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The EUR/CHF pair rose up and gave a good buying opportunity. We expect this pattern to unfold towards up. So, upside potential is present in this pair which represent a good buy trade. Expect some sideways market action and then move to the upside in Eur/chf currency pair.
The short term S&P 500 Elliott Wave analysis chart shows how we are counting the 5 waves within the larger degree 5th wave on the medium term S&P 500 Elliott Wave analysis chart shown above.
A spike in USD/CHF currency pair. As you can see a Flag pole in the posted chart of 1 hour. We expect one more price move to the up side in this pattern.
The medium term S&P 500 Elliott Wave analysis chart shows how we are counting the 5 waves from the July 2010 low.
Head and shoulder pattern in the daily chart of USD/JPY currency pair. A good buy trade in USD/JPY pair.
It took me a bit of patience to keep on just waiting with no buy/sell
position. I was very much puzzled by this 4th wave move, and I felt my
face brightened when I finally started to see what EURUSD was trying
to draw on the chart.
It was a product of the hesitation from both USD sellers and buyers
that lead this complex 4th wave followed by the leading diagonal as I
labeled in the chart above. Probably USD sellers had initial
hesitation because USD already had been beaten so bad that sudden
strong rebound may be over due. USD buyers were also very hesitant the
equity market eventually found its way up above DOW 10000.
I have no idea what is exactly happening (who does?), but I can see
some kind of initial hesitation in the price action, and now USD
sellers gaining more momentum, which is EURUSD positive, probably also
helped by higher oil price, not to mention Apple's profit surge.
Anyways, I am seeing the wedge shaped trend up as the leading
diagonal. This is the 1st wave of impulsive wave up, so I would not be
surprised if the retracing down is as hard as 1.4860 or lower. It may
be supported at 1.4922 before the strong 3rd wave emerges. In any
case, there should be a relatively clear a-b-c zigzag wave ahead of
us, and it should not break 1.4826 line down if this count is correct.
I am mostly seeing the timing to enter a long position, riding on the
3rd wave up, but depending on tonight's price action and timing, I may
enter to a "scalping" mode, and do quick short selling on the blue c
wave towards the end of black 2 wave before establishing the long
position.
I am still careful, and being very selective. Need to pick the low
hanging fruits in this October. Seeking a trade of very good
risk-reward ratio.
Looking back this week, passing the opportunity of almost 400pips
trade was certainly not a good experience, but there wasn't a valid
entry point based on my current trading rule or life style: I do not
buy/sell break b/c I have not come up with good way to measure and set
appropriate stop loss line in that case. Risk and max loss have to be
clearly defined in every single trade I make. Anyways life goes on,
and so does market.
We can say wave 1 (from 1.5063 to 1.4683) is over, and almost
completing A wave up. I would expect corrective B wave down, then
impulsive C wave up.
So my plan is to enter long at the end of B wave down. The price level
I would be entering is not very clear yet, but should be between
1.4722 and 1.4777, and I would aim this long position to carry us up
to 1.4917 ~ 1.4981. The stop loss order, of course, will be set at
1.4675, or just below the end of purple .1 wave. This makes max loss
of about 47 to 98 pips, and expected gain to be 140 to 259 pips. It's
a great risk reward ratio.
After this long trade is done, I will enter short position, possibly
from 1.4917~1.4981 level.
I started to think Elliott Wave is especially flexible and powerful in
short term trading, as we often have to stop, erase the old and
no-longer-valid counting, and re-count. It takes so much time in the
mid to long term investment before the wave count is proven right or
long, and we cannot take advantage of the law of large numbers in
one's life time.
I was watching EURUSD price action towards the end of the week, and
virtually nothing happened, and the price was in the rage of 1.4840
and 1.4970. If it had broken lower, I would have kept my bearish
stance, but now that it in the range, it may be that we are in 4th
wave of some degree.
So, this chart is my re-counting with bullish bets.
I am still in the conservative mode after my careless short position
move costed 4.28% of my capital. So I will wait long enough for this
potential 4th wave to be over, and new trend up is confirmed before
placing any bets.
