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2020 is a special year for China as it marks the deadline to achieve goals of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, implementing the 13th five-year plan, and winning the decisive battle against poverty.
This launch event will discuss how China should continue to develop its agricultural industry in a global context to meet the goals above, and how China and the world should respond to challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic and support the poor and vulnerable groups.
The China Agricultural Sector Development Report 2020 (CASDR) analyzes the domestic and foreign macroeconomic and agricultural industry conditions. The report reviews the important events in 2019, including the persistence of trade frictions between China and the United States, the spread of African swine fever, etc. Besides, the report assesses the competitiveness of China’s agricultural industry from the perspectives of total factor productivity, international trade and production cost. The report provides studies on the impact of COVID-19 on China’s agriculture and farmers’ income; research on the recovering of pig production capacity and its key influencing factors; and simulations of the impact of fall armyworm on China’s corn industry in 2020. Moreover, it summarizes the characteristics of 18 important agricultural product industries development in 2019 and prospecting trends in the next two years.
The IFPRI 2020 Global Food Policy Report (GFPR) highlights the central role that inclusive food systems play in meeting global goals to end poverty, hunger, and malnutrition, and offers recommendations for making food systems more inclusive for four marginalized groups – smallholders, women, youth, and conflict-affected people. The report also provides analysis on transforming national food system in several countries like Bangladesh and Ethiopia, and advice on development of food system in different regions worldwide. As for China, smallholders and other marginalized groups are affected by African swine fever, trade disputes between China and the United States, COVID-19 and other uncertainties. Their livelihoods, food security, and nutritional status require particular attention. GFPR calls for supporting the poor and the most vulnerable to build inclusive food systems
During the event, an overview of the GFPR's and CASDR's findings will be presented.
Opening Remarks
Host, Longjiang Yuan, Director, Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development (IAED)
Johan Swinnen, Director General, IFPRI
Huajun Tang, President, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)
Reports Launch
China Agricultural Sector Development Report 2020 (CASDR)
Xurong Mei, Vice President, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)
IFPRI 2020 Global Food Policy Report (GFPR)
Shenggen Fan, Chair Professor of China Agricultural University, former Director General of IFPRI
Comments and Advice on Reports
Host, Kevin Chen, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI
Changyun Jiang, Deputy Director of the Institute of Industrial and Technical Economics, National Development and Reform Commission
Hongyu Zhang, Vice Dean of China Institute for Rural Studies, Tsinghua University
Xiaohua Chen, Member of the National Committee of CPPCC, former Vice-Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, President of Chinese Association of Agricultural Economics
Xingqing Ye, Director General, Research Department of Rural Economy, Development Research Center of the State Council
Xiurong He, Professor of College of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University, Consultant of the State Council
www.ifpri.org/event/china-and-global-agricultural-policy-...
Huw Pill, Chief Economist at the Bank of England, discussing the panel titled Lessons from recent experiences in macroeconomic forecasting, at the ECB Forum on central banking, 28 June 2023 in Sintra, Portugal.
© Sérgio Garcia/Your Image for ECB
Fiscal rules, policy and macroeconomic stabilisation in the euro area
Evi Pappa, Professor, Unversidad Carlos III Madrid
Discussant: Vítor Gaspar, Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund
Chair: Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
© Bernd Hartung / European Central Bank
Portrait of Dr. Hanan Morsy, Director, Macroeconomic Policy, Forecasting, and Research Department, African Development Bank during African Economic Conference (AEC) 2019 - Plenary Session 5 - The Future of Work for Youth Challenges, Opportunities, Policies on December 4, 2019, at Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.
This series of workshops advances the work of a comprehensive comparative study of the fiscal histories of eleven Latin American countries. A team of economists in each of the countries will produce a monetary and fiscal history of each country from 1960 to the present. Viewing country specific data as “case studies,” the researchers will test two central hypotheses: first, that bad fiscal and monetary policies led to macroeconomic instability, and second, that macroeconomic instability was responsible for low growth and poor economic performance in this region.
These photos are from the workshop held in Argentina on August 18. Learn more: bfi.uchicago.edu/events/fiscal-and-monetary-history-latin...
