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ROME, ITALY - APRIL 14: Nicolò Zaniolo of AS Roma celebrates after scoring goal 3-0 during the UEFA Conference League Quarter Final Leg Two match between AS Roma and FK Bodø/Glimt at Olimpico Stadium on April 14, 2022 in Rome, Italy. (Photo by Silvia Lore/Getty Images)
BUCHAREST, ROMANIA - JUNE 21: Christoph Baumgartner of Austria celebrates with David Alaba and Aleksandar Dragovic after scoring their side's first goal during the UEFA Euro 2020 Championship Group C match between Ukraine and Austria at National Arena on June 21, 2021 in Bucharest, Romania. (Photo by Mihai Barbu - Pool/Getty Images)
David Stibbs, stepfather of fallen Marine Lance Cpl. Evenor C. Herrera, weeps over his son's casket . Herrera was killed last week in Iraq when a bomb exploded during combat. (Preston Utley/Vail Daily)
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - MAY 17: Manuel Akanji of Manchester City scores the team's third goal during the UEFA Champions League semi-final second leg match between Manchester City FC and Real Madrid at Etihad Stadium on May 17, 2023 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 12: Che Adams of Southampton celebrates after scoring their team's first goal during the Premier League match between Manchester United and Southampton at Old Trafford on February 12, 2022 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)
DORTMUND, GERMANY - FEBRUARY 15: Karim Adeyemi of Borussia Dortmund goes around Kepa Arrizabalaga of Chelsea to score the teams first goal during the UEFA Champions League round of 16 leg one match between Borussia Dortmund and Chelsea FC at Signal Iduna Park on February 15, 2023 in Dortmund, Germany. (Photo by Stuart Franklin/Getty Images)
MUNICH, GERMANY - JUNE 23: Andras Schaefer of Hungary scores their side's second goal during the UEFA Euro 2020 Championship Group F match between Germany and Hungary at Allianz Arena on June 23, 2021 in Munich, Germany. (Photo by Alex Grimm - UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - MARCH 07: Marco Reus of Borussia Dortmund is challenged by Wesley Fofana of Chelsea during the UEFA Champions League round of 16 leg two match between Chelsea FC and Borussia Dortmund at Stamford Bridge on March 07, 2023 in London, England. (Photo by Clive Rose/Getty Images)
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - JANUARY 14: Bruno Fernandes of Manchester United celebrates with teammates Antony and Casemiro after scoring the team's first goal during the Premier League match between Manchester United and Manchester City at Old Trafford on January 14, 2023 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 19: Iman speaks onstage at the 2023 Groundbreaker Awards honoring Adair Curtis & Jason Bolden, Iman, and Derek Blasberg on April 19, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Gary Gershoff/Getty Images for Housing Works)
LONDON, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 27: Martin Odegaard of Arsenal celebrates scoring his team's first goal during the Premier League match between Arsenal and Brighton & Hove Albion at the Emirates Stadium on December 27, 2025 in London, England. (Photo by Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 21: Morgan Rogers of Aston Villa scores his team's second goal past Stefan Ortega of Manchester City during the Premier League match between Aston Villa FC and Manchester City FC at Villa Park on December 21, 2024 in Birmingham, England. (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
MADRID, SPAIN - JULY 16: Real Madrid new signing, Kylian Mbappe is unveiled at Estadio Santiago Bernabeu on July 16, 2024 in Madrid, Spain. (Photo by David Ramos/Getty Images)
BAKU, AZERBAIJAN - JUNE 20: Xherdan Shaqiri of Switzerland scores their side's second goal during the UEFA Euro 2020 Championship Group A match between Switzerland and Turkey at Baku Olimpiya Stadionu on June 20, 2021 in Baku, Azerbaijan. (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 27: (L - R) Diogo Jota, Caoimhin Kelleher, Naby Keita, Fabinho, Ibrahima Konate, Divock Origi and Diogo Jota of Liverpool celebrate after victory in the Carabao Cup Final match between Chelsea and Liverpool at Wembley Stadium on February 27, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
PAMPLONA, SPAIN - FEBRUARY 19: Luis Suarez of Club Atletico de Madrid celebrates after scoring his team's second goal during the LaLiga Santander match between CA Osasuna and Club Atletico de Madrid at Estadio El Sadar on February 19, 2022 in Pamplona, Spain. (Photo by Juan Manuel Serrano Arce/Getty Images)
ROME, ITALY - JUNE 20: Matteo Pessina of Italy celebrates after scoring their side's first goal during the UEFA Euro 2020 Championship Group A match between Italy and Wales at Olimpico Stadium on June 20, 2021 in Rome, Italy. (Photo by Alberto Lingria - Pool/Getty Images)
LEICESTER, ENGLAND - JULY 30: Darwin Nunez of Liverpool celebrates as they bite their winners medal after the final whistle of The FA Community Shield between Manchester City and Liverpool FC at The King Power Stadium on July 30, 2022 in Leicester, England. (Photo by Michael Regan - The FA/The FA via Getty Images)
A recent joint statement by US President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi “expressed deep concern about the deteriorating situation in Myanmar,” and called for a constructive dialogue to aid the country’s transition toward an inclusive federal democratic system. Unfortunately, the US-led sanctions policy has undercut this goal and made a bad situation worse.