Today, DOW went over 10000, and EURUSD touched 1.4860 in Asian time.
Looking at the EURUSD chart, we see upward ending diagonal showing
EURUSD is struggling to make new highs. Ending diagonal is usually a
reversal sign of the market, and we should refrain from jumping into
long position from here on. How about going short? This time, we are
expecting the end of big Elliott wave cycles (multi-monthly), and
up-thrown price action, the price break higher the trend line at the
very end of the up trend, may happen, and we should be very warned
before deciding whether to short it.
In my opinion, best is to sit tight and wait to see what market will show us...
In fact, I gave away a bit more than the gain I earned the night
before by recklessly shorting EURUSD after see the downward price
action from the blue a. I misinterpreted this as the beginning of a
new trend, and shorted. Even worse, I shorted with the maximum of what
Risk Control Spreadsheet allowed me to, which was risking 4.28% of
the capital. Bad decision. At most, I should have shorted with very
small experimental lot size.
Over-confidence and hero trading is the second last thing you want to
do (very last thing is of course, what we call Gambler's ruin). I paid
the fee for this lesson. I started to feel this is the blind spot for
Elliott wave traders: we tend to predict the reversal point of the
market after counting the wave successfully, and take the opposite
position against the market before confirming the reversal of the
trend. Even if we know it's coming, it's always best to wait to
confirm the trend has actually reversed.
My fund was up 14.24% in September. Some reason I kept thinking the
fund growth was negative in October. Today, I checked my account, and
found it's actually 0.5% up. What a relief, and now I should really
sit back, and preserve the capital for the big day.
This is just a quick warning. I saw the chart this morning, and my
EURUSD long position from 1.4990 was trailing-stopped with a very
small profit. The price is clearly following the ending diagonal
pattern towards the Fibonacci resistance line of 1.5069 that I
mentioned a couple of days ago.
At least EURUSD should pull back to 1.4900 after finishing this ending
diagonal possibly at 1.5069. If this is really the end of bigger
Elliott wave cycles, we will see a new EURUSD down trend from here
towards the end of this year.
So, I keep my position flat, and watch what happens.
I caught up in work and did not know about India's huge (200 ton!)
purchase of gold from IMF until in the evening.
I posted that I was very bullish gold after Elliott wave analysis, and
now gold price had a clean break of new high price. If this impulse
wave is real, the spot price should never (!) come back down lower
than $1050, and it will aim $1200 in March 2010 and $1350 to $1400 in
the later 2010.
I am gong to buy gold first thing in the morning tomorrow.
I am still off the surf board. Just watching the tide. Good news is
wave has been coming back and forth as I anticipated.
If my count is right, EURUSD will bounce back up from 1.4785 level to
1.4927~1.4966 level as labeled with blue underlined ii. And this is
where I will go short.
I really miss the game. But I am patiently waiting for the sure thing.
Once again, I was convinced that Elliott wave principle is the great
predictor as I was warned to get out of the market, especially on the
EURUSD long side.
Some people even got luckier by jumping in, and shorted EURUSD at the
end of E (=1.5063, and remember it was just a few pips away from the
Fib resistance I mentioned in the previous posts), and took a 100+pips
ride down the very first down trend of purple .1. I chose not to jump
in the .1 wave because it may have been fake. Besides, we will have a
long way (2500pips?) to go down if this is really the beginning of the
multi-monthly bear market wave for EURUSD. So why hustle and risk your
capital?
As the NY market closes today, I think black 3 wave have just ended,
and black 4 wave started to bounce EURUSD up for a bit. If it bounces
up to 1.4879 level, which is at the end of .4 wave on 10/20 in my
count, it will leave black 5 wave a nice distance, which is as long as
the black 1 wave (see the grey arrow). And this will coincide with the
end point of the previous black 4 wave on 10/18 (= 1.4826). For now, I
assume this is how purple .1 will look like, and it should be followed
by purple .2 wave upwards.
As far as I have observed, most wave 2 retracements reaches 61.8% of
the length of wave 1, and often we witness 70.7%, 78.6% or longer
retracement, but not exceeding the starting point of wave 1.
