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47635 'Jimmy Milne', an Inverness machine, so very far away from home seen leaving Taunton with a York to Exeter relief service on Thursday 13th August 1987. 91-24.
A c**p shot but posted purely for historical value!
www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/we-will-definitely-see-a-co...
We will definitely see a 'consumption rebound' in China, says MSA Capital's Ben Harburg
Ben Harburg, MSA Capital managing partner, joins 'Tech Check' to break down his thoughts on value in China tech, consumption rebound
www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-business-activity-shri...
US Business Activity Shrinks for a Seventh Month, Prices Rise
(Bloomberg) -- US business activity contracted for a seventh month, though at a more moderate pace, while a measure of input prices firmed in a sign of lingering inflationary pressures.
The S&P Global flash January composite purchasing managers index rose 1.6 points to 46.6, the group reported Tuesday. Readings below 50 indicate falling activity. The gauge of input prices climbed for the first time since May.
While the improvement in the composite measure of output at factories and services providers was the first in four months and points to a slower rate of deterioration, the gain in the price index indicates businesses are still contending with rising costs for labor and some materials.
The Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to bring down inflation are beginning to spread across the economy, with higher borrowing costs helping to restrain demand. The S&P Global composite data showed a fourth-straight month of shrinking orders.
“Companies cite concerns over the ongoing impact of high prices and rising interest rates, as well as lingering worries over supply and labor shortages,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement.
“The worry is that, not only has the survey indicated a downturn in economic activity at the start of the year, but the rate of input cost inflation has accelerated into the new year, linked in part to upward wage pressures, which could encourage a further aggressive tightening of Fed policy despite rising recession risks,” Williamson said.
The US figures stand in contrast to the euro area, where S&P Global data showed an unexpected return to growth and added to evidence the region may avoid a recession.
The group’s measure of business activity at US service providers contracted for a seventh month. The gauge of new business continued to shrink, though it climbed to a three-month high in a sign demand is stabilizing, albeit at a depressed level.
Manufacturing activity shrank for a third month and remains near the weakest since May 2020. The factory employment gauge dropped below 50 for the first time since July 2020, while measures of production and orders both shrank - though they improved slightly from the end of 2022.
In addition to the firming of input prices, the composite prices-received gauge held steady and continued to show growth. It marked the first time since April that the measure failed to cool.
On a more encouraging note, output expectations for the next six months rose to the highest since September, indicating companies are more sanguine about the outlook for demand.
www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-u-s-economy-is-screwe...
The U.S. Economy Is Screwed Whether Inflation Slows Or Not
Story by David Dierking
Also, emerging markets are one of the hottest opportunities in the market right now.
The financial markets - both stocks and bonds - have gotten off to a fast start in 2023. The S&P 500 (SPY) is up 3-4%, while small-caps (IWM) and long-term Treasuries (TLT) have gained 6%. Call this the January effect or whatever you want, but there’s an unquestioned sense of optimism right now that isn’t yet fully supported by the data.
If you look at retail sales, industrial production or housing starts, you’d conclude that the U.S. economy is decelerating at an even faster rate than before, possibly into that highly anticipated recession around the end of the year.
But then there’s the counterargument. Inflation is also slowing even faster than expected. If you look at the 6-month annualized rate on headline inflation, we’re already back around the 2% Fed target level.
That probably means we’re looking at another quarter-point hike or two in Q1 and then the Fed will be done. Whether the Fed will be able to keep the Fed Funds rate as high as it wants to in 2023 is a point of much debate (for the record, I think they will but I’m in the minority).
Setting aside market reactions aside for a moment, it’s important to consider what inflation means right now. Sure, the numbers are trending in the right direction and that’s certainly welcome news for consumers, but is it as good as sentiment suggests it is.
Probably not and here’s why.
There are three potential outcomes here.
Inflation Remains Elevated
Investors aren’t anticipating a resurgence in inflation, but they shouldn’t write it off altogether. A Fed Funds rate of around 5% and the China reopening should both keep disinflationary pressure on the economy throughout 2023, but what about beyond that?
In the 1970s, inflation got above 12% in 1974 before retreating to below 5% by 1976. It didn’t last though. By 1979, inflation was above 13% again and stayed above 9% for the next three years. A second round of hyperinflation isn’t out of the question, but the Fed is probably in a better position now to keep things under control through high rates and QT. As long as they aren’t late to react like they were in 2021.
This is perhaps the worst case outcome. Consumers are already in a tight spot, especially the lower/middle class and a second round of high inflation might cause not just a deep recession, but possibly something resembling a depression.
