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The use of RCTs has a long history in economics, but has recently greatly expanded, particularly in economic development. Like other econometric methods, RCTs are often informative, but like other econometric methods, they have problems and pitfalls that are not always fully understood. Common misunderstandings include balance, standard errors and inference, and blinding. We argue that the concepts of internal and external validity as commonly used are unhelpful. We focus on how to use the results of RCTs, arguing that simple replication is rarely useful, but rather that the results of RCTs need to be combined with other knowledge and evidence, and used as part of a serious economic analysis. Examples are provided along the way.
Dean Scrimgeour, Associate Professor of Economics, instructs Applied Econometrics in Lawrence Hall October 20, 2020.
Business Lunch - John Fraser, Secretary to the Treasurer - 2015 Australian Conference of Economics, Queensland University of Technology-Gardens Point Campus, Brisbane, July 09, 2015. Picture-Patrick Hamilton / Economic Society of Australia QLD 2015
This is the college in Oxford that's closer to my home.
A postgraduate college specialising in the social sciences, particularly Economics, Politics, and Sociology. It was founded in 1937.
Nuffield College pioneered the development of cost benefit analysis for developing countries; and it has made a major contribution to the methodology of econometrics.
GUJARATI, Damodar N.; PORTER, Dawn C.. Econometria básica. [Basic econometrics, 5th ed. (inglês)]. Tradução de Denise Durante, Mônica Rosemberg e Maria Lúcia G. L. Rosa, Revisão técnica de Claudio D. Shikida, Ari Francisco de Araújo Júnior e Márcio Antônio Salvato. 5 ed. reimpr. Porto Alegre: AMGH, 2012. 924 p. Inclui bibliografia e índice; il. tab. quad. graf.; 28x22x4cm. ISBN 9788563308320.
Palavras-chave: ECONOMETRIA; ECONOMIA MATEMATICA.
CDU 330.43 / G969e / 5 ed. reimpr. / 2012
Dean Scrimgeour, Associate Professor of Economics, instructs Applied Econometrics in Lawrence Hall October 20, 2020.
Off to econometrics class...
dress: Marshall's
vest: thrifted (originally Montgomery Wards-- remember that store?)
boots: f21 clearance
owl magnifying necklace: delia's
Amorphica Design Research Office
2005 Institute for Advanced Architecture of Catalonia (IAAC)
Publication
Self-Sufficient Housing
This two-day conference focused on several foundational topics in econometrics. For each area, the presentations surveyed the main results, extensions, applications, and potential directions for further research. The discussions provided feedback on the presentations, with the goal of producing effective chapters on the topics, to be included in the next volume of the Handbook of Econometrics.
Estudio Econométrico Rio - Amorphica
Aaron Gutierrez
Georgina Muñoz
Roberto Gutiérrez
Gabriel Alejos
Aldo Cano
Mariana Gutiérrez
Hector Martinez
ok, ok, my professor's kids aren't *that* smart at ages 6, 8 and 13. but his Harris students are. we couldn't resist.
Business Lunch - John Fraser, Secretary to the Treasurer - 2015 Australian Conference of Economics, Queensland University of Technology-Gardens Point Campus, Brisbane, July 09, 2015. Picture-Patrick Hamilton / Economic Society of Australia QLD 2015
"I used this rudimentary computer to estimate the trajectory of the AIDS pandemic"
When I first went to Harvard Kennedy School in September 1986, I was given a Compaq portable. It was a computer the size of a small suitcase with a tiny monochrome screen and – by today’s standards - not much processing power. I had never had a computer before and I was entranced by the possibilities it offered. One of my early courses was on econometric modelling techniques, and for my coursework I had to choose a topic on which to apply the statistical tools I was learning. Rather than select an economic variable, such as unemployment, exchange rates or commodity prices, as most of my classmates did, I chose AIDS. I was sharing a house with two close friends who were gay, and the flow of news of friends who were getting sick, and the uncertainty and fear about what was happening, dominated our conversations every evening. So I hunted for what little data was available at that point, and I used this rudimentary computer and my even more rudimentary statistical modelling skills to estimate the trajectory of the pandemic and the potential impact of different interventions. Given the limitations of the computer, and my basic grasp of the modelling techniques, what would now take an afternoon took several months. I don’t recall any of my specific conclusions, and I am sure they were wrong anyway, but I do remember being deeply shocked by the implications of exponential epidemiological growth. I shared the results with my roommates, but I was somewhat uneasy in doing so since I didn’t want to make them even more scared than they already were. I was worried that my crude modelling exaggerated the threat. Little did I know then that now – 35 years later – we would still be battling HIV/AIDS, and that over that period, a shocking total of more than 32 million people would die. Even less did I know that I myself would end up being so directly involved in the fight against HIV/AIDS.
Peter Sands is Executive Director at the Global Fund.
Photo: Wikimedia Commons, Dmitry Brant
Ostap Okhrin is a professor for econometrics and statistics at TU Dresden
Title of his talk: "How statistics supports our intuition." – More info: tedxdresden.com/en/portfolio/speakers-2018/ostap-okhrin-e...
Adapted from a caricature of Hansen that circulated at the time of the Nobel prize announcement, this design was prominently featured on t-shirts sold to students and colleagues during a December 2-3, 2013 conference recognizing the professor's recent Nobel prize in economics.