So I will look forward to establishing EURUSD short position averaging
around 1.4994 later this week.
The fact I missed the short opportunity on October 25th high started
to cost me. EURUSD bounced back to 1.49 level as I posted previously,
but I am not sure if this is the top. I attempted to long for a
scalping, but the retracement was a bit deeper than I had expected,
and I was stopped out with 51pip loss.
Now I am seeing two possible counts as shown in the chart, and looks
like post ECB reaction will decide the fate.
I cannot keep looking at the chart around the critical time. So I will
do the following:
If 1.4800 breaks, I will short with 1.465 stop loss.
If EURUSD retraces back to 1.4969, I will short at 1.4965. Stop at 1.5070.
My loss cut is getting frequent. So, I will keep my position size
small, protecting the capital.
So, entering long position at 1.4700 was not very optimal, but it
barely held 1.4640 stop line. Whew. It technically touched the 2nd
wave territory, topping at 1.4648. That made me very cautious in this
trade, and decided to take the first half profit early at 1.4760. I
also moved my stop order to 1.4685 which is just below the end of 1st
wave of the smaller degree of the current 5th wave (=1.4694). Mr Todd
Gordon of Forex.com, who I follow on Twitter and his famous Strategy
of the Day, entered at 1.4700 and I merely followed him on this trade
up until now because I did not have much time to analyze. But I
usually wait a bit longer before entering the 5th wave riding. So, I
could have entered at least down at 1.4680, and that would have been
significantly low risk and I could have had more units than my current
position now. Anyways, it's good to be back on rhythm, and I will
cautiously increase the bet from the next trade according to my Risk
Control Spread Sheet.
Just realized some mistake in my previous Elliott Wave count, and here
is a quick update. I do not have time to write much now. I will
carefully re-evaluation this chart, and may make further correction.
Anyways, I have not initiated any position. I am still flat.
I am holding EURUSD short position from 1.4860. But the price action
has been choppy through out the week, and it may take some time to
label the wave with confidence.
Gold on the other hand, marked $1100, and it is exactly on the course
of my analysis. It should be the end of black III wave in the chart
above, and we will see correction IV wave towards December, and that
is when I will buy for mid term investment.
This may be the bottom of the USD, and EURUSD may free fall.
(Chart corrected on 6:30pm EDT to include multi-month Elliott wave label = b)
…and yes. “Sep 22, 09 high” is not true, and it’s “Sep 22, 08 high”
As per the previous post, I started to like the second scenario, not
because of the price level, but for the shape of the corrective wave.
It looks like zigzag to me, and it may be the 2nd wave.
I am buying small at 1.4985. Stop 1.4900.
This is my current count of EURUSD. I would say 1.49 is sell zone. But
I am taking a break from trading as you read in the previous post.
The US dollar index spiked today, but I would be careful unless it
breaks 76.50 level. I won't be surprised it further goes down to
73.97. It may take a few weeks before USD strength really kicks in.
#Embraer #Elliottwave (4h) actualización 20-07
EMBRAER SA SPON ADS EACH REP 4 ORD SHSNYSE:ERJ
gonzalobouzas
Fundamental que pueda quebrar la zona de los 6.42 dado que rompe la tl proveniente del máximo de onda 1 primaria o (A), quiebra la resistencia de corto y se vuelve a meter en el canal. Arriba de los 6.50 ya confirmamos el movimiento alcista.
Lo más importante es que no pierda el soporte de los 5.89 dado que si sucede continuaríamos con el desarrollo correctivo.
En síntesis, a controlar, la zona de juego va desde los 6.42 (resistencia) a 5.89 (soporte). En mi caso espero definición para poder tomar una posición acorde.
En caso de quebrar al alza los 6.42 hay que evaluar si ERJ tiene la suficiente fuerza para cerrar el GAP que se abrió en la zona que va desde los 11.72 a 10.26. Zona que va entre el 38 y 50% de retroceso sobre todo el movimiento bajista previo. mercadodigital24.com/ideas-publicadas/embraer-elliottwave...