Alfred Hannig, Executive Director, AFI speaks during the flagship seminar Financial Inclusion: Can it Meet Multiple Macroeconomic Goals, during the 2015 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Lima, Peru. Ryan Rayburn/IMF Photo

Chairman Dr. Ashraf El Araby, Minister of Planning and International Cooperation of Egypt, delivers remarks to the media during the G24 Press Briefing at the 2014 IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C. on Thursday, April 10. IMF Photo/Ryan Rayburn

Hanan Morsy, Director of Macroeconomic Policy, Forecasting, and Research at African Development Bank having a portrait during Global Gender Summit 2019 - Macro Policymaking to Promote Women's Empowerment Plenary Session on November 26, 2019, at Kigali Convention Centre, Rwanda.

Members of the news media participate in asking questions during the G24 Press Briefing at the 2014 IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C. on Thursday, April 10. IMF Photo/Ryan Rayburn

Mr. Adam Elhiraika, Director, Macroeconomic Policy Division, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, (UNECA), Dr. Hanan Morsy, Director of Macroeconomic Policy, Forecasting and Research, African Development Bank and Dr. Raymond Gilpin, Chief Economist and Head of Strategy, Analysis and Research at United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Africa having a portrait during African Economic Conference (AEC) 2019 - Session 1 - Press Conference on December 02, 2019, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.

In the aftermath of World War II, the IMF and the World Bank were created to establish a framework for economic cooperation and development that would lead to a more stable and prosperous global economy. Over the last 75 years, the world has indeed improved—incomes and living standards have risen. The benefits, however, remain unequally distributed within many countries, and prosperity is not assured for future generations in many parts of the globe. The seminar will bring together four of the best young academics in the world to discuss how they see the future of international cooperation—and how to further improve international cooperation to strengthen macroeconomic stability and prosperity. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Harvard Professors Melissa Dell and Emmanuel Farhi; and London School of Economics Professors Dr. Keyu Jin, and Ricardo Reis discuss "Rethinking International Cooperation" at the IMF Headquarters during the 2019 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings April 10, 2019 in Washington, DC. IMF Staff Photograph/Stephen Jaffe

In the aftermath of World War II, the IMF and the World Bank were created to establish a framework for economic cooperation and development that would lead to a more stable and prosperous global economy. Over the last 75 years, the world has indeed improved—incomes and living standards have risen. The benefits, however, remain unequally distributed within many countries, and prosperity is not assured for future generations in many parts of the globe. The seminar will bring together four of the best young academics in the world to discuss how they see the future of international cooperation—and how to further improve international cooperation to strengthen macroeconomic stability and prosperity. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Harvard Professors Melissa Dell and Emmanuel Farhi; and London School of Economics Professors Dr. Keyu Jin, and Ricardo Reis discuss "Rethinking International Cooperation" at the IMF Headquarters during the 2019 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings April 10, 2019 in Washington, DC. IMF Staff Photograph/Stephen Jaffe

In the aftermath of World War II, the IMF and the World Bank were created to establish a framework for economic cooperation and development that would lead to a more stable and prosperous global economy. Over the last 75 years, the world has indeed improved—incomes and living standards have risen. The benefits, however, remain unequally distributed within many countries, and prosperity is not assured for future generations in many parts of the globe. The seminar will bring together four of the best young academics in the world to discuss how they see the future of international cooperation—and how to further improve international cooperation to strengthen macroeconomic stability and prosperity. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Harvard Professors Melissa Dell and Emmanuel Farhi; and London School of Economics Professors Dr. Keyu Jin, and Ricardo Reis discuss "Rethinking International Cooperation" at the IMF Headquarters during the 2019 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings April 10, 2019 in Washington, DC. IMF Staff Photograph/Stephen Jaffe

Closing on an optimistic note, both cited immigration reform as a promising way forward for a Congress that has been too divided to make progress on other major legislation. Krueger said, "I think immigration reform is probably the lowest-hanging fruit as far as economic and fiscal policy goes." Hubbard agreed, adding, "it should be in both sides' economic and political interest to accomplish that. And it would provide a signal far beyond immigration reform that says, 'Look, we can talk about big things that are contentious and come to a solution."

