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Statistical Variance

RAF rescue helicopter

Dropping off one of the teams trying to find/reach the fallen boy on Mount Snowdon (Wales Friday 26/10). This is looking down from the Pyg Trail to the head of the Miners Track. It shows the conditions the rescuers had to contend with. At this point we still thought the whole process was an exercise. We had no idea that the drama was on the radio or television news.

It is an interesting insight into the perception of statistical variance.

We had a reference of one event on the mountain. First climb, helicopters everywhere. We have no real choice but to assume that this is likely to be normal, routine. A training event. The helicopter had been backwards and forwards several times to the point of this image. At no point did we consider that there had been an accident.

In retrospect, had we considered the possibility of a bad accident, we would not have considered it news-worthy. When did you last hear of an accident on Snowdon on the news? Never? When we met the team in this image half an hour later and we first learned of an accident we thought no different. If this is an accident, then it must be commonplace and not news-worthy.

We were wrong, and, of course, our families had heard the news and assumed the worst.

This is also an interesting insight into statistical variance

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Uploaded on October 28, 2007
Taken on October 26, 2007