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde delivers introductory remarks at the "Financial Inclusion: Macroeconomic and REgulatory Challenges" seminar April 11, 2016 at the IMF Headquarter in Washington, DC. IMF Staff Photograph/Stephen Jaffe
Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board at the European Central Bank chairing the panel titled Lessons from recent experiences in macroeconomic forecasting, at the ECB Forum on central banking, 28 June 2023 in Sintra, Portugal.
© Sérgio Garcia/Your Image for ECB
5 May 2021. The 16th informal meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Finance Ministers was held on the sidelines of the 54th Annual Meeting of the ADB Board of Governors. The theme of the informal meeting was “Economic Recovery from COVID-19: Toward Inclusive and Resilient Growth.” Participants discussed fiscal and other macroeconomic policies that help South Asian economies to recover.
5 May 2021. The 16th informal meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Finance Ministers was held on the sidelines of the 54th Annual Meeting of the ADB Board of Governors. The theme of the informal meeting was “Economic Recovery from COVID-19: Toward Inclusive and Resilient Growth.” Participants discussed fiscal and other macroeconomic policies that help South Asian economies to recover.
The Oxford Summer and Winter Schools in Ecological Economics organized by Environment Europe have attracted high level participants from Canada, USA, Mexico, St Lucia, Equador, Costa Rica, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Bosnia, Latvia, Ghana, Nigeria, China, India, Taiwan, and Australia.
You will find more on the programme and registration following this link: environmenteurope.org/education/1
In the aftermath of World War II, the IMF and the World Bank were created to establish a framework for economic cooperation and development that would lead to a more stable and prosperous global economy. Over the last 75 years, the world has indeed improved—incomes and living standards have risen. The benefits, however, remain unequally distributed within many countries, and prosperity is not assured for future generations in many parts of the globe. The seminar will bring together four of the best young academics in the world to discuss how they see the future of international cooperation—and how to further improve international cooperation to strengthen macroeconomic stability and prosperity. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Harvard Professors Melissa Dell and Emmanuel Farhi; and London School of Economics Professors Dr. Keyu Jin, and Ricardo Reis discuss "Rethinking International Cooperation" at the IMF Headquarters during the 2019 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings April 10, 2019 in Washington, DC. IMF Staff Photograph/Stephen Jaffe
2020 is a special year for China as it marks the deadline to achieve goals of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, implementing the 13th five-year plan, and winning the decisive battle against poverty.
This launch event will discuss how China should continue to develop its agricultural industry in a global context to meet the goals above, and how China and the world should respond to challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic and support the poor and vulnerable groups.
The China Agricultural Sector Development Report 2020 (CASDR) analyzes the domestic and foreign macroeconomic and agricultural industry conditions. The report reviews the important events in 2019, including the persistence of trade frictions between China and the United States, the spread of African swine fever, etc. Besides, the report assesses the competitiveness of China’s agricultural industry from the perspectives of total factor productivity, international trade and production cost. The report provides studies on the impact of COVID-19 on China’s agriculture and farmers’ income; research on the recovering of pig production capacity and its key influencing factors; and simulations of the impact of fall armyworm on China’s corn industry in 2020. Moreover, it summarizes the characteristics of 18 important agricultural product industries development in 2019 and prospecting trends in the next two years.
The IFPRI 2020 Global Food Policy Report (GFPR) highlights the central role that inclusive food systems play in meeting global goals to end poverty, hunger, and malnutrition, and offers recommendations for making food systems more inclusive for four marginalized groups – smallholders, women, youth, and conflict-affected people. The report also provides analysis on transforming national food system in several countries like Bangladesh and Ethiopia, and advice on development of food system in different regions worldwide. As for China, smallholders and other marginalized groups are affected by African swine fever, trade disputes between China and the United States, COVID-19 and other uncertainties. Their livelihoods, food security, and nutritional status require particular attention. GFPR calls for supporting the poor and the most vulnerable to build inclusive food systems
During the event, an overview of the GFPR's and CASDR's findings will be presented.
