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Does LESS rain in the fall mean MORE rain overall? There is NO correlation at all.

I think many locals are wondering whether less rain in the fall means more rain overall. It's a nice thought in this dry autumn of a drought year.

 

I collected data about San Marcos Pass rainfall from the Santa Barbara County Hydrology website. I got the data into Excel, and did quick and dirty spreadsheet. Then I collected the data for Sep-Nov rainfall vs. total rainfall. I'm sorry to say that there is no correlation at all. The graph looks like a shotgun blast. Some years with no early rain have been wet, and some have been dry. I added a trendline, but it doesn't mean anything.

 

This weather year will be what it is, wet or dry. Be that as it may, there's always something interesting happening in the woods. I just hope it's mushrooms and wildflowers and not oak trees dying. (San Marcos Pass, 20 November 2013)

 

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Uploaded on November 21, 2013