While inflicting misery on Myanmar’s ordinary citizens, Western sanctions have left the ruling military elites relatively unscathed, giving the junta little incentive to loosen its political grip. The primary beneficiary has been China, which has been allowed to expand its foothold in a country that it values as a strategic gateway to the Indian Ocean and an important source of natural resources.
This development has amplified regional security challenges. For example, Chinese military personnel are now helping to build a listening post on Myanmar’s Great Coco Island, which lies just north of India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the home to the Indian military’s only tri-service command. Once operational, this new spy station will likely assist China’s maritime surveillance of India, including by monitoring nuclear submarine movements and tracking tests of missiles that often splash down in the Bay of Bengal.
In a way, history is repeating itself. Starting in the late 1980s, previous US-led sanctions paved the way for China to become Myanmar’s dominant trading partner and investor. That sanctions regime lasted until 2012, when Barack Obama heralded a new US policy and became the first US president to visit Myanmar. In 2015, Myanmar elected its first civilian-led government, ending decades of military dictatorship.
In February 2021, however, the military staged a coup and detained civilian leaders such as Aung San Suu Kyi, prompting the Biden administration to re-impose wide-ranging sanctions. Importantly, this reversal of Myanmar’s democratic project was precipitated by earlier targeted US measures against the military leadership – including the commander-in-chief, Min Aung Hlaing – for rampant human-rights abuses against Rohingya Muslims that forced most to flee to Bangladesh. After President Donald Trump’s administration slapped sanctions on Hlaing and other top commanders in July 2019, the generals lost any incentive to sustain Myanmar’s democratization. A year and a half later, they had toppled the civilian government, after denouncing the results of the November 2020 national election as fraudulent.
The lesson for Western policymakers should be clear. Individually sanctioning foreign officials – which is essentially a symbolic gesture – can seriously hamper US diplomacy and cause unintended consequences. (Indeed, China continues to rebuff the Biden administration’s requests for direct military talks as a means of protesting US sanctions on General Li Shangfu, who became China’s defense minister in March.)
America’s longstanding lack of ties with Myanmar’s nationalist military – the only functioning institution in a culturally and ethnically diverse society – has been an enduring weakness of its policy toward the country. Owing to this limitation, Suu Kyi achieved the status of a virtual saint in the Western imagination, only for the feted Nobel Peace Prize winner’s reputation to fall precipitously after she defended her country’s Rohingya policy against accusations of genocide.
Now that the junta leaders are sanctioned and the civilian leaders are under detention, the US has little leverage to influence political developments in Myanmar. Instead, America and its allies have ratcheted up the sanctions and lent support to the armed resistance to military rule. To that end, a Myanmar-specific provision added to the 2023 US National Defense Authorization Act authorizes “non-lethal assistance” for anti-regime armed groups, including the People’s Defense Force, a notional army established by the shadow National Unity Government. Biden now has considerable latitude to aid Myanmar’s anti-junta insurrection, just as Obama did when he provided “non-lethal assistance,” in the form of battlefield support equipment, to Ukrainian forces and Syrian rebels.
But such interventions are likely to plunge Myanmar into greater disorder and poverty without advancing US interests. Even in the unlikely event that the disparate groups behind the armed insurrection manage to overthrow the junta, Myanmar would not re-emerge as a democracy. Rather, it would become a Libya-style failed state and a bane to regional security. It would also remain a proxy battleground between Western powers and China and Russia. A United Nations report estimates that, since the coup, Myanmar has imported at least $1 billion worth of weapons and dual-use goods, principally from China and Russia.
China’s rapidly growing footprint in Myanmar is America’s strategic loss. But it doesn’t have to be this way. Given its strategic location, Myanmar could be co-opted into America’s Indo-Pacific strategy through a gradual easing of sanctions in response to positive moves by the junta.
Given that sanctions naturally close the door to dialogue and influence, they should never be employed as the first tool of foreign policy. After the Thai army chief seized power in a coup in 2014, the US wisely eschewed sanctions and opted for engagement, which helped safeguard Thailand’s thriving civil society. That strategy eventually led to the general’s defeat in the recent national election.
Restoring democracy in Myanmar can be achieved only gradually by engaging with the country’s military rulers and offering them incentives to reverse course. Sanctions without engagement have never worked. If Biden can closely engage with China – the world’s largest, strongest, and longest-surviving autocracy – including by sending the CIA director, the secretary of state, and secretary of the treasury to Beijing in quick succession, he should at least open lines of communication with Myanmar’s junta.
Just as the military-monarchy alliance has long shaped political developments in Thailand, where the generals have seized power 12 times over the last nine decades, Myanmar’s armed forces have traditionally asserted themselves as the country’s most powerful political player. That was evident when they retained their power under the 2008 constitution that helped bring Suu Kyi to power. Without a shift in US policy toward gradual engagement with the junta, Myanmar will remain the playground of great powers, with no hope for a new democratic opening.
