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Gordon E. Moore, the Intel Co-Founder Behind Moore’s Law, Dies at 94
His prediction in the 1960s about exponential advances in computer chip technology charted a course for the age of high tech.
Image
Gordon E. Moore in 1990 at the Silicon Valley headquarters of Intel, which he founded in 1968 with Robert Noyce.
Gordon E. Moore in 1990 at the Silicon Valley headquarters of Intel, which he founded in 1968 with Robert Noyce. Credit...Alamy
By Holcomb B. Noble and Katie Hafner
March 24, 2023, 9:36 p.m. ET
6 MIN READ
Gordon E. Moore, a co-founder and former chairman of Intel Corporation, the California semiconductor chip maker that helped give Silicon Valley its name, achieving the kind of industrial dominance once held by the giant American railroad or steel companies of another age, died on Friday at his home in Hawaii. He was 94.
His death was confirmed by Intel and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. They did not provide a cause.
Along with a handful of colleagues, Mr. Moore could claim credit for bringing laptop computers to hundreds of millions of people and embedding microprocessors into everything from bathroom scales, toasters and toy fire engines to cellphones, cars and jets.
Mr. Moore, who had wanted to be a teacher but could not get a job in education and later called himself the Accidental Entrepreneur, became a billionaire as a result of an initial $500 investment in the fledgling microchip business, which turned electronics into one of the world’s largest industries.
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And it was he, his colleagues said, who saw the future. In 1965, in what became known as Moore’s Law, he predicted that the number of transistors that could be placed on a silicon chip would double at regular intervals for the foreseeable future, thus increasing the data-processing power of computers exponentially.
He added two corollaries later: The evolving technology would make computers more and more expensive to build, yet consumers would be charged less and less for them because so many would be sold. Moore’s Law held up for decades.
Through a combination of Mr. Moore’s brilliance, leadership, charisma and contacts, as well as that of his partner and Intel co-founder, Robert Noyce, the two assembled a group widely regarded by many as among the boldest and most creative technicians of the high-tech age.
This was the group that advocated the use of the thumbnail-thin chips of silicon, a highly polished, chemically treated sandy substance — one of the most common natural resources on earth — because of what turned out to be silicon’s amazing hospitality in housing smaller and smaller electronic circuitry that could work at higher and higher speeds.
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With its silicon microprocessors, the brains of a computer, Intel enabled American manufacturers in the mid-1980s to regain the lead in the vast computer data-processing field from their formidable Japanese competitors. By the ’90s, Intel had placed its microprocessors in 80 percent of the computers that were being made worldwide, becoming the most successful semiconductor company in history.
Much of his happened under Mr. Moore’s watch. He was chief executive from 1975 to 1987, when Andrew Grove succeeded him, and remained as chairman until 1997.
As his wealth grew, Mr. Moore also became a major figure in philanthropy. In 2001, he and his wife created the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation with a donation of 175 million Intel shares. In 2001, they donated $600 million to the California Institute of Technology, the largest single gift to an institution of higher learning at the time. The foundation’s assets currently exceed $8 billion and it has given away more than $5 billion since its founding.
In interviews, Mr. Moore was characteristically humble about his achievements, particularly the technical advances that Moore’s Law made possible.
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“What I could see was that semiconductor devices were the way electronics were going to become cheap. That was the message I was trying to get across,” he told the journalist Michael Malone in 2000. “It turned out to be an amazingly precise prediction — a lot more precise than I ever imagined it would be.”
Not only was Mr. Moore predicting that electronics would become much cheaper over time, as the industry shifted from away from discrete transistors and tubes to silicon microchips, but over the years his prediction proved so reliable that technology firms based their product strategy on the assumption that Moore’s Law would hold.
“Any business doing rational multiyear planning had to assume this rate of change or else get steamrolled,” said Harry Saal, a longtime Silicon Valley entrepreneur.
“That’s his legacy,” said Arthur Rock, an early investor in Intel and friend of Mr. Moore’s. “It’s not Intel. It’s not the Moore Foundation. It’s that phrase: Moore’s Law.”
Image
Mr. Moore during Intel’s early days. His prediction, a few years earlier, that the number of transistors that could be placed on a silicon chip would double at regular intervals became known as Moore’s Law.
Mr. Moore during Intel’s early days. His prediction, a few years earlier, that the number of transistors that could be placed on a silicon chip would double at regular intervals became known as Moore’s Law.Credit...Intel
Gordon Earl Moore was born on Jan. 3, 1929, in San Francisco. He grew up in Pescadero, a small coastal town south of San Francisco, where his father, Walter H. Moore, was deputy sheriff and the family of his mother, the former Florence Almira Williamson, ran the general store.
Mr. Moore enrolled at San Jose State College (now San José State University), where he met Betty Whitaker, a journalism student. They married in 1950. That year, he completed his undergraduate studies at the University of California, Berkeley, with a degree in chemistry. In 1954, he received his doctorate, also in chemistry, from the Caltech.
One of the first jobs he applied for was as a manager with Dow Chemical. “They sent me to a psychologist to see how this would fit,” Mr. Moore wrote in 1994. “The psychologist said I was OK technically but I’d never manage anything.”
So Mr. Moore took a position with the Applied Physics Laboratory at Johns Hopkins University in Maryland. Then, looking for a way back to California, he interviewed at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory in Livermore, Calif. He was offered a job, “but I decided I didn’t want to take spectra of exploding nuclear bombs, so I turned it down,” he wrote.
Instead, in 1956, Mr. Moore joined William Shockley, the inventor of the transistor, to work at a West Coast division of Bell Laboratories, a start-up unit whose aim was to make a cheap silicon transistor.
But the company, Shockley Semiconductor, foundered under Mr. Shockley, who had no experience running a company. In 1957, Mr. Moore and Mr. Noyce joined a group of defectors who came to be known as “the traitorous eight.” With each putting in $500, along with $1.3 million in backing from the aircraft pioneer Sherman Fairchild, the eight men left to form the Fairchild Semiconductor Corporation, which became a pioneer in manufacturing integrated circuits.
Bitten by the entrepreneurial bug, Mr. Moore and Mr. Noyce decided in 1968 to form their own company, focusing on semiconductor memory. They wrote what Mr. Moore described as a “very general” business plan.
“It said we were going to work with silicon … and make interesting products,” he said in an interview in 1994.
Their vague proposal notwithstanding, they had no trouble finding financial backing.
With $2.5 million in capital, Mr. Moore and Mr. Noyce called their start-up Integrated Electronics Corporation, and later shortened it to Intel. The third employee was Mr. Grove, a young Hungarian immigrant who had worked under Mr. Moore at Fairchild.
After some indecision around what technology to focus on, the three men settled on a new version of MOS — metal oxide semiconductor — technology called silicon-gate MOS. To improve a transistor’s speed and density, they used silicon instead of aluminum.
“Fortunately, very much by luck, we had hit on a technology that had just the right degree of difficulty for a successful start-up,” Mr. Moore wrote in 1994. “This was how Intel began.”
In the early 1970s, Intel’s 4000 series “computer on a chip” began the revolution in personal computers, although Intel itself missed the opportunity to manufacture a PC, which Mr. Moore blamed partly on his own shortsightedness.
“Long before Apple, one of our engineers came to me with the suggestion that Intel ought to build a computer for the home,” he wrote. “And I asked him, ‘What the heck would anyone want a computer for in his home?”
Image
Mr. Moore holding a silicon wafer in 2005. Silicon was a key to Intel’s success.
Mr. Moore holding a silicon wafer in 2005. Silicon was a key to Intel’s success.Credit...Paul Sakuma/Associated Press
Still, he saw the future. In 1963, while still at Fairchild as director of research and development, Mr. Moore contributed a book chapter describing what was to become the precursor to his eponymous law, without the explicit numerical prediction. Two years later, he published an article in Electronics, a widely circulated trade magazine, titled, “Cramming More Components Onto Integrated Circuits.”
“The article presented the same argument as the book chapter, with the addition of this explicitly numerical prediction,” said David Brock, a co-author of “Moore’s Law: The Life of Gordon Moore, Silicon Valley’s Quiet Revolutionary.”
There is little evidence that many people read the article when it was published, Mr. Brock said.
“He kept giving talks with these charts and plots, and people started using his slides and reproducing his graphs,” Mr. Brock said. “Then people saw the phenomenon happen. Silicon microchips got more complex, and their cost went down.”
In the 1960s, when Mr. Moore began in electronics, a single silicon transistor sold for $150. Later, $10 would buy more than 100 million transistors. Mr. Moore once wrote that if cars advanced as quickly as computers, “they would get 100,000 miles to the gallon and it would be cheaper to buy a Rolls-Royce than park it. (Cars would also be a half an inch long.)”
