Global Packaging Trends

According to Canadean's latest research, the global volume for packaging units is 3.576 trillion in 2015. By 2018, this figure is expected to reach 4.029 trillion units, at a 12% increase in total volume.

The largest global volume areas are flexible packaging at 36%; paper and board at 24%; and rigid plastics at 20%, with the largest markets in order being food (40%), soft drinks (26%) and tobacco (12%). These positions and percentages are anticipated to remain in place through the next few years at least.

In the current market, the biggest global volumes are for cigarettes, with 364.38 billion units; household paper products at 263.44 billion; and white milk at 220.40 billion. Lager and carbonates are just behind in volume. The largest pack type by volume of use are bags/sachets (875.59 billion), bottles (810.32 billion) and shipping boxes (412.95 billion).

 

In Europe

Overall, European countries are set to experience consistent growth of around 2.1% CAGR between 2014-18, reaching a total of 1.043 trillion packs in 2018.

Flexible packaging and rigid plastics dominate the European packaging market, accounting for 62% of the total packaging market as of 2015 and driven by demand in the food sector.

Flexible packaging will increase steadily, reaching a total of 373.56 billion packs in 2018. The food sector, in particular bakery and cereals, will drive the growth for flexible packaging in Europe. Russia will remain the major consumer of flexible packaging throughout 2014-2018, registering a CAGR of 6.28%.

The food industry accounts for 80.90% of flexible packaging market in 2015 and will continue to drive demand to 2018, with increased demand from Russia, the UK and Germany. In end-market terms, bakery and cereals will account for 36.90% of the total European flexible packaging demand by 2018.

Bag/sachet is the most widely used flexible packaging type, accounting for 65.80% of the total flexible packaging demand in 2014, followed by film.

Paper and board packaging has seen fluctuations in its growth rate, driven by changing demand patterns from food and tobacco products. However, the demand for paper and board packaging will continue to increase at a slow pace to 2018. Russia will remain the most predominant end user of paper and board units, registering the highest CAGR of 1.97% over the 2014-18 period. Turkey and Germany are the next largest markets for the paper and board packaging industry.

Demand for rigid plastics packs in Europe is forecast to increase at a steady rate, reaching 292.87 billion packs by 2018. Annual growth will accelerate between 2014 and 2018, at a rate ranging between 2.19 and 2.61%, as demand from the food and soft-drinks sectors remains strong. The dairy food sector in the food market and soft (standard) in soft drinks will drive the overall growth of the rigid plastics packaging market. The major consumer of rigid plastics packaging is Germany, which is forecast to reach 37.68 billion units in 2018, registering a CAGR of 1.38%.

The food sector is the largest end-use market for rigid plastics, and is forecast to reach 164.73 billion units in 2018, with a 56.20% share of the total rigid plastics packaging market. Dairy food will account for 24.70% of the total European market in 2018. Germany and Russia are major markets for rigid plastics, with both holding a share of 13.4% of the total European rigid plastics packaging market, each.

Rigid plastics bottles will remain the most consumed pack type in European countries, expected to account for 42.50% of the total rigid plastics packaging market by 2018.

Demand for rigid metal packs in European countries will register moderate growth to 2018 varying from 1.44 to 1.88%. The UK will remain the largest consumer of rigid metal packs while Bulgaria will register the highest CAGR, at 12.08%, to 2018.

Lastly, driven by its decreased use in the beer, cider and soft-drinks industries, glass is expected to hold or slightly decrease by about 0.27%. Beer will remain the largest user of glass packaging, accounting for 22.70% of the total glass packs to be used by European countries in 2018. Currently, 61.70% of the market is held by the beer, cider and food markets, but driven by diminished demand, the overall number of packs is expected to reduce in glass as alternative packaging formats are increasingly used. Despite this, demand in the food sector is experiencing growth, predominantly due to an increase in demand from seasonings, dressings and sauces.

 

The Americas

Flexible packaging and rigid plastics together will continue to dominate the Americas packaging market, accounting for 61.20% of the total packaging market by 2016. This is driven by demand from the food market for flexible packaging, followed by demand for rigid plastics from the food and non-alcoholic drinks markets. The use of bottles will increase the most, followed by bags/sachets. The increased use of bottles will be driven by rising demand for rigid plastics in the non-alcoholic drinks industry, in particular soft drinks, and the significant demand for glass bottles in the alcoholic drinks industry. Bottles and bags/sachets together held 48% of the total packaging types used in the Americas in 2015. In contrast, drinks cans will see falling demand, resulting in a drop of 505 million packs by 2016.

The number of flexible packs used in the Americas will increase consistently as demand from the food sector remains strong. As in Europe, dairy, food, and bakery and cereals will drive the growth for flexible packaging in the Americas. The US will remain the major consumption market for flexible packaging through to 2017, registering a CAGR of 2.04%, while Chile and Brazil will have the highest CAGR of 5.35% and 4.59% respectively. The food market, which accounts for 71.70% of all flexible packaging, will remain the major end user, and will continue to drive the demand due to an increased need for bakery and cereals, and savoury snacks. Bakery and cereals will create an additional demand for 7.37 billion packs by 2016.

The demand for paper and board packaging will continue to grow, driven by growth in the food and tobacco products markets. Demand in the food market will increase steadily and is forecast to reach 65.84 billion units in 2016. The US will remain the largest end user of paper and board throughout. Brazil and Mexico are the next largest markets for the paper and board packaging industry and are forecast to register the highest CAGRs of 6.60% and 4.46% respectively to 2017.