MUNICH, GERMANY - JUNE 23: Andras Schaefer of Hungary celebrates after scoring their side's second goal during the UEFA Euro 2020 Championship Group F match between Germany and Hungary at Allianz Arena on June 23, 2021 in Munich, Germany. (Photo by Matthias Hangst/Getty Images)
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - MAY 17: Julian Alvarez of Manchester City scores the team's fourth goal during the UEFA Champions League semi-final second leg match between Manchester City FC and Real Madrid at Etihad Stadium on May 17, 2023 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)
LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - AUGUST 06: Demarai Gray of Everton is challenged by Mason Mount of Chelsea during the Premier League match between Everton FC and Chelsea FC at Goodison Park on August 06, 2022 in Liverpool, England. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)
LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - MAY 19: Frank Lampard, Manager of Everton celebrates their sides third goal scored by Dominic Calvert-Lewin (not pictured) during the Premier League match between Everton and Crystal Palace at Goodison Park on May 19, 2022 in Liverpool, England. (Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images)
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - JANUARY 19: Erling Haaland of Manchester City reacts after Emerson of Tottenham Hotspur (not pictured) scores their sides second goal during the Premier League match between Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur at Etihad Stadium on January 19, 2023 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - APRIL 23: Bukayo Saka of Arsenal celebrates after scoring their side's second goal during the Premier League match between Arsenal and Manchester United at Emirates Stadium on April 23, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - AUGUST 06: Jorginho of Chelsea scores their side's first goal from a penalty, after Ben Chilwell of Chelsea ( not pictured ) is brought down inside the box by Abdoulaye Doucoure of Everton ( not pictured ), during the Premier League match between Everton FC and Chelsea FC at Goodison Park on August 06, 2022 in Liverpool, England. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)
MOSCOW - MAY 21: Cristiano Ronaldo of Manchester United celebrates after scoring the opening goal during the UEFA Champions League Final match between Manchester United and Chelsea at the Luzhniki Stadium on May 21, 2008 in Moscow, Russia. (Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images)
LUDWIGSHAFEN, GERMANY - MAY 05: Former German President Roman Herzog addresses guests during an official birthday reception to former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl at the Pfalzbau on May 5, 2010 in Ludwigshafen, Germany. Kohl celebrated his 80th birthday on April 3, 2010. (Photo by Andreas Rentz/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Roman Herzog
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 19: Cindy McCain participates in the session "A Seat at the Table" onstage during the Clinton Global Initiative September 2023 Meeting at New York Hilton Midtown on September 19, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Noam Galai/Getty Images for Clinton Global Initiative)
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - JANUARY 14: Marcus Rashford of Manchester United goes down with an injury during the Premier League match between Manchester United and Manchester City at Old Trafford on January 14, 2023 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 06: Darwin Nunez of Liverpool celebrates scoring their side's first goal with teammates Harvey Elliott during the Premier League match between Fulham FC and Liverpool FC at Craven Cottage on August 06, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - APRIL 26: John Stones of Manchester City scores a goal to make it 2-0 during the Premier League match between Manchester City and Arsenal FC at Etihad Stadium on April 26, 2023 in Manchester, United Kingdom. (Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - JULY 24: Actress Shay Mitchell attends the American Eagle Outfitters "Live Your Life" campaign launch at the American Eagle Times Square Store on July 24, 2012 in New York City. (Photo by John Lamparski/WireImage)
LAS VEGAS, NV - MAY 22: Singers Britney Spears (L) and Rihanna perform onstage during the 2011 Billboard Music Awards at the MGM Grand Garden Arena May 22, 2011 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images for ABC)
LONDON, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 15: Martin Odegaard of Arsenal looks dejected during the Premier League match between Arsenal FC and Manchester City at Emirates Stadium on February 15, 2023 in London, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 11: Leandro Trossard of Arsenal celebrates after scoring the team's first goal during the Premier League match between Arsenal FC and Brentford FC at Emirates Stadium on February 11, 2023 in London, England. (Photo by Clive Mason/Getty Images)
SEVILLE, SPAIN - JUNE 23: Martin Dubravka of Slovakia saves a penalty from Alvaro Morata of Spain during the UEFA Euro 2020 Championship Group E match between Slovakia and Spain at Estadio La Cartuja on June 23, 2021 in Seville, Spain. (Photo by David Ramos/Getty Images)
BRIGHTON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 29: Curtis Jones of Liverpool reacts as Kaoru Mitoma of Brighton & Hove Albion (obscured) celebrates after scoring the team's second goal during the Emirates FA Cup Fourth Round match between Brighton & Hove Albion and Liverpool FC at Amex Stadium on January 29, 2023 in Brighton, England. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CA - MARCH 18: Actress Stana Katic attends the Los Angeles premiere of HBO's "Game Of Thrones" Season 3 at TCL Chinese Theatre on March 18, 2013 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Mark Sullivan/WireImage)
LISBON, PORTUGAL - APRIL 05: Mohamed Salah of Liverpool is replaced by Diogo Jota during the UEFA Champions League Quarter Final Leg One match between SL Benfica and Liverpool FC at Estadio da Luz on April 5, 2022 in Lisbon, Portugal. (Photo by Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images)