Mr. Moore’s survivors include his wife, and his sons Kenneth and Steven, as well as four grandchildren.
In 2014, Forbes estimated Mr. Moore’s net worth at $7 billion. Yet he remained unprepossessing throughout his life, preferring tattered shirts and khakis to tailored suits. He shopped at Costco and kept a collection of fly lures and fishing reels on his office desk.
Moore’s Law is bound to reach its end, as engineers encounter some basic physical limits, as well as the extreme cost of building factories to achieve the next level of miniaturization. And in recent years, the pace of miniaturization has slowed.
Mr. Moore himself commented from time to time on the inevitable end to Moore’s Law. “It can’t continue forever,” he said in a 2005 interview with Techworld magazine. “The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens.”
Holcomb B. Noble, a former science editor for The Times, died in 2017.
Katie Hafner, a former staff reporter for The New York Times, is a co-author of "Where Wizards Stay Up Late: The Origins of The Internet."
How The Times decides who gets an obituary. If you made news in life, chances are your death is news, too. There is no formula, scoring system or checklist. We investigate, research and ask around before settling on our subjects.
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The prediction: This is going to be an interesting year (4 years?)! Must refrain from walking under ladders, too!
Also foreseen, a large order of this new Instax Monochrome film. Fun stuff!
From my ongoing series: Homebound pinholes.
Le Bambole Mk. X - "The Pin-sta-nair" Pinhole Camera.
Fujifilm Instax Mini Monochrome Film.
Nostradamus was born in Saint Rémy de Provence, southern France, on December 14th of 1503, and he was a famous French physician, cabalist, and pharmacist, best known for his book Les Prophéties, its first edition published in 1555. Feel free to publish a summary of this article (in English or translated into another language) along with a link to the full piece www.yearly-horoscope.org/nostradamus-2021-predictions. Nostradamus’ prophecies are expressed in verses, called quatrains. Many of his predictions, such as the rise to power of Adolf Hitler, and the Second World War, turned out to be accurate. Feel free to publish a summary of this article (in English or translated into another language) along with a link to the full piece www.yearly-horoscope.org/nostradamus-2021-predictions
Nostradamus had written 6338 prophecies, many of them fulfilled. His prophecies cover a period reaching the year 3797. The secret of his predictions is not known. Nostradamus’ quatrains continue to fascinate the world, although they were written almost five centuries ago. Feel free to publish a summary of this article (in English or translated into another language) along with a link to the full piece www.yearly-horoscope.org/nostradamus-2021-predictions..
Here are some of Nostradamus’ predictions for 2021: 1. Zombie Apocalypse A Russian scientist will create a biological weapon and produce a virus that can turn humankind into zombies, and we will all be extinct in the near future. “Few young people: half−dead to give a start. Dead through spite, he will cause the others to shine, And in an exalted place some great evils to occur: Sad concepts will come to harm each one, Temporal dignified, the Mass to succeed. Fathers and mothers dead of infinite sorrows, Women in mourning, the pestilent she−monster: The Great One to be no more, all the world to end.” 2. A Famine of Biblical Proportions Nostradamus predicted that the first signs of the end of the world would be famine, earthquakes, different illnesses, and epidemics, which are already happening more frequently. The Coronavirus pandemic from 2020 represents the beginning of a series of unfavorable events, which will affect the world’s population. The famine that lurks is one the world had never faced before. A catastrophe of huge proportions will throw us back in history, and a great part of the world population will not be able to overcome this curse. “After great trouble for humanity, a greater one is prepared, The Great Mover renews the ages: Rain, blood, milk, famine, steel, and plague, Is the heavens fire seen, a long spark running.” Starting from 2020, after 248 years, Saturn in Capricorn united its forces with Pluto, which is also in Capricorn, in the remarkable conjunction that will change the fate of the world. Saturn in Capricorn is responsible for social hierarchies, state power, authority, functions, and status, and this is what the conjunction with Pluto, the planet of death, destruction, and reconstruction triggered. 3. Solar Storms 2021 will be quite a significant year in terms of major global events. Great solar storms will take place, which could cause some major damages to the earth. Nostradamus supposedly warned: „We shall see the water rising and the earth falling under it”. The harmful effects of the climatic changes will then lead to many wars and conflicts, as the world will fight over resources, and mass migration will follow. 4. A Comet will hit the Earth or it will come very close to Terra This event will cause earthquakes and other natural disasters, which can be concluded from the quatrain: “In the sky, one sees fire and a long trail of sparks”. Other interpretations of this quatrain assert that it refers to a great asteroid that will hit the Earth. Once it enters the Earth’s atmosphere, the asteroid will heat up, appearing in the sky like a great fire. NASA announced that a huge asteroid is likely to hit the Earth in the next years after the American agency emits alerts daily, only this time, it is something more serious. An asteroid called 2009 KF1 has chances to hit the Earth on May 6th of 2021, the NASA coming to this conclusion, following analyzes regarding its trajectory. NASA claims that this asteroid has the power to hit the Earth with the equivalent of 230 kilotons of TNT explosive force, which means 15 times more than the nuclear bomb detonated by Americans over Hiroshima in 1945. 5. A Devastating Earthquake Will Destroy California According to the interpretation of a quatrain written by Nostradamus, an extremely powerful seism will destroy California in 2021. Nostradamus predicts that a great earthquake will hit the New World (“the western lands”), and California is the logical place where it might happen. According to the astrologers, “Mercury in Sagittarius, Saturn fading”, the following date when the planets Mars and Saturn will be in this position on the sky will be on November 25th of 2021. Nostradamus’ quatrain: “The sloping park, great calamity, Through the Lands of the West and Lombardy The fire in the ship, plague, and captivity; Mercury in Sagittarius, Saturn fading.” 6. The American Soldiers Will Have Brain Chip Implants The American soldiers will be turned into a kind of cyborgs, at least at the brain level, to save the human race. This chip should offer us the necessary digital intelligence to progress beyond the limits of biological intelligence. This could mean that we will incorporate artificial intelligence into our bodies and brains. The newly made one will lead the army, Almost cut off up to near the bank: Help from the Milanais elite straining, The Duke deprived of his eyes in Milan in an iron cage.
Conclusions: “A prophet is properly speaking one, who sees distant things through a natural knowledge of all creatures. And it can happen that the prophet bringing about the perfect light of prophecy may make manifest things both human and divine.” (Nostradamus in a letter to his son, Cesar) Nostradamus’ quatrains include many disturbing predictions. Based both on the knowledge of Nostradamus as a human being, and the dangerous era he lived, the eight prophecies of 2021 reveal fragments of what the alchemist predicted for our world.
Feel free to publish a summary of this article (in English or translated into another language) along with a link to the full piece www.yearly-horoscope.org/nostradamus-2021-predictions/
By watching aspects such as climate changes, technological evolution, or inadequate governmental decisions, we might think that everything is against us, and humankind is on the verge of extinction. Here are just a few of Nostradamus’ predictions, outlining the idea of a terrifying future, far from what we would have imagined.