Opening Remarks
Host, Longjiang Yuan, Director, Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development (IAED)
Johan Swinnen, Director General, IFPRI
Huajun Tang, President, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)
Reports Launch
China Agricultural Sector Development Report 2020 (CASDR)
Xurong Mei, Vice President, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)
IFPRI 2020 Global Food Policy Report (GFPR)
Shenggen Fan, Chair Professor of China Agricultural University, former Director General of IFPRI
Comments and Advice on Reports
Host, Kevin Chen, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI
Changyun Jiang, Deputy Director of the Institute of Industrial and Technical Economics, National Development and Reform Commission
Hongyu Zhang, Vice Dean of China Institute for Rural Studies, Tsinghua University
Xiaohua Chen, Member of the National Committee of CPPCC, former Vice-Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, President of Chinese Association of Agricultural Economics
Xingqing Ye, Director General, Research Department of Rural Economy, Development Research Center of the State Council
Xiurong He, Professor of College of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University, Consultant of the State Council
www.ifpri.org/event/china-and-global-agricultural-policy-...
The purpose of this workshop is to take stock of emerging best practices on big data and facilitate peer-learning across the membership. The discussion brings together government agencies, international organizations, and the private sector at the forefront of using big data and new technology to produce macroeconomic and financial indicators.
Thematic panel on Coordinated macroeconomic, employment and social protection policies, Monday, 5 December 2011. ILO 15th Asia and the Pacific Regional Meeting, Kyoto, Japan, 4-7 December 2011.
5 May 2021. The 16th informal meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Finance Ministers was held on the sidelines of the 54th Annual Meeting of the ADB Board of Governors. The theme of the informal meeting was “Economic Recovery from COVID-19: Toward Inclusive and Resilient Growth.” Participants discussed fiscal and other macroeconomic policies that help South Asian economies to recover.
In the aftermath of World War II, the IMF and the World Bank were created to establish a framework for economic cooperation and development that would lead to a more stable and prosperous global economy. Over the last 75 years, the world has indeed improved—incomes and living standards have risen. The benefits, however, remain unequally distributed within many countries, and prosperity is not assured for future generations in many parts of the globe. The seminar will bring together four of the best young academics in the world to discuss how they see the future of international cooperation—and how to further improve international cooperation to strengthen macroeconomic stability and prosperity. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Harvard Professors Melissa Dell and Emmanuel Farhi; and London School of Economics Professors Dr. Keyu Jin, and Ricardo Reis discuss "Rethinking International Cooperation" at the IMF Headquarters during the 2019 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings April 10, 2019 in Washington, DC. IMF Staff Photograph/Stephen Jaffe
Gillian R. Tett, US Managing Editor, Financial Times, USA at the World Economic Forum on Latin America in Riviera Maya, Mexico 2015. Copyright by World Economic Forum / Benedikt von Loebell
Fiscal rules, policy and macroeconomic stabilisation in the euro area
Evi Pappa, Professor, Unversidad Carlos III Madrid
Discussant: Vítor Gaspar, Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund
Chair: Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
© Bernd Hartung / European Central Bank
Monetary policy challenges from falling natural interest rates
Klaus Adam, Professor, University of Oxford
Discussant: Argia Sbordone, Vice President and Function Head, Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies Function, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Chair: Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
© Bernd Hartung / European Central Bank
In the aftermath of World War II, the IMF and the World Bank were created to establish a framework for economic cooperation and development that would lead to a more stable and prosperous global economy. Over the last 75 years, the world has indeed improved—incomes and living standards have risen. The benefits, however, remain unequally distributed within many countries, and prosperity is not assured for future generations in many parts of the globe. The seminar will bring together four of the best young academics in the world to discuss how they see the future of international cooperation—and how to further improve international cooperation to strengthen macroeconomic stability and prosperity. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Harvard Professors Melissa Dell and Emmanuel Farhi; and London School of Economics Professors Dr. Keyu Jin, and Ricardo Reis discuss "Rethinking International Cooperation" at the IMF Headquarters during the 2019 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings April 10, 2019 in Washington, DC. IMF Staff Photograph/Stephen Jaffe
In the aftermath of World War II, the IMF and the World Bank were created to establish a framework for economic cooperation and development that would lead to a more stable and prosperous global economy. Over the last 75 years, the world has indeed improved—incomes and living standards have risen. The benefits, however, remain unequally distributed within many countries, and prosperity is not assured for future generations in many parts of the globe. The seminar will bring together four of the best young academics in the world to discuss how they see the future of international cooperation—and how to further improve international cooperation to strengthen macroeconomic stability and prosperity. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Harvard Professors Melissa Dell and Emmanuel Farhi; and London School of Economics Professors Dr. Keyu Jin, and Ricardo Reis discuss "Rethinking International Cooperation" at the IMF Headquarters during the 2019 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings April 10, 2019 in Washington, DC. IMF Staff Photograph/Stephen Jaffe
Mr. Ali Mahmoud Mohamed Abdelrasoul, Chairman of the African Caucus, and
Ms. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
co-chaired the African Consultative Group meeting today at the IMF Headquarters. They
issued the following statement after the conclusion of the Group’s meeting in Washington. [1]
“We discussed the near-term outlook for Africa and some pressing policy challenges. Africa grew slightly faster than the global economy in 2012, but there are marked differences across regions and country groups. Most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continued to record robust growth, but activity in middle income countries in the continent remained sluggish, in part reflecting closer trade linkages with Europe and, in some North African countries, complex political transitions. Looking ahead, growth is projected to remain robust in Sub-Saharan Africa, while recovering gradually in much of North Africa. There are downside risks to the outlook, most notably stemming from the uncertain global environment and from political developments in some countries.
