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N88TH
From EAA Website:
Tom Hamilton, EAA 111356, designed the Glasair to be an efficient airplane; it was fast yet fuel-efficient and had a practical building time. The prototype, called the Ham2, was an all-composite, female molded, side-by-side two place aircraft. It was conventional in design as far as aerodynamics go with a good-looking appearance.
Originally, Tom had designed his airplane with tandem seating, but he ran into a few problems. The biggest problem was center of gravity travel, especially when soloed from the front seat. Flying from the rear seat proved to be awkward, cramped, and blind, especially forward through the other person’s head. Baggage space was almost nonexistent and passenger’s weight became an issue.
Tom decided to switch to side-by-side seating, which eliminated many of these problems. He saved weight by not having to duplicate instruments and controls, gaining plenty of room for IFR avionics without going to very costly miniature instruments. The Ham2 could handle a pilot up to 6 feet 2 inches in height, while all the succeeding Glasairs had an additional three inches in the canopy. Side-by-side seating can make an airplane less aerodynamically efficient, but it didn’t affect the Ham2 at all in the speed department.
The Ham2 was the prototype for the Glasair, which became an airplane that many consider ideal for cruising around in with a friend. The Glasair is able to carry two full-sized people in comfort, operate out of short fields, and throw in a roll or a loop every once in a while.
Utility and efficiency were at the heart of the Glasair design, and Ham2 was what started it all. Tom wrote a feature story about the airplane in the August 1980 issue of Sport Aviation, and then donated the Glasair prototype Ham2 to the EAA Aviation Museum in 1986.
Length: 19 feet
Wingspan: 23 feet, 3 inches
Empty Weight: 835 pounds
Gross Weight: 1,400 pounds
Maximum Speed: 230 mph
Cruise Speed: 206 mph
Seats: 2
Powerplant: Lycoming O-235
Horsepower: 150 hp
"Publishers Anonymous." Christmas Diversions. The New Statesman & Nation 48, no. 1242 (25 December 1954): 858-59. Parody advertisements by the editors for nonexistent books (PDF).
Here's the Maugham caricature by Victor Weisz, at the British Cartoon Archive.
This is my first nonexistent gun I've made. I made it on the older version and I really like it.Tell me how I did please!
I tuck the skirts up at the sides to add width to my nonexistent hips. The flowers, for the same reason. The flowers were originally from my sister-in-law's wedding...
Trying to get close to the Mona Lisa in the Louvre was a lesson in frustration. Sure, there was a bar in front of her, and some kind of glass protecting the painting, but crowd control was nonexistent so it was every person for him/herself, with elbows flying and cameras in the face. No chance for quiet contemplation . . .
“I think it is still pretty hard to be succinct and adequately describe the events of last year, especially since we are continuing to respond to COVID-19 right now in so many ways. For me personally, I can easily go back to the first 4-6 months of 2020, when we were just drinking from a fire hose. So many things were changing so rapidly, and I cannot express enough appreciation to the teams of people who put their heart and soul into doing whatever was necessary to support all of the critical response activities, changes in processes and policies, and rapid decision-making that included incredible ingenuity and innovation.
Although the Command Center team members were all experienced in emergency response, there was no playbook for COVID-19. We had to work in lockstep, meet quickly, and respond daily to enormous and rapid changes in processes and systems to protect our staff, patients, and the public. Often this was done multiple times daily, seven days per week. I was so thankful to be working with a team that was thoughtful and used constructive conflict resolution and problem-solving to make very solid decisions. It was deeply humbling and an incredible opportunity for learning so many valuable lessons in emergency response and leadership.
One area of intense emotion for me came very early in the pandemic, when it became apparent that our normal channels of PPE may be severely constrained – if not nonexistent – in a short amount of time. The knowledge that we may not be able to procure the supplies needed to protect our staff was something I never even considered possible. It was also frightening. However, through the intense devotion of so many individuals from the supply chain, infection prevention, clinical staff, and the UAB community, we have been able to bring in alternative supplies to meet the needs of our health care teams.
I want to emphasize the critical importance of the teamwork and the drive of so many UAB staff and employees who were completely selfless in their efforts to step out of their own job roles to take on whatever tasks were asked of them. This teamwork included the team that stood up a reprocessing system for our N95 respirators, as well as our local community, which donated funds and meals for our health care heroes and other in-kind gifts, so that we could continue to care for our patients and families. The list of actions and activities of kindness and support is endless, and the incredible thing is that it has not stopped to this day, as we continue to battle the pandemic and serve our community.”
