Bayes Lotus

Bayes theorem gives a mathematical way to evaluate the likelihood of a hypothesis on the basis of particular evidence. More precisely, the probability of A given B equals the probability of B given A multiplied by the probability of A divided by the probability of B. Bayesian apparatus seems to account for behaviour from implicit animal cognition all the way to reflective knowledge. Thus, a bayesian approach may help explain the iterative nature of metacognition. But, can Bayesian models do all the work of human understanding and higher thought? Bayesian operations seem incommensurate with some metacognitive functions. If so, what else is there?

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