to beat the odds, by high school graduation Pedersen was well prepared to seek her fortune on Wall Street, becoming the youngest person to have a seat on the American Stock Exchange and a millionaire by age 21." -- from www.amazon.com
I enjoyed this book very much...just as much as I enjoyed her other book about Buffalo. I recognized a lot of the places and situations she described and every page reminded me of home.
Buffalo Gal -- Started: Feb. 26, 2011 Finished: Feb. 27, 2011
25 Book Challenge 2011 Book #22
Sssssssshhhhhhh. We'll all be dead soon, just...
Don't.
Mention.
The.
Brexit !!!
In a bold strategy to beat Covid-19, Britain's Fascist misgovernment forges ahead with the supercharged Killer Austerity of Brexit.
There won't be any new infections if we are all already dead by brain disease, starvation and hypothermia.
There's method to their badness.
And the BBC will be there with the goverment, lockstep by lockstep, for the Fascist March over the British people, covering up all the crimes and corruption in their role as Conservative Party Press Office. News at 10, live from the Poodle's Lair.
Heil, Heil Freedumbia!
Who won the Cod Wars anyway? Oh, Iceland, 3-0.
Are you watching Maggie Thatcher? Your wet fish took a hell of a battering!
But they're happier for it. Masochism, the English Disease.
So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish.
I bought 30 gallons today, enough to get me about 300 miles or maybe as much as 350 miles if highway....
This is really getting worse and worse! No wonder the economy is in stagflation (stagnation plus inflation). This is going to really SUCK for the foreseeable future! Better get used to it.
fortune.com/2022/10/21/larry-summers-warns-doom-loop-defi...
Larry Summers warns of a dreaded economic ‘Doom Loop’ and says America should pay close attention to the UK’s troubles
The economist warned that governments need to pay increasing attention to their mounting deficits and surging borrowing costs.
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Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that policy makers in the US and elsewhere should heed the fiscal lessons from the UK’s recent crisis, and not assume Britain’s troubles were unique.
“That would be a real mistake” to conclude that other countries wouldn’t end up confronting similar challenges, Summers told Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin. The first lesson from the UK is “that things can change extraordinarily fast.”
Governments need to pay increasing attention to their budgets, with mounting deficits alongside surging borrowing costs having the potential for shaking confidence, he said. In the US, student-loan forgiveness, emergency funding for Hurricane Ian and rising defense spending needs suggest that fiscal debates will need to be “back on the table,” he said.
“If your deficit projection starts to get out of control and your real interest rates start to rise rapidly, you can get into a kind of doom loop,” said Summers, a Harvard University professor and paid contributor to Bloomberg Television. “We’re going to need to be watching our own fiscal projections in the United States very carefully.”
Outgoing UK Prime Minister Liz Truss abandoned a program of unfunded tax cuts after its unveiling prompted a destabilizing selloff in UK government bonds.
Yellen on Friday recognized the importance of having “a credible fiscal policy and to make sure the debt is sustainable over time,” and argued that “our budgets have done that.” She hailed fresh data showing an historic drop in the deficit.
Yellen’s Take
“I do see our debt as being on a responsible path,” Yellen said in answering questions from reporters.
Summers said that a further risk stemming from government debt markets is the concern with deteriorating trading conditions. He endorsed Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s recent expression of concern over a “loss of adequate liquidity” in US Treasuries.
While rising borrowing costs are escalating the risks, Summers cautioned that it would be unwise for the Federal Reserve to be dissuaded from continuing with its plans for aggressive interest-rate hikes. Failing to follow through would mean “stagflation,” with high inflation making an economic downturn all the worse.
Inflation is at risk of getting fresh impetus from a spike in oil prices, the former Treasury chief also said. He worried over US “confrontation” with what he described as a “Russian-Saudi axis.” The Biden administration has blasted Saudi Arabia’s recent push to reduce oil production, while it’s also pursuing an oil-price cap on Russian crude.
“This is going to be a very complex time and I hope that we get through it while avoiding oil price spikes,” he said. But “my guess is that that’s going to happen,” he added.
‘Downside Wildcard’
A renewed spike in oil is “a major downside wildcard from here, both with respect to inflation, and with respect to recession.”