Alain Bifani(left), Director General of the Ministry of Finance of Lebanon, Dr. Ashraf El Araby, Minister of Planning and International Cooperation of Egypt, Luis Fernando Mejia, Director General of Macroeconomic Policy of the Ministry of Finance of Colombia and Amar Bhattacharya, Director of the G24 Secretariat deliver remarks to the media during the G24 Press Briefing at the 2014 IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C. on Thursday, April 10. IMF Photo/Ryan Rayburn

In the aftermath of World War II, the IMF and the World Bank were created to establish a framework for economic cooperation and development that would lead to a more stable and prosperous global economy. Over the last 75 years, the world has indeed improved—incomes and living standards have risen. The benefits, however, remain unequally distributed within many countries, and prosperity is not assured for future generations in many parts of the globe. The seminar will bring together four of the best young academics in the world to discuss how they see the future of international cooperation—and how to further improve international cooperation to strengthen macroeconomic stability and prosperity. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Harvard Professors Melissa Dell and Emmanuel Farhi; and London School of Economics Professors Dr. Keyu Jin, and Ricardo Reis discuss "Rethinking International Cooperation" at the IMF Headquarters during the 2019 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings April 10, 2019 in Washington, DC. IMF Staff Photograph/Stephen Jaffe

Catherine Korachais, Post-doctoral Fellow, Institute of Tropical Medicine

Presentation: Macroeconomic instability makes growth less pro-poor

Victor Harrison, Commissioner for Economic Affairs, African Union in a group picture with Mario Pezzini, Director, Development Centre, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Special Advisor to the OECD Secretary-General; Vincent Nmehielle, Secretary-General, African Development Bank; Dr. Hanan Morsy, Director, Macroeconomic Policy, Forecasting and Research Department, African Development Bank; Jean-Denis Gabikini, Acting Director, Economic Affairs Department, African Union; Caleb Meakins, Founder & Director, RALA Media; Prof. Emmanuel Nnadozie, Executive Secretary, African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF); and the delegates during the 33rd African Union Summit - Presentation of African Economic Outlook Report 2020 on February 7, 2020, at Medium Conference Hall, African Union, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

APRIL 05, 2023 - WASHINGTON DC. The Way Forward: A Conversation with Mohamed El-Erian. World Bank Group President David Malpass and President of Queens' College, Cambridge University, Mohamed El-Erian will have a conversation about global macroeconomic trends and their effects on development. Moderator: Pabsy Pabalan Mariano. Photo: World Bank / Grant Ellis

John Defterios

Emerging Markets Editor and Correspondent, CNN Business

Virginie Afota

Head of Asset Management, Guggenheim KBBO

Dr Junhong Chang, Director, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office and Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, IMF, sign a MOU to enhance cooperation and deepen the IMF’s work in the ASEAN+3 on Wednesday, October 11, during the 2017 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C. Ryan Rayburn/IMF Photo

University of California--San Diego economics professor James Hamilton (right) discusses oil prices and macroeconomics at a research conference at Goizueta Business School, Nov. 3, 2011. Duke University economics professor Juan Rubio-Ramirez looks on.

The conference, titled "What should we really expect from macroeconomic policy?," was co-sponsored by The Halle Institute and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Policymakers, academics, and business leaders gathered at Emory University to discuss fiscal policy and the recent financial crisis, oil prices and macroeconomics, practical considerations in developing policies, and more. Learn more: bit.ly/macro-econ.

Photo by Wilford Harewood.

Recently, many economies have come under sharp foreign exchange pressures, reflecting large commodity price declines, volatile external financing conditions, and country-specific factors. This seminar will invite central bank officials from emerging and frontier markets to discuss their recent experiences in dealing with these pressures, including the role of exchange rate flexibility and constraints imposed by the overall macroeconomic policy frameworks and balance sheets.

Session 4: Developing Asia: Challenges of Climate Change and Economic Resilience

The economic consequences of climate change are increasingly coming to bear on the economies of the Asia-Pacific region—both by raising their proclivity to experience natural disasters and in the deterioration of living standards and environmental conditions. Water resources and flooding, coastal zones, heat waves, and increasingly volatile conditions for agriculture are just some of the problems to which Asia Pacific countries must adapt in coming years. Key issues in this session include preparations and investment for, and responses to, the economic effects of climate change and ways to build macroeconomic resilience.