Feel free to publish a summary of this article (in English or translated into another language) along with a link to the full piece wisehoroscope.org/nostradamus-2021/.ficial Intelligence – The Robots will rule the world From 2021, artificial intelligence will be equal or will even surpass human intelligence, which could lead to an apocalyptic scenario like those we see in movies. “The Moon in the full of night over the high mountain, The new sage with a lone brain sees it: By his disciples invited to be immortal, Eyes to the south. Hands in bosoms, bodies in the fire.” Mechanization Most previsions indicate that until 2023, the labor market will crash. The automated machines will replace the people in the work process, since they don’t demand higher salaries, and they don’t need breaks or other benefits. When employers choose robots instead of humans, the whole social model will crush. Unemployment, social disorders, and misery are just a few of the consequences of mechanization. A War between Two Allied Countries Two allied countries will get into a classic and open military conflict, with naval fleet fully engaged against each other. Unfortunately, this will only be the beginning because this conflict between these two seemingly “friendly” countries will degenerate into a global war, which will involve the most powerful countries in the world. “In the city of God there will be a great thunder Two brothers torn apart by Chaos while the fortress endures The great leader will succumb The third big war will begin when the big city is burning”. The Economic Collapse of 2021 Hundreds of closed hedge funds will go bankrupt, and the international exchange market will need to close in a short time – maybe even for a week, to stop the panic of selling shares, that will slowly envelop the stock markets. Nostradamus also predicted the 2008 crisis, and in 2021, things are not great: the exchange markets are in free fall and have reached panic levels the end of the crisis is still out of sight the United States is facing an economic stagnation for several years the economic fundamentals are no longer applying today. Space Flight will be Accessible to Common People In 2021, it will start a new era of space tourism. Common people will fly into space, being able to admire spectacular views of the Earth. Sea Level Rise There is no doubt: the climate is constantly changing. Out of all the apocalyptic scenarios which might come true, the sea level rise is the most dramatic. Presently, 50% of the world population lives in coastal areas. A prediction of a possible disaster can be seen by following the example of Newton City from Alaska, which, in less than five years, will be swallowed up by rising waters. The small community of 400 people will not be the only one affected. The current estimations suggest that Venice will be uninhabitable by 2100, and Los Angeles and Amsterdam will be abandoned five years later. “Peace and plenty for a long time the place will praise: Throughout his realm the fleur-de-lis deserted: Bodies dead by water, land one will bring there, Vainly awaiting the good fortune to be buried there.” Solar Eruptions The solar activity has been and still is a subject of interest for experts and not only. Because the sun will reach, in 2021, the peak of an 11-years cycle, known as the maximum solar, different theoreticians rushed to speculate in this regard. It is a fact that when a maximum solar occurs, much more intense solar explosions take place than the previous ones, but this does not translate into total chaos or natural catastrophe. Solar eruptions don’t just happen from yesterday but occur at regular intervals, and the event taking place in 2021 could mostly announce satellite communication interruptions. “Condom and Auch and around Mirande, I see fire from the sky which encompasses them. Sun and Mars conjoined in Leo, then at Marmande, lightning, great hail, a wall falls into the Garonne.” How many predictions did Nostradamus get right? A part of Nostradamus’s prophecies, the famous French doctor and alchemist from the 16th century, have come true. Nostradamus predicted the beginning of the Second World War, Hitler’s ascension, the fall of communism, President J. F. Kennedy’s assassination, India’s independence and the occurrence of Israel State on the world map, events confirmed by the passing of time, but also occurrences that go further in time. Read also: Horoscope 2021 for every zodiac sign. Things You Might Not Know About Nostradamus Nostradamus is certainly one of the most illustrious personalities in history. This notoriety is due to his famous prophecies and predictions. Beyond astrology, Nostradamus was a talented doctor, but also a controversial character, specialized in occultism. Everyone has heard of Nostradamus. He was a medieval character, renowned for his capacity to predict, through scientific methods, the events that will happen in the distant future. Nostradamus predictions, written around 500 years ago, are still going around the world today, and the French man is one of the most important figures of occult art. Besides astrology and his predictions regarding the future, Nostradamus had an adventurous love life, marked by long journeys, extrasensory experiences, the run from Inquisition, but also by an exceptional, yet unjustly less-mentioned medical career. Nostradamus aroused admiration, but also envy. Moreover, he was a controversial character. Nostradamus confessed that his predictions have a scientific fundament. He claimed that he managed to predict the future by calculating the position of the stars and planets towards the earth and other astral bodies. How Nostradamus died Nostradamus even predicted his death: ‘Next to the bench and bed, I will be found dead’. After he announced, one evening, that he will not survive the night, he died of a gout episode and was found dead the following morning, next to his worktable
Feel free to publish a summary of this article (in English or translated into another language) along with a link to the full piece wisehoroscope.org/nostradamus-2021/
I think this would make a great saying for a fortune cookie.
May good things come your way, and sooner than you think.
If predictions are anything to go by , the temperature in the city is set to soar further.
However, in all the rising delirium of heat and North Indian summer, there are loveable treats to be found. Like Kulfi, the Indian subcontinent's milk-based sweet dense creamy answer to frozen desserts as ice-cream.
The Kulfiwala outside Moet's In Defense Colony which is one of the best in the city and where i found this piece of Kulfi last summer, is said to source the Kulfis he sells from Sitaram Bazaar in Old Delhi. Around 80% of the city's Kulfi business, it is reported , is controlled by four families in this Bazaar area.
The Kulfis are frozen in small earthen pots(matkas) or on a tilli( a stick) frozen in moulds usually stored in a mix of ice and salt. They are either served in the same matka or demolded often over a bed of sweet vermicelli(rice noodles).
Gordon E. Moore, the Intel Co-Founder Behind Moore’s Law, Dies at 94
His prediction in the 1960s about exponential advances in computer chip technology charted a course for the age of high tech.
Image
Gordon E. Moore in 1990 at the Silicon Valley headquarters of Intel, which he founded in 1968 with Robert Noyce. Credit...Alamy
By Holcomb B. Noble and Katie Hafner
March 24, 2023, 9:36 p.m. ET
6 MIN READ
Gordon E. Moore, a co-founder and former chairman of Intel Corporation, the California semiconductor chip maker that helped give Silicon Valley its name, achieving the kind of industrial dominance once held by the giant American railroad or steel companies of another age, died on Friday at his home in Hawaii. He was 94.
His death was confirmed by Intel and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. They did not provide a cause.
Along with a handful of colleagues, Mr. Moore could claim credit for bringing laptop computers to hundreds of millions of people and embedding microprocessors into everything from bathroom scales, toasters and toy fire engines to cellphones, cars and jets.
Mr. Moore, who had wanted to be a teacher but could not get a job in education and later called himself the Accidental Entrepreneur, became a billionaire as a result of an initial $500 investment in the fledgling microchip business, which turned electronics into one of the world’s largest industries.
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And it was he, his colleagues said, who saw the future. In 1965, in what became known as Moore’s Law, he predicted that the number of transistors that could be placed on a silicon chip would double at regular intervals for the foreseeable future, thus increasing the data-processing power of computers exponentially.
He added two corollaries later: The evolving technology would make computers more and more expensive to build, yet consumers would be charged less and less for them because so many would be sold. Moore’s Law held up for decades.
Through a combination of Mr. Moore’s brilliance, leadership, charisma and contacts, as well as that of his partner and Intel co-founder, Robert Noyce, the two assembled a group widely regarded by many as among the boldest and most creative technicians of the high-tech age.
This was the group that advocated the use of the thumbnail-thin chips of silicon, a highly polished, chemically treated sandy substance — one of the most common natural resources on earth — because of what turned out to be silicon’s amazing hospitality in housing smaller and smaller electronic circuitry that could work at higher and higher speeds.
Story continues below advertisement
With its silicon microprocessors, the brains of a computer, Intel enabled American manufacturers in the mid-1980s to regain the lead in the vast computer data-processing field from their formidable Japanese competitors. By the ’90s, Intel had placed its microprocessors in 80 percent of the computers that were being made worldwide, becoming the most successful semiconductor company in history.
Much of his happened under Mr. Moore’s watch. He was chief executive from 1975 to 1987, when Andrew Grove succeeded him, and remained as chairman until 1997.
As his wealth grew, Mr. Moore also became a major figure in philanthropy. In 2001, he and his wife created the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation with a donation of 175 million Intel shares. In 2001, they donated $600 million to the California Institute of Technology, the largest single gift to an institution of higher learning at the time. The foundation’s assets currently exceed $8 billion and it has given away more than $5 billion since its founding.
In interviews, Mr. Moore was characteristically humble about his achievements, particularly the technical advances that Moore’s Law made possible.
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“What I could see was that semiconductor devices were the way electronics were going to become cheap. That was the message I was trying to get across,” he told the journalist Michael Malone in 2000. “It turned out to be an amazingly precise prediction — a lot more precise than I ever imagined it would be.”
Not only was Mr. Moore predicting that electronics would become much cheaper over time, as the industry shifted from away from discrete transistors and tubes to silicon microchips, but over the years his prediction proved so reliable that technology firms based their product strategy on the assumption that Moore’s Law would hold.
“Any business doing rational multiyear planning had to assume this rate of change or else get steamrolled,” said Harry Saal, a longtime Silicon Valley entrepreneur.
“That’s his legacy,” said Arthur Rock, an early investor in Intel and friend of Mr. Moore’s. “It’s not Intel. It’s not the Moore Foundation. It’s that phrase: Moore’s Law.”
Image
Mr. Moore during Intel’s early days. His prediction, a few years earlier, that the number of transistors that could be placed on a silicon chip would double at regular intervals became known as Moore’s Law.
Mr. Moore during Intel’s early days. His prediction, a few years earlier, that the number of transistors that could be placed on a silicon chip would double at regular intervals became known as Moore’s Law.Credit...Intel
Gordon Earl Moore was born on Jan. 3, 1929, in San Francisco. He grew up in Pescadero, a small coastal town south of San Francisco, where his father, Walter H. Moore, was deputy sheriff and the family of his mother, the former Florence Almira Williamson, ran the general store.