Once the US does enter a recession, Washington will need to be careful with regard to deploying any fiscal support package, Summers also said — given the danger of a negative response in the bond market. It’s one consequence of having rapidly run up government borrowing in recent years, he said.
“Unfortunately, I think we fired the fiscal cannon so strongly that there’s going to be limited room for discretionary fiscal policy if we have another recession,” he said.
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www.bbc.com/news/business-62049990
UK economic outlook has deteriorated, Bank of England warns
The economic outlook for the UK and the rest of the world has "deteriorated materially", the Bank of England has warned.
Energy and fuel costs are rising rapidly around the world, pushing up prices in general more quickly.
However, UK banks are in a position to weather even a severe economic downturn, the Bank said.
It told banks to keep more money in rainy day funds to ensure they can weather any storm.
The Bank's comments came in its latest Financial Stability Report.
International forecasters such as the IMF and OECD have said Britain is more susceptible to recession and persistently high inflation than other Western countries, all of which are grappling with energy and commodity market shocks.
While the Bank said the UK's banking sector was well-placed to cope with a severe downturn, it said banks must increase the amount of money they set aside to absorb shocks. Starting a year from now, banks will be required to set aside a sum equal to 2% of their assets as a buffer, as opposed to the normal 1%.
The Financial Policy Committee said it could vary the rate in either direction depending on how the global economy pans out.
Inflation hit
Households have come under increasing pressure in recent months, as energy, food and fuel prices soar.
In April, domestic energy bills jumped after the price cap was increased by 54% to £1,971 for the average household.
Experts believe this could rise again in October, to around £2,800, which could help to push inflation up to more than 11% later this year.
"Commodity price volatility following the Russian invasion of Ukraine has further exacerbated price pressures facing households and businesses, and has had implications for the financial system," the Bank said.
Some households could struggle with debt. About 80% of mortgages are currently on fixed interest rates, but some 40% of these are set for renewal this year or next, which could push up costs for these households.
"Tighter financial conditions and reduced real incomes will weigh on debt affordability for households, businesses and governments in many countries, increasing the risks from global debt vulnerabilities," the Bank said.
However, despite increasing pressure on household budgets, the Bank said financial institutions were resilient to debt vulnerabilities among households and businesses.
The pound also lowered 1.6% against the dollar and hit a two-year low on Tuesday.
Another surge in gas prices in Europe and the UK which could push inflation higher again, has added to fears the economy could slide into a recession.
It says something about the lengths that have been gone to over the past 15 years to shore up the resilience of the banking system that it looks, according to this report, comfortably able to withstand not only the biggest economic contraction in 300 years over the pandemic, but also stagflation and the highest inflation in four decades.
It's more households and small firms, rather than the financial sector, that are vulnerable at the moment.
The Financial Policy Committee said that households' debts haven't shot up - yet - in response to the cost of living crisis, and it also takes the view that the proportion of households who spend a large portion of their incomes on servicing debts will remain manageable, in spite of rising interest rates, because of the package of help from the government.
Its members are similarly sanguine about the effect on small businesses, acknowledging they could be hit by falling demand from households with declining real incomes, but forecasting that it would "take large increases in borrowing costs" to impair their ability to service their debts.
Let's hope the committee's optimism isn't misplaced.
www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-england-tells-lenders-brace...
Bank of England tells lenders to brace for economic storm
LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - The Bank of England warned on Tuesday that the economic outlook for Britain and the world had darkened and told banks to ramp up capital buffers to ensure they can weather the storm.
"The economic outlook for the UK and globally has deteriorated materially," the BoE said as it published its latest Financial Stability Report, adding that developments around the war in Ukraine would be a key factor.
17. REUTERS/ Benoit Tessier/Illustration/File Photo
LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - The Bank of England warned on Tuesday that the economic outlook for Britain and the world had darkened and told banks to ramp up capital buffers to ensure they can weather the storm.
"The economic outlook for the UK and globally has deteriorated materially," the BoE said as it published its latest Financial Stability Report, adding that developments around the war in Ukraine would be a key factor.
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International forecasters like the IMF and OECD say Britain is more susceptible to recession and persistently high inflation than other Western countries, all of whom are grappling with global energy and commodity market shocks.
British banks were well-placed to weather even a severe economic downturn, the BoE said, although it noted their capital ratios - while still strong - were expected to decline slightly in the coming quarters.
