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Reid Garrett Hoffman is an American internet entrepreneur, venture capitalist and author. Hoffman is best known as the co-founder of LinkedIn, a business-oriented social network used primarily for professional networking. Hoffman, with a net worth of US$4.7 billion, is ranked as #341 on the list of the world's richest people.
This is the most difficult speaking event, by far, that I take on, and somehow I keep coming back.
Just spank me with that red paddle!
Five panelists are asked to come up with two tech trends that we think are worthy of the top 10 title, and that are, as they instruct:
1) Not obvious today
2) You believe there will be explosive growth in about five years’ time
When you do this for many years, it gets harder and harder. For several years now, I have done this, and have to come up with new ones each year. If it's too obvious, it's boring. If it's too radical, it might not be relevant over the next five years. And it had to be important and new... worthy of a top 10 tech trend.
So, here are the 10 trends...
What do you think? Which do you agree most with? Disagree most with? Think are too obvious?
Trend 1. Radical Globalization of Social Commerce (Kevin Efrusy)
In prior cycles, international segments consisted of 30-40 percent of revenue, begun 3-5 years after the US effort. Going forward, "ROW" can dominate domestic, and players who wait to address it are vulnerable to competitors who go global first.
Trend 2. Zero Marginal Cost Education (Bing Gordon)
In the 1970s, ATMs were considered “dehumanizing” and bank tellers were the gold standard. But tellers got worse, while ATMs improved. Public education seems to be repeating this pattern, and the oligopolists of “big education” don’t seem to have read Innovator’s Dilemma.
Trend 3. Massive Sensors and Data (Reid Hoffman)
Sensors cost trends to zero; there are sensors everywhere and part of everything. In combination, we'll create multiple data collections that power applications and innovations to improve our lives. Genetics, disease, and symptom data for automate tri-corders, precision diagnosis, and personalized medicine. Collaborative filtering of all kinds of discovery– from music to information to professional training.
Trend 4. All Vehicles Go Electric (Steve Jurvetson)
Eventually all motor vehicles will transition to an electric drive train, affording greater efficiency, convenience, and a multitude of new design options. Within five years, this inevitability will become clear. ([it got heated at times; here is a short video clip of Peter Thiel's reaction.)
Trend 5. A Shift Toward Technocracy: Doing More with Less (Peter Thiel)
Democrats want government to do more with more. Republicans say government should do less with less. Technology might allow it to do more with less.
Trend 6. It's Just the Venture Cycle (Kevin Efrusy)
The fortunes of Silicon Valley rarely mirror the rest of the world because the ebb and flow of creative disruption follows a different pattern and 14-16 year cycle than the macro economy. We appear to be right on schedule...
Trend 7. Gamification of Everything (Bing Gordon)
As Lance Armstrong wrote, “Every second counts.” As digital natives increasingly multi-task, and as the social web creates geometric growth in posts, the battle is for engagement. For the growing population of game-players, reportedly 70% of Americans, games are important systems for creating meaning, and can increase behavior by 25 to 100%.
Trend 8. The New Hardware: Bits to Atoms (Reid Hoffman)
Open Source patterns now applied to hardware. Collective design bases with rapid modifications. Flexible manufacturing producing limited run and unique devices. 3D printing means revolution in custom and unique goods. Ultimately, revolutions in biological and medical products and solutions.
Trend 9. Moore's Law Accelerates Beyond Silicon (Steve Jurvetson)
When we consider Moore’s Law in the abstract, the dropping cost of computation is not tapering off. Rather it will accelerate further still as we look beyond the silicon era.
Trend 10. The Beginnings of Bioinformatics; Intelligent Design Over Random Drug Discovery (Peter Thiel)
More powerful computers will turn biology into an information science.
Reid Garrett Hoffman is an American internet entrepreneur, venture capitalist and author. Hoffman is best known as the co-founder of LinkedIn, a business-oriented social network used primarily for professional networking. Hoffman, with a net worth of US$4.7 billion, is ranked as #341 on the list of the world's richest people.
...the first event at Stanford’s HAI (Human-Centered AI Institute) today.
We were asked to open with the prompt: What do you see as the top three challenges and opportunities that AI presents for the Economy? I suggested:
1) The inevitability of accelerating inequality in our current economic system
2) Concentration effects in companies (Google ASIC farms) and cultures (China, unfettered by privacy laws like HIPAA), compounding power laws on fractal scales.
3) The abundant opportunity in a post-employment era
4) Evolutionary divergence in technology (between classical engineering and iterative algorithms)
“If we are always learning in our work, it is one form of meaning. Can we be constantly learning and constantly skilling versus re-skilling.” — John Seely Brown
“Somewhere along the way, policy got divorced from evidence, and then got married to identity.” — Scott Phoenix, Vicarious
“We have a crisis of confidence in technology” — Mustafa Suleyman, DeepMind
“AI is often trained with the goal of meeting or exceeding targets of human ability. So, they end up being substitutes for human activity, rather than complements. Could we build very different machines that have goals to complement us and not do what we already do?” — James Manyika, McKinsey
“AI is born of original sin. We are a very technical field where representation is massive skewed. My singular issue is diversity, inclusion, and social equity in AI. This is linked to the fate of AI.” — Fei-Fei Li, Stanford HAI
“I like democracy, but it can’t pivot.” — Andrew Ng
“Education is different from learning. Learning is fundamentally social.
Harvard did a study of their graduates. The best indicator of future career success was the willingness to form or join a study group.” — JSB
“In the past 8 years I have received zero NSF funding. Most of it comes from companies. Stanford is one of less than 10 universities that can enjoy industry funding. I am freaking out about this. The majority of research institutions don’t have nearly the same level.” — Fei-Fei Li, Stanford HAI
I’ll share the summary policy/research agenda paper when it becomes available. Meanwhile, here is the summary from the last one, 4 years ago (that I hosted at work).
With: Erik Brynjolfsson (MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy), Reid Garrett Hoffman, Fei-Fei Li (HAI) and James Manyika (McKinsey Global Institute), in this lineup, and John Seely Brown, Andrew Ng, Eric Schmidt, Myron Scholes , and Mustafa Suleyman (Deep Mind) among others.
Fei-Fei launched the HAI Institute earlier this week... with a Rethink Robot at hand (WIRED)
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
Reid Garrett Hoffman is an American internet entrepreneur, venture capitalist and author. Hoffman is best known as the co-founder of LinkedIn, a business-oriented social network used primarily for professional networking. Hoffman, with a net worth of US$4.7 billion, is ranked as #341 on the list of the world's richest people.
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
Over 150 speakers and 1000 attendees will touch base at #dld15. For the 11th time, "Europe's hottest conference invitation" will bring together the most influential opinion-makers, industry leaders, start-ups and digital giants in Munich, January 18-20, 2015. It's going to be awesome, and it's only the beginning!
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
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MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography
MIT Media Lab, Defiance event, July 21, 2017, Cambridge MA USA // defiance.media.mit.edu
Credit: David Silverman Photography