Moderator:

Lin Xueling, Channel NewsAsia

Panelists:

Takehiko Nakao, President, Asian Development Bank

Atiur Rahman, Governor, Central Bank of Bangladesh

Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, Attorney General and Minister of Finance, Fiji

Helen Clark, Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme

Session 4: Developing Asia: Challenges of Climate Change and Economic Resilience

The economic consequences of climate change are increasingly coming to bear on the economies of the Asia-Pacific region—both by raising their proclivity to experience natural disasters and in the deterioration of living standards and environmental conditions. Water resources and flooding, coastal zones, heat waves, and increasingly volatile conditions for agriculture are just some of the problems to which Asia Pacific countries must adapt in coming years. Key issues in this session include preparations and investment for, and responses to, the economic effects of climate change and ways to build macroeconomic resilience.

Moderator:

Lin Xueling, Channel NewsAsia

Panelists:

Takehiko Nakao, President, Asian Development Bank

Atiur Rahman, Governor, Central Bank of Bangladesh

Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, Attorney General and Minister of Finance, Fiji

Helen Clark, Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme

Group portrait of Dr. Hanan Morsy, Director of Macroeconomic Policy, Forecasting and Research Department of African Development Bank; Prof. Afeikhena Jerome, Special Adviser to the Commissioner for Rural Economy and Agriculture, African Union Commission; Sangheon Lee, Director of Employment Policy Department, International Labour Organization; Salah Khaled, Director, UNESCO Regional Office, Central Africa; Jeff Matthews, Head, LinkedIn Learning Solutions, Europe and Prof. Gary Sheldon Fields, Professor of International and Comparative Labor and Economics, Cornell University during African Economic Conference (AEC) 2019 - Plenary Session 2 - Institutions and Policies for Job Creation, Skills Acquisition and Capacity Building of African Youth (AFDB) on December 02, 2019, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.

The BRU-IUL Research Seminar Series with, Steve Keen from the Kingston University, Mariya Gubareva from ISEG and ISCAL, and Thomas Greve from ISCTE-IUL took place at ISCTE-IUL on the 26th of october 2018.

Topics in order of presentation:

"Why macroeconomics needs to be a monetary discipline "

"IFRS 9 Compliant Economic Adjustment of Expected Credit Loss Modeling"

"An optimal and efficient prior-free mechanism – a case from the energy sector "

Moderation Sofia VAle from ISCTE-IUL.

Fotografia de Hugo Alexandre Cruz.

Carolina Trivelli, former Minister of Social Inclusion, Peru, speaks during the flagship seminar Financial Inclusion: Can it Meet Multiple Macroeconomic Goals, during the 2015 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Lima, Peru. Ryan Rayburn/IMF Photo

Panelists (left to right) Elizabeth Shuler, Secretary Treasurer, American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations, David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director, IMF, Moderator Sheila MacVicar, Nyaradzayi Gumbonzvanda, Chair of the ActionAid International Board, Kalpana Kochar, Director, Human Resources Department, James Heintz, Professor of Economics and Claver Gatete, Minister of Finance and Economic Planning of Rwanda backstage before the panel Making Macroeconomics Work for Women on Wednesday, October 5 during the 2016 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C. Ryan Rayburn/IMF Photo

Session 4: Developing Asia: Challenges of Climate Change and Economic Resilience

The economic consequences of climate change are increasingly coming to bear on the economies of the Asia-Pacific region—both by raising their proclivity to experience natural disasters and in the deterioration of living standards and environmental conditions. Water resources and flooding, coastal zones, heat waves, and increasingly volatile conditions for agriculture are just some of the problems to which Asia Pacific countries must adapt in coming years. Key issues in this session include preparations and investment for, and responses to, the economic effects of climate change and ways to build macroeconomic resilience.

Moderator:

Lin Xueling, Channel NewsAsia

Panelists:

Takehiko Nakao, President, Asian Development Bank

Atiur Rahman, Governor, Central Bank of Bangladesh

Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, Attorney General and Minister of Finance, Fiji

Helen Clark, Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme

This infographic accompanies the paper 'Scotland analysis: macroeconomic and fiscal performance'. You can view the paper online here: www.gov.uk/government/publications/scotland-analysis-macr...