Originally built between 1793 and 1797 during the Second Spanish Period, this Spanish Colonial and Neoclassical-style cathedral is the fourth church to occupy a prominent position at the heart of the city of St. Augustine. The original church, built of flammable materials, stood from 1565 until 1586, when it was burned during an attack by English Privateer Sir Francis Drake. Not even a year later, the church was rebuilt of palm logs, with a straw roof, which succumbed to fire in 1599. In 1605, thanks to a tithe from Spain, a timber church was constructed, which stood until a failed English attack on the city in 1702 by James Moore, then-governor of Carolina colony. There were attempts to rebuild the church during the First Spanish Period, starting in 1707, but these went nowhere, and the money intended for the church’s reconstruction were misallocated by corrupt officials. Instead, during the remainder of the First Spanish Period, mass was held in the St. Augustine Hospital. Following the transfer of governance of Florida to the British in 1763, the need for a new Catholic church was nonexistent, as the catholic population of the colony fled to other Spanish colonies. At the start of the Second Spanish Period in 1784, the need for a new church became more apparent, and work on the current cathedral’s Coquina stone walls began in 1793. The facade of the church features Neoclassical elements around the front doorway, with the Spanish Colonial style being employed on the roofline and limited fenestration on the front facade. The church stood in its original configuration until a fire in 1887 destroyed the timber roof structure and did major damage to the interior. Following the fire, Henry Flagler led the effort to have the cathedral rebuilt, with James Renwick, Jr. designing an expansion of the old building, giving it a rectangular cruciform layout, and adding the Spanish Renaissance-style bell tower and European-style transept to the building. The interior was rebuilt to feature exposed decorative timbers that supported the roof structure, and a decorative polychromatic tile floor. The building has since received a few more additions, which house a chapel, service areas, and offices, as well as a building to the rear of the cathedral along Treasury Street, built in the Mediterranean Revival style, which houses the offices of the Diocese of St. Augustine. Today, the cathedral remains a prominent landmark in the city, and was listed on the National Register of Historic Places and listed as a National Historic Landmark as part of the St. Augustine Town Plan Historic District in 1970.
024
Fortune Global Forum 2018
October 16th, 2018
Toronto, Canada
3:30 PM
THE NEW GLOBAL CONSUMER: DOING BUSINESS IN A DIGITAL ECONOMY
The digital economy is no longer part of the economy. It is the economy. How can traditional brick-and-mortar firms reinvent themselves, their supply chains, and their marketplaces to avoid the fate of brands once thought of as everlasting but which are now nonexistent? And how are new platforms – from e-commerce to shared services – rewriting the rules of the game? A conversation on how businesses can manage expectations for digitally empowered customers, and how technology is being used to enhance the customer experience.
Alain Bejjani, Chief Executive Officer, Majid al Futtaim
Andrea Stairs, General Manager, Canada and Latin America, eBay
Ning Tang, Founder and CEO, CreditEase
Moderator: Phil Wahba, Senior Writer, Fortune
Photograph by Stuart Isett/Fortune
4 varieties of Alpaca at Pumapungo Inca site Cuenca, Ecuador. Alpaca is not a Llama.
Alpaca (Vicugna pacos) is a domesticated species of South American camelid. It resembles a small llama in superficial appearance.
Alpacas are kept in herds that graze on the level heights of the Andes of Ecuador, southern Peru, northern Bolivia, and northern Chile at an altitude of 3,500 m (11,000 ft) to 5,000 m (16,000 ft) above sea-level, throughout the year. Alpacas are considerably smaller than llamas, and unlike llamas, alpacas were not bred to be beasts of burden but were bred specifically for their fiber. Alpaca fiber is used for making knitted and woven items, much as wool is. The fiber comes in more than 52 natural colors as classified in Peru. In the textile industry, "alpaca" primarily refers to the hair of Peruvian alpacas.
About Alpaca Fleece
Alpaca fleece is the natural fiber harvested from an alpaca. It is light weight or heavy weight, depending on how it is spun. It is soft, durable, luxurious and silky natural fiber. While similar to sheep’s wool, it is warmer, not prickly, and has no lanolin which makes it hypoallergenic. Alpaca is naturally water-repellent. Huacaya, an alpaca that grows soft spongy fiber has natural crimp, thus making a naturally elastic yarn, perfect for knits. Suri has far less crimp and thus is best suited for woven goods, but is wonderfully luxurious as well.
In physical structure, alpaca fiber is somewhat akin to hair, being very glossy. Alpaca fiber is similar to that of merino wool fiber, and alpaca yarns tend to be stronger than wool yarns. The heel hole that appears in wool socks or in elbows of wool sweaters is nonexistent in similar alpaca garments. In processing, slivers lack fiber cohesion and single alpaca rovings lack strength. Blend these together and the durability is increased several times over. More twisting is necessary, especially in Suri, and this can reduce a yarn's softness.
The alpaca has a very fine and light fleece. It does not retain water, is thermal even when wet and can resist the solar radiation effectively. These characteristics guarantee the animals a permanent and appropriate coat to fight against the extreme changes of temperature. This fiber offers the same protection to humans. Alpaca is sustainable as a fiber, and is naturally organic. Alpacas as animals are soft on the environment, making alpaca a truly green textile.
Info re Wiki and Encyclo Brit
Description: 3D red cyan anaglyph from NARA 111-B-5544 (526539) - the file is NARA's standard medium-res file, but posted in tif format on Wikimedia Commons. Both sides of the stereograph have been restored, upscaled, and slightly sharpened.
Link to file at Wikimedia Commons: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Government_corral_-_NARA_...
NARA Title: Government corral
Date: Circa 1863-1865
Notes: A stereoscopic view of the Union cavalry depot at Giesboro Point in Maryland, situated on the Potomac River, adjacent to the Nation's Capital. Tens of thousands of horses were issued from here between 1863 and 1865, and thousands of sick and broken down horses were returned here to recuperate, over 25,000 subsequently dying. In fact, there appears to be a dead horse in this photo, lying just over the fence at center.
And it wasn't just horses that died here, many of the civilian workers, who seemed to be mostly African-American "Contrabands" (freed slaves) fell victim to the foul smells and polluted working conditions at the Giesboro depot. During one period in 1863, five to ten workers were dying each day.
