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Chapter 10

Overconfidence: Albert and Raiffa (1982) (though apparently the paper languished for a decade before formal publication). Lichtenstein and. Fischhoff (1977) showed that overconfidence can be influenced by item difficulty; it typically diminishes and turns into underconfidence in easy items...

 

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www.pomdy.com/book/the-black-swan/notes-behind-the-curtai...

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Uploaded on January 10, 2016