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Eskom - they're rolling blackouts, dammit by Axel Bührmann

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//Since 1997 the ANC government has used various methods to fend-off criticism. These have run from attacking motive to bullying, obfuscation, bullshitting, lying, and outright denial. Over time civil society and media became inured to these tactics. So it was something of a welcome surprise when senior government officials - including the president and his deputy - started admitting responsibility for South Africa's energy shortages.

The basic line pushed by President Thabo Mbeki (and others) was that government underestimated the likely rate of economic growth and wrongly ignored Eskom's warnings that it needed to start building new capacity. For this they were very sorry.

These apologies have not silenced criticism, but they have been very effective in drawing attention away from where it should have been focused. This is known, in other fields, as misdirection. A Wikipedia entry notes how "The magician choreographs his actions so that even the critical and observant spectators are likely to look where the magician wants them to. More importantly, they do not look where they should not." One way of doing this is through movement, whereby "A larger action covers a smaller action."

Similarly, it is to the government's advantage to admit to failing to approve the building of new generating capacity on time. At worst they can be accused of ideological prevarication. Meanwhile, our gaze is shifted away from places where the ANC would prefer it not to wander. One of these is the way in which the ANC funding vehicle - Chancellor House - has been cut-in on massive contracts for the building of the Bravo and Madupi power stations. The other relates to the way in which the Eskom's racial obsessions were responsible for last week's massive black outs.//

www.politicsweb.co.za/iservice/eskom-the-real-cause-of-th...

Stage 12 - Eskom Imprisons the sun by Axel Bührmann

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Sugar - not so sweet, my love by Axel Bührmann

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//Glucose is often the first painkiller given to newborns, but how should South Africa’s critically ill sugar industry be treated?

In two decades, the country’s annual sugar production has shrunk by nearly 25%, from 2,75 million to 2,1 million tons. Over the same period, we have lost almost 60% of our sugar cane farmers, and other sugar industry jobs are estimated to have declined by 45%.

As in the rest of the world, health concerns and modern lifestyles are leading to stagnation in sugar demand. Demand for sugar in the Southern African Customs Union has dropped from 1,65 million tons to 1,25 million tons a year, forcing South Africa to increase its exports to the global market, where prices are below the local cost of production. Given the increase in exports, the industry now has to absorb losses of approximately R2 billion per year.

The pace of decay, moreover, is accelerating. In 2020, two local sugar mills closed within weeks of each other, and the sector is bleeding jobs.

This is the reality that Trix Trikam, executive director of the South African Sugar Association (SASA), and the rest of the sugar industry, face on a daily basis.

The situation is driven by three main factors:

Distorted global prices

These prices, which are below South Africa’s cost of production, are driven by sales of surpluses from various markets, particularly India, where surplus production and prices are a function of export incentives and extensive subsidy programmes.

Eswatini’s competitive advantage

Eswatini lost its preferential EU export quotas in September 2017. Subsequently, the tariff-free access to the South African market and the relative cost advantage that producers of that country have enjoyed over their South African competitors have enabled them to price their sugar below that of local producers and thus take significant share. According to the US Department of Agriculture, Eswatini exported 331 273t of sugar to South Africa in the 2020/21 marketing season.

The ‘sugar tax’

Government introduced the Health Promotion Levy (HPL), a tax on sugary drinks, in April 2018. “In the first year that the sugar tax was implemented, 250 000t of sales to the beverage sector were lost, with the [sugar] industry experiencing a loss of at least R1,2 billion in revenue,” says Trikam. A total of 9 000 farmers and farmworkers lost their jobs in that year, according to Sifiso Mhlaba, SASA’s national market executive. Concurrently, 558 jobs were lost in the sugar-processing industry, which includes milling and refining.

“The latest figures suggest that South Africa has lost about 16 000 jobs in total since the HPL was introduced,” Mhlaba told a group of journalists during a recent SASA media tour*.

To make matters even worse, the industry was hit hard by the civil unrest that took place earlier this year in KwaZulu-Natal. During that week, according to Trikam, the halt in production at 10 mills cost the industry R100 million. In addition, 2 580t of sugar were stolen when two warehouses were looted, and over 500 000ha of sugar cane were destroyed by arsonists.

A global challenge

Mhlaba explains that the HPL is but one part of the industry’s cluster headache. “The entire world sugar market is distorted to the point where prices don’t reflect the production cost of sugar.”