APRIL 05, 2023 - WASHINGTON DC. The Way Forward: A Conversation with Mohamed El-Erian. World Bank Group President David Malpass and President of Queens' College, Cambridge University, Mohamed El-Erian will have a conversation about global macroeconomic trends and their effects on development. Moderator: Pabsy Pabalan Mariano. Photo: World Bank / Grant Ellis

We revisit the relationship between international trade, economic growth, and income inequality. Our cross-country analysis considers the strength of trade connections as well as characteristics of countries’ export markets and products. We also conduct event studies of past trade liberalization episodes to extract general lessons for the impact of trade on economic growth and inequality. Our research points to two broad messages: First, trade openness and connectivity to the center of the trade network has substantial macroeconomic benefits. Second, deeper trade integration is unlikely to be a key driver of rising income inequality. IMF Photo by Kyle Bergner.

Session 1: Asian Growth Models

Over the past 15 years, economies in Asia have become stronger, and social progress and poverty reduction have seen significant improvements. This session will examine recent performance and sources of resilience, but also address the main social and economic challenges facing the region going forward, and consider ways that economic policy can advance employment growth and social progress more widely. Key issues for discussion include slowing potential growth, rising debt, infrastructure bottlenecks, regional integration, and the role of trade and other structural reforms in boosting output and macroeconomic resilience.

Moderator:

Marcus Brauchli, North Base Media and former Executive Editor of Washington Post

Panelists:

Arvind Subramanian, Chief Economic Advisor, Ministry of Finance, India

Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times

Eisuke Sakakibara, former vice-Minister of Finance, Japan

Caroline Atkinson, Head of Global Public Policy at Google

Zhongxia Jin, Executive Director for China, International Monetary Fund

The 2015 migrant crisis has subsided, but integrating the large new stock of migrants into the labor market and society remains a daunting challenge for many European host countries. What do we know about the process of labor market integration for migrants of different characteristics? What factors help smooth the transition, and what are lessons for policymakers? Our work explores these questions by drawing from worker-level information from five recent waves of Eurostat’s Labor Force Surveys covering 13 major European economies. Specifically, we estimate the native-immigrant employment gap upon the immigrant’s arrival in the host country and subsequent speed of catching up. We also examine the roles of education and initial macroeconomic conditions in affecting the integration process. IMF Photo by Emre Ozdemir.

Dr Junhong Chang, Director, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office and Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, IMF, sign a MOU to enhance cooperation and deepen the IMF’s work in the ASEAN+3 on Wednesday, October 11, during the 2017 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C. Ryan Rayburn/IMF Photo

Session 4: Developing Asia: Challenges of Climate Change and Economic Resilience

The economic consequences of climate change are increasingly coming to bear on the economies of the Asia-Pacific region—both by raising their proclivity to experience natural disasters and in the deterioration of living standards and environmental conditions. Water resources and flooding, coastal zones, heat waves, and increasingly volatile conditions for agriculture are just some of the problems to which Asia Pacific countries must adapt in coming years. Key issues in this session include preparations and investment for, and responses to, the economic effects of climate change and ways to build macroeconomic resilience.

Moderator:

Lin Xueling, Channel NewsAsia

Panelists:

Takehiko Nakao, President, Asian Development Bank

Atiur Rahman, Governor, Central Bank of Bangladesh

Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, Attorney General and Minister of Finance, Fiji

Helen Clark, Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme

Fulcrum Asset Management's Gavyn Davies and Goldman Sachs' JIm O'Neill discuss the Macroeconomic Climate with the FT's Martin Wolf at FT Business of Luxury Summit 2011.

Participants at the Round Table I

Session 4: Developing Asia: Challenges of Climate Change and Economic Resilience

The economic consequences of climate change are increasingly coming to bear on the economies of the Asia-Pacific region—both by raising their proclivity to experience natural disasters and in the deterioration of living standards and environmental conditions. Water resources and flooding, coastal zones, heat waves, and increasingly volatile conditions for agriculture are just some of the problems to which Asia Pacific countries must adapt in coming years. Key issues in this session include preparations and investment for, and responses to, the economic effects of climate change and ways to build macroeconomic resilience.

Moderator:

Lin Xueling, Channel NewsAsia

Panelists:

Takehiko Nakao, President, Asian Development Bank

Atiur Rahman, Governor, Central Bank of Bangladesh

Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, Attorney General and Minister of Finance, Fiji

Helen Clark, Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme

Duke University economics professor Juan Rubio-Ramirez discusses oil prices and macroeconomics at a research conference at Goizueta Business School, Nov. 3, 2011.