The original NARA file is likely the only stereograph of Giesboro posted online, and unfortunately, the 3D is not the best, and NARA's 300 dpi scan is awful - zoom-in and fine detail is nonexistent. It's really a shame, as I'm sure the glass negative has plenty of additional detail. One thing that can be seen, and it's rare in Civil War photos - real clouds seem to have been captured. I've tried to preserve these instead of wiping the sky clean, often the only practical solution when restoring these old stereographs.
Below are several excerpts to provide additional background information on Giesboro; the first is general info on the size and scope of the depot, the second describes the mysterious disease that affected many of the workers; and lastly an article about the "Great Stampede," in which over five thousand horses engineered their escape into the District and surrounding countryside, one night in December 1863.
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Report of the Secretary of War.
Published 1866
CAVALRY BUREAU
"A report from General Ekin of the operations of the quartermaster's department in connection with the cavalry bureau, and especially of the construction and operations of the principal cavalry depot at Giesboro', is submitted herewith. It gives a history of probably the largest depot ever organized for the supply of animals to an army.
To systematize and regulate the purchase and supply of horses to the cavalry, then actively engaged in the field in operations attended with great destruction of horses, a cavalry bureau was organized under General Orders No. 236, War Department, Adjutant General's Office, July 28, 1863.
The principal depot for the supply of horses for the armies in the Atlantic States was established at Giesboro', on the eastern branch of the Potomac, opposite the Capitol. Other depots were established at St. Louis, Missouri; Greenville, Louisiana; Nashville, Tennessee; Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and Wilmington, Delaware.
The principal depot was at Giesboro', occupying a farm of about 625 acres.
Within three months after commencing operations in the summer of 1863, provisions were made for the care of 15,000 animals, and within six months the depot had capacity for 30,000. The largest number present at any one time was about 21,000. Stables, stock-yards, corrals, forage-houses, workshops, storehouses, mess-houses, and quarters for the operatives and officers were constructed. A large steam mill for grinding grain and cutting hay and straw and steaming feed was erected. Wharves with berths for three large steamships, water-works with reservoir, 27,000 feet of mains and steam pumps for raising the water, and all the other conveniences for the safe-keeping, handling, and feeding of 21,000 animals, were constructed. The estimated cost of the buildings and other constructions is $1,225,000. There were in all received, issued, died, or sold at this depot to the 30th of June, 1866, 208,659 horses, of which 196,036 were cavalry horses. 25,958 horses died at the depot, most of which had been returned from the armies in the field broken down and disabled. 50,372 horses were sold from this depot to the 30th of June, 1866, at which time 32 horses remained on hand.
The depot has been since entirely broken up, the property sold, and the site returned to the owners from whom it had been rented."
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Medical and Surgical Reporter, Volume 10, Published 1863
"THE EPIDEMIC AT GIESBORO', NEAR WASHINGTON
Last week we referred to a disease that had broken out among the contraband laborers at the Government corral at Giesboro,' near Washington. According to recent reports the disease is becoming more and more virulent, and the deaths number five to ten daily. It is not improbable that, as we suggested last week, the disease is dependent upon the impure exhalations and urinous odor that abound where so many horses are kept, especially as no effective disinfectant is employed to neutralize the foul emanations.
The first symptoms of the disease are said to be a slight chill, accompanied by a painful or distressing local sensation either in the hand, arm, foot, knee or back. A stupor follows the chill, after which the disease assumes its most virulent stage. Severe pain is felt in the head and breast; great prostration of the muscular strength attends almost invariably; petechiæ, or spotted eruption of the skin, follows, and the tongue becomes black. The last symptom of the disease is that of vomiting - a most disgusting substance, resembling feces, being thrown from the stomach. In from six to twelve hours after being attacked, the disease generally leaves the patient a corpse.
Many of these symptoms are very similar to those of the disease which a few months ago prevailed in the vicinity of Philadelphia, and in other parts of the country, under the names of "Spotted Fever," and "Scarlatina Maligna." A disease which was very likely of the same general character as this, also prevailed among the negro population of this city in 1819-1821 under the name of "The Negro Fever."
As to the treatment of the disease, the indications would seem to point unmistakably to prompt and decisive stimulation. Preventive measures should not, however, be overlooked. It is represented that bad diet, irregular labor, and low, marshy ground, are the incipient cause of the epidemic at Giesboro'; and until these causes of sickness are removed, or rendered inoperative, we cannot expect a more favorable report from that locality. The use of efficient disinfectants would undoubtedly aid in removing the causes of the disorder...."
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The Weekly Pioneer and Democrat
Saint Paul Minn. Territory
January 1, 1864
GREAT STAMPEDE OF GOVERNMENT HORSES NEAR WASHINGTON.
From the Washington Star, Dec. 12.
“The stampede of the horses in the stockyard at Camp Stoneman (Giesboro Point) night before last, is described as a very exciting affair. It appears that the horses were not fresh ones, but had been worn down at the front and recruited and were sent to this camp preparatory to again being sent to the front, and that among them a large number had been placed in the enclosure on that evening. The enclosure was a rail fence about five feet high, and was regarded as a strong one; but the horses, when they got to frolicking and crowded against it with such force as to throw it down. At the time—near eleven o’clock—the watchmen were on duty, but the horses breaking down the enclosure in two places and were bursting forth in such immense force, they found it impossible to stop them. Indeed, the stampede was made in such a mass and with such violence that it was a foolhardy experiment for any number of men less than an army to attempt to stop the frightened animals, and away they went in two masses, numbering over five thousand altogether—one taking the road towards the city, and the other down the country.