As a result, adds Trikam, the US$680/t (about R10 400/t) tariff paid on exported sugar has proved insufficient to deter other countries from dumping their product on the South African market.

In 2020, South Africa exported 800 000t of sugar at a loss. The only export able to attract a value close to that of the local market was the 23 000t of sugar exported to the US duty-free, according to Geran Ranganthan, export manager at SASA.

The prerequisite for deregulation is a free market, he stresses, but this is something that the international cane industry definitely is not; rather, it is rife with government interference.

“The global sugar export market is a dumping market. Essentially, every country exporting sugar is doing so at a loss, because producers can earn more in their own country than they would on the global market.”

During the previous season (April 2020 to March 2021), the average global price of exported sugar was between US$200/t and US$300/t (around R3 050/t to R4 500/t), according to Ranganthan. This was less than any country’s sugar producers were able to obtain in their own country. However, in India, for example, the government paid sugar producers an export subsidy of $120/t (R1 830/t).

“This levelled the playing field only for Indian producers, because they were suddenly able to sell sugar globally at around the same price they received locally.”

On the demand side, he adds, there has been a general decline worldwide this season, as China and other big consumers in the Far East stockpiled sugar when the prices were low.

The fundamental dynamics of the industry are also changing, with consumers becoming more health-conscious and thus limiting their sugar intake.

This has led global leaders such as Brazil and India to develop their bioethanol industries, as it is relatively easy to switch between sugar destined for human consumption and sugar for fuel production.

Butterfly effect

An apathetic attitude towards the sugar industry’s situation is not an option, emphasises Trikam, “because a million rural South Africans are dependent on it for their livelihoods”. He adds that the industry directly employs 65 000 people, has 21 776 sugar cane growers on its register, and indirectly employs 270 000 people.

The sugar cane industry’s annual turnover is R18 billion. Although it contributes only 0,84% of South Africa’s total GDP and 6% of the country’s total agricultural output, the sector is indispensable to the economies of Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal.

“Sugar cane is the largest contributor to the agricultural GDP in KwaZulu-Natal (44% in 2016), and the second-largest in Mpumalanga (40% in the same year),” explains Mhlaba.

Trikam warns that if the industry were to fail, “numerous South African towns and rural villages would crumble, as they’re either partly or entirely dependent on the sugar industry for their survival”. Even Durban would suffer.

So, why not simply deregulate the industry? In Trikam’s opinion, this would be a disaster: “There might be those who believe that deregulation will lead to the sugar price coming down, but that’s nonsense. Jobs will be lost if the sugar cane industry is deregulated. It will have a massive socio-economic impact.”

In his opinion, government also recognises that deregulation is ill-advised.

New ways to save the sector

In essence, South Africa’s sugar industry is backed into a corner. Deregulation would mean its derailment, so government help is needed. And this is where the Sugarcane Value Chain Master Plan comes into play.

“The industry is currently in the ICU and we’re trying to stabilise its decline before we move it to a general ward where we can begin growing it again,” says Trikam.

The future will see the industry face unmanaged decline, managed shrinkage, or restructuring and diversification in order to grow. The last of these is the most appealing to all parties involved, says Trikam.

“The industry has formed public and private partnerships in order to restructure itself and find alternative usages for sugar.”

Mhlaba says that government and the private sector have also committed themselves to advocating for South African sugar over imported products, and this matter has been given the green light by competition authorities.

“The 2020/21 production year was the first full season of the master plan,” he says.

“Although there’s a bit of debate around the impact of COVID-19, we can already see that local sugar sales have grown. Between 2019 and 2021, there was a 40% increase in local sales on a retail level, and direct sales [to the public] were up by 32%.”

SASA has also seen growth from the industrial market, where sectors buy in sugar to produce other products such as soft drinks.

With regard to sugar taxation, government has promised the industry that it will keep the HPL constant for the next three years. The HPL is currently fixed at 2,1c/g of sugar content that exceeds 4g/100mℓ. The first 4g/100mℓ are not levied.

In the meantime, industry experts are in frequent discussion with the Industrial Development Corporation to find viable alternative uses for sugar cane. Those identified so far are:

Bioethanol for fuel blending (subject to a viable economic model);

Biojet fuel;

Potable, industrial and pharmaceutical-grade bioethanol;

Biomass/co-generated electricity;

Biogas;

No-and low-kilojoule sweeteners; and

Specialty chemicals and bio-based polymers for use in various sectors, such as plastics, packaging, motor manufacturing and textiles.