The conference, titled "What should we really expect from macroeconomic policy?," was co-sponsored by The Halle Institute and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Policymakers, academics, and business leaders gathered at Emory University to discuss fiscal policy and the recent financial crisis, oil prices and macroeconomics, practical considerations in developing policies, and more. Learn more: bit.ly/macro-econ.

Photo by Wilford Harewood.

The IMF will hold a conference on Gender and Macroeconomics on March 23-24, 2017 at the IMF Headquarters in Washington, DC. The conference will provide a forum for discussing innovative empirical and theoretical research on gender and macroeconomics and policy implications, with specific application to the challenges of low-income and developing countries. Topics will include female labor force participation, financial inclusion, trade diversification, firm performance, intra-household choices, public investment, and macroeconomic outcomes.

The 2015 migrant crisis has subsided, but integrating the large new stock of migrants into the labor market and society remains a daunting challenge for many European host countries. What do we know about the process of labor market integration for migrants of different characteristics? What factors help smooth the transition, and what are lessons for policymakers? Our work explores these questions by drawing from worker-level information from five recent waves of Eurostat’s Labor Force Surveys covering 13 major European economies. Specifically, we estimate the native-immigrant employment gap upon the immigrant’s arrival in the host country and subsequent speed of catching up. We also examine the roles of education and initial macroeconomic conditions in affecting the integration process. IMF Photo by Emre Ozdemir.

Dr Junhong Chang, Director, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office and Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, IMF, sign a MOU to enhance cooperation and deepen the IMF’s work in the ASEAN+3 on Wednesday, October 11, during the 2017 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C. Ryan Rayburn/IMF Photo

On Monday, June 6, 2016, Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen spoke to members, guests, and students at a World Affairs Council of Philadelphia luncheon event.

Janet L. Yellen took office as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on February 3, 2014, for a four-year term ending February 3, 2018. Dr. Yellen also serves as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the System's principal monetary policymaking body. Prior to her appointment as Chair, Dr. Yellen served as Vice Chair of the Board of Governors, taking office in October 2010, when she simultaneously began a 14-year term as a member of the Board that will expire January 31, 2024.

Dr. Yellen is Professor Emeritus at the University of California at Berkeley where she was the Eugene E. and Catherine M. Trefethen Professor of Business and Professor of Economics and has been a faculty member since 1980.

Dr. Yellen took leave from Berkeley for five years starting August 1994. She served as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System through February 1997, and then left the Federal Reserve to become chair of the Council of Economic Advisers through August 1999. She also chaired the Economic Policy Committee of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development from 1997 to 1999. She also served as President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco from 2004 to 2010.

Dr. Yellen is a member of both the Council on Foreign Relations and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. She has served as President of the Western Economic Association, Vice President of the American Economic Association and a Fellow of the Yale Corporation.

Dr. Yellen graduated summa cum laude from Brown University with a degree in economics in 1967, and received her Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University in 1971. She received the Wilbur Cross Medal from Yale in 1997, an honorary doctor of laws degree from Brown in 1998, and an honorary doctor of humane letters from Bard College in 2000.

An Assistant Professor at Harvard University from 1971 to 1976, Dr. Yellen served as an Economist with the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors in 1977 and 1978, and on the faculty of the London School of Economics and Political Science from 1978 to 1980.

Dr. Yellen has written on a wide variety of macroeconomic issues, while specializing in the causes, mechanisms, and implications of unemployment.

www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/the-sudden-reversal-o...

The sudden reversal of the global chip shortage

BEIJING (CAIXIN GLOBAL) - Remember the global semiconductor shortage a few months ago? It’s over.

Now, quickly shrinking demand for consumer electronics is causing cancelled orders and unsold stockpiles at makers of integrated circuits including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) and Nvidia.

It’s a stark contrast with the disruptions that chip shortages caused for makers of autos, smartphones, computers and other goods that rely on the advanced electronic devices.

“This round of business sentiment is reversing so fast that chip designers were struggling to find production capacity only last year, but now they find chips won’t sell,” said analyst Xie Ruifeng from semiconductor industry market research institute ICwise.

The multibillion-dollar smartphone industry has cut at least three rounds of orders to chipmakers so far in 2022, a mobile industry veteran told Caixin.