“Against this background, we agreed that countries will have to tailor their policies according to the main challenges they face. Fast growing countries are well-positioned to strengthen fiscal positions, weakened during the crisis period, but slow growing countries will need to moderate the pace of adjustment to support domestic demand. In undertaking fiscal consolidation, it will be important to ensure adequate financing of infrastructure and social needs. The trade-offs involved between these two objectives can be eased by renewed efforts to mobilize revenue and to better prioritize public spending (including the scaling back of costly energy subsidies and replacing them with better targeted forms of social protection), complemented , where available, by concessional financing and grants.
“We also agreed on the critical importance of accelerating job creation in the continent. In most countries, investing in education, reducing skill mismatches with private employers’ needs, improving access to finance, and amending business regulations and fostering competition will go a long way to promote employment growth. In addition, many countries, especially low-income ones, stand to gain by investing in infrastructure and raising agricultural productivity.”
“African Governors noted that in the post-financial crisis period, sustaining growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability is becoming a major challenge. Progress in rebuilding buffers has been slow over the past few years, as tightening fiscal policy without creating social tensions and undermining growth prospects is proving difficult for many countries in the continent. Going forward, they cautioned that strategies to rebuild policy space have to balance adjustment against the need to maintain growth and preserve priority social spending and public investment. In this connection, they welcomed the ongoing review of the policy on debt limits in Fund-supported programs and expressed their expectation that the reform package would ensure that borrowing countries would have enough flexibility to manage the financing of essential public investment. Equally, they called on the IMF to explore options for debt relief in favor of countries in debt distress in the continent. They welcomed the IMF continued provision of technical assistance through regional centers. They also encouraged the IMF to conduct more analytical work to better assist member countries in their efforts to foster inclusive growth and stimulate job creation,” Mr. Abdelrasoul said.
Ms. Lagarde added: “On the IMF side, we have recently implemented important initiatives to strengthen our support to African countries through capacity building and financial assistance. To enhance our support for capacity-building, we have established a new Africa Training Institute in Mauritius that will begin operations in the next few months and are to open a sixth regional technical assistance center that will serve the continent in Accra later this year, to meet the needs of non-francophone West African countries. On financial assistance, we have extended the exceptional zero-interest rate on concessional loans for low-income countries through end-2014 and are working to secure the resources needed to continue providing concessional financing to low-income countries on a self-sustained basis over the longer term.”
In closing, the co-chairs noted that “African policy makers and IMF staff will continue working together to monitor domestic and global developments to deal with any adverse events and deploy policies to ensure a strong economic performance in the period ahead”.
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[1] The African Consultative Group comprises the Fund Governors of a subset of 15 African countries belonging to the African Caucus and Fund management. It was formed in 2007 to enhance the IMF’s policy dialogue with the African Caucus. The Group meets at the time of the Spring Meetings, while Fund Management meets with the full membership of the African Caucus at the time of the Annual Meetings.
5 May 2021. The 16th informal meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Finance Ministers was held on the sidelines of the 54th Annual Meeting of the ADB Board of Governors. The theme of the informal meeting was “Economic Recovery from COVID-19: Toward Inclusive and Resilient Growth.” Participants discussed fiscal and other macroeconomic policies that help South Asian economies to recover.