-- Source: Farmer's Weekly

Stormclouds over Eskom by Axel Bührmann

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Thought extinct: Metro policeman directing Gauteng traffic by Axel Bührmann

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Impossible? Spotted in the wild yesterday, during loadshedding: can you identify it? I'm told it resembles the now entirely extinct Vigilum Homo Populi, but to me it looks more like the all-pervasive Coptus Corruptum or possibly - at the very best - the Metro Miseri that nowadays both infest Gauteng's highways and byways.

On point: Gauteng Metro Traffic Officer by Axel Bührmann

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There have been scurrilous rumours that this is a fake photograph; there's no way a Gauteng metro officer will direct traffic in the sweltering heat during yet another rolling blackout. Nay my good fellow and/or lass, etc - let me assure you this is the real deal, and I saw it with my own very eyeball.

Eskom by Axel Bührmann

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Another ANC gift: 2022 by Axel Bührmann

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A broken power grid

Thought extinct: Metro policeman directing Gauteng traffic by Axel Bührmann

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Impossible? Spotted in the wild yesterday, during loadshedding: can you identify it? I'm told it resembles the now entirely extinct Vigilum Homo Populi, but to me it looks more like the all-pervasive Coptus Corruptum or possibly - at the very best - the Metro Miseri that nowadays both infest Gauteng's highways and byways.

Eskom Chaos by Axel Bührmann

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Thought extinct: Metro policeman directing Gauteng traffic by Axel Bührmann

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Impossible? Spotted in the wild yesterday, during loadshedding: can you identify it? I'm told it resembles the now entirely extinct Vigilum Homo Populi, but to me it looks more like the all-pervasive Coptus Corruptum or possibly - at the very best - the Metro Miseri that nowadays both infest Gauteng's highways and byways.

Eskom's Rolling Disaster by Axel Bührmann

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Thought extinct: Metro policeman directing Gauteng traffic by Axel Bührmann

Impossible? Spotted in the wild yesterday, during loadshedding: can you identify it? I'm told it resembles the now entirely extinct Vigilum Homo Populi, but to me it looks more like the all-pervasive Coptus Corruptum or possibly - at the very best - the Metro Miseri that nowadays both infest Gauteng's highways and byways.

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Storm Clouds Over Eskom by Axel Bührmann

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CAPE TOWN: Semigration! by Axel Bührmann

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Andrew Harding: A fond farewell to an uneasy South Africa.

Andrew Harding is a British journalist and author. He has been living and working abroad as a foreign correspondent for the past 3 decades. Since 1994 he has been working for BBC News.

He began his career in the former Soviet Union, initially as a freelancer. After a decade living in Moscow and Tbilisi, he moved to Nairobi, then Singapore, Bangkok and Johannesburg. He is married with three sons.

As he prepares to leave South Africa, the BBC's Andrew Harding reflects on his years in a country of increasingly stark contrasts - and on the struggle to find the right balance in reporting on such a complex nation. ( BBC. UK - Africa correspondent, 26 August 2023)

Spring is almost here in Johannesburg.

Cold nights. Clear, bone-dry days. The honks and squawks of ibises and louries - shuffling silhouettes in the leafless trees.

After 15 years living in this beautiful, rough-and-tumble city, I'm about to leave.

The packers have been busy at our home just over the steep ridge that divides the old "downtown" from the tree-clogged northern suburbs.

"Shame," said the woman who came to inspect her removal team's speedy work. She shook her head. "So many families are leaving here these days."

She's not entirely wrong.

Concern about South Africa's struggling infrastructure, its weakening currency, and general economic malaise has prompted many wealthier families to consider emigrating or - as it's known here - "semi-grating" to the more prosperous city of Cape Town.

Last week, I was standing with my adorable, ever-so-slightly thuggish labrador at the vet's when an older lady came in, clutching something small and yappy.

Overhearing my conversation about kennels and crates and extravagant shipping costs, she announced to the room that she'd leave "this wretched country" too - in a heartbeat.

"But who can afford to these days?" she remarked.

It's now almost 30 years since the end of racial apartheid and the chaotic but near-miraculous birth of South Africa's young democracy. It's a shock to realise that I've been here for half of that journey.

I've always shied away from drawing grand or apocalyptic conclusions about where this - or any country on this continent - is heading.