Inflation Gets Back To The Fed’s Target Level
From an optics standpoint, this is the ideal outcome, but it doesn’t come without consequences.
Let’s imagine that the year-over-year inflation rate at some point in the near future goes to 0%. Great, right? All of those soaring price pressures on everything from gas to groceries to healthcare costs to airline tickets becomes a thing of the past, right?
Not really. A 0% inflation rate merely means that all of the inflation from 2022 has stuck. A 0% inflation doesn’t mean that conditions have gone back to the pre-2022 days. It means we’re still effectively in the 2022 days.
Credit card usage and savings rates prove that a lot of households are still really struggling just to pay the bills, let alone spend on discretionary items. A 0% inflation rate means that those families are still dealing with high price pressures that they did last year. The only advantage is that they’re not climbing even higher. In this scenario, they’re essentially still in the same position of needing to tighten the budget and slow spending (although hopefully some form of wage increase helps offset some of that and real wages improve).
Inflation Turns Into Deflation
This is probably the most likely outcome and we’re already heading in that direction.
If a recession arrives, let’s say, in the next 12 months, that’s almost certainly going to put a deflationary squeeze on the economy. If households need to cut back on spending, demand goes down and prices soon follow. Production of goods slows and companies are also forced to cut prices. Demand for services also decreases.
This is Econ 101. As over-demand shifts to under-demand, prices follow. That means the focus on high inflation turns to deflation. If deflation sets in, that almost ensures that a recession is happening in the United States and probably elsewhere.
We’re not to deflation yet, but the wild card could be the China reopening. If it’s everything that economists and market hopefuls hope it is, we’re about to see an increased supply of everything China typically produces hit the market. That, in isolation, is deflationary. We’ve already seen retail businesses warn about high inventories. The China reopening may make it worse.
Conclusion
Pick your poison.
▪ Hyperinflation returns leading to recession/depression.
▪ Inflation moderates, financial markets likely see gains, but consumers remain squeezed.
▪ Inflation turns to deflation, recession becomes near-certainty.
None of these is a positive unless you’re an investor in scenario #2. Even in that scenario, we’re looking at a lack of growth from low consumer discretionary income.
The markets could be positioned for a short-term rally in both stocks and bonds as investors cheer falling inflation, China provides a growth catalyst and the Fed finally hits the pause button.
Longer-term, it might be a matter of picking the least bad outcome.
1) This image investigates value. The water goes from dark blue to light blue in the center.
2) The subject matter is the deep blue water and the texture in the walls around it.
3) I think that the water is visually striking in the way it fades from the light blue into the dark blue.
4) I don't believe that if i could re shoot this picture i would change it at all.
The Accelerated Value Chain Development (AVCD) Program National Conference was held at ILRI in Nairobi 26-27 April 2018 (photo credit: ILRI/Paul Karaimu).
Value City Furniture #106 (55,548 square feet)
1412 Greenbrier Parkway, Suite 100, Crossways Center, Chesapeake, VA
This location opened in the early 2000s; it was originally an Uptons, which opened in 1990 and closed on November 24th, 1999.
This shot is a depiction of the element Value, because of the many different shades of gray in the image which comes from the CN Tower reflected on the Delta building. It is a representation of urban landscape. The reflection on the Delta building really pull in the audience as it gives the image a modern look. Also if the angle the photo was taken at was a bit shifted the photo would look more filled and gorgeous.
Participants at the World Economic Forum on Africa 2013. Copyright by World Economic Forum / Benedikt von Loebell
This picture has light from outside of the underneath path of the stairs and shadow as well because of how the stairs cover the sky.
this is a strong example of vaule because the picture, being in black and white, causes the shadow, created by the light bulb, to be strong.
children's wear - floral project -
using wild flowers or 'weeds' with roses to create a personal, ironic concept.
inspired by the work of Tracey Bush..
'the average adult can recognise hundreds of brand logo's but less than 10 wild plants..'
upon reflection of childhood memories and how i was bought up, i began to think about how children today are being raised by their parents; do they have the same appreciation and connection with nature that was inprinted on me as a child?
Black & White photocopy of 'raise them on Robinsons' advertisement with
illustration cut-out of a little girl blowing a dandelion clock :)
No Nutritional Value
What could be more fun than gummies and whipped cream? I once worked with a guy whose hobby was photographing the expressive faces of gummy bears. He found diverse emotions in his snack. Only one manufacturer seemed to have this much detail (he told me). In this image I think you can see the bear on the summit of the whipped cream smiling. Wouldn't you?