Machine learning techniques are being actively pursued in the private sector and have been widely adopted in fields such as computational biology and computer vision. However, the role of machine learning in economics has so far been limited. This workshop was organized to provide a forum to discuss how ideas and techniques from machine learning could be applied to economic questions. The workshop will bring together researchers from computer science, statistics, econometrics and applied economics to foster interactions and discuss different perspectives on statistical learning and its potential impact on economics.
The workshop began with overview talks on machine learning and statistics by researchers from outside of economics. Three following sessions were organized around the themes of causal inference, prediction, and networks and complex data. Each session included the presentation of papers in economics that make use of machine learning methodology, followed by a discussion by researchers from multiple communities.
Dr Ric Simes - 2015 Australian Conference of Economics, Queensland University of Technology-Gardens Point Campus, Brisbane, July 09, 2015. Picture-Patrick Hamilton / Economic Society of Australia QLD 2015
European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society, hosted by the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics
Estudio Econométrico Rio - Amorphica
Aaron Gutierrez
Georgina Muñoz
Roberto Gutiérrez
Gabriel Alejos
Aldo Cano
Mariana Gutiérrez
Hector Martinez
DDB UK has announced the appointment of a scientist in residence (SiR), a first in the advertising sector. Dr Daniel Müllensiefen, Lecturer in the Department of Psychology at Goldsmiths, University of London, joins the agency as SiR from September.
Dr Müllensiefen, who will be based at the DDB offices for several hours each week, will be offering expert input on a wide range of subjects including the evaluation of client campaigns.
DDB UK Head of Planning Sarah Watson said “As far as we’re aware, we are the first ad-agency to do something like this. It’s culturally a good fit, as Goldsmiths are at the creative end of academia while DDB have a heritage of intellectual rigour within advertising, and it’s the right time for us to be forming links with a university.
“For too long in our world the people who ‘think’ and the people who ‘do’ have stayed at arm’s length from each other. The result is that we have lots of practice but not much theory. It doesn’t happen like this in other industries – both Google and Apple, for example, have research relationships with universities – and it shouldn’t happen in ours. We are all increasingly realising that disciplines such as behavioural economics have huge practical benefits for us and we want to build an understanding of cognitive processes into all aspects of our planning. As an industry we have much to gain from learning how advertising really works, and more and more research is pointing to the power of emotions within communications.”
As a forensic musicologist, Dr Müllensiefen has a special interest in the function and importance of music in advertising. His work combines elements of psychology, computing, musicology and statistics. In collaboration with BBC 6 Music and the British Academy, he is currently involved in a major research project involving ‘earworms’ - the technical term for those random fragments of tunes that become trapped inside our heads. With companies keen to tap into the values and emotions associated with their products, musical imagery and ‘sonic branding’ are now critical elements of many campaigns.
Dr Müllensiefen is also co-founder of the Goldsmiths MSc course, Music Mind and Brain, a unique programme which focuses on the biological and cognitive aspects of musical behaviour.
“Daniel will be running an education programme for both DBB staff and clients,” said Sarah Watson. “Goldsmiths students will also provide a valuable research resource for the agency.
It will help inform everything that we do, from strategy and research through to evaluation. We believe this reflects the real depth and authority that we are now able to offer as an agency. We’re hopeful that it will prompt wider debate and we’re planning a dedicated blog to invite input from across industry.”
This initiative is the latest in a long line of planning innovations at DBB including animatics, pre-testing of rough ads, in-house research, econometrics and ethnography.
Lars Peter Hansen, 2013 Nobel laureate, is a world-class researcher in economic dynamics, econometrics and uncertainty. In this talk, taking place at the Chicago Booth Hong Kong Center, he discussed the impact of uncertainty on markets and the economy.
Machine learning techniques are being actively pursued in the private sector and have been widely adopted in fields such as computational biology and computer vision. However, the role of machine learning in economics has so far been limited. This workshop was organized to provide a forum to discuss how ideas and techniques from machine learning could be applied to economic questions. The workshop will bring together researchers from computer science, statistics, econometrics and applied economics to foster interactions and discuss different perspectives on statistical learning and its potential impact on economics.
The workshop began with overview talks on machine learning and statistics by researchers from outside of economics. Three following sessions were organized around the themes of causal inference, prediction, and networks and complex data. Each session included the presentation of papers in economics that make use of machine learning methodology, followed by a discussion by researchers from multiple communities.
Ostap Okhrin is a professor for econometrics and statistics at TU Dresden
Title of his talk: "How statistics supports our intuition." – More info: tedxdresden.com/en/portfolio/speakers-2018/ostap-okhrin-e...
European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society, hosted by the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics
Cervezartistas Brew House
Aaron Gutierrez
Georgina Muñoz
Roberto Gutiérrez
Gabriel Alejos
Aldo Cano
Mariana Gutiérrez
Héctor Martinez
European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society, hosted by the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics
European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society, hosted by the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics
Machine learning techniques are being actively pursued in the private sector and have been widely adopted in fields such as computational biology and computer vision. However, the role of machine learning in economics has so far been limited. This workshop was organized to provide a forum to discuss how ideas and techniques from machine learning could be applied to economic questions. The workshop will bring together researchers from computer science, statistics, econometrics and applied economics to foster interactions and discuss different perspectives on statistical learning and its potential impact on economics.
The workshop began with overview talks on machine learning and statistics by researchers from outside of economics. Three following sessions were organized around the themes of causal inference, prediction, and networks and complex data. Each session included the presentation of papers in economics that make use of machine learning methodology, followed by a discussion by researchers from multiple communities.