Photo credit: Harris & Ewing

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Photo Credit: Somenath Mukhopadhyay

Location: Varanasi

Chair Powell answers reporters' questions at the FOMC press conference on October 29, 2025. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Chair Powell answers reporters' questions at the FOMC press conference on July 26, 2023.

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

www.wsj.com/articles/the-air-has-come-out-of-the-dollar-3...

The Air Has Come Out of the Dollar

Decadelong rally leaves U.S. currency as much as 15% overvalued, Goldman Sachs says

May 1, 2023 7:02 am

The U.S. economy no longer looks so exceptional. That is bad news for the dollar.

The greenback has fallen about 8.6% from a peak in September, as tracked by the WSJ Dollar Index, and is experiencing its worst start to the year since 2018.

www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/economist-says-stock-mark...

Economist Says Stock Market Will Witness Largest Crash Since 1929 As U.S. Dollar Explodes

Macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg expects a massive blow-off top for equities in the coming months, saying recently that the stock market could likely head to one of the biggest crashes in history.

In a Twitter post on Saturday, Zeberg said that stocks are likely on their way up, while the dollar index (DXY) — which pits the USD against a basket of foreign currencies — is likely on its way down.

www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-money-supply-is-doing-...

U.S. Money Supply Is Doing Something It Hasn't Done in 90 Years, and It May Signal a Big Move for Stocks

M2 money supply hasn't done this since 1933, and investors should take note

Though there are a couple of money supply measures, the two most investors and economists focus on are M1 and M2. M1 factors in the cash and coins currently in circulation, along with things like traveler's checks. It's easily accessible money that can be spent immediately. Meanwhile, M2 takes into account everything in M1, as well as savings accounts, money market funds, and certificates of deposit (CD) of less than $100,000. In other words, it's money people can get to, but it takes a little extra work.

This latter measure, M2, is where we're seeing something truly historic at the moment.

U.S. M2 money supply through March has fallen 4.1% on a year-over-year basis.

Declining money supply in combination with above-average inflation is generally bad news for the U.S. economy. If the cost for goods and services keeps climbing at an above-average pace, and there are fewer dollars and coins in circulation to pay for these goods and services, something typically breaks, leading to a period of deflation and an economic downturn.

This has only happened 4 previous times in last 150 years.

Each time a Depression with double-digit unemployment rates followed, 1870s, 1921, and the Great Depression and one panic (1893), along with correlative spikes in the U.S. unemployment rate. 😬

Looking beyond M2, there are a couple of clues that economic weakness may be brewing.

Perhaps the biggest "clue" can be found in the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's March meeting. The 12-member body that oversees our nation's monetary policy notes that a mild recession is baked into their outlook for later this year. It pretty much doesn't get more direct than that.

In addition to FOMC commentary, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's recession probability indicator offers pretty compelling evidence that a recession may be coming.

The NY Fed's tool analyzes the spread (difference in yield) between the three-month and 10-year Treasury bond. When the yield curve inverts, it's sometimes an ominous sign for the economy and Wall Street. The current yield-curve inversion between the three-month and 10-year note is the largest since 1981. Not surprisingly, the NY Fed is forecasting a 57.77% chance of a recession over the next 12 months. That's the highest probability of a recession in more than four decades.

finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumer-confidence-dips-lowest...

US Consumer Confidence Dips to Lowest Since July as Outlook Dims

(Bloomberg) -- US consumer confidence dropped this month to the lowest since July on more pessimistic views about the economic outlook, even as current conditions improved.

The Conference Board’s index decreased in April to 101.3 from 104 in March, data out Tuesday showed. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 104.

A measure of expectations — which reflects consumers’ six-month outlook — fell to 68.1, also the lowest since July. However, the group’s gauge of current conditions advanced to 151.1.

“Consumers became more pessimistic about the outlook for both business conditions and labor markets,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economics at the Conference Board.

“While consumers’ relatively favorable assessment of the current business environment improved somewhat in April, their expectations fell and remain below the level which often signals a recession looming in the short term.”

The figures suggest consumers are turning sour on the economy amid expectations that the labor market will soon begin to soften. Layoffs are swirling and companies are posting fewer job openings, and those trends will accelerate in the event of a recession.

While more consumers said jobs were “plentiful” in April and fewer reported that jobs were hard to get, their expectations for six months from now deteriorated. Only 12.5% expect more jobs to be available in the coming months, the lowest in nearly seven years.

The difference between the current “plentiful” and “hard-to-get” measures — a metric watched closely by economists to gauge the tightness of the labor market — ticked up after a sizable drop in March.

Moreover, inflation is still widespread and running well above the Federal Reserve’s target. And financial stress from several bank failures is making it harder for consumers to get loans, which could depress spending and sentiment further.

“Respondents like what they are currently seeing and think that their own finances will be OK but have a generalized concern that the broader economy may weaken,” Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander US Capital Markets LLC, said in a note. “That seems better than if they were seeing actual negative developments or were worried about their own finances.”

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

“April’s drop in consumer confidence could be an initial response to a tighter supply of credit, a consequence of recent banking turmoil that’s adding to economic headwinds.”