Members of the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) confirmed that the BoE will double the counter-cyclical capital buffer (CCYB) rate to 2% July next year, and said it could vary the rate in either direction depending on how the global economy pans out.
The CCYB rate represents an extra buffer for banks that varies depending on the economic outlook.
Despite a worsening cost-of-living crunch, with inflation heading towards double digits, the BoE said banks were resilient to debt vulnerabilities among households and businesses.
The central bank also expressed unease over the health of core financial markets - such as U.S. and British government bonds - which were the subject of the March 2020 "dash for cash" when the COVID-19 pandemic prompted panic selling.
"Amid high volatility, liquidity conditions deteriorated even in usually highly liquid markets such as U.S. Treasuries, gilts and interest rate futures," the BoE said.
It noted that core British markets - while still functional - had become more expensive to trade, with bid-ask spreads on short-dated gilts more than doubling compared with their 2021 average.
"(Conditions) could continue to deteriorate, especially if market volatility increases further," the BoE said.
The BoE also said it would conduct an in-depth analysis of the functioning of the commodities market, with metals trade severely disrupted in March by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The central bank said it would begin its 2022 stress test of banks - delayed due to the war - in September, with the results likely to come in mid-2023.
stagflation on board. You are allowed to use this image on your website. If you do, please link back to my site as the source: creditscoregeek.com/
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Mike Cohen
The spectre of stagflation: Things can only get worse,
Jul 17th 2008,
From The Economist print edition
Steven Spielberg meets Jimmy Stewart. Here I am preflighting a C-152 in about 1977. I hadn't even solo'd yet. My senior year at UT I resumed taking flying lessons again after some lessons my senior year of high school. As a film major I looked the part. It wasn't long before I lost the beard in an effort to look more like a pilot who wasn't running drugs. Soon I sold every possession I had to pay for flying lessons. It was during the Jimmy Carter stagflation economy, and jobs were scarce. I took odd jobs here and there, flight instructed, and then finally, joined the Air Force.
Let's Make America Great Again (Again) Again 🇺🇸 Ronald Reagan 1980
Make America Great Again (MAGA) is an American political slogan and movement. The phrase “Let's Make America Great Again” was used in Ronald Reagan's 1980 presidential campaign. At the time the United States was suffering from a worsening economy at home marked by stagflation. Using the country's economic distress as a springboard for his campaign, Reagan used the slogan to stir a sense of patriotism among the electorate. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MAGA
“The blowout victory of Donald Trump and the Republican party on Tuesday night will lead to major changes in important policy areas, from immigration to Ukraine. But the significance of the election extends way beyond these specific issues, and represents a decisive rejection by American voters of liberalism and the particular way that the understanding of a “free society” has evolved since the 1980s.”
Francis Fukuyama: what Trump unleashed means for America on.ft.com/4fCcw31
Did Reagan pave the way for Trump? www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/21/ronald-reagan-tru...
How does Donald Trump compare to Ronald Reagan? - BBC Newsnight with Michael Cockerell youtu.be/C_lY_XD6aVA
Public domain picture of a button from Ronald Reagan's 1980 U.S. presidential campaign via Wikimedia Commons w.wiki/Btxw
stagflation on calculator. Please feel free to use this image that I've created on your website or blog. If you do, I'd greatly appreciate a link back to my blog as the source: CreditDebitPro.com
Example: Photo by www.creditdebitpro.com
Thanks!
Mike Lawrence
In February 2008, I predicted that 'stagflation' was a word we would be hearing a lot more of in the following 12 months. Then in May, I spotted The Independent with this front cover. To read more, visit engineroomblog.blogspot.com/2008/05/in-which-jd-was-right... or to see my original post on stagflation, visit engineroomblog.blogspot.com/2008/02/word-of-day-stagflati...
stagflation on board. You are allowed to use this image on your website. If you do, please link back to my site as the source: creditscoregeek.com/
Example: Photo by Credit Score Blog
Thank you!
Mike Cohen
www.marketwatch.com/story/stagflation-concerns-mount-amer...
Stagflation concerns mount: Americans are increasingly worried about red-hot inflation, jobs and their own deteriorating finances
The latest read on consumer expectations from the New York Federal Reserve comes days after an inflation report for May that rattled markets
Consumer inflation expectations are back at record highs, but people have no plans to slow their spending, according to a regional Federal Reserve bank survey released Monday.
