CELLPHONE PHOTO BLOG 3-22-09

Moderate Risk........ www.spc.noaa.gov

 

...OKLAHOMA/KANSAS/NORTH TEXAS...

A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY

NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN

PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AN IMPRESSIVE 80 TO 100 KT

MID-LEVEL JET WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. SOUTH OF THE

AXIS OF THE JET...CONVECTION SHOULD NOT INITIATE THROUGH MUCH OF

MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN

GOOD AGREEMENT WEAKENING THE CAP AND RAPIDLY INITIATING STORMS

BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z ALONG THE INTERSTATE-35 CORRIDOR IN ERN KS WITH

THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING SSWWD INTO NRN AND CNTRL OK DURING THE

EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND

POSITION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL CERTAINTY

THAT A LARGE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NNE TO SSW

ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID-EVENING.

 

AS THE MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...VERTICAL

SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. BY

00Z TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING

FROM AROUND 50 KT IN NCNTRL KS TO ABOUT 75 KT IN SRN OK. IN

ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ALONG THE

INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR

SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE MOST INTENSE

STORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL FROM SE KS SSWWD ACROSS WCNTRL

OK WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IN NORTH TX. IN

ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL OK AND

SRN KS SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE SUGGESTING

TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. A FEW

STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE-35 CORRIDOR

ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE THROUGH THE EARLY

EVENING. IF A SQUALL-LINE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS BY EARLY EVENING...THEN

THE DOMINATE SEVERE THREATS WOULD LIKELY BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING STORM MODE...THE

POTENTIAL FOR A CONCENTRATED AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WARRANTS A

MODERATE RISK FROM ERN KS SSWWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL OK.

 

Done