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www.fastcoexist.com/1681873/twitter-can-predict-the-stock...
Twitter Can Predict The Stock Market, If You’re Reading The Right Tweets
In a world where one tweet can send Wall Street into a panic, social analytics company Dataminr tries to be there first, scanning all of Twitter to find individual messages with the right combination of language, context, and location that might end up being breaking--and money-making--news.
Earlier this week, the Associated Press Twitter account posted the following--false--message: "BREAKING: Two Explosions in the White House and Barack Obama is injured." It didn’t take long for other sources to demonstrate that the president was fine and the AP account hacked, but it was long enough for the stock markets to take a nose dive. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes fropped by close to 1%, the equivalent of hundreds of billions of dollars changing hands.
The incident may prove that Twitter needs better security and algorithmic traders need better quality control, but it’s also evidence of something simpler: News impacts financial markets, and that news is increasingly breaking on Twitter. Dataminr--a social analytics company with clients in finance, government and the larger corporate world--takes this dynamic one step further. They use Twitter to beat the news. “It’s the lack of someone who is a news commentator or a news source saying it,” says Dataminr founder and CEO Peter Bailey. “The point is the things that aren’t there.”
“We look at every user across Twitter and understand everything that they’ve published and their relative influence on any topic.”
Dataminr can find market-moving information not yet in the news because they aren’t limited to following some manageable group of friends or trusted accounts. They have access to the entire “Firehose” of Twitter’s approximately 200 million active users, and they use it. “We look at every user across Twitter and understand everything that they’ve published and their relative influence on any topic that we know and their local influence,” Bailey says.
The “we” that looks at that deluge of data isn’t Dataminr’s approximately 35 employees; It’s their algorithms. To understand how they work, it helps to have an example.
On March 8, a Royal Caribbean cruise ship arrived in Port Everglades, Florida with 105 passengers and three crew members sick with norovirus. When that news broke, it sent Royal Carribean Cruises Ltd. Share prices tumbling by 2.9%. But Dataminr clients had the news 48 minutes earlier.
The tweet that tipped them off came at 1:00 p.m., from South Florida news channel WSVN: "“Royal Caribbean’s Vision of the Seas cruise ship has pulled into Port Everglades after an outbreak of norovirus on board.” Dataminr’s algorithm found that tweet, and not by searching for "norovirus" or "Royal Caribbean." ”We detected a slight blip, linguistically,” Bailey tells me, again using “we” to denote the software. “And we saw that the source who published it was one that had local influence.”
“How much context can you possibly put around a tweet?”
The algorithm found that words within the tweet had some resemblance to tweets in the past that had turned out to be newsworthy, and that there was a clear immediate reaction to the tweet, though it had not yet rippled out to national news sources and market commentators.
All of these algorithmic calculations were made with great speed. At 1:02 p.m., only two minutes after the original tweet, relevant Dataminr clients got an email and an alert started flashing in the bottom corner of the screens. It provided not just the WSVN tweet, but an analysis of why it was important. “It’s like, ‘How much context can you possibly put around a tweet?’” said Bailey.
As for what clients did with this early information, Bailey says he is "contractually confined" from giving details. But Dataminr said at least one client told them directly that the alert save their firm money. Dataminr has always declined to name their clients in the press, but in a presentation at the 2011 Devnest meet-up, they did say that their clients included “three of the top five bulge-bracket investment banks, as well as a leading $15 billion equities hedge fund.”
In the case of Royal Caribbean, traders knowing market-moving news 48 minutes in advance probably meant a big one-time payday. But Dataminr also has government clients--they’re currently hiring three government-focused employees. It’s easy to understand state interest in Twitter intelligence in an age where "Twitter Revolution" recurs in headlines every few months. Just as financial clients use intelligence to further their bottom lines, we can only assume that Dataminr’s clients in the government will be putting the Twitter "Firehose" to work for their own goals, at home and abroad.
Close up of volume control showing various leads and passive components .
Note the connections like the resistor leads are mechanicaly sound (ie wrapped around the tags) then soldered.
Quality.