The people living along the road as well as the cavalry patrol hearing the racket, were apprised of the affair some minutes before they saw the approaching host of horses, and attempted at first to check them, but ineffectually, and away they went, some as they became exhausted, taking to the fields and woods. Great consternation was occasioned, especially along the Marlboro road, and we hear that some persons who came out in the road narrowly escaped with their lives. Three young men who were on the way to the city, and met the drove, one man, wiser than his comrades, rode into a fence corner, leaving the others to continue their way, when on came the drove, making tremendous dust, and the tramp of their feet sounding similar to thunder.
The travelers were instantly engulphed, but manfully kept their horses headed towards Washington until they had plunged three or four files deep in the rear of the advancing column of horse flesh, when finding that it was impossible to go further, and that their lives were in danger, they with difficulty turned their horse’s heads, and putting spurs to them, they were soon in the front rank, the others closely pressing upon them for some miles, when they managed to escape by a by-road.
Some of the pickets on the roads in Prince George’s, it is said, hearing the sound, thought that it was an advance of the rebels, and fired their pieces and ran to the forts for refuge.
The most exciting scene, however, was at the Navy Yard bridge, where the guards attempted to stop them, and in a short time they had the bridge blocked up, when those behind crowding on and not getting through, divided and jumped into the branch [Anacostia River], where a number were drowned, others swimming the branch in safety. A large number attempted to swim the branch above the bridge, and some were also drowned here. A number of citizens were soon out, and the boys went in and extricated many of the terror-stricken animals.
There are still about six hundred of the horses missing, over eleven hundred having been picked up in the city yesterday, a large number at Bladensburg, and a still larger number at Marlboro’ and Port Tabaco, which it is thought will be sent to the depot to-day. Lieut. Ball, who has charge of the depot, believes that the loss will be less than one hundred horses, when the scattered ones are all collected, but others are of the opinion that the loss will prove to be nearer one thousand.”
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The Library of Congress has a couple nice prints of Giesboro, by Andrew Russell, at these links:
(1) tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/pnp/ppmsca/08200/08...
(2) tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/pnp/ppmsca/08200/08...
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Red/Cyan (not red/blue) glasses of the proper density must be used to view 3D effect without ghosting. Anaglyph prepared using red cyan glasses from The Center For Civil War Photography / American Battlefield Trust. CCWP Link: www.civilwarphotography.org/
A headlining performance by Looming at Black Sheep Cafe in Springfield, IL on January 17, 2014. Openers included Meredosia, Bad Catman, Bookmobile, and The Flips.
Words cannot describe how good it felt to be shooting another show at Black Sheep after so long. It doesn't have the greatest lighting and the photo pit is nonexistent, but I just feel so at home there because that community of people is just incredible. They all support each other so much and it's amazing to be a part of that and to get to photograph it every so often. And then getting to be the guest photographer for Harm House's "Record of the Night" was absolutely awesome. Honestly, when I look back, I can't even begin to describe how thankful I am to the Black Sheep venue and community for everything they've done for me. This was my training ground when I was really getting started, and these are the people who took me in and accepted me without question and without reservation. That, and they put on some kick-ass shows =)
This was the tiniest baby drum i've ever seen. It was about an inch tall and could barely swim against the current which was almost nonexistent.
The Los Angeles Lakers take their warm ups and because many fans are in attendance to say goodbye to the Lakers' Kobe Bryant the normal chant of "Beat L.A." is nonexistent.
I was kind of glad to see this. All these politically hipper-than-thous trashing the smokers. They'd get on their high horse about all the vile things the tobacco industry has done and all the dreadful candidates the tobacco industry had put in office, and they'd get all blah-de-blah-blah on all that. I'd want to say, "Shut up. Did you know that RJR Reynolds owns half the breweries in the United States, accounting for all that cheap swill we drink? Oh, and the people involved in the supply chain for pot? Charming, wonderful socialists with all of our best interests at heart."
Lori didn't give a crap. Lori was stuck in State College PA all summer with frat boys and a nonexistent nightlife. Let her smoke.
Black swan theory
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
For Taleb's book on the subject, see The Black Swan (Taleb book).
A black swan, a member of the species Cygnus atratus, which remained undocumented until the eighteenth century
The Black Swan Theory or "Theory of Black Swan Events" was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: 1) the disproportionate role of high-impact, hard to predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology, 2) the non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to their very nature of small probabilities) and 3) the psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs. Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem", the "Black Swan Theory" (capitalized) refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.
Contents [show]
[edit]Background
Black Swan Events were characterized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book (revised and completed in 2010), The Black Swan. Taleb regards almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic accomplishments as "black swans" — undirected and unpredicted. He gives the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, and the September 11 attacks as examples of Black Swan Events.
The term black swan was a Latin expression — its oldest known reference comes from the poet Juvenal's characterization of something being "rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno" (6.165).[1] In English, this Latin phrase means "a rare bird in the lands, and very like a black swan." When the phrase was coined, the black swan was presumed not to exist. The importance of the simile lies in its analogy to the fragility of any system of thought. A set of conclusions is potentially undone once any of its fundamental postulates is disproven. In this case, the observation of a single black swan would be the undoing of the phrase's underlying logic, as well as any reasoning that followed from that underlying logic.