Mr. Moore enrolled at San Jose State College (now San José State University), where he met Betty Whitaker, a journalism student. They married in 1950. That year, he completed his undergraduate studies at the University of California, Berkeley, with a degree in chemistry. In 1954, he received his doctorate, also in chemistry, from the Caltech.
One of the first jobs he applied for was as a manager with Dow Chemical. “They sent me to a psychologist to see how this would fit,” Mr. Moore wrote in 1994. “The psychologist said I was OK technically but I’d never manage anything.”
So Mr. Moore took a position with the Applied Physics Laboratory at Johns Hopkins University in Maryland. Then, looking for a way back to California, he interviewed at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory in Livermore, Calif. He was offered a job, “but I decided I didn’t want to take spectra of exploding nuclear bombs, so I turned it down,” he wrote.
Instead, in 1956, Mr. Moore joined William Shockley, the inventor of the transistor, to work at a West Coast division of Bell Laboratories, a start-up unit whose aim was to make a cheap silicon transistor.
But the company, Shockley Semiconductor, foundered under Mr. Shockley, who had no experience running a company. In 1957, Mr. Moore and Mr. Noyce joined a group of defectors who came to be known as “the traitorous eight.” With each putting in $500, along with $1.3 million in backing from the aircraft pioneer Sherman Fairchild, the eight men left to form the Fairchild Semiconductor Corporation, which became a pioneer in manufacturing integrated circuits.
Bitten by the entrepreneurial bug, Mr. Moore and Mr. Noyce decided in 1968 to form their own company, focusing on semiconductor memory. They wrote what Mr. Moore described as a “very general” business plan.
“It said we were going to work with silicon … and make interesting products,” he said in an interview in 1994.
Their vague proposal notwithstanding, they had no trouble finding financial backing.
With $2.5 million in capital, Mr. Moore and Mr. Noyce called their start-up Integrated Electronics Corporation, and later shortened it to Intel. The third employee was Mr. Grove, a young Hungarian immigrant who had worked under Mr. Moore at Fairchild.
After some indecision around what technology to focus on, the three men settled on a new version of MOS — metal oxide semiconductor — technology called silicon-gate MOS. To improve a transistor’s speed and density, they used silicon instead of aluminum.
“Fortunately, very much by luck, we had hit on a technology that had just the right degree of difficulty for a successful start-up,” Mr. Moore wrote in 1994. “This was how Intel began.”
In the early 1970s, Intel’s 4000 series “computer on a chip” began the revolution in personal computers, although Intel itself missed the opportunity to manufacture a PC, which Mr. Moore blamed partly on his own shortsightedness.
“Long before Apple, one of our engineers came to me with the suggestion that Intel ought to build a computer for the home,” he wrote. “And I asked him, ‘What the heck would anyone want a computer for in his home?”
Image
Mr. Moore holding a silicon wafer in 2005. Silicon was a key to Intel’s success.
Mr. Moore holding a silicon wafer in 2005. Silicon was a key to Intel’s success.Credit...Paul Sakuma/Associated Press
Still, he saw the future. In 1963, while still at Fairchild as director of research and development, Mr. Moore contributed a book chapter describing what was to become the precursor to his eponymous law, without the explicit numerical prediction. Two years later, he published an article in Electronics, a widely circulated trade magazine, titled, “Cramming More Components Onto Integrated Circuits.”
“The article presented the same argument as the book chapter, with the addition of this explicitly numerical prediction,” said David Brock, a co-author of “Moore’s Law: The Life of Gordon Moore, Silicon Valley’s Quiet Revolutionary.”
There is little evidence that many people read the article when it was published, Mr. Brock said.
“He kept giving talks with these charts and plots, and people started using his slides and reproducing his graphs,” Mr. Brock said. “Then people saw the phenomenon happen. Silicon microchips got more complex, and their cost went down.”
In the 1960s, when Mr. Moore began in electronics, a single silicon transistor sold for $150. Later, $10 would buy more than 100 million transistors. Mr. Moore once wrote that if cars advanced as quickly as computers, “they would get 100,000 miles to the gallon and it would be cheaper to buy a Rolls-Royce than park it. (Cars would also be a half an inch long.)”
Mr. Moore’s survivors include his wife, and his sons Kenneth and Steven, as well as four grandchildren.
In 2014, Forbes estimated Mr. Moore’s net worth at $7 billion. Yet he remained unprepossessing throughout his life, preferring tattered shirts and khakis to tailored suits. He shopped at Costco and kept a collection of fly lures and fishing reels on his office desk.
Moore’s Law is bound to reach its end, as engineers encounter some basic physical limits, as well as the extreme cost of building factories to achieve the next level of miniaturization. And in recent years, the pace of miniaturization has slowed.
Mr. Moore himself commented from time to time on the inevitable end to Moore’s Law. “It can’t continue forever,” he said in a 2005 interview with Techworld magazine. “The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens.”
Holcomb B. Noble, a former science editor for The Times, died in 2017.
Katie Hafner, a former staff reporter for The New York Times, is a co-author of "Where Wizards Stay Up Late: The Origins of The Internet."
How The Times decides who gets an obituary. If you made news in life, chances are your death is news, too. There is no formula, scoring system or checklist. We investigate, research and ask around before settling on our subjects.
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This gallery depicts a series of futuristic pictures by the French painter Jean-Marc Côté and other artists issued in 1899, 1900, 1901 and 1910. Originally in the form of paper cards enclosed in cigarette/cigar boxes and, later, as postcards, the images described the world as it was imagined to be like in the then distant year of 2000.
At least 87 were produced, and I have managed to capture 73 of them 😊. While a few were on point (A version of Skype or Facetime), many were wildly off-tangent (underwater croquet, anyone?). And all are definitely worth a look!
Sources: All images are in the public domain; Most were obtained from gallica.bnf.fr/
, although I had to edit a few to render them in higher resolution.
Spiritual Unite Articles, a place to find your pleiadian, sirian, arcturian starseed, spiritual awakening and numerology predictions.Nostradamus: original portrait like a pleiadian-starseed in The Starry Night from Vincent Van Gogh an other pleiadian guy....
Born14 or 21 December 1503 (Julian calendar)
Saint-Rémy-de-Provence, Provence, Kingdom of France
Michel de Nostredame (depending on the source, 14 or 21 December 1503 – 1 or 2 July 1566), usually Latinised as Nostradamus,[a] was a French astrologer, physician and reputed seer, who is best known for his book Les Prophéties, a collection of 942 poetic quatrains[b] allegedly predicting future events. The book was first published in 1555.
Nostradamus's family was originally Jewish, but had converted to Catholic Christianity before he was born. He studied at the University of Avignon, but was forced to leave after just over a year when the university closed due to an outbreak of the plague. He worked as an apothecary for several years before entering the University of Montpellier, hoping to earn a doctorate, but was almost immediately expelled after his work as an apothecary (a manual trade forbidden by university statutes) was discovered. He first married in 1531, but his wife and two children died in 1534 during another plague outbreak. He fought alongside doctors against the plague before remarrying to Anne Ponsarde, with whom he had six children. He wrote an almanac for 1550 and, as a result of its success, continued writing them for future years as he began working as an astrologer for various wealthy patrons. Catherine de' Medici became one of his foremost supporters. His Les Prophéties, published in 1555, relied heavily on historical and literary precedent, and initially received mixed reception. He suffered from severe gout toward the end of his life, which eventually developed into edema. He died on 2 July 1566. Many popular authors have retold apocryphal legends about his life.
In the years since the publication of his Les Prophéties, Nostradamus has attracted many supporters, who, along with much of the popular press, credit him with having accurately predicted many major world events.[6][7] Most academic sources reject the notion that Nostradamus had any genuine supernatural prophetic abilities and maintain that the associations made between world events and Nostradamus's quatrains are the result of misinterpretations or mistranslations (sometimes deliberate).[8] These academics argue that Nostradamus's predictions are characteristically vague, meaning they could be applied to virtually anything, and are useless for determining whether their author had any real prophetic powers. They also point out that English translations of his quatrains are almost always of extremely poor quality, based on later manuscripts, produced by authors with little knowledge of sixteenth-century French, and often deliberately mistranslated to make the prophecies fit whatever events the translator believed they were supposed to have predicted.