Shrinking smartphone, PC demand

Global 5G smartphone shipments will shrink by as much as 150 million units in 2022, and demand for 5G phone chips will fall by 100 million to 120 million units, market research firm Strategy Analytics estimated.

Meanwhile, smartphone manufacturers are stuck managing high inventories. As at the end of June, global inventories of finished smartphones reached 200 million units, the mobile industry veteran estimated.

Many smartphone manufacturers built up six months of stockpiles based on 2021’s more optimistic expectations, Mr Xie said. Phone-makers also stocked up on components after experiencing chip shortages, with high inventories concentrated in the mid- to low-end 5G chips, said Mr Sravan Kundojjala, associate director of smartphone component technology services at Strategy Analytics.

Phone-makers have also accumulated huge inventories of components such as radio frequency chips. Mr Sravan projected that supplies could last until mid-2023. Demand for chips in smartphones and personal computers (PCs) accounts for more than half of global foundry capacity.

At present, automotive chips are still in short supply but account for less than 10 per cent of the total chip market. Smartphones and PCs have a decisive impact on the semiconductor industry, one analyst said.

The PC market also faces declining demand. Consulting group Gartner estimated that worldwide PC shipments totalled 72 million units in the second quarter of 2022, down nearly 13 per cent year over year – the sharpest decline in nine years.

Weak chip outlook

TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, faces reduced orders from four of its largest customers, reflecting slowing global demand. JPMorgan Chase said in a report in early September that AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm and MediaTek slashed chip orders with TSMC.

While reporting a record quarterly profit surge for the July-to-September quarter last week, TSMC warned of a likely decline for the entire semiconductor industry in 2023 and cut its capital spending forecast by 10 per cent in 2022.

Other semiconductor companies are also facing tough conditions. AMD lowered its revenue forecast for the third quarter, citing significant weakening in the PC market. Intel, Nvidia and Micron Technology all issued subdued outlooks.

In the first half of 2022, macroeconomic headwinds and a number of “black swan” factors combined to cause consumer electronics demand to plummet, with smartphones and PCs bearing the brunt. Micron predicted that global PC shipments will decline by 10 per cent to 20 per cent in 2022, while the global smartphone market will decline by less than 10 per cent.

To reduce inventories, some chipmakers have begun slashing prices. After order cancellations from Samsung, Shanghai-based mobile chipset maker UNISOC may lower its prices by 20 per cent to 30 per cent in the second half, a semiconductor analyst estimated. For example, a UNISOC 4G smartphone chip that sold for almost US$17 (S$24) last year now costs about US$9.

Qualcomm will cut the price of its new generation of mid-range 5G mobile phone chips by 10 per cent to 15 per cent in the second half, and MediaTek will cut prices by the same among for several 5G chips, Isaiah Research estimated.

Where’s the bottom?

It is difficult to predict when the consumer market will bottom out and demand will rebound amid war, political turmoil and economic uncertainty.

The market is concerned that new capacity built amid a historic chip shortage since the second half of 2020 will gradually come online starting at the end of 2022. This means the global chip industry will enter a sustained period of overcapacity.

Wafer demand in 2023 is expected to be flat with 2022 or decline slightly, while capacity is expected to grow about 7 per cent in 2023, signalling oversupply, according to Mr Dale Gai, research director at Counterpoint Research.

However, Mr Gai said demand for advanced smartphone chips continued to expand, reflecting robust demand by high-end brands including iPhone. The overall industry might see demand bottom out in 2024, he said.

China’s resilience

China, however, presents a different picture. As the United States tightens sanctions on the country’s semiconductor sector, domestic chipmakers are accelerating efforts to develop alternatives.

The latest round of restrictions mainly targets advanced chips, which are generally characterised as having process nodes smaller than 28 nanometers. In semiconductor design, smaller process node sizes denote more-advanced technology.

Power management integrated circuit (PMIC) chips, which manage battery power charging and sleep modes and scaling of voltages down or up on electronic devices, don’t rely on advanced process nodes.

The PMIC market has long been dominated by global players including Texas Instruments and Infineon Technologies. Now, capacity is slowly shifting towards Chinese manufacturers, Mr Gai said.

In the long term, global wafer capacity is in tight balance or regional oversupply, but China is in short supply as expanding capacity is one of the country’s core objectives, ICwise’s Mr Xie said.