Juvenal's phrase was a common expression in 16th century London as a statement of impossibility. The London expression derives from the Old World presumption that all swans must be white because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers.[2] In that context, a black swan was impossible or at least nonexistent. After a Dutch expedition led by explorer Willem de Vlamingh on the Swan River in 1697, discovered black swans in Western Australia[3], the term metamorphosed to connote that a perceived impossibility might later be disproven. Taleb notes that in the 19th century John Stuart Mill used the black swan logical fallacy as a new term to identify falsification.
Specifically, Taleb asserts[4] in the New York Times:
What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.
First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explains almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives.
[edit]Coping with black swan events
The main idea in Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict Black Swan Events, but to build robustness against negative ones that occur and being able to exploit positive ones. Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are very vulnerable to hazardous Black Swan Events and are exposed to losses beyond that predicted by their defective models.
Taleb states that a Black Swan Event depends on the observer—using a simple example, what may be a Black Swan surprise for a turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for its butcher—hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey" by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white".
[edit]Identifying a black swan event
Based on the author's criteria:
The event is a surprise (to the observer).
The event has a major impact.
After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it had been expected.
[edit]Epistemological approach
Taleb's black swan is different from the earlier philosophical versions of the problem, specifically in epistemology, as it concerns a phenomenon with specific empirical and statistical properties which he calls, "the fourth quadrant".[5] Taleb's problem is about epistemic limitations in some parts of the areas covered in decision making. These limitations are twofold: philosophical (mathematical) and empirical (human known epistemic biases). The philosophical problem is about the decrease in knowledge when it comes to rare events as these are not visible in past samples and therefore require a strong a priori, or what one can call an extrapolating theory; accordingly events depend more and more on theories when their probability is small. In the fourth quadrant, knowledge is both uncertain and consequences are large, requiring more robustness.
Before Taleb,[6] those who dealt with the notion of the improbable, such as Hume, Mill, and Popper focused on the problem of induction in logic, specifically, that of drawing general conclusions from specific observations. Taleb's Black Swan Event has a central and unique attribute, high impact. His claim is that almost all consequential events in history come from the unexpected—yet humans later convince themselves that these events are explainable in hindsight (bias).
One problem, labeled the ludic fallacy by Taleb, is the belief that the unstructured randomness found in life resembles the structured randomness found in games. This stems from the assumption that the unexpected may be predicted by extrapolating from variations in statistics based on past observations, especially when these statistics are presumed to represent samples from a bell-shaped curve. These concerns often are highly relevant in financial markets, where major players use value at risk models, which imply normal distributions, although market returns typically have fat tail distributions.
More generally, decision theory, based on a fixed universe or a model of possible outcomes, ignores and minimizes the effect of events that are "outside model". For instance, a simple model of daily stock market returns may include extreme moves such as Black Monday (1987), but might not model the breakdown of markets following the September 11 attacks of 2001. A fixed model considers the "known unknowns", but ignores the "unknown unknowns".
Taleb notes that other distributions are not usable with precision, but often are more descriptive, such as the fractal, power law, or scalable distributions and that awareness of these might help to temper expectations.[7]
Beyond this, he emphasizes that many events simply are without precedent, undercutting the basis of this type of reasoning altogether.
Taleb also argues for the use of counterfactual reasoning when considering risk.[8][9]
[edit]Taleb's ten principles for a black swan robust world
Taleb enumerates ten principles for building systems that are robust to Black Swan Events:[10]
What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become Too Big to Fail.
No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains.
People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus.
Do not let someone making an "incentive" bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks.
Counter-balance complexity with simplicity.
Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning.
Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to "restore confidence".
Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains.
Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible "expert" advice for their retirement.
Make an omelette with the broken eggs.
In addition to these ten principles, Taleb also recommends employing both physical and functional redundancy in the design of systems. These two steps can be found in the principles of resilience architecting. (Reference: Jackson, S. Architecting Resilient Systems: John Wiley & Sons. Hoboken, NJ: 2010.)
[edit]See also
1. ... jupons de silènes ...!!!, 2. Hycleus duodecimpunctatus, 3. ohne Blumen fehlt Dir was, 4. Fahrt ins Ungewisse, 5. Margeriten, 6. Walking the dog (217/365), 7. True love, 8. yup. everything's just peachy., 9. Scarlet Kingdom Revisited, 10. Redderated daisery, 11. A goal is a dream with a deadline, 12. Sea sponge, 13. we all leave marks in this universe but as time is passing by they're all fading away, 14. Day 343/365 : Flowers, 15. Calm, 16. one cat, 17. PURPLE BEAUTY FOR YOU - HBWeekend, 18. all the flowers of all the tomorrows are in the seeds of today, 19. Visiting the Lavenders, 20. Sun Way, 21. vintage part 2, 22. Going Postal (215/265), 23. Have a great weekend...., 24. Green Day, 25. suverajad ..., 26. i've been trying to capture this orange dirt since i got here., 27. pink rosebud, 28. European Goldfinch; Carduelis carduelis, 29. Threes a Crowd, 30. pink white reflection, 31. Market day, 32. Ready to open.., 33. By believing passionately in something that still does not exist, we create it. The nonexistent is whatever we have not sufficiently desired. (Quote by Franz Kafka), 34. Untitled, 35. ... a MP3 fruit free for you...!!! :), 36. You're a dandelion seed, That flies through the air, And lands randomly, Then disappears.
