Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030
The Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030, v1 (2000-2030) data set presents spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change from 2000 to 2030 and is part of the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) collection. For each grid cell that is non-urban in 2000, a Monte-Carlo model assigned a probability of becoming urban by the year 2030. The authors first extracted urban extent circa 2000 from the NASA MODIS Land Cover Type Product v5, then used population densities from the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) to create a population density driver map. Next, using the present empirical distribution of regional urban population densities along with the probability density functions of projected regional population and GDP values for 2030, new urban land in each region by 2030 was estimated in a Monte-Carlo fashion. See more information at dx.doi.org/10.7927/H4Z899CG.
Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030
The Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030, v1 (2000-2030) data set presents spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change from 2000 to 2030 and is part of the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) collection. For each grid cell that is non-urban in 2000, a Monte-Carlo model assigned a probability of becoming urban by the year 2030. The authors first extracted urban extent circa 2000 from the NASA MODIS Land Cover Type Product v5, then used population densities from the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) to create a population density driver map. Next, using the present empirical distribution of regional urban population densities along with the probability density functions of projected regional population and GDP values for 2030, new urban land in each region by 2030 was estimated in a Monte-Carlo fashion. See more information at dx.doi.org/10.7927/H4Z899CG.