UnprobableView
essential earth
The industrial revolution opened the door to unprecedent economic growth. This was only possible through a massive exploitation of natural resources, including the atmosphere in which CO2 and other pollutants have been released without control until recently. As a result of such trajectory mass consumption started to disseminate around the globe. Over the last 20 years alone the rise of the emerging economies and the concurrent growth in the developed world has duplicated the consumption load on Planet Earth. A linear projection suggests that if this growth path extends into the future, world consumption will duplicate again before 2030 and triplicate by 2040. The challenges brought by this rising consumption in terms of resources exhaustion are so formidable that no one can anticipate whether proper answers will be found. Metaphorically, one may say that Thomas Malthus’s ghost seems to be back haunting the world.
However, what the past has taught us is that every time humans were confronted with formidable challenges (such as with the black death epidemics in Europe) they were able to bring back their societies more or less to the previous status moving further ahead afterwards.
In short, more often than not, gloomy Malthusian views tend to be overcome by practical solutions. This indicates that human inventiveness will probably generate once more innovations to counter many of the current problems. New innovations are already being developed to offer cleaner energies and products based on alternative materials. But one thing seems certain: there is no simple fix for the problems we are dealing with. Innovation will need to go much beyond the mere advancement of science and technology. Given the complexity and size of the challenges we are facing, radical institutional innovation will probably be needed to overcome them.
essential earth
The industrial revolution opened the door to unprecedent economic growth. This was only possible through a massive exploitation of natural resources, including the atmosphere in which CO2 and other pollutants have been released without control until recently. As a result of such trajectory mass consumption started to disseminate around the globe. Over the last 20 years alone the rise of the emerging economies and the concurrent growth in the developed world has duplicated the consumption load on Planet Earth. A linear projection suggests that if this growth path extends into the future, world consumption will duplicate again before 2030 and triplicate by 2040. The challenges brought by this rising consumption in terms of resources exhaustion are so formidable that no one can anticipate whether proper answers will be found. Metaphorically, one may say that Thomas Malthus’s ghost seems to be back haunting the world.
However, what the past has taught us is that every time humans were confronted with formidable challenges (such as with the black death epidemics in Europe) they were able to bring back their societies more or less to the previous status moving further ahead afterwards.
In short, more often than not, gloomy Malthusian views tend to be overcome by practical solutions. This indicates that human inventiveness will probably generate once more innovations to counter many of the current problems. New innovations are already being developed to offer cleaner energies and products based on alternative materials. But one thing seems certain: there is no simple fix for the problems we are dealing with. Innovation will need to go much beyond the mere advancement of science and technology. Given the complexity and size of the challenges we are facing, radical institutional innovation will probably be needed to overcome them.