Day 165-Found out today is the 30th Anniversary of this classic movie from my childhood/tweens. It was one of the first full length skateboarding movies Id ever seen (there was a brief skating bit in the Disney movie Exile). I remember talking about this movie to my cousin and how cool it was gonna be and I thought it was amazing. I had a bootleg (still do) that recorded off of cable at the time and I almost wore out that tape i watched it so much. I mean, we went to record store after record store to find the nonexistent soundtrack, it dominated my life so much. Years later, I still look on with fondness for it, even when it was on primetime with a different name one time (A Brother's Justice). I catch it now and again randomly and here I have it downloaded from youtube as the dvd is freaking expensive and region 2 only that I could find...Years later, I met Richard Herd, the bad guy of the movie and he was the nicest man, which to my tweenage mind was blown...if you get what I mean. Such a storied history with this movie and I cant believe its 30 years old. I still remember the theme song...GLEEEEEEAMING THE CUUUUBE! RIDINGHARDER AND FASTER THAN ANYONE BEFORE!!!!
Two weeks ago we happened to arrive in Columbus just one hour after the end of an Ohio State football game. Once on campus we discovered that the tailgating party (parties) had only just begun. Due to clogged streets and nonexistent parking, this is as close to the stadium as we could get.
When I first saw this area in the 70s, crowds like this were unknown and shops like these were nonexistent. It was already called Soho -- the name was coined in 1968 but had little cachet before the 80s. I remember once coming down here from midtown, eating at a restaurant on Spring Street (a block from here) that I'd read about in the Times, and then walking down to a photo exhibit at a gallery on White Street in Tribeca. There was nothing to see along the way.
024
Fortune Global Forum 2018
October 16th, 2018
Toronto, Canada
3:30 PM
THE NEW GLOBAL CONSUMER: DOING BUSINESS IN A DIGITAL ECONOMY
The digital economy is no longer part of the economy. It is the economy. How can traditional brick-and-mortar firms reinvent themselves, their supply chains, and their marketplaces to avoid the fate of brands once thought of as everlasting but which are now nonexistent? And how are new platforms – from e-commerce to shared services – rewriting the rules of the game? A conversation on how businesses can manage expectations for digitally empowered customers, and how technology is being used to enhance the customer experience.
Alain Bejjani, Chief Executive Officer, Majid al Futtaim
Andrea Stairs, General Manager, Canada and Latin America, eBay
Ning Tang, Founder and CEO, CreditEase
Moderator: Phil Wahba, Senior Writer, Fortune
Photograph by Stuart Isett/Fortune
Almost-complete Record of the Night...
Words cannot describe how good it felt to be shooting another show at Black Sheep after so long. It doesn't have the greatest lighting and the photo pit is nonexistent, but I just feel so at home there because that community of people is just incredible. They all support each other so much and it's amazing to be a part of that and to get to photograph it every so often. And then getting to be the guest photographer for Harm House's "Record of the Night" was absolutely awesome. Honestly, when I look back, I can't even begin to describe how thankful I am to the Black Sheep venue and community for everything they've done for me. This was my training ground when I was really getting started, and these are the people who took me in and accepted me without question and without reservation. That, and they put on some kick-ass shows =)
024
Fortune Global Forum 2018
October 16th, 2018
Toronto, Canada
3:30 PM
THE NEW GLOBAL CONSUMER: DOING BUSINESS IN A DIGITAL ECONOMY
The digital economy is no longer part of the economy. It is the economy. How can traditional brick-and-mortar firms reinvent themselves, their supply chains, and their marketplaces to avoid the fate of brands once thought of as everlasting but which are now nonexistent? And how are new platforms – from e-commerce to shared services – rewriting the rules of the game? A conversation on how businesses can manage expectations for digitally empowered customers, and how technology is being used to enhance the customer experience.
Alain Bejjani, Chief Executive Officer, Majid al Futtaim
Andrea Stairs, General Manager, Canada and Latin America, eBay
Ning Tang, Founder and CEO, CreditEase
Moderator: Phil Wahba, Senior Writer, Fortune
Photograph by Stuart Isett/Fortune
I came across this daft thing while going out to get a view of Dunnydeer. It was snarling and growling at me but its turning circle was nonexistent so it had to look over its shoulder as I went past.
024
Fortune Global Forum 2018
October 16th, 2018
Toronto, Canada
3:30 PM
THE NEW GLOBAL CONSUMER: DOING BUSINESS IN A DIGITAL ECONOMY
The digital economy is no longer part of the economy. It is the economy. How can traditional brick-and-mortar firms reinvent themselves, their supply chains, and their marketplaces to avoid the fate of brands once thought of as everlasting but which are now nonexistent? And how are new platforms – from e-commerce to shared services – rewriting the rules of the game? A conversation on how businesses can manage expectations for digitally empowered customers, and how technology is being used to enhance the customer experience.
Alain Bejjani, Chief Executive Officer, Majid al Futtaim
Andrea Stairs, General Manager, Canada and Latin America, eBay
Ning Tang, Founder and CEO, CreditEase
Moderator: Phil Wahba, Senior Writer, Fortune
Photograph by Stuart Isett/Fortune
024
Fortune Global Forum 2018
October 16th, 2018
Toronto, Canada
3:30 PM
THE NEW GLOBAL CONSUMER: DOING BUSINESS IN A DIGITAL ECONOMY
The digital economy is no longer part of the economy. It is the economy. How can traditional brick-and-mortar firms reinvent themselves, their supply chains, and their marketplaces to avoid the fate of brands once thought of as everlasting but which are now nonexistent? And how are new platforms – from e-commerce to shared services – rewriting the rules of the game? A conversation on how businesses can manage expectations for digitally empowered customers, and how technology is being used to enhance the customer experience.
