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Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 1 Sept through 29 Dec 2010 observed, forecast through 13 Jan 2011
Left hand side top, observed Arctic Oscillation (AO) from 1 Sept 2010 through 29 Dec 2010, normalized by standard deviation so that 67% of values should lie between plus and minus 1. Forecasts from the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System, which takes into account uncertainty in the forecast, is shown with the red lines, one for each forecast realization. Second, third, and fourth panels on the left are for 7, 10, and 14 day forecasts for the AO with confidence bands (yellow shading enclosed by gray lines), the mean forecast (blue line), and the verification (bold black line). The value in the upper left gives the observed, 7 day, 10 day, and 14 day forecasts for the AO from top to bottom panels. On the right in the 2nd through 4th panels is the correlation between forecast and observed AO index.
Right hand side, same but for North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 1 Sept through 29 Dec 2010 observed, forecast through 13 Jan 2011
Left hand side top, observed Arctic Oscillation (AO) from 1 Sept 2010 through 29 Dec 2010, normalized by standard deviation so that 67% of values should lie between plus and minus 1. Forecasts from the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System, which takes into account uncertainty in the forecast, is shown with the red lines, one for each forecast realization. Second, third, and fourth panels on the left are for 7, 10, and 14 day forecasts for the AO with confidence bands (yellow shading enclosed by gray lines), the mean forecast (blue line), and the verification (bold black line). The value in the upper left gives the observed, 7 day, 10 day, and 14 day forecasts for the AO from top to bottom panels. On the right in the 2nd through 4th panels is the correlation between forecast and observed AO index.
Right hand side, same but for North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).