The Hacker, Michel Amato from Goodlife Records visits the Things to Come Records studio in Berlin, Germany.
I picked this guy up at a garage sale for $1.00 and decided to finally bring him back to life; here I've hooked him up to an older ATX computer power supply to supply the ~5V, instead of wasting 4x 1.5V AA batteries. I also have an iDog in many pieces (somewhere on my desk) awaiting this hack.
When I connected his positive lead with the alligator clip it gave a little spark and a quick jolt to life! (dirty connection)
Note: using these 20 (or 24) pin ATX power supplies, you have to ground the green wire to switch-on the internal relay and complete the circuit. Thus, the fan kicks on, and all the leads supply power to the hard drives, etc. I didn't have an AT power supply on hand with the simpler on/off switch. In storage I have a few, however.
Hack.Art.Lab collaborators Ann Resnick, Kristin Beal-DeGrandmont, John Harrison, Ivy Lanning, Lauren Hirsh, and Tom McGuire
I made this small plant shelf with the 1/2 sandnes cabinet left from the livingroom project. It required a small support/hanging strip for inside stability (I used a 1x2) which I attached to both sides and used to hang the cabinet from the wall, it also required a piece of wood for the top. I switched out the original handles that came with it for bin pulls from ikea and I may paint the whole thing white. I haven't decided. It is the perfect size for plants and provides a little extra storage in the bedroom without taking up space.
I think that these would be a great solution in any narrow space (bathroom to hold hair dryer? other times?) It wouldn't make good financial sense to buy a sandnes JUST to hack it for a half/sandnes, but if you are altering one to use in a specific space, the remaining piece (like here) is very useful.
The Paulaner & Hacker-Pschorr brewery in Munich at the Nockherberg.
Those copper brewing kettles are still in use. There were about ten of them in this room, one next to another. It was so warm.
And it smelled awesome!
Appin (Scottish Gaelic: An Apainn) is a remote coastal district of the Scottish West Highlands bounded to the west by Loch Linnhe, to the south by Loch Creran, to the east by the districts of Benderloch and Lorne, and to the north by Loch Leven. It lies north-east to south-west, and measures 14 miles (23 km) in length by 7 miles (11 km) in breadth. The district is mainly in Argyll and Bute, with a coastal strip to the north, along Loch Leven, within the Highland council area.
For most, hacking symbolizes breach of space exclusive to one’s self. Some even brand these hackers as terrorists who roam the digital world. But there are always two sides to a coin.
Hacking Arts (October 3-5), an annual student-run festival and hackathon hosted at the MIT Media Lab, marked the launch of MIT STARTUP. Hacking Arts features talks by entrepreneurs in the creative industries, tech-enabled live performances and art pieces, and demos by emergent start-ups. This year’s kick-off party at Microsoft’s Nerd Center featured a performance by Grammy-nominated artist Ryan Leslie and an ideation session by Kiran Gandhi, the drummer of MIA.
The following day, participants attended panels on Film, Music, Design, Virtual Reality, Fashion, Gaming, Performing Arts and Visual Arts, hearing from speakers such as Benji Rogers (CEO, Pledgemusic), Kevin Cunningham (Executive Artistic Director, 3-Legged Dog Productions) and Laird Malamed (COO, Oculus VR). Afterward, participants put their ideas into action during the high-voltage hackathon.
The 2014 Hackathon winners were LuxLoop (VHX Prize in Film, TV & VR), Harlequin (Most Creative), CUE (Most Disruptive) and Tomorrow Is Another Day (Best Overall Hack). A common thread among the winning hacks was how technology was used to promote human interaction or create analogue output. LuxLoop and Harlequin both used human motion to affect digital output. CUE, one of the finalists in the Pitch phase of the competition, designed a modular theatrical system consisting of wearable audiovisual hardware and a smartphone app to sequence, control and play user-programmed sound and light effects to enhance public theater. Tomorrow Is Another Day touted the idea “Turn your nothing into something,” as their project used a person’s daily “swipes” on touch-screen devices to transform daily online activities into abstract ink drawings.
Photo by Andrew Kubica
www.stayfocusedphotography.net/
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