In the aftermath of World War II, the IMF and the World Bank were created to establish a framework for economic cooperation and development that would lead to a more stable and prosperous global economy. Over the last 75 years, the world has indeed improved—incomes and living standards have risen. The benefits, however, remain unequally distributed within many countries, and prosperity is not assured for future generations in many parts of the globe. The seminar will bring together four of the best young academics in the world to discuss how they see the future of international cooperation—and how to further improve international cooperation to strengthen macroeconomic stability and prosperity. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Harvard Professors Melissa Dell and Emmanuel Farhi; and London School of Economics Professors Dr. Keyu Jin, and Ricardo Reis discuss "Rethinking International Cooperation" at the IMF Headquarters during the 2019 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings April 10, 2019 in Washington, DC. IMF Staff Photograph/Stephen Jaffe
5 May 2021. The 16th informal meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Finance Ministers was held on the sidelines of the 54th Annual Meeting of the ADB Board of Governors. The theme of the informal meeting was “Economic Recovery from COVID-19: Toward Inclusive and Resilient Growth.” Participants discussed fiscal and other macroeconomic policies that help South Asian economies to recover.
In the aftermath of World War II, the IMF and the World Bank were created to establish a framework for economic cooperation and development that would lead to a more stable and prosperous global economy. Over the last 75 years, the world has indeed improved—incomes and living standards have risen. The benefits, however, remain unequally distributed within many countries, and prosperity is not assured for future generations in many parts of the globe. The seminar will bring together four of the best young academics in the world to discuss how they see the future of international cooperation—and how to further improve international cooperation to strengthen macroeconomic stability and prosperity. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Harvard Professors Melissa Dell and Emmanuel Farhi; and London School of Economics Professors Dr. Keyu Jin, and Ricardo Reis discuss "Rethinking International Cooperation" at the IMF Headquarters during the 2019 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings April 10, 2019 in Washington, DC. IMF Staff Photograph/Stephen Jaffe
Monetary policy challenges from falling natural interest rates
Klaus Adam, Professor, University of Oxford
Discussant: Argia Sbordone, Vice President and Function Head, Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies Function, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Chair: Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
© Bernd Hartung / European Central Bank
Monetary policy challenges from falling natural interest rates
Klaus Adam, Professor, University of Oxford
Discussant: Argia Sbordone, Vice President and Function Head, Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies Function, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Chair: Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
© Bernd Hartung / European Central Bank
In the CD Talk - Macroeconomic Frameworks - Scaling Up Government Capacity with Online Training, Yongzheng Yang, Ellen Nedde and Lyn Javier speak about innovative approaches for training to shrink the skills gap at the IMF Headquarters during the 2019 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings, October 16, 2019 in Washington, DC. IMF Photograph/Joshua Roberts
5 May 2021. The 16th informal meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Finance Ministers was held on the sidelines of the 54th Annual Meeting of the ADB Board of Governors. The theme of the informal meeting was “Economic Recovery from COVID-19: Toward Inclusive and Resilient Growth.” Participants discussed fiscal and other macroeconomic policies that help South Asian economies to recover.
RIVIERA MAYA, QUINTANA ROO, MEXICO., May 17th, 2012. - The Mexican businessman and chairman of Grupo Carso Carlos Slim Helu said that Mexico will be a developed country in 10 or 15 years, noting that it has macroeconomic conditions, financial and better human potential for progress. During his participation in the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), The Americas Summit, Slim noted that Mexico has a very strong position and the fact that developed countries are in this crisis, can see that there plenty of cheap money in the long term, available and looking to make better investments. Served on a panel by Secretary of Tourism, Gloria Guevara Manzo, and the president of the WTTC, David Scowsill, the businessman said to grow Mexico as Latin America needs large investments. Photo.-Hugo ORTUÑO
PANELISTS:
THARMAN S: IMFC CHAIRMAN
CHRISTINE LAGARDE, IMF MANAGING DIRECTOR
DAVID LIPTON: IMF FIRST DEPUTY MANAGING DIRECTOR
GERRY RICE: IMF COMMUNICATIONS DEPARTMENT
MR. RICE: - Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for coming and welcome to this press conference on behalf of the IMFC. I am delighted to have with us today the Chairman of the IMFC, Chairman Tharman, and also the Managing Director is here, as well as Mr. Lipton, the First Deputy Managing Director.