Contents
1Life
1.1Childhood
1.2Student years
1.3Marriage and healing work
1.4Occultism
1.5Final years and death
2Works
3Origins of The Prophecies
4Interpretations
4.1Content of the quatrains
4.2Popular claims
4.3Scholarly rebuttal
5In popular culture
6See also
7Notes
8References
8.1Citations
8.2Sources
9Further reading
10External links
Life[edit]
Childhood[edit]
Nostradamus's claimed birthplace before its recent renovation, Saint-Rémy-de-Provence
Municipal plaque on the claimed birthplace of Nostradamus in St-Rémy, France, describing him as an 'astrologer' and giving his birth-date as 14 December 1503 (Julian Calendar)
Nostradamus was born on either 14 or 21 December 1503 in Saint-Rémy-de-Provence, Provence, France,[9] where his claimed birthplace still exists, and baptized Michel.[9] He was one of at least nine children of notary Jaume (or Jacques) de Nostredame and Reynière, granddaughter of Pierre de Saint-Rémy who worked as a physician in Saint-Rémy.[9] Jaume's family had originally been Jewish, but his father, Cresquas, a grain and money dealer based in Avignon, had converted to Catholicism around 1459–60, taking the Christian name "Pierre" and the surname "Nostredame" (Our Lady), the saint on whose day his conversion was solemnised.[9] The earliest ancestor who can be identified on the paternal side is Astruge of Carcassonne, who died about 1420. Michel's known siblings included Delphine, Jean (c. 1507–1577), Pierre, Hector, Louis, Bertrand, Jean II (born 1522) and Antoine (born 1523).[10][11][12] Little else is known about his childhood, although there is a persistent tradition that he was educated by his maternal great-grandfather Jean de St. Rémy[13]—a tradition which is somewhat undermined by the fact that the latter disappears from the historical record after 1504 when the child was only one year old.[14]
Student years[edit]
At the age of 14[6] Nostradamus entered the University of Avignon to study for his baccalaureate. After little more than a year (when he would have studied the regular trivium of grammar, rhetoric and logic rather than the later quadrivium of geometry, arithmetic, music, and astronomy/astrology), he was forced to leave Avignon when the university closed its doors during an outbreak of the plague. After leaving Avignon, Nostradamus, by his own account, traveled the countryside for eight years from 1521 researching herbal remedies. In 1529, after some years as an apothecary, he entered the University of Montpellier to study for a doctorate in medicine. He was expelled shortly afterwards by the student procurator, Guillaume Rondelet, when it was discovered that he had been an apothecary, a "manual trade" expressly banned by the university statutes, and had been slandering doctors.[15] The expulsion document, BIU Montpellier, Register S 2 folio 87, still exists in the faculty library.[16] However, some of his publishers and correspondents would later call him "Doctor". After his expulsion, Nostradamus continued working, presumably still as an apothecary, and became famous for creating a "rose pill" that purportedly protected against the plague.[17]
Marriage and healing work[edit]
Nostradamus's house at Salon-de-Provence, as reconstructed after the 1909 Provence earthquake
In 1531 Nostradamus was invited by Jules-César Scaliger, a leading Renaissance scholar, to come to Agen.[18] There he married a woman of uncertain name (possibly Henriette d'Encausse), who bore him two children.[19] In 1534 his wife and children died, presumably from the plague. After their deaths, he continued to travel, passing through France and possibly Italy.[20]
On his return in 1545, he assisted the prominent physician Louis Serre in his fight against a major plague outbreak in Marseille, and then tackled further outbreaks of disease on his own in Salon-de-Provence and in the regional capital, Aix-en-Provence. Finally, in 1547, he settled in Salon-de-Provence in the house which exists today, where he married a rich widow named Anne Ponsarde, with whom he had six children—three daughters and three sons.[21] Between 1556 and 1567 he and his wife acquired a one-thirteenth share in a huge canal project, organised by Adam de Craponne, to create the Canal de Craponne to irrigate the largely waterless Salon-de-Provence and the nearby Désert de la Crau from the river Durance.[22]
Occultism[edit]
After another visit to Italy, Nostradamus began to move away from medicine and toward the "occult". Following popular trends, he wrote an almanac for 1550, for the first time in print Latinising his name to Nostradamus. He was so encouraged by the almanac's success that he decided to write one or more annually. Taken together, they are known to have contained at least 6,338 prophecies,[23][24] as well as at least eleven annual calendars, all of them starting on 1 January and not, as is sometimes supposed, in March. It was mainly in response to the almanacs that the nobility and other prominent persons from far away soon started asking for horoscopes and "psychic" advice from him, though he generally expected his clients to supply the birth charts on which these would be based, rather than calculating them himself as a professional astrologer would have done. When obliged to attempt this himself on the basis of the published tables of the day, he frequently made errors and failed to adjust the figures for his clients' place or time of birth.[25][26][c][27]
He then began his project of writing a book of one thousand mainly French quatrains, which constitute the largely undated prophecies for which he is most famous today. Feeling vulnerable to opposition on religious grounds,[28] however, he devised a method of obscuring his meaning by using "Virgilianised" syntax, word games and a mixture of other languages such as Greek, Italian, Latin, and Provençal.[29] For technical reasons connected with their publication in three installments (the publisher of the third and last installment seems to have been unwilling to start it in the middle of a "Century," or book of 100 verses), the last fifty-eight quatrains of the seventh "Century" have not survived in any extant edition.
Century I, Quatrain 1 in the 1555 Lyon Bonhomme edition
The quatrains, published in a book titled Les Prophéties (The Prophecies), received a mixed reaction when they were published. Some people thought Nostradamus was a servant of evil, a fake, or insane, while many of the elite evidently thought otherwise. Catherine de' Medici, wife of King Henry II of France, was one of Nostradamus's greatest admirers. After reading his almanacs for 1555, which hinted at unnamed threats to the royal family, she summoned him to Paris to explain them and to draw up horoscopes for her children. At the time, he feared that he would be beheaded,[30] but by the time of his death in 1566, Queen Catherine had made him Counselor and Physician-in-Ordinary to her son, the young King Charles IX of France.
Some accounts of Nostradamus's life state that he was afraid of being persecuted for heresy by the Inquisition, but neither prophecy nor astrology fell in this bracket, and he would have been in danger only if he had practised magic to support them. In 1538 he came into conflict with the Church in Agen after an Inquisitor visited the area looking for anti-Catholic views.[31] His brief imprisonment at Marignane in late 1561 was solely because he had violated a recent royal decree by publishing his 1562 almanac without the prior permission of a bishop.[32]
Final years and death[edit]
Nostradamus's current tomb in the Collégiale Saint-Laurent in Salon-de-Provence in the south of France, into which his scattered remains were transferred after 1789.
Nostradamus statue in Salon-de-Provence
By 1566, Nostradamus's gout, which had plagued him painfully for many years and made movement very difficult, turned into edema. In late June he summoned his lawyer to draw up an extensive will bequeathing his property plus 3,444 crowns (around US$300,000 today), minus a few debts, to his wife pending her remarriage, in trust for her sons pending their twenty-fifth birthdays and her daughters pending their marriages. This was followed by a much shorter codicil.[33] On the evening of 1 July, he is alleged to have told his secretary Jean de Chavigny, "You will not find me alive at sunrise." The next morning he was reportedly found dead, lying on the floor next to his bed and a bench (Presage 141 [originally 152] for November 1567, as posthumously edited by Chavigny to fit what happened).[34][24] He was buried in the local Franciscan chapel in Salon (part of it now incorporated into the restaurant La Brocherie) but re-interred during the French Revolution in the Collégiale Saint-Laurent, where his tomb remains to this day.[35]
Works[edit]
Copy of Garencières' 1672 English translation of the Prophecies, located in The P.I. Nixon Medical History Library of The University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio.
In The Prophecies Nostradamus compiled his collection of major, long-term predictions. The first installment was published in 1555 and contained 353 quatrains. The third edition, with three hundred new quatrains, was reportedly printed in 1558, but now survives as only part of the omnibus edition that was published after his death in 1568. This version contains one unrhymed and 941 rhymed quatrains, grouped into nine sets of 100 and one of 42, called "Centuries".
Given printing practices at the time (which included type-setting from dictation), no two editions turned out to be identical, and it is relatively rare to find even two copies that are exactly the same. Certainly there is no warrant for assuming—as would-be "code-breakers" are prone to do—that either the spellings or the punctuation of any edition are Nostradamus's originals.[5]
The Almanacs, by far the most popular of his works,[36] were published annually from 1550 until his death. He often published two or three in a year, entitled either Almanachs (detailed predictions), Prognostications or Presages (more generalised predictions).
