'Monty Hall' experiment

Aim:

To test if the ‘Monty Hall Problem’ does actually work when put into practice.

The ‘Monty Hall Problem’ is a probability problem based on the ‘Let’s Make A Deal’ quiz show scenario. As the quiz contestant you are given the opportunity to select one closed door of three, behind one of which there is a car, while the other two doors hide goats. Once you have made your selection, the host (Monty Hall) will open one of the remaining doors, and reveal one of the goats. He then asks you if you would like to switch your selection to the other unopened door, or stay with your original choice.

Here is the problem: Does it matter if you switch?

For more details see montyhallproblem.com/

 

Apparatus:

A scale model of the ‘Monty Hall Show’ set was constructed using Lego.

Two model sheep were used as goat substitutes and a toy car (Luigi from ‘Cars’) was used as the prize item. Monty Hall and the contestant were played by Lego men.

 

Method:

Volunteers were recruited to play out the ‘Let’s Make A Deal’ quiz show and their decision to remain with their original choice or to change their selection was recorded along with the win/loose outcome.

 

Results:

The results of the experiment were as follows:

Number of games played: 20

Contestants remaining with original choice and winning: 5

Contestants remaining with original choice and loosing: 5

Contestants changing their original choice and winning: 8

Contestants changing their original choice and loosing: 2

 

Conclusion:

It is apparent that in this scenario the chances of you winning a car will improve if you accept the host’s offer to switch you choice. This is because your initial selection was made when you had a 1 in 3 probability of selecting the prize. Your second selection would be made when having a 1 in 2 probability of selecting the prize door and therefore a better chance of getting a car and not a goat.

 

Done