MR. THARMAN - Thank you very much. First, apologies for keeping you waiting.We have had a very good meeting of minds over the last two days in our various IMFC sessions. I would say that there are a few common strands to the discussions, and a common mission that everyone advocated.
First, there was a very strong desire to see us focus individually in our own countries, as well as collectively, to focus on getting growth back to normal, and in fact raising potential output growth in the global economy. And a very strong desire to see a return to some normality in jobs, to reduce the still very high levels of unemployment in the advanced economies, and to create new jobs in the emerging economies. So, growth and jobs were a very strong focus of our discussions.
We're not fully passed the crisis, but if I compare it to the meetings a year ago, there was a much stronger focus on growth and jobs over the last two days.
There was also a strong and common recognition that achieving growth and jobs cannot rest on one policy alone. There is no single bullet that will get us to normal growth and so normality with regard to jobs. In particular, around the table, amongst all my colleagues, there was a very strong view that we had to place greater emphasis on structural reforms to create jobs, as well as to boost productivity. There also had to be a stronger emphasis on credibility in medium-term fiscal consolidation. That is the second strategy.
There still needed to be accommodative monetary policy in the advanced economies, but an over reliance on accommodative monetary policy, without addressing the need for credible, medium-term fiscal consolidation and without stepping up the pace of structural reforms, was unlikely to lead us back to normal growth and to job creation. So, the emphasis was toward a better balance of strategies--monetary, fiscal, and structural--with a stronger emphasis on medium-term fiscal and structural reforms rather than a single reliance or an overly heavy reliance on monetary policy.
That was the tenor of the discussions. I would say on a better track in the three-speed world, as Ms. Lagarde talked about. We have to use this time to build up buffers, because there is a risk, particularly with capital flows, and a risk that our economies are doing better, that you are going to get a buildup of new problems arising from credit creation as well as problems in asset markets. We have to use this time to build up buffers and start acting on the prudential side to guard against future risks. So I would summarize those as two broad themes in our discussion, for which there was a very good meeting of minds.
No disagreements in views, and we all felt strongly about those conclusions.
MS. LAGARDE - Thank you, Chairman. Let me preface brief comments by thanking publicly the Chairman of the IMFC, not only a rock star as some of you have mentioned in your papers, but he is a voice of reason and a man of vision. He has the ability to bring people together, which is exceptional in the context of the IMFC, because you have representatives from very different corners, with a different pace of development, with different levels of development, with different concerns, as he has just indicated, but some of them have really transcended the discussions that we had over the last couple of days.
Clearly, the one mentioned first and foremost was jobs and growth, whether you look at the MENA transition countries, for instance, or whether you look at some of the advanced economies in the eurozone, or whether you look at Japan, or whether you look at the United States, and some emerging market economies as well, every policy maker is keen to develop jobs and to respond to the demands of the young population in particular. So, anything that works to create jobs---obviously, starting with growth and the good policy mix, which relies on not just one policy, but a set of policies that will include fiscal consolidation at the right pace, structural reforms (which really bonded all members together this morning as we were going through the list of to-dos), and monetary policy, is clearly intended to respond to the job and growth demand that is out there.
One piece of information: we have yesterday concluded a staff-level agreement with Tunisia. So Tunisia will be another country in the Middle East where we will be helping and supporting that country's economic recovery and stability. So that is, from my perspective, certainly a piece of good news from yesterday's developments.
QUESTION: Mr. Tharman, I'm interested, what aspect of the discussion about macro policy and the conditions right now presumes that things went wrong and we can get back to where we were? I'm wondering if you are comfortable vis-à-vis the developed economies with that basic conclusion, that basic presumption, the levels of employment, levels of production, do we understand what the output gap really is, and if we could get back to where we were, or have things changed?
MR. THARMAN - Good question. I would say by way of a short answer that the commodity that is in shorter supply now is confidence. And again, around the table, certainly from my colleagues from the advanced economies themselves, they felt that we had to address this forthrightly. Confidence needs to be strengthened by stronger predictability in medium-term fiscal policy, in other words the markets need to believe and populations need to believe that there is a medium-term fiscal strategy. This is important because without a medium-term fiscal strategy, in some sense a consolidation will be achieved over the medium term, it is very hard to have short-term flexibility in fiscal policy. And it is also very hard for population to be willing to go through some of the challenges of structural reforms without a sense that there is a coherent medium-term strategy.