Households saw a 6.6% median inflation rate in the year ahead, tying a record high first set in March, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s consumer expectation survey.
“In contrast, the median three-year-ahead inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.9%,” the Fed report said.
While people participating in the survey were more certain about persistent inflation, it showed record high levels of uncertainty about what the next three years have in store.
Concerns about stagflation — rising rates coupled with an increase in unemployment and slowing economic growth — also appear to be mounting. But it bears repeating that the U.S. is not anywhere close to double-digit unemployment, which comprises one of the technical definitions of stagflation.
Mean unemployment expectations — or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now — rose for the third consecutive month to 38.6% in May from 36.3% in April, the Fed said. This is the highest reading since February 2021.
While U.S. unemployment claims jumped 27,000 to five-month high of 229,000 for the seven days ended June 4, raw or actual jobless claims were little changed. However, some economists say the economy is likely to slow in the months ahead as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in an effort to keep a lid on inflation. Some companies have already cut back on their hiring plans, and even rescinded some offers. On a positive note: The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6% in May, near a 54-year low.
The latest New York Fed survey was released days after May’s red-hot inflation data amid murmurs of another looming recession. It also comes on the heels of several other consumer-sentiment surveys showing a pall of pessimism over American consumers.
In fact, expectations about median spending growth by households climbed to a record high of a 9%, the survey data showed. It’s the fifth straight increase for the New York Fed’s monthly gauge on consumer mood and outlook. Survey participants without college degrees and those in the 40 -60 demographic were under particular pressure to increase their spending, the survey suggested.
People are struggling to keep up with rising prices, as more respondents said their finances are worse now than they were a year ago. In fact, the average perceived chance of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months increased by 0.4 percentage point to 11.1%. The Fed research notes the increase was “most pronounced” for the age 40-60 demographic.
The survey follows Friday’s release of inflation data showing year-over-year inflation rate of 8.6%, remaining at a 40-year high.
The “catastrophically bad” Consumer Price Index numbers burned investors Friday and the day ended with a sharp sell off. Adding to those pressures: The national average cost for a gallon of gas reached $5 on Saturday, according to AAA.
“The mean reported probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 1.7 percentage point to 36.2%,” the New York Fed said.
The stock market is looking no better on Monday as the S&P 500 SPX could be poised to close in bear market territory, defined as a 20% pullback from a recent high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA was down more than 2% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP was down more than 4% in Monday morning trading.
The New York Fed survey comes days ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next decision on interest rate increases in its ongoing attempts to tame inflation. The Fed has already raised the benchmark rate twice. An increase in the benchmark rate causes other rates, including rates on credit cards and personal loans, to jump.
Perceptions of credit access slipped again in May, marking the fifth straight month where consumers say credit access is becoming more difficult.
fortune.com/2022/06/07/world-bank-global-recession-inflat...
The World Bank says most countries are headed for a recession, and warns of a possible return to 1970s ‘stagflation’
A recession looks likely, but if inflation doesn’t go down, something even worse might be in store for the global economy.
Investors, bankers, and entrepreneurs have been discussing the chances of a coming recession for months. Now the world’s premier international credit institution is joining the chorus that a recession is likely, and warns that something even worse might be on the horizon.
Global economic growth is expected to slow down before the end of the year, and most countries should begin preparing for a recession, according to the World Bank’s latest global economic forecast released on Tuesday.
“For many countries, recession will be hard to avoid,” wrote World Bank president David Malpass.
Growth takes a hit
The rate of global growth is expected to slow from 5.7% in 2021 to 2.9% this year, according to the report. The World Bank, which acts as an international lending body for developing economies, had forecasted 4.1% growth for 2022 last January.
The global economy had already been impaired by the aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which left international supply chains in tatters and significantly hampered income growth and poverty reduction efforts in developing countries, according to the report.
This led the World Bank to predict a slower yet robust next few years of global growth starting from 2022, but after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the institution was forced to significantly downgrade its expectations to account for soaring food and fuel prices and disrupted international trade networks.
“Just over two years after COVID-19 caused the deepest global recession since World War II, the world economy is again in danger,” Malpass wrote.