Alain Bejjani, Chief Executive Officer, Majid al Futtaim
Andrea Stairs, General Manager, Canada and Latin America, eBay
Ning Tang, Founder and CEO, CreditEase
Moderator: Phil Wahba, Senior Writer, Fortune
Photograph by Stuart Isett/Fortune
Maine state capitol in Augusta. The only other time I've seen this building was way back in late summer 1996. The dome was green then. Coppery green, like the Statue of Liberty (as is given away in the collage picture of the capitol made of business cards posted here). It was recently repainted black, within the last few years.
It's a fairly straightforward and understated capitol which makes it enjoyable. The city of Augusta...an unusual place. A town of 20,000, there aren't many amenities here, and public transportation is nonexistent. I was incredibly lucky to get uber drivers, according to the one who drove me back to the bus station. Overall, Maine isn't a place to be if you aren't driving yourself around.
024
Fortune Global Forum 2018
October 16th, 2018
Toronto, Canada
3:30 PM
THE NEW GLOBAL CONSUMER: DOING BUSINESS IN A DIGITAL ECONOMY
The digital economy is no longer part of the economy. It is the economy. How can traditional brick-and-mortar firms reinvent themselves, their supply chains, and their marketplaces to avoid the fate of brands once thought of as everlasting but which are now nonexistent? And how are new platforms – from e-commerce to shared services – rewriting the rules of the game? A conversation on how businesses can manage expectations for digitally empowered customers, and how technology is being used to enhance the customer experience.
Alain Bejjani, Chief Executive Officer, Majid al Futtaim
Andrea Stairs, General Manager, Canada and Latin America, eBay
Ning Tang, Founder and CEO, CreditEase
Moderator: Phil Wahba, Senior Writer, Fortune
Photograph by Stuart Isett/Fortune
BOX DATE: 2013
MANUFACTURER: Mattel
DOLLS IN LINE: Frankie; Toralei; Abbey
BODY TYPE: 2008; molded dot panties; articulated elbows, wrists, & knees
HEAD MOLD: 2010 "Abbey"
PERSONAL FUN FACT: Every so often there is a rather ordinary, unremarkable doll who randomly captures my attention. For some reason, this Abbey doll always stood out to me. I fell in love with her the very first time I saw her at a Big Lots. The Coffin Bean line wasn't widely available in my area, so I was surprised the first time I encountered it. Sometime later, my sister and I discovered an amazing 50% off sale, when we went to pick up a book my sister wanted. All the Monster High dolls at Barnes and Noble were part of the offer, during the summer of 2014. We ended up returning there the next day, because my sister had messed up the release date of the aforementioned book. I believe we made a total of three trips to that particular store around that time frame. We dubbed this shopping excursion the "Barnes and Noble Bonanza." I think I got Abbey on the last trip...my sister did not know why I wanted her. But, after taking Abbey home, Colleen realized just how special she is! I can't quite pinpoint it, but something about this doll is fantastic. She may be a basic/slim box lady, but she is SO enchanting. She's one of our favorite Abbey dolls in my collection, even after ten years together. I love her almost nonexistent makeup and her wavy hair. She looks adorable in all sorts of different outfits. I have such a weakness and strong attachment for this doll, and I'm so glad I was able to get her, especially since she was on sale!!!
The Cotton Pygmy Goose or the Cotton Teal, Nettapus coromandelianus is a small perching duck which breeds in Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, southeast Asia and south to northern Australia.
Small examples are the smallest waterfowl on earth, at as little as 160 g (5.5 oz) and 26 cm (10.5 in). White predominates in this bird's plumage. Bill short, deep at base, and goose-like.
Male in breeding plumage is glossy blackish green crown, with white head, neck, and underparts; a prominent black collar and white wing-bar. Rounded head and short legs. In flight, the wings are green with a white band, making the male conspicuous even amongst the huge flying flocks of the Lesser Whistling Duck, which share the habitat. Female paler, without either black collar and only a narrow or nonexistent strip of white wing-bar. In non-breeding plumage (eclipse) male resembles female except for his white wing-bar. Flocks on water bodies (jheels), etc.
Call: A peculiar clucking, uttered in flight
It is largely resident, apart from dispersion in the wet season, but Chinese birds winter further south. It nests in tree holes, laying 8-15 eggs.
This is an abundant species in Asia, although the slightly larger Australian race appears to be declining in numbers.
Found on all still freshwater lakes (jheels), rain-filled ditches, inundated paddy fields, irrigation tanks, etc. Becomes very tame on village tanks wherever it is unmolested and has become inured to human proximity. Swift on the wing, and can dive creditably on occasion.
Its food is chiefly seeds and vegetable matter, especially water lilies; also insects, crustaceans, etc.
The nesting season is July to September (SW. monsoon). Its nest is a natural hollow in a tree-trunk standing in or near water, sometimes lined with grass, rubbish and feathers. It lays 6 to 12 eggs, which are ivory white.