South Africa, in particular, is a place of such extremes. There's such energy here, and resilience, and an enduring generosity of spirit.

At the same time, this is still a frighteningly violent nation, now also warped by corruption, and plagued by hunger.

How do you begin to boil all that down into a neat prediction?

Still, it is becoming more challenging to sustain the belief that South Africa - this charming, troubled, rainbow nation - will simply continue to muddle, endlessly, through.

The unemployment rate here is comfortably the highest in the world. At 42%. Let that sink in.

Key infrastructure systems - water, rail transport, electricity - are in dire straits. Schools too. And this is - officially, and notoriously - the most unequal country in the world.

Just up the road from our house, near the suburb of Rosebank, there's a big road junction. The traffic lights - they call them "robots" here - don't work much these days, because of the endless power cuts.

Instead, young men in ragged clothes try to direct the lines of expensive cars in return for the occasional coin.

It sort of works, like so much here. But this kind of patchwork resilience is hardly something to boast about.

Last week a woman and her three children were reportedly found dead in their tiny shack close to the Indian Ocean in the Eastern Cape. The police suspect that poverty and debt drove the mother to poison her kids before taking her own life.

The incident barely made the news.

Earlier this year, between trips to report on the war in Ukraine, I went for a drink with a couple of contacts. Older, wealthy businessmen who have close ties to the governing African National Congress.

We met on the terrace of their immaculate golf club, with a view north - towards the lumpy hills that hide most of the world's platinum deposits.

We argued about Ukraine, Putin, and Nato expansion - about the men's enduring nostalgia for the Soviet Union and its support for the anti-apartheid struggle.

Then one of the men looked out, beyond his beer and the putting on the 18th green, towards the glinting tin roofs of an impoverished and fast-growing shanty town - "informal settlement" is the term used here.

"Someday soon those people are going to come for us," he said, predicting an uprising far greater than the protests that engulfed several big cities in South Africa in 2021. "Things can't go on like this," he warned.

I sensed guilt in his voice. And sure enough, he admitted that his once beloved ANC - a party that helped liberate South Africa - had failed the challenges of democracy.

"The crooks have taken over," he said. "It should be put out of its misery - other leaders, other parties, should have come to power years ago."

There are elections here next year. And right now, opposition parties are trying to overcome their differences and put up a united front. There's a good chance they'll do well. But then again, South Africa has heard that before. Many young, disillusioned people are simply choosing not to vote.

This can still be a profoundly inspiring country. But increasingly, it feels like the inspiration is mostly seen in the rear-view mirror - in looking back to past glories and past heroes. Nelson Mandela, Walter Sisulu, Oliver Tambo. This is a nation lulled by a sense of its own exceptionalism. It has history of overcoming impossible odds.

It's part of South Africa's enduring charm. But charm can be unhelpful. Nostalgia isn't creating any jobs.

After the packers had loaded the last box into the shipping container outside my home, we stood together in the sunshine. "You must come back!" said one of the men. "We'll fix our problems here. We'll even fix the load-shedding." That's another South African euphemism - for power cuts.

We laughed - half-hopefully - and shook hands, and I said: "Yes. I'll be back soon."

The mushroom theory by Axel Bührmann

Are you as baffled by the Eskom fiasco as we are?

Who's to blame? And no, you mustn't think it's over. Are thieves to blame for this national crisis?

Then again, and I quote, "The load-shedding is no more. See the report from Johannesburg’s Saturday Star, the fourth item below. The load-shedding episode has every appearance of being a boss’s strike, a fraudulent Enron-style holding-to-ransom, or in other words, domestic terrorism. It was purely punitive. It was extortion. It was undone by the fact that too many people, and especially Eskom’s own employees, could see it for the scam it was. The fact that the equipment could not take the treatment was part of the crooks’ bad luck. Now there is no load-shedding, the sky has not fallen in, and we can all see that it was phoney from the start, and that the top management of Eskom are all liars. They should be fired. We cannot trust them."

More lies and double-speak. A few weeks ago, we had an almost insurmountable crisis. And now?

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ANC-sponsored rolling blackouts by Axel Bührmann

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Eskom denuded, with the help of the likes of Group 5, Stefanutti, etc etc etc — with big brother ANC controlling the holes in the purse.

Eskom brings mystery into South African nights by Axel Bührmann

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Don't say the ANC and its departments and NGOs aren't bringing a little romance into your lives.

:-P

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