I’m Trying To Figure The Situation Out
Tariff Truths: Massive headlines about 245% tariffs exaggerate inflation fears—actual price impacts are far smaller (around 3-5.6% max), not an economic apocalypse.
Inflation Reality Check: Real-time inflation is 1.3%, and statistically analyzed simulations indicate that consumer fears of 6.7% inflation are significantly overstated (odds: 1 in 4,299).
Recession Risks Clarified: Yes, recession odds are elevated, but a repeat of the Great Recession is exceedingly rare (1 in 3,438).
Market Crash Probabilities: Historical context and rigorous analysis suggest only modest further declines (median scenario: a 11.6% increase in downside risk).
Big tech is 11% undervalued with double-digit growth. For those worried about a permanent decline in American exceptionalism, foreign blue chips like British American offer a very low-risk 7% yield with nearly 50% upside potential in the next year.
Fact 1: What You Need To Know About Inflation
x
Truflation
Here is the real-time inflation data, based on 30 million daily prices, which stands at 1.36%, a slight decrease from the previous month.
x
Truflation
As you can see in the above chart, when tariffs first started going up on February 4th, real-time inflation was 2.19% and is now down.
Ford (F) and LVMH have announced prices will start rising in May, so that might explain the lack of price increases so far.
What about inflation expectations for the future? We've seen how consumers are worried about nearly 7% inflation (and those expectations are likely to rise due to headlines like these).
x
Google News
The average American doesn't know how tariffs work, of that a 10% tariff usually only converts to a 4% price increase (because the tariff is on the port of entry and 60% of the value of imported products tends to be in the rest of the supply chain).
In other words, "245% tariffs on China" are not the same as "products on Chinese goods will increase by 245%"; for several reasons.
First, the 245% is the peak tariff on some items (like Syringes), but not on others (batteries are 167%).
29% of goods (technology) are still excempt so the weighted China tariff is 175%.
This means the global weighted tariff rises from 22.5% to 29.8%, reverting to the 30% estimate Bloomberg Economics provided on April 9th, known as the "Pause day".
The rule of thumb is that each 1% increase in tariffs raises prices by around 0.1% (because imports account for 11% of GDP) and results in 0.1% slower GDP growth.
Implying a final CPI inflation increase of 3% to 5.6%.
Truflation up to 4.4%
With a growth headwind of 3% and a 0.3% GDP headwind from adverse wealth effects.
A $8 trillion decline in US stocks equals approximately $110 billion in lower retail spending, according to Moody's.
That's approximately a 3.3% GDP impact, in an overly simplified model.
The global economy is 8.33 billion economic entities making 28 trillion daily decisions, so no model is even close to comprehensive.
OK, but what about the best long-term inflation forecaster, the bond market? That $36 trillion liquid "risk-free" market that serves as the basis of global finance?
Statistically Adjusted CPI Inflation Rates Over The Next Year
1. The consensus tariff shock (+0.8 – 1.5 ppt midpoint).2. Major‑bank forecast dispersion (Goldman, MS, Oxford).3. Historical CPI volatility (σ ≈ 1.2 ppt).
I’m Trying To Figure The Situation Out
Tariff Truths: Massive headlines about 245% tariffs exaggerate inflation fears—actual price impacts are far smaller (around 3-5.6% max), not an economic apocalypse.
Inflation Reality Check: Real-time inflation is 1.3%, and statistically analyzed simulations indicate that consumer fears of 6.7% inflation are significantly overstated (odds: 1 in 4,299).
Recession Risks Clarified: Yes, recession odds are elevated, but a repeat of the Great Recession is exceedingly rare (1 in 3,438).
Market Crash Probabilities: Historical context and rigorous analysis suggest only modest further declines (median scenario: a 11.6% increase in downside risk).
Big tech is 11% undervalued with double-digit growth. For those worried about a permanent decline in American exceptionalism, foreign blue chips like British American offer a very low-risk 7% yield with nearly 50% upside potential in the next year.
Fact 1: What You Need To Know About Inflation
x
Truflation
Here is the real-time inflation data, based on 30 million daily prices, which stands at 1.36%, a slight decrease from the previous month.
x
Truflation
As you can see in the above chart, when tariffs first started going up on February 4th, real-time inflation was 2.19% and is now down.
Ford (F) and LVMH have announced prices will start rising in May, so that might explain the lack of price increases so far.
What about inflation expectations for the future? We've seen how consumers are worried about nearly 7% inflation (and those expectations are likely to rise due to headlines like these).
x
Google News
The average American doesn't know how tariffs work, of that a 10% tariff usually only converts to a 4% price increase (because the tariff is on the port of entry and 60% of the value of imported products tends to be in the rest of the supply chain).
In other words, "245% tariffs on China" are not the same as "products on Chinese goods will increase by 245%"; for several reasons.
First, the 245% is the peak tariff on some items (like Syringes), but not on others (batteries are 167%).
29% of goods (technology) are still excempt so the weighted China tariff is 175%.
This means the global weighted tariff rises from 22.5% to 29.8%, reverting to the 30% estimate Bloomberg Economics provided on April 9th, known as the "Pause day".
The rule of thumb is that each 1% increase in tariffs raises prices by around 0.1% (because imports account for 11% of GDP) and results in 0.1% slower GDP growth.
Implying a final CPI inflation increase of 3% to 5.6%.
Truflation up to 4.4%
With a growth headwind of 3% and a 0.3% GDP headwind from adverse wealth effects.
A $8 trillion decline in US stocks equals approximately $110 billion in lower retail spending, according to Moody's.
That's approximately a 3.3% GDP impact, in an overly simplified model.
The global economy is 8.33 billion economic entities making 28 trillion daily decisions, so no model is even close to comprehensive.
OK, but what about the best long-term inflation forecaster, the bond market? That $36 trillion liquid "risk-free" market that serves as the basis of global finance?
Statistically Adjusted CPI Inflation Rates Over The Next Year
1. The consensus tariff shock (+0.8 – 1.5 ppt midpoint).2. Major‑bank forecast dispersion (Goldman, MS, Oxford).3. Historical CPI volatility (σ ≈ 1.2 ppt).