Nostradamus was not only a diviner, but a professional healer. It is known that he wrote at least two books on medical science. One was an extremely free translation (or rather a paraphrase) of The Protreptic of Galen (Paraphrase de C. GALIEN, sus l'Exhortation de Menodote aux estudes des bonnes Artz, mesmement Medicine), and in his so-called Traité des fardemens (basically a medical cookbook containing, once again, materials borrowed mainly from others), he included a description of the methods he used to treat the plague, including bloodletting, none of which apparently worked.[37] The same book also describes the preparation of cosmetics.
A manuscript normally known as the Orus Apollo also exists in the Lyon municipal library, where upwards of 2,000 original documents relating to Nostradamus are stored under the aegis of Michel Chomarat. It is a purported translation of an ancient Greek work on Egyptian hieroglyphs based on later Latin versions, all of them unfortunately ignorant of the true meanings of the ancient Egyptian script, which was not correctly deciphered until Champollion in the 19th century.[38]
Since his death, only the Prophecies have continued to be popular, but in this case they have been quite extraordinarily so. Over two hundred editions of them have appeared in that time, together with over 2,000 commentaries. Their persistence in popular culture seems to be partly because their vagueness and lack of dating make it easy to quote them selectively after every major dramatic event and retrospectively claim them as "hits".[39]
Origins of The Prophecies[edit]
Theophilus de Garencières, the first English translator of the Prophecies[40]
Nostradamus claimed to base his published predictions on judicial astrology—the astrological 'judgment', or assessment, of the 'quality' (and thus potential) of events such as births, weddings, coronations etc.—but was heavily criticised by professional astrologers of the day such as Laurens Videl[41] for incompetence and for assuming that "comparative horoscopy" (the comparison of future planetary configurations with those accompanying known past events) could actually predict what would happen in the future.[42]
Research suggests that much of his prophetic work paraphrases collections of ancient end-of-the-world prophecies (mainly Bible-based), supplemented with references to historical events and anthologies of omen reports, and then projects those into the future in part with the aid of comparative horoscopy. Hence the many predictions involving ancient figures such as Sulla, Gaius Marius, Nero, and others, as well as his descriptions of "battles in the clouds" and "frogs falling from the sky".[43] Astrology itself is mentioned only twice in Nostradamus's Preface and 41 times in the Centuries themselves, but more frequently in his dedicatory Letter to King Henry II. In the last quatrain of his sixth century he specifically attacks astrologers.
His historical sources include easily identifiable passages from Livy, Suetonius' The Twelve Caesars, Plutarch and other classical historians, as well as from medieval chroniclers such as Geoffrey of Villehardouin and Jean Froissart. Many of his astrological references are taken almost word for word from Richard Roussat's Livre de l'estat et mutations des temps of 1549–50.
One of his major prophetic sources was evidently the Mirabilis Liber of 1522, which contained a range of prophecies by Pseudo-Methodius, the Tiburtine Sibyl, Joachim of Fiore, Savonarola and others (his Preface contains 24 biblical quotations, all but two in the order used by Savonarola). This book had enjoyed considerable success in the 1520s, when it went through half a dozen editions, but did not sustain its influence, perhaps owing to its mostly Latin text, Gothic script and many difficult abbreviations. Nostradamus was one of the first to re-paraphrase these prophecies in French, which may explain why they are credited to him. Modern views of plagiarism did not apply in the 16th century; authors frequently copied and paraphrased passages without acknowledgement, especially from the classics. The latest research suggests that he may in fact have used bibliomancy for this—randomly selecting a book of history or prophecy and taking his cue from whatever page it happened to fall open at.[6]
Further material was gleaned from the De honesta disciplina of 1504 by Petrus Crinitus,[44] which included extracts from Michael Psellos's De daemonibus, and the De Mysteriis Aegyptiorum (Concerning the mysteries of Egypt), a book on Chaldean and Assyrian magic by Iamblichus, a 4th-century Neo-Platonist. Latin versions of both had recently been published in Lyon, and extracts from both are paraphrased (in the second case almost literally) in his first two verses, the first of which is appended to this article. While it is true that Nostradamus claimed in 1555 to have burned all of the occult works in his library, no one can say exactly what books were destroyed in this fire.
Only in the 17th century did people start to notice his reliance on earlier, mainly classical sources.[d]
Nostradamus's reliance on historical precedent is reflected in the fact that he explicitly rejected the label "prophet" (i.e. a person having prophetic powers of his own) on several occasions:[45]
Although, my son, I have used the word prophet, I would not attribute to myself a title of such lofty sublimity.
— Preface to César, 1555[46]
Not that I would attribute to myself either the name or the role of a prophet.
— Preface to César, 1555[46]
[S]ome of [the prophets] predicted great and marvelous things to come: [though] for me, I in no way attribute to myself such a title here.
— Letter to King Henry II, 1558[47]
Not that I am foolish enough to claim to be a prophet.
— Open letter to Privy Councillor (later Chancellor) Birague, 15 June 1566[45]
Detail from title-page of the original 1555 (Albi) edition of Nostradamus's Les Prophéties
Given this reliance on literary sources, it is unlikely that Nostradamus used any particular methods for entering a trance state, other than contemplation, meditation and incubation.[48] His sole description of this process is contained in 'letter 41' of his collected Latin correspondence.[49] The popular legend that he attempted the ancient methods of flame gazing, water gazing or both simultaneously is based on a naive reading of his first two verses, which merely liken his efforts to those of the Delphic and Branchidic oracles. The first of these is reproduced at the bottom of this article and the second can be seen by visiting the relevant facsimile site (see External Links). In his dedication to King Henry II, Nostradamus describes "emptying my soul, mind and heart of all care, worry and unease through mental calm and tranquility", but his frequent references to the "bronze tripod" of the Delphic rite are usually preceded by the words "as though" (compare, once again, External References to the original texts).
Interpretations[edit]
Content of the quatrains[edit]
Most of the quatrains deal with disasters, such as plagues, earthquakes, wars, floods, invasions, murders, droughts, and battles—all undated and based on foreshadowings by the Mirabilis Liber. Some quatrains cover these disasters in overall terms; others concern a single person or small group of people. Some cover a single town, others several towns in several countries.[50] A major, underlying theme is an impending invasion of Europe by Muslim forces from farther east and south headed by the expected Antichrist, directly reflecting the then-current Ottoman invasions and the earlier Saracen equivalents, as well as the prior expectations of the Mirabilis Liber.[51] All of this is presented in the context of the supposedly imminent end of the world—even though this is not in fact mentioned[52]—a conviction that sparked numerous collections of end-time prophecies at the time, including an unpublished collection by Christopher Columbus.[53] [54] Views on Nostradamus have varied widely throughout history.[55] Academic views such as those of Jacques Halbronn regard Nostradamus's Prophecies as antedated forgeries written by later hands with a political axe to grind.[55]
Popular claims[edit]
Nostradamus's supporters have retrospectively claimed that he predicted major world events, including the Great Fire of London, the French Revolution, the rises of Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler, the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and September 11 attacks.[55][27]
Many of Nostradamus's supporters believe his prophecies are genuine.[55] Owing to the subjective nature of these interpretations, however, no two of them completely agree on what Nostradamus predicted, whether for the past or for the future.[55] Many supporters, however, do agree, for example, that he predicted the Great Fire of London, the French Revolution, the rises of Napoleon and Adolf Hitler,[56][e] both world wars, and the nuclear destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.[55][27] Popular authors frequently claim that he predicted whatever major event had just happened at the time of each book's publication, such as the Apollo moon landings in 1969, the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster in 1986, the death of Diana, Princess of Wales in 1997, and the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center in 2001.[27][57] This 'movable feast' aspect appears to be characteristic of the genre.[55]
Possibly the first of these books to become popular in English was Henry C. Roberts' The Complete Prophecies of Nostradamus of 1947, reprinted at least seven times during the next forty years, which contained both transcriptions and translations, with brief commentaries. This was followed in 1961 (reprinted in 1982) by Edgar Leoni's Nostradamus and His Prophecies. After that came Erika Cheetham's The Prophecies of Nostradamus, incorporating a reprint of the posthumous 1568 edition, which was reprinted, revised and republished several times from 1973 onwards, latterly as The Final Prophecies of Nostradamus. This served as the basis for the documentary The Man Who Saw Tomorrow and both did indeed mention possible generalised future attacks on New York (via nuclear weapons), though not specifically on the World Trade Center or on any particular date.[58]
