$EURUSD Not so impulsive. I am in doubt and flat.

This morning, I got mostly right in riding the wave from 1.4650 to

1.4817 though I bought too early at 1.4700 and the wave barely made to

1.4817 being qualified as impulsive wave: the 4th wave of smaller

degree technically touched the territory of the 2nd wave at 1.4648. I

got cautious after seeing this touch and go, and took profit early

around 1.4670. I was up 50(1 unit)+65 (1 unit)=115pips.

 

It was a right move up to this moment, considering that there was a

diverging nightmare after this (mostly due to post ECB noise). The

price made itself to 1.4817 only after a fairly big confusing swing

down.

 

It was this diversion that made me do a stupid move. I shorted around

1.4780 with 1.4805 stop, and of course I got stopped. And I did this

mistake again though for this second one, I had a better justification

in trading. At least for the first mistake, I have to take the blame.

I should never be a hero to jump in A wave.

 

This good lesson cost me almost the gain I got in the first winning

trade, and left me with a few pips. With the Rational Move Risk

Control Spreadsheet as a reminder to make the bet smaller and trade

less often in this situation, I stopped the trading for the day.

 

Now I am analyzing more with no trade.

 

Mr. Todd Gordon labeled the top of today's price as the end of purple

.3 wave which as 240min~120min time frame in his labeling system. I

found this timeframe definition a bit confusing because this does not

mean, the wave ends within 240min ~ 120min. It rather means the wave

is visible in 240min ~ 120min chart as far as I observed in his past

presentation. In that regard, I am in fact labeling this top as purple

.1 as shown in the image above. Mr. Gordon's count is shown in

parentheses.

 

I also doubt it was purple .3 wave because by the rule of Elliott wave

principle, the 3rd wave has to be further subdivided into one

wholesome impulsive wave of lesser degree. Try breaking down the

purple .3 wave shown with a thick green line in the image, and break

down the 3rd wave of this .3. At lest for me, it's not possible to

count it as impulsive because, one way or another, 4th wave goes into

the territory of 2nd wave...

 

So, I am still skeptical to the idea that 1.4817 was the top of the

3rd wave. I think it was an ugly .1 wave.

 

Any case, the future price action will tell us whether I was right. If

it was in fact .1 wave as I counted, the pull down of .2 wave should

be a zigzag wave, and price rather goes down to 0.618~0.786

retracement (see black zigzag arrow). If Mr Gordon was right, the next

price action is complex 4th wave and it should stay above 1.4648 at

worst.

 

Because of these uncertainty in my mind, I am very cautious with this

market, and sit back with no position initiated.

 

As Mr. Gordon always says, "Protect your assets." and "Let the market

come to you."

Done