— Eliza Winger, economist

Buying plans for cars, homes and major appliances all fell. Fewer consumers reported intentions to take a vacation in the next six months.

A separate report Tuesday showed sales of new US homes increased in March to the highest level in a year, suggesting an easing in mortgage rates is helping the housing market find some footing.

The median inflation rate seen over the next 12 months edged lower, according to the Conference Board. Data out Friday is anticipated to show the Fed’s preferred core inflation metrics continued to rise at a solid clip last month.

Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com

Chair Powell answers reporters' questions at the FOMC press conference on October 29, 2025. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Tree planting at Fawkner being conducted by Friends of Merri Creek. 82 people turned up and registered. Lots of hands to do the planting, and then we enjoyed a halal barbecue and a talk by Shaun from snakehandler.com.au on what snakes you might encounter, tips on first aid and some general common sense. Beautiful weather with broken clouds, then sunshine. It was an excellent turnout with lots of families and kids.

Fort McHenry, Baltimore, MD

www.nps.gov/fomc/index.htm

Camera - Nikon D7000

Lens - Tamron 18-270

Tree planting at Fawkner being conducted by Friends of Merri Creek. 82 people turned up and registered. Lots of hands to do the planting, and then we enjoyed a halal barbecue and a talk by Shaun from snakehandler.com.au on what snakes you might encounter, tips on first aid and some general common sense. Beautiful weather with broken clouds, then sunshine. It was an excellent turnout with lots of families and kids.

Photo Credit: Kushal Gangopadhyay

Location: Kolkata

The 7 members of the Board of Governors and 12 Reserve Bank presidents attend the October 28-29, 2025, FOMC meeting and participate in FOMC deliberations.

The FOMC committee meets and sets U.S. monetary policy at meetings held at least 8 times each year.

FOMC meetings, calendars, statements, and minutes are available here.  www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Please note: Confidential documents seen in this photo have been obscured.

Photo Credit: Vivek Muthuramalingam

Location: Bangalore

Chair Powell answers reporters' questions at the FOMC press conference on July 30, 2025. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Chair Powell answers reporters' questions at the FOMC press conference on January 29, 2025. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

"The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.

Economic growth has moderated from its quite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices." - from FOMC decision Aug. 8, 2006

1:3.5/75

Give me that 599 then you can walk away...

Fort McHenry was the site of the famous bombardment by the British during the War of 1812. During the bombardment, Francis Scott Key was a prisoner aboard a British ship and watched the action from there. He was inspired to write our national anthem when he saw the American flag still waving over the fort at dawn.

"Oh, say can you see by the dawn’s early light

What so proudly we hailed at the twilight’s last gleaming?

Whose broad stripes and bright stars thru the perilous fight,

O’er the ramparts we watched were so gallantly streaming?

And the rocket’s red glare, the bombs bursting in air,

Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there.

Oh, say does that star-spangled banner yet wave

O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave?"

www.nps.gov/fomc/index.htm

Tree planting at Fawkner being conducted by Friends of Merri Creek. 82 people turned up and registered. Lots of hands to do the planting, and then we enjoyed a halal barbecue and a talk by Shaun from snakehandler.com.au on what snakes you might encounter, tips on first aid and some general common sense. Beautiful weather with broken clouds, then sunshine. It was an excellent turnout with lots of families and kids.

Tree planting at Fawkner being conducted by Friends of Merri Creek. 82 people turned up and registered. Lots of hands to do the planting, and then we enjoyed a halal barbecue and a talk by Shaun from snakehandler.com.au on what snakes you might encounter, tips on first aid and some general common sense. Beautiful weather with broken clouds, then sunshine. It was an excellent turnout with lots of families and kids.

NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 16: Traders work on of the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) September 16, 2008 in New York City. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met today and announced they will hold the federal funds rate at 2.0 percent, despite the recent turmoil among investment banks on Wall Street. U.S. stocks were mixed following yesterday's Dow Jones Industrial Average plunge of 4.4% or 504 points, being the worst single day loss since the terrorist attacks of September 2001. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Tree planting at Fawkner being conducted by Friends of Merri Creek. 82 people turned up and registered. Lots of hands to do the planting, and then we enjoyed a halal barbecue and a talk by Shaun from snakehandler.com.au on what snakes you might encounter, tips on first aid and some general common sense. Beautiful weather with broken clouds, then sunshine. It was an excellent turnout with lots of families and kids.

30th Annual Toy Run, 2010, San Diego CA

Tree planting at Fawkner being conducted by Friends of Merri Creek. 82 people turned up and registered. Lots of hands to do the planting, and then we enjoyed a halal barbecue and a talk by Shaun from snakehandler.com.au on what snakes you might encounter, tips on first aid and some general common sense. Beautiful weather with broken clouds, then sunshine. It was an excellent turnout with lots of families and kids.

Tree planting at Fawkner being conducted by Friends of Merri Creek. 82 people turned up and registered. Lots of hands to do the planting, and then we enjoyed a halal barbecue and a talk by Shaun from snakehandler.com.au on what snakes you might encounter, tips on first aid and some general common sense. Beautiful weather with broken clouds, then sunshine. It was an excellent turnout with lots of families and kids.