Total demand for paper and board packaging in the Americas is expected to reach 128.61 billion units by 2016. Food and tobacco products are the major markets driving demand for paper and board packs, with the former consuming 49.70% of the total paper and board. Demand from the food market will be influenced primarily by the dairy food sector.

Boxes and cartons are the major paper and board packaging types, and together they accounted for 75.40% of all paper and board packs used. Boxes are the most commonly used pack type accounting for 44.70% of the total packs. Carton will witness the largest increase in the number of packs due to its increased use in the dairy food and soft-drinks sectors. Boxes are forecast to witness slower growth impacted by slowing demand from cigarettes, currently accounting for 59.40% of total boxes.

The number of rigid plastic packs used in the Americas will increase steadily, reaching 281.93 billion units by 2016. This growth is driven by the increase in demand from the food market (in particular dairy food) and non-alcoholic drinks (in particular soft drinks), which collectively accounted for 87.30%. The US remains the largest consumer by volume with 143.87 billion units anticipated by 2016. Peru and Brazil will register the highest CAGRs of 5.74% and 4.70% respectively.

In the Americas, the US and Brazil are the major markets for rigid plastics, representing 70% of the total rigid plastics packs. Demand for rigid plastic bottles and tubs will increase rapidly, driven by soft drinks and dairy food. Bottles and tubs will remain the most widely used rigid plastics packaging type together accounting for 74.30%. Demand for rigid plastics will rise as they replace materials such as metal and glass in the food and non-alcoholic markets, due to lower costs and lighter weights. The next most popular packaging type, trays, will also witness an increase in demand influenced by growing use from meat, chilled and deli foods, and bakery and cereals.

The growth for rigid metal packaging in the Americas is largely driven by the non-alcoholic and alcoholic drinks markets, which together accounted for 69.50%. Demand for rigid metal packaging will increase by 4.35 billion more units by 2016; however, this is much lower than in flexible packaging and rigid plastics. The US will remain the largest consumer of rigid metal packs, while Brazil and Argentina will register the highest CAGR of 6.72% and 4.43% respectively over the same period.

A significant share of the metal packaging demand in food will be driven by dairy foods, especially milk. The non-alcoholic drinks market, which held the largest share (50.30%) has witnessed a decline at a CAGR of -0.59%, largely impacted by substitutions to rigid plastics and flexible packaging formats.

The annual growth in demand for glass packaging will grow 2.54% into 2016. The increase in the use of glass packaging is mainly a consequence of increased demand from the alcoholic drinks sector. The US will remain the largest consumer of glass packaging with a share of 32.2% of total by 2016, while Brazil, the US and Mexico will witness the largest increase in volume.

The alcoholic and non-alcoholic markets together account for 79.80% of total glass packaging used. The food market currently consumes 18.30% and is expected to increase to 19.10% by 2016, driven largely by stronger demand from the seasonings, dressings and sauces sectors.

 

Asia-Pacific

The Asia-Pacific packaging market continues to enjoy strong growth. The number of packs is expected to rise by a CAGR of 5.72% over the 2014-18 period.

Paper and board packs will register a CAGR of 4% between 2014 and 2018. Demand for tobacco and tobacco products is increasing due to rising smoking levels. China will remain the largest paper and board packaging market while Indonesia will register the highest CAGR of 4.77% to 2018. China and India will register the next fastest growth rates, growing at CAGRs of 4.52% and 4.38% respectively.

The tobacco and tobacco products, and soft-drinks markets together accounted for 84.20% of the paper and board market in 2014. Tobacco will continue to drive growth due to increased smoking rates. Paper packs in the soft-drinks market is forecast to increase by 25.65 billion units by 2018, largely driven by increased demand from the soft-drinks sector. In materials dynamics, box and carton are the lead types at 83.20%, followed by wrappers and clamshell. Box is driven by the tobacco market while carton is pushing the soft-drinks sector usage.

Flexible packaging will witness strong growth reaching a total of 682.56 billion packs in 2018. China will remain the main consumer of flexible packaging throughout 2014-18, while India will register the highest CAGR of 8.62% in the same period. Food, specifically bakery and cereals, will be the largest market by use. Demand from the household will also increase due to greater requests from household paper products.

Rigid plastics are expected to reach 370.58 billion units by 2018, with accelerated growth across food and soft drinks mainly responsible. China is the main user of rigid plastics and is forecast to reach 206.27 billion units in 2018.

Soft drinks is forecast to use 210.05 billion units in 2018, translating to a 56.70% share of the total rigid plastics packaging market. The food market is also a significant end user with 36.80%. Dairy food, and bakery and cereals within the food market will drive the growth of rigid plastics packaging, together accounting for 16.6% in 2018.

Demand for rigid metal packaging is largely driven by growth in the soft-drinks market and will increase by 21.90 billion units between 2014 and 2018. The increasing competition from other materials has limited the need for rigid metal packaging. Of the Asia-Pacific countries, China will remain the largest consumer, accounting for a 39.20% share in 2015. India will register the highest growth with a CAGR of 13.46%.

The soft-drinks market holds a 54.00% share and will register a CAGR of 7.10% over the 2014-18 period, largely due to the increasing demand in the juice category. Food is the second-largest market for rigid metal packs in the Asia-Pacific region, accounting for 18.4% of overall consumption. The above average growth in demand for rigid metal packs in the food market means that it will reach 18.57 billion units in 2018. The fish and seafood, fruit and vegetables, and meat sectors will largely drive the growth of rigid metal packaging in the food market.

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