Two things were very strongly emphasized. We need to regenerate optimism and confidence and if we rely only on monetary policy to achieve that, it will reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy itself. Monetary policy accompanied by structural reforms that give a chance to young people to get jobs, structural reforms that help companies to upgrade and improve productivity, is much more likely to succeed. And fiscal policy that takes place together with structural reforms rather than fiscal policy focused on short-term adjustment objectives is also more likely to succeed in enhancing confidence over the medium term.
QUESTION: I have a question for the Managing Director about the spillover effects on emerging markets. From yesterday's G-20 statement we can see that advanced countries are intending to extend their monetary easing. I wonder if IMF or G-20 countries will take any further measures to better monitor the spillover effects to address emerging country concerns?
MS LAGARDE - One view that was generally shared amongst the group was that under current circumstances the monetary easing or the unconventional monetary policies that we observed particularly out of the advanced economies is appropriate, not in and of itself, not in isolation, but as Chairman Tharman just indicated, as a composition of the mix, so that was a statement number one.
Then you have this double concern, one that there is more of it, and what will be the consequences, what will be the spillover effects for all economies, not only emerging market economies, but all those that offer the yields, if you will, for capital to flow there, and to be invested, and the second fear, which is exactly the opposite of that one, is what happens when it stops and what is the exit route and how smoothly does that happen? So, the IMF will be doing some additional work to review the consequences of unconventional monetary policy, we call it UMP now, and what will be the consequences of the variety of exit and what will be the good exit, as opposed to the more unpleasant exit for all members.
QUESTION: Madame Lagarde, a question about Slovenia. On one side we have the Slovenian government claiming everything is fine, everything is under control, and on the other side we have media and markets saying exactly the opposite. How can you see the situation in Slovenia, and what should be done in Slovenia for it not to become Cyprus?
MS. LAGARDE - I think the best is to actually verify by ourselves and to rely on the observation of facts, and I think it is our duty to the membership to go to the bottom of the facts and to assess all the components of any economy. We will do that with Slovenia as we do with any other economy.
I would not trust the rumors, the trepidation, whether from media, markets, or otherwise. What we see is the statements made by the new government, led by a woman prime minister, which I find encouraging, to have my own bias on that point. I know that she has indicated that she wants to pursue privatization, that she wants to allow for better management of companies that are on the fringe of insolvency, and that she wants to reinforce the capital of Slovenia banks. Those three principles are not bad principles from which to start. And having said that, we are working in a constant dialogue with all our members and we will do so with Slovenia as well.
QUESTION: Should emerging market economies be encouraged to defensively intervene in the currency markets to offset the effects of monetary policy in industrialized countries?
MR. THARMAN - We can't be purist about it. That applies in both directions. In other words, you can't rely entirely on defensive measures, to keep your exchange rate unchanged, because if you do that, then there is an implication for domestic money supply and liquidity in your domestic asset markets. But neither can we take a view that short-term capital flows which are potentially volatile, should be accommodated fully by movements in exchange rates.
I think there is a pragmatic view that is emerging amongst the emerging countries, which is that you do need to have some flexibility in your exchange rates, but because you are not quite sure how permanent capital flows are, it would be unwise to rely purely on exchange rate adjustments, to cope with capital flows. Particularly when they're portfolio capital flows distinct from foreign direct investment and there has been an increase in portfolio capital flows generally. We are taking a pragmatic view. We have been able to manage so far, but again relying on one instrument, whether it is the exchange rate, or macroprudential controls, or domestic monetary policy adjustments, relying on just one instrument is unlikely to be an efficient solution. You do need a mix of responses, and we have got to do it in country-specific circumstances in a way that is sensible.
QUESTION: The communiqué makes reference to eventual exit from monetary expansion. Is that aimed at any particular country or group of countries? Because, this language seems to have crept into the communiqué quite strongly in the last few days.
Secondly, given the terrible problem, really destructive problems in the eurozone at the moment, there seems to be very little reference to the really deep-seated problems there. We have had Cyprus, Slovenia, 25 percent unemployment in Spain, the French economy is doing rather badly. You seem to gloss over the very serious problems which is still going on in the eurozone.