A two-part translation of Jean-Charles de Fontbrune's Nostradamus: historien et prophète was published in 1980, and John Hogue has published a number of books on Nostradamus from about 1987, including Nostradamus and the Millennium: Predictions of the Future, Nostradamus: The Complete Prophecies (1999) and Nostradamus: A Life and Myth (2003). In 1992 one commentator who claimed to be able to contact Nostradamus under hypnosis even had him "interpreting" his own verse X.6 (a prediction specifically about floods in southern France around the city of Nîmes and people taking refuge in its collosse, or Colosseum, a Roman amphitheatre now known as the Arènes) as a prediction of an undated attack on the Pentagon, despite the historical seer's clear statement in his dedicatory letter to King Henri II that his prophecies were about Europe, North Africa and part of Asia Minor.[59]
With the exception of Roberts, these books and their many popular imitators were almost unanimous not merely about Nostradamus's powers of prophecy but also in inventing intriguing aspects of his purported biography: that he had been a descendant of the Israelite tribe of Issachar; he had been educated by his grandfathers, who had both been physicians to the court of Good King René of Provence; he had attended Montpellier University in 1525 to gain his first degree; after returning there in 1529, he had successfully taken his medical doctorate; he had gone on to lecture in the Medical Faculty there, until his views became too unpopular; he had supported the heliocentric view of the universe; he had travelled to the Habsburg Netherlands, where he had composed prophecies at the abbey of Orval; in the course of his travels, he had performed a variety of prodigies, including identifying future Pope, Sixtus V, who was then only a seminary monk. He is credited with having successfully cured the Plague at Aix-en-Provence and elsewhere; he had engaged in scrying, using either a magic mirror or a bowl of water; he had been joined by his secretary Chavigny at Easter 1554; having published the first installment of his Prophéties, he had been summoned by Queen Catherine de' Medici to Paris in 1556 to discuss with her his prophecy at quatrain I.35 that her husband King Henri II would be killed in a duel; he had examined the royal children at Blois; he had bequeathed to his son a "lost book" of his own prophetic paintings;[f] he had been buried standing up; and he had been found, when dug up at the French Revolution, to be wearing a medallion bearing the exact date of his disinterment.[60] This was first recorded by Samuel Pepys as early as 1667, long before the French Revolution. Pepys records in his celebrated diary a legend that, before his death, Nostradamus made the townsfolk swear that his grave would never be disturbed; but that 60 years later his body was exhumed, whereupon a brass plaque was found on his chest correctly stating the date and time when his grave would be opened and cursing the exhumers.[61]
In 2000, Li Hongzhi claimed that the 1999 prophecy at X.72 was a prediction of the Chinese Falun Gong persecution which began in July 1999, leading to an increased interest in Nostradamus among Falun Gong members.[62]
Scholarly rebuttal[edit]
From the 1980s onward, however, an academic reaction set in, especially in France. The publication in 1983 of Nostradamus's private correspondence[63] and, during succeeding years, of the original editions of 1555 and 1557 discovered by Chomarat and Benazra, together with the unearthing of much original archival material[35][26] revealed that much that was claimed about Nostradamus did not fit the documented facts. The academics[35][60][26][64] revealed that not one of the claims just listed was backed up by any known contemporary documentary evidence. Most of them had evidently been based on unsourced rumours relayed as fact by much later commentators, such as Jaubert (1656), Guynaud (1693) and Bareste (1840), on modern misunderstandings of the 16th-century French texts, or on pure invention. Even the often-advanced suggestion that quatrain I.35 had successfully prophesied King Henry II's death did not actually appear in print for the first time until 1614, 55 years after the event.[65][66]
Skeptics such as James Randi suggest that his reputation as a prophet is largely manufactured by modern-day supporters who fit his words to events that have either already occurred or are so imminent as to be inevitable, a process sometimes known as "retroactive clairvoyance" (postdiction). No Nostradamus quatrain is known to have been interpreted as predicting a specific event before it occurred, other than in vague, general terms that could equally apply to any number of other events.[67] This even applies to quatrains that contain specific dates, such as III.77, which predicts "in 1727, in October, the king of Persia [shall be] captured by those of Egypt"—a prophecy that has, as ever, been interpreted retrospectively in the light of later events, in this case as though it presaged the known peace treaty between the Ottoman Empire and Persia of that year;[68] Egypt was also an important Ottoman territory at this time.[69] Similarly, Nostradamus's notorious "1999" prophecy at X.72 (see Nostradamus in popular culture) describes no event that commentators have succeeded in identifying either before or since, other than by twisting the words to fit whichever of the many contradictory happenings they claim as "hits".[70] Moreover, no quatrain suggests, as is often claimed by books and films on the alleged Mayan Prophecy, that the world would end in December 2012.[71] In his preface to the Prophecies, Nostradamus himself stated that his prophecies extend "from now to the year 3797"[72]—an extraordinary date which, given that the preface was written in 1555, may have more than a little to do with the fact that 2242 (3797–1555) had recently been proposed by his major astrological source Richard Roussat as a possible date for the end of the world.[73][74]
Additionally, scholars have pointed out that almost all English translations of Nostradamus's quatrains are of extremely poor quality, seem to display little or no knowledge of 16th-century French, are tendentious, and are sometimes intentionally altered in order to make them fit whatever events the translator believed they were supposed to refer (or vice versa).[75][64][76] None of them were based on the original editions: Roberts had based his writings on that of 1672, Cheetham and Hogue on the posthumous edition of 1568. Even Leoni accepted on page 115 that he had never seen an original edition, and on earlier pages, he indicated that much of his biographical material was unsourced.[77]
None of this research and criticism was originally known to most of the English-language commentators, by dint of the dates when they were writing and, to some extent, the language in which it was written.[78] Hogue was in a position to take advantage of it, but it was only in 2003 that he accepted that some of his earlier biographical material had in fact been apocryphal. Meanwhile, some of the more recent sources listed (Lemesurier, Gruber, Wilson) have been particularly scathing about later attempts by some lesser-known authors and Internet enthusiasts to extract alleged hidden meanings from the texts, whether with the aid of anagrams, numerical codes, graphs or otherwise.[55]
In popular culture[edit]
Main article: Nostradamus in popular culture
The prophecies retold and expanded by Nostradamus figured largely in popular culture in the 20th and 21st centuries. As well as being the subject of hundreds of books (both fiction and nonfiction), Nostradamus's life has been depicted in several films and videos, and his life and writings continue to be a subject of media interest.
There have also been several well-known Internet hoaxes, where quatrains in the style of Nostradamus have been circulated by e-mail as the real thing. The best-known examples concern the collapse of the World Trade Center in the 11 September attacks.[79]
With the arrival of the year 2012, Nostradamus's prophecies started to be co-opted (especially by the History Channel) as evidence suggesting that the end of the world was imminent, notwithstanding the fact that his book never mentions the end of the world, let alone the year 2012.[80]
It's that time of the year again where The Oscars is this Sunday! I've seen a lot of the nominated films this year, so I feel pretty confident in my predictions. So here are my predictions for best director, best score, best animated film, best visual effects, best adapted screenplay, and best original screenplay.
Best Director: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Best Score: Dunkirk
Best Animated Film: Coco
Best Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Screenplay:
Adapted: Molly's Game
Original: Three Billboards
Make sure to check out part 1 for some other predictions: www.flickr.com/photos/antdude3001/25713366787/in/datepost...
Also, if you want to check out my predictions for all the Oscar categories, check out my Letterboxd list:
letterboxd.com/antman3000/list/2018-oscars-predictions/
What are your predictions? Leave them down in the comments below!
predictions for tomorrow in southern Wisconsin: 2 inches? 4 inches? 8 inches?
Might as well be 2 feet!!!!
It's that time of the year again where The Oscars is this Sunday! I've seen a lot of the nominated films this year, so I feel pretty confident in my predictions. So here are my predictions for best film, best lead actor, best lead actress, best supporting actor, and best supporting actress!
Best Film: The Shape of Water
Best Lead Actor: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Best Lead Actress: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards)
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards)
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Make sure to check out part 2 for some other predictions: www.flickr.com/photos/antdude3001/39689489585/in/datepost...
Also, if you want to check out my predictions for all the Oscar categories, check out my Letterboxd list:
letterboxd.com/antman3000/list/2018-oscars-predictions/
What are your predictions? Leave them down in the comments below!
The Hunt for Microbes
This gallery depicts a series of futuristic pictures by the French painter Jean-Marc Côté and other artists issued in 1899, 1900, 1901 and 1910. Originally in the form of paper cards enclosed in cigarette/cigar boxes and, later, as postcards, the images described the world as it was imagined to be like in the then distant year of 2000.
At least 87 were produced, and I have managed to capture 73 of them 😊. While a few were on point (A version of Skype or Facetime), many were wildly off-tangent (underwater croquet, anyone?). And all are definitely worth a look!