China’s wafer foundry expansion momentum has not slowed. In August, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) co-chief executive Zhao Haijun said at the company’s second-quarter earnings conference that the domestic contract chip industry still has great prospects.

“We will not change our plans for long-term capacity expansion and development,” he said.

In addition to expanding its existing 12-inch and 8-inch wafer production lines, SMIC is also building three new 12-inch wafer projects in Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai. Once completed, the company’s total capacity will double.

This story was originally published by Caixin Global.

Session 4: Developing Asia: Challenges of Climate Change and Economic Resilience

The economic consequences of climate change are increasingly coming to bear on the economies of the Asia-Pacific region—both by raising their proclivity to experience natural disasters and in the deterioration of living standards and environmental conditions. Water resources and flooding, coastal zones, heat waves, and increasingly volatile conditions for agriculture are just some of the problems to which Asia Pacific countries must adapt in coming years. Key issues in this session include preparations and investment for, and responses to, the economic effects of climate change and ways to build macroeconomic resilience.

Moderator:

Lin Xueling, Channel NewsAsia

Panelists:

Takehiko Nakao, President, Asian Development Bank

Atiur Rahman, Governor, Central Bank of Bangladesh

Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, Attorney General and Minister of Finance, Fiji

Helen Clark, Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme

President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde (L) attends a Eurogroup meeting under the theme "Exchange of views on macroeconomic and fiscal developments" included in the official program of the Portuguese Presidency of the Council of the European Union in Lisbon, Portugal, 21 May 2021. Finance ministers will discuss the functioning of adjustment mechanisms in the euro area, focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic. This exchange is part of an ongoing dialogue aiming to strengthen the exchange of information between the European Parliament and the Eurogroup. ANTONIO PEDRO SANTOS/LUSA

Session 4: Developing Asia: Challenges of Climate Change and Economic Resilience

The economic consequences of climate change are increasingly coming to bear on the economies of the Asia-Pacific region—both by raising their proclivity to experience natural disasters and in the deterioration of living standards and environmental conditions. Water resources and flooding, coastal zones, heat waves, and increasingly volatile conditions for agriculture are just some of the problems to which Asia Pacific countries must adapt in coming years. Key issues in this session include preparations and investment for, and responses to, the economic effects of climate change and ways to build macroeconomic resilience.

Moderator:

Lin Xueling, Channel NewsAsia

Panelists:

Takehiko Nakao, President, Asian Development Bank

Atiur Rahman, Governor, Central Bank of Bangladesh

Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, Attorney General and Minister of Finance, Fiji

Helen Clark, Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme

We revisit the relationship between international trade, economic growth, and income inequality. Our cross-country analysis considers the strength of trade connections as well as characteristics of countries’ export markets and products. We also conduct event studies of past trade liberalization episodes to extract general lessons for the impact of trade on economic growth and inequality. Our research points to two broad messages: First, trade openness and connectivity to the center of the trade network has substantial macroeconomic benefits. Second, deeper trade integration is unlikely to be a key driver of rising income inequality. IMF Photo by Kyle Bergner.

The Global Risks: The China Context session at the Annual Meeting of the New Champions 2013 in Dalian, China 11 September 2013. From left to right are Lifen Zhang, Associate Editor, Financial Times; Editor-in-Chief, FTChinese.com, Xue Lan, Dean, School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Chan YuenYing, Director and Professor, Journalism and Media Studies Centre, University of Hong Kong, Wang Yiming, Executive Vice-President, Academy of Macroeconomic Research, National Development and Reform Commission, Li Ling, Professor of Economics, China Center for Economic Research (CCER), Zhang Haibin, Professor, School of International Studies, Peking University. Photo by World Economic Forum/Nick Otto

Sanjay Pradhan, Chief Executive Officer, Open Government Partnership; Bartholomew Armah, Chief of Development Planning, Macroeconomics and Governance Division, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA); Hanan Morsi, Director of the Macroeconomic Policy, Forecasting and Research Department, African Development Bank; Kenneth Igbomor, Agri Economist & Markets Editor for West Africa, CNBC Africa; and Raymond Gilpin, Chief Economist and Head of Strategy, Regional Bureau for Africa, United Nations Development Program (UNDP) attending the Day-one of the African Economic Conference (AEC) 2020, Virtual Conference on December 8, 2020.