Lunar Phases!?

Lunar phases are an interesting market anomaly

Best time to buy is around the new moon and best time to sell is around the full moon.

Cause of this effect? Most of the literature claims the cause of the effect is "depressed mood at full moon"

Maybe from an evolutionary perspective fear is at its peak when the night sky is darkest?

 

RSI might be able to capture similar overbought/oversold conditions without being rigid on the exact timing.

A few papers has been published on this:

www.bus.umich.edu/pdf/mitsui/workshopdocs/ZhengMoonstruck...

 

www.theidiotandthemoon.com/moontrading.html

 

Research on this effect in the Indian markets indicates that

the effect is significant for nifty/energy but not statistically significant for banks/realty/finance. Apparently tech/pharma weren't tested in this paper.

www.ijarcsms.com/docs/paper/volume2/issue2/V2I2-0022.pdf

 

This AFL is straight from the AFL library.

No idea whether this effect will persist. Haven't traded this particular effect.

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Uploaded on January 6, 2015