Chair Powell answers reporters' questions at the FOMC press conference on September 17, 2025.

Tree planting at Fawkner being conducted by Friends of Merri Creek. 82 people turned up and registered. Lots of hands to do the planting, and then we enjoyed a halal barbecue and a talk by Shaun from snakehandler.com.au on what snakes you might encounter, tips on first aid and some general common sense. Beautiful weather with broken clouds, then sunshine. It was an excellent turnout with lots of families and kids.

Tree planting at Fawkner being conducted by Friends of Merri Creek. 82 people turned up and registered. Lots of hands to do the planting, and then we enjoyed a halal barbecue and a talk by Shaun from snakehandler.com.au on what snakes you might encounter, tips on first aid and some general common sense. Beautiful weather with broken clouds, then sunshine. It was an excellent turnout with lots of families and kids.

Chair Powell answers reporters' questions at the FOMC press conference on June 18, 2025. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Tree planting at Fawkner being conducted by Friends of Merri Creek. 82 people turned up and registered. Lots of hands to do the planting, and then we enjoyed a halal barbecue and a talk by Shaun from snakehandler.com.au on what snakes you might encounter, tips on first aid and some general common sense. Beautiful weather with broken clouds, then sunshine. It was an excellent turnout with lots of families and kids.

Chair Powell answers reporters' questions at the FOMC press conference on December 18, 2024. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm 

Dow Jones Industrial Average15,608.20

DOW CLOSE PLUS +108.66+0.70%

Initial U.S. jobless claims fall by 19,000 to 326,000 todays umemployment #'s

Yesterday's FOMC statement did not signal any official policy change, but it did note persistently low inflation as a concern, which some analysts interpreted as a dovish signal. Some are holding out for more clarity from Friday's non-farm payroll data. thats pre market 8.30am new york et

NASDAQ Composite Index3,663.41+37.04+1.02%

S&P 500 Index1,702.89+17.16+1.02%

Global Dow Realtime USD2,254.88+21.70+0.97%

Dow Jones Utility Average...506.96+2.99+0.59%

NYSE Composite Index9,654.88+96.05+1.01%

NYSE MKT Composite Index2,358.66+2.27+0.10%

Russell 2000 Index (Nasdaq)1,058.75+13.49+1.29%

PHLX Semiconductor Index483.07+5.29+1.11%

Gold - Electronic (COMEX)...1,311.40-1.60-0.12%

CBOE 30 Year Treasury Bond...37.53+1.07+2.94%

CBOE 10 Year Treasury Note...27.02+1.09+4.20%

4:22p

Stocks leap to record; S&P 500 tops 1,700

4:19p

AIG Q2 net income $1.84 vs. $1.33

4:18p

Kraft Foods Q2 revs $4.74 bln vs. $4.79 bln

4:18p

LinkedIn shares swing to 4% gain from 7% loss AH

4:18p

Kraft Foods Q2 net EPS $1.38 vs. $1.02

4:14p

LinkedIn earnings, sales top forecasts

4:12p

Medical marijuana legalized in Illinois

4:11p

Spotlight on economy: Wall Street on alert for upside surprise to jobs data

4:11p

LinkedIn shares pare after-hours drop, now down 1%

4:09p

Kraft shares rise 1.5% following results

4:08p

Who’s hiring in the U.S. and what they pay

4:08p

LinkedIn adjusted eps equals 38 cents

4:08p

LinkedIn net income rises to $3.7 million

4:08p

LinkedIn reports sales of $363.7 million

4:07p

LinkedIn shares drop 7% after quarterly results

4:03p

Ex-Goldman trader Tourre misled investors: jury

4:02p

Nasdaq Composite gains 1.4% to 3,675.74

4:02p

Dow industrials climb 0.8% to 15,626.56

4:01p

U.S. stock rally has S&P 500 above 1,700

4:01p

S&P 500 index rises 1.3% to 1,706.82

4:00p

Stocks end with strong gains after upbeat data

4:00p

S&P 500 closes above 1,700 for the first time

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Chair Powell answers reporters' questions at the FOMC press conference on January 29, 2025. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Central bank communications have evolved substantially since Sir Montagu Norman, the governor of the Bank of England from 1921-1944, reportedly took as his personal motto, “Never explain, never excuse.” More recently, in the U.S., the Federal Reserve has expanded its communications to include a statement after every meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), quarterly press conferences by the chair, and quarterly projections of the economy and the path of interest rates by each member of the FOMC.

Other central banks have done much the same, believing that monetary policy is more effective when the public and financial markets understand the central bank’s thinking and that openness is essential to preserving central bank independence in democratic societies. Yet the Fed is often criticized for being unclear and opaque, and there is no doubt that the Fed’s audiences are often confused.

On November 30, the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy and the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins examined the purpose and quality of Fed communications from the perspectives of academics, former Fed officials, Wall Street Fed watchers, and those in the press who cover the Fed. What is and what should be the goal of Fed communications? What does it do well? Not so well?

Photo by Paul Morigi