MS. LAGARDE - On the issue you raise about exit, it is unspecified in terms of target. We certainly heard from the entire membership that it is unconventional. The central bankers have very much jumped into an unknown landscape, uncharted territory as they have said. And, there is clearly a common view that we should do further work and investigation and academic research to make sure that we identify the risks and the benefits of any exit.
On the issue of Europe, you will remember if you were at the press conference at the opening of the session that I identified three speeds at which the countries were recovering at the moment, and in the lowest speed was clearly the eurozone. So we did not water that down. It was very much front and center of all discussions. And, we heard from our European colleagues, their determination to pursue some of the structural reforms that they have started, particularly on European banking union. They have indicated their determination to complete their draft directive on resolution of banks throughout Europe. And, there is clearly a set of national reforms and national fiscal consolidation going on throughout the region. It is not to say that part of the world is out of the woods. It is the one that is traveling at the slowest pace and which still has work to do.
QUESTION: Question for the Managing Director. You mentioned the breakthrough in Tunisia. Just wondering how will the money be used, to cushion reserves, or something else? Also, do you foresee a breakthrough in talks with Egypt soon in the next few days? Egyptian authorities are giving it a two-week time frame. Can you comment?
MS. LAGARDE - I'm afraid I will let you down on the first one, because I don't know yet the composition of exactly what they have agreed. I think it is US$ 1.75 billion. This was agreed literally late yesterday, so it is extremely fresh news. I haven't yet seen the terms and conditions, and details of the program. That would help me respond to your question. If you are interested, we can follow-up for you and help you with that.
On Egypt, we have been saying many times it will be for next week, so I would rather not plan for any completion or conclusion of our negotiations. I know that the teams have met here, and saw the minister yesterday, seeing him again today. So, I hope we continue the progress we have made. It is a task and we will not give up. We will not leave the table. We have to continue the work and we have to be of support to the Egyptian population. We'll do everything we can. We cannot be the only one to do that. It will take international support and international donors to also help Egypt.
QUESTION: Madame Lagarde, I wish to know if you have in your mind the important momentum of reforms that we have in Mexico and the political agreements? What can you tell me in that respect?
MS. LAGARDE - I have to tell you that we follow carefully what happens in Mexico, particularly since the election of your new president, and I'm very personally very impressed by the way in which he has actually rallied support around a comprehensive program of reforms. And how he has managed to organize the transition so well with his predecessor, how he managed to rally other political parties with the view to improving the Mexican situation. And we have heard from the governor of central bank, Mr. Carstens, and his colleague, the minister of finance, their determination to put in place very wide ranging list of reforms. Speaking from memory, education, the health system, some privatization of various sectors of the economy, particularly in telecommunication. This is most impressive. And, it is a country that has fared well during the crisis, whether there has been a little bit of slowdown in the pace of growth last year, but where we expect that the reforms that have been announced, have been agreed very much by consensus with others, will actually take the country further. We sense that determination in the team and we welcome it. We believe they have the right policy mix in place, very solid macroeconomic policies for quite awhile, and we hope that will help the country.
QUESTION: There are some reports in Europe today, Madame Lagarde, that you and Secretary Lew had a tough talk with Mr. Schauble, because the IMF and the U.S. are asking the Europeans to issue the eurobond. And also that you and the United States are asking for less measures. Is this true? Can you comment on that report?
MS. LAGARDE - I promise you, it is not. You referred to something I have not participated in, and of which I don't know -- I don't know who is inventing it or making it up, but no, not the case at all.
Fiscal rules, policy and macroeconomic stabilisation in the euro area
Evi Pappa, Professor, Unversidad Carlos III Madrid
Discussant: Vítor Gaspar, Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund
Chair: Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
© Bernd Hartung / European Central Bank
APRIL 05, 2023 - WASHINGTON DC. The Way Forward: A Conversation with Mohamed El-Erian. World Bank Group President David Malpass and President of Queens' College, Cambridge University, Mohamed El-Erian will have a conversation about global macroeconomic trends and their effects on development. Moderator: Pabsy Pabalan Mariano. Photo: World Bank / Grant Ellis
The purpose of this workshop is to take stock of emerging best practices on big data and facilitate peer-learning across the membership. The discussion brings together government agencies, international organizations, and the private sector at the forefront of using big data and new technology to produce macroeconomic and financial indicators.