Aquatic Bird House
Bronx Zoo New York
Domino (2016, Reissue)
This LP has been missing from my Pavement collection for way too long. Yes, I have had the Perfect Sound Forever and the other various 7"s that make up the bulk of the songs for a really long time. And sure, the CD version of this is actually the 2nd Pavement record I ever bought back in 1995 after being thoroughly blown away by Wowee Zowee (At the time I thought surely the indie one before they were even on Matador would be even cooler). But I never got around to buying this on LP.
Domino rereleased it a couple of years ago. It's on nice thick 180 gram vinyl and these terribly recorded songs have never sounded more terrible (and by that, I mean they sound great). The fidelity was never the point of any of these songs. They were recorded super early in the bands history and a recording budget was pretty much nonexistent at the time. Still, these songs are some of my favorite all of these years later.
"Box Elder" is a smash hit from the band's very first, self released 7" "Forklift" is a fuzzy bit of weirdness that really connected with me in high school and has been lodged in my brain ever since. "Debris Slide" is just perfect with an anthemic chorus that gets me singing along all these years later (even though it still sounds like they're saying "grease fire" and not "debris slide" to me). Maybe this compilation isn't Pavement's most polished or best outing, but there's something magical in these songs that has kept me coming back over and over again for the past twenty five years.
Pavement - "Box Elder":
www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_6NEePhHCA
Pavement - "Debris Slide":
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwHTMrZptG4
Pavement - "Forklift":
024
Fortune Global Forum 2018
October 16th, 2018
Toronto, Canada
3:30 PM
THE NEW GLOBAL CONSUMER: DOING BUSINESS IN A DIGITAL ECONOMY
The digital economy is no longer part of the economy. It is the economy. How can traditional brick-and-mortar firms reinvent themselves, their supply chains, and their marketplaces to avoid the fate of brands once thought of as everlasting but which are now nonexistent? And how are new platforms – from e-commerce to shared services – rewriting the rules of the game? A conversation on how businesses can manage expectations for digitally empowered customers, and how technology is being used to enhance the customer experience.
Alain Bejjani, Chief Executive Officer, Majid al Futtaim
Andrea Stairs, General Manager, Canada and Latin America, eBay
Ning Tang, Founder and CEO, CreditEase
Moderator: Phil Wahba, Senior Writer, Fortune
Photograph by Stuart Isett/Fortune
COTTON TEAL / COTTON PYGMY GOOSE :
Cotton Pygmy Goose or Cotton Teal (Nettapus coromandelianus) is a small perching duck which breeds in Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Southeast Asia and south to northern Australia. Small examples are the smallest waterfowl on earth, at as little as 160 g (5.5 oz) and 26 cm (10.5 in). White predominates in this bird's plumage. Bill short, deep at base, and goose-like.
Male in breeding plumage is glossy blackish green crown, with white head, neck, and under parts; a prominent black collar and white wing-bar. Rounded head and short legs. In flight, the wings are green with a white band, making the male conspicuous even amongst the huge flying flocks of the Lesser Whistling Duck, which share the habitat. Female paler, without either black collar and only a narrow or nonexistent strip of white wing-bar. In non-breeding plumage (eclipse) male resembles female except for his white wing-bar. Flocks on water bodies (jheels), etc.
Photography : Aditya roy
artefacts from the Spanish presence in the Philippines (the Spanish East Indies) and engagement in trade with China.
Spanish interest in the (Spanish East Indies) region was primarily focused on its use as a base for trade with East Asia, and large parts of the territory were under loose or nonexistent Spanish control.
Museo Naval, Madrid
29 November 2012
camera Panasonic DMC ZS8
P1140799
Here's another paring chisel, this time from the small and nowadays nonexistent Finnish maker Billnäs Bruk. It was a very nice find, not because the steel is so special but because Billnäs chisels are very seldom seen. This one is a good performer and works well enough but the steel is clearly not on par with the Berg chisels.
Vintage West Bend metal salt and pepper shakers. Pre-owned, well used and vintage 1950's. The graphics are faded on the pepper and almost nonexistent on the salt. There are lots of scratches and scuffs. The top is missing paint. The bottom reads West Bend Made in the USA. They measure approximately 4 inches high and 2.5 inches in diameter.
First attempt at star trails. I'd hoped to use a different location.... but this is "only a test... if this had been an actual photo you would be instructed to tune into NGS"... or some such thing. It is a few hundred stacked photos. Skies were certainly dark and light pollution was nonexistent except for the lil campervan.Taken near McCartney Creek, Moses Coulee, Wa Aug 1 11
024
Fortune Global Forum 2018
October 16th, 2018
Toronto, Canada
3:30 PM
THE NEW GLOBAL CONSUMER: DOING BUSINESS IN A DIGITAL ECONOMY
The digital economy is no longer part of the economy. It is the economy. How can traditional brick-and-mortar firms reinvent themselves, their supply chains, and their marketplaces to avoid the fate of brands once thought of as everlasting but which are now nonexistent? And how are new platforms – from e-commerce to shared services – rewriting the rules of the game? A conversation on how businesses can manage expectations for digitally empowered customers, and how technology is being used to enhance the customer experience.
Alain Bejjani, Chief Executive Officer, Majid al Futtaim
Andrea Stairs, General Manager, Canada and Latin America, eBay
Ning Tang, Founder and CEO, CreditEase
Moderator: Phil Wahba, Senior Writer, Fortune
Photograph by Stuart Isett/Fortune