Sources: All images are in the public domain; Most were obtained from gallica.bnf.fr/
, although I had to edit a few to render them in higher resolution.
Aspen, Colorado
September 5, 1980
2020 - Visions of the Future - Roaring Fork Valley (Page 1 of 7)
Nick's 1980 predictions for the year 2020
Document courtesy of:
Aspen Historical Society, IDCA Time Capsule Collection
Text:
1
2020 - VISIONS OF THE FUTURE - ROARING FORK VALLEY
By Nick DeWolf, Friday, September 5 1980
I hope we’ll take seriously the concept of burying the results of this conference in a time capsule because forty years from now most of [us] will still be alive so we will enjoy seeing what fools we were. I originally intended to give you a jazzy slide show of pictures from OMNI Magazine of wonderful machines and inventions from the future, but such fun excursions into fantasy will prevent all of us from truly thinking about tomorrow. We picked 2020 because that’s perfect vision, knowing full well that we don’t even have a chance to be close. The only forecast we can make safely is that we will be wrong, but more importantly, looking at other seasoned forecasts, we will almost certainly completely miss the most important issues forty years from now. I’ve been in the fast changing semiconductor business and thirty years ago we made all kinds of forecasts, the most optimistic of us making our most bizarre and kookiest guesses were fifteen times too low. The explosive growth just plain blew up in our faces.
In 2020 most of us will be a mere 85. By then, however, many of us will still be in our prime, with 20 years to go. But 2020 is relatively a twink away.
The earth is 4,600 million years old.
Cellular life has been here most of that time.
Photosynthesis for 2,000 million years.
Quasi-man 2 million years.
Erectus a tenth of a million years.
The last glacier coincided roughly with the birth of
consciousness (some believe), agriculture, the Church, cities, factories
- all five to ten thousand years old.
Books, schools, divorces, Hell and democracy were invented between two and five thousand years ago.
We’ve been capable of self destruction for only about thirty years.
Half of our published literature is only six years old.
Futurists of the past have held to cyclical views, a convolution
thing, such as sunspot cycles (my Father’s favorite way of predicting the stock market), but the kind of rollercoaster we’re on now makes the cyclical view seem kind of silly.
Others are evolutionists, who think about trends, and extrapolate Pitkin County growth forty years from now via percentage growth rates.
But I believe in catastrophe theory - that the future will come by lurches and leaps and creaks up and down, and changes will be more revolutionary.
Above all, more than at any other time in the history of man, we control our own destiny. The incredible number of options we have are really within our control instead of nature’s.
Many of those who want to plot charts are stuck in measuring the quality of life with measurements like:
Air pollution; Gross National Product; Nuclear Radiation levels;
Bacteria counts.
I find that those measures of the quality of life don’t interest me much - what counts to me are things like:
Rewards; Happiness; Freedom; Spark; Elan; Spirit; Privacy; Self
Expression; Fulfillment - those kinds of things.
Therefore most are incapable of attacking the subject scientifically - three cheers!
part of an archival project, featuring the work of nick dewolf
© the Nick DeWolf Foundation
Requests for use are welcome via flickrmail or nickdewolfphotoarchive [at] gmail [dot] com
Predictions of 200-1000 per hour did not pan out. Oh well beautiful night anyway. Bonus points! Reddish glow Northern lights!
Newsweek Cover, July 3, 1978: TV of Tomorrow
www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=1470218527709398&set=a.9...
Credit:
Computer Love Records
Tucker's predictions for Super Bowl 57 between
the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs!
Tucker, Welsh Corgi brings down the stuffed bulldog
before he picks it up to run for a touchdown.
Tucker's prediction is the underdogs, Kansas City Chiefs,
to win!
Tucker picked the 2023 Super Bowl 57 Champions!
Yes, The Kansas City Chiefs win in a close, exciting game
down to the final seconds with a field goal.
Chiefs win 38 to 35!
Having just finished the book, I find myself “just thinking about the weather” (like 10,000 Maniacs).
Every decade, we have added one day to our forward weather forecast. So, today’s weekly forecast is as accurate as the 2-day forecast in the 70’s. In the first book on weather prediction — 100 years ago — Lewis Fry Richardson prophesied “perhaps someday in the dim future it will be possible to advance the computation faster than the weather advances, and at a cost less than the savings to mankind due to the information gained. But that is a dream.”
What a setup for Moore’s Law! More on that later.
Weather predictions started with telegraph networks in the 1860’s. News of a storm front could arrive by electrical signals faster than the wind itself. Those physical networks were interrupted by the civil war and the great wars. The observational stations drove short term forecasts driven by simple pattern matching; meteorologists flipped through maps of prior patterns to find one that looked similar, missing the nuances in the complex networks of interactions.
What was needed was a theory, a mathematics derived from first principles of the physics of atmospheric flows. Those equations, a collection of interlocking partial differential equations, across a matrix of pressure, temperature, air density, wind vectors and such, were first published in 1904 (and are the subject of the thick textbook below). They are practically unsolvable, but can be approximated with a variety of numerical / graphical methods and approximations (hydrostatic, anelastic, autobarotropic shallow fluid, etc.). New weather prediction models were then back tested on historical data, an iterative feedback cycle of learning from past to present.
The weather became important to ship traffic and battle planning, and forecasts were weaponized in wartime. The terminology of weather “fronts” traces to the martial vernacular of WW I. The Germans were at a distinct meteorological disadvantage, with storms coming from areas controlled by the Allied powers. Siemens developed automatic weather stations with NiCad batteries and radios that could be dropped off by plane in remote locations. With 200 submarines trying to maintain a blockade of England, the Germans desperately needed weather predictions for the North Atlantic. In 1943, they sent U-537 to an uninhabited part of North America, and set up a weather station on a local peak, with a long range 30-ft. diameter antenna to beam weather data back to Germany. To evade detection, they hand-painted “Canada Meteor Service” on the side and scattered American cigarette packs about. It remained there until discovered in 1981. Yes, the only known incursion by the Nazis onto North American soil was for the weather.
Then came the rockets. The first U.S. launch of a V-2 rocket brought back from Germany snapped a picture of the cloud cover as had never been seen before, with a quarter of the U.S. in a single frame. In 1954, an Aerobee rocket cam captured the first clear image of a tropical storm swirling in the Gulf of Mexico, and it became a full-page spread in Life magazine. (I have an Aerobee nose cone, fin can, and engine on display at work).
The first weather satellite, TIROS 1, launched in 1960, and in Kennedy’s famous speech that launched the Apollo program, he also beckoned “at the earliest possible time, a satellite system for worldwide weather observation.” It was overshadowed a bit by the whole man on the moon thing.
Today, the polar-orbiting LEO satellites raster scan the Earth (like Planet Labs) and “contribute the most quantitative data to the weather models. When it comes to meaningful impacts on forecasting, they are the champs.” (p.81). We have hundreds of LEO and GEO birds with a variety of weather instruments (optical, IR, radar) providing global coverage.
It’s a torrent of data, feeding supercomputers that are upgraded every two years. About half of the supercomputers on Earth are working on the weather. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather forecasts has two supercomputers the size of volleyball courts with 260,000 processor cores (in 2019). They maintain the current champion model for forecasting. They devote 50% of their compute cycles to iterating on model improvements (and the other 50% running the latest model for the world). They have improved their forecasts continuously for 40 years straight.
To build a global model, there are global sensors from many nations, all contributing to a public good. “WMO estimates put the economic value of weather services in excess of $100 billion annually, while the cost of providing them is a tenth of that.” (p.175) Still, a big number for a public good. “The weather machine is a last bastion of international cooperation.” (p.181)
P.S. The book is not nearly as gripping as the history of ammonia, and it ends abruptly without painting a picture of what’s next for Sim-Earth... with a proliferation of networked sensors and machine learning in the mix.
It's that time of the year again where The Oscars is tomorrow! I did this back in 2015 and I forgot to do this again last year, but I didn't forget this time! And like I did last time, I'm not going to make my predictions on all the awards, only the big ones. So here are my predictions for best director, best score, best animated film, best visual effects, best adapted screenplay, and best original screenplay.
Best Director: Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Best Score: La La Land
Best Animated Film: Moana (though I wouldn't be surprised if it's Zootopia, this one was kinda tough to call)
Best Visual Effects: The Jungle Book (But I'm holding out for Doctor Strange!)
Best Screenplay:
Adapted: Arrival
Original: Manchester by the Sea
Make sure to check out part 1 for some other predictions: www.flickr.com/photos/antdude3001/33076494876/in/datepost...
What are your predictions? Leave them down in the comments below!