In the U.S., Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a rapid rise in prices have pushed the Federal Reserve into a strategy of aggressive interest rate hikes to tame inflation, but this is making investors increasingly skittish. If interest rates go too high, as more and more economists believe might be inevitable, the economy could risk backsliding into a contraction and a recession.
The word “recession” might evoke scary images of the 2008 market crash, but most economists think that if there is a recession, a downturn of that magnitude is unlikely, with most assuring people that the outcome will likely be a mild recession, as is normal at the end of business cycles.
But the World Bank is warning that even a mild recession could leave lasting scars on the global economy, as the combination of today’s economic forces could lead to “stagflation,” a mixture of low growth and high prices that is toxic to economies in developing countries.
The return of stagflation?
Malpass mentioned the threat of stagflation multiple times in the World Bank report, noting similarities in monetary policy environments between now and the last time stagflation hit.
“Several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth are now likely, with potentially destabilizing consequences for low- and middle-income economies. It’s a phenomenon—stagflation—that the world has not seen since the 1970s,” he wrote.
Stagflation occurs when economic growth goes through a significant slowdown, but inflation and high prices persist. The last time the world went through a stagflationary period was during the 1970s oil shocks, when high oil prices caused high inflation worldwide and a recession in countries that imported large oil volumes from the Middle East.
Stagflation can be considered the worst of all worlds, as inflation usually tends to counteract a shrinking economy. But the same conditions that kick-started 1970s stagflation appear to be making a return.
“The interest rate increases that were required to control inflation at the end of the 1970s were so steep that they touched off a global recession, along with a string of debt crises in developing economies, ushering in a ‘lost decade’ in some of them,” Malpass wrote, adding that the same patterns of subdued growth, high interest rates, and escalating public debt in many countries are playing out today.
Resuming normal supply-chain operations and increasing production around the world are key to avoiding stagflation, Malpass said, but it won’t be easy. COVID-19 lockdowns in China’s production hubs over the past few months dealt a blow to global manufacturing, and energy constraints as a result of the war are standing in the way of supply chains returning to full normalcy.
Here's the "stag" portion of the stagflation conundrum: dormant economic activity+inflation. Too soon to panic (panic is never useful) but not too soon to reconsider future policy directives.
The bedsheet sign reads, "Screw the Troika." We saw several of these demonstrations in Portugal, from Lisbon to Porto. They were remarkable not just because of their peacefulness but the mix of people: young, old, laborers, hipsters, families with kids, LGBT groups, unions, etc. Since then, these demonstrations have grown much larger and more confrontational with police.
I think there's a strong lesson to be learned from the sinking economies of Portugal, Greece, Spain and Italy that the Republicans in the US need to learn quickly: cutting government spending results in massive unemployment, cutbacks in crucial public services, runaway stagflation and even heavier entitlement costs.
028
Fortune Global Forum 2023
Tuesday, November 28th, 2023
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
15:10–15:25
FUTURE-PROOFING GLOBAL REAL ESTATE
At an estimated value of more than $300 trillion, land and real estate remains the world’s most valuable asset class and yet it is also the most exposed to climate change and demographic decline. How can businesses harness data to track trends in migration, climate change, and finance to know which locations will provide both resilience and profit in the future? We’ll take a closer look at how AI can be an essential tool in navigating both the headwinds of high interest rates, stagflation, aging demographics and climate risk and the tailwinds of growing demands for food and energy and new patterns of mass migration.
Presenter: Dr. Parag Khanna, Founder and CEO, Climate Alpha
Photograph by Katarina Premfors/Fortune
Stagflation on KeyboardPlease feel free to use this image that I've created on your website or blog. If you do, I'd greatly appreciate a link back to my blog as the source: CreditDebitPro.com
Example: Photo by CreditDebitPro
Thanks!
Mike Lawrence
Alice Cooper's "real life" story of being in a New York sanitarium. Issued in 1978, after 2 years of wear and tear from the Carter Administration. Front cover opened to show scene of the blow lunch kooks Alice met while "inside". Back cover also opened to show escape attempt.
Saw Alice at the Greek Theater in Hollywood in 1980. It was a cold damp evening and Alice's snake refused to perform, My companion at the show later served time in solitary in a federal prison on felony charges.